Morphological analysis orgeneral morphological analysis is a method for exploring possible solutions to a multi-dimensional, non-quantified complex problem. It was developed by Swiss astronomerFritz Zwicky.[1] General morphology has found use in fields includingengineering design,technological forecasting,organizational development and policy analysis.[2]
General morphology was developed by Fritz Zwicky, the Bulgarian-born, Swiss-nationalastrophysicist based at theCalifornia Institute of Technology. Among others, Zwicky applied morphological analysis to astronomical studies and jet androcket propulsion systems. As a problem-structuring andproblem-solving technique, morphological analysis was designed for multi-dimensional, non-quantifiable problems where causal modelling and simulation do not function well, or at all.
Zwicky developed this approach to address seemingly non-reducible complexity: using the technique ofcross-consistency assessment (CCA),[1] the system allows for reduction by identifying the possible solutions that actually exist, eliminating the illogical solution combinations in a grid box (sometimes called amorphological box) rather than reducing the number of variables involved.[3]
An example morphological box illustrating the attributes of different types of bread
Problems that involve many governing factors, where most of them cannot be expressed numerically can be well suited for morphological analysis.
The conventional approach is to break a complex system into parts, isolate the parts (dropping the 'trivial' elements) whose contributions are critical to the output and solve the simplified system for desired scenarios. The disadvantage of this method is that many real-world phenomena do not have obviously trivial elements and cannot be simplified.
Morphological analysis works backwards from the output towards the system internals without a simplification step.[4] The system's interactions are fully accounted for in the analysis.
Robert A. Heinlein has his characters use a "Zwicky box" inTime Enough for Love, to figure out what's available to break the ennui of his 2000-year-old character.
David Brin used "Zwicky Choice Boxes" inSundiver as a means to help solve a murder mystery.
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Duczynski, Guy (January 2018). "Investigating traffic congestion: Targeting technological and social interdependencies through general morphological analysis".Technological Forecasting and Social Change.126:161–167.doi:10.1016/j.techfore.2017.05.019.ISSN0040-1625.
Levin, Mark Sh. (2014-09-06), "Modular Systems, Combinatorial Engineering Frameworks",Modular System Design and Evaluation, Decision Engineering, Springer International Publishing, pp. 1–10,doi:10.1007/978-3-319-09876-0_1,ISBN9783319098753
Ritchey, Tom (2011), "Modelling Complex Policy Issues with Morphological Analysis",Wicked Problems – Social Messes, Springer Berlin Heidelberg, pp. 31–37,doi:10.1007/978-3-642-19653-9_4,ISBN9783642196522
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Zwicky, Fritz; Page, T. (1969-03-21). "Discovery, Invention, Research, through the Morphological Approach".Science.163 (3873). New York: Macmillan:1317–1318.doi:10.1126/science.163.3873.1317.ISSN0036-8075.
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