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2012 United States presidential election in Missouri

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Main article:2012 United States presidential election
2012 United States presidential election in Missouri

← 2008November 6, 20122016 →
 
NomineeMitt RomneyBarack Obama
PartyRepublicanDemocratic
Home stateMassachusettsIllinois
Running matePaul RyanJoe Biden
Electoral vote100
Popular vote1,482,4401,223,796
Percentage53.64%44.28%

County results
Congressional district results

Romney

  50–60%
  60–70%
  70–80%

Obama

  50–60%
  70–80%
  80–90%


President before election

Barack Obama
Democratic

Elected President

Barack Obama
Democratic

Elections in Missouri
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The2012 United States presidential election in Missouri took place on November 6, 2012, as part of the2012 United States presidential election, in which all 50 states plus theDistrict of Columbia participated. Missouri voters chose 10 electors to represent them in theElectoral College via a popular vote pittingincumbentDemocraticPresidentBarack Obama and his running mate,Vice PresidentJoe Biden, againstRepublican challenger and formerMassachusetts GovernorMitt Romney and his running mate,CongressmanPaul Ryan.

Missouri was won by Romney, who took 53.64% of the vote to Obama's 44.28%, a margin of 9.36%. Although it was abattleground in past elections, and considered abellwether up until2008, Missouri trended in the early 21st century toward the Republicans, having been the only long-timeswing state to be won (albeit narrowly) by RepublicanJohn McCain in2008. Consequently, the state was not heavily contested by either side in 2012, and Romney ultimately carried Missouri by the largest margin sinceRonald Reagan's1984 landslide. Romney ultimately became only the second Republican to carry Missouri and lose the presidency just four years afterJohn McCain's narrow victory in the state, with Obama also becoming the only Democrat to ever win two terms in the White House without carrying the state either time. The election was the last in which Missouri was considered to be a swing state.

Primary elections

[edit]

Democratic primary

[edit]
Missouri Democratic primary, February 7, 2012
CandidateVotesPercentageDelegates
Barack Obama(incumbent)64,36688.39%89
Randall Terry1,9982.74%-
John Wolfe Jr.1,0001.37%-
Darcy Richardson8731.20%-
Uncommitted4,5806.29%-

Republican primary

[edit]
2012Missouri Republican presidential primary

← 2008February 7, 2012 (2012-02-07)2016 →
← CO
MN →
 
CandidateRick SantorumMitt RomneyRon Paul
Home statePennsylvaniaMassachusettsTexas
Popular vote139,27263,88230,647
Percentage55.23%25.33%12.15%

Missouri results by county
  Rick Santorum

The 2012 Missouri Republican presidential primary took place on February 7[1] and the caucuses ran from March 15 to March 24, 2012,[2] except for one rescheduled for April 10. The primary election did not determine which delegates would be sent to thenational convention; this is instead determined indirectly by the caucuses and directly by the Missouri Republican congressional-district conventions on April 21 and the state convention on June 2.[3][4][5]

The unusual situation of having both the primary election and the caucus for the same party in the same election year in Missouri arose as a result of a change in the nominating rules of the Republican Party. State primaries in Missouri were previously held in early February. In September 2008, theRepublican National Committee adopted a set of rules which included a provision that no states except Iowa, New Hampshire, South Carolina, and Nevada were allowed to begin the process of delegate selection (including binding primary elections) before the first Tuesday in March of an election year.[6] In 2011, the Republican-controlledMissouri General Assembly attempted to move the primary election to mid-March, but the bill was vetoed by Democratic GovernorJay Nixon because of a provision limiting his power to fill vacancies in statewide elected offices. In a compromise solution, it was decided that Republican primary election would be made non-binding and instead delegates would be nominated by separate caucuses in late March, a move estimated to cost the stateUS$7,000,000.[7]

This marks the first time since 1996 that Missouri Republicans used a caucus system to nominate delegates to theRepublican National Convention.[8]

Primary

[edit]

The primary was not to affect the selection of Missouri's delegates to the2012 Republican National Convention, so it had no official effect on the nomination and was widely described beforehand as a "beauty contest". However it was seen as an opportunity forRick Santorum to face off againstMitt Romney due to the absence ofNewt Gingrich, who missed the filing deadline[9] and was not on the ballot. Santorum was the only candidate to actively campaign in the state ahead of the primary.[10]

The primary election was won by Santorum, who also won theColorado andMinnesota Republican caucuses held that day.[11]

There were 326,438 total votes cast by party ballot[12] (including votes for Democratic, Libertarian and Constitution Party candidates),[13] a turnout of 7.99%[14] of 4,085,582 registered voters. Noting the low Republican turnout,NPR found voters apathetic because the primary was nonbinding.[15]

2012 Missouri Republican primary[16]
Candidate[12]VotesPercentage
Rick Santorum139,27255.23%
Mitt Romney63,88225.33%
Ron Paul30,64712.15%
Uncommitted9,8533.91%
Rick Perry2,4560.97%
Herman Cain2,3060.91%
Michele Bachmann1,6800.67%
Jon Huntsman1,0440.41%
Gary Johnson5360.21%
Michael J. Meehan3560.14%
Keith Drummond1530.06%
Totals252,185100.00%
Key:Withdrew prior to contest.

[17]

Caucuses

[edit]

The county caucuses elect delegates to congressional district conventions and the Missouri Republican Party state convention, which in turn elect 49 of Missouri's 52 delegates to thenational convention.[4][18] However, nostraw poll is released to indicate levels of support to the general public. According to the state party, "Caucus-goers will be voting for delegates, and with few exceptions, these delegates will not be bound to a particular candidate. Because there is no vote on candidate preference, neither the Missouri GOP nor any election authority will have or release any data regarding the 'winner' of the caucuses."[19]

Despite the nonbinding nature of the February primary, caucuses had the option to use its result as the basis for delegate allocation. Santorum was to appear personally at some caucuses, whichThe New York Times described as "part of the campaign's county-by-county strategy to try to outflank Mr. Romney and catch him in the delegate race".[20]

Results
[edit]

The county caucuses elect delegates to the congressional district conventions and the state convention. Delegates to the national convention are elected at each of those conventions. Typically, the body of a caucus votes on slates of delegates prepared by leaders of factions and coalitions within the caucus.

The following table shows who won the majority or plurality of delegates for each county according to available unofficial reports.

Election results by county.Dark green indicates counties won by Santorum,gold, those won by Paul,orange indicates those won by Romney, andpurple, Gingrich. The counties indicated inblack areBarry County andLaclede County, in which Romney/Santorum and Paul/Santorum respectively tied for the win.Dark gray indicates uncommitted counties.
By number of counties won
[edit]
CandidateCounties
Rick Santorum83
Mitt Romney17
Ron Paul11
Newt Gingrich4
Uncommitted0
Unknown0
Total115
By county
[edit]
CountyWinnerDelegates[21]DistrictSource
AdairRomney96th
AndrewSantorum86th
AtchisonSantorum36th
AudrainSantorum74th
BarryRomney147th[22][23]
BartonSantorum74th
BatesSantorum74th
BentonSantorum94th
BollingerSantorum68th
BoonePaul534th[24][25][26]
BuchananRomney286th[27][28]
ButlerSantorum178th
CaldwellRomney46th[29]
CallawayRomney173rd[30]
CamdenSantorum123rd[31]
Cape GirardeauSantorum368th[32]
CarrollSantorum56th
CarterSantorum38th[33]
CassSantorum434th[34]
CedarSantorum64th
CharitonSantorum46th[35]
ChristianSantorum377th[36]
ClarkSantorum36th
ClayRomney23+555th, 6th[37]
ClintonRomney96th[38]
ColeRomney353rd[26]
CooperSantorum84th
CrawfordSantorum98th
DadeSantorum54th
DallasRomney74th
DaviessSantorum46th
DeKalbSantorum56th
DentSantorum78th
DouglasPaul78th
DunklinSantorum118th
FranklinPaul403rd[26][39]
GasconadeSantorum73rd
GentrySantorum36th
GreenePaul1117th[26]
GrundyPaul56th
HarrisonRomney46th[40]
HenrySantorum94th
HickorySantorum54th
HoltSantorum36th
HowardSantorum44th
HowellSantorum168th
IronSantorum38th
JacksonPaul144+355th, 6th[41][42]
JasperSantorum467th[43]
JeffersonSantorum15+39+192nd, 3rd, 8th[44][45]
JohnsonSantorum184th
KnoxSantorum26th
LacledePaul164th
LafayetteRomney145th[46]
LawrenceSantorum177th[47]
LewisSantorum46th
LincolnSantorum193rd
LinnSantorum56th
LivingstonGingrich66th[48]
MaconSantorum76th
MadisonSantorum58th
MariesSantorum53rd
MarionSantorum126th
McDonaldSantorum87th
MercerSantorum26th
MillerRomney123rd[31]
MississippiSantorum58th
MoniteauSantorum74th
MonroeSantorum46th
MontgomerySantorum53rd
MorganSantorum84th
New MadridSantorum78th
NewtonSantorum267th[43]
NodawayPaul86th
OregonSantorum48th[49]
OsageSantorum83rd
OzarkSantorum58th[23]
PemiscotSantorum68th
PerryGingrich88th
PettisRomney164th[50]
PhelpsRomney178th[51]
PikeSantorum76th
PlatteGingrich356th
PolkSantorum137th
PulaskiSantorum144th
PutnamSantorum36th
RallsSantorum56th
RandolphRomney104th[52]
RaySantorum85th
ReynoldsSantorum38th
RipleySantorum58th
St. CharlesPaul59+882nd, 3rd[53]
St. ClairSantorum54th
St. FrancoisSantorum198th[54]
St. LouisRomney[a]67+2501st, 2nd[26][55]
Saint Louis (city)Paul361st[41][42]
Sainte GenevieveSantorum68th
SalineSantorum85th[56]
SchuylerSantorum26th
ScotlandSantorum26th
ScottSantorum178th
ShannonSantorum38th
ShelbySantorum46th
StoddardRomney148th[57]
StoneSantorum167th
SullivanSantorum36th
TaneyPaul227th[58]
TexasGingrich118th
VernonSantorum84th
WarrenSantorum133rd
WashingtonSantorum78th
WayneSantorum68th
WebsterSantorum11+44th, 7th
WorthSantorum26th
WrightSantorum98th

Notes

  1. ^A separate caucus was held in each township.

Controversies

[edit]

There were controversies surrounding the caucuses inClay[59] andCass counties.[60] The Missouri Republican Party ruled later that the slates of delegates elected at those caucuses were valid.[61] A do-over caucus was required inSt. Charles County after the first attempt disbanded over a rules dispute.[62] Controversy also arose at theJefferson County caucus, and a challenge was filed but later withdrawn.[63]

District and state conventions

[edit]

The following table shows who won the national delegates for each congressional district and statewide.

Convention results[64][65][66][67]
Candidate1st2nd3rd4th5th6th7th8thStateParty
leaders
Total
Mitt Romney1123011319031
Rick Santorum121001206013
Ron Paul10003000004
Newt Gingrich00000100001
Uncommitted00000000033
Total2425352

General election

[edit]

Predictions

[edit]
SourceRankingAs of
Huffington Post[68]TossupNovember 6, 2012
CNN[69]Safe RNovember 6, 2012
New York Times[70]Lean RNovember 6, 2012
Washington Post[71]Safe RNovember 6, 2012
RealClearPolitics[72]Lean RNovember 6, 2012
Sabato's Crystal Ball[73]Solid RNovember 5, 2012
FiveThirtyEight[74]Solid RNovember 6, 2012

Results

[edit]
2012 United States presidential election in Missouri[75]
PartyCandidateRunning mateVotesPercentageElectoral votes
RepublicanMitt RomneyPaul Ryan1,482,44053.64%10
DemocraticBarack Obama (incumbent)Joe Biden (incumbent)1,223,79644.28%0
LibertarianGary JohnsonJim Gray43,1511.57%0
ConstitutionVirgil GoodeJim Clymer7,9360.29%0
Totals2,757,323100.00%10

By county

[edit]
CountyMitt Romney
Republican
Barack Obama
Democratic
Various candidates
Other parties
MarginTotal
#%#%#%#%
Adair5,65155.81%4,21941.67%2562.52%1,43214.14%10,126
Andrew5,45765.42%2,64931.76%2352.82%2,80833.66%8,341
Atchison1,90270.21%75627.91%511.88%1,14642.30%2,709
Audrain6,18661.97%3,53935.45%2572.58%2,64726.52%9,982
Barry9,83271.22%3,66726.56%3072.22%6,16544.66%13,806
Barton4,41876.89%1,23021.41%981.70%3,18855.48%5,746
Bates5,02064.60%2,55732.90%1942.50%2,46331.70%7,771
Benton6,06966.28%2,92531.94%1631.78%3,14434.34%9,157
Bollinger4,09575.05%1,21322.23%1482.72%2,88252.82%5,456
Boone37,40447.10%39,84750.17%2,1712.73%-2,443-3.07%79,422
Buchanan18,66053.15%15,59444.42%8522.43%3,0668.73%35,106
Butler12,24872.52%4,36325.83%2781.65%7,88546.69%16,889
Caldwell2,72165.30%1,31231.49%1343.21%1,40933.81%4,167
Callaway11,74564.42%6,07133.30%4162.28%5,67431.12%18,232
Camden15,09268.55%6,45829.33%4652.12%8,63439.22%22,015
Cape Girardeau25,37070.81%9,72827.15%7312.04%15,64243.66%35,829
Carroll3,07271.38%1,15426.81%781.81%1,91844.57%4,304
Carter1,97870.67%75426.94%672.39%1,22443.73%2,799
Cass30,91262.95%17,04434.71%1,1482.34%13,86828.24%49,104
Cedar4,37672.39%1,53725.43%1322.18%2,83946.96%6,045
Chariton2,40262.86%1,33935.04%802.10%1,06327.82%3,821
Christian27,47372.37%9,81325.85%6781.78%17,66046.52%37,964
Clark1,73053.64%1,39843.35%973.01%33210.29%3,225
Clay56,19152.99%47,31044.61%2,5422.40%8,8818.38%106,043
Clinton5,93160.15%3,68837.40%2422.45%2,24322.75%9,861
Cole24,49065.85%12,00532.28%6951.87%12,48533.57%37,190
Cooper4,88765.06%2,47432.94%1502.00%2,41332.12%7,511
Crawford6,43467.17%2,95130.81%1942.02%3,48336.36%9,579
Dade2,89574.31%93924.10%621.59%1,95650.21%3,896
Dallas4,99268.58%2,12229.15%1652.27%2,87039.43%7,279
Daviess2,29065.04%1,12531.95%1063.01%1,16533.09%3,521
DeKalb3,05670.25%1,19427.45%1002.30%1,86242.80%4,350
Dent4,88373.20%1,58523.76%2033.04%3,29849.44%6,671
Douglas4,64970.90%1,71026.08%1983.02%2,93944.82%6,557
Dunklin6,85064.31%3,63634.14%1651.55%3,21430.17%10,651
Franklin29,39662.64%16,34734.83%1,1862.53%13,04927.81%46,929
Gasconade4,89568.62%2,09929.42%1401.96%2,79639.20%7,134
Gentry1,98866.29%93731.24%742.47%1,05135.05%2,999
Greene76,90060.83%46,21936.56%3,3002.61%30,68124.27%126,419
Grundy3,03069.27%1,21227.71%1323.02%1,81841.56%4,374
Harrison2,62471.01%98426.63%872.36%1,64044.38%3,695
Henry6,22961.18%3,60635.42%3473.40%2,62325.76%10,182
Hickory2,83560.58%1,73337.03%1122.39%1,10223.55%4,680
Holt1,72574.68%55123.85%341.47%1,17450.83%2,310
Howard3,01761.99%1,72335.40%1272.61%1,29426.59%4,867
Howell11,54470.62%4,39526.89%4072.49%7,14943.73%16,346
Iron2,25255.87%1,66941.40%1102.73%58314.47%4,031
Jackson122,70839.32%183,95358.95%5,4001.73%-61,245-19.63%312,061
Jasper31,34969.33%12,80928.33%1,0602.34%18,54041.00%45,218
Jefferson53,97855.07%41,56442.40%2,4822.53%12,41412.67%98,024
Johnson12,76360.72%7,66736.47%5912.81%5,09624.25%21,021
Knox1,20561.57%69835.67%542.76%50725.90%1,957
Laclede10,93470.84%4,09326.52%4082.64%6,84144.32%15,435
Lafayette9,80361.79%5,65535.64%4082.57%4,14826.15%15,866
Lawrence11,42172.49%4,01725.50%3172.01%7,40446.99%15,755
Lewis2,67762.56%1,50835.24%942.20%1,16927.32%4,279
Lincoln14,33262.93%7,73433.96%7103.11%6,59828.97%22,776
Linn3,34460.25%2,04136.77%1652.98%1,30323.48%5,550
Livingston4,00666.17%1,90631.48%1422.35%2,10034.69%6,054
Macon4,70165.66%2,30932.25%1502.09%2,39233.41%7,160
Madison3,22765.46%1,58832.21%1152.33%1,63933.25%4,930
Maries3,16569.74%1,29928.62%741.64%1,86641.12%4,538
Marion7,92365.17%4,03133.16%2041.67%3,89232.01%12,158
McDonald5,69472.84%1,92024.56%2032.60%3,77448.28%7,817
Mercer1,25575.83%35321.33%472.84%90254.50%1,655
Miller8,09973.31%2,65124.00%2982.69%5,44849.31%11,048
Mississippi2,99760.91%1,85837.76%651.33%1,13923.15%4,920
Moniteau4,70473.01%1,60824.96%1312.03%3,09648.05%6,443
Monroe2,56463.20%1,39834.46%952.34%1,16628.74%4,057
Montgomery3,49065.31%1,74032.56%1142.13%1,75032.75%5,344
Morgan5,73365.99%2,77331.92%1822.09%2,96034.07%8,688
New Madrid4,28459.09%2,81438.81%1522.10%1,47020.28%7,250
Newton18,18172.17%6,42525.50%5872.33%11,75646.67%25,193
Nodaway5,59362.31%3,17235.34%2112.35%2,42126.97%8,976
Oregon2,88665.28%1,41932.10%1162.62%1,46733.18%4,421
Osage5,32977.02%1,47321.29%1171.69%3,85655.73%6,919
Ozark3,08069.17%1,26128.32%1122.51%1,81940.85%4,453
Pemiscot3,59856.80%2,67142.16%661.04%92714.64%6,335
Perry5,66970.98%2,18427.34%1341.68%3,48543.64%7,987
Pettis10,84263.13%5,90434.38%4292.49%4,93828.75%17,175
Phelps11,89565.05%5,79831.71%5933.24%6,09733.34%18,286
Pike4,57762.52%2,58235.27%1622.21%1,99527.25%7,321
Platte25,61856.04%19,17541.95%9172.01%6,44314.09%45,710
Polk9,25270.52%3,58027.29%2872.19%5,67243.23%13,119
Pulaski9,09267.00%4,19930.94%2802.06%4,89336.06%13,571
Putnam1,67372.46%58725.42%492.12%1,08647.04%2,309
Ralls3,23164.16%1,73634.47%691.37%1,49529.69%5,036
Randolph6,66766.84%3,03130.39%2772.77%3,63636.45%9,975
Ray5,81556.09%4,27541.24%2772.67%1,54014.85%10,367
Reynolds1,93160.31%1,15736.13%1143.56%77424.18%3,202
Ripley3,74371.12%1,39626.52%1242.36%2,34744.60%5,263
Saline5,10456.04%3,79041.61%2142.35%1,31414.43%9,108
Schuyler1,17460.55%69735.95%683.50%47724.60%1,939
Scotland1,24664.36%64333.21%472.43%60331.15%1,936
Scott11,62368.37%5,12230.13%2541.50%6,50138.24%16,999
Shannon2,26261.27%1,30235.27%1283.46%96026.00%3,692
Shelby2,18867.70%96629.89%782.41%1,22237.81%3,232
St. Charles110,78459.44%71,83838.55%3,7442.01%38,94620.89%186,366
St. Clair3,01965.26%1,46031.56%1473.18%1,55933.70%4,626
St. Francois13,24858.35%8,82938.89%6282.76%4,41919.46%22,705
St. Louis224,74242.39%297,09756.04%8,2771.57%-72,355-13.65%530,116
St. Louis City22,94315.93%118,78082.45%2,3431.62%-95,837-66.52%144,066
Ste. Genevieve4,05550.25%3,81347.25%2022.50%2423.00%8,070
Stoddard9,49673.81%3,15324.51%2171.68%6,34349.30%12,866
Stone11,78773.45%3,92324.45%3372.10%7,86449.00%16,047
Sullivan1,61062.04%90834.99%772.97%70227.05%2,595
Taney15,74672.44%5,47925.20%5132.36%10,26747.24%21,738
Texas7,61870.77%2,87126.67%2752.56%4,74744.10%10,764
Vernon5,75867.57%2,58030.28%1832.15%3,17837.29%8,521
Warren9,15062.35%5,21935.56%3072.09%3,93126.79%14,676
Washington5,07158.32%3,41739.30%2072.38%1,65419.02%8,695
Wayne3,79066.26%1,81331.70%1172.04%1,97734.56%5,720
Webster10,70869.10%4,40928.45%3792.45%6,29940.65%15,496
Worth66463.36%34132.54%434.10%32330.82%1,048
Wright5,83073.29%1,95324.55%1722.16%3,87748.74%7,955
Totals1,482,44053.64%1,223,79644.28%57,4532.08%258,6449.36%2,763,689
County flips:
Democratic
  Hold
Republican
  Hold
  Gain from Democratic
Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican

By congressional district

[edit]

Romney won six of eight congressional districts.[76]

DistrictRomneyObamaRepresentative
1st18.9%79.87%Lacy Clay
2nd57.14%41.44%Ann Wagner
3rd62%36%Blaine Luetkemeyer
4th61.24%36.41%Vicky Hartzler
5th39.36%58.9%Emanuel Cleaver
6th60%37.9%Sam Graves
7th67.56%30.34%Billy Long
8th65.88%32%Jo Ann Emerson

Analysis

[edit]

As of the2024 presidential election, this is the last time Missouri was decided by a single-digit margin. In addition, this was the first time since1900 that Missouri was not carried by the victor of the presidential contest two times consecutively, after Obama had failed to win the state in 2008, as well as the first time since 1900 when the overall loser of the presidential election won the state by a margin larger than 1% of the statewide vote. Thus, the 2012 election seemingly marked the end ofMissouri'sswing state status. Obama is the only president of either party sinceWilliam McKinley to win two terms in the White House without carrying Missouri either time. This election also remains the only time in history that a Democrat was elected twice to the presidency without ever carrying Missouri.

Obama became the first Democrat since1960 to win without Buchanan, Iron, and Washington counties; the first since1916 without Jefferson County; and the first since1944 without St. Genevieve County.

Obama carried only three counties and theCity of St. Louis. He carriedBoone County, home toColumbia and theUniversity of Missouri;Jackson County, where most ofKansas City is located; andSt. Louis County, home to manySt. Louis suburbs. While Obama won many counties in theSt. Louis metropolitan area in 2008 such asIron,Jefferson,Ste. Genevieve, andWashington counties, the Republicans won them in this election, all butSte. Genevieve by comfortable margins.[77]

See also

[edit]

References

[edit]
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  2. ^Lieb, David A. (March 18, 2012)."Contention, confusion common at Mo. GOP caucuses".News Tribune.Associated Press.Archived from the original on September 10, 2024.
  3. ^"2012 Primary Schedule « 2012 Election Central". 2012presidentialelectionnews.com. Archived fromthe original on January 6, 2012. RetrievedFebruary 8, 2012.
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