TheMinsk agreements were a series of international agreements which sought to end theDonbas war fought betweenarmed Russian separatist groups andArmed Forces of Ukraine, withRussian regular forces playing a central part.[1] After a defeat atIlovaisk at the end of August 2014, Russia forced Ukraine to sign the firstMinsk Protocol, or theMinsk I.[2] It was drafted by theTrilateral Contact Group on Ukraine, consisting of Ukraine,Russia, and theOrganization for Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE),[3][4] with mediation by the leaders ofFrance (François Hollande) andGermany (Angela Merkel) in the so-calledNormandy Format.
After extensive talks inMinsk,Belarus, the agreement was signed on 5 September 2014 by representatives of the Trilateral Contact Group and, without recognition of their status, by the then-leaders of the self-proclaimedDonetsk People's Republic (DPR) andLuhansk People's Republic (LPR). This agreement followed multiple previous attempts to stop the fighting in the region and aimed to implement an immediateceasefire.
The agreement failed to stop fighting.[5] At the start of January 2015, Russia sent another large batch of its regular military.[2] Following theRussian victory atDonetsk International Airport in defiance of the Protocol, Russia repeated its pattern of August 2014, invaded with fresh forces and attacked Ukrainian forces atDebaltseve, where Ukraine suffered a major defeat, and was forced to sign a Package of Measures for the Implementation of the Minsk Agreements, orMinsk II,[2] which was signed on 12 February 2015.[6] This agreement consisted of a package of measures, including a ceasefire, withdrawal of heavy weapons from the front line, release ofprisoners of war, constitutional reform in Ukraine granting self-government to certain areas of Donbas and restoring control of the state border to the Ukrainian government. While fighting subsided following the agreement's signing, it never ended completely, and the agreement's provisions were never fully implemented.[7] The former German Foreign MinisterFrank-Walter Steinmeier suggested a mechanism of granting an autonomy to Eastern Donbas only after "the OSCE certified that the local elections had followed international standards", called theSteinmeier formula.[8]
Amid rising tensions between Russia and Ukraine in early 2022, Russia officially recognised the DPR and LPR on 21 February 2022.[9] Following that decision, on 22 February 2022, Russian PresidentVladimir Putin declared that the Minsk agreements "no longer existed", and that Ukraine, not Russia, was to blame for their collapse.[10] Russia then launched a fullinvasion of Ukraine on 24 February 2022.[11]
In February 2014, the Russian military covertlyattacked and occupiedUkrainianCrimea. Protests and unreststarted in Eastern and Southern Ukraine, which researchers characterize as "unclear to what extent [they] were initiated by local dissatisfaction with the situation in Kyiv, and to what extent they were organized and supported from Russia".[12] In spring, "DPR" and "LPR" - twounrecognizedstatelets - were created in Ukrainian Donbas byRussian actors. There, the Kremlin government used some of its techniques it used before during the creation of separatist enclaves inMoldova andGeorgia. Russia then proceeded to establish the narrative and negotiation positionin order to trap the victims of Russian aggression and involve Western states in the logic of “frozen conflict” (Umland & Essen).[2]
In summer 2014, Ukraine launched acounter-offensive, during which it initially reclaimed large parts of lost territory. Russia had been sending special forces operatives, irregulars and small groups of regular Russian forces until late August 2014, when for the first time Russia engaged large numbers of unmarkedregular military forces to help its proxies in Donbas. After losing theBattle of Ilovaisk, Ukraine was forced to sign the Minsk Protocol, or Minsk I.[2]
| Protocol on the results of consultations of the Trilateral Contact Group with respect to the joint steps aimed at the implementation of the Peace Plan of the President of Ukraine, P. Poroshenko, and the initiatives of the President of Russia, V. Putin | |
|---|---|
| Context | War in Donbas |
| Signed | 5 September 2014 (2014-09-05) |
| Location | Minsk,Belarus |
| Expiry | 21 February 2022 (2022-02-21) |
| Mediators | |
| Original signatories | |
| Language | Russian |
By the end of August 2014, after defeating Ukraine at Ilovaisk,[2] Russia narrowly saved its Donbas proxies from defeat and used a show of force to cement their presence. The next step for Russia was to stabilize its control, while Ukraine wanted to prevent a military defeat. Western governments feared escalation.[13]
The Minsk Protocol was drawn up by theTrilateral Contact Group on Ukraine, which consisted of representatives from Ukraine,Russia, and theOSCE.[14] Meetings of the group, along with informal representatives of the breakawayDonetsk andLuhansk People's Republics, took place on 31 July, 26 August, 1 September, and 5 September 2014.
The text of the protocol consists of twelve points:[15]
The following representatives signed the document:[15]
Envoys of so-called DPR and LPR,Alexander Zakharchenko andIgor Plotnitsky, also signed the protocol, without "their self-declared functions" mentioned.[2][16]
In the two weeks after the Minsk Protocol was signed, there were frequent violations of the ceasefire by both parties to the conflict.[17][18] Talks continued inMinsk, and a follow-up to the Minsk Protocol was agreed to on 19 September 2014. This memorandum clarified the implementation of the Protocol. Amongst some of the peacemaking measures agreed to were:[17][19][20]
After the conclusion of Protocol and Memorandum, a fragile ceasefire was established. However, even although the agreement met Russian interests, the fighting has not stopped.[2] TheSecond Battle of Donetsk Airport broke out, and both parties continued to accuse each other of ceasefire violations.[5] In late October, DPR prime minister and Minsk Protocol signatoryAlexander Zakharchenko said that his forces would retake the territory they had lost to Ukrainian forces during aJuly 2014 offensive, and that DPR forces would be willing to wage "heavy battles" to do so.[5][21] Subsequently, Zakharchenko said that he had been misquoted, and that he had meant to say that these areas would be taken through "peaceful means".[22]
While campaigning in the lead-up to the2 November elections held by the DPR and LPR in violation of the Protocol, Zakharchenko said "These are historical times. We are creating a new country! It's an insane goal".[23] OSCE chairmanDidier Burkhalter confirmed that the elections ran "counter to the letter and spirit of the Minsk Protocol", and said that they would "further complicate its implementation".[24]
The Protocol and Memorandum did not stop the war in the east of Ukraine.[2] By January 2015, the Minsk Protocol ceasefire had completely collapsed.[25] Following theRussian victory atDonetsk International Airport in defiance of the Protocol, DPR spokesmanEduard Basurin said that "the Minsk Memorandum will not be considered in the form it was adopted".[26] Later in the day, DPR leader Alexander Zakharchenko said that the DPR "will not make any attempts at ceasefire talks any more", and that his forces were going to "attack right up to the borders of Donetsk region".[27]The New York Times said that the ceasefire had "all but vanished".[28] In January - February, Russia repeated its pattern of August 2014, invaded with fresh forces and attacked and defeated Ukrainian forces atDebaltseve, forcing Ukraine to sign a Package of Measures for the Implementation of the Minsk Agreements, or Minsk II.[2]
Amidst increasing violence in the combat zone, another round of Minsk talks was scheduled for 31 January.[29] Members of theTrilateral Contact Group travelled to Minsk to meet representatives of the DPR and LPR. The DPR and LPR signatories of the Protocol did not attend, and those representatives that did attend were not able to discuss the implementation of the Protocol or memorandum. These representatives asked for the revision of the Protocol and the memorandum. The meeting was adjourned with no result.[29]
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Successive attempts to resolve theongoing war in theDonbas region of Ukraine had seen no result by the start of February 2015.[30] While the Minsk Protocol of 5 September 2014 did significantly reduce fighting in the conflict zone for many months, minor skirmishes continued. At the start of January 2015, Russia sent another large batch of its regular military,[2] which together[citation needed] with separatist forces of theDonetsk People's Republic (DPR) andLuhansk People's Republic (LPR) began a new offensive on Ukrainian-controlled areas, resulting in the complete collapse of the Minsk Protocol ceasefire.[25]
After heavy fighting, DPR forcescaptured the symbolically importantDonetsk International Airport on 21 January, the last part of the city ofDonetsk that had been under Ukrainian control. Following this victory, Russian military[2] together[citation needed] with separatist forcespressed their offensive on the important railway and road junction ofDebaltseve in late January. This renewed heavy fighting caused significant concern in the international community. Ukraine suffered another "devastating" defeat.[2] French presidentFrançois Hollande and German chancellorAngela Merkel put forth a new peace plan on 7 February.[31][32]
The Franco-German plan, drawn up after talks with Ukrainian presidentPetro Poroshenko and Russian presidentVladimir Putin, was seen as a revival of the Minsk Protocol. President Hollande said that the plan was the "last chance" for resolution of the conflict.[31][32] The plan was put forth in response to American proposals to send armaments to the Ukrainian government, something that Chancellor Merkel said would only result in a worsening of the crisis.[31][33]
A summit to discuss the implementation of the Franco-German diplomatic plan was scheduled for 11 February at theIndependence Palace inMinsk, the capital ofBelarus. It was attended by Russian president Vladimir Putin, Ukrainian president Petro Poroshenko,German chancellor Angela Merkel, French president François Hollande, DPR leaderAlexander Zakharchenko, and LPR leaderIgor Plotnitsky. Negotiations went on overnight for sixteen hours, and were said to have been "very difficult" by theGerman foreign minister.[34][35]
Following the talks, it was announced on 12 February 2015 that the parties to the conflict had agreed to a new package of peacemaking measures, thePackage of Measures for the Implementation of the Minsk Agreements, which is commonly called Minsk II.[6][36][37][38] Some of the measures agreed to were anOSCE-observed unconditional ceasefire from 15 February, withdrawal of heavy weapons from the front line, release of prisoners of war, and constitutional reform in Ukraine.[39]
The full text of the agreement is as follows:[40][41]
The document was signed by:[40]
The new package, commonly referred to as "Minsk II", was criticised for being "highly complicated" and "extremely fragile", and for being very similar to the failed Minsk Protocol.[6][42][43]The New York Times reported that the plan had "included some tripwires", such as not demarcating control over the city ofDebaltseve, which was the site of the most fierce fighting at the time of the plan's drafting.[6][44] Following the Minsk talks, Chancellor Merkel, President Hollande, and President Poroshenko attended aEuropean Union (EU) summit inBrussels.[45]
At the summit, the Minsk participants briefed EU leaders about the talks. During the briefing, they said that President Putin had tried to delay the implementation of a ceasefire by ten days, so as to force Ukrainian troops inDebaltseve to surrender their positions. For his part, President Putin said that theDebaltseve defenders were encircled, and that the separatists expected them "to lay down their arms and cease resistance".[45]
Kommersant reporterAndrey Kolesnikov wrote that implementation of the ceasefire inDebaltseve hinged upon whether or not Ukrainian forces were truly encircled, "Above all, does it exist or not? Vladimir Putin insisted that it [the encirclement] exists and that if a cease-fire agreement is reached, it will be odd if it isn't violated: Those in thekettle will certainly try to get out of there; those who have boiled that kettle will try to collect the foam".[46]
US State Department spokeswomanJen Psaki said on 13 February that theRussian Armed Forces had actively deployed around Debaltseve to assist the separatists in forcing out Ukrainian troops prior to the start of the ceasefire, the 15 February. Russia denied this, and Russian government spokesmanDmitry Peskov said that Russia could not assist in the implementation of Minsk II because it was "not a participant" in the conflict.[47]
Right Sector leaderDmytro Yarosh said that he reserved the right to continue fighting, and that Minsk II was unconstitutional. He said that hisUkrainian Volunteer Corps would continue fighting "until complete liberation of Ukrainian lands from Russian occupants", and promised "death to Russian terrorist-occupiers".[48][49][50] DPR leaderAlexander Zakharchenko said that the ceasefire did not apply toDebaltseve, and that fighting would continue there.[51]
Though the fighting generally subsided after the ceasefire came into effect at 0:00EET on 15 February, skirmishes and shelling continued in several parts of the conflict zone.[52] Shelling and fighting atDebaltseve continued, as DPR leaderAlexander Zakharchenko said that the ceasefire did not apply to that area.[53] In the south of Donetsk Oblast, fighting between DPR forces and members of theAzov Battalion continued in villages nearMariupol.[53][54] By 16 February, Minsk II seemed on the verge of collapse.[55][56] Separatists continued a heavy assault on Debaltseve. Both sides said that they would not withdraw heavy weaponry as specified by the agreement whilst fighting in Debaltseve was ongoing.[57]Reuters described the ceasefire as "stillborn" in Debaltseve.[58] Ukrainian forces were forced to retreat from Debaltseve on 18 February, leaving separatist forces in control of the city.[59]
In the week after the fall of Debaltseve to pro-Russian forces, fighting in the conflict zone abated.[60] As of mid-February 2015 a Western journalist visiting Ukrainian side of the front line inAvdiivka reported massive incoming artillery barrages from the Russian side. Having visited cities held by separatist and Ukrainian forces, he reported that both sides placed heavy weapons and munitions in civilian areas.[61]
DPR and LPR forces began to withdraw artillery from the front lines as specified by Minsk II on 24 February, and Ukraine did so on 26 February. Ukraine reported that it had suffered no casualties during 24–26 February, something that had not occurred since early January 2015.[60][62]
Ukrainian defence ministerStepan Poltorak said on 8 June 2015 that over 100 soldiers and at least 50 civilians had been killed since Minsk II came into effect. According to him, pro-Russian forces had violated the truce more than 4,000 times.[63]
Theparliament of Ukraine approved a law on "special status" for Donbas on 17 March.[64] Russian foreign ministerSergei Lavrov said that the law was a "sharp departure from the Minsk agreements" because it demanded local elections under Ukrainian jurisdiction.[64] Representatives of the LPR and DPR said that the law was a "one-sided" modification of Minsk II, and that the agreement had been rendered void by this modification.[65] Despite this, representatives of the DPR and LPR continued to forward peace proposals to theTrilateral Contact Group on Ukraine.[66]
The law was also criticised by some Ukrainian politicians.Radical Party leaderOleh Lyashko said that the law was "a vote for de facto recognition of the Russian occupation in Donbas". Vice-parliamentary speakerAndriy Parubiy said that law was "not for Putin or the occupiers", but to showEurope that Ukraine was willing to adhere to Minsk II.
Later, in 2019, Ukraine's parliament voted to extend regulations giving limited self-rule to separatist-controlled eastern regions, a prerequisite for a deal to settle the five-year conflict there.[67]
While the2015 Ukrainian local elections had been scheduled for 25 October, DPR leaderAlexander Zakharchenko issued a decree on 2 July that ordered local DPR elections to be held on 18 October.[68] He said that this action was "in accordance with the Minsk agreements".[69] According to Zakharchenko, this move meant that the DPR had "independently started to implement the Minsk agreements".[69] Zakharchenko said that the elections would "take place 'on the basis of Ukraine's law on temporary self-rule status of individual districts of the Donetsk and Luhansk regions', in so far as they are not at variance with the constitution and laws of the DPR".[69]
On the same day, PresidentPetro Poroshenko responded that if DPR elections went forward in this unilateral manner, it would be "extremely irresponsible and will have devastating consequences for the process of deescalation of tension in certain areas of Donetsk and Luhansk regions".[69] In addition, the OSCE said that it would only send observers to elections in the conflict zone if Ukraine invited it to do so.[70] As specified in Minsk II, local elections in DPR and LPR-held territories must be observed by the OSCE to be deemed legitimate.[41]
Amidst a great reduction in violence, following an agreement to restart the implementation of Minsk II that was agreed to on 1 September, theNormandy four held a meeting on 2 October. At the meeting, it was agreed that elections in the conflict zone would be held in accordance with Minsk II.[71] In order to do this, French PresidentFrançois Hollande said that the elections would need to be postponed until 2016, as three months were required to prepare for them.[71] Russian PresidentVladimir Putin agreed to use his influence to prevent the DPR and LPR from holding early elections.[71]
Accordingly, the DPR and LPR announced on 6 October that their planned elections had been postponed until 21 February 2016.[72]Local elections in the rest of Ukraine went ahead on 25 October 2015. Following the postponement, German foreign ministerFrank-Walter Steinmeier said that if OSCE observers verified that the planned elections to be held in the separatist areas were in accordance with Ukrainian law and Minsk II, the "law on special status" for these areas would come into immediate effect.[73]
On 18 April 2016, the planned (organised by the DPR and LPR) local elections were postponed from 20 April to 24 July 2016.[74] On 22 July 2016, these DPR and LPR elections were again postponed to 6 November 2016.[75] On 2 October 2016, the DPR and LPR held "primaries" in which voters nominated candidates for the 6 November 2016 elections.[76] Ukraine denounced these "primaries" as illegal.[76]Elections for thePeople's Council of the Donetsk People's Republic and thePeople's Council of the Luhansk People's Republic were organised and held by the Donetsk and Luhansk People's Republics on 11 November 2018.[77]
AmericanDefense Department official Michael Carpenter said on 2 March 2016 that at least 430 Ukrainian soldiers had died since the signing of Minsk II, that Russia maintained "command-and-control links" over the DPR and LPR, and that Russia was "pouring heavy weapons" into the Donbas.[78] Deputy head of the OSCE mission in Ukraine Alexander Hug said on 25 March 2016 that the OSCE had observed "armed people with Russian insignia" fighting in Donbas from the beginning of the conflict, that they had talked to prisoners who said they were Russian soldiers, and that they had seen "tire tracks, not the vehicles themselves, but the tracks of vehicles crossing the [Russo-Ukrainian] border".[79]
Russian Foreign Ministry spokeswomanMaria Zakharova said on 27 March 2016 that Russia was "not a party to the Minsk agreements", and that the agreements were "devoted to two conflicting sides".[80] TheParliamentary Assembly of the Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe however said that the Minsk Protocol also includes the liberation of those hostages who have been abducted from the Ukrainian territory and are illegally detained in Russia, e.g.Nadiya Savchenko andOleg Sentsov.[81]
On 27 December 2018, Ukrainiannews agencyUNIAN reported that not a single provision of the Minsk deal had been fully implemented.[7]
In 2016, the so-called Steinmeier Formula was heralded.[82][83] Steinmeier appears to have used Russia's exclusion from theG8 as pressure.[84] Steinmeier proposal "implicitly acknowledged, and [was] explicitly based on, the Kremlin’s military achievements" of 2014 and 2015. The Formula, proposed by both Russian and European diplomats, encouraged Ukraine to carry out elections in theterritory controlled by Russia and to provide Russia-occupied territories with "special status".[2]
In 2019, Ukraine signed up to the Steinmeier formula, while President Zelenskyy clarified, in light of domestic criticism, that they were not capitulating and that special status would only be possible after elections would be held, but only after regaining control of Ukraine's eastern borders.[85]
In December 2019, Ukraine and Russia agreed to implement a "full and comprehensive ceasefire." The agreement followed prisoner swaps and the withdrawal of Ukrainian military in three areas. The two sides agreed to swap the remaining prisoners and disengage military forces in three additional regions. According to Zelensky there was also progress with the issue of gas exports. Russia and Ukraine could not agree on the issues of the withdrawal of Russian-backed troops and the elections in the separatist-held regions.[86]
In July 2020,Office of The President of Ukraine announced that Leonid Kuchma will no longer take part in the work of theTrilateral Contact Group (TCG) on resolving the situation in Ukraine's east.Leonid Kuchma met with Ukrainian PresidentVolodymyr Zelensky on 28 July.[87]
In June 2021, U.S. PresidentJoe Biden and Russian PresidentVladimir Putin "agreed to pursue diplomacy related to the Minsk agreement."[88]
ANormandy Format meeting was planned between Russia, Ukraine, Germany and France inParis on 26 January 2022.[89][90] Ukraine fulfilled Russia's condition for a meeting in Paris and decided to withdraw fromParliament the controversial draft law on the reintegration of the Crimea and Donbas region, because the law was contrary to the Minsk II.[91][92]
History professor Michael Kimmage criticizes the West's position for it being "the opposite of deterrence" and for its weakness. "Western policy was an invitation for Putin to go further". During 2021, Putin prepared Russia for a full-scale war within Europe.[93] On 15 February 2022, the Russian Duma voted to appeal to President Putin to recognise the self-proclaimed LPR and DPR.[94] The next day, a Russian government spokesman acknowledged that officially recognising the Donbas republics would not be in keeping with the Minsk agreements.[95] However, he also told journalists that Putin's priority in regulating the situation in Donbas is the implementation of mechanisms adopted under those agreements.[96] Russia went on to officially recognise the self-proclaimed Luhansk and Donetsk people's republics on 21 February 2022.[9] Following that decision, on 22 February 2022, President Putin said that the Minsk agreements "no longer existed", and that Ukraine, not Russia, was to blame for their collapse, accusing Ukraine of genocide in Donbas in his comments[97][98][10] – a statement largely seen asbaseless and factually wrong by the wider world, academics studying genocide, and theUnited Nations.[99][100][101][102] Russia theninvaded Ukraine on 24 February 2022.[11]
On 24 August 2022, after a meeting of theCrimea Platform, Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelenskiy stated that current front lines in the war would not be frozen. "At the point where we are, we are not ready for a ceasefire. We explained that there will be no Minsk-3, Minsk-5, or Minsk-7. We will not play these games, we have lost part of our territories this way … it is a trap".[103]
Following thefall of Debaltseve in February 2015, about one-third of theDonbas region remained in separatist control.[104] A few days before the2022 Russian invasion, French presidentEmmanuel Macron and US Secretary of StateAntony Blinken opined that the Minsk agreements were "the way forward" to end the conflict in Donbas. Blinken added that it was an incomplete step as there were other outstanding issues.[105] The aim of the Russian intervention in Donbas was to establish pro-Russian governments that, upon reincorporation into Ukraine, would facilitate Russian interference in Ukrainian politics.[106] The agreements were thus highly favourable to the Russian side, as their implementation would accomplish these goals.[107]
In May and June 2021,Mark Galeotti proposed "it is time to recognize that the Minsk process has run its course — and may if anything be blocking any more meaningful dialogue",[108] and suggested that as an external party, the United Kingdom might move diplomacy forward.[109] In a June 2021 interview,Vladislav Surkov, Putin's aide for Ukraine policy from 2013 to 2020, who was removed from his role in February 2020, said that Ukraine "can be reformed as aconfederation, with a lot of freedom for the regions to decide things by themselves". He said the country would be severed by the "geopolitical gravity" between Russia and the West, describing the Minsk agreements as an act that "legitimized the first division of Ukraine" in a "reconquest", "the first open geopolitical counter-attack by Russia [against the West]".[110] In October 2021, Russian Foreign MinisterSergey Lavrov said that "if the Americans are genuinely prepared to support the implementation of the Minsk Agreements, this issue can be settled very quickly."[111]
A dispute emerged over the role of the Russian Federation, with the parties understanding Minsk as an agreement between Ukraine and Russia,[112][113][114][115] but Russian officials claiming the role of mediator, insisted that Ukraine negotiate directly with representatives of the self-proclaimedseparatist republics inparts of Donetsk and Luhansk.[116] Ukrainian PresidentVolodymyr Zelensky said he has "no intention of talking to terrorists".[117] The Russian side refused high-level talks, and the Kremlin endorsed an October 2021Kommersant article by former Russian president Dmitri Medvedev entitled "Why It Is Senseless to Deal with the Current Ukrainian Leadership",[118][119] which some[who?] have criticized.[120]
In November 2021, the Russian foreign ministry breached diplomatic protocol by releasing confidential correspondence with negotiators Germany and France.[121][122]
In January 2022,Oleksiy Danilov, the secretary of Ukraine'sNational Security and Defense Council, said that "The fulfillment of the Minsk agreement means the country’s destruction. When they were signed under the Russian gun barrel — and the German and the French watched — it was already clear for all rational people that it’s impossible to implement those documents."[123]Oleksii Arestovych, a former member of the Trilateral Contact Group on Ukraine said in 2024 that Ukraine never planned to fulfill the terms of Minsk II accords.[124]
Angela Merkel said in 2022 that the agreement had been "an attempt to give Ukraine time";Reuters reported that Ukraine used this time to strengthen its armed forces.[125] In an interview to Semen Pegov in 2024, former head of DPRAlexander Borodai explained that, in military terms, the Russian intervention in Ukraine should have started already in 2014 but Russia was not ready for that in economic, military and propaganda sense, which is why Russia entered the Minsk Agreements with no intention of complying, but it gave it time to prepare the full-scale invasion.[126]
the outcome of both Minsk‑1 and Minsk‑2 which give a real chance to peacefully restore the territorial integrity of Ukraine by coming to an agreement directly with the DPR and LPR with Russia, Germany and France as mediators, contradicts the entire logic of the anti-Russia project.
