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Max Otte | |
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.jpg) Otte in 2016 | |
| Born | Matthias Otte (1964-10-07)7 October 1964 (age 61) |
| Citizenship |
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| Alma mater | |
| Occupations | Economist, author, fund manager, political activist |
| Known for |
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| Political party | Christian Democratic Union (CDU; expelled in 2022) |
| Movement | Values Union |
| Children | 3 |
| Awards |
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| Website | max-otte |
Matthias "Max" Otte (born 7 October 1964) is aneconomist,publicist and right-wingpolitical activist who holds German and U.S. citizenship. Otte, who has heldprofessorships inWorms,Graz andErfurt, is currently afund manager.[1] He has written several books, mainly on financial policy topics.[2][3][4]
From June 2018 to January 2021, Otte was chairman of theboard of trustees of theAfD-affiliatedDesiderius-Erasmus-Foundation. A member of theCDU since 1991, he led theWerteunion from May 2021 until January 2022. In January 2022, Otte became provisionally expelled from the CDU when he was nominated by theright-wing populist party AfD as a candidate for the2022 German presidential election. He faced further proceedings for a permanent exclusion from the CDU which concluded in August 2022 with Otte's formal expulsion from the CDU.
Otte was born inPlettenberg,West Germany to Lore Otte,[5] née Hauter, and Max Otte (1928–1983), a vocational school teacher and local politician. After the death of his father, Otte took his first name Max. Max Otte obtained hisAbitur (university entrance qualification) at Albert-Schweitzer-GymnasiumPlettenberg in 1983.[6]
In 1983, Otte graduated fromhigh school in Plettenberg. From 1983 to 1989, he studied business administration, economics and political science at theUniversity of Cologne. Between 1986 and 1987, he spent a year abroad at the American University in Washington, D.C., on a scholarship from theKonrad Adenauer Foundation, where he majored in economic policy, finance and marketing. During this time, he received various scholarships and awards. He completed his education in 1989 with a degree in economics. After graduating from Princeton University with a Master of Arts in Public Affairs in 1991, Otte earned his doctorate there in 1997 with Aaron Friedberg's thesis "A Rising Middle Power? - German Foreign Policy in Transformation."[7]
Otte worked as a consultant for international organizations and the public sector at Kienbaum and Partners from 1989 to 1994 and was an employee of the GüterslohCenter for Higher Education (CHE) in 1995.[8] From 1997 to 1998, he was employed by Arthur D. Little. He advised various companies and organizations, including Munich Re, the German Federal Ministry of Economics, and the United Nations. From 1998 to 2000, Otte was assistant professor of International Economics and International Management at the Department of International Relations atBoston University.[9] He also helped establish the Executive MBA Program in Business Integration at the Julius Maximilians University of Würzburg from 2001 to 2005.[10]
In 2001, he became a tenured professor of general and international business administration at Worms University of Applied Sciences, where he taught marketing, international business studies, and finance and investment in the departments of international business administration and foreign trade, as well as tourism. From 2011 to 2016, he was a professor of quantitative and qualitative business analysis and diagnosis at Karl Franzens University in Graz, Austria.[11][12] In 2018, he retired from civil service at his own request.[citation needed]
Otte has been a fund manager since 2005.[13] For a time, he held a lectureship at the Faculty of Political Science at the University of Erfurt.[citation needed]
Otte is the author and editor of several books. Otte has published articles in newspapers such as theFrankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung,Die Welt,Der Spiegel,Financial Times Deutschland,The Times,Harvard Business Review andWirtschaftsdienst[14] and has appeared on television, with broadcasters such as ARD, ZDF, SWR, n-TV, Bloomberg and N24. In 2021, he published his most personal book, In Search of Lost Germany, writing about his childhood, his parents, grandparents, and the people who influenced him.[15][16]
Otte is theauthor of several books mainly on financial policy topics.[17][18][19] His first books appeared starting in 1989, initially publishing exclusively for the university field, such as onmacroeconomics or generaleconomic policy. His first book outside of this field wasAmerica for Businessmen: das Einmaleins der ungeschriebenen Regeln, published by Campus-Verlag in 1996. In 2006, Otte published the book "Der Crash kommt. The New Global Economic Crisis and How to Prepare for It." In it, he predicted a collapse of thestock markets. During the2008 financial crisis, Otte made this known to a broad public.[20][21][22][23] This was followed by "The Information Crash" and "Stop the Euro Disaster," in which he took a critical look at the euro crisis and called for Greece to be allowed to go broke.[24][25] In his last book "Auf der Suche nach dem verlorenen Deutschland", he writes about hischildhood, his family, and about flight and expulsion in his father's family.[26]
Otte is the father of three children.[27] Otte has held U.S. citizenship in addition to German citizenship since 2005.[28]
In 2003, he founded the Institut für Vermögensentwicklung (IFVE) as a limited liability company.[29] A stock corporation established in Switzerland in the meantime has since been deleted.[30]
Otte first became active as a fund advisor in October 2005 for a fund launched by Banque SCS Alliance in Luxembourg, the Pléiade Actions "Privatinvestor."[31] He recommended this in 2006 in the bookDer Crash kommt as a "fund for the crisis," but discontinued his advisory work for this fund in October 2008 during the2008 financial crisis. In March 2008, the investment fund PI Global Value Fund was launched in Liechtenstein, which according to Otte's statements invested according to his strategy. This second fund received marketing authorization for Germany, Austria, and Switzerland in 2011. This was followed in July 2013 by the Max Otte Vermögensbildungsfonds AMI, launched by Ampega Investment, a fund exclusively for German investors, as Otte said he could no longer advise PI Global Value personally, but only through his Swiss "Privatinvestor" management company, due to his residence inCologne and the tightened legal situation since the2008 financial crisis.[32] At the end of 2016, Otte initiated a hedge fund for professional investors. The fund was launched in March 2008.
In November 2009, he was voted "Money Manager of the Year" by the readers of the stock market journal Börse Online, winning 10,000 votes from a total of 24,000. In the same month, he confirmed that the value of (European) stocks were not yet too expensive. He defended his title as "Money Manager of the Year" in 2010 and obtained more than half of the votes, competing against 10 other money managers.
The PI Global Value fund (WKN: A0NE9G), launched in March 2008, "is among the top ten to 15 percent." However, the sale of gold mining stocks in 2015 was "simply wrong." According to a report by Börse Online, the "accusation of continuous underperformance" of the funds initiated by Otte is also unjustified. The PI Global Value fund had beaten theDAX,EURO STOXX 50 as well as theMSCI World over its entire term until the end of 2016. During this period, the fund had recorded an increase in value of 87.43 percent, which corresponded to an annual return of 7.46 percent.[33]
In November 2017, it was revealed that Otte had moved the management of his funds from Switzerland to Germany.[34] To do so, he had received a license from the German Federal Financial Supervisory Authority (BaFin).[35] In 2020, this was extended to a portfolio management license.[36]
In July 2021, the fund was changed from Max Otte Vermögensbildungsfonds to PI Vermögensbildungsfonds (DE000A1J3AM3).[37] The fund is managed by Bayerische Vermögen AG inTraunstein.[38]
In 2006, Otte published the book "The Crash is Coming. The New Global Economic Crisis and How to Prepare for It." In it, he predicted a collapse of thestock markets. During the2008 financial crisis, Otte made this publicly known.[21][22][23]
In 2009, Otte advocated the nationalization of the bankHypo Real Estate. He sees Germany'ssavings banks andcooperative banks as a stability factor and a way to promote small and medium-sized businesses.[39][40]
In a hearing in the Finance Committee of theGerman Bundestag in 2010, Otte expressed the view that afinancial transaction tax would lead to lower fees for money investors via reduced portfolio reallocations.[41] Otte described the international financial market as a threat to democracy. He said that the financial sector had hijacked politics. In the monetary policy of central banks, Otte sees planned economy[42] and drew comparisons to the final phase of theGDR.[43]
In April 2010, Otte called for the most indebted countries in Europe to leave theEurozone. In 2010, he supported a call for theGerman government to ban uncovered short selling.[44] Otte advocates massive regulation offinancial markets and calls for rules on banks' capital adequacy as the basis of their liability in amarket economy.[45][46] He criticized alegitimacy deficit in theEuropean Union.
At an event of the globalization-criticalnon-governmental organizationAttac in August 2017, Otte criticized that politics had capitulated to the capital lobby. He described the prevailing economic order as "loot capitalism" for the benefit of the super-rich and called for financial income to be taxed like labor income.[47] He described the prevailing opinion of many economists as a "religion of hypercapitalism" that is oriented only toward self-interest.[48]
In March 2018, Otte was among the first signatories of the "Joint Declaration 2018", an appeal by Germanauthors,publicists, artists,scientists, and politicians against "damaging Germany" by an "illegal mass immigration" taking place in the context of therefugee crisis in Germany from 2015.[49][50]
In 2017, Otte founded theOswald Spengler Society with David Engels and Michael Thöndl, on whose presidium Otte serves astreasurer.[51] In 2018, the Oswald Spengler Prize, endowed by Otte and worth 10,000 euros, was awarded for the first time toMichel Houellebecq.[52][53] In 2020, it was awarded toWalter Scheidel, ahistorian who teaches atStanford University.[54]
Marcel Fratzscher, president of theGerman Institute for Economic Research, regards Otte as a "crash prophet". According to Fratzscher Otte partly describes economic problems correctly, but draws false conclusions from that. Fratzscher criticizes that Otte deliberately incites panic in order to sell his books.[55] Michael Blume notes that Otte's forecasts regarding the value of gold were wrong and the income value of the funds managed by Otte were "weak to embarrassing".[56]
During aprotest rally over COVID-19 policies in Germany on 31 May 2020, Otte talked about an alleged connection between theCOVID-19 pandemic and the abolition ofcash payments. He considered these two as "two sides of the same coin" and suggested that a financially stronglobby might be behind all of that. Blume concludes that Otte mixes upnationalistic,racist andantisemitic allusions to convey hisconspiracy beliefs.[56]
After theright-wing murder ofWalter Lübcke in 2019 Otte questioned theright-wing extremist motive of the murderer. He criticized the media for an alleged agitation against thepolitical right. This led to a number of politicians from theUnion and theValue Union to call for Otte leaving theChristian Democratic Union of Germany (CDU).[57] Otte didn't leave the CDU and became federal president of the Value Union in May 2021.[58]
Since the party started in 2013, CDU member Otte had expressed his sympathy for the AfD in many ways.
Before the2017 German federal election Otte said he would vote for theAlternative for Germany (AfD) and argued in favor of acoalition government between the CDU and the AfD.[59] In January 2022 Otte became nominee of the AfD for the2022 German presidential election.[60] As a consequence he was expelled from the CDU temporarily and moreover faced expulsion proceedings for a permanent exclusion.[61] The proceedings concluded on 3 August 2022 with the expected result of Otte's formal expulsion from the CDU.[62]
Before being nominated as the AfD candidate for the presidency, Max Otte donated at least 30,000 euros to the district association of party leaderTino Chrupalla.[63] AfD party representatives deny a connection to his candidacy.[64][65]
On 5 May 2018, Otte was the organizer of the New Hambach Festival. The event was attended by around 1,200 visitors and various speakers from the right-wing populist camp, includingJörg Meuthen,Thilo Sarrazin andVera Lengsfeld, who wanted to continue the tradition of theHambach Festival of 1832.[66][67]
Even before the event,Melanie Amann pointed out inDer Spiegel a method "in the right-wing milieu" of claiming historical dates and places for oneself and drawing one's own "actions as a logical continuation of the work of heroic role models." Otte denied to the magazine that this was an AfD event. However, he said, the "AfD is also the only party that openly addresses the basic problem of this country. Namely, we are witnessing the dismantling of everything we can be proud of."[68]
The event was held again in 2019 and 2020.[69]
Otte was a member of theCDU from 1991 until his temporary expulsion in January 2022.[61][70] The expulsion was made permanent in August 2022.[62] He became a member of theValues Union in 2017 and served as itschairman from May 2021 until January 2022.[71][72]
In 2006, Otte was a founding member of theCenter for Value Investing as well as its director and supervisory board.[73] According to his website he is also a member of theAtlantik-Brücke, theGerman-American Business Club Frankfurt and theGerman Association for Financial Analysis and Asset Management.[74] Otte has been serving on the advisory board of thePrussian Society Berlin-Brandenburg since 2010.[75][76] He is a member of the German Language Association.[77]
Otte received the Mont Pelerin Society Award for his 1988 essay "Toward an Open World Order". This society was founded in 1947 byFriedrich August von Hayek as an association of academics, businessmen and journalists.[citation needed]
Otte is the initiator of theHuman Roots Award [de], which is presented by theRömisch-Germanisches Zentralmuseum inMainz.[78] He was the founding benefactor of the first 2017 prize of €10,000.[79] It is an international archaeology prize that was awarded for the first time in 2017.[80]
In his bookA Rising Middle Power? (New York, 2000), Max Otte examines German foreign policy in recent years. He focuses in particular on whether the increase in power following the reunification has led to a shift in the style of the Federal Republic of Germany's foreign policy. Alongside a political economic analysis of the power potential of the Federal Republic of Germany, the book contains three case studies: Germany and European unification/introduction of the Euro, Germany and military interventions abroad and the eastward enlargement of the EU. Ottes surprising conclusion is that, whilst Germany's power has grown, the demands on the reunified country have grown even more strongly. Germany diplomacy continues to be typical of a middle power, aiming at reconciliation.
Thomas Berger described it as a "welcome contribution to the growing literature on German foreign policy", but criticised inconsistencies in Otte'srealist framework and the author notoperationalising "middle power".[81] John Duffield shared Berger's disapproval of Otte's framework, calling it "insufficiently developed" and asserting that Otte's argument comes close to "becoming nonfalsifiable". He also objected to Otte not engaging with alternative explanations and criticised a number of internal contradictions.[82]
In his bookInvestieren statt Sparen Otte describes how private investors can achieve long-term wealth creation. It is in the interest of the investor to carry out his financial planning personally, and not have it performed by a third party. Investment is the most important component of long-term wealth creation, although personal responsibility, transparency and availability of reliable financial information as well as patience for the investment horizon are also essential. Sound investments also involve taking calculable risks. In addition, Otte describes the advantage internet offers for carrying out online bank transactions, automatically placing orders, as well as facilitating communication and exchange of information between investors. The effect of doubling private assets is based on the principle of compound interest and the possibility of earning an approx. average annual return of 8-10%, for example on the DAX. The financial objectives are determined by disposable net income, the return on investment, the investment period and the age of the investor. The investment amount is defined as savings minus consumption. The highest yields can be obtained from investment in stocks. The ownership of stocks makes the investor co-owner of a company, enabling him to benefit from the economic success of the company's goods and services. Successful long-term investments by private investors have largely resulted from investment in strong brands and quality organizations such as Coca-Cola, McDonald's, Sony, Nestlé, Procter & Gamble, IBM, etc., which have been established on the market for a long period of time.
The value of stocks is based on the present and future earnings of the organization. Otte divides stocks into several categories: "Meisteraktien" ("master stocks": internationally renowned companies with global brands such as DaimlerChrysler, Coca-Cola, Siemens), "Kaufleuteaktien" ("trader stocks": large corporations that are currently undervalued with a low price / earnings ratio; high earnings in spite of low market value), "Königsaktien" ("king stocks": the world's best mature large corporations and industry leaders that grow less quickly than revolutionary stocks), "Revolutionärsaktien" ("revolutionary stocks": young growing companies with revolutionary, innovative ideas such as Google, Microsoft, Cisco Systems, etc.) and "Valueaktien" (blue chips).
After the publication of his bookDer Crash kommt., Max Otte became more widely known.[citation needed] The book begins with the preface from the first edition in 2006:
I can't tell you whether the crash will come in 2008. Perhaps it will come already in 2007, or even later in 2009 or 2010. Human behavior – for that is what the outbreak of a major global economic crisis is about - cannot be predicted with mathematic precision, even if some "crisis prophets" will always try to do so. Some of the strongest indications seem to point to the year 2010, others to the end of 2007. However, if I have correctly understood the signals coming from the world economy, then it will have to crash – and with an enormous impact.
— Max Otte
Otte sees himself as a political economist in the tradition ofFriedrich List,Karl Marx,Max Weber,Werner Sombart,Alexander Rüstow andWilhelm Röpke, and is inspired by theAustrian school of economic thought.[clarification needed]
Otte accurately forecast that the U.S. property market and subprime securities would spark the crisis. He believes that there are several causes of the crisis:
Moreover, Otte emphasizes that financial crises are not unusual in capitalism, however the majority of economists are reluctant to analyse them. In the last two chapters of the book Otte gives investment tips.
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