Formula that calculates option prices for dividend-paying stocks
Inmathematical finance,Margrabe's formula[1] is anoption pricing formula applicable to an option to exchange one risky asset for another risky asset at maturity. It was derived byWilliam Margrabe[2] in 1978. Margrabe's paper has been cited by over 2000 subsequent articles.[3]
SupposeS1(t) andS2(t) are the prices of two risky assets at timet, and that each has a constant continuous dividend yieldqi. The option,C, that we wish to price gives the buyer the right, but not the obligation, to exchange the second asset for the first at the time of maturityT. In other words, its payoff,C(T), is max(0,S1(T) - S2(T)).
If the volatilities ofSi's areσi, then, whereρ is the Pearson's correlation coefficient of the Brownian motions of theSi 's.
Margrabe's formula states that the fair price for the option at time 0 is:
where:
are the expected dividend rates of the prices under the appropriate risk-neutral measure,
Margrabe's model of the market assumes only the existence of the two risky assets, whose prices, as usual, are assumed to follow ageometric Brownian motion. The volatilities of these Brownian motions do not need to be constant, but it is important that the volatility ofS1/S2,σ, is constant. In particular, the model does not assume the existence of a riskless asset (such as azero-coupon bond) or any kind ofinterest rate. The model does not require an equivalent risk-neutral probability measure, but an equivalent measure under S2.
First, consider both assets as priced in units ofS2 (this is called 'usingS2 asnumeraire'); this means that a unit of the first asset now is worthS1/S2 units of the second asset, and a unit of the second asset is worth 1.
Under this change of numeraire pricing, the second asset is now a riskless asset and its dividend rateq2 is the interest rate. The payoff of the option, repriced under this change of numeraire, is max(0,S1(T)/S2(T) - 1).
So the original option has become acall option on the first asset (with its numeraire pricing) with a strike of 1 unit of the riskless asset. Note the dividend rateq1 of the first asset remains the same even with change of pricing.
Applying theBlack-Scholes formula with these values as the appropriate inputs, e.g. initial asset valueS1(0)/S2(0), interest rateq2, volatilityσ, etc., gives us the price of the option under numeraire pricing.
Since the resulting option price is in units ofS2, multiplying through byS2(0) will undo our change of numeraire, and give us the price in our original currency, which is the formula above. Alternatively, one can show it by theGirsanov theorem.