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Jan Tinbergen

From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
Dutch economist and Nobel Laureate (1903–1994)
Jan Tinbergen
Tinbergen in 1982
Born(1903-04-12)12 April 1903
The Hague, Netherlands
Died9 June 1994(1994-06-09) (aged 91)
The Hague, Netherlands
Alma materLeiden University
Known forFirst nationalmacroeconomic model
AwardsErasmus Prize (1967)
Nobel Memorial Prize in Economic Sciences (1969)
Scientific career
FieldsEconomics,econometrics
InstitutionsErasmus University
Doctoral advisorPaul Ehrenfest
Doctoral studentsTjalling Koopmans
Hans van den Doel
Supachai Panitchpakdi
Ashok Mitra

Jan Tinbergen (/ˈtɪnbɜːrɡən/TIN-bur-gən,Dutch:[jɑnˈtɪmbɛrɣə(n)]; 12 April 1903 – 9 June 1994) was a Dutcheconomist who was awarded the firstNobel Memorial Prize in Economic Sciences in 1969, which he shared withRagnar Frisch for having developed and applied dynamic models for the analysis ofeconomicprocesses. He is widely considered to be one of the most influential economists of the 20th century and one of the founding fathers ofeconometrics.[1][2][3][4]

His important contributions to econometrics include the development of the firstmacroeconometric models, the solution of the identification problem, and the understanding of dynamic models.[3] Tinbergen was a founding trustee ofEconomists for Peace and Security. In 1945, he founded theBureau for Economic Policy Analysis (CPB) and was the agency's first director.

Biography

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Tinbergen was the eldest of five children of Dirk Cornelis Tinbergen and Jeannette van Eek. His brotherNikolaas "Niko" Tinbergen would also win a Nobel Prize (forphysiology, during 1973) for his work inethology, while his youngest brotherLuuk would become a famousornithologist. Jan and Nikolaas Tinbergen are the only siblings to have both won Nobel Prizes.[5]

Between 1921 and 1925, Tinbergen studiedmathematics andphysics at theUniversity of Leiden underPaul Ehrenfest. During those years at Leiden, he had numerous discussions with Ehrenfest,Kamerlingh Onnes,Hendrik Lorentz,Pieter Zeeman, andAlbert Einstein.[6][7]

After graduating, Tinbergen fulfilled his community service in the administration of a prison in Rotterdam and at the Central Bureau of Statistics (CBS) in The Hague. He then returned to theUniversity of Leiden and in 1929 defended hisPhD thesis titled "Minimumproblemen in de natuurkunde en de economie" (Minimisation problems in Physics and Economics).[8] This topic was suggested by Ehrenfest and allowed Tinbergen to combine his interests in mathematics, physics, economics and politics. At that time, CBS established a new department of business surveys and mathematical statistics, and Tinbergen became its first chairman, working at CBS until 1945. Access to the vast CBS data helped Tinbergen in testing his theoretical models. In parallel, starting from 1931, he was professor of statistics at theUniversity of Amsterdam, and in 1933 he was appointed associate professor of mathematics and statistics at TheNetherlands School of Economics, Rotterdam, where he stayed until 1973.[6][7]

From 1929 to 1945 he worked for theDutch statistical office and served as consultant at theEconomic and Financial Organization of theLeague of Nations (1936–1938). In 1945 he became the first director of theNetherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis and left this position in 1955 to focus on education. He spent one year as a visiting professor at theHarvard University and then returned to the Dutch Economic Institute (the successor of the Netherlands School of Economics). In parallel, he provided consulting services to international organizations and governments of various developing countries, such as United Arab Republic, Turkey, Venezuela, Surinam, Indonesia and Pakistan.[6][7][9]

Tinbergen became a member of theRoyal Netherlands Academy of Arts and Sciences in 1946.[10] He was also a member of the International Academy of Science, Munich. In 1956 he founded theEconometric Institute at theErasmus Universiteit Rotterdam together withHenri Theil, who also was his successor inRotterdam. In 1960, he was elected as aFellow of the American Statistical Association and theAmerican Academy of Arts and Sciences.[11][12] TheTinbergen Institute was named in his honour. TheInternational Institute of Social Studies (ISS) awarded its Honorary Fellowship to Jan Tinbergen in 1962.[6][7] He was elected to theAmerican Philosophical Society in 1963.[13] In 1968, he received an honorary doctorate fromSir George Williams University, which later becameConcordia University.[14] He was elected to the United StatesNational Academy of Sciences in 1974.[15]

Work

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MinisterPronk, Tinbergen and De Seynes at an economy symposium in The Hague, 23 May 1975

For many, Jan Tinbergen became known for the so-called 'Tinbergen Norm' often discussed long after his death. There is no written work of Tinbergen in which he himself states it formally.[16] It is generally believed to be the principle that, if the ratio between the greatest and least income exceeds 5, it becomes disadvantageous for the societal unit involved. Tinbergen himself discussed some technicalities of a five-to-one income distribution ratio in an article published in 1981.[17] Apart from specifics about a five-to-one ratio, it is true in general that Tinbergen's grand theme wasincome distribution and the search for an optimal social order.

Tinbergen developed the first national comprehensivemacroeconomic model, which he first developed in 1936 for theNetherlands, and later applied to theUnited States and theUnited Kingdom.[18]

In his work on macroeconomic modelling and economic policy making, Tinbergen classified some economic quantities astargets and others asinstruments.[19] Targets are those macroeconomic variables the policy maker wishes to influence, whereas instruments are the variables that the policy maker can control directly. Tinbergen emphasized that achieving the desired values of a certain number of targets requires the policy maker to control an equal number of instruments. This is known as theTinbergen Rule.[20]

Tinbergen's classification remains influential today, underlying the theory of monetary policy used bycentral banks. Many central banks today regard theinflation rate as their target; the policy instrument they use to control inflation is the short-terminterest rate.[21]

Tinbergen's work on macroeconomic models was later continued byLawrence Klein, contributing to anotherNobel Memorial Prize in Economic Sciences. For his cultural contributions, he was given theGouden Ganzenveer in 1985.[22]

Tinbergen's econometric modelling lead to a lively debate with several known participants includingJ.M. Keynes,Ragnar Frisch andMilton Friedman. The debate is sometime referred to as theTinbergen debate. (seeKeynes–Tinbergen debate.)[23][24][25]

Selected publications

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  • World security and equity. Aldershot, 1990.ISBN 1852781874.
  • Production, income and welfare: the search for an optimal social order. Brighton, 1985ISBN 0745000142.
  • Economic policy: Principles and Design. Amsterdam, 1978.ISBN 0720431298.
  • Der Dialog Nord-Süd: Informationen zur Entwicklungspolitik. Frankfurt am Main: Europ. Verlagsanstalt, 1977.
  • Income distribution: analysis and policies. New York, 1975.ISBN 0444108327.
  • The Dynamics of Business Cycles: A Study in Economic Fluctuations. Chicago: U of Chicago P, 1974.ISBN 0226804186.
  • The Element of Space in Development Planning (together with L.B.M. Mennes and J.G. Waardenburg), Amsterdam, 1969
  • Development planning. London, 1967.
  • Central planning.Studies in comparative economics, 4. New Haven, 1964.
  • Shaping the world economy, suggestions for an international economic policy. New York, 1962.
  • Selected papers. Amsterdam, 1959
  • Economic Policy: Principles and Design, Amsterdam, 1956
  • Centralization and Decentralization in Economic Policy, Amsterdam, 1954ISBN 0313230773.
  • Econometrics. London, 1953.
  • On the Theory of Economic Policy. Second edition (1952) is Volume 1 ofContributions to Economic Analysis, Amsterdam: North-Holland.
  • Business Cycles in the United Kingdom, 1870–1914, Amsterdam, 1951
  • International economic co-operation. Amsterdam, 1945.
  • Business Cycles in the United States, 1919–1932, Geneva, 1939 and New York, 1968.
  • An econometric approach to business cycle problems. In:Impasses économiques; 2; Actualités scientifiques et industrielles,ISSN 0365-6861; 525. Paris, 1937.
About Tinbergen
  • Acocella, Nicola, Di Bartolomeo, Giovanni (2006),Tinbergen and Theil meet Nash: controllability in policy games, in:Economics Letters, 90(2): 213–218.
  • Acocella, Nicola, Di Bartolomeo, Giovanni and Hughes Hallett, A. [2010],Policy games, policy neutrality and Tinbergen controllability under rational expectations, in:Journal of Macroeconomics, 32(1): 55–67.
  • Acocella, Nicola Di Bartolomeo, Giovanni and Hughes Hallett, A. [2011],Tinbergen controllability and n-player LQ-games, in:Economics Letters, 113: 32–4.
  • Murshed, SM. 2021. "Reformulating Jan Tinbergen's normative vision on welfare and security."Journal of Peace Research.

See also

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References

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  1. ^Dekker, Erwin (2021).Jan Tinbergen (1903–1994) and the Rise of Economic Expertise. Cambridge University Press.ISBN 978-1108853200.
  2. ^Dekker, Erwin (2022)."An "Ordo-Thinker" on the Left: Jan Tinbergen on the National and International Economic Order".History of Political Economy.54 (4):689–718.doi:10.1215/00182702-9895888.ISSN 0018-2702.S2CID 248839847.
  3. ^abMagnus, Jan & Mary S. Morgan (1987) "The ET Interview: Professor J. Tinbergen" in:Econometric Theory 3, 1987, 117–142.
  4. ^Willlekens, Frans (2008)International Migration in Europe: Data, Models and Estimates. New Jersey. John Wiley & Sons: 117.
  5. ^"Nobel Prize Facts".
  6. ^abcdJan Tinbergen (1903–1994) Koninklijke Bibliotheek (in Dutch)
  7. ^abcdO'Connor, John J.;Robertson, Edmund F.,"Jan Tinbergen",MacTutor History of Mathematics Archive,University of St Andrews
  8. ^Jan Tinbergen (1929)."Minimumproblemen in de natuurkunde en de economie"(PDF).
  9. ^Curriculum Vitae. nobelprize.org
  10. ^"Jan Tinbergen (1903–1994)". Royal Netherlands Academy of Arts and Sciences. Archived fromthe original on 18 September 2020.
  11. ^View/Search Fellows of the ASAArchived 2016-06-16 at theWayback Machine, accessed 2016-07-23.
  12. ^"Jan Tinbergen".American Academy of Arts & Sciences. Retrieved2022-11-10.
  13. ^"APS Member History".search.amphilsoc.org. Retrieved2022-11-10.
  14. ^"Honorary Degree Citation – Jan Tinbergen* | Concordia University Archives".archives.concordia.ca. Retrieved2016-03-30.
  15. ^"J. Tinbergen".www.nasonline.org. Retrieved2022-11-10.
  16. ^Akkerboom, Broer."De Tinbergennorm bestaat niet".Me Judice, 14 Mei 2015.
  17. ^Tinbergen, Jan (1981)."Misunderstandings concerning income distribution policies"(PDF).De Economist.129 (1): 13.CiteSeerX 10.1.1.1030.5758.doi:10.1007/BF01705865.hdl:1765/15463.S2CID 154797347.
  18. ^Dhaene, G.; Barten, A.P. (1989). "When it all began".Economic Modelling.6 (2): 203.doi:10.1016/0264-9993(89)90005-9.
  19. ^Klein, Lawrence (2004). "The Contribution of Jan Tinbergen to Economic Science".De Economist.152 (2):155–157.doi:10.1023/B:ECOT.0000023251.14849.4f.S2CID 154689887.
  20. ^Del Rio, Pablo; Howlett, Michael P. (2013)."Beyond the'Tinbergen Rule'in Policy Design: Matching Tools and Goals in Policy Portfolios".Lee Kuan Yew School of Public Policy Research Paper (13–01). Retrieved21 December 2020.
  21. ^Blinder, Alan (1999),Central Banking in Theory and Practice. MIT Press,ISBN 0262522608.
  22. ^"Laureaten De Gouden Ganzenveer vanaf 1955". Stichting De Gouden Ganzenveer. 2009. Archived fromthe original on 2009-02-25. Retrieved2009-07-28.
  23. ^Leeson, R. (1998)."The Ghosts I Called I Can't Get Rid of Now: the Keynes-Tinbergen-Friedman-Phillips Critique of Keynesian Macroeconometrics"(PDF).History of Political Economy.30 (1):51–94.doi:10.1215/00182702-30-1-51.
  24. ^Louçã, F. (1999)."The econometric challenge to Keynes: Arguments and contradictions in the early debates about a late issue"(PDF).The European Journal of the History of Economic Thought.6 (3):404–438.doi:10.1080/10427719900000074.hdl:10400.5/25984.[permanent dead link]
  25. ^Peden, W. (2022)."Probability and Statistics in the Tinbergen-Keynes Debates".Erasmus Journal for Philosophy and Economics.15 (2):100–119.doi:10.23941/ejpe.v15i2.710.

External links

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Wikiquote has quotations related toJan Tinbergen.
Wikimedia Commons has media related toJan Tinbergen.
Awards
New creationLaureate of the Nobel Memorial Prize in Economics
1969
Served alongside:Ragnar Frisch
Succeeded by
1969–1975
1976–2000
2001–present
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