| Fourth Taiwan Strait Crisis | |||||||
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| Part of theCross-Strait conflict | |||||||
 Map of the combined operational zones utilized by the PLA for their large-scale military drills, during the Fourth Taiwan Strait Crisis | |||||||
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 Republic of China (Taiwan)Supported by:  United States |  People's Republic of China | ||||||
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TheFourth Taiwan Strait Crisis (traditional Chinese:第四次台海危機;simplified Chinese:第四次台海危机)[1] is an ongoing conflict between thePeople's Republic of China (PRC) andTaiwan, officially the Republic of China (ROC), with the PRC conducting several large-scalemilitary exercises that encircled Taiwan. China initiated military maneuvers around Taiwan on 2 August 2022, before launching their first major military drill on 4–11 August 2022, which was carried out by China in response toUS Speaker of the HouseNancy Pelosi's visit to Taiwan. The drills involvedlive-fire drills,air sorties, naval deployments, andballistic missile launches by thePeople's Liberation Army (PLA), marking China's biggest escalation in the region since theThird Taiwan Strait Crisis in 1996.[4][5][6][7]
China's military drills wereshows of force intended to deter what the PRC perceives as US meddling in its internal affairs, and to demonstrate Chinese military power in the region for both international and domestic audiences. The drills drew backlash from theG7 (Group of 7) nations.[6][8][9] The live-fire drills observed during the seminal August 2022 military exercise were unprecedented in recent history,[10] and took place in seven zones that surrounded the island's busiestinternational waterways and aviation routes.[7][11][12] The first drill came to an end on 11 August 2022.[13][14]
Since then, China has launched at least seven more major military drills targeting Taiwan,[15][16] with PLA exercises,maritime patrols and evenCoast Guardboardings around the Taiwan Strait becoming routine in what has been defined as "grey-zone tactics".[17] The PRC also declaredsovereignty over allairspace above and around the island, publicly renouncing theDavis line, animaginary median line across the Taiwan Strait that previously marked thede factoterritorial waters between themainland and the island of Taiwan since the 1950s until 2019.[18]
Since 2020, Taiwan'sMinistry of National Defense has published routine reports on incursions of itsAir Defense Identification Zone (ADIZ zone) by Chinese forces, which are considered by analysts to be part of asalami-slicing/swarming strategy and show of force in the region.[19][20][21] PLA aircraft entered Taiwan's ADIZ on nearly 250 days in the 12 months between September 2020 and 2021, and the PRC's 2021National Day celebrations saw a record number of 148 aircraft operating inside Taiwan's ADIZ over the course of four days.[22][23] Most of these incursions, some of which included nuclear-capablebombers, took place in the southwestern part of the ADIZ following major events related to Taiwan's international space.[22][24] In a biennial report released in November 2021, the ROC Ministry of Defense warned that the PRC had obtained the capacity to surround and blockade the island's harbors, airports, and outbound flight routes.[25]
On 9 January 2021, the US State Department underMike Pompeo announced that it wasLifting Self-Imposed Restrictions on the U.S.-Taiwan Relationship, drawing protest from the PRC.[26]
On 10 June 2022, PRC Defense MinisterWei Fenghe warned that "if anyone dares to split Taiwan from China, the Chinese army will definitely not hesitate to start a war", adding that it "would have no choice but to fight ... and crush any attempt ofTaiwan independence" to safeguard "national sovereignty and territorial integrity." U.S. Secretary of DefenseLloyd Austin responded by condemning China's "provocative, destabilising" military activity nearTaiwan.[27][28]
The week before Nancy Pelosi's visit,General Secretary of the Chinese Communist PartyXi Jinping warnedU.S. PresidentJoe Biden in a phone call that Washington should abide by theOne China principle and that "those who play with fire will perish by it".[29] Biden told reporters that U.S. military officials believed Pelosi's visit was "not a good idea right now".[30]
On 2 August, in response to Pelosi's visit, the People's Republic of China announced four days of military live-fire drills,[10] in six zones that encircled the island on the busiest international waterways and aviation routes.[31] In response to the announcement, ROC officials complained that the PLA's live-fire drills were an invasion of Taiwan's territorial space and a direct challenge to free air and sea navigation.[32] That same day, China began conducting significant military movements around Taiwan.[4] Two days later, on 4 August, China added a seventh zone for their military drill,[12] and they launched a week of full-scale military drills around Taiwan.[7][13][14] On 4 August, Taiwanese troops fired flares to drive away drones that flew above theKinmen Islands.[33] In a show of strength, the PRC deployed both acarrier group, as well as at least onenuclear submarine to theTaiwan Strait, with both the carrier group as well as the nuclear submarine participating in the live-fire drills.[34] The PRC announced additional live-fire drills in both theYellow andBohai Sea, and China's Maritime Safety Administration announced five restricted areas in the Yellow Sea where exercises were to happen from 5 August to 15 August, as well as four additional zones in the Bohai Sea, where a month of PRC military operations were scheduled to happen starting from 8 August.[35]
China fired 11 missiles into waters surrounding Taiwan during the live-fire drills, at least several of which wereDongfeng ballistic missiles, double the number fired in July 1995, during theThird Taiwan Strait Crisis.[36] Several missiles reportedly flew over Taiwan.[33][37] Japan reported that five of the missiles landed inits exclusive economic zone, southwest of theYaeyama Islands. According to the JapaneseMinistry of Defense, this is the first time ballistic missiles launched by China had landed in Japan's exclusive economic zone.[38] The scale and intensity of these military exercises were significantly more severe than those of the Third Taiwan Strait Crisis, with the August 2022 drills having more military closure boxes, which were situated much closer to Taiwan and bracketed far more of the island, missiles fired directly over Taiwan for the first time, and more intensive military maneuvers.[1]
While the PLA live-fire exercises were ongoing on 4 August, the UScarrier strike group of theUSS Ronald Reagan was conducting military operations in thePhilippine Sea, including waters to the southeast of Taiwan.[39] However, the US also cancelled the planned test launch of aMinuteman III missile, which was scheduled to happen during the same week the crisis started, in order to avoid escalating tensions with China further.[40]
In response to the PRC drills, on 7 August, the ROC government announced that it would be conducting live-fire artillery exercises inPingtung County which served to act as both retaliation to the recent PRC live-fire exercises around Taiwan and test combat readiness.[41] At first, the PRC seemed to wrap up its military drills according to its original schedule published on 4 August.[42] During drills held inLienchiang County, flares fired by Taiwan's army started a fire.[43] However, on Monday, 8 August,China's Eastern Theater Command announced it would continue its drills, which includesanti-submarine attacks and sea raid operations, without announcing an ending date.[44] On 10 August, the Eastern Theatre Command announced an end to the military exercises, after they had "successfully completed various tasks and effectively tested the integrated combat capabilities of the troops". However, the Eastern Theatre Command also announced it would carry out regular "patrols in the direction of the Taiwan Strait."[13][14]
On 4 March 2023, US Speaker of the HouseKevin McCarthy announced that he had planned a meeting with Taiwanese president Tsai Ing-wen in the U.S.[45] After his announcement, the PLA threatened to take serious action against Tsai if she met with McCarthy.[46]
Despite the threats, Tsai arrived in the U.S. on 5 April and met with McCarthy and other prominent U.S. lawmakers.[47] The meeting took place at theRonald Reagan Presidential Library.
Hours after Tsai's meeting, a congressional delegation consisting of RepresentativeMichael McCaul, chair of theForeign Affairs Committee, arrived inTaipei in their third overseas visit.[48] During their stop, McCaul stated: "we stand here today not as Republicans or Democrats, but as Americans in strong support of Taiwan".[49] He also comparedCCP General SecretaryXi Jinping withAdolf Hitler, a remark that sparked controversy.[50] In response, theChinese Communist Party (CCP) sanctioned McCaul.[51]
On 8 April 2023, the PLA announced the start of three days of "combat readiness patrols" (战备警巡) encirclingTaiwan, naming the exercises "Joint Sword" (联合利剑).[52][53] That same day, Chinese state media released a video which mentioned several of the assets that would be used in the exercises, including PLA army rockets, the Navy's destroyer escort, a missile boat, the Air Force's J-series, fighter bombers,electronic warfare aircraft, and aerial tankers.[54]
Following the announcement, the military dispatched several warships and dozens of aircraft—includingSukhoi Su-30s andXian H-6 bombers—toward Taiwan.[55] According toTaiwan's defense ministry, approximately 71 Chinese military aircraft crossed the median line of theTaiwan Strait.[56] The PLA later announced a live-fire exercise on waters nearPingtan Island.[57] Taiwan released a map of the flight paths of four Chinese J-15 fighter jets to the east of the island, which analysts stated were likely from theShandong aircraft carrier which was participating in the military exercises.[58]
On 9 April 2023, Chinese fighter jets and war ships simulated strikes on Taiwan and simulated an encirclement of the island, prompting Taiwan to deploy its own warships, leading to a standoff between the two navies.[59]
In response, on 10 April, theU.S. Navy sent one warship to theSouth China Sea.[60] That same day,China announced the end of the initial drills, but stated they would continue combat training aroundTaiwan.[61]
In mid-August 2023, then-Taiwanese Vice PresidentWilliam Lai Ching-te transited through the United States during a diplomatic trip toParaguay, inSouth America, making a stopover inNew York City.[62] In response, China initiated a day of large-scale military drills around Taiwan on Saturday, August 19, with at least 42 Chinese aircraft and 8 ships detected in the space around Taiwan, and 26 Chinese fighter jets crossing theMedian Line of the Taiwan Strait. The drill was smaller than the previous two Chinese military drills around Taiwan, however. According to the PLA, they carried out "omnidirectional encirclement" of Taiwan. While the PRC has long despised Taiwanese politicians from theDemocratic Progressive Party (DPP), they were known to harbor a particular enmity for Lai Ching-te.[15][16][63]
The Eastern Theater Command of Operations conducted the initial round of military drills from May 23 to May 24, 2024, Beijing time.[64] It was followed by theJoint Sword-2024B that was conducted on October 14 to 15, 2024, Beijing time.[65] The People's Liberation Army's Eastern Theater Command initiated joint exercises and training in the Taiwan Strait, the northern, southern, and eastern regions of the island of Taiwan, as well as the areas surroundingKinmen,Matsu Islands,Wuqiu Island, andDongyin Island, at 0745 hours on May 23, 2024.[66] After the Joint Operations Command Center of the Eastern Theatre issued operational instructions, theEast Sea Fleet's numerous frigate formations maneuvered at high velocities in multiple directions to the waters surrounding the island of Taiwan.[66] The ships initiated combat deployment upon their scheduled arrival at the designated sea area. TheEastern Theater Command Air Force conducted systematic war patrols around Taiwan and the outer islands by deploying dozens of fighter aircraft.[67] ThePeople's Liberation Army Rocket Force provided support and cover for multi-model formations, which were fully loaded with live ammunition, as they flew to predetermined airspace to establish a number of strike positions.[68][69]
On May 23, Li Xi, the spokesman for the Eastern Theater Command, stated that the "separatist forces" seeking "uniqueness" are "Taiwan independence" and are receiving strong discipline. He also issued a serious warning to "external forces that are interfering with provocations". Li Xi then disclosed the use of weapons and equipment, includingChengdu J-20,Shenyang J-16,Type 052C destroyer,Type 071 amphibious transport dock,Dongfeng series missiles, and box-type long-range rockets.[70][71]
On October 14, the Eastern Theater Command of thePeople's Liberation Army (PLA) coordinated with thePeople's Liberation Army Navy (PLAN),People's Liberation Army Air Force (PLAAF),People's Liberation Army Rocket Force (PLARF) andChinese Coast Guard to conduct "Joint Sword-2024B" maneuvers in theTaiwan Strait, as well six marked areas in the waters north, south, and east of the island of Taiwan, effectively surrounding Taiwan during the drills. According to Li Xi, a spokesman for the Chinese military's Eastern Theater Command, the different branches of the Chinese military focused the exercises on sea-air combat-readiness patrols, blockades on key ports and areas, assaults on maritime and ground targets and joint seizure of comprehensive superiority. During the operation, the Chinese Coast Guard sent four fleets of ships to conduct "law enforcement inspections" around Taiwan, and carried out "comprehensive law enforcement patrols" in waters surrounding theDongyin andMatsu Islands. The Chinese military described the exercises as a "stern warning to the separatist acts of Taiwan Independence forces."[72][73]
On 30 November 2025, William Lai Ching-te, now the President of Taiwan (after winning the2024 Taiwanese presidential election early that year), made a stopover inHawaii, as part of a 2-day transit in the US, during a diplomatic trip to theSouth Pacific countries.[74] Around the same time, China quietly conducted large-scale military drills off their coastline in theEast China Sea, spanning from 28 to 30 November.[75] Lai's trip drew fierce backlash from China, which was expected to launch another large military drill around Taiwan in response, with Taiwanese officials and some media outlets speculating that it could be named "Joint Sword–2024C".[76][77][78] On 8 December 2025, China announced that they would be holding large-scale military drills across both theEast China Sea and the Taiwan Strait over the next few days, closing roughly 1,000 kilometres (620 mi) of airspace across the region when combined with their earlier drill at the end of November.[75] On 9 December, China deployed over 90 ships across the region, including some positioned nearJapan's southern islands, and including moving ships in a formation of two parallel walls to the east of Taiwan, simulating blockade operations. The operation was left unnamed, contrary to expectations. This was China's single-largest maritime deployment to date, exceeding the scale of the previous drills from 2024, their seminal August 2022 military drill, and even their operations during the 1996 Third Taiwan Strait Crisis,[79][80] and it was also the first time they held a military operation of such scale during the winter, which was unusual for them.[78] This drill was the first that appeared to target the entireFirst Island Chain in scope, as well as having a focus specifically on defeating potential foreign intervention. China's operation concluded three days later, by 12 December, and the military drill ended without any live fire. According to a Taiwanese official, this particular military operation probably took 70 days to plan, meaning that it was already scheduled prior to President Lai's Hawaii transit, and even before the previous large-scale drills in October (Joint Sword–2024B).[80]
On 26 February 2025, shortly before the exercise, thePeople's Liberation Army Navy conducted an unannounced exercise off the coast ofKaohsiung andPingtung. The exercise included live-fire drills. At least 32 aircraft and several warships participated in the exercise, of which 22 crossed the Taiwan Strait Median Line and its extension, entering the airspace north andgeography of Taiwan. This exercise was not announced in advance, and the code name of the operation was not made public. It was widely regarded as a simulated surprise attack. TheRepublic of China's navy, army, and air force were placed on alert. The next day, thePremier of theExecutive Yuan of the Republic of China,Cho Jung-tai, expressed hope that mainland China would exercise restraint in such actions, and instructed the armed forces to remain vigilant against various developments in the surrounding areas. TheMinistry of National Defense of the Republic of China also condemned the PLA's behavior.[81] On the same day, Senior Colonel Wu Qian, Director of the Information Bureau of the Ministry of National Defense and spokesman for the Ministry of National Defense, criticized the US attempt to "use Taiwan to contain China" and the Taiwan Democratic Progressive Party authorities' attempt to "rely on the US to seek independence" and "resist unification by force" at a regular press conference when answering questions about the recent Taiwan military "Han Kuang Exercise" exercise. He said to the Taiwan side, "Trying to stop a chariot with a mantis arm will only lead to its own destruction. Sooner or later, we will come to take you away."[82]
On 13 March, PresidentLai Ching-te of theRepublic of China delivered a speech after anational security meeting held on the eve of the 20th anniversary of the 2005Anti-Secession Law. In addition to proposing 17 response strategies for the national security andunited front threats facingTaiwan, he also called China a "foreign hostile forces" as defined by theAnti-Infiltration Act.[83]
On 1 April,Minister of National Defense of the Republic of ChinaGu Lixiong stated that since 29 March, the dynamics of theaircraft carrierShandong formation and other aircraft and ships have been gradually grasped, and yesterday (31 March) they entered thenational army's "response zone", indicating that thePeople's Liberation Army had begun preparing for military operations since the end of March.[84]
On 1 April 2025, Zhu Anqing, spokesperson for theEast China Sea Branch of theChina Coast Guard, stated that multiple Coast Guard fleets had organized law enforcement patrols in the waters around Taiwan, and conducted exercises on spot inspections, arrests, interception, and detention.[85] TheFujian Coast Guard organized a fleet of ships to conduct comprehensive law enforcement patrols in the waters nearDongyin Island andWuqiu Island.[86][87]
On the morning of 1 April, theEastern Theater Command Media Center released three posters inTraditional Chinese characters, with themes such as "Advance," "Deterrence and Closure," and "Destruction and Paralysis".,[88] as well as an animation titled "Shell," which showed how Lai Ching-te used "peace," "freedom," "democracy," and "prosperity" as a cover to "de-Chiangize" his country, formulate the "17 National Security Regulations" of "green terror" to persecute political opponents (such asKo Wen-je andKao An-kuo), and increase military purchases and rely on the United States to seek "independence" to sell out Taiwan. In the animation, Lai Ching-te was drawn up as a worm roasted on fire. This was the first time since Chiang Kai-shek that theChinese Communist Party had vilified a major Taiwanese leader.[89] On the same day, the Eastern Theater Command released an animation titled "Exorcising Demons and Demons", which used material from the popular 2024 gameBlack Myth: Wukong. The video showedTaipei 101 and Hankou Street, as well as satellite positioning locked on Taiwan, and simulated missile attacks onZhongzheng District inTaipei City, where thePresidential Palace of the Republic of China is located. This was the first time that the People's Liberation Army had clearly released its attack target.[90] However, Taiwan media outletChina Times believed that the video had a stronger flavor of "internal propaganda".[91] The exercise video released by the official media showed for the first time the so-calledH-6K bomber carrying theEagle Strike 21 anti-ship missile,[92] which is considered to be able to effectively preventUS military intervention.[93] According to data from theMinistry of National Defense of the Republic of China, on that day, at least 76PLA military aircraft (37 of which crossed the median line of theTaiwan Strait) and 15 warships and 4 government ships approached Taiwan.[94]
Initially, this military drill went unnamed, with a Chinese military source justifying the decision by stating that this change was indicative of the large-scale military exercises near Taiwan having become routine.[95] On 2 April, the second day of the exercise, the Eastern Theater Command officially announced the code name of this exercise, "Strait Thunder-2025A". However, the scope of the exercises that started on 2 April only included "relevant waters in the central and southern parts of the Taiwan Strait". The training subjects were "verification and identification, warning and expulsion, interception and detention, etc.", which was different from the time, scope and subjects announced on the previous day. It can be seen that "Strait Thunder" was not the code name of the entire exercise, and the exercise on 1 April did not fall under the scope of "Strait Thunder".[96]
On 2 April, the Eastern Theater Command of the People's Liberation Army conducted a long-range live-fire exercise in the relevant waters of theEast China Sea in accordance with the exercise plan, striking simulated targets, such as important ports and energy facilities.[97] The Shandong aircraft carrier formation was in the sea and air space east of Taiwan Island, conducting exercises withnaval and air force forces on subjects such as ship-aircraft coordination, regional air control, and sea and land strikes.[98] Zhang Chi, a professor at the National Defense University (China) of thePeople's Liberation Army National Defense University (China), said that the Shandong aircraft carrier formation's participation in the exercise showed that the PLA's ability to respond quickly, strike with precision, and coordinate systems is constantly improving. The presence of the aircraft carrier fleet in the area east of Taiwan helps to militarily block the lifeline of energy resource imports, the support line for obtaining foreign aid, and the escape line for evading sanctions for the "Taiwan independence" forces.[99] Later, the Eastern Theater Command (China) simulated the use ofPHL-16 to attack theYong'an LNG Terminal in Kaohsiung.[100] As a result, the trajectory of thecargo ship Ebisu transporting natural gas to theTaichung LNG Terminal was suspected to be affected by the exercise. TheMinistry of Economic Affairs of the Republic of China clarified this.[101] However, it is certain that the Eastern Theater Command has listed the energy facilities of the Republic of China as priority targets for destruction.[102] In addition, the People's Liberation Army (PLA) also conducted long-range live-fire exercises in the East China Sea.[103] The Ministry of National Defense of the Republic of China stated that on that day, at least 59 PLA aircraft (31 of which crossed the Median line of the Taiwan Strait|median line of the strait and entered the northern, central, southwestern, and eastern airspace) and 23 warships approached Taiwan.[104] The images released by theCoast Guard Administration (Taiwan) at a press conference confirmed that the China Coast Guard Ship 2305 entered the 24-nautical-mile zone adjacent toTaiwan Island.[105]Yuyuan Tantian, a social media account affiliated with theChina Central Television, said that the closest distance of the drill with Taiwan was less than 20 nautical miles.[106]
On 2 April, the Eastern Theater Command released a poster titled "Lockdown".[107][108] The official account of the People's Liberation ArmyNews and Communication Center, "Jun Zhengping Studio", published a commentary titled "Taiwan independence means war, don't say I didn't warn you".[109] The China Coast Guard released a themed video titled "Clean Sea" on law enforcement and control around Taiwan Island.[110]
Taiwan current affairs commentatorJulian Kuo determined that because the United States was busy launching atariff war and dealing with theRussian invasion of Ukraine, andCCP General SecretaryXi Jinping willvisit Russia on 9 May and attend theVictory Daycommemoration activities, there is not enough time to prepare a big event, so this military exercise is more like a compromise.[111] The final move is expected to be on 20 May, one year afterLai Ching-te's inauguration. At that time, Lai Ching-te may make remarks similar to "the two sides of the Taiwan Strait are not subordinate to each other" and "hostile forces abroad", and the People's Liberation Army will once again launch a partial blockade of Taiwan.[112]
On 3 April, thePeople's Liberation Army Daily published a commentary signed by "Jun Sheng" entitled "Separatist provocations will be severely punished, and the reunification of the motherland will surely be realized", directly calling Lai Ching-te a "trouble maker", "danger maker", and "war maker";[113] thePeople's Daily published a commentary signed by "Zhong Yiping" entitled "Resolutely punish Lai Ching-te and do our utmost to defend peace in the Taiwan Strait", stating that "every time the Lai Ching-te administration provokes, military deterrence will be further advanced".[114]
At 6:47 a.m. on 3 April, aU.S. NavyP-8 Poseidon maritime patrol aircraft was warned by a People's Liberation Army Navy warship when it flew over the airspace near the waters off theHengchun Peninsula inPingtung County, Taiwan, saying: "You have entered the 24-nautical-mile contiguous zone ofChina Taiwan, adjust your route and leave." The crew of the P-8 Poseidon responded: "We are conducting a legitimate military operation ininternational airspace.".[115]
On December 29, thePeople's Liberation Army (PLA)'sEastern Theater Command deployed units from itsground force,navy,air force androcket force to areas around Taiwan.[116] Eastern Theater Command spokesperson Shi Yi announced that the drills would take place in the Taiwan Strait and areas to the north, southwest, southeast and east of the island.[117] He said the exercises would focus on combat readiness, blockades of strategic areas, joint operations, and deterring "Taiwan independence separatist forces" and "external interference forces".[118][119][120] This military exercise was the 8th major drill held around Taiwan since 2022, as well as the first that had a publicly stated aim of deterring external involvement;[116][117][121] it has also been described by some sources as China's most extensive military exercise near Taiwan to date.[16] Separately, the PLA said live-fire exercises were carried out in areas north and southwest of Taiwan, and also initially designated five zones for live-fire drills from 8:00 AM to 6:00 PM local time on December 30,[120][122] which theChina Maritime Safety Administration later said had increased to seven.[123][124] Ships and aircraft were warned to stay away from the zones.[125] The zones crossed into Taiwan's territorial waters for the first time sincethe 2022 exercises that the Chinese military had held around Taiwan.[126]
On one of its Chinese social media accounts, the Eastern Theater Command released a video that was shot by a drone which purported to show a view ofTaipei 101.[127] In addition, theChina Coast Guard announced the start of patrols in waters nearMatsu andWuqiu.[128] A report by government mediaChina Central Television said the exercises included "maritime and airborne search-and-destroy operations, simulated strikes on land and live-fire naval drills" and focused on blockading thePort of Keelung andKaohsiung.[118][129] Commenting on the drills, Chineseforeign ministry spokespersonLin Jian said attempts by external forces to use Taiwan to contain China would only push the region closer to war.Taiwan Affairs Office spokespersonChen Binhua said the Taiwanese government was colluding with external forces to seek independence. Ministry of National Defense spokesperson Zhang Xiaogang said the PLA would not hesitate to fight pro-independence forces and organize anti-separatist and anti-interference actions in order to promote reunification and safeguard national sovereignty, unity, and territorial integrity.[117][130][131] Chinese state-run tabloidGlobal Times connected the drills to US weapons sales.[132]
At 3:00 PM Taipei Time, on 29 December, Taiwanese Deputy Chief of the General Staff for Intelligence Hsieh Jih-sheng stated Taiwan had detected 14 PLA warships and 14 Chinese Coast Guard vessels around Taiwan, as well as the detection of an "amphibious assault strike group" consisting of four ships in the southeastern water of Taiwan and 89 warplanes in the skies around Taiwan,[133] with 67 of them entering Taiwan's response zone under Taiwan's monitoring and response.[134] On the second day of the drills, several live rockets were fired fromPingtan Island.[135] The Eastern Theatre Command subsequently said it had fired rockets into waters both north and south of Taiwan and released a video of firing what appeared to be a mobile PCH-191 rocket launcher firing into the sea.[136] This was the first time China fired rockets into the Taiwan Strait since the 2022 exercises, with Taiwan'sMinistry of National Defense stating the rockets landed near Taiwan's 24 nautical mile line.[137] The ministry also stated that in the 24-hour period through 6:00 AM Taipei Time on 30 December, it had confirmed activity by 130 Chinese military fighters, drones and other aircraft around Taiwan, as well as 14 Chinese military ships and eight other Chinese ships.[138] Hsieh stated that the PLA had fired 27 rockets into waters to the north and southwest of Taiwan.[125]
After China began their December 2025 military drills (Justice Mission 2025), Taiwan'sCivil Aviation Administration said it expected more than 100,000 travelers to be affected by the drills, with 857 international flights impacted and 84 domestic flights canceled.[133] It added that routes toKinmen andMatsu were blocked, affecting around 6,000 travelers.[136]
The ROC Defense Ministry strongly condemned the Joint Sword-2024B Chinese exercises, stating that they were "irrational and provocative", and vowed to deploy "appropriate forces" to respond in order to defend its sovereignty.[73]
China's April 2025 military drills were widely condemned across Taiwan, including by President Lai Ching-te, ROC Mainland Affairs Council Vice Chairman Liang Wenjie, andKuomintangChairmanEric Chu.[139][140]
During the December 2025 drills, Taiwanese presidentLai Ching-te said that China's escalation of military pressure was part of an ongoingcognitive warfare campaign and "not something that a responsible power should do".[141][142]Presidential Office spokesperson Karen Kuo said Taiwan condemned the Chinese government for using its military to intimidate and threaten neighboring countries.[118] The Ministry of National Defense said the exercises undermined regional peace.[143] TheMainland Affairs Council said the exercises disrupted Taiwan's civil aviation and maritime traffic.[144]Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) spokesperson Wu Cheng said the drills undermined theKuomintang's claims that cross-strait exchanges would ease tensions. In response, Kuomintang chairwomanCheng Li-wun said the drills were caused by the DPP's cross-strait policies, and accused Lai Ching-te of provoking tensions. Taipei MayorChiang Wan-an of the Kuomintang condemned the drills as escalatory.[145]Taiwan People's Party chairmanHuang Kuo-chang condemned the drills, saying they would only deepen tensions.[146]
China's military called the military exercises a "stern warning to the separatist acts of Taiwan Independence forces."[73]
In April 2025,Zhu Fenglian, spokesperson for theTaiwan Affairs Office of theCentral Committee of the Chinese Communist Party, stated that China's operations conducted by theEastern Theater Command of thePeople's Liberation Army aroundTaiwan Island were a "resolute punishment" for the "provocations" ofLai Ching-te's administration in seeking "Taiwan independence", a solemn warning to the "Taiwan independence" separatist forces. He also framed the operations as a "necessary measure" to safeguard thenational sovereignty andterritorial integrity of China.[147]
Japanese defense ministerNobuo Kishi condemned the Chinese military's action, saying that some missiles fired by China in their August 2022 exercise landed inJapan's EEZ, and called the incident "a grave issue that concerns our country’s national security and the safety of the people".[148][149] Japanese Foreign MinisterYoshimasa Hayashi called for the military exercises to stop, stating that they had a "serious impact on the peace and stability of the region and the international community".[150] In response, Chinese foreign ministry spokespersonHua Chunying said during a press conference that the relevant waters between China (including Taiwan) and Japan have not been demarcated yet.[151]
On 1 April 2025,Japan's Chief Cabinet SecretaryYoshimasa Hayashi stated that the Japanese government was highly concerned about thePeople's Liberation Army's recent military exercises and was actively collecting and analyzing intelligence. Japan had also conveyed its concerns to China.[152]
In December 2025, theJapanese government conveyed its concerns to China over the military exercises, saying that it expected issues around Taiwan to be resolved peacefully through dialogue.[153]
On 1 April 2025,Chief of Staff of the Armed Forces of the Philippines General Romeo S. Brawner Jr. warned theArmed Forces of the Philippines to prepare for the possibility of amainland Chinese attack onTaiwan. He stated that the Philippines would be "at the forefront of rescue operations" in such a scenario. General Brawner emphasized that if a conflict breaks out in theTaiwan Strait,Manila would inevitably be drawn into the situation, and preparations must be made to evacuate the approximately250,000 Filipino workers currently residing and working in Taiwan.[154]
State news agencyKCNA reported that aDPRK foreign ministry spokesman supported the PRC's "righteous stand" and that North Koreans "denounce any external force's intervention in Taiwan".[155]
Russian spokesmanDmitry Peskov declared that China has thesovereign right to launch military drills around Taiwan and that Nancy Pelosi's visit provoked the tensions.[156] In April 2023, Peskov stated in an audio post to Telegram that China had the "right to respond" against the "provocative actions" against it.[58]
On 5 August 2022, US Secretary of StateAntony Blinken visited the Philippines and said that the US would seek to de-escalate tensions in the Taiwan Strait in order to keep the region safe and the international waterway open.[157] Anthony Blinken called China's actions a significant escalation, and brought up how China had been attempting to change "thestatus quo on Taiwan for quite some time". He called the military response "extreme, disproportionate, and escalatory".[158][159]
Together with Australia and Japan, the US signed a joint statement on 6 August that condemned the firing of missiles into Japanese exclusive economic zones and accused China of "raising tension and destabilizing the region."[160]
In the wake of the October 2024 military drills, the United States expressed that it was "seriously concerned" by the exercises, with the State Department stating that "The PRC response with military provocations to a routine annual speech is unwarranted and risks escalation," additionally urging China to "act with restraint" and avoid any further actions which may "undermine peace and stability" in the region.[73]
Following the April 2025 military drills,White House Press SecretaryKaroline Leavitt responded at a White House press briefing that the United States reaffirms its opposition to any unilateral attempt to change thestatus quo in theTaiwan Strait byforce orcoercion.Donald Trump, the President of the United States, emphasized the importance of maintaining peace across the Taiwan Strait.[161]
When asked about the December 2025 exercises, the United States PresidentDonald Trump said "I have a great relationship with PresidentXi [Jinping]. And he hasn't told me anything about it. I certainly have seen it" and stated "I don't believe he's going to be doing it" in an apparent reference to a possible invasion. He also dismissed concerns about the exercises by saying "They've been doing naval exercises for 20 years in that area. Now people take it a little bit differently".[162]
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European Union: Following the April 2023, drill, theEuropean Union (EU) expressed concern about the "intensification" of military activity around Taiwan, stating that the status quo should not be changed unilaterally, or by force, and urged restraint.[170] Following the Strait Thunder–2025A drill, the foreign ministers of theGroup of Seven (G7) andVice President of the European Commission and High Representative of the European Union for Foreign Affairs and Security PolicyKaja Kallas issued a joint statement, saying that "we, the G7 foreign ministers of Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, the United Kingdom, and the United States, as well as the EU High Representative, express deep concern about China's provocative activities, especially the recent large-scale military exercises around Taiwan. These increasingly frequent and unstable activities have increased tensions across theTaiwan Strait and endangered thesecurity and prosperity of the world. G7 members and the broaderInternational community are concerned about maintaining peace and stability in the Taiwan Strait. We oppose anyunilateral actions that threaten to undermine peace and stability, including resorting toforce orcoercion. G7 members continue to encourage the two sides of theTaiwan Strait to resolve issues peacefully throughconstructive dialogue".[171][172]Analyst Rebecca Wilkins argued China escalated its posture after Pelosi's visit, which expanded its military presence in the area, using the visit as justification to establish a new status quo in theTaiwan Strait.[173] Asecond incident occurred in April 2023, following a meeting with US Speaker of the House Kevin McCarthy;[174] eventually, China continued carrying out further large-scale military drills, often using actions perceived as hostile from Taiwan, the US, or other countries as excuses for doing so.[1][15]
China's initial August 2022 drill disturbed the region,[175] and the military drills triggered fears of a potential invasion of Taiwan in some corners of Western countries,[176][177][178] particularly in light of the2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine, and China's accelerating military buildup.[179][180][181][182] This fear has been heightened by the approaching "Davidson window", the nickname for China's potential window of opportunity when they will finally be able to mount an invasion of Taiwan. This term was coined after AdmiralPhilip Davidson's made remarks at 2021 Congressional hearing that China could try to achieve "reunification" with Taiwan on an accelerated timetable, by 2027, the year of the PLA's centennial, when they are expected to become a fully-intelligentized force capable of carrying out combined joint operations. GeneralMark Milley revealed that Davidson's belief stemmed from a speech from CCP General Secretary Xi Jinping, in which he had exhorted the PLA to move up their timetable for developing the capabilities necessary for invading Taiwan from 2035 to 2027.[183]
Following the Pelosi visit in August 2022, the ChinaPower Project at theCenter for Strategic and International Studies polled 64 leading U.S. experts on the People's Republic of China (PRC), Taiwan, and cross-strait relations, including 28 former high-level U.S. government (USG) officials from both Democrat and Republican administrations, as well as 23 former USG policy and intelligence analysts and 13 top experts from academia and think tanks.[184] Responses were collected from 10 August – 8 September 2022. The CSIS summarized the responses of the experts as follows:
Analysts have linked the escalation of the military drills during this crisis to China'sbroader rise as agreat power. As China's global influence grew over the 2020s,Beijing became increasingly willing to assert its interests in what it considers its core interests, with Taiwan being the absolute foremost of those.[185] The drills are widely interpreted as part of a long-term effort by China tonormalize sustain PLA operations around Taiwan, while improving the credibility of coercive options short of a kinetic war. Additionally, increasing attention has been drawn to 2027, a year frequently cited by defense analysts as a milestone by which the PLA is expected to have developed the full spectrum of capabilities needed for a potential blockade or invasion of Taiwan;[186] US intelligence has also noted that Xi Jinping ordered the PLA to prepare for potentially taking Taiwan by 2027.[187][188]
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