COVID-19 pandemic–related famines

Acute food insecurity estimates for 2020 using theIPC scale   Phase 1 (Minimal)   Phase 2 (Stressed)   Phase 3 (Crisis)   Phase 4 (Emergency)   Phase 5 (Critical)   No data   Not listed   Unclassified listed   At risk minority   Emerging hotspot
Date	1 December 2019 (2019-12-01)–present
Duration	5 years, 10 months and 3 weeks
Location	Multiple countries[1][2] Afghanistan Angola Brazil Burkina Faso Chad DR Congo Ethiopia Haiti India Mali Mauritania Myanmar Niger Nigeria Pakistan Senegal South Africa South Sudan Sudan Syria Uganda Venezuela Yemen Full listsee below
Cause	2019–2021 locust infestation,ongoing armed conflicts,COVID-19 pandemic (including associatedrecession,lockdowns andtravel restrictions)

During theCOVID-19 pandemic,food insecurity intensified in many places. In the second quarter of 2020, there were multiple warnings offamine later in the year.^[3][4] In an early report, the Nongovernmental Organization (NGO) Oxfam-International talks about "economic devastation"^[5] while the lead-author of the UNU-WIDER report compared COVID-19 to a "poverty tsunami".^[6] Others talk about "complete destitution",^[7] "unprecedented crisis",^[8] "natural disaster",^[9] "threat of catastrophic global famine".^[10] The decision of the WHO on 11 March 2020, to qualify COVID as a pandemic, that is "an epidemic occurring worldwide, or over a very wide area, crossing international boundaries and usually affecting a large number of people" also contributed to building this global-scale disaster narrative.^[11]

Field evidence collected in more than 60 countries in the course of 2020^[12] indicate, however, that while some disruptions (affecting the stability of the global food system) were reported at local (hoarding) and international (restrictions on exports) levels, those took place primarily during the early days/weeks of the pandemic (and the subsequent waves of lockdowns) and did not lead to any major episode of "global famine", thus invalidating the catastrophic scenario that some experts had initially conjectured.

In September 2020,David Beasley, executive director of theWorld Food Programme, addressed theUnited Nations Security Council, stating that measures taken by donor countries over the course of the preceding five months, including the provision of $17 trillion in fiscal stimulus and central bank support, the suspension of debt repayments instituted by the IMF and G20 countries for the benefit of poorer countries, and donor support for WFP programmes, had averted impending famine, helping 270 million people at risk of starvation.^[13] As the pandemic-incited food issues began to subside, the2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine triggered anotherglobal food crises compounding already extreme price increases.^{[14][15][16][17][18]}

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Exceptional weather patterns in 2018, including heavy rain, resulted in exponential growth of thedesert locust population in theArabian Peninsula andHorn of Africa during 2019.^[19] Locusts form swarms which then go on to destroy crops, reducing food availability for both livestock and humans. TheFood and Agriculture Organization and theWorld Bank state that 23 countries have been affected by locust infestations and an estimated US$8.5 billion in asset damages alone.^[20] An estimated 24 million people in associated regions were estimated to have had poorfood security in July 2020.^[20]

The new locust wave spreading across Africa in June 2020 also sparked fears that supply shortages, especially in nations likeSyria,Yemen, India andEthiopia, might escalate the famine in their regions.^{[21][22][23][24][25]}

Following the international spread of thecoronavirusSARS-CoV-2 and thus its associated illness,coronavirus disease 2019, several national governments implementednational lockdowns and internationaltravel restrictions in order to prevent the spread of the disease.^[26] As a result of these precautions andpanic buying,shortages related to the COVID-19 pandemic considerably rose whilst aid delivery capabilities andremittances from high-income nations fell. Simultaneously, many poorer workers in low- and middle-income nations also lost their jobs or ability to farm as a result of these lockdowns, whilst children could not receive school meals due to theeducation shutdown across much of the world.^{[citation needed]} The situation was further sustained into 2021 and beyond, with the2021–2022 global supply chain crisis affecting the delivery of food and the2021-2022 global energy crisis affecting the production of petrochemical fertilizer essential for food production.

The COVID-19 pandemic significantly disrupted global food security, affecting all four pillars: availability, access, utilization, and stability. Restrictions on movement, job losses, and supply chain disruptions led to increased food insecurity, particularly among low-income households. In developing countries, the pandemic exacerbated existing vulnerabilities, while developed nations also faced rising food insecurity due to economic downturns and disrupted food supply systems.^[27][28]

A confirmed 6,881,955^[29] people have died directly from COVID-19, but Oxfam indicated in their July 2020 report that when including those who have died as a result of lack of food, this number is considerably higher.^[1]Oxfam projected in July 2020 that by the end of the year "12,000 people per day could die from COVID-19 linked hunger",^[1] with theUnited Nations stating that a total of 265 million people face acute food insecurity – an increase of 135 million people as a result of the pandemic.^[30][31]

The chief of theWorld Food Programme warned in April 2020 that without continued financial support fromwestern nations, the 30 million people supported by the programme were at risk of death as a result of food insecurity in 2020.^[32][33][34] On 9 July, Oxfam released a report highlighting ten areas of "extreme hunger" alongside "emerging epicentres" of hunger, including areas in South America, Africa, the Middle East and South Asia.^[1] In the third quarter, the concerns were reiterated in theNew York Times and both theWorld Food Programme and theWorld Health Organization published statements noting the impact ofCOVID-19 lockdowns on livelihoods andfood security.

Overall, a review of evidence^[35] shows that in 2020, the biggest impact of COVID-19 on the different dimensions of food security has been on food access and affordability -and not on food availability, as was initially feared by many experts. Food systems' main function as a food supplier has thus been successfully maintained, with theNew York Times stating: "The unfolding tragedy falls short of a famine [...] Food remains widely available in most of the world, though prices have climbed in many countries. Rather, with the world economy expected to contract nearly 5 percent this year [...] hundreds of millions of people are suffering an intensifying crisis over how to secure their basic dietary needs.".^[36][13][37]

Furthermore, there has been a significant disruption of various sectors, among the main implications of the crisis for food production would be: agriculture, animal industry, chemical supplies, value of land, markets and supply chains and jobs in agriculture.^[38]

In sum, although the outcome of COVID-19 has been a sharp degradation in food security, the food system itself has not been the cause of that degradation; instead the origin of this food security crisis has been the contraction of the global economy.^[35]

Severalarmed conflicts anddisplacement crises areongoing, including those associated with theYemeni Civil War,Syrian Civil War,insurgency in the Maghreb,Russo-Ukrainian War andAfghanistan conflict. Food production and transport through areas in armed conflicts is poor, and both armed and political conflict results in large displacements includingrefugees of the Syrian Civil War and theVenezuelan refugee crisis. As a result, these areas are more vulnerable to famine and food insecurity is high.^{[citation needed]}

On 21 April, the United NationsWorld Food Programme warned that afamine "of biblical proportions" was expected in several parts of the world as a result of the pandemic.^[39][40] The release of2020 Global Report on Food Crises indicated that 55 countries were at risk,^[41] withDavid Beasley estimating that in a worst-case scenario "about three dozen" countries would succumb to famine.^[40][42]

The United Nations forecast that the following member states would have significant areas with poorfood security categorised as under "stress" (IPC phase 2), "crisis" (IPC phase 3), "emergency" (IPC phase 4) or "critical emergency" (IPC phase 5) in 2020:^[41]

It also raises alerts around:^[41]

An asterisk (*) indicates that country is considered to be an "extreme hunger" hotspot by Oxfam,^[1] as indicated in the July 2020 Oxfamreport. These ten key areas of "extreme hunger" that account for 65% of the total population facing crisis-level hunger (IPC phase 3 or above) include Afghanistan,DR Congo,Ethiopia,Haiti,South Sudan,Sudan, Syria, Venezuela,Yemen and the West AfricanSahel (including Burkina Faso, Chad, Mali, Mauritania, Niger, Nigeria and Senegal).^[1][2] It also noted "emerging epicentres" of hunger, alongside famine-stricken areas, in Brazil, India,Yemen,South Africa and theSahel.^[1][2] The United Nations has made an "urgent call" to improve data analytics in several countries which may be at risk, includingCongo, North Korea,Eritrea,Kyrgyzstan,Nepal, Philippines andSri Lanka.^[41]

Brazil has been classified as an "emerging epicentre" of hunger by Oxfam.^[1] 38 million people in Brazil are part of theinformal economy, with the vast majority entering unemployment as a result of local lockdowns.^[43] Severalfavelas have had poor water supply or water supply cut off during the pandemic, exacerbating worries about access to food and water.^[44] In March 2020, theNational Congress of Brazil approved a payment plan of 600reais (US$114) to informal workers. However, this has been criticised byCaritas, with the Brazilian executive director stating "now, it is just about food".^[43]

Haiti has been classified as an "extreme hunger" hotspot by Oxfam.^[1] Haiti has been inrecession for 1.5 years, with the cost of rice doubling since 2019.^[45] A drop inremittances, which account for 20% of the nation's GDP, as a result of an increase inunemployment in the United States and other western nations alongside has exacerbated the crisis. Half of all Haitian jobs are in agriculture, which has been severely hit by the pandemic. Pre-pandemic, theUnited Nations had forecast that 40% of Haitians would rely on international aid for food, and it is expected that this number will rise.^[45]

Following protests against police brutality and associated civil unrest, some cities experienced lack of food. This unrest can accelerate the flight of businesses in areas where the expectation of safe operation is low.^[46] For example, inChicago's South Side communities, there were few choices for groceries as most stores closed in order to prevent looting.^[47] InMinneapolis when protests against police brutality started, some neighbourhoods saw looting and vandalism.Lake Street suffered from a food desert with few grocery stores, pharmacies and other essential businesses open. These issues are compounded by local lockdowns, with many businesses also closed because of the pandemic.^[48]

The United States is the world's largest source of remittances, and money sent from workers in the United States abroad to low and middle income nations is vital for the economies of recipient nations.^[49][50] In 2019, remittances from the United States and other western nations accounts for a large proportion of many national GDP values, most notablyTonga (37.6%), Haiti (37.1%),South Sudan (34.1%),Kyrgyzstan (29.2%), andTajikistan (28.2%).^[14] However, theWorld Bank forecasts that remittances are expected to drop 19.7% to US$445 billion, which it states represents "a loss of a crucial financing lifeline for many vulnerable households" requiring many to redirect savings away from education towards solving food shortages.^[15] It is likely that this drop in remittance is associated with the lockdown andrecession in western nations, such as the United States, which increase joblessness and prevent many from sending money to families in their home countries. This is likely to add additional strain in areas at risk of food insecurity, especially in nations facing other crises.^[50]

Venezuela has been classified as an "extreme hunger" hotspot by Oxfam.^[1] Heightenedpolitical turmoil and extreme food shortages have led to thelargest refugee crisis in the Americas. Both those in Venezuela and those fleeing to neighbouring countries, such asColombia andEcuador, have been identified as at high risk of food insecurity.^[41] The United Nations has identified that at least one-third of the remaining population in Venezuela do not have enough food to sustain themselves.^[51] These shortages have been economically exacerbated by a fall in theprice of oil as a result of the2020 Russia–Saudi Arabia oil price war.^[16] 74% of Venezuelan families have adopted coping strategies to deal with the shortage of food, including eating less and accepting food as payment.^[51]

East Africa as a region is highly vulnerable due to the locust infestations that have recently plagued the area. Nations such as Ethiopia, Sudan, South Sudan have been fighting food insecurity since the2019-20 locust infestations began in June 2019 and are "extreme hunger" hotspots.^[1] One in five of all acutely food-insecure people live in theIntergovernmental Authority on Development region.^[52]

Ethiopia has been classified as an "extreme hunger" hotspot by Oxfam.^[1] Alongside the locust infestation and pandemic, Ethiopia faces insecurity due to conflict,extreme weather and long-lasting economic shock.^[52]

According toIPC statistics published in October 2020, there were over 400,000 refugees in Uganda atcrisis hunger levels, with a further 90,000 experiencing extreme hunger and 135,000 acutely malnourished children requiring urgent treatment, due to lockdowns and other COVID-related restrictions that have impacted livelihoods, coinciding with cuts in food aid.^[17]

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Food banks in the UK reported a major increase in uptake during the pandemic in 2020, particularly among previously middle-income households, following job losses and gaps in thewelfare system.^[18]UNICEF also distributed food in the UK for the first time in its 70-year history.^[53]

Syrians have been facing acute food insecurity as a result of the Syrian Civil War, which began in 2011. An estimated 17 million people in Syria – more than 50% of the remaining population – are considered acutely food insecure, with an additional 2.2 million at risk.^[54]Refugees of the Syrian Civil War are also at risk high risk of being food-insecure, with refugee camps in neighbouring Turkey and Lebanon highlighted as greatly at-risk by the United Nations.^[41] In June 2020, an international donor conference raised US$5.5 billion for humanitarian assistance in Syria.^[54]

Yemen is one of the most food-insecure countries in the world, with an estimated 2 million children under five suffering from acute malnutrition. Belligerents have been accused of embargoing or blockading food for civilians, likely as a result of general scarcity of resources.^[55][56] Yemen has also been affected by the locust infestation as well as acholera outbreak alongside the COVID-19 pandemic. The combined effects of these disasters has resulted in an exceptional humanitarian crisis. Before the pandemic in 2019, the United Nations had estimated 20 million Yemenis were acutely food insecure and another 10 million were at very high risk.^[57] The United Nations has requested US$2.4 billion in funds to help prevent widespread starvation in Yemen, with the death toll due to starvation expected to exceed deaths caused by war, cholera and COVID-19.^[58]

Described by Oxfam as the "fastest-growing" hunger crisis, and an "extreme hunger" hotspot, theWest AfricanSahel has 13.4 million people in need of immediate food assistance.^[2] The pandemic has exacerbated food insecurity concerns caused by theinsurgency in the Maghreb and Sahel as well as extreme weather patterns.^{[citation needed]}

On 23 July 2020, theAfrican Development Bank (ADB),United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR) and theG5 Sahel signed an agreement inGeneva,Abidjan andNouakchott. Under the pact, five countries of the Sahel region,Burkina Faso,Chad,Mali,Mauritania andNiger, were to receive $20 million to strengthen the response to theCOVID-19 pandemic.^[59]

During Cambodia'slockdown ofPhnom Penh in response to thepandemic in the country in April 2021, tens of thousands of residents of the capital reportedly requested emergency food aid, particularly in "red zones" where food markets were closed.^[60] Government managed food distribution struggled to meet demand in the city.^[61][62][63]

Afghanistan has been highlighted by Oxfam as an "extreme hunger" hotspot.^[1] Between January and May 2020, 84,600 Afghans fled their homes as a result of armed conflict in the area, with these internally displaced persons at high risk of food insecurity. Alongside this, the effect of the pandemic on neighbouring countries has resulted in Afghan migrants returning home, with 300,000 undocumented migrants estimated to have crossed the border fromIran, where many have become jobless.^[64] These migrants are also at-risk and have poor food security. The pandemic has also had an effect on logistics and aid supply that would otherwise normally be present.^[65]

Pre-pandemic,Bangladesh was considered a country with poor food security, with 40 million people considered food insecure and 11 million people acutely hungry.^[66] In addition to this, the World Food Programme has provided aid 880,000Rohingya people fleeing from theRohingya genocide ongoing inMyanmar,^[66] withPrime MinisterSheikh Hasini estimating that at least 1.1 million refugees have fled into Bangladesh.^[67] Many of these refugees rely on aid for food, water, education and shelter which have been put at risk by the coronavirus pandemic and locust outbreaks, in a nation already reliant on outside aid for its non-migrant population. Malnutrition, sanitation and access to clean drinking water are problems in many of these camps.^[66] Specifically, the United Nations in its Global Report on Food Crises singled outCox's Bazar where two state-run refugee camps – theKutupalong refugee camp and theNayapara refugee camp – are located.^[41]

India has been identified as an "emerging epicentre" of hunger by Oxfam.^[1] Around 90 million children who would normally receive school meals are no longer able to do so following the education shutdown across India.^[68] It has become a logistical challenge to deliver food, despite the fact that in 2019 India had 77.72 million tonnes in surplus grain stocks.^[69]T. M. Thomas Isaac,finance minister ofKerala stated that "an absolute shortage" of essential goods may arise.^[69] Theinformal sector represents 81% of labour in India, with many of these informal workers becoming jobless as a result of lockdown.^[70] This has left many unable to pay for food to feed their families. In response, theIndian government has set up "relief camps" to provide shelter and food to informal and migrant workers. However, many of these became overwhelmed with the large numbers of people requiring food and shelter.^[70] Access toslums to deliver essential services and aid has also been hampered by requirements forsocial distancing. According toThe Telegraph, approximately 90% of the Indian workforce are informal workers, who found themselves without any income during months of lockdown; in response the government introduced a £200 billion programme to provide free food supplies to 800 million of its citizens.^[71]

The July 2020 Oxfam report on coronavirus famines calculated that between January and July 2020, the course of the coronavirus pandemic spreading, the eight largest food companies (The Coca-Cola Company,Danone,General Mills,Kellogg's,Mondelez,Nestlé,PepsiCo andUnilever) gave a total of US$18 billion to shareholders individends, 10 times the size of the United Nations estimate for aid required to alleviate food insecurity in famine-stricken areas.^[1] Several of these companies, including Nestlé and PepsiCo wrote with the UN and several farmers'unions to theG20 for support in food distribution and food supply to low income nations.^[72]

• African Union: The Union issued a declaration, describing "deep concern" in the continent, urging member states to prioritise farmers and food production as essential services and called upon "UN agencies, multilateral development banks, donor countries and other partners to consider the emergency as urgent and step up and provide financial and other resources to help countries that do not have the resources to adequately respond to this crisis".^[73]
• European Union: The EU supported the release of the Global Report on Food Crises by the UN, and said it was "working to address the root causes of extreme hunger" as part of an "international alliance".^[74]
• United Nations: Dominique Burgeon, director of theFood and Agriculture Organization called for increased support for poorer and high-risk nations, stating "This is a matter of international solidarity, and humanity, but also a matter of global security... The world community needs to come together. We can avoid food shortages if we are able to support countries across the globe."^[75]

• Madagascar: Thegovernment of Madagascar reported a famine in the southern regions of the country beginning in June 2021,^[76] and it was still considered an ongoing disaster in July 2025, and is considered a consequence of the handling of theCOVID-19 pandemic in the country.^[76][77][78] The government of then presidentAndry Rajoelina attempted to curb the hunger by distributingbutane gas stoves, as well as asking for international assistance.^[79] Rajoelina faced strong backlash, with one incident involving a journalist confronting him during a press conference.^[80]
• United Kingdom: Foreign SecretaryDominic Raab announced a £119 million fund to tackle coronavirus and famine, stating "coronavirus and famine threaten millions in some of the world's poorest countries, and give rise to direct problems that affect the UK, including terrorism and migration flows."^[81]

• Shortages related to the COVID-19 pandemic
• COVID-19 pandemic in Africa
• COVID-19 pandemic in Asia
• COVID-19 pandemic in South America
• Famine scales
• Globalisation and disease

• Food security
• 2019 natural disasters
• 2020 natural disasters
• Impact of the COVID-19 pandemic

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