 Cyclone Forrest near peak intensity on November 20 | |
| Meteorological history | |
|---|---|
| Formed | November 12, 1992 |
| Dissipated | November 22, 1992 |
| Extremely severe cyclonic storm | |
| 3-minute sustained (IMD) | |
| Highest winds | 185 km/h (115 mph) |
| Lowest pressure | 952hPa (mbar); 28.11 inHg |
| Category 4-equivalent tropical cyclone | |
| 1-minute sustained (SSHWS/JTWC) | |
| Highest winds | 230 km/h (145 mph) |
| Lowest pressure | 916hPa (mbar); 27.05 inHg |
| Overall effects | |
| Fatalities | 34 total |
| Damage | $32 million (1992USD) |
| Areas affected | |
IBTrACS | |
Part of the1992 Pacific typhoon andNorth Indian Ocean cyclone seasons | |
Extremely Severe Cyclonic Storm Forrest, also referred to asTropical Storm Forrest[1] while in the western Pacific basin before its Thai crossover, was a powerfultropical cyclone that prompted the evacuation of 600,000 people inBangladesh in late November 1992. Originating from an area of disturbed weather near theCaroline Islands on November 9, Forrest was classified as a tropical depression three days later over theSouth China Sea. Tracking generally west, the system steadily organized into a tropical storm, passingVietnam to the south, before strikingThailand along theMalay Peninsula on November 15. Once over theBay of Bengal, Forrest turned northward on November 17 and significantly intensified. It reached its peak intensity on November 20 as aCategory 4-equivalent cyclone on theSaffir–Simpson hurricane scale with winds of 230 km/h (140 mph). Hostile environmental conditions soon affected the cyclone as it turned abruptly east-northeastward. Forrest madelandfall in northwesternMyanmar as a weakening system on November 21 before dissipating early the next day.
The majority of deaths associated with Forrest resulted froma plane crash on November 14 in Vietnam which killed 30 of the 31 occupants. In Thailand, the system produced significantstorm surge, damaged or destroyed 1,700 homes, and killed two people. Agricultural losses in the hardest hit areas were estimated at฿800 million (US$32 million). On November 20, as Forrest reached its peak intensity, fears arose acrossBangladesh that a repeat of thecatastrophic April 1991 cyclone would take place. As a result, mass evacuation plans were enacted across coastal areas of the country, with plans to relocate up to 2 million people. But the storm abruptly turned eastward, and the successful evacuation of 600,000 residents spared countless lives. Only two deaths were recorded, and overall damage was light, though half of all homes onSt. Martin's Island were damaged.
Extratropical cyclone, remnant low, tropical disturbance, or monsoon depressionThe second of four notable tropical cyclones in the Western Pacific in early November 1992, Forrest was first identified as an area of disturbed weather over the westernCaroline Islands on November 9.[1] Moving generally west-northwest,[2]convection associated with the system steadily organized and theJoint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) subsequently issued aTropical Cyclone Formation Alert (TCFA) on November 10.Development into a tropical depression was not anticipated until the system cleared thePhilippines; however, organization was slower than forecast and a second TCFA was issued late on November 11. Once west ofPalawan Island and over theSouth China Sea on November 12, the convective structure rapidly consolidated. The disturbance was designatedTropical Depression 30W at 12:00 UTC,[1] when it was 940 km (580 mi) east-southeast ofHo Chi Minh City,Vietnam.[2] TheJapan Meteorological Agency (JMA) followed suit six hours later.[3] Moving toward the west-southwest, the system steadily organized; later that day, it attained gale-force winds and wasassigned the nameForrest by the JTWC.[1] As the storm approached Vietnam, it turned southwest and moved parallel to the coast before resuming its westerly track. Forrest made its closest approach to the nation on November 14, passing 110 km (68 mi) south ofCà Mau province.[2]
The storm's proximity to land inhibited intensification, and it attained winds of 100 km/h (62 mph) as it moved over theGulf of Thailand on November 14. The next day, the storm madelandfall in theNakhon Si Thammarat province ofThailand.[1][4] While crossing theMalay Peninsula, Forrest lost most of its convection, though its circulation remained well-defined. Failing to reorganize, the system continued to weaken as it moved across theAndaman Sea.[1] At 06:00 UTC on November 16, theIndia Meteorological Department (IMD) began tracking the system as Depression BOB 08, although the agency quickly upgraded it to a deep depression and later a cyclonic storm.[5] Two days later, asubtropical ridge overSoutheast Asia nudged Forrest toward the north, and it regained organized convection. Early on November 18, the storm attained hurricane-force winds as favorableoutflow and upper-level winds aided intensification. Strengthening continued through early on November 20, at which time Forrest reached its peak intensity with winds of 230 km/h (140 mph), aCategory 4-equivalent cyclone on theSaffir–Simpson hurricane scale.[1] The IMD assessed three-minute sustained winds to have been 185 km/h (115 mph), making it a modern-day "extremely severe cyclonic storm", and itsbarometric pressure was estimated at 952mbar (hPa; 28.11 inHg).[3]
Forrest maintained its peak intensity for six hours before increasingwind shear disrupted it. Unexpectedly, the storm turned sharply northeast later on November 20, sparing most ofBangladesh from a direct hit. More dramatic weakening ensued on November 21 as Forrest neared landfall,[1] with itseye becoming obscure.[6] The cyclone made landfall along the northern coast ofRakhine State inMyanmar between 06:00 and 12:00 UTC with winds of 155–175 km/h (96–109 mph).[2] The IMD estimated Forrest to have been far weaker as it moved ashore, reporting peak three-minute winds to be 85 km/h (53 mph) at that time.[3] Once onshore, the high terrain of northern Myanmar further eroded the cyclone's circulation. Forrest dissipated early on November 22 over theMagway Region.[1]
Throughout the storm's existence in the Bay of Bengal, it was monitored by theERS-1 satellite. It became the first North Indian Ocean cyclone to be observed byscatterometer instruments, providing the data necessary to calibrate the device for minimizing directional ambiguity of its measurements.[7]
On November 14,Vietnam Airlines Flight 474 leavingHo Chi Minh City,Vietnam, heading toNha Trang, crashed after encountering rough conditions produced by Tropical Storm Forrest.[8][9] After descending below a safe altitude on approach to Nha Trang, theYakovlev Yak-40 aircraft deviated 6 km (3.7 mi) from the runway and impacted trees at the top of a ridge before crashing 350 m (1,150 ft) away. Of the 6 crew and 25 passengers (31 occupants), 30 were killed in the accident.[10] The only survivor wasAnnette Herfkens. Nine of the passengers were foreigners: four fromTaiwan, two from the Netherlands, and one each from France, Sweden, and the United Kingdom. Search and rescue efforts were conducted with two helicopters, two planes fitted with cameras, and two warships over nearby waters.[11] It took rescuers eight days to find the wreckage of the plane.[10]
Across theGulf of Thailand, all oil platforms were evacuated and no injuries were reported during the storm's passage. Damage, if any, that took place inMyanmar is unknown.[1]
Prior to the storm's arrival inThailand, officials initially evacuated 3,000 people from coastal areas.[12] Evacuations were soon increased to 20,000 following the risk of greater damage.[13] Tropical Storm Forrest struck theNakhon Si Thammarat province ofThailand on November 15 and was regarded as the worst in the region sinceTropical Storm Harriet in 1962.[4] Winds estimated up to 75 km/h (47 mph) and torrential rains battered areas along theMalay Peninsula. Widespread blackouts were reported throughout the affected areas.[13] Across Nakhon Si Thammarat province, two people were killed and 1,700 homes were damaged. The hardest hit area wasTha Sala District where 1,000 homes were damaged or destroyed. In thePak Phanang District,storm surge destroyed at least 100 homes and damaged 400 more. At least 16,000hectares (40,000acres) of rubber plantations and 1,600 hectares (4,000 acres) of shrimp farms were damaged as well. Between the two districts, damage amounted to฿800 million (US$32 million).[4] Offshore, waves were estimated to have reached 7 m (23 ft) in height.[12]
Minister of the InteriorChavalit Yongchaiyudh traveled to the affected areas on November 16 to oversee relief operations.[13]
On April 29 of the previous year, a catastrophicCategory 5-equivalent cyclone had struck Bangladesh killing an estimated 140,000 people. On November 20, 1992, the entire coast of Bangladesh was placed on red alert, the highest level of cyclone warning, and deputy director of theBangladesh Red Crescent Society, Harun-ur Rashid, advised thorough and efficient evacuations. Amid forecasts that Forrest's intensity at landfall would be greater than that of the April 1991 cyclone, officials and volunteers scrambled to warn residents in its path of the impending danger. An estimated 21,000 volunteers traveled to outlying islands and rural areas to urge residents to move to the mainland for safety. Following the 1991 cyclone, theRed Cross planned to construct 3,000 shelters across the coastline; however, by this time, only 44 had been completed. Of greatest concern was the lack of shelters onMaheshakhali, where 30,000 were killed in the earlier cyclone. Additionally, 21 makeshift camps housing 265,000 Muslim refugees fromMyanmar were in the forecast path.[14] An emergency meeting was called by theUnited Nations High Commissioner for Refugees to discuss the Muslim refugee situation.[15] The scramble to protect residents was noted by one foreign relief official as an attempt to "[not get] caught with our pants down like last year."[14]
Plans were made to evacuate 2 million people along the immediate coastline, including 300,000 in theCox's Bazar District alone. Harun-ur Rashid stated: "if necessary the volunteers have orders to use force to evacuate people."[15] Residents were readily willing to leave their homes in the District, in stark contrast to the complacency seen prior to the 1991 cyclone. Some people, traumatized by the events of the earlier storm, left at the "slightest hint of calamity".[16] By late on November 20, approximately 500,000 people had been evacuated.[17] Following a change in the cyclone's course, the focus of evacuations shifted closer to the Bangladesh–Myanmar border. Relocations in this new area included: 200,000 inChittagong, 55,000 inChokoria, 51,000 in Moheshkhali, and 40,000 onKutubdia Upazila.[18] An emergencyCabinet meeting was convened byPrime MinisterKhaleda Zia to discuss the storm. Government officials were similarly placed on emergency alert despite the day being a weekly holiday.Bangladesh Television cancelled all entertainment programs and relayed announcements on the cyclone non-stop. Relief Minister Lutfar Rahman Khan also convened an unscheduled, high-level meeting concerning the allocation of relief goods for eight districts.[19] Overall, 600,000 people evacuated inland or to one of 238 shelters.[20] During the evacuations, one person was killed in a stampede at a crowded shelter.[21]
The cyclone ultimately spared the country a direct hit, turning due east, weakening, and striking Myanmar on November 21.[20] Meteorologists regarded the storm's change of course and weakening as a "miracle", as large cyclones have historically caused tremendous loss of life and damage in Bangladesh.[22] OffSt. Martin's Island, the southernmost area in Bangladesh inhabited by 4,500 fishermen, high winds snapped radio lines to the mainland.[20] High tides flooded the island, damaging half of its dwellings. Fifty people sustained minor injuries,[23] and one was killed after being struck by lightning.[21] On nearbyShah Farid Island, 200 thatched homes were damaged; all 500 families had previously evacuated and were left unharmed.[23]Squalls affectedTeknaf Upazila,[20] damaging a food storeroom and office at one of the Muslim refugee camps.[23] Gusts inCox's Bazar peaked at 104 km/h (65 mph) as the storm passed 140 km (87 mi) south.[1]
