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Crimean consensus (Russian:Крымский консенсус) was a social period in Russia during which the feeling of solidarity and unity in the society was observed after the 2014annexation of Crimea. During it the support of the Russian presidentVladimir Putin has risen[1] and'round the flag' effect was observed in the Russian population.[2][3] 83-89% of Russians supported the annexation of Crimea as of March 2017, depending to the wording of the question. According to various political analysts the effect of "Crimean consesus" ended in 2018.
Theannexation of Crimea has caused arallying effect and a surge inpatriotic sentiment inRussia. The Russian population began to perceive their country as a "great power" again, as writes psychologist Anastasia Nikolskaya and economist Mikhail Dmitriev.[2]
According to sociologist Alexei Levinson, in the narrative of Russia’s "return" to greatness, the previous 25 years ofRussian history are seen as a "disease", andthe annexation of Crimea "heals the trauma" ofthe fall of the Soviet Union, returning the situation to normal, to the return of thegeopolitical confrontation with the United States as in the days of theCold War.[4]
As a result of this effect, pro-annexation and pro-Putinrallies started to occur in all bigRussian cities, receiving considerable attention onRussian state TV and official approval from the government. Particularly inMoscow on 2 March 2014, an estimated 27 thousand people rallied in support of theRussian government's decision tointervene in Ukraine.[5]
Trust in theRussian state media has increased, and the absolute majority of the Russian population praised and supportedPutin and both hisdomestic andforeign political actions.[citation needed]
The "Crimean Consensus" affected allsocial strata and remained resistant to the external and internal "destructive" factors involving Russia, such assanctions,falling oil prices,Rubledevaluation and decliningincomes. At the same time, there was a shift in priorities, basic materialistic demands increased(which was partly due to the fall in income during the 2015-2016 crisis) and the demand forpolitical andcivil liberties andthe rule of law decreased.[2][6]
As political scientist Alexander Shatilov writes, most of the Russian ruling elite took the annexation of Crimea as a "given", and some even sincerely supported it - especially those in the "patriotic" part of it, but also some moderate or even systemically liberal representatives of the elite supported the annexation. Others who opposed annexation still saw Crimea as a part of Russia, includingAlexey Navalny.[7]
Representatives of the creative elite who supported the annexation signed a petition on the website of the Ministry of Culture "Cultural figures of Russia are in support of the President’s position on Ukraine and Crimea":[8]
В дни, когда решается судьба Крыма и наших соотечественников, деятели культуры России не могут быть равнодушными наблюдателями с холодным сердцем. Наша общая история и общие корни, наша культура и её духовные истоки, наши фундаментальные ценности и язык объединили нас навсегда. Мы хотим, чтобы общность наших народов и наших культур имела прочное будущее. Вот почему мы твёрдо заявляем о поддержке позиции президента Российской Федерации по Украине и Крыму.
In the days when the fate of Crimea and our compatriots is being decided, Russian cultural figures cannot be indifferent observers with cold hearts. Our common history and common roots, our culture and its spiritual origins, our fundamental values and language have united us forever. We want the community of our peoples and our cultures to have a strong future. That is why we firmly declare our support for the position of the President of the Russian Federation on Ukraine and Crimea.
Some of them considered the annexation of Crimea to be "the restoration of historical justice" and hoped for a continuation, others condemned theEuromaidan, and others feared radicalfar-right forces coming to power in Ukraine.
According to Shatilov, subsequently the realization of the impossibility of reaching any agreements with the West on the Crimean issue and the broader geopolitical context led to the fact that the more pro-Western parts of the Russian elite switched to "defensive" positions.[9]
The annexation of Crimea has left a big effect in the Russian society.Levada polling center has conducted various sociological surveys and questionaries among Russians regarding theCrimean annexation and people's support in the government. The results are as noted below.
| Question | Period | Source | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Crimea should be... | March 2014, % | August 2014, % | [10] |
| a part of Russia | 64 | 73 | |
| a part of Ukraine | 14 | 4 | |
| an independent state | 11 | 15 | |
| No answer/difficult to say | 10 | 8 | |
| Period | Question | Source | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year | Month | Things go in the right direction, % | Things go in the wrong direction, % | No answer/difficult to say, % | |
| 2017 | May | 56 | 28 | 16 | [11] |
| 2016 | May | 49 | 33 | 18 | |
| 2015 | May | 60 | 23 | 17 | |
| 2014 | May | 60 | 23 | 17 | |
| April | 58 | 26 | 16 | ||
| 21-24 March | 60 | 26 | 15 | ||
| 7-10 March | 51 | 30 | 18 | ||
| February | 47 | 37 | 16 | ||
| January | 43 | 41 | 17 | ||
| 2013 | May | 40 | 40 | 20 | |
| 2003 | May | 35 | 51 | 14 | |
| 1993 | March | 22 | 48 | 30 | |
As of March 2017, 83-89% of Russians supported the annexation of Crimea by Russia (depending on the wording of the question), while 8-13% did not support it. And although the question of whether the annexation of Crimea brought more benefit or harm gives a less clear result (64% versus 19), no more than 12% are ready to return the peninsula to Ukraine, and 83% are categorically against it.
Not all Russians were affected by the Crimean consensus. Another part of the creative elite condemned the annexation and signed the appeal "Against the war, against the self-isolation of Russia, against the restoration of totalitarianism". Among the famous signatories are human rights activists (Lyudmila Alekseeva,Svetlana Gannushkina,Sergei Kovalev), writers (Andrei Bitov,Vladimir Voinovich,Viktor Erofeev), filmmakers (Mikhail Efremov,Eldar Ryazanov,Natalya Fateeva,Liya Akhedzhakova), musicians (Andrei Makarevich,Veronika Dolina,Elena Kamburova) and others.[9]
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The deputy head ofLevada Center Denis Volkov says that even some of those who consider the decision to annex Crimea to be a mistake are against returning it to Ukraine. Some motivate their opinion by the fact that it would be dishonest towards theCrimeans; "blocks the possibility of any talk about the return of Crimea to Ukraine" and the fact that it would be a "loss of face" or a "concession to external pressures".[citation needed]
The share of people who consider the annexation of Crimea a "problem", "shame", "failure of foreign policy" or "mistake", ranges from 5 to 20% of the population, depending on the wording of the question. This share is relatively higher amongopposition supporters,Moscow residents, and people focused on expanding contacts outsideRussia. But even in these groups opponents of the annexation of Crimea are aminority, according to Volkova. Opponents usually justify their position by the fact thatthe annexation of Crimea led to an increase in budgetexpenditures and adeterioration in relations withdeveloped countries, or that it started to "transform Russia into arogue country".[citation needed]
According to Nikolskaya and Dmitriev, by thepresidential elections of March 18, 2018, signs of erosion of the Crimean Consensus became "clearly visible". The results of sociological studies of that time showed a rise in a demand for change, social justice and a peaceful foreign policy, and a surge in civic activity. At the same time, a gap has emerged between the demands of the elites and the population.[2]
Levinson notes that during theWorld Football Championship that took place in June to July 2018, "fraternization suddenly began on the streets of Russian cities with foreigners who had come to the World Cup. Polls have recorded a sharp warming of attitudes towards America and the West". At the same time, it was announced that the retirement age in Russia would be raised and, according to Levinson, "the responsibility for which [Putin], was hesitating, nevertheless took upon himself and ruined everything" – thus the Crimean Consensus approached end.[citation needed]
The head of the Levada center Denis Volkov believes that "the first shifts in public opinion appeared by the end of 2015, as the confrontation with the West weakened," and "the announcement of the pension reform dealt a serious blow to the image of the Russian government. The effect of this decision is not limited to a simple drop in ratings; in parallel with this, the structure of support for the regime began to change, and strong differentiation appeared in the views of various segments of the population".[12]
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