Climate change today encompasses not only global warming, which refers to the alarming and continuous rise in the planet's average surface temperature, but also the extensive and multifaceted impacts this phenomenon has on Earth's climate.[1] These effects are manifested in various ways, including altered weather patterns, increased frequency and intensity of extreme weather events, melting ice caps, rising sea levels, and shifts in ecosystem dynamics.[1] Climate change accounts for historical long-term fluctuations in Earth's climate, highlighting the natural variability of climate over millennia but underscoring the unprecedented rate of current change attributed to human activities.[1]
Climate change presents significant risks to theCaribbean islands.[2] Key environmental changes anticipated in the region includerising sea levels, more intensehurricanes, longerdry seasons, and shorterwet seasons.[2] As a result,climate change is likely to impact the economy, which is heavily dependent on tourism, the environment, and the population of the Caribbean.[3][4][5]
The Caribbean is an archipelago of islands between North and South America. These islands includeAntigua,Aruba,Barbados,Bonaire, theCayman Islands,Cuba,Curaçao,Dominica,Guadeloupe,Grenada,Hispaniola,Jamaica,Martinique,Montserrat,Puerto Rico,Saba,Saint Croix,Sint Eustatius,Saint John,Saint Kitts,Saint Lucia,Saint Thomas,Saint Vincent,Sint Maarten,the Bahamas,Tortola, andTrinidad and Tobago. The average annual temperature of the Caribbean is 30.2 °C (86.4 °F).[6]
An increase in air andsea surface temperatures is expected to lead to the formation of strongertropical cyclones. Warm air sea surface temperatures are key factors in the development of hurricanes. As temperatures rise, the likelihood of a storm intensifying into a hurricane also increases. This warmth provides the energy that fuels the hurricane's development, creating stronger, more frequent hurricanes.[11][12]
In September 2017, the United StatesNational Hurricane Center reported that theNorth Atlantic basin was highly active with fourtropical storms forming, all of which developed into hurricanes. They noted a record high number of tropical storms that transitioning into hurricanes that year.[13] Among these storms, Hurricane Irma and Hurricane Maria struck the Caribbean islands. Both hurricanes reached Category 5 status.[14] The average temperature in Caribbean waters is 27°C (81°F). NASA reported that when hurricane Irma formed, the sea surface temperature in the Caribbean was 30°C (86°F).[13] The required temperature for the development of a major storm is suggested to be higher than 27 °C (80 °F).[12]
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Hurricanes classified as category 5 have wind speeds exceeding 253 kilometres per hour (157 mph).[11] Hurricane Maria recorded maximum sustained winds of 281.6 kilometres per hour (175 mph), while Hurricane Irma reached maximum sustained winds of 297.7 kilometres per hour (185 mph). In addition to their extreme winds, Hurricanes Irma and Maria produced significantly more rainfall than previous storms. Warmer air temperatures, allow the atmosphere to hold more moisture, which leads to increasedprecipitation. Multiple sources indicate that the recent strengthening and increased precipitation of hurricanes can be attributed to climate change.[15][14][16][17]
Hurricane Irma and Maria had a total of 510 millimetres (20 in) of rainfall. In Cuba, Hurricane Irma sustained precipitation was 270 millimetres (10.8 in) per hour. In Puerto Rico, Hurricane Maria had a sustained precipitation of 164 millimetres (6.44 in) per hour.[14]
Increased temperature has caused repeated and prolonged droughts, an increase in the number of very hot days, intense rainfall events causing repeated localized flooding, and rising sea levels that consume the beaches on which tourism in the region depends.[18] A temperature rise of 2°C above preindustrial levels can increase the likelihood of extreme hurricane rainfall by 4–5 times in theBahamas, 3 times inCuba andDominican Republic. Even to the richest nations in the region, it takes 6 years to recover from such event.[19]
Coral reefs are crucial to the Caribbean Ocean and play an essential role in the ecosystem. They provide critical habitat for marine life, serve as a natural barrier against storms, and significantly contribute to the economy through tourism and fishing. additionally, coral is utilized as a natural resource by local communities, being used in the production of cement and aggregate.
The rise in water surface temperature has had a significant impact oncoral reefs. In 2005 a model-based assessment was conducted to evaluate the effects of human-induced climate change on the Caribbean. The findings of this study suggest that increasing sea surface temperatures have led to widespread coral bleaching.Coral bleaching occurs when corals lose their symbiotic algae and photosynthetic pigments, leading to a white appearance. This loss of pigmentation can result from various stressors, including changes in water temperature, light, salinity, or nutrient levels. is an effect of the change in climate because of the rise in water temperature in the seawater.
The study indicated that the increase in sea surface temperature was attributed to human activity. It concluded that it is highly unlikely that natural climate variability alone could explain this event. Their model indicated that, without human influence, such an event would occur only once every 1,000 years.[20]
Rising sea levels due to climate change are expected to contribute tocoastal erosion. According to NASA, sea levels are projected to increase by 0.3–1 metre (1–4 ft) by 2050.[21] By 2100, sea levels in the Caribbean are anticipated to rise by 1.4 metres.[22]
This rise in sea level could significantly impact coastal communities in the Caribbean, particularly those located less than 3 metres (10 ft) above the sea. It is estimated that between 29 and 32 million people in Latin America and the Caribbean could be affected because they live below this threshold. The Bahamas and Trinidad and Tobago are expected to be the most impacted, as at least 80% of the total land area lies below the sea level.[23][24]
The islands provide crucial nesting sites and habitats for sea turtles, which are all at risk of endangerment due to coastal erosion and environmental changes throughout their life cycles. Damage to the beaches can negatively affect turtles that nest in the Caribbean. Additionally, sea level rise can influence where sea turtles choose to nest and alter nesting behavior.[25]
Coastal losses in the 22 largest cities of Latin America and the Caribbean are estimated to range between US$940 million and US$1.2 billion.[26] Key sources of income, particularly tourism, will be impacted, as many major tourist attractions, such as beaches and hotels, are located along the coast. A study conducted in 2004 reported that 12 million tourists had visited the Caribbean that year.
Multiple sources indicate that the Caribbean is facing significant challenges in addressing climate change.[27][26] The long history of colonialism, particularly focused on the extraction of goods like sugar, has hindered the economic development of these islands. As a result, many Caribbean nations find it difficult to compete in the current global economy. This longstanding colonial legacy has created a cycle of dependency, leaving many Caribbean economies reliant on global powers.[27]
The damages expected from climate change will weaken the economy of various islands as it will target some of the major sources of income, like tourism. It has been estimated that 25% to 35% of the Caribbean's economy relies on tourism.[23] Tourism could be significantly reduced if less tourists travel to the Caribbean due to increasing damage from hurricanes in the next century. It is expected that costs from hurricanes are expected to range between US$350 million to $550 million or about 11% to 17% of the currentGDP annually. The Bahamas, Haiti, and Jamaica are expected to be the islands most affected by a decline in tourism. Additionally, agricultural and rural areas in the Caribbean will face significant challenges due to climate change. By 2025 the damage costs in these regions could reach approximately US$3 million per year, and by 2100, they may increase to between US$12 million – $15 million.[26]
InCentral America, and the Caribbean, climate change poses significant threats to agriculture, as the region experiences frequent droughts, cyclones and the impacts of theEl Niño- Southern-Oscillation.[28] There are various adaptation strategies available, and these can differ greatly from one country to another. Many of the adjustments made are primarily focused on agriculture or water supply. Some effective adaptive strategies include restoring degraded lands, rearranging land uses across different areas, diversifying livelihoods, adjusting sowing dates, improving water harvest techniques, and even migration.[28] However, the lack of available resources remains a barrier to more substantial adaptations, meaning that the changes implemented are often incremental.[28]
One solution that researchers propose for reducing CO2 emissions is to increase themarket price of carbon. By raising the price of carbon, signals can be sent to consumers to decrease their consumption ofcarbon-intensive goods and services. It also encourages producers to seek alternatives to carbon-intensive inputs and creates market incentives for innovation and the adoption of low-carbon products and processes.
Addressing CO2 emissions is crucial for slowing down climate change in the long term, the true costs of climate change remain uncertain. This uncertainty stems from potential future technological advancements, the irreversible nature of policies aimed at tackling climate change, and the existence of non-market goods and services that arevulnerable to its effects. Researchers emphasize that the primary challenge in addressing climate change is the lack of enforceable policies.[29]
Climate change has had large impacts on the ecosystems and landscapes of the US territoryPuerto Rico. According to a 2019 report byGermanwatch, Puerto Rico is the most affected by climate change. The territory's energy consumption is mainly derived from importedfossil fuels.[33][34]
The Puerto Rico Climate Change Council (PRCCC) noted severe changes in seven categories: air temperature, precipitation, extreme weather events, tropical storms and hurricanes,ocean acidification, sea surface temperatures, andsea level rise.[35]
Climate change also affects Puerto Rico's population, the economy, human health, and the number of people forced to migrate.
Surveys have shown[vague] climate change is a matter of concern for most Puerto Ricans.[36] The territory has enacted laws and policies concerningclimate change mitigation andadaptation, including the use ofrenewable energy.[37] Local initiatives are working toward mitigation and adaptation goals, and international aid programs support reconstruction after extreme weather events and encourage disaster planning.[38]Medium-range estimates of Arctic carbon emissions could result from moderate climate emission mitigation policies that keep global warming below 3°C (e.g., RCP4.5). This global warming level most closely matches country emissions reduction pledges made for the Paris Climate Agreement...
"The IPCC doesn't make projections about which of these scenarios is more likely, but other researchers and modellers can.The Australian Academy of Science, for instance, released a report last year stating that our current emissions trajectory had us headed for a 3°C warmer world, roughly in line with the middle scenario.Climate Action Tracker predicts 2.5 to 2.9°C of warming based on current policies and action, with pledges and government agreements taking this to 2.1°C.
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