Climate change in Ethiopia is affecting the people inEthiopia due to increased floods,heat waves andinfectious diseases.[4] In theAwash basin in central Ethiopia floods and droughts are common. Agriculture in the basin is mainlyrainfed (without irrigation systems). This applies to around 98% of total cropland as of 2012. So changes in rainfall patterns due toclimate change will reduce economic activities in the basin.[5] Rainfall shocks have a direct impact on agriculture. A rainfall decrease in the Awash basin could lead to a 5% decline in the basin's overall GDP. The agricultural GDP could even drop by as much as 10%.[5]
Between 1960 and 2006, the mean annual temperature increased by 1.3°C. On average, the rate would be 0.28°C intemperature per decade.[6][7] A study from 2008 predicted further warming of 0.7°C and 2.3°C by 2020s and 1.4°C by 2050s.[8]
Ethiopia has two mainwet seasons per year. It rains in the spring and summer. These seasonal patterns of rainfall vary a lot across the country.[10][11] Western Ethiopia has a seasonal rainfall pattern that is similar to theSahel. It has rainfall from February to November (which is decreasing to the north), and has peak rainfall from June to September. Southern Ethiopia has a rainfall pattern similar to the one in East Africa. There are two distinct wet seasons every year, February to May, and October to November.[12][11] Central and eastern Ethiopia has some rainfall between February and November, with a smaller peak in rainfall from March to May and a second higher peak from June to September.[11]
In 2022 Ethiopia had one of the most severeLa Niña-induceddroughts in the last forty years. It came about due to four consecutive rainy seasons which did not produce enough rain.[13] This drought increased water insecurity for more than 8 millionpastoralists andagro-pastoralists in theSomali,Oromia,SNNP andSouth-West regions. About 7.2 million people neededfood aid, and 4.4 million people needed help to access water. Food prices have increased a lot due to the drought conditions. Many people in the affected area have experienced food shortages due to the water insecurity situation.[13]
The exact attribution of climate change to the occurrence of droughts and floods in Ethiopia is difficult. One study from 2022 stated for Ethiopia: "While regional models predict increase in rainfall, higher resolution analyses for Ethiopia suggest spatial variations in which there are both increases and decreases in the overall rainfall averages. An increase in the rainfall variability is also predicted, with a rising frequency of both extreme flooding and droughts that could seriously affect agricultural production."[4]
Significant droughts lead to drying of water resources and eventually water scarcity. Subsequent outcomes include poor hygiene and can lead to faeco-oral transmission of disease.[4]
In 2016, deadly floods hit Ethiopia, leaving at least 200 people dead and over 200,000 people homeless as seasonal rains came early to the country.[14] Causes for floods can bedeforestation, presence of rivers such as the Baro, Akobo, Gilo, and Alwero, in low lying homogeneous topography and climate change.[4]
Climate change affects many factors associated withdroughts. These include how much rain falls and how fast the rainevaporates again. Warming over land increases the severity and frequency of droughts around much of the world.[16][15]: 1057 In some tropical and subtropical regions of the world, there will probably be less rain due to global warming. This will make them more prone to drought. Droughts are set to worsen in many regions of the world. These include Central America, the Amazon and south-western South America. They also include West and Southern Africa. The Mediterranean and south-western Australia are also some of these regions.[15]: 1157
Higher temperatures increase evaporation. This dries the soil and increasesplant stress. Agriculture suffers as a result. This means even regions where overall rainfall is expected to remain relatively stable will experience these impacts.[15]: 1157 These regions include central and northern Europe. Without climate change mitigation, around one third of land areas are likely to experience moderate or more severe drought by 2100.[15]: 1157 Due to global warming droughts are more frequent and intense than in the past.[17]
Several social factors may worsen the impact of droughts. These are increased water demand, population growth and urban expansion in many areas.[18]Land restoration techniques, such asagroforestry, can help reduce the impact of droughts.[19]Climate change also affects thegross domestic product (GDP) of the country by reducing between 0.5% and 2.5% each year (estimate for 2010).[20]
In theAwash basin in central Ethiopia floods and droughts are common. Agriculture in the basin is mainlyrainfed (without irrigation systems). This applies to around 98% of total cropland as of 2012. So changes in rainfall patterns due to climate change will reduce economic activities in the basin.[5] Rainfall shocks have a direct impact on agriculture. A rainfall decrease in the Awash basin could lead to a 5% decline in the basin's overall GDP. The agricultural GDP could even drop by as much as 10%.[5]
Medium-range estimates of Arctic carbon emissions could result from moderate climate emission mitigation policies that keep global warming below 3°C (e.g., RCP4.5). This global warming level most closely matches country emissions reduction pledges made for the Paris Climate Agreement...
"The IPCC doesn't make projections about which of these scenarios is more likely, but other researchers and modellers can.The Australian Academy of Science, for instance, released a report last year stating that our current emissions trajectory had us headed for a 3°C warmer world, roughly in line with the middle scenario.Climate Action Tracker predicts 2.5 to 2.9°C of warming based on current policies and action, with pledges and government agreements taking this to 2.1°C.
Text was copied from this source, which is available under aCreative Commons Attribution 4.0 International LicenseClimate change by country | |
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