Casualty prediction is the science of predicting the number of deaths or injuries that may result from anepidemic,natural disaster or act of war such as the explosion of anuclear weapon,chemical weapon orbiological weapon.[1][2][3][4] (Casualty estimation is the process of estimating the number of injuries or deaths in a battle or natural disaster that has already occurred.)
TheNew York University Large Scale Emergency Readiness Project[5] appliesagent-based modelling to simulate the effects of a large-scaledisaster. Their initial project focused on modelling a 1998 Brazilian food-poisoning incident involving 8,000 injuries and 16 deaths.
Blast casualty prediction is routinely performed in the planning ofmilitary operations. For example, acruise missile attack was considered by the United States in 1998 forTarnak Farms in order to killOsama bin Laden. However, not enough was known about thecollateral damage effects of cruise missiles onmud huts. At the time there were estimated to be 100 women and children in the area, and in order to spare these civilians, the attack was not approved.[6]