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TheBush–Blair 2003 Iraq memo orManning memo is a secretmemo of a two-hour meeting betweenAmerican presidentGeorge W. Bush andBritish prime ministerTony Blair that took place on 31 January 2003 at theWhite House. The memo purportedly shows at that point, the administrations of Bush and Blair had already decided that theinvasion of Iraq would take place two months later. The memo was written by Blair's chief foreign policy adviser,David Manning, who participated in the meeting.

The memo has become controversial for its content, which includes discussing ways to provokeSaddam Hussein into a confrontation, with Bush floating the idea of painting aU-2 spyplane inUnited Nations (UN) colors and letting it fly low overIraq to provoke Iraq into shooting it down, thus providing a pretext for the subsequent invasion.

It also shows Bush and Blair were making a secret deal to carry out the invasion regardless of whetherweapons of mass destruction were discovered by UN weapons inspectors, in direct contradiction to statements made by Blair toBritish Parliament afterwards that Saddam would be given a final chance to disarm.

According to the memo, Bush is paraphrased as saying:^[1]

The start date for the military campaign was now pencilled in for 10 March. This was when the bombing would begin.

Bush also said to Blair that he "thought it unlikely that there would beinternecine warfare between the different religious and ethnic groups" in Iraq after the war. Five pages long, and classified asextremely sensitive, the existence of the memo was first alleged byPhilippe Sands in his bookLawless World (2005). It was then obtained by AmericannewspaperThe New York Times, which confirmed its authenticity.^[2]

UKLiberal Democrat party leaderMenzies Campbell said, with regard to the memo: "If these allegations are accurate, the Prime Minister and President Bush were determined to go to war with or without a second UN resolution, and Britain was signed up to do so by the end of January 2003."^[3]

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• The White House meeting that took us to war By Oliver King,Guardian Unlimited, February 2, 2006
• Blair-Bush deal before Iraq war revealed in secret memo by Richard Norton-Taylor,The Guardian, February 3, 2006
• Bush 'tried to lure Saddam into war using UN aircraft' by Rosemary Bennett and Michael Evans,The Times, February 3, 2006
• Fresh claims about the build-up to Iraq war byBBC World Service, February 3, 2006
• Bush Was Set on Path to War, Memo by British Adviser Says by Don Van Natta Jr.,New York Times, March 27, 2006

• 2003 in the United Kingdom
• 2003 in the United States
• Causes and prelude of the Iraq War
• George W. Bush administration controversies
• Memoranda
• Political scandals in the United Kingdom
• Presidency of George W. Bush
• Iraq War documents
• Premiership of Tony Blair
• United Kingdom–United States relations
• Labour Party (UK) scandals

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