Abellwether is aleader or an indicator of trends.[1]
Inpolitics, the term often applies in a metaphorical sense to characterize a geographic region where political tendencies match inmicrocosm those of a wider area, such that the result of anelection in the former region might predict the eventual result in the latter. Ineconomics, a 'bellwether' is a leading indicator of aneconomic trend.[1][2]
Sociologists apply the term in theactive sense to a person or group of people who tend to create, influence, or settrends.
The term derives from theMiddle Englishbelle-weder, which referred to the practice of placing abell around the neck of the leadwether (the castrated male sheep). A shepherd could then note the movements of the animals by hearing the bell, even when the flock was not in sight.[3]
The word was first used in the above meaning in the 15th century.[3]
In the world ofeconomics andfinance, a 'bellwether' is a leading indicator of aneconomic trend.[1][2]
In thestock market, a 'bellwether' is a company or stock taken to be a leading indicator of the direction in a sector, in an industry or in the market as a whole. Bellwether stocks therefore serve as short-term guides.JPMorgan Chase is a U.S. example of a bellwether. As one of the major banks in the United States, its stock sets the tone for the rest of the banking industry. JPMorgan Chase also has contracts with companies in other industries, so its performance is reflected in other sectors of the market.Tata Consultancy Services is similarly a bellwether for technology stocks in the Indian markets,BSE andNSE.[2]
Similarly, abellwether bond is "agovernment bond whose changes ininterest rate are believed to show the future direction of the rest of thebond market."[4]
The quarterlyBellwether Report, published by theInstitute of Practitioners in Advertising (IPA), monitors trends in expenditure in the UK advertising and marketing industry.
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Inpolitics, the termbellwether often applies in a metaphorical sense to characterize a geographic region where political tendencies match inmicrocosm those of a wider area, such that the result of anelection in the former region might predict the eventual result in the latter. In aWestminster-style election, for example, aconstituency, the control of which tends frequently to change, can have apopular vote that mirrors the result on a national scale.
Anelectoral bellwether can be award,precinct,town,county, or otherdistrict that accurately reflects how a geographic region (state, province, etc.) will vote during elections. Bellwethers in the United States typically change everyelection cycle due to shifts in the electorate. Bellwethers also differ by the type of elections: amidterm bellwether differs from apresidential bellwether or aparty primary bellwether.[5][6]
American statistician and political scientistEdward Tufte and his student Richard Sun defined electoral bellwethers (in the US) into the following categories:[6]
InAustralian federal elections, theDivision of Robertson inNew South Wales became the nation's new longest-running bellwether seat, continuously won by the party that also won government since the1983 federal election.
Previously, the electoraldivision of Eden-Monaro elected its Member of Parliament from the party which won government at every federal election from1972 until2016, when the record was broken afterLabor won the seat, while theCoalition won government. TheDivision of Lindsay in NSW, has elected its Member of Parliament from the party which won government in every Federal election since its creation in 1984 until 2016. Both Lindsay and Eden-Monaro lost their bellwether status at the2016 federal election, both electing Labor MPs, despite a narrow Coalition win nationwide.
TheDivision of Makin in South Australia was a bellwether division from 1984 to 2010, although ceased its bellwether record in 2013, when Makin stayed Labor as the Coalition regained power nationwide. Also, in terms of nationwide two party preferred vote,Eden-Monaro,Lindsay,Robertson andMakin have bucked the bellwether trend in the past by voting Liberal at the1998 federal election. In purely statistical terms, the state ofNew South Wales, which has the largest population of any Australian state or territory, could also be considered a "bellwether", as, until the2016 federal election the party which wins government has won the majority ofHouse of Representatives seats in that state at every election since1963. Unlike many bellwethers, these are cited by analysts solely for their record and are not usually attributed to demographic factors that reflect the median of Australia.
Below are seats that have been classified as bellwether seats won by the party forming government at least once at one of the past 10 elections. Below the winning party is thetwo-party-preferred vote.
| Electorate | State/territory | Winning party | |||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Government elected | |||||||||||
| 1996 | 1998 | 2001 | 2004 | 2007 | 2010 | 2013 | 2016 | 2019 | 2022 | ||
| Lib/Nat Coalition | Labor | Lib/Nat Coalition | Labor | ||||||||
| 53.63% | 50.98% | 51.03% | 52.79% | 52.70% | 50.12% | 53.49% | 50.36% | 51.53% | 52.13% | ||
| Seat winner | |||||||||||
| 1996 | 1998 | 2001 | 2004 | 2007 | 2010 | 2013 | 2016 | 2019 | 2022 | ||
| Bass | TAS | Liberal | Labor | Liberal | Labor | Liberal | Labor | Liberal | |||
| 54.57% | 50.06% | 52.06% | 52.63% | 51.00% | 56.74% | 54.04% | 56.09% | 50.41% | 51.43% | ||
| Braddon | TAS | Liberal | Labor | Liberal | Labor | Liberal | Labor | Liberal | |||
| 55.70% | 54.33% | 55.96% | 51.13% | 51.44% | 57.48% | 52.56% | 52.20% | 53.09% | 58.03% | ||
| Chisholm | VIC | Liberal | Labor | Liberal | Labor | ||||||
| 52.59% | 52.07% | 52.77% | 52.65% | 57.38% | 56.11% | 51.60% | 51.24% | 50.57% | 56.41% | ||
| Corangamite | VIC | Liberal | Labor | Liberal | Labor | ||||||
| 57.69% | 54.50% | 55.67% | 55.32% | 50.85% | 50.41% | 53.94% | 53.13% | 51.07% | 57.60% | ||
| Dobell | NSW | Labor | Liberal | Labor | Liberal | Labor | |||||
| 50.08% | 53.35% | 50.38% | 55.90% | 53.90% | 55.07% | 50.68% | 54.81% | 51.50% | 56.52% | ||
| Eden-Monaro | NSW | Liberal | Labor | Liberal | Labor | ||||||
| 54.76% | 50.18% | 51.69% | 52.14% | 53.40% | 54.24% | 50.61% | 52.93% | 50.85% | 58.20% | ||
| Forde | QLD | Liberal | Labor | Liberal National | |||||||
| 59.70% | 55.25% | 57.38% | 62.98% | 52.91% | 51.63% | 54.38% | 50.63% | 58.60% | 54.23% | ||
| Hasluck | WA | Did not exist | Labor | Liberal | Labor | Liberal | Labor | ||||
| 51.78% | 51.82% | 51.26% | 50.57% | 54.87% | 52.05% | 55.21% | 56.00% | ||||
| Leichhardt | QLD | Liberal | Labor | Liberal National | |||||||
| 54.18% | 54.05% | 56.39% | 60.00% | 54.01% | 54.55% | 55.68% | 53.95% | 54.17% | 53.44% | ||
| Lindsay | NSW | Liberal | Labor | Liberal | Labor | Liberal | |||||
| 51.58% | 51.28% | 55.47% | 55.26% | 56.78% | 51.12% | 52.99% | 51.11% | 55.04% | 56.34% | ||
| Longman | QLD | Liberal | Labor | Liberal National | Labor | Liberal National | |||||
| 61.59% | 50.92% | 52.72% | 57.66% | 53.57% | 51.92% | 56.92% | 50.79% | 53.28% | 53.03% | ||
| Lyons | TAS | Labor | Liberal | Labor | |||||||
| 51.31% | 60.61% | 58.17% | 53.68% | 58.78% | 62.29% | 51.22% | 52.31% | 55.18% | 50.92% | ||
| Makin | SA | Liberal | Labor | ||||||||
| 51.08% | 50.94% | 53.76% | 50.93% | 57.70% | 62.20% | 55.06% | 59.65% | 59.72% | 60.80% | ||
| McEwen | VIC | Liberal | Labor | ||||||||
| 52.18% | 51.04% | 51.20% | 56.42% | 50.01% | 55.32% | 50.15% | 57.85% | 55.02% | 53.28% | ||
| Page | NSW | National | Labor | National | |||||||
| 54.31% | 52.36% | 52.77% | 54.23% | 52.36% | 54.19% | 52.52% | 52.30% | 59.45% | 60.74% | ||
| Petrie | QLD | Liberal | Labor | Liberal National | |||||||
| 57.70% | 50.75% | 53.42% | 57.92% | 52.02% | 52.51% | 50.53% | 51.65% | 58.40% | 54.44% | ||
| Robertson | NSW | Liberal | Labor | Liberal | Labor | ||||||
| 53.56% | 52.01% | 56.98% | 56.81% | 50.11% | 51.00% | 53.00% | 51.14% | 54.24% | 52.26% | ||
| Solomon | NT | Did not exist | Country Liberal | Labor | Country Liberal | Labor | |||||
| 50.09% | 52.81% | 50.19% | 51.75% | 51.40% | 56.00% | 53.08% | 59.37% | ||||
In theCanadian province ofOntario,Sarnia—Lambton (and its predecessor ridings) voted for the winning party in every federal election from1963 until2011. This streak was broken in2015, when theConservative Party held the district while theLiberal Party won government, and the riding has become reliably Conservative since.Toronto—St. Paul's has only elected three opposition MPs since it contested its first election, as St. Paul's, in1935, although it has become reliably Liberal in recent years.Burlington andSt. Catharines currently share the longest active streak, having elected an MP from the winning party since1984. Also in Ontario,Peterborough—Kawartha (called Peterborough until 2015) has consistently elected the party which has won the provincial election since1977. In federal politics, the coterminous federal electoral districtPeterborough—Kawartha (also called Peterborough until 2015) elected a member of the winning party from1965 to1979 and 1984 until2021, inclusive.
InAlberta, the provincial electoral districtPeace River has elected only three opposition MLAs since the province was founded in 1905.
InManitoba, the federal district ofWinnipeg South has voted for the winning party in each election since it was re-formed in1988; a previous version of the same riding, which elected MPs from1917 until1974 inclusive, voted against the national winner only three times, most recently in1965. Also in Manitoba, the provincial riding ofRossmere, which has existed since1969, has voted for the candidate from the governing party in every general election since it was first contested except for that of1977; it also elected opposition MLAs at by-elections in 1979 and 1993.
Since the creation of the Federal Republic of Germany (thenWest Germany) in 1949, the state where the leadingparty list vote (Zweitstimmen) matched the party of the subsequently chosen Chancellor the most times isSchleswig-Holstein (with two misses:1969 and2005), followed by the state ofLower Saxony (with misses in1949, 1969 and 2005). Both states lie in the North of the country, neither containing many large industrial cities (the biggest beingKiel andHannover respectively), nor large rural Catholic populations, the traditional base of the SPD and CDU/CSU respectively. Schleswig-Holstein is also famous for having had several state elections result in a one-seat majority for the winning coalition and Lower Saxony's 1998 election (in whichGerhard Schröder was the SPD candidate) is often seen as a "trial run" for the subsequent federal election (which Schröder also won).
Of the first vote constituencies (Erststimmen), the constituency ofPinneberg (also located in Schleswig-Holstein) has voted for the party of the subsequently chosen Chancellor in all elections except for 1949.[7]
Both the 1949 and the 1969 elections were rather narrow, the former resulting in a one-vote majority in the election for chancellor and the latter resulting in a 12-seat majority that had broken down due to defections by 1972. In 2005 SPD and CDU/CSU were only separated by one percentage point and four seats in the final tally. In the2021 German federal election the SPD placed first in 12 out of 16 states, including Schleswig-Holstein and Lower Saxony as well as federally while being led by formerFirst Mayor of Hamburg,Olaf Scholz, the State ofHamburg borders both Lower Saxony and Schleswig-Holstein, but Scholz did not run in Hamburg during that election, instead representing the DistrictPotsdam – Potsdam-Mittelmark II – Teltow-Fläming II in Brandenburg (where he incidentally ran againstAnnalena Baerbock candidate for chancellor ofAlliance 90/The Greens, drawing additional media attention to the District).
Two individual seats,Valsad andWest Delhi, have successfully voted for the victorious party for the last elevengeneral elections in India.[8] Furthermore, the party that wins the majority of seats inDelhi has always gone on to form the national government since 1998.[9]
The state ofUttar Pradesh is also seen as a bellwether, with the national government having been formed the majority of times by the party that won the most seats in the state.[10]
Ireland has aproportional representation electoral system, in which politicians are elected by thesingle transferable vote. Bellwethers here can only be measured by the number of candidates from each side elected to Ireland's multiple-seat constituencies that elect an odd number of members. Between the1981 general election and2011 general election,Meath and its successors,Meath East andMeath West, have elected a majority ofFianna FáilTDs in years when Fianna Fáil formed the government, and a majority ofFine Gael andLabour TDs when those parties formed the government.
In New Zealand, there are three generally accepted bellwether electorates:Hamilton East andHamilton West, both based around the city ofHamilton,[11] andNorthcote onAuckland's North Shore.[12] Hamilton West and Northcote missed one election each since they were first contested in 1969 and 1996 respectively — the1993 election for Hamilton West and the2005 election for Northcote. Hamilton East, first contested in 1972, has missed three elections — 1993,1999, and 2005. They were all held by theNational Party inthe 2017 election althoughLabour formed the government after the election. Since theNational Party was still returned as the largest party in Parliament, however, the two electorates did in fact retain their bellwether status, albeit to a limited extent.
In the Philippines, the winner of thePhilippine presidential election has won inNegros Oriental in all instances since1935 except for1961 and2016, and inBasilan since its creation in December 1973 (first election in1981). After Negros Oriental voted for the runner-up in 2016,Agusan del Norte andLanao del Sur then had the longest active streak, having its provincial winners be the elected president since the1969 election. Lanao del Sur then voted for the loser in 2022, giving Agusan del Norte the longest streak.
For vice presidential elections,Pangasinan has voted for the winner in all elections save for1986 and2016.
In every general election to thePortuguese National Assembly since therestoration of democracy in 1975, the electoral district ofBraga has voted for the party or coalition that has won the most seats in the election. (Note that following theelections of 2015, a minority government was eventually formed by the second-largest party in the Assembly.)
In every general,European Union, mayoral (except 2009), or presidential elections since theCarnation Revolution, the Portuguese capital ofLisbon voted for the party or coalition that won the highest percentage in the elections.
Presidential elections
The counties that voted in the first round for the winning candidate:
The expression "Som Ljungby röstar röstar Sverige" ('AsLjungby votes, Sweden votes') was coined in the early-1970s, but more recently (in 2006) voting results inKarlstad,Kalmar, andHalmstad more closely resembled the result of the whole nation in elections to theRiksdag.[13] While since long having shifted right versus the national results, by2022 this had further extended. In that election Ljungby was 17 points more to the right than Sweden in general.[14]
According toStatistics Sweden, election results inKarlstad were the closest to the national results for three consecutive elections around the turn of the 21st century, a fact often highlighted by media throughGallup Polls showing voting intentions in the area.[15][13] Karlstad swung to the left in the 2010s and by 2022 was seven points to the left of Sweden.[16] Therefore, Karlstad is no longer a proper bellwether town.
By 2022, the status of bellwethers in Sweden often moved to post-industrial towns for differences between the various municipalities, but also some commuter towns being candidates. This status shifted rapidly due to the big cities moving to the left and smaller towns to the right. Among sizeable municipalities that came within half a point of the national average in 2022 includedAlingsås,Borlänge,Gävle andKarlskoga. These municipalites were won by the right coalition with narrow margins.[17] In addition, several smaller municipalities came close to the national coalition differential, although no locations closely mirrored exact party results.
United Kingdom constituencies of theHouse of Commons all see a change at least every few decades to avoidmalapportionment, apart from a few island seats. It is possible to dispute any long-term bellwether, citing such changes. However, those below have kept the bulk of their electors in the main, named constituency identified with the place they are named after.
Long-running bellwether constituencies
Former bellwether constituencies
While not strictly a bellwether,Sunderland South (Labour since 1964) was often used in election programming to predict the swing of a general election - principally because it was often the first to declare - though with variable accuracy.
Since Greater London formed during 1964–1965,Hammersmith and Fulham London Borough Council elections have matched those of the party who run (usually with the GLA, or more lately Mayor of London and Assembly) the most London authorities except went its "miss" to Labour's majority of London councils in 2010 (which has endured since) and the reverse miss in 1978 and 1982. In the latter two results no overall control was the local result.
Theconstituencies ofCunninghame North,Stirling andNa h-Eileanan an Iar have all elected MSPs from the party which won the plurality of seats in the election overall for everyScottish Parliament election.
Also, the constituencies ofAlmond Valley,Dundee City West,Edinburgh Eastern,Glasgow Southside,Kilmarnock and Irvine Valley andMid Fife and Glenrothes each elected an MSP from the largest party in the2011 and2016 elections. This continues the trend that theirpredecessor constituencies (Livingston,Dundee West,Edinburgh East & Musselburgh,Glasgow Govan,Kilmarnock & Loudoun andFife Central) achieved in the1999,2003 and2007 elections.
The American states with the current longest streak of voting for the winners in the electoral college areMichigan,Pennsylvania, andWisconsin; their streaks date back to 2008. The American bellwether states can also be determined in different ways (with respect to presidential elections):
Highest percentage for varying lengths of time
Highest percentage for a set length of time
Electoral record of the states for presidential elections, 1896–2024:[19]
Highest percentage of thecurrent party system, 1980-2024
Smallest deviation from the national average
Another way to measure how much a state's results reflect the national average is how far the state deviates from the national results. The states with the least deviation from a two-party presidential vote from 1896 to 2012[20] include:
States that were considered bellwether states from the mid-to-late 20th century include:
Historic bellwether states:
TheTerritory of Guam had no misses from1984 to2012 (100.0%); it lackselectoral college votes, but conducts apresidential straw vote on local election day. From 1996 through 2012, Ohio was within 1.85% of the national popular vote result.[24] Due to theElectoral College system, bellwethers of sufficient size form the focus of political attention and presidential campaigns asswing states. By 2016, Ohio and, with almost double its electors, Florida, were seen by political pundits and national campaigns as the most important swing states due to their large number of electoral votes and politically mixed breakdown. No Republican has won the presidency while losing Ohio, so the party campaigns there intensively.[25] The period from 1964 to 2016 ties Ohio with Pennsylvania, from 1828 to 1880, as the longest consecutive bellwether streak in US history. In the2020 electionJoe Biden defeated incumbentDonald Trump without winning either Ohio or Florida. He won Arizona, which no other Democratic candidate had won since1996, and Georgia (of similar population size to Ohio), which no Democrat had since1992. However, the rightward political shift of Ohio and Florida, which was modest in the 2016 and 2020 elections, accelerated greatly in 2024 with both states measuring double-digit margins toward the Republican party, more than ten points to the right of the national average. Thus, Georgia and Arizona are newer swing states, while Ohio and Florida appear less likely to swing back leftward.
InBrazil's direct presidential elections the winner has taken the state ofMinas Gerais in thelast-round of every election between1955 and2022.[26] The state has more than 21 million residents, includesBelo Horizonte (thethird-largest metropolitan area in Brazil) and has been birthplace of the record of nine presidents to date.[27]
Because of its varied topography, large area (larger thanMetropolitan France) and significant share of national population (10.1%, second only toSão Paulo), it is considered as a microcosm of Brazil's society and economics as a whole.[28]
Since the substantial role began in 1958, under theFrench Fifth Republic, the president has since1965 in the final (second) round always won: diminutiveArdèche and with about double its population each,Calvados,Charente-Maritime,Indre-et-Loire andLoire.[29][30] Together these account for more than 3 million residents. Each combines urban with rural and many touristic sites.
Since the1987 presidential election, the central, thus somewhat mountainous,province ofNorth Chungcheong is the only one of the 17 first-tier divisions in which the most voted candidate for thepresidency has consistently become the national winner. It has more than one and half million residents.
Since democracy was restored in1977, up to2023 two provinces have always voted for the winning party (Zaragoza andHuesca). TheAutonomous Community ofAragon hosts these provinces. Aragon is, moreover, the sole Autonomous Community to have done so.[31] It has more than a million residents and combines much rural land with mountains and socially diverse urban communities.
From the first competitive multi-party elections in1996,Changhua County, a west coastregion of Taiwan of more than a million residents, is where the preference has matched the elected president.
Political scientists have long regarded 1896 as a seminal, realigning election.