Authoritarian crackdown against political Islam in Egypt, Syria and other Arab countries including the election in 2014 of the Sisi government in Egypt
Rise ofISIS, resurgence ofAl-Qaeda in Yemen and Syria, and an influx of foreign fighters fighting for these groups
The term was first coined by Chinese political scientistZhang Weiwei during a debate with American political scientistFrancis Fukuyama on 27 June 2011. Fukuyama believed the Arab Spring movement wouldspread to China, while Zhang predicted the Arab Spring would soon turn into an Arab Winter.[13][14]
According to scholars of theUniversity of Warsaw, the Arab Spring fully devolved into the Arab Winter in 2014, four years after its onset.[15] The Arab Winter is characterized by the emergence of multiple regional wars, mounting regional instability,[16] economic and demographic decline ofArab countries,[17] and ethno-religious sectarian strife.[18] According to a study by theAmerican University of Beirut, by the summer of 2014, the Arab Winter had resulted in nearly a quarter of a million deaths and millions of refugees.[19] Perhaps the most significant event of the Arab Winter was the rise of theIslamic State, which controlled swathes of land in the region from 2014 to 2019.[20]
In 2020, several armed conflicts that could be seen as results of the Arab Spring were ongoing. The Syrian civil war, as of mid-2020, had caused massive political instability and economic hardship in Syria, with the Syrian currency plunging to new lows.[21] As of mid-2020, a civil war and subsequentintervention by Saudi Arabia continued.[22]
Government overthrown more than once Government overthrown Civil war Protests and governmental changes Major protests Minor protests Other protests and militant action outside theArab world
Political developments, particularly the restoration of authoritarianism and suppression ofcivil liberties in Egypt since3 July 2013, have been described as constituting a "military winter" that functioned in opposition to the goals of the Arab Spring.[24][25] Various militias and tribes have started fighting in Libya after a breakdown in negotiations.[26] Thearenas of Lebanon andBahrain were also identified as areas of the Arab Winter.[17]
Libya was named as a scene of the Arab Winter, together withSyria, by Professor Sean Yom.[26] TheNorthern Mali conflict was often described as part of the "Islamist Winter".[27] Political changes which occurred inTunisia, involving a change in government, as well as anISIL insurgency, were also indicated by some as a possible "heading towards Arab Winter".[23][clarification needed]
The first cases of usage of the Arab Winter term can be found since 1 February 2011.
Then, the Arab Winter term began circulating in the media in late 2012 and getting popular since then, referring to the deterioration of many Arab Spring conflicts into prolonging and escalating events of sectarian strife and armed violence. In its December 2012 publication,The Daily Telegraph referred to the year 2012 as the year of Arab Winter.[1]
According to scholars of theUniversity of Warsaw, the Arab Spring fully devolved into the Arab Winter four years after its onset.[28] This view was also supported by Prof. James Y. Simms Jr. in his 2015 opinion article for theRichmond Times-Dispatch.[29] In early 2016,The Economist marked the situation across Arab world countries as "worse than ever", marking it as the ongoing Arab Winter.[30]
According toThe Economist,Malta has "benefitted" from the Arab Winter, as tourists who might otherwise be in Egypt or Tunisia opt for a safer alternative.[31]
According to a study by theAmerican University of Beirut, as of the summer of 2014, the Arab Winter had resulted in nearly a quarter of a million deaths and millions of refugees.[19]
Political columnist and commentatorGeorge Will reported that as of early 2017, over 30,000 lives had been lost in Libya, 220,000–320,000 had been killed in Syria and 4 million refugees had been produced by the Syrian Civil War alone.[29]
The Arab Winter is still ongoing as of 2025. Casualties per crisis include:
Egyptian Crisis andSinai insurgency – marked the start of the Arab winter, casualty figure 5,000+ killed and counting – Conflict declared over in 2023, sporadic attacks continue
A Syrian refugee camp on the Turkish border for displaced people of the Syrian Civil War (2012)
The political turmoil and violence in the Middle East andNorth Africa resulted inmassive population displacement in the region.[33] As a result, "boat people", which was once commonly referred toVietnamese boat people, became frequently used, including internally displaced persons and asylum-seekers and refugees who had previously been residing in Libya, Syria, and Iraq have headed towards theEuropean Union.[34]
The attempts by some Libyans, Syrians and Tunisians to seek safety from the violence by crossing the Mediterranean sea have triggered fears among European politicians and populations of arrivals that might "flood" their shores. This has spurred a flurry of legislative activity and patrolling of the waters to manage arrivals.[34] Despite recent efforts at a common approach tomigration by the European UnionHungary andPoland have not been convinced yet.[35] Monetary support authorised by theGerman legislature for private rescue operations at sea have triggeredItalian government animosity.[36][37][38]
^Ahmed H Adam and Ashley D Robinson.Will the Arab Winter spring again in Sudan?. Al-Jazeera. 11 June 2016.[1]Archived 8 February 2018 at theWayback Machine "The Arab Spring that swept across the Middle East and succeeded in overthrowing three dictatorships in Tunisia, Egypt and Libya in 2011 was a pivotal point in the history of nations. Despite the subsequent descent into the "Arab Winter", the peaceful protests of young people were heroic..."
^Zhang, Weiwei (21 March 2012).China Wave, The: Rise Of A Civilizational State. World Century Publishing Corporation. p. 158.ISBN978-1-938134-03-6.Archived from the original on 23 September 2023. Retrieved5 September 2022.My observation of the Middle East has led me to conclude that, while many in the West cheer the Arab Spring, one shouldn't be too optimistic. I hope the region will do well, but it will be difficult, and the Arab Spring today may well turn into an Arab Winter in a not-too-distant future with the American interest undermined.
^"In Mali AQ achieved to infiltrate and take overTuareg insurgency. If AQ succeeds to keep the Arab Spring countries destabilized, this will lead to a viral reproduction ofAzawad scenario. AQ is the "Islamic Winter"."[2]Archived 9 October 2017 at theWayback Machine
^Radoslaw Fiedler, Przemyslaw Osiewicz.Transformation processes in Egypt after 2011. 2015. p182.
^"Displacement in the Middle East and North Africa: Between an Arab Winter and the Arab Spring". "In the midst of ongoing uprisings, violence, and political turmoil, widespread population displacement took place as a result of the conflict in Libya, the violence in Syria and upheaval in Yemen. In each of these contexts, the new waves of displacement took place in or to areas already struggling with previous waves, leading to multi-layered and complex crises."[3]Archived 9 October 2017 at theWayback Machine
This list includesWorld War I and later conflicts (after 1914) of at least 100 fatalities each Prolonged conflicts are listed in the decade when initiated; ongoing conflicts are marked italic, and conflicts with +100,000 killed with bold.
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