Because the East Antarctic Ice Sheet is over 10 times larger than the West Antarctic Ice Sheet and located at a higherelevation, it is less vulnerable to climate change than the WAIS. In the 20th century, EAIS had been one of the only places on Earth which displayed limited cooling instead of warming, even as the WAIS warmed by over 0.1 °C/decade from 1950s to 2000, with an average warming trend of >0.05 °C/decade since 1957 across the whole continent. As of early 2020s, there is still net mass gain over the EAIS (due to increasedprecipitation freezing on top of the ice sheet), yet the ice loss from the WAIS glaciers such asThwaites andPine Island Glacier is far greater.
By 2100, net ice loss from Antarctica alone would add around 11 cm (5 in) to the globalsea level rise. Further, the way WAIS is located deep below the sea level leaves it vulnerable tomarine ice sheet instability, which is difficult to simulate inice-sheet models. If instability is triggered before 2100, it has the potential to increase total sea level rise caused by Antarctica by tens of centimeters more, particularly with high overall warming. Ice loss from Antarctica also generates freshmeltwater, at a rate of 1100–1500 billion tons (GT) per year. This meltwater dilutes the salineAntarctic bottom water, which weakens the lower cell of theSouthern Ocean overturning circulation and may even contribute to its collapse, although this will likely take place over multiple centuries.
Paleoclimate research and improved modelling show that the West Antarctic Ice Sheet is very likely to disappear even if the warming does not progress any further, and only reducing the warming to 2 °C (3.6 °F) below the temperature of 2020 may save it. It is believed that the loss of the ice sheet would take between 2,000 and 13,000 years, although several centuries of high emissions may shorten this to 500 years. 3.3 m (10 ft 10 in) of sea level rise would occur if the ice sheet collapses but leaves ice caps on the mountains behind, and 4.3 m (14 ft 1 in) if those melt as well.Isostatic rebound may also add around 1 m (3 ft 3 in) to the global sea levels over another 1,000 years. On the other hand, the East Antarctic Ice Sheet is far more stable and may only cause 0.5 m (1 ft 8 in) - 0.9 m (2 ft 11 in) of sea level rise from the current level of warming, which is a small fraction of the 53.3 m (175 ft) contained in the full ice sheet. Around 3 °C (5.4 °F), vulnerable locations likeWilkes Basin andAurora Basin may collapse over a period of around 2,000 years, which would add up to 6.4 m (21 ft 0 in) to sea levels. The loss of the entire ice sheet would require global warming in a range between 5 °C (9.0 °F) and 10 °C (18 °F).
The bedrock topography of Antarctica, critical to understand dynamic motion of the continental ice sheets.[1]
The Antarctic ice sheet covers an area of almost 14 million square kilometres (5.4 million square miles) and contains 26.5 million cubic kilometres (6,400,000 cubic miles) of ice.[6] A cubic kilometer of ice weighs approximately 0.92 metric gigatonnes, meaning that the ice sheet weighs about 24,380,000 gigatonnes. This ice is equivalent to around 61% of all fresh water on Earth.[7] The only other currently existingice sheet on Earth is theGreenland ice sheet in theArctic.[8]
The Antarctic ice sheet is divided by theTransantarctic Mountains into two unequal sections called theEast Antarctic Ice Sheet (EAIS) and the smallerWest Antarctic Ice Sheet (WAIS). Some glaciologists consider ice cover over the relatively smallAntarctic Peninsula (also in West Antarctica) to be the third ice sheet in Antarctica,[9][10]: 2234 in part because itsdrainage basins are very distinct from the WAIS.[5] Collectively, these ice sheets have an average thickness of around 2 kilometres (1.2 mi),[3] Even the Transantarctic Mountains are largely covered by ice, with only some mountain summits and theMcMurdo Dry Valleys being ice-free in the present. Some coastal areas also have exposed bedrock that is not covered by ice.[11] During theLate Cenozoic Ice Age, many of those areas had been covered by ice as well.[12][13]
The EAIS rests on a major land mass, but the bed of the WAIS is, in places, more than 2,500 meters (8,200 feet) belowsea level. It would beseabed if the ice sheet were not there. The WAIS is classified as a marine-based ice sheet, meaning that its bed lies below sea level and its edges flow into floating ice shelves.[7][14] The WAIS is bounded by theRoss Ice Shelf, theFilchner-Ronne Ice Shelf, andoutlet glaciers that drain into theAmundsen Sea.[15]Thwaites Glacier andPine Island Glacier are the two most important outlet glaciers.[16]
Parts of East Antarctica (marked in blue) are the only places on Earth to experiencenegative greenhouse effect regularly during certain months of the year. At greater warming levels, the effect is likely to disappear because of increasing concentrations of water vapor over Antarctica.[18]
Antarctica is the coldest, driest continent on Earth, and has the highest average elevation.[19] Antarctica's dryness means the air contains little water vapor and conducts heat poorly.[18] TheSouthern Ocean surrounding the continent is far more effective at absorbing heat than any other ocean.[20] The presence of extensive, year-roundsea ice, which has a highalbedo (reflectivity), adds to the albedo of the ice sheets' own bright, white surface.[19] Antarctica's coldness makes it the only place on Earth to have an atmospherictemperature inversion occur every winter;[19] elsewhere on Earth, the atmosphere is at its warmest near the surface and becomes cooler as elevation increases. During the Antarctic winter, the surface of central Antarctica becomes cooler than middle layers of the atmosphere,[18] which makes greenhouse gases trap heat in the middle atmosphere, and reduce its flow toward the surface and toward space, rather than preventing the flow of heat from the lower atmosphere to the upper layers. The effect lasts until the end of the Antarctic winter.[18][19] Earlyclimate models predicted temperature trends over Antarctica would emerge more slowly and be more subtle than those elsewhere.[21]
There were fewer than twenty permanentweather stations across the continent and only two in the continent's interior.Automatic weather stations were deployed relatively late, and their observational record was brief for much of the 20th centurysatellite temperature measurements began in 1981 and are typically limited to cloud-free conditions. Thus, datasets representing the entire continent had begun to appear only by the very end of the 20th century.[22] The exception was theAntarctic Peninsula, where warming was pronounced and well-documented;[23] it was eventually found to have warmed by 3 °C (5.4 °F) since the mid 20th century.[24] Based on those limited data, several papers published in the early 2000s said there had been an overall cooling over continental Antarctica outside the Peninsula.[25][26] In particular, a 2002 analysis led byPeter Doran indicated stronger cooling than warming over Antarctica between 1966 and 2000, and found theMcMurdo Dry Valleys in East Antarctica had experienced cooling of 0.7 °C per decade.[27] The paper noted that its data was limited, and it still found warming over 42% of the continent.[27][28]
Antarctic surface temperature trends, in °C per decade. Red represents areas where temperatures have increased the most since the 1950s.[29]
Nevertheless, the paper received widespread media coverage, as multiple journalists described those findings as "contradictory" to global warming,[30][31][32] which was criticized by scientists at the time.[33][34] The "controversy" around cooling of Antarctica received further attention in 2004 whenMichael Crichton wrote the novelState of Fear. The novel featured a fictional conspiracy among climate scientists to fake evidence of global warming, and cited Doran's study as proof that there was no warming in Antarctica outside of the Peninsula.[35] That novel was mentioned in a 2006US Senate hearing in support ofclimate change denial,[36] and Peter Doran published a statement inThe New York Times decrying the misinterpretation of his work.[28] TheBritish Antarctic Survey andNASA also issued statements affirming the strength of climate science after the hearing.[37][38]
By 2009, researchers had combined historical weather-station data with satellite measurements to create consistent temperature records going back to 1957 that demonstrated warming of >0.05 °C per decade across the continent, with cooling in East Antarctica offset by the average temperature increase of at least 0.176 ± 0.06 °C per decade in West Antarctica.[29] That paper was widely reported on,[39][40] and subsequent research confirmed clear warming over West Antarctica in the 20th century, the only uncertainty being the magnitude.[41] During 2012–2013, estimates based on WAIS Divideice cores and revised temperature records fromByrd Station suggested a much-larger West-Antarctica warming of 2.4 °C (4.3 °F) since 1958, or around 0.46 °C (0.83 °F) per decade,[42][43][44][45] but some scientists continued to emphasize uncertainty.[46] In 2022, a study narrowed the warming of the Central area of theWest Antarctic Ice Sheet between 1959 and 2000 to 0.31 °C (0.56 °F) per decade, and conclusively attributed it to increases in greenhouse gas concentrations caused by human activity.[47] Likewise, the strong cooling at McMurdo Dry Valleys was confirmed to be a local trend.[48]
East Antarctica cooled in the 1980s and the 1990s even as West Antarctica warmed (left-hand side). That trend largely reversed in the 2000s and the 2010s (right-hand side).[49]
The Antarctica-wide warming trend continued after 2000, and in February 2020, the continent recorded its highest-ever temperature of 18.3 °C, exceeding the previous record of 17.5 °C in March 2015.[50] The East Antarctica interior also demonstrated clear warming between 2000 and 2020.[49][51] In particular, theSouth Pole warmed by 0.61 ± 0.34 °C per decade between 1990 and 2020, which is three times the global average.[52][53] On the other hand, changes in atmospheric circulation patterns like theInterdecadal Pacific Oscillation (IPO) and theSouthern Annular Mode (SAM) slowed or partially reversed the warming of West Antarctica, with the Antarctic Peninsula experiencing cooling from 2002.[54][55][56] While a variability in those patterns is natural, pastozone depletion had also led the SAM to be stronger than it had been in the past 600 years of observations. Starting around 2002, studies predicted a reversal in the SAM once the ozone layer began to recover following theMontreal Protocol,[57][58][59] and those changes are consistent with their predictions.[60]
Under the most intenseclimate change scenario, known asRCP8.5, models predict Antarctic surface temperatures to rise by 3 °C (5.4 °F) by 2070[61] and by 4 °C (7.2 °F) on average by 2100, which will be accompanied by a 30% increase in precipitation and a 30% decrease in sea ice by 2100.[62] The Southern Ocean waters "south of50° S latitude would also warm by about 1.9 °C (3.4 °F) by 2070.[61] RCPs were developed in the late 2000s, and early 2020s research considers RCP8.5 much less likely[63] than the more-moderate scenarios like RCP 4.5, which lie in between the worst-case scenario and theParis Agreement goals.[64][65] If a low-emission scenario mostly consistent with the Paris Agreement goals is followed, then Antarctica would experience surface and ocean warming of less than 1 °C (1.8 °F) by 2070, while less than 15% of sea ice would be lost and precipitation would increase by less than 10%.[61]
Contrasting temperature trends across parts of Antarctica mean that some locations, particularly at the coasts, lose mass while locations further inland continue to gain mass. Those contrasting trends and the remoteness of the region make estimating an average trend difficult.[66]
In 2018, a systematic review of all previous studies and data by theIce Sheet Mass Balance Inter-comparison Exercise (IMBIE) estimated an increase in theWest Antarctic ice sheet from 53 ± 29 Gt (gigatonnes) in 1992 to 159 ± 26 Gt in the final five years of the study. On the Antarctic Peninsula, the study estimated a loss of 20 ± 15 Gt per year with an increase in loss of roughly 15 Gt per year after 2000, a significant quantity of which was the loss of ice shelves.[67] The review's overall estimate was that Antarctica lost 2,720 ± 1,390 gigatons of ice from 1992 to 2017, averaging 109 ± 56 Gt per year. That would amount to 7.6 mm (0.30 in) of sea level rise.[67]
A 2021 analysis of data from four research satellite systems (Envisat,European Remote-Sensing Satellite,GRACE and GRACE-FO, andICESat) indicated an annual mass loss of about 12 Gt from 2012 to 2016 because of much greater ice gain in East Antarctica than was earlier estimated, which offset most of the losses from West Antarctica.[68]
TheEast Antarctic ice sheet can still gain mass despite warming becauseeffects of climate change on the water cycle increase precipitation over its surface, which then freezes and helps to accrete more ice.[69]: 1262 According to a study in 2023, the total area of Antarctic ice shelves increased by approximately 5,305 km² (about 0.4%) between 2009 and 2019, as the growth of the largest ice shelves in East Antarctica outweighed concurrent losses from ice shelves in West Antarctica and the Antarctic Peninsula.[70] Slight net increases in some isolated years or increases inice shelves are sometimes reported, but that does not contradict the net decrease that the Antarctic sea ice has undergone for decades.[71][72][73][74]
An illustration of the theory behind marine ice sheet and marine ice cliff instabilities[75]
By 2100, net ice loss from Antarctica is expected to add about 11 cm (4.3 in) to the global sea level rise.[69]: 1270 Other processes may cause West Antarctica to contribute more to sea level rise.Marine ice sheet instability is the potential for warm water currents to enter between theseafloor and the base of the ice sheet, once the sheet is no longer heavy enough to displace such flows.[76] Marine ice cliff instability may cause ice cliffs that are taller than 100 m (330 ft) to collapse under their own weight once they are no longer buttressed by ice shelves. That process has never been observed and occurs only in some models.[77] By 2100, those processes may increase the sea level rise caused by Antarctica to 41 cm (16 in) under the low-emission scenario and by 57 cm (22 in) under the high-emission scenario.[69]: 1270
Some scientists have given greater estimates, but all agree melting in Antarctica would have a greater impact and would be much more likely to occur under higher-warming scenarios under which it may double the overall 21st-century sea level rise to 2 m (7 ft) or more.[78][79][80] According to one study, if theParis Agreement is followed and global warming is limited to 2 °C (3.6 °F), the loss of ice in Antarctica will continue at the 2020 rate for the rest of the 21st century, but if a trajectory leading to 3 °C (5.4 °F) is followed, Antarctica ice loss will accelerate after 2060 and start adding 0.5 cm (0.20 in) per year to global sea levels by 2100.[81]
Normally, some seasonal meltwater from the Antarctic ice sheet helps to drive the lower-cell circulation.[82] However, climate change has greatly increased meltwater amounts, which threatens to destabilize it.[83]: 1240
Ice loss from Antarctica also generates more freshmeltwater, at a rate of 1100–1500 billion tons (GT) per year.[83]: 1240 This meltwater then mixes back into the Southern Ocean, which makes its water fresher.[84] This freshening of the Southern Ocean results in increased stratification and stabilization of its layers,[85][83]: 1240 and this has the single largest impact on the long-term properties of Southern Ocean circulation.[86] These changes in the Southern Ocean cause the upper cell circulation to speed up, accelerating the flow of major currents,[87] while the lower cell circulation slows down, as it is dependent on the highly salineAntarctic bottom water, which already appears to have been observably weakened by the freshening, in spite of the limited recovery during 2010s.[88][89][90][91][83]: 1240 Since the 1970s, the upper cell has strengthened by 3–4sverdrup (Sv; represents a flow of 1 millioncubic meters per second), or 50–60% of its flow, while the lower cell has weakened by a similar amount, but because of its larger volume, these changes represent a 10–20% weakening.[92][93]
Since the 1970s, the upper cell of the circulation has strengthened, while the lower cell weakened.[93]
While these effects weren't fully caused by climate change, with some role played by the natural cycle ofInterdecadal Pacific Oscillation,[94][95] they are likely to worsen in the future. As of early 2020s,climate models' best, limited-confidence estimate is that the lower cell would continue to weaken, while the upper cell may strengthen by around 20% over the 21st century.[83] A key reason for the uncertainty is limited certainty about future ice loss from Antarctica and the poor and inconsistent representation of ocean stratification in even theCMIP6 models - the most advanced generation available as of early 2020s.[96] One study suggests that the circulation would lose half its strength by 2050 under the worstclimate change scenario,[86] with greater losses occurring afterwards.[97]
It is possible that the South Ocean overturning circulation may not simply continue to weaken in response to increased warming and freshening, but will eventually collapse outright, in a way which would be difficult to reverse and constitute an example oftipping points in the climate system. This would be similar to some projections forAtlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC), which is also affected by the ocean warming and by meltwater flows from the decliningGreenland ice sheet.[98] However,Southern Hemisphere is only inhabited by 10% of the world's population, and the Southern Ocean overturning circulation has historically received much less attention than the AMOC. Some preliminary research suggests that such a collapse may become likely once global warming reaches levels between 1.7 °C (3.1 °F) and 3 °C (5.4 °F), but there is far less certainty than with the estimates for most othertipping points in the climate system.[99] Even if initiated in the near future, the circulation's collapse is unlikely to be complete until close to 2300,[100] Similarly, impacts such as the reduction inprecipitation in theSouthern Hemisphere, with a corresponding increase in theNorth, or a decline offisheries in the Southern Ocean with a potentialcollapse of certainmarine ecosystems, are also expected to unfold over multiple centuries.[97]
If countries cutgreenhouse gas emissions significantly (lowest trace),sea level rise by 2100 can be limited to 0.3–0.6 m (1–2 ft).[101] If the emissions instead accelerate rapidly (top trace), sea levels could rise 5 m (16+1⁄2 ft) by the year 2300. Higher levels of sea level rise would involve substantial ice loss from Antarctica, including East Antarctica.[101]
Sea levels will continue to rise long after 2100 but potentially at very different rates. According to the most-recent reports of theIntergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (SROCC and theIPCC Sixth Assessment Report), there will be a median rise of 16 cm (6.3 in) and maximum rise of 37 cm (15 in) under the low-emission scenario. The highest-emission scenario results in a median rise of 1.46 m (5 ft) with a minimum of 60 cm (2 ft) and a maximum of2.89 m (9+1⁄2 ft).[69]
Over longer timescales, the West Antarctic ice sheet, which is much smaller than the East Antarctic ice sheet and is grounded deep below sea level, is considered highly vulnerable. The melting of all of the ice in West Antarctica would increase the global sea level rise to 4.3 m (14 ft 1 in).[102] Mountain ice caps that are not in contact with water are less vulnerable than the majority of the ice sheet, which is located below sea level. The collapse of the West Antarctic ice sheet would cause around 3.3 m (10 ft 10 in) of sea-level rise.[103] That kind of collapse is now considered almost inevitable because it appears to have occurred during theEemian period 125,000 years ago, when temperatures were similar to those in the early 21st century.[104][105][106] TheAmundsen Sea also appears to be warming at rates that, if continued, make the ice sheet's collapse inevitable.[107][108]
The only way to reverse ice loss from West Antarctica, once it is triggered, is to lower the global temperature to 1 °C (1.8 °F) below the pre-industrial level, to 2 °C (3.6 °F) below the 2020 temperature.[109] Other researchers said aclimate engineering intervention to stabilize the ice sheet's glaciers may delay its loss by centuries and give the environment more time to adapt. That is an uncertain proposal and would be one of the most expensive projects ever to be attempted.[110][111] Otherwise, the disappearance of the West Antarctic ice sheet would take an estimated 2,000 years. The loss of West Antarctica ice would take at least 500 years and possibly as long as 13,000 years.[112][113] Once the ice sheet is lost, theisostatic rebound of the land that had been covered by the ice sheet would result in an additional 1 m (3 ft 3 in) of sea level rise over the following 1,000 years.[114]
Retreat ofCook Glacier in the Wilkes Basin during the Eemian ~120,000 years ago andPleistocene interglacial ~330,000 years ago was equivalent to 0.5 m (1 ft 8 in) and 0.9 m (2 ft 11 in) of sea level rise[115]
If global warming were to reach higher levels, then the EAIS would play an increasingly larger role in sea level rise occurring after 2100. According to the most recent reports of theIntergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (SROCC and theIPCC Sixth Assessment Report), the most intenseclimate change scenario, where the anthropogenic emissions increase continuously,RCP8.5, would result in Antarctica alone losing amedian of 1.46 m (4 ft 9 in) (confidence interval between 60 cm (2.0 ft) and 2.89 m (9 ft 6 in)) by 2300, which would involve some loss from the EAIS in addition to the erosion of the WAIS. This Antarctica-only sea level rise would be in addition to ice losses from theGreenland ice sheet andmountain glaciers, as well as thethermal expansion of ocean water.[116] If the warming were to remain at elevated levels for a long time, then the East Antarctic Ice Sheet would eventually become the dominant contributor to sea level rise, simply because it contains the largest amount of ice.[116][117]
Sustained ice loss from the EAIS would begin with the significant erosion of the so-called subglacial basins, such asTotten Glacier andWilkes Basin, which are located in vulnerable locations below the sea level. Evidence from thePleistocene shows that Wilkes Basin had likely lost enough ice to add 0.5 m (1 ft 8 in) to sea levels between 115,000 and 129,000 years ago, during theEemian, and about 0.9 m (2 ft 11 in) between 318,000 and 339,000 years ago, during theMarine Isotope Stage 9.[118] Neither Wilkes nor the other subglacial basins were lost entirely, but estimates suggest that they would be committed to disappearance once the global warming reaches 3 °C (5.4 °F) - the plausible temperature range is between 2 °C (3.6 °F) and 6 °C (11 °F).[117][119] Then, the subglacial basins would gradually collapse over a period of around 2,000 years, although it may be as fast as 500 years or as slow as 10,000 years.[117][119] Their loss would ultimately add between 1.4 m (4 ft 7 in) and 6.4 m (21 ft 0 in) to sea levels, depending on theice sheet model used.Isostatic rebound of the newly ice-free land would also add 8 cm (3.1 in) and 57 cm (1 ft 10 in), respectively.[120]
The entire East Antarctic Ice Sheet holds enough ice to raise global sea levels by 53.3 m (175 ft).[121] Its complete melting is also possible, but it would require very high warming and a lot of time: In 2022, an extensive assessment oftipping points in the climate system published inScience Magazine concluded that the ice sheet would take a minimum of 10,000 years to fully melt. It would most likely be committed to complete disappearance only once the global warming reaches about 7.5 °C (13.5 °F), with the minimum and the maximum range between 5 °C (9.0 °F) and 10 °C (18 °F).[117][119] Another estimate suggested that at least 6 °C (11 °F) would be needed to melt two thirds of its volume.[122]
If the entire ice sheet were to disappear, then the change inice-albedo feedback would increase the global temperature by 0.6 °C (1.1 °F), while the regional temperatures would increase by around 2 °C (3.6 °F). The loss of the subglacial basins alone would only add about 0.05 °C (0.090 °F) to global temperatures due to their relatively limited area, and a correspondingly low impact on global albedo.[117][119]
Polar climatic temperature changes throughout theCenozoic, showingglaciation of Antarctica toward the end of theEocene, thawing near the end of theOligocene and subsequentMiocene re-glaciation.
The icing of Antarctica began in the Late Palaeocene or middleEocene between 60[123] and 45.5 million years ago[124] and escalated during theEocene–Oligocene extinction event about 34 million years ago. CO2 levels were then about 760ppm[125] and had been decreasing from earlier levels in the thousands of ppm. Carbon dioxide decrease, with atipping point of 600 ppm, was the primary agent forcing Antarctic glaciation.[126] The glaciation was favored by an interval when Earth's orbit favored cool summers butoxygen isotope ratio cycle marker changes were too large to be explained by Antarctic ice-sheet growth alone indicating anice age of some size.[127] The opening of theDrake Passage may have played a role as well[128] though models of the changes suggest declining CO2 levels to have been more important.[129]
The Western Antarctic ice sheet declined somewhat during the warm earlyPliocene epoch, approximately five to three million years ago; during this time theRoss Sea opened up.[130] But there was no significant decline in the land-based Eastern Antarctic ice sheet.[131]
^abStarr, Cindy (4 June 2013)."Antarctic Bedrock: Bedmap2 Surface Elevation".Scientific Visualization Studio. NASA.Since 2009, NASA's mission Operation IceBridge (OIB) has flown aircraft over the Antarctic Ice Sheet carrying laser and ice-penetrating radar instruments to collect data about the surface height, bedrock topography and ice thickness.
^Shepherd, Andrew (18 January 2024)."Antarctica and Greenland Ice Sheet Drainage Basins".imbie.org. Retrieved31 January 2024.Antarctica is divided into the West Antarctic Ice Sheet, East Antarctic Ice Sheet and Antarctic Peninsula based on historical definitions plus information from modern-day DEM and ice velocity data.
^IPCC, 2021: Annex VII:Glossary [Matthews, J.B.R., V. Möller, R. van Diemen, J.S. Fuglestvedt, V. Masson-Delmotte, C. Méndez, S. Semenov, A. Reisinger (eds.)]. InClimate Change 2021: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Masson-Delmotte, V., P. Zhai, A. Pirani, S.L. Connors, C. Péan, S. Berger, N. Caud, Y. Chen, L. Goldfarb, M.I. Gomis, M. Huang, K. Leitzell, E. Lonnoy, J.B.R. Matthews, T.K. Maycock, T. Waterfield, O. Yelekçi, R. Yu, and B. Zhou (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA, pp. 2215–2256, doi:10.1017/9781009157896.022.
^Prentice, Michael L.; Kleman, Johan L.; Stroeven, Arjen P. (1998). "The Composite Glacial Erosional Landscape of the Northern Mcmurdo Dry Valleys: Implications for Antarctic Tertiary Glacial History".Ecosystem Dynamics in a Polar Desert: the Mcmurdo Dry Valleys, Antarctica. American Geophysical Union. pp. 1–38.doi:10.1029/AR072p0001.ISBN978-1-118-66831-3.
^Andrew N. Mackintosh; Elie Verleyen; Philip E. O'Brien; Duanne A. White; R. Selwyn Jones; Robert McKay; Robert Dunbar; Damian B. Gore; David Fink; Alexandra L. Post; Hideki Miura; Amy Leventer; Ian Goodwin; Dominic A. Hodgson; Katherine Lilly; Xavier Crosta; Nicholas R. Golledge; Bernd Wagner; Sonja Berg; Tas van Ommen; Dan Zwartz; Stephen J. Roberts; Wim Vyverman; Guillaume Masse (2014). "Retreat history of the East Antarctic Ice Sheet since the Last Glacial Maximum".Quaternary Science Reviews.100:10–30.Bibcode:2014QSRv..100...10M.doi:10.1016/j.quascirev.2013.07.024.hdl:1854/LU-5767317.ISSN0277-3791.
^"Antarctic and Greenland Drainage Systems".NASA Earth Sciences. Goddard Earth Sciences Division Projects: Cryospheric Sciences. 19 January 2024. Retrieved31 January 2024.Our definitions of the West Antarctic ice sheet (systems 18-23 and 1), the East Antarctic ice sheet (systems 2-17), and the Antarctic Peninsula (systems 24-27) allocate the drainage systems according to ice provenance with separation of East and West Antarctica approximately along the Transantarctic Mountains.
^Stewart, K. D.; Hogg, A. McC.; England, M. H.; Waugh, D. W. (2 November 2020). "Response of the Southern Ocean Overturning Circulation to Extreme Southern Annular Mode Conditions".Geophysical Research Letters.47 (22) e2020GL091103.Bibcode:2020GeoRL..4791103S.doi:10.1029/2020GL091103.hdl:1885/274441.S2CID229063736.
^Eric Steig; Gavin Schmidt (2004-12-03)."Antarctic cooling, global warming?".Real Climate. Retrieved2008-08-14.At first glance this seems to contradict the idea of 'global' warming, but one needs to be careful before jumping to this conclusion. A rise in the global mean temperature does not imply universal warming. Dynamical effects (changes in the winds and ocean circulation) can have just as large an impact, locally as the radiative forcing from greenhouse gases. The temperature change in any particular region will in fact be a combination of radiation-related changes (through greenhouse gases, aerosols, ozone and the like) and dynamical effects. Since the winds tend to only move heat from one place to another, their impact will tend to cancel out in the global mean.
^Crichton, Michael (2004).State of Fear.HarperCollins, New York. p. 109.ISBN978-0-06-621413-9.The data show that one relatively small area called the Antarctic Peninsula is melting and calving huge icebergs. That's what gets reported year after year. But the continent as a whole is getting colder, and the ice is getting thicker. First Edition
^Gavin Schmidt (2004-12-03)."Antarctic cooling, global warming?".Real Climate. Retrieved2008-08-14.At first glance this seems to contradict the idea of 'global' warming, but one needs to be careful before jumping to this conclusion. A rise in the global mean temperature does not imply universal warming. Dynamical effects (changes in the winds and ocean circulation) can have just as large an impact, locally as the radiative forcing from greenhouse gases. The temperature change in any particular region will in fact be a combination of radiation-related changes (through greenhouse gases, aerosols, ozone and the like) and dynamical effects. Since the winds tend to only move heat from one place to another, their impact will tend to cancel out in the global mean.
^Ludescher, Josef; Bunde, Armin; Franzke, Christian L. E.; Schellnhuber, Hans Joachim (16 April 2015). "Long-term persistence enhances uncertainty about anthropogenic warming of Antarctica".Climate Dynamics.46 (1–2):263–271.Bibcode:2016ClDy...46..263L.doi:10.1007/s00382-015-2582-5.S2CID131723421.
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^Phiddian, Ellen (5 April 2022)."Explainer: IPCC Scenarios".Cosmos. Retrieved30 September 2023.The IPCC doesn't make projections about which of these scenarios is more likely, but other researchers and modellers can. TheAustralian Academy of Science, for instance, released a report last year stating that our current emissions trajectory had us headed for a 3 °C warmer world, roughly in line with the middle scenario.Climate Action Tracker predicts 2.5 to 2.9 °C of warming based on current policies and action, with pledges and government agreements taking that to 2.13 °C.
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