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32nd Alberta general election

From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
Canadian provincial election

32nd Alberta general election

← 2023On or before October 18, 2027

All 87 seats in theLegislative Assembly of Alberta
44 seats needed for a majority
 
Danielle Smith 2014.jpg
Naheed Nenshi PRS Ottawa 2015-1.jpg
AB
LeaderDanielle SmithNaheed NenshiLindsay Amantea
(interim)
PartyUnited ConservativeNew DemocraticAlberta Party[a]
Leader sinceOctober 6, 2022June 22, 2024April 14, 2024
Leader's seatBrooks-Medicine HatEdmonton-StrathconaNone
Last election49 seats, 52.56%38 seats, 44.02%0 seats, 0.71%
Current seats47382
Seats neededSteadyIncrease 6Increase 42

IncumbentPremier

Danielle Smith
United Conservative



The32nd Alberta general election will elect members of theLegislative Assembly to serve in the 32nd Alberta Legislature. TheElection Act requires that the election be held on October 18, 2027, but it may becalled earlier.

In December 2024, the Electoral Boundaries Commission was mandated to propose new boundaries for 89 ridings, an increase from 87. If this work is completed and approved before the31st Legislature is dissolved, the election will be with these new boundaries.

Date of the election

[edit]

Under thefixed-date provisions of Alberta'sElection Act, "election day for a general election shall be the third Monday in October in the 4th calendar year following the election day of the most recent general election".[1] As the previous election was held in 2023, the next election is scheduled for October 18, 2027. However, theElection Act is subject to the powers of thelieutenant governor of Alberta to dissolve the legislature before that time, in accordance with the usual conventions of theWestminster parliamentary system.

Timeline

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2023

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2024

[edit]

2025

[edit]

Opinion polls

[edit]
Overall Polling with a local regression (LOESS) trend line for each party and a monthly average.
PollsterClientDates conductedSourceUCPNDPGreenAlbertaLiberalWLCWIPRPAOthersMarginof errorSample sizePolling methodLead
LegerN/AOct 10–12, 2025[p 1]44%39%3%2%9%<1%1%1%3.0%1,045Online5%
Cardinal ResearchN/ASep 17–20, 2025[p 2]43%36%4%5%11%1%2%2,626IVR7%
Angus ReidN/AAug 28–Sep 5, 2025[p 3]51%40%4%3%1%5%431Online11%
LegerN/AMay 23–25, 2025[p 4]48%34%2%2%9%<1%2%2%3.04%1,040Online14%
Abacus DataN/AMay 15–21, 2025[p 5]58%32%10%5.0%400Online26%
Janet Brown Opinion Research/Trend ResearchCBC NewsMay 7–21, 2025[p 6][p 7]52%38%1%1%3%<1%4%2.8%1,200Telephone14%
EnvironicsAlberta Federation of LabourApr 2–14, 2025[p 8]43%47%6%4%N/A1,003Online4%
Mainstreet ResearchN/AMar 18, 2025[p 9]51%39%2%3%1%3%2.8%1,228Smart IVR12%
LegerN/AJan 24–26, 2025[p 10]51%36%2%3%5%1%2%3.1%1,002Online15%
Cardinal ResearchN/ASep 17–28, 2024[p 11]50%43%2%1%4%2.5%1,553Telephone7%
LegerN/AAug 2–5, 2024[p 12]48%40%3%4%3%2%2%3.1%1,005Online8%
Sovereign North StrategiesWestern StandardJul 6–11, 2024[p 13][p 14]47%46%1%4%2%2.4%2,861Telephone1%
Abacus DataN/AJun 25–28, 2024[p 15]54%40%6%3.31%1,000Online14%
June 22, 2024Naheed Nenshi elected leader of theAlberta NDP.
LegerN/AMay 22–25, 2024[p 16]47%43%6%4%3.1%1,009Online4%
LegerN/AMar 22–24, 2024[p 17]46%44%1%4%1%1%2%3.1%1,002Online2%
Abacus DataN/AMar 14–21, 2024[p 18]55%40%2%2%3.1%1,000Online15%
Pallas DataN/AMar 12–13, 2024[p 19]52%45%3%3.3%868IVR7%
LegerN/AMar 8–11, 2024[p 20][p 21]49%41%6%4%3.1%1,001Online8%
LegerN/AFeb 9–12, 2024[p 22]49%42%5%4%3.1%1,002Online7%
LegerN/AJan 19–22, 2024[p 23]51%40%9%3.1%1,001Online11%
LegerN/AJan 12–15, 2024[p 24]50%43%3%4%3.1%1,012Online7%
Angus ReidN/ANov 24 – Dec 1, 2023[p 25][p 26]53%40%3%2%1%5%392Online13%
LegerN/AOct 27–30, 2023[p 27]46%47%5%2%3.1%1,001Online1%
LegerN/ASep 15–18, 2023[p 28]49%39%2%4%3%1%2%3.1%1,001Online10%
2023 general electionMay 29, 202352.63%44.05%0.76%0.71%0.24%0.24%0.05%0.01%1.31%8.58%
Hypothetical polling
Voting intention with the Alberta Party being rebranded to the Progressive Conservatives, pending approval from Elections Alberta
PollsterClientDates conductedSourceUCPNDPPCLiberalRPAOthersMarginof errorSample sizePolling methodLead
Cardinal ResearchN/ASep 17–20, 2025[p 29]25%30%28%4%11%2%2%2,626IVR2%

Notes

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  1. ^The party has announced its intent to rebrand as theAlberta Progressive Conservative Party pending approval byElections Alberta

References

[edit]
  1. ^"Alberta's Next Election".Elections Alberta.Archived from the original on June 9, 2024. RetrievedJune 9, 2024.
  2. ^"Alberta Votes 2023".CBC News. RetrievedJune 23, 2025.
  3. ^"Premier Smith appoints new Alberta cabinet with many familiar faces in different portfolios".CTV News. June 9, 2023.Archived from the original on June 23, 2023. RetrievedAugust 16, 2023.
  4. ^"'Did a remarkable job': Cooper reelected as Speaker in Alberta legislature".CTV News. June 20, 2023.Archived from the original on August 16, 2023. RetrievedAugust 16, 2023.
  5. ^"Final Message from Jordan Wilkie as Leader of the Green Party of Alberta".Facebook.Green Party of Alberta. September 18, 2023.Archived from the original on October 15, 2023. RetrievedSeptember 18, 2023.
  6. ^"Jordan Wilkie".CTV News Edmonton.Bell Media. Archived fromthe original on October 5, 2023. RetrievedOctober 5, 2023.
  7. ^"THE ALBERTA PARTY POLITICAL ASSOCIATION ANNOUNCES THE RESIGNATION OF LEADER BARRY MORISHITA".Alberta Party.Archived from the original on November 9, 2023. RetrievedNovember 10, 2023.
  8. ^"Barry Morishita resigns as leader of seatless Alberta Party".CTV Edmonton. November 8, 2023.Archived from the original on November 10, 2023. RetrievedNovember 10, 2023.
  9. ^Mertz, Emily (January 16, 2024)."Former Alberta premier Rachel Notley stepping down as NDP leader".Global News.Archived from the original on January 16, 2024. RetrievedJanuary 16, 2024.
  10. ^"Bill 21: Emergency Statutes Amendment Act, 2024".Legislative Assembly of Alberta. RetrievedJune 9, 2024.
  11. ^"Former Calgary mayor Naheed Nenshi named Alberta NDP leader in landslide victory | Globalnews.ca".Global News. RetrievedOctober 22, 2024.
  12. ^"Shannon Phillips stepping down as Lethbridge-West MLA".CTV Calgary. June 10, 2024. RetrievedOctober 22, 2024.
  13. ^"Alberta politician who compared transgender kids to feces rejoins UCP caucus".The Globe and Mail. October 9, 2024. RetrievedOctober 22, 2024.
  14. ^"Lethbridge-West byelection set for Dec. 18".CBC Calgary. November 20, 2024. RetrievedNovember 20, 2024.
  15. ^"Bill 31: Justice Statutes Amendment Act, 2024".Legislative Assembly of Alberta. RetrievedJanuary 9, 2025.
  16. ^"Lethbridge-West byelection results: NDP claim victory, Rob Miyashiro to become MLA".CBC News. RetrievedJune 23, 2025.
  17. ^Snowdon, Wallis."Former Albert NDP premier Rachel Notley to resign as MLA".CBC News. RetrievedJune 23, 2025.
  18. ^"Alberta NDP Leader Naheed Nenshi acclaimed as party's candidate for Edmonton-Strathcona".Global News. RetrievedJanuary 24, 2025.
  19. ^"Rural Alberta MLA booted from UCP caucus for refusing to support budget | Globalnews.ca".globalnews.ca. RetrievedMarch 8, 2025.
  20. ^Johnson, Lisa (March 25, 2025)."Longtime Edmonton Alberta NDP MLA is resigning his provincial seat".Edmonton Journal.The Canadian Press. RetrievedMarch 27, 2025.
  21. ^French, Janet."United Conservative Party expels MLA who pushed for public probe of health contracting".CBC News. RetrievedApril 16, 2025.
  22. ^"Ric McIver voted in as new Alberta legislature Speaker".
  23. ^Climenhaga, David (May 8, 2025)."Nathan Cooper, the Alberta Legislature's Speaker, set to move to Washington D.C. as provincial trade representative".Alberta Politics. RetrievedMay 29, 2025.
  24. ^"Nathan Cooper".Legislative Assembly of Alberta. RetrievedMay 27, 2025.
  25. ^Singleton, Dan (May 25, 2025)."Premier Danielle Smith discusses separation, pension plan in Olds town hall-style meeting".The Albertan.Great West Media. RetrievedMay 27, 2025.
  26. ^Lepine, Hannah."Voters go to the polls in three Alberta byelections".CTV News. RetrievedJune 23, 2025.
  27. ^https://edmontonjournal.com/news/politics/former-united-conservative-mlas-rebrand-alberta-party-progressive-conservative-party

Opinion poll sources

[edit]
  1. ^"Government of Alberta Report Card"(PDF).Leger. October 29, 2025. RetrievedOctober 29, 2025.
  2. ^"Alberta Provincial Poll Sept 2025".Cardinal Research. September 24, 2025. RetrievedSeptember 24, 2025.
  3. ^"Cross-Canada Outlook – Provincial Issues, Politics, and Performance: Alberta".Angus Reid Institute. September 12, 2025. RetrievedSeptember 12, 2025.
  4. ^"Government of Alberta Report Card: June 2025"(PDF).Leger. June 12, 2025. RetrievedJune 12, 2025.
  5. ^Coletto, David (June 5, 2025)."Is Alberta Really Leaving Canada? What Canadians and Albertans Think About the Prospect of Alberta Sovereignty".Abacus Data. RetrievedJune 6, 2025.
  6. ^DeCillia, Brooks (May 28, 2025)."Poll suggests Alberta voters' honeymoon with Danielle Smith and UCP endures".CBC News. RetrievedMay 28, 2025.
  7. ^"CBC Calgary Road Ahead Poll - Leader Impressions and Vote Intention -"(PDF).Janet Brown Opinion Research. RetrievedMay 29, 2025.
  8. ^"PUBLIC OPINION ON WORKERS AGENDA"(PDF).afl.org. April 17, 2025. RetrievedJune 1, 2025.
  9. ^"Mainstreet Research Survey - Alberta"(PDF).Mainstreet Research. March 24, 2025. RetrievedApril 12, 2025.
  10. ^"Government of Alberta Report Card January 2025"(PDF).Leger. February 5, 2025. RetrievedFebruary 6, 2025.
  11. ^"Alberta Provincial Polling September 17-28, 2024".Cardinal Research. October 3, 2024. RetrievedOctober 4, 2024.
  12. ^"Government of Alberta Report Card August 2024"(PDF).Leger. August 13, 2024. RetrievedAugust 16, 2024.
  13. ^"Alberta – Province Wide Survey of Decided Voters".Sovereign North Strategies. July 19, 2024. RetrievedJuly 23, 2024.
  14. ^Polczer, Shaun (July 18, 2024)."EXCLUSIVE: Poll says Nenshi would be premier if election held tomorrow".Western Standard. RetrievedJuly 23, 2024.
  15. ^Coletto, David; Sheppard, Eddie (July 4, 2024)."Alberta Politics: UCP ahead of NDP by 14-points post-Nenshi leadership victory".Abacus Data. RetrievedJuly 8, 2024.
  16. ^"Alberta May Polling"(PDF).Leger. May 31, 2024. RetrievedJune 4, 2024.
  17. ^"Government of Alberta Report Card: April 2024"(PDF).Leger Marketing. April 4, 2024. RetrievedApril 5, 2024.
  18. ^"Alberta Politics: UCP ahead of NDP by 15-points".Abacus Data. March 27, 2024. RetrievedMarch 27, 2024.
  19. ^"Pallas Alberta Poll: UCP 52, NDP 45".Pallas Data. March 18, 2024.Archived from the original on March 18, 2024. RetrievedMarch 18, 2024.
  20. ^Kaufmann, Bill (March 14, 2024)."Nenshi's leadership would boost voter support for Alberta NDP: poll".Calgary Herald.Postmedia Network.Archived from the original on March 14, 2024. RetrievedMarch 14, 2024.
  21. ^"Alberta Omni Report – March 2024"(PDF).Leger Marketing.Archived(PDF) from the original on March 15, 2024. RetrievedMarch 15, 2024.
  22. ^"Legislation on Gender Affirming Care for Children & Polling: Survey of Albertans"(PDF).Leger. February 15, 2024.Archived(PDF) from the original on February 17, 2024. RetrievedFebruary 17, 2024.
  23. ^"Changes to the NDP in Alberta: Alberta Omni Report"(PDF).Leger. January 26, 2024.Archived(PDF) from the original on January 27, 2024. RetrievedJanuary 26, 2024.
  24. ^"Alberta Vote Intentions: Alberta Omni Report"(PDF).Leger. January 19, 2024.Archived(PDF) from the original on January 20, 2024. RetrievedJanuary 20, 2024.
  25. ^"Alberta Spotlight: Split over health care restructuring, most blame lack of resources for current challenges".Angus Reid Institute. December 7, 2023.Archived from the original on December 16, 2023. RetrievedDecember 19, 2023.
  26. ^"2023.12.06_Alberta_Only.pdf"(PDF).Angus Reid Institute.Archived(PDF) from the original on December 12, 2023. RetrievedDecember 19, 2023.
  27. ^"Alberta Vote Intentions"(PDF).Leger.Archived(PDF) from the original on November 10, 2023. RetrievedOctober 10, 2023.
  28. ^"Government of Alberta Report Card"(PDF).Leger. October 5, 2023.Archived(PDF) from the original on December 20, 2023. RetrievedOctober 5, 2023.
  29. ^"Alberta Provincial Poll Sept 2025".Cardinal Research. September 24, 2025. RetrievedSeptember 24, 2025.

External links

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