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2028 Queensland state election

From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

For the local government elections scheduled to be held in March, see2028 Queensland local elections.

2028 Queensland state election

← 202428 October 20282032 →

All 93 seats in theLegislative Assembly
47 seats needed for a majority
Opinion polls
 
LeaderDavid CrisafulliSteven Miles
PartyLiberal NationalLabor
Leader since12 November 202015 December 2023
Leader's seatBroadwaterMurrumba
Last election52 seats, 41.52%36 seats, 32.56%
Current seats5235
Seats neededSteadyIncrease 12

 
LeaderRobbie KatterNo leader
PartyKatter's AustralianGreens
Leader since2 February 2015
Leader's seatTraeger
Last election3 seats, 2.44%1 seat, 9.89%
Current seats31
Seats neededIncrease 44Increase 46

IncumbentPremier

David Crisafulli
Liberal National



The2028 Queensland state election will be held on or before 28 October 2028[1] to elect the 59thParliament of Queensland and its 93 seats. TheElectoral Commission of Queensland (ECQ) will conduct the election.

The incumbent Liberal Nationalmajority government, led byPremierDavid Crisafulli, will seek a second four-year term in government. They will be challenged by theQueensland Labor Party, led byLeader of the Opposition and former PremierSteven Miles. It is expected that theQueensland Greens,Pauline Hanson's One Nation,Katter's Australian Party, and other minor parties and independents will contest the election.

Queensland has compulsory voting, with preferential instant runoff voting in single-member seats. However, PremierDavid Crisafulli has pledged to reinstateoptional preferential voting after Labor reinstated full compulsory preferential voting in 2016, returning the system to the recommendations from theFitzgerald Inquiry.[2]

Background

[edit]

At the 2024 Queensland state election, theLiberal National Party of Queensland (LNP), led byDavid Crisafulli, ended nine years inOpposition by securing a decisive victory. The LNP won 52 seats, compared to Labor's 36. TheGreens, who previously held two seats, lostSouth Brisbane but managed to retainMaiwar.Katter's Australian Party (KAP), led byRobbie Katter, held onto its three seats, whilePauline Hanson's One Nation lostMirani following the defection ofStephen Andrew to the KAP. Andrew, however, was defeated by the LNP in Mirani during the election.[3][4]

Date

[edit]

The parliament has fixed four-year terms with the election held on the fourth Saturday in October, though theGovernor may dissolve the house sooner on the advice of the Premier. Additionally, Section 19B, Paragraph 3 of the Constitution of Queensland 2001 states that “The Governor may at any time, by proclamation, order the polling day for an ordinary general election to be postponed to a Saturday not more than 35 days after the normal polling day (the postponed polling day)" if there are exceptional circumstances and if both the premier, and the Leader of the Opposition agrees to its postponement. Examples of exceptional circumstances listed in the constitution includes "An election for members of the House of Representatives or the Senate of the Commonwealth Parliament is to be held on the normal polling day or "A natural disaster has affected such a wide area of the State that the conduct of an election on the normal polling day would be impracticable.[1]

Opinion polling

[edit]

Voting intention

[edit]
DateFirmSample
size
Margin
of error
Primary voteTPP vote
LNPALPGRNONPKAPINDOTHLNPALP
13–20 Oct 2025DemosAU[5][6][7]1,006±3.6%37%29%12%14%8%54%46%
Sep–Oct 2025Resolve[8][9][a]868±3%33%32%10%9%1%7%7%49.3%50.7%
Jul–Aug 2025Resolve[10][11][a]869±3.2%34%32%10%8%1%8%6%49.5%50.5%
4–9 Jul 2025DemosAU[12][13]1,027±3.6%40%28%13%12%7%55%45%
17–25 Mar 2025RedBridge[14]1,50744%27%12%10%7%56.5%43.5%
Jan–Apr 2025Resolve[15]934±3.2%45%22%12%8%1%7%5%60%40%
10–14 Feb 2025DemosAU[16][17]1,004±4.2%40%30%12%10%8%56%44%
26 Oct 20242024 election41.5%32.6%9.9%8.0%2.4%1.7%3.9%53.8%46.2%

Leadership approval

[edit]

Preferred Premier

[edit]
DateFirmSamplePreferred Premier
CrisafulliMilesDon't know
13–20 Oct 2025DemosAU[5][6][7]1,00644%32%24%
Sep–Oct 2025Resolve[8]86839%22%39%
Jul–Aug 2025Resolve[10]86940%25%35%
Jan–Apr 2025Resolve[15]93444%22%34%

Satisfaction ratings

[edit]
DateFirmSampleCrisafulliMiles
SatisfiedDissatisfiedDon't KnowNetSatisfiedDissatisfiedDon't KnowNet
Sep–Oct 2025Resolve[8]868+17%–2%
Jul–Aug 2025Resolve[10]869+20%–1%
17–25 Mar 2025RedBridge[14]1,50746%17%37%+29%22%41%37%–19%

Sub-state polling

[edit]

Inner Brisbane

[edit]
DateFirmSample
size
Margin
of error
Primary voteTPP vote
LNPALPGRNONPKAPINDOTHLNPALP
Oct 2025RedBridge[18][19]1,01338%34%14%14%46%54%

South East Queensland

[edit]
DateFirmSample
size
Margin
of error
Primary voteTPP vote
LNPALPGRNONPKAPINDOTHLNPALP
13–20 Oct 2025DemosAU[5][6][7]1,006±3.6%39%29%11%13%8%55%45%
Oct 2025RedBridge[18][19]1,01336%35%13%11%5%48%52%
26 Oct 20242024 election40.4%35.9%12.1%6.1%5.5%50.3%49.7%

Regional Queensland

[edit]
DateFirmSample
size
Margin
of error
Primary voteTPP vote
LNPALPGRNONPKAPINDOTHLNPALP
13–20 Oct 2025DemosAU[5][6][7]1,006±3.6%38%25%7%21%9%60%40%

See also

[edit]

Notes

[edit]
  1. ^abTwo-party preferred result estimated by Kevin Bonham.

References

[edit]
  1. ^ab"Constitution of Queensland 2001".www.legislation.qld.gov.au. Retrieved9 January 2025.
  2. ^Atfield, Cameron (24 August 2024)."Compulsory preferential voting to be scrapped if LNP takes power".Brisbane Times. Retrieved15 September 2025.
  3. ^Smee, Ben (26 October 2024)."David Crisafulli has narrowly won the Queensland election but the real fight has only just begun".The Guardian.ISSN 0261-3077. Retrieved9 January 2025.
  4. ^"David Crisafulli sworn in as Queensland premier — as it happened".ABC News. 27 October 2024. Retrieved9 January 2025.
  5. ^abcd"Queensland Poll"(PDF). DemosAU. 27 October 2025. Archived fromthe original(PDF) on 6 November 2025. Retrieved6 November 2025.
  6. ^abcd"LNP maintains clear lead over Labor in Queensland – new poll". DemosAU. 27 October 2025. Archived fromthe original on 29 October 2025. Retrieved29 October 2025.
  7. ^abcdJohnson, Hayden (27 October 2025)."Qld voters deliver verdict on Crisafulli government". The Courier Mail. Archived fromthe original on 27 October 2025. Retrieved27 October 2025.
  8. ^abcDennien, Matt (15 October 2025)."Miles sheds support but major parties neck and neck". Brisbane Times. Archived fromthe original on 15 October 2025. Retrieved15 October 2025.
  9. ^Bonham, Kevin [@kevinbonham] (16 October 2025)."ResolvePM Qld (state) LNP 33 ALP 32 Grn 10 ON 9 IND 7* KAP 1 other 7 (*likely overstated)" (Tweet). Archived fromthe original on 27 October 2025. Retrieved27 October 2025 – viaTwitter.
  10. ^abcDennien, Matt (21 August 2025)."'Serious hit': LNP support falls from post-election high". Brisbane Times. Archived fromthe original on 21 August 2025. Retrieved21 August 2025.
  11. ^Bonham, Kevin [@kevinbonham] (21 August 2025)."ResolvePM Qld (state) LNP 34 (-11) ALP 32 (+10) Grn 10 (-2) ON 8 (-) IND 8* (+1) KAP 1 (-) other 6 (+1) (*likely overstated)" (Tweet). Archived fromthe original on 27 October 2025. Retrieved27 October 2025 – viaTwitter.
  12. ^"Queensland State and Federal Voting Intention July 04-09 2025". DemosAU. 10 July 2025. Archived fromthe original(PDF) on 14 July 2025. Retrieved14 July 2025.
  13. ^"Crisafulli and Albanese enjoy honeymoon periods". DemosAU. 14 July 2025. Archived fromthe original on 14 July 2025. Retrieved14 July 2025.
  14. ^abJohnson, Hayden (31 March 2025)."King David: Premier Crisafulli now the most popular leader in Australia". The Courier Mail. Archived fromthe original on 19 October 2025. Retrieved19 October 2025.
  15. ^abAtfield, Cameron (21 April 2025)."Crisafulli flies high, while Miles – and Dutton – lag". Brisbane Times. Archived fromthe original on 23 July 2025. Retrieved21 August 2025.
  16. ^"Queensland State Voting Intention Poll". DemosAU. 19 February 2025. Archived fromthe original(PDF) on 14 July 2025. Retrieved14 July 2025.
  17. ^"New Queensland poll shows modest improvement for Federal Labor". DemosAU. 19 February 2025. Archived fromthe original on 14 July 2025. Retrieved14 July 2025.
  18. ^abJohnson, Hayden; O'Malley, Brendan (19 October 2025)."Exclusive Redbridge-Accent polling reveals Premier David Crisafulli's fail to win over SEQ voters". The Courier Mail. Archived fromthe original on 19 October 2025. Retrieved19 October 2025.
  19. ^abBowe, William (20 October 2025)."Queensland: polls, Hinchinbrook by-election and redistribution latest". The Poll Bludger. Archived fromthe original on 20 October 2025. Retrieved20 October 2025.
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