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2026 United States Senate election in Louisiana

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For related races, see2026 United States Senate elections.

2026 United States Senate election in Louisiana

← 2020November 3, 20262032 →
 
PartyRepublicanDemocratic

IncumbentU.S. senator

Bill Cassidy
Republican



Elections in Louisiana
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The2026 United States Senate election in Louisiana will be held on November 3, 2026, to elect a member of theUnited States Senate to represent the state ofLouisiana. Arunoff election will be held on December 12, 2026 if no candidate wins a majority. Partyprimary elections will be held on April 18, 2026, with a runoff on May 30 if no candidate wins a majority in the primary. IncumbentRepublican senatorBill Cassidy, who was re-elected in2020, is running for re-election to a third term. Cassidy's vote to convictDonald Trump inhis second impeachment trial has led toprimary challenges against him.[1]

Following the enactment of House Bill 17 in 2024, this will be the first U.S. Senate election in Louisiana to utilize party primaries instead of a singleblanket primary since2010.[2][3] Louisiana has been represented in the U.S. Senate exclusively by Republicans since 2015.

Background

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Change of electoral system

[edit]

In January 2024, governorJeff Landry signed House Bill 17, sponsored by representativeJulie Emerson, which eliminated the top-twoLouisiana primary system in favor of partisan primaries in elections forCongress, theBoard of Elementary and Secondary Education, thePublic Service Commission, and theSupreme Court. Unaffiliated voters may vote in the primaries, but not members of other parties, including theIndependent Party of Louisiana. The bill also indicated the use ofrunoff elections if no candidate receives a majority in their respective primary. The law is to take effect beginning with the 2026 elections, making this election the first in which Louisiana will elect a U.S. senator using this system since2010; the top-two primary was first implemented in congressional elections in1978.[2]

Primary challenge to Cassidy

[edit]

SenatorBill Cassidy, who has held this seat since 2015, has gained significant notoriety within the Republican Party for being a vocal critic ofpresidentDonald Trump. He denounced thestorming of the U.S. Capitol and accused the participants ofsedition, whilevoting to certify the results of the2020 presidential election, which Trump and his supporters haveattempted to overturn.[4] Cassidy was one of seven Senate Republicans to later vote to convict Trump of incitement ofinsurrection during hissecond impeachment trial, for which theRepublican Party of Louisiana publicly censured him.[5] Additionally, during Trump's2024 presidential campaign, Cassidy made numerous public statements denouncing his candidacy and calling for his withdrawal, particularly in reference to Trump'sfour criminal indictments.[6][7]

Cassidy's outspoken opposition to President Trump and his policies has led political analysts to believe him vulnerable to aprimary challenge from the right wing of the party. Early speculation of potential candidates includedClay Higgins, a Congressman and law enforcement officer who has gained popularity among Republicans for his support of Trump.[3] However, Higgins ultimately chose not to run.[8]

Republican primary

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Candidates

[edit]

Declared

[edit]

Filed paperwork

[edit]

Publicly expressed interest

[edit]

Declined

[edit]

Endorsements

[edit]
Bill Cassidy
U.S. senators

State legislators

Local officials

Individuals

Organizations
John Fleming

U.S. representatives

State legislators

Blake Miguez

State legislators

Fundraising

[edit]
Campaign finance reports as of June 30, 2025
CandidateRaisedSpentCash on hand
Bill Cassidy (R)$9,287,220$2,185,574$8,739,323
John Fleming (R)$4,416,119$2,273,540$2,142,652
Chris Holder (R)$7,600$3,500$4,100
Blake Miguez (R)$1,821,573$78,986$1,742,587
Sammy Wyatt (R)$132,956$110,739$22,217
Source:Federal Election Commission[29]

Polling

[edit]
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size[a]
Margin
of error
Bill
Cassidy
John
Fleming
Blake
Miguez
Eric
Skrmetta
OtherUndecided
JMC Analytics & Polling[30][A]October 15–17, 2025610 (LV)± 4.0%23%25%17%[b]35%
29%40%31%
Ragnar Research Partners (R)[31][B]April 14–16, 2025600 (LV)± 4.0%45%28%3%[c]34%
JMC Analytics & Polling[32][A]February 24–26, 2025600 (LV)± 4.0%27%40%33%
27%29%6%2%36%
Hypothetical polling
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size[a]
Margin
of error
Bill
Cassidy
Clay
Higgins
John
Fleming
Julia
Letlow
Blake
Miguez
Undecided
Trafalgar Group (R)[33][C]March 6–10, 20251,068 (LV)± 2.9%24%31%17%20%4%4%
33%55%12%
28%39%25%3%5%
28%42%25%5%
32%61%7%
34%51%15%
37%42%21%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size[a]
Margin
of error
Bill
Cassidy
Clay
Higgins
John
Fleming
Garret
Graves
Eric
Skrmetta
Undecided
Trafalgar Group (R)[33][C]August 12–14, 20241,062 (LV)± 2.9%27%36%12%23%2%
36%44%16%4%
45%22%29%4%
41%59%
43%57%
56%44%
48%52%

Democratic primary

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Candidates

[edit]

Publicly expressed interest

[edit]

Declined

[edit]

Third-party candidates

[edit]

America Party

[edit]

Filed paperwork

[edit]
  • Jamie "Kim" LaBranche, write-in candidate[36]

General election

[edit]

Predictions

[edit]
SourceRankingAs of
Inside Elections[37]Solid RAugust 12, 2025
The Cook Political Report[38]Solid ROctober 14, 2025
Sabato's Crystal Ball[39]Safe RAugust 12, 2025
Race To The WH[40]Safe RSeptember 4, 2025

Notes

[edit]
  1. ^abcKey:
    A – all adults
    RV – registered voters
    LV – likely voters
    V – unclear
  2. ^"Includes five candidates, either announced or anticipated"
  3. ^Randall Arrington with 3%
Partisan clients
  1. ^abPoll sponsored by Fleming's campaign
  2. ^Poll sponsored by Cassidy's campaign
  3. ^abPoll conducted on behalf of Clay Higgins

References

[edit]
  1. ^abHilburn, Greg (January 30, 2024)."Bill Cassidy discusses reelection plans while blistering Louisiana closed party primary law".The Times.Shreveport. RetrievedMarch 31, 2024.
  2. ^abMuller, Wesley (January 19, 2024)."Gov. Landry, lawmakers disrupt how Louisiana has voted for nearly 50 years".Louisiana Illuminator. RetrievedMarch 31, 2024.
  3. ^abBridges, Tyler (January 28, 2024)."Bill Cassidy faces uphill battle to win reelection but independents can still vote for him".The Times-Picayune/The New Orleans Advocate. RetrievedMarch 31, 2024.
  4. ^Atoms, Greg (January 8, 2021)."Senator Bill Cassidy Says Pro-Trump Rioters Committed Sedition".KEEL. RetrievedJanuary 10, 2021.
  5. ^Mena, Kelly; Merica, Dan (February 13, 2021)."Louisiana Republican Party censures Cassidy following vote to convict Trump".CNN. RetrievedFebruary 14, 2021.
  6. ^Concepcion, Summer (August 20, 2023)."GOP Sen. Bill Cassidy says Trump should drop out of the 2024 presidential race".NBC News. RetrievedAugust 20, 2023.
  7. ^Yang, Maya (March 17, 2024)."Republican Bill Cassidy derides Trump and calls 2024 race 'sorry state of affairs'".The Guardian. RetrievedMarch 31, 2024.
  8. ^abVakil, Caroline (March 20, 2025)."Higgins turns down run for Cassidy's Louisiana Senate seat".The Hill. RetrievedMarch 20, 2025.
  9. ^Purdy, Domenic (December 4, 2024)."Treasurer John Fleming announces bid for Bill Cassidy's Senate seat in 2026".WBRZ-TV. RetrievedDecember 4, 2024.
  10. ^Vedros, Colin (June 17, 2025)."Louisiana lawmaker announces run for U.S. Senate against Sen. Bill Cassidy".WVUE-DT. RetrievedJune 17, 2025.
  11. ^Hilburn, Greg (October 8, 2025)."First woman launches Louisiana Senate campaign challenging incumbent Republican Bill Cassidy".Shreveport Times. RetrievedOctober 8, 2025.
  12. ^Purdy, Domenic (July 25, 2025)."Public Service Commissioner Eric Skrmetta says he is running for Senate against incumbent Bill Cassidy".WBRZ-TV. RetrievedJuly 27, 2025.
  13. ^"Sammy Wyatt launches race to unseat Cassidy".KTBS. March 14, 2025. RetrievedMay 18, 2025.
  14. ^"ARRINGTON, RANDALL STEVEN PHD - Candidate overview".FEC.gov. January 1, 2019. RetrievedMay 18, 2025.
  15. ^Hilburn, Greg (August 27, 2025)."Will Louisiana Congresswoman Julia Letlow enter the 2026 U.S. Senate race with Bill Cassidy?".The Times. RetrievedAugust 28, 2025.
  16. ^"HOLDER, CHRISTOPHER LEE MR. - Candidate overview".FEC.gov. January 1, 2019. RetrievedMay 18, 2025.
  17. ^"MOROTT, JOSHUA FEC FORM 2 STATEMENT OF CANDIDACY FILING FEC-1904325".
  18. ^"JOHN, XAN MR. - Candidate overview".FEC.gov. January 1, 2019. RetrievedMay 18, 2025.
  19. ^Bridges, Tyler (April 21, 2025)."Will Julia Letlow challenge Bill Cassidy in Louisiana? Political heavyweights are asking".The Times-Picayune/The New Orleans Advocate. RetrievedApril 22, 2025.
  20. ^Beaumont, Thomas (May 10, 2025)."Louisiana governor pushes Trump to weigh primary challenger to GOP Sen. Bill Cassidy, AP sources say".Associated Press. RetrievedMay 10, 2025.
  21. ^abMckendry, Nolan (September 2, 2025)."Cassidy touts endorsements, campaign momentum".The Center Square. RetrievedSeptember 8, 2025.Senate Majority Leader John Thune, R-S.D., and National Republican Senatorial Committee Chairman Tim Scott, R-S.C., have since thrown their support behind him...
  22. ^"Senator Cassidy earns key conservative endorsement from State Senate Committee Chair Beth Mizell".Livingston Parish News. August 14, 2025. RetrievedSeptember 8, 2025.
  23. ^https://www.cenlanow.com/news/state-news/ruston-mayor-endorses-cassidy-for-the-2026-senate-election/
  24. ^abHilburn, Greg (November 21, 2024)."Senator Bill Cassidy flexes 2026 election muscles ahead of potential MAGA challengers".The Times. RetrievedNovember 21, 2024.
  25. ^"- AIPAC Political Portal".candidates.aipacpac.org. RetrievedApril 28, 2025.
  26. ^abcSoellner, Mica; Cohen, Max."Fleming makes his pro-Trump case against Cassidy".Punchbowl News. RetrievedMarch 7, 2025.
  27. ^Vedros, Colin (August 28, 2025)."Elbert Guillory joins John Fleming's Senate run as campaign director".KALB-TV. RetrievedSeptember 4, 2025.
  28. ^Hutchinson, Piper (January 25, 2025)."State lawmaker claims Bill Cassidy revoked his Washington Mardi Gras ball tickets over politics".Louisiana Illuminator. RetrievedJanuary 25, 2025.
  29. ^"2026 Election United States Senate - Louisiana".fec.gov.Federal Election Commission. RetrievedApril 23, 2025.
  30. ^Collins, Noah (October 20, 2025)."Fleming Leads the Pack in Louisiana Senate Race — Powered by Grassroots, Not Special Interests". John Fleming for U.S. Senate. RetrievedOctober 23, 2025.
  31. ^Lacen, Marlo (May 2, 2025)."Bill Cassidy leads Louisiana's U.S. Senate race, new poll shows".KTAL-TV. RetrievedMay 2, 2025.
  32. ^"Fleming To Cassidy: Hey, Cool Poll. I've Got One, Too!".The Hayride. March 5, 2025.Archived from the original on March 5, 2025. RetrievedMarch 6, 2025.
  33. ^ab"LA US Senate Republican Primary Poll, Aug '24 and Mar '25".The Trafalgar Group. March 25, 2025. RetrievedMarch 28, 2025.
  34. ^Bridges, Tyler (August 11, 2025)."As Louisiana Democrats try to rebuild, is fighting or working with Republicans the answer?".The Times-Picayune/The New Orleans Advocate. RetrievedSeptember 22, 2025.
  35. ^Bridges, Tyler (October 10, 2025)."John Bel Edwards won't run for U.S. Senate, dashing Louisiana Democrats' hopes".NOLA. RetrievedOctober 10, 2025.
  36. ^"LaBranche, Jamie FEC FORM 2 STATEMENT OF CANDIDACY FILING FEC-1904219".
  37. ^"Senate Ratings".Inside Elections. RetrievedJanuary 14, 2025.
  38. ^"2026 CPR Senate Race Ratings".Cook Political Report. RetrievedFebruary 11, 2025.
  39. ^"2026 Senate ratings".Sabato's Crystal Ball. RetrievedFebruary 13, 2025.
  40. ^"2026 Senate Forecast".Race to the WH. RetrievedMarch 19, 2025.

External links

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