2026 United States Senate election in Louisiana
The2026 United States Senate election in Louisiana will be held on November 3, 2026, to elect a member of theUnited States Senate to represent the state ofLouisiana . Arunoff election will be held on December 12, 2026 if no candidate wins a majority. Partyprimary elections will be held on May 16, 2026 with a runoff on June 27 if no candidate wins a majority in the primary. IncumbentRepublican senatorBill Cassidy , who was re-elected in2020 , is running for re-election to a third term. Cassidy's vote to convictDonald Trump inhis second impeachment trial has led toprimary challenges against him.[ 1]
Following the enactment of House Bill 17 in 2024, this will be the first U.S. Senate election in Louisiana to utilize party primaries instead of a singleblanket primary since2010 .[ 2] [ 3]
Change of electoral system [ edit ] In January 2024, governorJeff Landry signed House Bill 17, sponsored by representativeJulie Emerson , which eliminated the top-twoLouisiana primary system in favor of partisan primaries in elections forCongress , theBoard of Elementary and Secondary Education , thePublic Service Commission , and theSupreme Court . Unaffiliated voters may vote in the primaries, but not members of other parties, including theIndependent Party of Louisiana . The bill also indicated the use ofrunoff elections if no candidate receives a majority in their respective primary. The law is to take effect beginning with the 2026 elections, making this election the first in which Louisiana will elect a U.S. senator using this system since2010 ; the top-two primary was first implemented in congressional elections in1978 .[ 2]
Primary challenge to Cassidy [ edit ] SenatorBill Cassidy , who has held this seat since 2015, has gained significant notoriety within the Republican Party for being a vocal critic ofpresident Donald Trump . He denounced thestorming of the U.S. Capitol and accused the participants ofsedition , whilevoting to certify the results of the2020 presidential election , which Trump and his supporters haveattempted to overturn .[ 4] insurrection during hissecond impeachment trial , for which theRepublican Party of Louisiana publicly censured him.[ 5] 2024 presidential campaign , Cassidy made numerous public statements denouncing his candidacy and calling for his withdrawal, particularly in reference to Trump'sfour criminal indictments .[ 6] [ 7]
Cassidy's outspoken opposition to President Trump and his policies has led political analysts to believe him vulnerable to aprimary challenge from the right wing of the party. Early speculation of potential candidates includedClay Higgins , a Congressman and law enforcement officer who has gained popularity among Republicans for his support of Trump.[ 3] [ 8] Julia Letlow as a potential candidate.[ 9] [ 10]
Bill Cassidy
U.S. senators State legislators Individuals Organizations John Fleming
U.S. representatives State legislators Julia Letlow
Executive branch officials Statewide officials Local officials Italics indicated a withdrew or declined candidate.
Campaign finance reports as of September 30, 2025 Candidate Raised Spent Cash on hand Bill Cassidy (R) $11,729,417 $3,262,575 $10,104,519 John Fleming (R) $8,718,121 $6,602,209 $2,115,984 Julia Letlow (R) $2,004,227 $905,934 $2,445,060 Source:Federal Election Commission [ 33]
Aggregate polls
Source of poll Dates Dates Randall Bill John Julia Blake Eric Other/[ a] Margin Race to the WH [ 34] through February 4, 2026 February 4, 2026 3.0% 24.7% 16.3% 24.1% 6.9% 1.0% 24.0% Cassidy +0.6%
Poll source Date(s) Sample[ b] Margin Bill John Julia Blake Eric Other Undecided February 3, 2026 Miguez withdraws, runs for Letlow's House seat BDPC[ 35] [ A] January 20–22, 2026 600 (LV) – 21% 14% 27% 5% – 6%[ c] 27% 28% 45% – – – – 23% Public Opinion Strategies (R)[ 36] [ 35] [ B] January 20–22, 2026 600 (LV) – 32% 16% 21% 9% 1% 0%[ d] 19% 40% – 46% – – – 14% January 20, 2026 Letlow enters the race JMC Analytics & Polling[ 37] [ C] January 12–14, 2026 650 (LV) ± 3.8% 22% 23% – – – 16%[ e] 39% 26% 44% – – – – 30% JMC Analytics & Polling[ 38] [ C] October 15–17, 2025 610 (LV) ± 4.0% 23% 25% – – – 17%[ f] 35% 29% 40% – – – – 31% Ragnar Research Partners (R)[ 39] [ B] April 14–16, 2025 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 45% 28% – – – 3%[ g] 34% JMC Analytics & Polling[ 40] [ C] February 24–26, 2025 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 27% 40% – – – – 33% 27% 29% – 6% 2% – 36%
Hypothetical polling
Poll source Date(s) Sample[ b] Margin Bill Clay John Julia Blake Undecided Trafalgar Group (R)[ 41] [ D] March 6–10, 2025 1,068 (LV) ± 2.9% 24% 31% 17% 20% 4% 4% 33% – – 55% – 12% 28% 39% 25% – 3% 5% 28% 42% 25% – – 5% 32% 61% – – – 7% 34% – 51% – – 15% 37% – – – 42% 21%
Poll source Date(s) Sample[ b] Margin Bill Clay John Garret Eric Undecided Trafalgar Group (R)[ 41] [ D] August 12–14, 2024 1,062 (LV) ± 2.9% 27% 36% 12% 23% 2% – 36% 44% 16% – 4% – – 45% 22% 29% 4% – 41% – – 59% – – 43% 57% – – – – – 56% – 44% – – 48% – 52% – – –
Italics indicated a withdrew or declined candidate.
Third-party candidates [ edit ] Jamie "Kim" LaBranche, write-in candidate[ 47] ^ Calculated by taking the difference of 100% and all other candidates combined. ^a b c Key: ^ "Other candidates" with 6% ^ Kathy Seiden with 0% ^ "The remaining ballot tested candidates are getting a combined vote of 16%" ^ "Includes five candidates, either announced or anticipated" ^ Randall Arrington with 3% Partisan clients ^ Poll conducted for Advanced Strategies Inc., which supports Letlow ^a b Poll sponsored by Cassidy's campaign ^a b c Poll sponsored by Fleming's campaign ^a b Poll conducted on behalf of Clay Higgins ^a b Hilburn, Greg (January 30, 2024)."Bill Cassidy discusses reelection plans while blistering Louisiana closed party primary law" .The Times Shreveport . RetrievedMarch 31, 2024 . ^a b Muller, Wesley (January 19, 2024)."Gov. Landry, lawmakers disrupt how Louisiana has voted for nearly 50 years" .Louisiana Illuminator . RetrievedMarch 31, 2024 . ^a b Bridges, Tyler (January 28, 2024)."Bill Cassidy faces uphill battle to win reelection but independents can still vote for him" .The Times-Picayune/The New Orleans Advocate . RetrievedMarch 31, 2024 . ^ Atoms, Greg (January 8, 2021)."Senator Bill Cassidy Says Pro-Trump Rioters Committed Sedition" .KEEL . RetrievedJanuary 10, 2021 . ^ Mena, Kelly; Merica, Dan (February 13, 2021)."Louisiana Republican Party censures Cassidy following vote to convict Trump" .CNN . RetrievedFebruary 14, 2021 . ^ Concepcion, Summer (August 20, 2023)."GOP Sen. Bill Cassidy says Trump should drop out of the 2024 presidential race" .NBC News . RetrievedAugust 20, 2023 . ^ Yang, Maya (March 17, 2024)."Republican Bill Cassidy derides Trump and calls 2024 race 'sorry state of affairs' .The Guardian . RetrievedMarch 31, 2024 . ^a b Vakil, Caroline (March 20, 2025)."Higgins turns down run for Cassidy's Louisiana Senate seat" .The Hill . RetrievedMarch 20, 2025 . ^ Hill, Meredith Lee; Carney, Jordain."Louisiana's Letlow prepares Senate bid after Trump endorsement" . Politico. RetrievedJanuary 19, 2026 . ^ Beaumont, Thomas; Barrow, Bill."Rep. Julia Letlow launches primary against Sen. Bill Cassidy in Louisiana" .ABC News . Associated Press. RetrievedJanuary 21, 2026 . ^ Purdy, Domenic (December 4, 2024)."Treasurer John Fleming announces bid for Bill Cassidy's Senate seat in 2026" .WBRZ-TV . RetrievedDecember 4, 2024 . ^ Howard, Andrew; Doherty, Erin; Lee Hill, Meredith (January 20, 2026)."Letlow launches Trump-backed Senate bid against Cassidy" .Politico . RetrievedJanuary 20, 2026 . ^ "ARRINGTON, RANDALL STEVEN PHD - Candidate overview" .FEC.gov . January 1, 2019. RetrievedMay 18, 2025 .^ "FEC Form 2 for Report FEC-1924341" .docquery.fec.gov . RetrievedNovember 7, 2025 .^ "HOLDER, CHRISTOPHER LEE MR. - Candidate overview" .FEC.gov . January 1, 2019. RetrievedMay 18, 2025 .^ "MOROTT, JOSHUA FEC FORM 2 STATEMENT OF CANDIDACY FILING FEC-1904325" .^ "JOHN, XAN MR. - Candidate overview" .FEC.gov . January 1, 2019. RetrievedMay 18, 2025 .^ Vakil, Caroline (January 22, 2026)."Louisiana Republican drops bid for Cassidy seat after Trump-backed candidate enters race" .The Hill . RetrievedJanuary 22, 2026 . ^ Dick, Cooper (February 3, 2026)."State Senator ends Senate campaign to run for Congress" .Reveille . RetrievedFebruary 3, 2026 . ^a b "Kathy Seiden, St. Tammany Council member, exits U.S. Senate race, endorses Julia Letlow" .The Advocate . February 3, 2026. RetrievedFebruary 3, 2026 .^a b Bruhl, Allison (February 13, 2026)."Louisiana Public Service Commissioner Eric Skrmetta drops US Senate bid, backs Julia Letlow" .WGNO . RetrievedFebruary 14, 2026 . ^ "Another Republican says he is entering the race to succeed Julia Letlow as District 5 Congressperson" .WBRZ-TV . RetrievedJanuary 22, 2026 .^a b Mckendry, Nolan (September 2, 2025)."Cassidy touts endorsements, campaign momentum" .The Center Square . RetrievedSeptember 8, 2025 .Senate Majority Leader John Thune, R-S.D., and National Republican Senatorial Committee Chairman Tim Scott, R-S.C., have since thrown their support behind him... ^ "Senator Cassidy earns key conservative endorsement from State Senate Committee Chair Beth Mizell" .Livingston Parish News . RetrievedSeptember 8, 2025 .^a b Hilburn, Greg (November 21, 2024)."Senator Bill Cassidy flexes 2026 election muscles ahead of potential MAGA challengers" .The Times . RetrievedNovember 21, 2024 . ^ "- AIPAC Political Portal" .candidates.aipacpac.org . RetrievedApril 28, 2025 .^ "Leading Nat'l Pro-Life Group Endorses Senator Bill Cassidy for Re-Election" .sbaprolife.org . January 7, 2026. RetrievedJanuary 7, 2026 .^a b c Soellner, Mica; Cohen, Max."Fleming makes his pro-Trump case against Cassidy" .Punchbowl News . RetrievedMarch 7, 2025 . ^ Vedros, Colin (August 28, 2025)."Elbert Guillory joins John Fleming's Senate run as campaign director" .KALB-TV . RetrievedSeptember 4, 2025 . ^ Burruss, Adam (January 17, 2025)."President Trump endorses Rep. Julia Letlow for potential Senate candidacy" .WBRZ ^ Hilburn, Greg."Trump, Landry loom large as Cassidy, Letlow clash in Louisiana Senate primary" .The Shreveport Times . RetrievedFebruary 14, 2026 . ^ Hutchinson, Piper (January 25, 2025)."State lawmaker claims Bill Cassidy revoked his Washington Mardi Gras ball tickets over politics" .Louisiana Illuminator . RetrievedJanuary 25, 2025 . ^a b "2026 Election United States Senate - Louisiana" .fec.gov .Federal Election Commission . RetrievedApril 23, 2025 .^ "2026 Senate Polling Average" .Race to the WH . RetrievedFebruary 5, 2026 .^a b Bridges, Tyler (February 2, 2026)."As Bill Cassidy allies attack Julia Letlow in U.S. Senate race, see what polls are showing" .The Times-Picayune . RetrievedFebruary 3, 2026 . ^ Larkin, Katie (January 27, 2026)."State of the Race: Cassidy First on Air, Massive Resource Advantage" .Bill Cassidy for U.S. Senate . RetrievedJanuary 28, 2026 . ^ Collins, Noah (January 19, 2026)."NEW POLL: Bill Cassidy Falling Further Behind in Head-To-Head Matchup Against John Fleming" . John Fleming for U.S. Senate. RetrievedJanuary 27, 2026 . ^ Collins, Noah (October 20, 2025)."Fleming Leads the Pack in Louisiana Senate Race — Powered by Grassroots, Not Special Interests" . John Fleming for U.S. Senate. RetrievedOctober 23, 2025 . ^ Lacen, Marlo (May 2, 2025)."Bill Cassidy leads Louisiana's U.S. Senate race, new poll shows" .KTAL-TV . RetrievedMay 2, 2025 . ^ "Fleming To Cassidy: Hey, Cool Poll. I've Got One, Too!" .The Hayride . March 5, 2025.Archived from the original on March 5, 2025. RetrievedMarch 6, 2025 .^a b "LA US Senate Republican Primary Poll, Aug '24 and Mar '25" .The Trafalgar Group . March 25, 2025. RetrievedMarch 28, 2025 .^ "Two Democrats say they intend to run against Bill Cassidy in 2026 senatorial election" .WBRZ . RetrievedDecember 12, 2025 .^ Grant, Jalon (December 12, 2025)."Concordia Parish native announces U.S. Senate bid in Louisiana" .WNTZ-TV . RetrievedDecember 12, 2025 . ^ Alford, Jeremy; Jacobs, David (December 30, 2025)." .Baton Rouge Business Report . RetrievedJanuary 1, 2026 . ^ Bridges, Tyler (October 10, 2025)."John Bel Edwards won't run for U.S. Senate, dashing Louisiana Democrats' hopes" .NOLA . RetrievedOctober 10, 2025 . ^ Bridges, Tyler (October 23, 2025)."Louisiana Sen. Jay Luneau won't run for U.S. Senate. Democrats are still seeking a candidate" .The Times-Picayune/The New Orleans Advocate . RetrievedOctober 28, 2025 . ^ "LaBranche, Jamie FEC FORM 2 STATEMENT OF CANDIDACY FILING FEC-1904219" .^ "Senate Ratings" .Inside Elections . RetrievedJanuary 14, 2025 .^ "2026 CPR Senate Race Ratings" .Cook Political Report . RetrievedFebruary 11, 2025 .^ "2026 Senate ratings" .Sabato's Crystal Ball . RetrievedFebruary 13, 2025 .^ "2026 Senate Forecast" .Race to the WH . RetrievedMarch 19, 2025 .Official campaign websites
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