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The2026 Tennessee gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place on November 3, 2026, to elect the nextGovernor of Tennessee, alongside otherstate and local elections. The primary elections will take place on August 6, 2026.[1] IncumbentRepublican GovernorBill Lee is prohibited by theConstitution of Tennessee from seeking a third consecutive term. His second term expires on January 16, 2027.
Democrats have not won a statewide election in Tennessee sincePhil Bredesen was re-elected governor in2006.
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size[a] | Margin of error | Marsha Blackburn | John Rose | Monty Fritts | Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Targoz Market Research[21][A] | January 11–18, 2026 | 559 (LV) | – | 56% | 9% | 7% | 1%[b] | 27% |
| Targoz Market Research[22][A] | October 26–29, 2025 | 545 (RV) | – | 58% | 9% | 5% | – | 29% |
| Quantus Insights (R)[23] | August 5–7, 2025 | – | – | 35% | 6% | – | 22%[c] | 37% |
| Targoz Market Research[24][A] | July 27 – August 1, 2025 | 623 (RV) | ± 2.8% | 66% | 14% | – | – | 19% |
| Fabrizio Lee & Associates (R)[25][26][B] | January 13–16, 2025 | 800 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 71% | 13% | – | – | 16% |
| Source | Ranking | As of |
|---|---|---|
| The Cook Political Report[33] | Solid R | September 11, 2025 |
| Inside Elections[34] | Solid R | August 28, 2025 |
| Sabato's Crystal Ball[35] | Safe R | September 4, 2025 |
| Race to the WH[36] | Safe R | September 16, 2025 |
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size[a] | Margin of error | Marsha Blackburn (R) | Jerri Green (D) | Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Quantus Insights (R)[23] | August 5–7, 2025 | 600 (RV) | ± 3.5% | 49% | 28% | 7%[d] | 17% |
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size[a] | Margin of error | John Rose (R) | Jerri Green (D) | Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Quantus Insights (R)[23] | August 5–7, 2025 | 600 (RV) | ± 3.5% | 43% | 27% | 8%[e] | 23% |
Rep. Mark Green (R-Tenn.) will not run for governor in 2026, according to a source familiar with his thinking.
Jacobs spent months laying the groundwork for a run for governor in 2026, but endorsed Blackburn the night of Jan. 14
There are also four democrats running for this position: Jerri Green, Carnita Atwater, Adam Kurtz, and Tim Cyr...
