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2026 Florida gubernatorial election

From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

For related races, see2026 United States gubernatorial elections.

2026 Florida gubernatorial election

← 2022November 3, 20262030 →
 
PartyRepublicanDemocratic

IncumbentGovernor

Ron DeSantis
Republican



Elections in Florida
Presidential elections
Presidential primaries
Democratic
2000
2004
2008
2012
2016
2020
2024
Republican
2008
2012
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2020
2024
U.S. Senate elections
U.S. House of Representatives elections
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General elections
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Chief Financial Officer elections
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Ballot measures
Government

The2026 Florida gubernatorial election will take place on November 3, 2026, to elect the nextgovernor of Florida, alongside other state and local elections. IncumbentRepublican GovernorRon DeSantis is term-limited and cannot seek re-election to a third consecutive term.

Background

[edit]

A heavily populatedSouth Atlantic state with a large and increasingly conservativeLatino American population and the northern parts lying in theBible Belt, Florida is considered to be a moderately to stronglyred state, having not elected a Democratic governor since 1994 nor a Democrat for president since2012 and having moved significantly rightward in the last decade. In2022, incumbent GovernorRon DeSantis was re-elected by a 19.4% margin, a considerable improvement from his 0.4-point victory four years earlier in thegubernatorial election during the2018 blue wave. This was followed two years later by RepublicanDonald Trump winning his adoptive home state by a 13% margin as he won a second non-consecutive presidential term, improving his 3.4% margin of victory in2020 and seemingly diminishing Florida's longtimeswing-statestatus.[citation needed] Republicans also control all statewide offices, a large majority of the state's U.S. House delegation, both U.S. Senate seats, and supermajorities in both houses of theFlorida Legislature.

Eligibility and requirements

[edit]

Article IV, Section 5(b) of theFlorida Constitution states that, for a person to serve as governor, they must:[1]

  • Be at least thirty years old;
  • Be a permanent resident of Florida for at least seven years;
  • Not have served as governor for six years or more of the two prior terms.

Republican primary

[edit]

Candidates

[edit]

Declared

[edit]

Publicly expressed interest

[edit]

Potential

[edit]

Withdrawn

[edit]

Declined

[edit]

Endorsements

[edit]
Byron Donalds

U.S. Presidents

Executive branch officials

U.S. senators

U.S. representatives

State executive officials

  • Carlos Beruff, former chair of the Florida Constitution Revision Commission (2017–2018)[12]

State Senators

State Representatives

Party officials

local officials

Sheriffs

Individuals

Organizations
Ashley Moody (declined)
Individuals

Polling

[edit]
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size[a]
Margin
of error
Byron
Donalds
Paul
Renner
Undecided
Targoz Market Research[36][A]September 16–18, 2025506 (RV)29%9%62%
Hypothetical polling

Jay Collins vs. Byron Donalds vs. Paul Renner

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size[a]
Margin
of error
Jay
Collins
Byron
Donalds
Paul
Renner
Undecided
St. Pete Polls[37][B]October 13–15, 20251,034 (LV)± 3.0%4%39%3%54%
12%52%36%
The American Promise[38]September 4–5, 2025800 (LV)± 3.5%2%40%2%54%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size[a]
Margin
of error
Casey
DeSantis
Byron
Donalds
Matt
Gaetz
Ashley
Moody
Jeanette
Nuñez
Jimmy
Patronis
Wilton
Simpson
Francis
Suarez
Michael
Waltz
OtherUndecided
St. Pete Polls[37][B]October 13–15, 20251,034 (LV)± 3.0%21%47%36%
Targoz Market Research[36][A]September 16–18, 2025510 (RV)26%23%2%9%[b]39%
University of North Florida[39]July 14–22, 2025797 (RV)± 3.9%32%29%8%1%2%10%[c]18%
St. Pete Polls[40][41][B]July 8–10, 2025831 (LV)± 3.4%27%35%3%2%[d]32%
Targoz Market Research[42][43][A]May 5–7, 2025516 (RV)29%28%10%7%4%5%4%[e]13%
Targoz Market Research[42][44][A]April 15–22, 2025619 (RV)28%22%8%9%4%7%4%[e]18%
Fabrizio, Lee & Associates (R)[45]February 26–27, 2025600 (LV)± 5.0%30%34%3%33%
Victory Insights (R)[46]January 26–27, 2025850 (LV)± 3.5%34%5%61%
31%4%3%1%60%
Florida Atlantic University/
Mainstreet Research
[47]
June 8–9, 2024366 (RV)± 3.3%43%19%13%14%5%7%[f]
Florida Atlantic University/
Mainstreet Research
[48]
April 15–17, 2024372 (RV)± 3.3%38%16%20%[g]26%
Victory Insights (R)[49]April 3–6, 20241,200 (LV)± 2.9%21%13%3%2%5%14%[h]43%
University of North Florida[50]October 23 – November 4, 2023788 (LV)± 3.8%22%9%9%6%2%3%1%1%1%6%[i]40%

Democratic primary

[edit]

Candidates

[edit]

Declared

[edit]

Announcement pending

[edit]

Publicly expressed interest

[edit]

Potential

[edit]

Declined

[edit]

Endorsements

[edit]
David Jolly

U.S. representatives

Statewide officials

State legislators
  • 62 state legislators[j]
Local officials

Polling

[edit]
Hypothetical polling
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size[a]
Margin
of error
Jason
Pizzo
Daniella Levine
Cava
Gwen
Graham
David
Jolly
Lauren
Book
Angie
Nixon
Shevrin
Jones
Fentrice
Driskell
OtherUndecided
Targoz Market Research[42][43][A]May 5–7, 2025396 (RV)32%13%10%7%6%4%7%21%
Targoz Market Research[42][44][A]April 15–22, 2025464 (RV)41%15%5%7%4%4%2%1%21%

Independent and third-party candidates

[edit]

Independent candidates

[edit]

Publicly expressed interest

[edit]

Filed paperwork

[edit]

Endorsements

[edit]
Jason Pizzo

Organizations

Libertarian Party

[edit]

Filed paperwork

[edit]

General election

[edit]

Predictions

[edit]
SourceRankingAs of
The Cook Political Report[66]Solid RSeptember 11, 2025
Inside Elections[67]Solid RAugust 28, 2025
Sabato's Crystal Ball[68]Safe RSeptember 4, 2025
Race to the WH[69]Tilt RSeptember 11, 2025

Polling

[edit]

Byron Donalds vs. David Jolly

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size[a]
Margin
of error
Byron
Donalds (R)
David
Jolly (D)
OtherUndecided
Targoz Market Research[36][A]September 16–18, 20251,118 (RV)± 2.8%36%32%4%[k]28%
Bendixen & Amandi International (D)[70][C]September 7–9, 2025631 (LV)± 4.0%40%41%19%
AIF Center (R)[71]August 25–27, 2025800 (LV)± 3.5%49%41%11%
Victory Insights (R)[72]June 7–10, 2025600 (LV)± 2.8%37%31%32%

Paul Renner vs. David Jolly

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size[a]
Margin
of error
Paul
Renner (R)
David
Jolly (D)
OtherUndecided
Targoz Market Research[36][A]September 16–18, 20251,123 (RV)± 2.8%34%33%5%[l]28%
Bendixen & Amandi International (D)[70][C]September 7–9, 2025631 (LV)± 4.0%42%40%18%
Hypothetical polling

Byron Donalds vs. Daniella Levine Cava vs. Jason Pizzo

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size[a]
Margin
of error
Byron
Donalds (R)
Daniella Levine
Cava (D)
Jason
Pizzo (I)
Undecided
Targoz Market Research[42][43][A]May 5–7, 20251,200 (RV)± 2.8%38%34%5%23%

Casey DeSantis vs. Daniella Levine Cava vs. Jason Pizzo

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size[a]
Margin
of error
Casey
DeSantis (R)
Daniella Levine
Cava (D)
Jason
Pizzo (I)
Undecided
Targoz Market Research[42][43][A]May 5–7, 20251,200 (RV)± 2.8%39%35%8%18%

Generic Republican vs. generic Democrat

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size[a]
Margin
of error
Generic
Republican
Generic
Democrat
Undecided
Cygnal (R)[73][D]August 25–27, 20251,000 (LV)± 3.1%51%38%11%
Cygnal (R)[74]October 26–28, 2024600 (LV)± 4.0%48%41%11%

See also

[edit]

Notes

[edit]
  1. ^abcdefghiKey:
    A – all adults
    RV – registered voters
    LV – likely voters
    V – unclear
  2. ^Paul Renner with 7%; Jay Collins with 2%
  3. ^"Someone else" with 7%; "Wouldn't vote" with 2%; "Refused" with 1%
  4. ^Paul Renner with 2%
  5. ^abCharles Burkett with 3%; Ashton Hayward with 1%
  6. ^"Someone else" with 7%
  7. ^"Another candidate" with 20%
  8. ^"Someone else" with 14%
  9. ^"Someone else" with 6%
  10. ^Democratic legislators[60][61]Republican legislators[60]
  11. ^Jason Pizzo (I) with 4%
  12. ^Jason Pizzo (I) with 5%

Partisan clients

  1. ^abcdefghijPoll sponsored by theJames Madison Institute, a conservative think tank
  2. ^abcPoll sponsored byFlorida Politics
  3. ^abPoll sponsored by Jolly's campaign
  4. ^Poll sponsored by Conservatives for Clean Energy

References

[edit]
  1. ^"Article IV, Florida Constitution".Ballotpedia. RetrievedMay 13, 2023.
  2. ^Scheckner, Jesse (March 31, 2025)."Charles Burkett, Surfside's 4-term Mayor, says he's running for Governor".Florida Politics. RetrievedMarch 31, 2025.
  3. ^Leonard, Kimberly; Matat, Stephany (February 25, 2025)."Rep. Byron Donalds, backed by Trump, says he's running for Florida governor".Associated Press. RetrievedFebruary 25, 2025.
  4. ^Gancarski, A.G. (September 3, 2025)."Paul Renner, former Florida House speaker, announces run for Governor".Florida Politics. RetrievedSeptember 3, 2025.
  5. ^Gancarski, A.G. (May 29, 2025)."'Incredible': Jay Collins addresses potential 2026 run for Governor".Florida Politics. RetrievedMay 30, 2025.
  6. ^abcWilson, Kirby (June 23, 2025)."Who's running for Florida governor in 2026? We check in on the race".Tampa Bay Times.Archived from the original on June 24, 2025. RetrievedJune 25, 2025.
  7. ^Manjares, Javier (July 1, 2025)."Wilton Simpson Still Considering a run for Governor in 2026".The Floridian. RetrievedJuly 6, 2025.
  8. ^Scheckner, Jesse (August 4, 2025)."4 people have filed for a Special Election to replace Joe Casello in HD 90. Not all are serious candidates".Florida Politics. RetrievedAugust 4, 2025.
  9. ^Fineout, Gary; Leonard, Kimberly (July 11, 2025)."He was DeSantis' 'bulldog.' Will Trump help Florida's attorney general stick around?".Politico. RetrievedJuly 14, 2025.
  10. ^Riski, Tess (September 8, 2025)."Miami's outgoing mayor celebrates G20 win as he eyes his next career move".Miami Herald.Archived from the original on September 10, 2025. RetrievedSeptember 10, 2025.
  11. ^Dixon, Matt (February 20, 2025)."Trump backs Rep. Byron Donalds in his likely run for Florida governor in 2026".NBC News. RetrievedFebruary 20, 2025.
  12. ^abcdefghijklmnopqrstuvwWilson, Kirby (February 17, 2025)."Does Donald Trump have a favorite Republican in the 2026 governor's race?".Tampa Bay Times. RetrievedMarch 18, 2025.
  13. ^abcScheckner, Jesse (March 17, 2025)."'A true patriot': Byron Donalds adds endorsement from Miami Young Republicans".Florida Politics. RetrievedFebruary 20, 2025.
  14. ^Gancarski, A.G. (March 17, 2025)."Rick Scott siding with Byron Donalds over Casey DeSantis for Florida Governor".Florida Politics. RetrievedMarch 18, 2025.
  15. ^Gancarski, A.G. (September 2, 2025)."Aaron Bean backs Byron Donalds for Governor".Florida Politics. RetrievedSeptember 2, 2025.
  16. ^Leonard, Kimberly (March 18, 2025)."Trump-backed Byron Donalds gets first congressional endorsement for Florida governor".Politico. RetrievedMarch 18, 2025.
  17. ^abLeonard, Kimberly; Domínguez, Isa (March 28, 2025)."Parkland bill faces the state Senate — again".Politico. RetrievedMarch 28, 2025.
  18. ^abcdefgOgles, Jacob (April 9, 2025)."Seven more Florida congressional colleagues endorse Byron Donalds for Governor".Florida Politics. RetrievedApril 9, 2025.
  19. ^Ogles, Jacob (October 13, 2025)."Neal Dunn becomes latest in Florida congressional delegation to endorse Byron Donalds".Florida Politics. RetrievedOctober 13, 2025.
  20. ^abcdWilson, Drew (April 29, 2025)."Top congressional Republicans line up behind Byron Donalds".Florida Politics. RetrievedApril 29, 2025.
  21. ^abcdefOgles, Jacob (February 26, 2025)."Florida leaders line up to endorse Byron Donalds on Day 1".Florida Politics. RetrievedFebruary 26, 2025.
  22. ^Jo Cooper, Amber (August 21, 2025)."U.S. Rep. Haridopolos endorses Rep. Donalds' bid for Florida governor".The Floridian. RetrievedAugust 21, 2025.
  23. ^Leonard, Kimberly; Domínguez, Isa (April 3, 2025)."Stephanie Murphy talks next moves — for her and for Democrats".Politico. RetrievedApril 3, 2025.
  24. ^Manjarres, Javier (August 11, 2025)."Luna Endorses Donalds' 'America First' Gubernatorial Campaign".The Floridian. RetrievedAugust 11, 2025.
  25. ^abc"Byron Donalds Holds Miami Meet and Greet, Talks about Feud Between DeSantis and Legislature, Insurance, and Squaring off Against Pizzo and Jolly".The Floridian. May 13, 2025. RetrievedOctober 14, 2025.
  26. ^"LIVE: Byron Donalds Florida governor run kick off".FOX 35 Orlando. March 28, 2025. RetrievedMarch 30, 2025.
  27. ^Ogles, Jacob (March 29, 2025)."'Bold and clear': Byron Donalds kicks off campaign for Governor from Bonita Springs".Florida Politics. RetrievedMarch 28, 2025.
  28. ^abScheckner, Jesse (March 10, 2025)."Poll: Donald Trump's endorsement gives Byron Donalds double-digit lead in GOP Primary for Governor".Florida Politics. RetrievedMarch 13, 2025.
  29. ^Outzen, Rick (June 3, 2025)."Breaking: Pensacola mayor endorses Byron Donalds for governor".Rick's Blog. RetrievedOctober 14, 2025.
  30. ^abcOgles, Jacob (September 29, 2025)."'Making Florida great': 15 Sheriffs endorse Byron Donalds for Governor".Florida Politics. RetrievedSeptember 30, 2025.
  31. ^Gancarski, A.G. (March 27, 2025)."Erika Donalds says Casey DeSantis 'teased a run' for Governor, but Byron Donalds can better deal with Florida issues".Florida Politics. RetrievedMarch 27, 2025.
  32. ^Ogles, Jacob (March 13, 2025)."Turning Point USA's Charlie Kirk backs Byron Donalds' bid for Governor".Florida Politics. RetrievedMarch 13, 2025.
  33. ^Caputo, Marc (March 12, 2025)."Scoop: Trump Jr. backs Donalds for Fla. governor in MAGA squeeze play".Axios. RetrievedMarch 12, 2025.
  34. ^Mitola, Will (March 11, 2025)."CfG PAC Endorses Rep. Byron Donalds in FL-GOV Race".Club for Growth. RetrievedMarch 11, 2025.
  35. ^Gancarski, A.G. (May 9, 2024)."After Gainesville pizza problem, Ric Flair endorses Ashley Moody for Governor".Florida Politics. RetrievedMay 9, 2024.
  36. ^abcd"Marginals"(PDF).James Madison Institute. September 19, 2025. RetrievedSeptember 29, 2025.
  37. ^abFlorell, Matt (October 16, 2025)."Florida Statewide survey conducted for Floridapolitics.com". St. Pete Polls. RetrievedOctober 16, 2025.
  38. ^Schnecker, Jesse (September 8, 2025)."Poll: Byron Donalds' already crushing Primary lead is growing".Florida Politics. RetrievedSeptember 8, 2025.
  39. ^"Casey DeSantis ahead by a hair in Florida Republican primary poll"(PDF).University of North Florida. July 24, 2025. RetrievedJuly 24, 2025.
  40. ^Perry, Mitch (July 14, 2025)."Byron Donalds continues to lead all Florida Republicans in 2026 gubernatorial poll".Florida Phoenix. RetrievedJuly 14, 2025.
  41. ^"Florida Statewide survey conducted for FloridaPolitics.com"(PDF).St. Pete Polls. July 10, 2025. RetrievedJuly 14, 2025.
  42. ^abcdef"JMI Polls May 2025".James Madison Institute. May 9, 2025. RetrievedMay 9, 2025.
  43. ^abcd"JMI May 2025 Poll Marginals – Registered Voters"(PDF).James Madison Institute. May 9, 2025. RetrievedMay 9, 2025.
  44. ^ab"JMI April 2025 Poll Marginals – Registered Voters"(PDF).James Madison Institute. May 9, 2025. RetrievedMay 9, 2025.
  45. ^Scheckner, Jesse (March 10, 2025)."Poll: Donald Trump's endorsement gives Byron Donalds double-digit lead in GOP Primary for Governor".Florida Politics. RetrievedApril 24, 2025.
  46. ^"Byron Donalds Dominates Republican Primary Field for Governor of Florida"(PDF).Victory Insights. January 29, 2025. RetrievedApril 24, 2025.
  47. ^"Mainstreet Research Survey - Florida"(PDF).FAU Polling. June 12, 2024. RetrievedApril 24, 2025.
  48. ^"Mainstreet Research Survey - Florida"(PDF).FAU Polling. April 18, 2024. RetrievedApril 24, 2025.
  49. ^"FLORIDA POLL: Byron Donalds Leads First Poll of 2026 GOP Race for Governor"(PDF).Victory Insights. April 12, 2024. RetrievedApril 24, 2025.
  50. ^"UNF Poll: Trump Pulls Ahead in Florida Republican Presidential Primary"(PDF).University of North Florida. November 7, 2023. RetrievedApril 24, 2025.
  51. ^Leonard, Kimberly (June 5, 2025)."Well-known Trump critic David Jolly enters race for Florida governor".Politico. RetrievedJune 5, 2025.
  52. ^Leonard, Kimberly; Fineout, Gary (October 6, 2025)."Uthmeier addresses firearm policy".Politico. RetrievedOctober 9, 2025.
  53. ^Leonard, Kimberly (October 7, 2025)."Inside Demings' timeline and thinking".Politico. RetrievedOctober 9, 2025.
  54. ^Rosica, Jim (August 2, 2025)."Former US Rep. Al Lawson of Tallahassee eyes Florida governor race in 2026".Tallahassee Democrat. RetrievedAugust 2, 2025.
  55. ^Gancarski, A.G. (July 31, 2025)."Angie Nixon considers Senate run, along with other possibilities".Florida Politics. RetrievedAugust 1, 2025.
  56. ^Bustos, Sergio (May 12, 2025)."Democratic legislator Jason Pizzo says he plans to run for governor in 2026".WLRN-FM. RetrievedJuly 6, 2025.
  57. ^abcdGancarski, A.G. (July 9, 2025)."David Jolly rolls out endorsements from 'Democratic powerhouses' Gwen Graham, Donna Shalala, Karen Thurman".Florida Politics. RetrievedJuly 9, 2025.
  58. ^Solender, Andrew (November 27, 2024)."Scoop: A huge wave of House members is eyeing runs for other offices in 2026".Axios. RetrievedNovember 27, 2024.
  59. ^Adragna, Anthony (December 17, 2024)."Moskowitz brushes aside FEMA reports".Politico. RetrievedDecember 17, 2024.'I am staying in Congress and running for re-election,' Moskowitz (D-Fla.) said
  60. ^abcdefgTaylor, Janelle (August 5, 2025)."David Jolly rolls out trove of endorsements from 60 current and former Democratic elected officials".Florida Politics. RetrievedAugust 11, 2025.
  61. ^abcdefScheckner, Jesse (September 25, 2025)."40 current, former Broward leaders back David Jolly for Governor, citing cross-aisle appeal".Florida Politics. RetrievedSeptember 26, 2025.
  62. ^Leonard, Kimberly (October 8, 2025)."Florida Senate Dems' opening property insurance bids".Politico. RetrievedOctober 9, 2025.
  63. ^"Candidate Tracking System". Florida Division of Elections. June 26, 2024. RetrievedJune 26, 2024.
  64. ^"Is it time to break the two-party doom loop?".No Labels. June 7, 2025. RetrievedAugust 2, 2025.
  65. ^Shaw, Derrick (June 5, 2025)."22 candidates have officially filed, entering the 2026 race for Florida governor".WBBH-TV.
  66. ^"2026 CPR Governor Race ratings".Cook Political Report. RetrievedJanuary 23, 2025.
  67. ^"Gubernatorial Ratings".Inside Elections. RetrievedFebruary 7, 2025.
  68. ^"2026 Governor".Sabato's Crystal Ball. RetrievedMay 1, 2025.
  69. ^"Governor Forecast - 2026-2026".Race to the WH. RetrievedJune 30, 2025.
  70. ^abTaylor, Janelle (September 10, 2025)."Poll: David Jolly in dead heat with Byron Donalds, Paul Renner".Florida Politics. RetrievedSeptember 11, 2025.
  71. ^Ogles, Jacob (September 11, 2025)."New poll shows Byron Donalds with 8-point edge on David Jolly".Florida Politics. RetrievedSeptember 11, 2025.
  72. ^Galbraith, Ben (June 11, 2025)."POLLING MEMO: BYRON DONALDS LEADS DAVID JOLLY FOR GOVERNOR OF FLORIDA"(PDF). Victory Insights. RetrievedJune 11, 2025.
  73. ^"Survey of Likely 2026 General Election Voters – Florida Stateweide"(PDF).Cygnal. September 4, 2025. RetrievedSeptember 19, 2025.
  74. ^"Survey of Likely General Election Voters – Florida Stateweide"(PDF).Cygnal. October 30, 2024. RetrievedApril 24, 2025.

External links

[edit]

Official campaign websites

U.S.
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