| |||||||
| |||||||
| Elections in Arizona | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ||||||||
The2026 Arizona gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place on November 3, 2026, to elect thegovernor of Arizona. The primary elections will take place on July 21, 2026.[1] IncumbentDemocratic GovernorKatie Hobbs is running for a second term.
Following the passage of Proposition 131 in the2022 elections, this will be the first gubernatorial election in Arizona in which candidates will be required to nominate a running mate for the newly established position oflieutenant governor.[2]
This will be one of five Democratic-held governorships up for election in 2026 in a state thatDonald Trump won in the2024 presidential election.
Arizona is considered to be apurple state at both the federal and statewide level. AfterJoe Biden carried the state narrowly in the2020 presidential election,[3]Donald Trump carried the state of Arizona by 5.5 points in the2024 presidential election.[4] Democrats control bothU.S. Senate seats in Arizona[5][6] and hold the governorship and secretary of state office.[7][8] Meanwhile, Republicans maintain a majority in theArizona Senate andArizona House of Representatives,[9] and control 6 of the 9House of Representatives seats in the state.[10]
Aggregate polls
| Source of poll aggregation | Dates administered | Dates updated | Andy Biggs | Karrin Taylor Robson | David Schweikert | Undecided[a] | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 270toWin[52] | October 26-November 10, 2025 | January 1, 2026 | 46.5% | 18.0% | 5.0% | 30.5% | Biggs +28.5% |
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size[b] | Margin of error | Andy Biggs | Karrin Taylor Robson | David Schweikert | Other | Undecided | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| February 12, 2026 | Taylor Robson suspends her campaign. | |||||||||
| Emerson College[53] | November 8–10, 2025 | 381 (RV) | ± 5.0% | 50% | 17% | 8% | 1%[c] | 24% | ||
| GrayHouse (R)[54] | October 26–28, 2025 | 397 (LV) | ± 3.6% | 43% | 19% | 2% | – | 36% | ||
| Pulse Decision Science (R)[55] | September 8–10, 2025 | 502 (LV) | ± 4.4% | 48% | 26% | 11% | – | 15% | ||
| 55% | 31% | – | – | 14% | ||||||
| 61% | – | 23% | – | 16% | ||||||
| Kreate Strategies (R)[56] | August 19–21, 2025 | 679 (RV) | – | 65% | 14% | – | – | 21% | ||
| Noble Predictive Insights[57] | August 11–18, 2025 | 385 (RV) | ± 5.0% | 27% | 37% | – | – | 36% | ||
| NextGen P (R)[58] | June 17–18, 2025 | 1,380 (LV) | ± 2.6% | 49% | 26% | – | 8% | 17% | ||
| Kreate Strategies (R)[59][A] | May 23–25, 2025 | 1,147 (LV) | ± 2.9% | 57% | 25% | – | – | 18% | ||
| Pulse Decision Science (R)[60][B] | April 6–9, 2025 | 511 (LV) | ± 4.4% | 45% | 16% | – | – | 39% | ||
| NicoPAC (R)[61] | April 2–6, 2025 | 477 (RV) | ± 4.5% | 66% | 15% | – | 4% | 15% | ||
| NicoPAC (R)[62] | January 24–26, 2025 | 512 (RV) | ± 4.3% | 71% | 14% | – | – | 15% | ||
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size[b] | Margin of error | Andy Biggs | Jake Hoffman | Charlie Kirk | Jack McCain | Karrin Taylor Robson | Kimberly Yee | Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Noble Predictive Insights[63] | May 12–16, 2025 | 426 (RV) | ± 4.8% | 17% | – | 17% | – | 24% | 6% | – | 37% |
| Noble Predictive Insights[64] | February 11–13, 2025 | 374 (RV) | ± 5.1% | 14% | 1% | 14% | 8% | 11% | 5% | – | 47% |
| NicoPAC (R)[62] | January 24–26, 2025 | 512 (RV) | ± 4.3% | 59% | – | – | – | 9% | 11% | 3%[d] | 19% |
| Data Orbital[65][C] | January 18–20, 2025 | 500 (LV) | ± 4.5% | 32% | – | – | – | 12% | 7% | 4%[e] | 45% |
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size[b] | Margin of error | Andy Biggs | Kimberly Yee | Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NicoPAC (R)[62] | January 24–26, 2025 | 512 (RV) | ± 4.3% | 67% | 19% | – | 14% |
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size[b] | Margin of error | Karrin Taylor Robson | Kimberly Yee | Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NicoPAC (R)[62] | January 24–26, 2025 | 512 (RV) | ± 4.3% | 15% | 41% | – | 43% |
| Source | Ranking | As of |
|---|---|---|
| The Cook Political Report[74] | Tossup | December 20, 2025 |
| Inside Elections[75] | Tossup | January 2, 2026 |
| Sabato's Crystal Ball[76] | Tossup | September 4, 2025 |
| Race to the WH[77] | Lean D | January 3, 2026 |
Katie Hobbs vs. Andy Biggs
Aggregate polls
| Source of poll aggregation | Dates administered | Dates updated | Katie Hobbs (D) | Andy Biggs (R) | Other/ | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RealClearPolitics[78] | August 11 – November 10, 2025 | November 14, 2025 | 41.5% | 40.0% | 18.5% | Hobbs +1.5% |
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size[b] | Margin of error | Katie Hobbs (D) | Andy Biggs (R) | Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NXTGenP (R)[79] | December 15–17, 2025 | 2,725 (LV) | ± 1.9% | 51% | 32% | 7% | 9% |
| Emerson College[53] | November 8–10, 2025 | 850 (RV) | ± 3.3% | 44% | 43% | – | 13% |
| Noble Predictive Insights[57] | August 11–18, 2025 | 948 (RV) | ± 3.2% | 39% | 37% | 4%[h] | 20% |
| Noble Predictive Insights[63] | May 12–16, 2025 | 1,026 (RV) | ± 3.1% | 40% | 38% | 5%[i] | 17% |
| Pulse Decision Science (R)[60][B] | April 6–9, 2025 | 501 (LV) | ± 4.4% | 46% | 42% | – | 12% |
| Noble Predictive Insights[64] | February 11–13, 2025 | 1,006 (RV) | ± 3.1% | 40% | 38% | 5% | 17% |
| Kreate Strategies (R)[80][D] | February 5–7, 2025 | 924 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 43% | 44% | – | 13% |
Katie Hobbs vs. David Schweikert
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size[b] | Margin of error | Katie Hobbs (D) | David Schweikert (R) | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Emerson College[53] | November 8–10, 2025 | 850 (RV) | ± 3.3% | 44% | 39% | 17% |
Katie Hobbs vs. Karrin Taylor Robson
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size[b] | Margin of error | Katie Hobbs (D) | Karrin Taylor Robson (R) | Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NXTGenP (R)[79] | December 15–17, 2025 | 2,725 (LV) | ± 1.9% | 51% | 30% | 9% | 10% |
| Emerson College[53] | November 8–10, 2025 | 850 (RV) | ± 3.3% | 43% | 42% | – | 15% |
| Noble Predictive Insights[57] | August 11–18, 2025 | 948 (RV) | ± 3.2% | 40% | 38% | 4%[h] | 18% |
| Noble Predictive Insights[63] | May 12–16, 2025 | 1,026 (RV) | ± 3.1% | 41% | 39% | 3%[j] | 17% |
| Pulse Decision Science (R)[60][B] | April 6–9, 2025 | 501 (LV) | ± 4.4% | 47% | 38% | – | 15% |
| Noble Predictive Insights[64] | February 11–13, 2025 | 1,006 (RV) | ± 3.1% | 43% | 35% | 4% | 18% |
| Kreate Strategies (R)[80][D] | February 5–7, 2025 | 924 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 40% | 38% | – | 22% |
Katie Hobbs vs. Charlie Kirk
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size[b] | Margin of error | Katie Hobbs (D) | Charlie Kirk (R) | Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Noble Predictive Insights[64] | February 11–13, 2025 | 1,006 (RV) | ± 3.1% | 39% | 36% | 7% | 18% |
Katie Hobbs vs. Jake Hoffman
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size[b] | Margin of error | Katie Hobbs (D) | Jake Hoffman (R) | Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Noble Predictive Insights[64] | February 11–13, 2025 | 1,006 (RV) | ± 3.1% | 40% | 35% | 5% | 20% |
Katie Hobbs vs. Jack McCain
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size[b] | Margin of error | Katie Hobbs (D) | Jack McCain (R) | Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Noble Predictive Insights[64] | February 11–13, 2025 | 1,006 (RV) | ± 3.1% | 37% | 36% | 6% | 21% |
Katie Hobbs vs. Kimberly Yee
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size[b] | Margin of error | Katie Hobbs (D) | Kimberly Yee (R) | Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Noble Predictive Insights[64] | February 11–13, 2025 | 1,006 (RV) | ± 3.1% | 40% | 34% | 6% | 20% |
Katie Hobbs vs. generic Republican
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size[b] | Margin of error | Katie Hobbs (D) | Generic Republican | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GrayHouse (R)[54] | October 26–28, 2025 | 744 (RV) | ± 3.6% | 40% | 44% | 16% |
Katie Hobbs vs. someone else
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size[b] | Margin of error | Katie Hobbs (D) | Someone else | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GrayHouse (R)[54] | October 26–28, 2025 | 744 (RV) | ± 3.6% | 43% | 48% | 9% |
Partisan clients
Fontes told The Post this week that he is running for reelection and is no longer considering challenging Hobbs in the Democratic primary for governor.
There's also been talk from the Democratic side of Attorney General Kris Mayes challenging [Katie Hobbs]...She says as of right now she's planning on running for reelection.
Rep. Juan Ciscomani (R-Ariz.) will run for reelection to Congress rather than mount a bid for governor in 2026, his campaign spokesperson told Axios.
A smattering of prominent and not-so-prominent Republicans are being mentioned as possibilities for making a run at Democratic Gov. Katie Hobbs in 2026...some are floating Sen. Jake Hoffman as a possibility.