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2025 Canadian federal election in Nova Scotia

From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

2025 Canadian federal election in Nova Scotia

← 2021April 28, 2025 (2025-04-28)Next →

All 11 Nova Scotian seats in theHouse of Commons
Registered799,595
Turnout577,740 (72.25%)[1]
 First partySecond partyThird party
 
Mark Carney portrait February 2020.jpg
Pierre Poilievre in 2023 (edited).jpg
Jagmeet Singh in Brantford 2022 2 (cropped3).jpg
LeaderMark CarneyPierre PoilievreJagmeet Singh
PartyLiberalConservativeNew Democratic
Leader sinceMarch 9, 2025September 10, 2022October 1, 2017
Last election8 seats, 42.3%3 seats, 29.4%0 seats, 22.1%
Seats before730
Seats won1010
Seat changeIncrease 3Decrease 2Steady 0
Popular vote330,556203,29030,129
Percentage57.2%35.2%5.2%
SwingIncrease 14.9%Increase 5.8%Decrease 16.9%

Prime minister before election

Mark Carney
Liberal

Prime minister after election

Mark Carney
Liberal

In the2025 Canadian federal election, 11members of Parliament were elected to theHouse of Commons from the province ofNova Scotia (3.2% of all members).

2022 electoral redistribution

[edit]

The 2025 Canadian federal election was the first election to utilize the electoral districts established following the2022 Canadian federal electoral redistribution. The House of Commons increased from 338 seats to 343 seats. Nova Scotia's seat allocation stayed the same at 11 seats. This ensures that the average population per constituency in Nova Scotia is 88,126 (according to the2021 Canadian census), which is 19,722 less people per electoral district than the national average.[2]

Timeline

[edit]
See also:By-elections to the 44th Canadian Parliament
Changes in Nova Scotian seats held (2021–2025)
SeatBeforeChange
DateMemberPartyReasonDateMemberParty
HalifaxAugust 31, 2024Andy Fillmore LiberalResigned torun for the mayoralty of Halifax, Nova ScotiaApril 14, 2025(cancelled) Vacant

Predictions

[edit]
See also:Opinion polling for the 2025 Canadian federal election
Polling firmLast date
of polling
LinkLPCCPCNDPGPCPPCOthersMargin
of error[a]
Sample
size[b]
Polling method[c]Lead
Abacus DataMarch 20, 2025[3]463712321± 4.1 pp600Online9
Cardinal ResearchNovember 15, 2024[4]40371731± 3.5 pp1046Telephone3
Narrative ResearchAugust 18, 2024[5]304321420± 2.6 pp400Telephone13

Results

[edit]

Summary

[edit]
Nova Scotian summary seat results in the2025 Canadian federal election
PartyVotesVote %Vote +/-SeatsSeat +/-
Liberal330,556
57.2%
Increase 14.9pp
10 / 11 (91%)
Increase 3
Conservative203,290
35.2%
Increase 5.8pp
1 / 11 (9%)
Decrease 2
New Democratic30,129
5.2%
Decrease 16.9pp
0 / 11 (0%)
Steady 0
Green5,442
0.9%
Decrease 1.0pp
0 / 11 (0%)
Steady 0
People's5,126
0.9%
Decrease 3.1pp
0 / 11 (0%)
Steady 0
Independents andminor parties3,197
0.6%
Increase 0.3pp
0 / 11 (0%)
Steady 0
Total577,740
100%
11 / 11 (100%)
Increase 1[d]

[6]

Comparison with national results

[edit]
Results by party
PartyPopular vote %Seats in caucus
NSNatl.diff.
Liberal57.243.7+13.5
10 / 169 (6%)
Conservative35.241.3-6.1
1 / 144 (0.7%)
New Democratic5.26.3-1.1
0 / 7 (0%)
Green0.91.2-0.3
0 / 1 (0%)
People's0.90.7+0.2no caucus
 Total
11 / 343 (3%)

Student vote results

[edit]

Student votes aremock elections that run parallel to actual elections, in which students not ofvoting age participate. They are administered by Student Vote Canada. These are for educational purposes and do not count towards the results.[7]

Summary of the 2025 Canadian Student Vote in Nova Scotia
PartyLeaderSeatsPopular vote
Elected%ΔVotes%Δ (pp)
LiberalMark Carney872.73Increase 411,46039.99Increase 11.88
ConservativePierre Poilievre327.27Increase 18,61130.05Increase 9.85
New DemocraticJagmeet Singh00Decrease 53,69412.89Decrease 18.67
GreenElizabeth May &Jonathan Pedneault00Steady 02,6579.27Decrease 1.65
People'sMaxime Bernier00Steady 01,6385.72Decrease 0.87
Other00Steady 0 5972.08Decrease 0.54
Total11100.00Steady 028,657100.00
Source: Student Vote Canada[8]

Aftermath

[edit]

Several months following the election,Chris d'Entremont, theConservative MP forAcadie—Annapolis, crossed the floor to theLiberal Party. This meant thatNova Scotia's entire delegation to theHouse of Commons were members of the Liberal Party.[9]

See also

[edit]

Notes

[edit]
  1. ^In cases when linked poll details distinguish between the margin of error associated with the total sample of respondents (including undecided and non-voters) and that of the subsample of decided/leaning voters, the former is included in the table. Also not included is the margin of error created by rounding to the nearest whole number or any margin of error from methodological sources. Most online polls (because of their opt-in method of recruiting panelists which results in a non-random sample) cannot have a margin of error. In such cases, shown is what the margin of error would be for a survey using a random probability-based sample of equivalent size.
  2. ^Refers to the total, "raw" sample size, including undecided and non-voters, and before demographic weighting is applied. Fractions in parentheses apply to rolling polls (see below) and indicate the proportion of the sample that is independent from the previous poll in the series.
  3. ^"Telephone" refers to traditional telephone polls conducted by live interviewers; "IVR" refers to automated Interactive Voice Response polls conducted by telephone; "online" refers to polls conducted exclusively over the internet; "telephone/online" refers to polls which combine results from both telephone and online surveys, or for which respondents are initially recruited by telephone and then asked to complete an online survey. "Rolling" polls contain overlapping data from one poll to the next.
  4. ^ 1 seat was vacant at the dissolution of Parliament.

References

[edit]
  1. ^"Election Night Results - Provinces & Territories".
  2. ^"New House of Commons Seat Allocation" (Press release).Gatineau:Elections Canada. July 8, 2022.Archived from the original on July 8, 2022. RetrievedJuly 8, 2022.
  3. ^"Abacus Data Poll: What's Happening in Nova Scotia". Abacus Data. RetrievedMarch 24, 2024.
  4. ^"Nova Scotia Provincial Polling November 7-15, 2024". Cardinal Research. RetrievedNovember 21, 2024.
  5. ^https://narrativeresearch.ca/wp-content/uploads/2024/08/24-3-Federal-Voting-Intentions-FINAL.pdf[bare URL PDF]
  6. ^"Election Night Results - Provinces & Territories".
  7. ^"Student Vote Canada".
  8. ^"Student Vote Canada 2025 — Results". RetrievedApril 29, 2025.
  9. ^Tasker, John Paul (4 November 2025)."Nova Scotia MP Chris d'Entremont resigns from Conervative caucus to join the Liberals".CBC News.
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