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2024 United States presidential election in Washington (state)

From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

Main article:2024 United States presidential election
Not to be confused with2024 United States presidential election in the District of Columbia.
2024 United States presidential election in Washington

← 2020November 5, 20242028 →
Turnout78.94% (of registered voters) (Decrease5.20pp)[1]
 
NomineeKamala HarrisDonald Trump
PartyDemocraticRepublican
Home stateCaliforniaFlorida
Running mateTim WalzJD Vance
Electoral vote120
Popular vote2,245,8491,530,923
Percentage57.23%39.01%

County results
Congressional district results
Precinct results

Harris

  40–50%
  50–60%
  60–70%
  70–80%
  80–90%
  90–100%

Trump

  40–50%
  50–60%
  60–70%
  70–80%
  80–90%
  90–100%

Tie/No Votes

  
  


President before election

Joe Biden
Democratic

Elected President

Donald Trump
Republican

Elections in Washington (state)
Presidential elections
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The2024 United States presidential election in Washington took place on Tuesday, November 5, 2024, as part of the2024 United States presidential election in which all 50 states plus theDistrict of Columbia participated.Washington voters chose electors to represent them in theElectoral College via a popular vote. It was held along agubernatorial andU.S. Senate election. The state of Washington has 12 electoral votes in the Electoral College, followingreapportionment due to the2020 United States census in which the state neither gained nor lost a seat.[2]

Although Washington was a Republican-leaning swing state until the 1980s, Democrats have won Washington in every presidential election starting in 1988 and have consistently done so by double digits since 2008. Washington is part of the Democratic-leaningWest Coast, and was predicted to go comfortably to the Democratic Party in 2024.

As expected,Kamala Harris comfortably won Washington state. While Trump improved his margin in all fifty states, Washington had the smallest swing to the right, with Trump improving his margin by less than 1%, compared to the national swing of about 6%. After Biden’s 19% margin of victory in2020, Harris’ 18% margin was the second-largest in the state for the Democratic Party since1964.

Some of the few counties in the country to swing significantly leftward were in Washington, includingClallam,Island,Jefferson, andKitsap counties, where Harris had some of the best Democratic performances in their history.

In the former bellwetherClallam County, Harris had the best performance for any candidate since1984, and the best for any Democrat since1964. This ended Clallam County's 40-year bellwether streak from 1980 to 2020, as the county had not voted for the losing presidential candidate since1976.

Primary election

[edit]

Republican primary

[edit]
Main article:2024 Washington Republican presidential primary

The Washington Republican primary took place on March 12, 2024, alongside primaries inHawaii,Idaho,Mississippi, andMissouri.

Washington Republican primary, March 12, 2024[3]
CandidateVotesPercentageActual delegate count
BoundUnboundTotal
Donald Trump601,07076.43%43043
Nikki Haley (withdrawn)151,48519.26%000
Ron DeSantis (withdrawn)17,8702.27%000
Chris Christie (withdrawn)8,7021.11%000
Vivek Ramaswamy (withdrawn)7,3180.93%000
Total:786,445100.00%43043

Democratic primary

[edit]
Main article:2024 Washington Democratic presidential primary

The Washington Democratic primary took place on March 12, 2024, alongside primaries inDemocrats Abroad,Northern Marianas,Mississippi, andGeorgia.

Washington Democratic primary, March 12, 2024[4]
CandidateVotesPercentageActual delegate count
PledgedUnpledgedTotal
Joe Biden (incumbent)763,73983.5%90
Uncommitted delegates89,7649.8%2
Marianne Williamson25,3082.8%0
Dean Phillips (withdrawn)25,1902.8%0
Write-in votes10,9661.2%0
Total:914,967100.0%9219111

General election

[edit]

In the early hours of October 28 a ballot drop box inVancouver was found to be on fire damaging a number of ballots.[5] Police stated that a suspicious device had been found next to the box.[5]

Candidates

[edit]

The following presidential candidates have received ballot access in Washington:

Predictions

[edit]
SourceRankingAs of
Cook Political Report[6]Solid DNovember 4, 2024
Inside Elections[7]Solid DNovember 3, 2024
Sabato's Crystal Ball[8]Safe DNovember 4, 2024
Decision Desk HQ/The Hill[9]Safe DNovember 4, 2024
CNalysis[10]Solid DNovember 4, 2024
CNN[11]Safe DNovember 4, 2024
The Economist[12]Safe DNovember 4, 2024
538[13]Solid DNovember 4, 2024
RCP[14]Safe DNovember 4, 2024
NBC News[15]Solid DNovember 4, 2024

Polling

[edit]

Kamala Harris vs. Donald Trump

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size[a]
Margin
of error
Kamala
Harris
Democratic
Donald
Trump
Republican
Other /
Undecided
Research Co.[16]November 2–3, 2024450 (LV)± 4.6%54%39%7%
ActiVote[17]October 3–29, 2024400 (LV)± 4.9%59%41%
Public Policy Polling (D)[18][A]October 16–17, 2024571 (LV)± 4.1%55%40%6%
Strategies 360[19][B]October 11–16, 2024600 (RV)± 4.0%55%39%6%[b]
SurveyUSA[20][C]October 9–14, 2024703 (LV)± 4.9%57%35%8%
ActiVote[21]September 7 – October 13, 2024400 (LV)± 4.9%60%40%
Elway Research[22][D]October 8–12, 2024401 (RV)± 5.0%57%32%11%
Elway Research[23][D]September 3–6, 2024403 (RV)± 5.0%53%32%11%
July 21, 2024Joe Biden announceshis withdrawal from the race; Kamala Harris declaresher candidacy for president.
DHM Research[24]July 12–17, 2024500 (RV)± 4.4%45%40%14%[c]
SurveyUSA[25][C]July 10–13, 2024708 (LV)± 5.0%51%36%13%

Kamala Harris vs. Donald Trump vs Robert F. Kennedy Jr.

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size[a]
Margin
of error
Kamala
Harris
Democratic
Donald
Trump
Republican
Robert F.
Kennedy Jr.
Independent
Other /
Undecided
Public Policy Polling (D)[26][A]July 24–25, 2024581 (LV)± 4.0%52%38%6%4%
Hypothetical polling with Joe Biden and Donald Trump

Joe Biden vs. Donald Trump

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size[a]
Margin
of error
Joe
Biden
Democratic
Donald
Trump
Republican
Other /
Undecided
DHM Research[24]July 12–17, 2024500 (RV)± 4.4%45%38%17%[d]
SurveyUSA[25][C]July 10–13, 2024708 (LV)± 5.0%50%36%14%
Public Policy Polling (D)[27][A]May 15–16, 2024615 (LV)± 4.0%55%39%6%
The Bullfinch Group[28][E]April 16–23, 2024250 (RV)± 6.2%45%46%9%
John Zogby Strategies[29][F]April 13–21, 2024418 (LV)52%40%8%
Echelon Insights[30][G]March 18–21, 2024600 (RV)± 4.7%48%37%15%
Public Policy Polling (D)[31][A]February 13–14, 2024797 (LV)± 3.5%54%38%8%
Public Policy Polling (D)[32][A]November 14–15, 2023700 (LV)± 3.7%52%38%10%
Elway Research[33][D]October 30 – November 3, 2023403 (RV)± 5.0%39%29%31%[e]
Public Policy Polling (D)[34][A]June 7–8, 2023773 (LV)± 3.5%53%36%11%
Emerson College[35]September 30 – October 1, 2022782 (LV)± 3.4%49%39%12%
McLaughlin & Associates (R)[36]August 15–17, 2022500 (LV)± 4.4%54%41%6%

Joe Biden vs. Donald Trump vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Cornel West vs. Jill Stein

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size[a]
Margin
of error
Joe
Biden
Democratic
Donald
Trump
Republican
Robert F.
Kennedy Jr.
Independent
Cornel
West
Independent
Jill
Stein
Green
Other /
Undecided
Elway Research[37][D]May 13–16, 2024403 (RV)± 5.0%42%34%3%1%0%17%
The Bullfinch Group[28][E]April 16–23, 2024250 (RV)± 6.2%35%40%13%1%4%8%
Elway Research[33][D]October 30 – November 3, 2023403 (RV)± 5.0%37%25%9%3%26%[f]
Hypothetical polling with other candidates

Joe Biden vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr.

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size[a]
Margin
of error
Joe
Biden
Democratic
Robert F.
Kennedy Jr.
Independent
Other /
Undecided
John Zogby Strategies[29][F]April 13–21, 2024418 (LV)45%45%10%

Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Donald Trump

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size[a]
Margin
of error
Robert F.
Kennedy Jr.
Independent
Donald
Trump
Republican
Other /
Undecided
John Zogby Strategies[29][F]April 13–21, 2024418 (LV)49%31%20%

Gretchen Whitmer vs. Donald Trump

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size[a]
Margin
of error
Gretchen
Whitmer
Democratic
Donald
Trump
Republican
Other /
Undecided
DHM Research[24]July 12–17, 2024500 (RV)± 4.4%42%38%20%[g]

Josh Shapiro vs. Donald Trump

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size[a]
Margin
of error
Josh
Shapiro
Democratic
Donald
Trump
Republican
Other /
Undecided
DHM Research[24]July 12–17, 2024500 (RV)± 4.4%40%38%22%[g]

Raphael Warnock vs. Donald Trump

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size[a]
Margin
of error
Raphael
Warnock
Democratic
Donald
Trump
Republican
Other /
Undecided
DHM Research[24]July 12–17, 2024500 (RV)± 4.4%40%37%23%[h]

Joe Biden vs. Ron DeSantis

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size[a]
Margin
of error
Joe
Biden
Democratic
Ron
DeSantis
Republican
Other /
Undecided
Public Policy Polling (D)[34][A]June 7–8, 2023773 (LV)± 3.5%51%39%10%


Results

[edit]
State legislative district results
2024 United States presidential election in Washington[38]
PartyCandidateVotes%±%
Democratic2,245,84957.23%Decrease 0.74%
Republican1,530,92339.01%Increase 0.24%
We the People54,8681.40%N/A
Green29,7540.76%Increase 0.31%
Libertarian16,4280.42%Decrease 1.55%
Socialism and LiberationClaudia De la Cruz
Karina Garcia
8,6950.22%Increase 0.10%
Justice for All7,2540.18%N/A
Independent
3,3230.08%N/A
Socialist EqualityJoseph Kishore
Jerome White
9170.02%N/A
Socialist WorkersRachele Fruit
Dennis Richter
8240.02%Decrease 0.04%
Write-in25,4080.65%Decrease 0.02%
Total votes3,924,243100.00%N/A

By county

[edit]
County[39]Kamala Harris
Democratic
Donald Trump
Republican
Various candidates
Other parties
MarginTotal
#%#%#%#%
Adams1,45527.12%3,76770.21%1432.67%-2,312-43.09%5,365
Asotin4,08235.59%7,00461.07%3823.33%-2,922-25.48%11,468
Benton37,66237.40%59,55559.15%3,4763.45%-21,893-21.74%100,693
Chelan18,39743.60%22,36353.00%1,4313.39%-3,966-9.40%42,191
Clallam25,44052.28%21,63244.45%1,5913.27%3,8087.83%48,663
Clark143,20651.78%123,99844.83%9,3743.39%19,2086.94%276,578
Columbia66126.60%1,73769.90%873.50%-1,076-43.30%2,485
Cowlitz22,82538.47%34,58058.29%1,9203.24%-11,755-19.81%59,325
Douglas7,41034.98%13,09561.82%6773.20%-5,685-26.84%21,182
Ferry1,31531.93%2,66764.75%1373.33%-1,352-32.82%4,119
Franklin11,88437.26%19,08659.84%9272.91%-7,202-22.58%31,897
Garfield33024.41%97371.97%493.62%-643-47.56%1,352
Grant10,80629.81%24,32667.10%1,1213.09%-13,520-37.29%36,253
Grays Harbor17,16145.41%19,43251.42%1,2003.18%-2,271-6.01%37,793
Island29,59556.43%20,96739.98%1,8873.60%8,62816.45%52,449
Jefferson17,45970.69%6,32425.61%9153.70%11,13545.08%24,698
King832,60673.65%252,19322.31%45,7034.04%580,41351.34%1,130,502
Kitsap91,73158.48%59,08037.66%6,0613.86%32,65120.81%156,872
Kittitas10,81040.79%14,64555.27%1,0443.94%-3,835-14.47%26,499
Klickitat5,91743.48%7,17852.75%5123.76%-1,261-9.27%13,607
Lewis14,43331.83%29,32264.67%1,5833.49%-14,889-32.84%45,338
Lincoln1,67823.49%5,27273.80%1942.72%-3,594-50.31%7,144
Mason17,21546.92%18,12749.41%1,3473.67%-912-2.49%36,689
Okanogan8,46640.84%11,55555.74%7113.43%-3,089-14.90%20,732
Pacific6,82547.91%7,01049.21%4092.87%-185-1.30%14,244
Pend Oreille2,46128.80%5,82668.18%2583.02%-3,365-39.38%8,545
Pierce235,16953.50%188,19442.81%16,2183.69%46,97510.69%439,581
San Juan9,53973.34%2,89022.22%5774.44%6,64951.12%13,006
Skagit36,95652.60%30,76543.79%2,5353.61%6,1918.81%70,256
Skamania3,14742.79%3,96153.85%2473.36%-814-11.07%7,355
Snohomish240,09957.41%161,37138.59%16,7514.01%78,72818.82%418,221
Spokane131,16345.69%145,33850.63%10,5813.69%-14,175-4.94%287,082
Stevens7,49226.52%19,89570.43%8593.04%-12,403-43.91%28,246
Thurston95,66358.14%62,28237.85%6,5924.01%33,38120.29%164,537
Wahkiakum1,20439.32%1,75757.38%1013.30%-553-18.06%3,062
Walla Walla13,10644.32%15,47652.34%9863.33%-2,370-8.02%29,568
Whatcom83,29560.42%49,21335.70%5,3603.89%34,08224.72%137,868
Whitman10,48052.33%8,69943.44%8484.23%1,7818.89%20,027
Yakima36,70641.36%49,36855.63%2,6773.02%-12,662-14.27%88,751
Totals2,245,84957.23%1,530,92339.01%147,4713.76%714,92618.22%3,924,243
Swing by county
Legend
  •   Democratic — +2.5-5%
  •   Democratic — +0-2.5%
  •   Republican — +0-2.5%
  •   Republican — +2.5-5%
  •   Republican — +5-7.5%
  •   Republican — +7.5-10%
Trend relative to the state by county
Legend
  •   Democratic — +5-7.5%
  •   Democratic — +2.5-5%
  •   Democratic — +0-2.5%
  •   Republican — +0-2.5%
  •   Republican — +2.5-5%
  •   Republican — +5-7.5%

By congressional district

[edit]

Harris won seven of ten congressional districts. Trump won three congressional districts, including one that elected a Democrat.[40]

DistrictHarrisTrumpRepresentative
1st62.15%33.68%Suzan DelBene
2nd59.84%36.33%Rick Larsen
3rd46.67%49.95%Marie Gluesenkamp Perez
4th38.11%58.66%Dan Newhouse
5th42.85%53.56%Cathy McMorris Rodgers (118th Congress)
Michael Baumgartner (119th Congress)
6th57.72%38.56%Derek Kilmer (118th Congress)
Emily Randall (119th Congress)
7th85.32%10.78%Pramila Jayapal
8th50.93%45.20%Kim Schrier
9th68.44%27.49%Adam Smith
10th57.04%39.14%Marilyn Strickland

Analysis

[edit]

Washington was the sixth-most Democratic state in the election behindVermont,Maryland,Massachusetts,Hawaii, andCalifornia; the latter five states voted for Harris by more than 20%. This was the first election since1956 in which Washington voted to the left ofNew York (which had the largest swing to the right in this election) andRhode Island.

Washington was one of eleven states where Trump received fewer votesin this election than in2020.[i] The reason for all of their rightward swings is that Harris lost an even greater number of votes compared to Biden's 2020 run. With this election,Clallam County ended its 40-yearbellwether streak, voting for the losing presidential candidate for the first time since1976; Trump thus became the first Republican to win the White House without carrying this county sinceRichard Nixon in1968. This was also the first time since1896 that an unsuccessful Democrat won a majority of the county's vote. It had previously been the only county in the nation to vote for every presidential election winner since1980.[41]

See also

[edit]

Notes

[edit]
  1. ^abcdefghijKey:
    A – all adults
    RV – registered voters
    LV – likely voters
    V – unclear
  2. ^"Another candidate" with 2%
  3. ^"Someone else" with 9%
  4. ^"Someone else" with 13%
  5. ^"Someone else" with 22%; "I would not vote" with 1%
  6. ^"Someone else" with 11%; "I would not vote" with 2%
  7. ^ab"Someone else" with 10%
  8. ^"Someone else" with 12%
  9. ^The other states wereAlaska,Arkansas,Hawaii,Indiana,Kansas,Louisiana,Mississippi,Oregon,West Virginia, andWyoming.

Partisan clients

  1. ^abcdefgThis poll was sponsored by theNorthwest Progressive Institute
  2. ^Poll sponsored byKOMO-TV
  3. ^abcPoll sponsored byThe Seattle Times,KING-TV, &University of Washington Information School
  4. ^abcdePoll sponsored byCrosscut.com
  5. ^abPoll sponsored by The Independent Center
  6. ^abcPoll conducted forKennedy's campaign
  7. ^Poll sponsored by Concerned Taxpayers of Washington State PAC

References

[edit]
  1. ^"November 5, 2024 General Election - Voter Turnout".
  2. ^Wang, Hansi; Jin, Connie; Levitt, Zach (April 26, 2021)."Here's How The 1st 2020 Census Results Changed Electoral College, House Seats".NPR.Archived from the original on August 19, 2021. RetrievedAugust 20, 2021.
  3. ^"Washington Presidential Primary". The AP. RetrievedApril 5, 2024.
  4. ^"March 12, 2024 Presidential Primary Results". Washington Secretary of State. March 23, 2024. RetrievedApril 5, 2024.
  5. ^abOrtiz, Erik (October 28, 2024)."Ballot drop boxes set on fire in Portland, Ore., and Vancouver, Wash".NBC News. RetrievedOctober 28, 2024.
  6. ^"2024 CPR Electoral College Ratings".cookpolitical.com.Cook Political Report. December 19, 2023. RetrievedJanuary 11, 2024.
  7. ^"Presidential Ratings".insideelections.com.Inside Elections. April 26, 2023. RetrievedJanuary 11, 2024.
  8. ^"2024 Electoral College ratings".centerforpolitics.org.University of Virginia Center for Politics. June 29, 2023. RetrievedJanuary 11, 2024.
  9. ^"2024 presidential predictions".elections2024.thehill.com/.The Hill. December 14, 2023. RetrievedJanuary 11, 2024.
  10. ^"2024 Presidential Forecast".projects.cnalysis.com/.CNalysis. December 30, 2023. RetrievedJanuary 11, 2024.
  11. ^"Electoral College map 2024: Road to 270".CNN. RetrievedJanuary 14, 2024.
  12. ^"Trump v Biden: The Economist's presidential election prediction model".The Economist. RetrievedAugust 29, 2024.
  13. ^Morris, G. Elliott (June 11, 2024)."2024 Election Forecast".FiveThirtyEight. RetrievedSeptember 13, 2024.
  14. ^"2024 RCP Electoral College Map".RealClearPolitics. June 26, 2024. RetrievedJune 26, 2024.
  15. ^"Presidential Election Preview 2024".NBC News.
  16. ^Canseco, Mario (November 4, 2024)."Battleground States Remain Closely Contested in U.S. Race".Research Co.
  17. ^Allis, Victor (October 30, 2024)."Harris Has Large Lead in Washington".ActiVote.
  18. ^Villeneuve, Andrew (October 17, 2024)."Kamala Harris has a fifteen point lead over Donald Trump in Washington and a twelve point lead in Oregon, NPI polls find".Northwest Progressive Institute.
  19. ^"KOMO-S360 STATEWIDE POLL"(PDF).Strategies 360. October 24, 2024.
  20. ^"Evergreen State's 12 Electoral Votes Remain Ever-Blue for 10th Consecutive Election, With Harris Safely Atop Trump, More Trusted on Top Issues".SurveyUSA. October 15, 2024. RetrievedOctober 16, 2024.
  21. ^Allis, Victor (October 14, 2024)."Harris Has Large Lead in Washington".ActiVote. RetrievedOctober 14, 2024.
  22. ^Sowersby, Shauna (October 17, 2024)."WA voters are sticking with party lines and paying attention".Crosscut.
  23. ^"2024 Election: 2 months out - An independent nonpartisan analysis of public opinion trends in Washington and the Pacific Northwest"(PDF).Crosscut. September 13, 2024.
  24. ^abcde"DHM Panel Washington July 2024 Toplines"(PDF).DHM Research. July 22, 2024.
  25. ^ab"Washington State Voters Ready to Give Joe Biden a Second Term by 14-Point Margin; Should Biden Not Run, Kamala Harris Wins WA By 15 Points".SurveyUSA. July 15, 2024.
  26. ^Villeneuve, Andrew (July 26, 2024)."Vice President Kamala Harris enjoys a fourteen point lead over Donald Trump among likely Washington Top Two voters".Northwest Progressive Institute.
  27. ^Villeneuve, Andrew (May 20, 2024)."Joe Biden's 2024 lead over Donald Trump in Washington State remains at sixteen points, with slightly fewer voters undecided".Northwest Progressive Institute.
  28. ^ab"Independent Center 2024 Pacific State Survey Toplines"(PDF).The Independent Center. April 23, 2024. Archived fromthe original(PDF) on May 10, 2024.
  29. ^abc"Biden Is the Real Spoiler, Kennedy Only Candidate Who Can Beat Trump".Kennedy24. May 1, 2024.
  30. ^"Concerned Tax Payers of WA State March 2024 WA State Survey Deck".Google Docs. March 21, 2024.
  31. ^Villeneuve, Andrew (February 17, 2024)."Joe Biden's 2024 lead over Donald Trump in Washington State rebounds to sixteen points".Northwest Progressive Institute.
  32. ^Villeneuve, Andrew (November 17, 2023)."Joe Biden has a fourteen point, eleven month out lead over Donald Trump in Washington".Northwest Progressive Institute.
  33. ^ab"Crosscut/Elway Poll - 2024 National Election Preview"(PDF).Crosscut. November 23, 2023.
  34. ^abVilleneuve, Andrew (June 12, 2023)."Joe Biden leads Donald Trump in Washington by seventeen points, Ron DeSantis by twelve".Northwest Progressive Institute.
  35. ^"Washington 2022: Democratic Sen. Patty Murray Holds 9-Point Lead in Re-election Bid Against Republican Tiffany Smiley".Emerson College Polling. October 4, 2024.
  36. ^Jordan, John; Morris, Dick (August 17, 2022)."Washington U.S. Senate Survey"(PDF).McLaughlin & Associates.
  37. ^Blankinship, Donna Gordon (May 24, 2024)."Poll: Almost half of WA voters are undecided on governor's race".Crosscut.
  38. ^Hobbs, Steve (December 4, 2024)."Canvass of the Returns of the General Election Held on November 5, 2024"(PDF).Secretary of State of Washington.Archived(PDF) from the original on July 4, 2025. RetrievedJuly 14, 2025.
  39. ^Hobbs, Steve (November 5, 2024)."President/Vice President - County Results".Secretary of State of Washington.Archived from the original on May 29, 2025. RetrievedJuly 14, 2025.
  40. ^"2024Gen Results by Congressional District"(PDF).sos.wa.gov.Archived(PDF) from the original on December 28, 2024.
  41. ^Smith, Helen (November 6, 2024)."Clallam County voted for losing presidential candidate for first time in 40 years".KING-TV.
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