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2024 United States presidential election in Virginia

From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

Main article:2024 United States presidential election
2024 United States presidential election in Virginia

← 2020
November 5, 2024
2028 →
Turnout70.48% (Decrease4.6pp)
 
NomineeKamala HarrisDonald Trump
PartyDemocraticRepublican
Home stateCaliforniaFlorida
Running mateTim WalzJD Vance
Electoral vote130
Popular vote2,335,3952,075,085
Percentage51.83%46.05%

County and independent city results
Congressional district results
Precinct results

Harris

  40–50%
  50–60%
  60–70%
  70–80%
  80–90%
  90–100%

Trump

  40–50%
  50–60%
  60–70%
  70–80%
  80–90%
  90–100%

Tie/No data

  
  


President before election

Joe Biden
Democratic

Elected President

Donald Trump
Republican

Elections in Virginia
U.S. President
Presidential primaries
U.S. Senate
U.S. House
Governor
Lieutenant Governor
Attorney General
Senate
House of Delegates
State elections
Commonwealth's Attorney

The2024 United States presidential election in Virginia took place on Tuesday, November 5, 2024, as part of the2024 United States presidential election in which all 50 states plus theDistrict of Columbia participated.Virginia voters chose electors to represent them in theElectoral College via a popular vote. The state of Virginia has 13 electoral votes in the Electoral College, followingreapportionment due to the2020 United States census in which the state neither gained nor lost a seat.

Before the election, most news organizations considered Virginia a likely win for Harris. This was the first presidential election in which both major party candidates received more than 2 million votes in Virginia. On election day, Harris won Virginia with 51.83% of the vote, carrying the state by a margin of 5.78%, similar to the2016 results, albeit slightly wider. In 2016, Virginia U.S. SenatorTim Kaine was the Democratic vice presidential nominee. Kaine also won by a slightly larger 9 percentage point margin in the concurrent2024 U.S. Senate election in Virginia.

Harris became the first Democratic nominee to win Virginia while losing the nationwide popular vote since1924, a century earlier. Meanwhile, neighboringWest Virginia gave Trump 70% of the vote, with the two states differing by 48 percentage points in margin. Trump became the first president to win two terms without ever carrying Virginia sinceBill Clinton in1992 and1996, and the first Republican to do so sinceWilliam McKinley in1896 and1900.

Virginia is the only formerConfederate state Trump never won in any of his three runs. Although Virginia swung rightward in 2024, it trended leftward and voted over 7 percentage points to the left of the nation, compared to 5 percentage points in2020, and 3 percentage points in2016. This was also the first time a Democratic nominee who lost the popular vote won anabsolute majority of the vote in Virginia since 1924.[1]

This election confirmed Virginia's status as ablue state. Virginia voted for the loser of the popular vote for the first time since2000, and the loser of both the electoral vote and popular vote since 1996. This was similar to howFlorida in 2024 voted for Trump by over 13%, afterFlorida in 2020 backed Trump despite him losing both the electoral vote and popular vote.[a]

Primary elections

[edit]

Democratic primary

[edit]
Main article:2024 Virginia Democratic presidential primary

The Virginia Democratic primary was held onSuper Tuesday, March 5, 2024. Incumbent presidentJoe Biden won the state and all 11 of itscongressional districts, securing 99 pledged delegates. ActivistMarianne Williamson garnered 8% of the vote total, which was her second-best performance on Super Tuesday afterOklahoma.

Popular vote share by county and independent city
  Biden
  •   70–80%
  •   80–90%
  •   >90%
Virginia Democratic primary, March 5, 2024[2]
CandidateVotesPercentageActual delegate count
PledgedUnpledgedTotal
Joe Biden (incumbent)317,32988.51%9999
Marianne Williamson⁦28,5997.98%00
Dean Phillips⁦12,5863.51%00
Total:358,514100.00%9919118

Republican primary

[edit]
Main article:2024 Virginia Republican presidential primary

The Virginia Republican primary was held onSuper Tuesday, March 5, 2024. Former presidentDonald Trump defeated former South Carolina governorNikki Haley, attaining 42 pledged delegates to theRepublican National Convention in July. Trump performed best insouthwest Virginia, while Haley's strength lay inCharlottesville,Albemarle County, theurban areas ofRichmond and the suburbs surroundingWashington, D.C.

Popular vote share by county and independent city
  Trump
  •   40–50%
  •   50–60%
  •   60–70%
  •   70–80%
  •   80–90%
  •   >90%
  Haley
  •   50–60%
  •   60–70%
  •   70–80%
Virginia Republican primary, March 5, 2024[3]
CandidateVotesPercentageActual delegate count
BoundUnboundTotal
Donald Trump440,41662.99%39342
Nikki Haley244,58634.98%66
Ron DeSantis (withdrawn)7,4941.07%
Chris Christie (withdrawn)3,3840.48%
Vivek Ramaswamy (withdrawn)2,5030.36%
Ryan Binkley (withdrawn)8530.12%
Total:699,236100.00%45348


General election

[edit]

Voting law changes

[edit]

In August 2024,Virginia governorGlenn Youngkin signed an executive order removing 6,303 voters suspected of being non-citizens from Virginia's voter rolls.[4][5] In October 2024, theDepartment of Justice sued the Virginia Board of Elections and Virginia commissioner of elections over the voter purge, accusing that it violated the National Voter Registration Act.[6][7] The suit also found a number of alleged non-citizens purged were actually citizens.[7][8] District judgePatricia Tolliver Giles ruled that the removal was illegal, ordering the state to stop purging voter rolls and to restore the voter registration of more than 1,600 voters who had been removed.[9][8] The4th Circuit Court of Appeals then upheld the order.[10][11] The administration filed an emergency appeal to theSupreme Court, which sided with Virginia in a 6–3 decision, allowing the state to continue purging voter rolls.[12][11]

Predictions

[edit]
SourceRankingAs of
The Cook Political Report[13]Likely DJune 12, 2024
Inside Elections[14]Likely DApril 26, 2023
Sabato's Crystal Ball[15]Likely DAugust 27, 2024
The Economist[16]Likely DSeptember 10, 2024
CNalysis[17]Solid DSeptember 15, 2024
CNN[18]Lean DAugust 18, 2024
538[19]Likely DAugust 23, 2024
NBC News[20]Likely DOctober 6, 2024
YouGov[21]Safe DOctober 16, 2024
Split Ticket[22]Likely DNovember 1, 2024

Polling

[edit]

Kamala Harris vs. Donald Trump

Aggregate polls

Source of poll
aggregation
Dates
administered
Dates
updated
Kamala
Harris
Democratic
Donald
Trump
Republican
Undecided
[b]
Margin
270ToWin[23]October 2 - November 1, 2024November 4, 202449.8%41.0%9.2%Harris +8.8%
538[24]through November 4, 2024November 4, 202449.9%43.7%6.4%Harris +6.2%
Silver Bulletin[25]through November 3, 2024November 3, 202449.5%43.2%7.3%Harris +6.3%
The Hill/DDHQ[26]through November 4, 2024November 4, 202450.1%45.1%4.8%Harris +5.0%
Average49.8%43.3%6.9%Harris +6.5%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size[c]
Margin
of error
Kamala
Harris
Democratic
Donald
Trump
Republican
Other /
Undecided
AtlasIntel[27]November 3–4, 20242,202 (LV)± 2.0%51%46%3%
Research Co.[28]November 2–3, 2024450 (LV)± 4.6%51%45%4%
ActiVote[29]October 2–28, 2024400 (LV)± 4.9%54%46%
Rasmussen Reports (R)[30][A]October 24–25, 20241,014 (LV)± 3.0%48%46%6%[d]
CES/YouGov[31]October 1–25, 20242,027 (A)53%44%3%
2,015 (LV)53%44%3%
Quantus Insights (R)[32][B]October 22−24, 2024725 (LV)± 3.6%49%48%3%
Braun Research[33][C]October 19−23, 20241,004 (RV)± 3.5%48%42%9%
1,004 (LV)49%43%8%
Christopher Newport University[34]September 28 − October 4, 2024800 (LV)± 4.4%52%41%7%[e]
Emerson College[35][D]September 22−24, 2024860 (LV)± 3.3%52%44%4%[f]
53%[g]46%1%[f]
Morning Consult[36]September 9−18, 2024899 (LV)± 3.0%51%44%5%
Rasmussen Reports (R)[37][A]September 19−22, 20241,144 (LV)± 3.0%49%46%5%
ActiVote[38]August 19 – September 17, 2024400 (LV)± 4.9%55%45%
Research America Inc.[39][E]September 3−9, 20241,000 (A)± 3.1%45%45%10%[h]
756 (LV)± 4.1%48%46%6%[i]
Washington Post/Schar School[40]September 4–8, 20241,005 (RV)± 3.5%51%43%6%[j]
1,005 (LV)51%43%6%[j]
Morning Consult[36]August 30 – September 8, 2024873 (LV)± 3.0%52%42%6%
August 23, 2024Robert F. Kennedy Jr. suspendshis presidential campaign and endorses Donald Trump.
Quantus Insights (R)[41][B]August 20–22, 2024629 (RV)± 4.0%47%44%9%
August 19–22, 2024Democratic National Convention
Roanoke College[42]August 12–16, 2024691 (LV)± 4.5%47%44%10%[k]
August 6, 2024Kamala Harrisselects Gov.Tim Walz as her running mate.
July 21, 2024Joe Biden announceshis official withdrawal from the race; Kamala Harris declaresher candidacy for president.
July 15–19, 2024Republican National Convention
Emerson College[43]July 14–15, 20241,000 (RV)± 3.0%45%47%8%
Mainstreet Research/Florida Atlantic University[44]July 14–15, 2024301 (RV)43%44%13%[l]
265 (LV)43%47%10%[m]
July 13, 2024attempted assassination of Donald Trump
Mainstreet Research/Florida Atlantic University[44]July 12–13, 2024617 (RV)± 3.9%45%41%14%
544 (LV)46%42%12%
New York Times/Siena College[45]July 9–12, 2024661 (RV)± 4.2%48%44%8%
661 (LV)± 4.4%49%44%7%
SoCal Strategies (R)[46][F]July 6–11, 20241,000 (RV)± 2.1%47%47%6%

Kamala Harris vs. Donald Trump vs Cornel West vs. Jill Stein vs. Chase Oliver

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size[c]
Margin
of error
Kamala
Harris
Democratic
Donald
Trump
Republican
Cornel
West
Independent
Jill
Stein
Green
Chase
Oliver
Libertarian
Other /
Undecided
AtlasIntel[27]November 3–4, 20242,202 (LV)± 2.0%51%45%2%1%1%[n]
Chism Strategies[47]October 28–30, 2024520 (LV)± 4.3%45.2%44.5%1.3%0.6%8.4%[o]
Cygnal (R)[48]October 27–29, 2024400 (LV)± 4.0%50%43%1%1%0%5%[p]
Roanoke College[49]October 25–29, 2024851 (LV)± 4.6%51%41%2%1%2%3%[q]
Virginia Commonwealth University[50]September 16–25, 2024832 (A)± 4.6%43%37%3%1%16%[r]
762 (RV)47%37%2%1%13%[s]
Washington Post/Schar School[40]September 4–8, 20241,005 (RV)± 3.5%49%42%0%1%1%7%[t]
1,005 (LV)50%42%0%1%1%6%[t]
Virginia Commonwealth University[51]August 26 – September 6, 2024809 (A)± 5.0%46%36%2%1%15%[u]
749 (RV)49%36%1%1%13%[v]
Hypothetical polling with Robert F. Kennedy Jr.

Kamala Harris vs. Donald Trump vs Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Cornel West vs. Jill Stein vs. Chase Oliver

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size[c]
Margin
of error
Kamala
Harris
Democratic
Donald
Trump
Republican
Robert
Kennedy Jr
Independent
Cornel
West
Independent
Jill
Stein
Green
Chase
Oliver
Libertarian
Other /
Undecided
Research America Inc.[39][E]September 3−9, 20241,000 (A)± 3.1%44%44%2%0%0%10%[w]
756 (LV)± 4.1%47%46%2%0%0%6%[x]
Roanoke College[42]August 12–16, 2024691 (LV)± 4.5%45%42%6%2%0%2%3%[e]
July 21, 2024Joe Biden announceshis official withdrawal from the race; Kamala Harris declaresher candidacy for president.
New York Times/Siena College[45]July 9–12, 2024661 (RV)± 4.2%41%38%9%0%1%0%11%
661 (LV)± 4.4%43%39%7%0%1%0%10%

Kamala Harris vs. Donald Trump vs Robert F. Kennedy Jr.

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size[c]
Margin
of error
Kamala
Harris
Democratic
Donald
Trump
Republican
Robert
Kennedy Jr
Independent
Other /
Undecided
July 21, 2024Joe Biden announceshis official withdrawal from the race; Kamala Harris declaresher candidacy for president.
Mainstreet Research/Florida Atlantic University[44]July 14–15, 2024301 (RV)40%41%7%12%[m]
265 (LV)41%45%5%9%[y]
Mainstreet Research/Florida Atlantic University[44]July 12–13, 2024617 (RV)± 3.9%41%37%10%12%
544 (LV)± 3.9%43%38%10%9%
Hypothetical polling with Joe Biden and Donald Trump

Joe Biden vs. Donald Trump

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size[c]
Margin
of error
Joe
Biden
Democratic
Donald
Trump
Republican
Other /
Undecided
Emerson College[43]July 14–15, 20241,000 (RV)± 3.0%43%45%12%
50%[g]50%
Mainstreet Research/Florida Atlantic University[44]July 14–15, 2024301 (RV)41%44%15%[l]
265 (LV)44%44%12%[y]
Mainstreet Research/Florida Atlantic University[44]July 12–13, 2024617 (RV)± 3.9%45%41%14%
544 (LV)± 3.9%47%42%11%
New York Times/Siena College[45]July 9–12, 2024661 (RV)± 4.2%46%44%10%
661 (LV)± 4.4%48%45%7%
SoCal Strategies (R)[46][F]July 6–11, 20241,000 (RV)± 2.1%47%44%9%
Fox News[52]June 1–4, 20241,107 (RV)± 3.0%48%48%4%
Roanoke College[53]May 12–21, 2024711 (LV)± 4.2%42%42%16%
McLaughlin & Associates (R)[54][G]April 29 – May 1, 2024800 (LV)± 3.4%48%44%8%
Fabrizio Ward (R)/Impact Research (D)[55][H]April 26–28, 2024500 (RV)± 4.4%43%42%16%
John Zogby Strategies[56][I]April 13–21, 2024586 (LV)45%45%10%
Mainstreet Research/Florida Atlantic University[57]February 29 – March 3, 2024394 (RV)47%42%11%[z]
368 (LV)47%43%10%[aa]
Roanoke College[58]February 11–19, 2024705 (A)± 4.6%47%43%10%
Virginia Commonwealth University[59]December 28, 2023 – January 13, 2024812 (A)± 5.4%43%40%17%
Mason-Dixon[60]December 15–19, 2023625 (RV)± 4.0%49%43%8%
Roanoke College[61]November 12–20, 2023686 (A)± 4.3%48%44%8%
Change Research (D)/Future Majority (D)[62]September 16–19, 20231,437 (RV)47%42%11%
Research America Inc.[63][E]September 5–11, 20231,000 (A)± 3.0%37%37%26%
Roanoke College[64]August 6–15, 2023702 (A)± 4.2%51%42%17%
Virginia Commonwealth University[65]July 14–25, 2023804 (A)± 5.4%43%40%17%
Roanoke College[66]May 14–23, 2023678 (A)± 4.4%54%38%8%
Public Opinion Strategies (R)[67]May 7–9, 2023500 (LV)48%41%11%
Roanoke College[68]February 12–21, 2023590 (RV)± 4.2%47%46%6%

Joe Biden vs. Donald Trump vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Cornel West vs. Jill Stein

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size[c]
Margin
of error
Joe
Biden
Democratic
Donald
Trump
Republican
Robert
Kennedy Jr
Independent
Cornel
West
Independent
Jill
Stein
Green
Other /
Undecided
Emerson College[43]July 14–15, 20241,000 (RV)± 3.0%38%43%8%2%2%7%
New York Times/Siena College[45]July 9–12, 2024661 (RV)± 4.2%38%36%9%0%2%15%
661 (LV)± 4.4%40%38%7%0%2%13%
Virginia Commonwealth University[69]June 24 – July 3, 2024809 (A)± 4.8%36%39%9%1%2%13%[ab]
Fox News[52]June 1–4, 20241,107 (RV)± 3.0%42%41%9%2%2%4%
Roanoke College[53]May 12–21, 2024711 (LV)± 4.2%40%38%8%1%3%10%
McLaughlin & Associates (R)[54][G]April 29 – May 1, 2024800 (LV)± 3.4%40%37%8%1%2%12%

Joe Biden vs. Donald Trump vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr.

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size[c]
Margin
of error
Joe
Biden
Democratic
Donald
Trump
Republican
Robert
Kennedy Jr
Independent
Other /
Undecided
Mainstreet Research/Florida Atlantic University[44]July 14–15, 2024301 (RV)40%40%5%15%[ac]
265 (LV)43%42%4%11%[ad]
Mainstreet Research/Florida Atlantic University[44]July 12–13, 2024617 (RV)± 3.9%41%38%11%10%
544 (LV)± 3.9%42%39%10%9%
co/efficient (R)[70]June 11–12, 2024851 (LV)± 3.4%41%41%7%11%
Mason-Dixon[60]December 15–19, 2023625 (RV)± 4.0%42%36%14%8%

Joe Biden vs. Donald Trump vs. Cornel West

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size[c]
Margin
of error
Joe
Biden
Democratic
Donald
Trump
Republican
Cornel
West
Independent
Other /
Undecided
Change Research (D)/Future Majority (D)[62]September 16–19, 20231,437 (RV)40%39%7%14%
37%37%5%21%[ae]
Hypothetical polling with other candidates

Joe Biden vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr.

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size[c]
Margin
of error
Joe
Biden
Democratic
Robert F.
Kennedy Jr.
Independent
Other /
Undecided
John Zogby Strategies[56][I]April 13–21, 2024586 (LV)42%47%11%

Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Donald Trump

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size[c]
Margin
of error
Robert F.
Kennedy Jr.
Independent
Donald
Trump
Republican
Other /
Undecided
John Zogby Strategies[56][I]April 13–21, 2024586 (LV)43%41%16%

Joe Biden vs. Nikki Haley

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size[c]
Margin
of error
Joe
Biden
Democratic
Nikki
Haley
Republican
Other /
Undecided
Roanoke College[58]February 11–19, 2024705 (A)± 4.6%40%49%11%
Virginia Commonwealth University[59]December 28, 2023 – January 13, 2024812 (A)± 5.4%38%43%19%

Joe Biden vs. Ron DeSantis

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size[c]
Margin
of error
Joe
Biden
Democratic
Ron
DeSantis
Republican
Other /
Undecided
Virginia Commonwealth University[59]December 28, 2023 – January 13, 2024812 (A)± 5.4%42%39%19%
Research America Inc.[63][E]September 5–11, 20231,000 (A)± 3.0%39%30%31%
Virginia Commonwealth University[65]July 14–25, 2023804 (A)± 5.46%41%41%18%
Public Opinion Strategies (R)[67]May 7–9, 2023500 (LV)44%44%12%
Roanoke College[68]February 12–21, 2023590 (RV)± 4.2%43%48%8%

Joe Biden vs. Glenn Youngkin

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size[c]
Margin
of error
Joe
Biden
Democratic
Glenn
Youngkin
Republican
Other /
Undecided
Research America Inc.[63][E]September 5–11, 20231,000 (A)± 3.0%37%34%29%
Virginia Commonwealth University[65]July 14–25, 2023804 (A)± 5.46%37%44%19%
Roanoke College[68]February 12–21, 2023590 (RV)± 4.2%39%55%6%

Results

[edit]
State Senate district results
State House of Delegates district results
2024 United States presidential election in Virginia[71]
PartyCandidateVotes%±%
DemocraticKamala Harris
Tim Walz
2,335,39551.83−2.28
RepublicanDonald Trump
JD Vance
2,075,08546.05+2.05
GreenJill Stein
Butch Ware
34,8880.77N/A
LibertarianChase Oliver
Mike ter Maat
19,8140.44−1.01
IndependentCornel West
Melina Abdullah
8,9840.20N/A
Socialism and LiberationClaudia De la Cruz[af]
Karina Garcia
8,4100.19N/A
Write-in23,3650.52+0.08
Total votes4,505,941100.00N/A

By county and independent city

[edit]
Locality[72]Kamala Harris
Democratic
Donald Trump
Republican
Various candidates
Other parties
MarginTotal
#%#%#%#%
Accomack7,37442.93%9,65956.24%1430.83%-2,285-13.30%17,176
Albemarle44,27965.87%21,51332.00%1,4322.13%22,76633.87%67,224
Alexandria62,32677.04%16,11219.91%2,4663.05%46,21457.12%80,904
Alleghany2,11425.49%6,09373.47%861.04%-3,979-47.98%8,293
Amelia2,21427.51%5,77671.76%590.73%-3,562-44.25%8,049
Amherst5,42931.28%11,74267.65%1871.08%-6,313-36.37%17,358
Appomattox2,32424.00%7,24374.79%1181.22%-4,919-50.79%9,685
Arlington100,44677.53%25,22319.47%3,8923.00%75,22358.06%129,561
Augusta11,40325.67%32,42973.01%5851.32%-21,026-47.34%44,417
Bath58822.76%1,97676.50%190.74%-1,388-53.74%2,583
Bedford12,41424.30%38,01774.42%6501.27%-25,603-50.12%51,081
Bland52414.74%2,99884.33%330.93%-2,474-69.59%3,555
Botetourt5,91526.91%15,79671.87%2671.21%-9,881-44.96%21,978
Bristol2,23129.79%5,19769.39%620.83%-2,966-39.60%7,490
Brunswick4,18453.98%3,52345.45%440.57%6618.53%7,751
Buchanan1,35514.51%7,93985.03%430.46%-6,584-70.52%9,337
Buckingham2,98837.70%4,84761.16%901.14%-1,859-23.46%7,925
Buena Vista76726.75%2,03570.98%652.27%-1,268-44.23%2,867
Campbell7,89025.22%23,03273.62%3651.17%-15,142-48.40%31,287
Caroline7,95744.96%9,51153.74%2301.30%-1,554-8.78%17,698
Carroll2,92518.06%13,15281.19%1230.76%-10,227-63.13%16,200
Charles City2,38454.77%1,91744.04%521.19%46710.73%4,353
Charlotte2,00833.36%3,96365.83%490.81%-1,955-32.48%6,020
Charlottesville19,43582.94%3,42814.63%5712.44%16,00768.31%23,434
Chesapeake65,39951.09%60,55047.30%2,0521.60%4,8493.79%128,001
Chesterfield112,86953.59%94,03044.64%3,7291.77%18,8398.94%210,628
Clarke3,99340.58%5,64157.33%2052.08%-1,648-16.75%9,839
Colonial Heights2,98233.27%5,88365.63%991.10%-2,901-32.36%8,964
Covington81832.98%1,64266.21%200.81%-824-33.23%2,480
Craig54217.29%2,56281.72%310.99%-2,020-64.43%3,135
Culpeper10,55736.81%17,68561.67%4371.52%-7,128-24.85%28,679
Cumberland2,11738.48%3,33560.63%490.89%-1,218-22.14%5,501
Danville10,61559.93%6,89438.92%2031.15%3,72121.01%17,712
Dickenson1,31618.64%5,70180.75%430.61%-4,385-62.11%7,060
Dinwiddie5,94238.06%9,54961.17%1200.77%-3,607-23.11%15,611
Emporia1,41965.12%74434.14%160.73%67530.98%2,179
Essex2,77545.69%3,24553.42%540.89%-470-7.74%6,074
Fairfax City8,79764.84%4,30231.71%4683.45%4,49533.13%13,567
Fairfax County386,43865.56%181,89530.86%21,0943.58%204,54334.70%589,427
Falls Church7,20079.45%1,62017.88%2422.67%5,58061.58%9,062
Fauquier17,18038.38%26,82559.92%7631.70%-9,645-21.54%44,768
Floyd2,96830.71%6,55167.77%1471.52%-3,583-37.07%9,666
Fluvanna7,73146.17%8,77752.42%2351.40%-1,046-6.25%16,743
Franklin City2,35960.69%1,47637.97%521.34%88322.72%3,887
Franklin County8,32126.82%22,31971.95%3801.23%-13,998-45.13%31,020
Frederick18,33135.07%33,11763.37%8151.56%-14,786-28.29%52,263
Fredericksburg8,76064.52%4,48032.99%3382.49%4,28031.52%13,578
Galax75327.67%1,94671.52%220.81%-1,193-43.84%2,721
Giles2,06922.34%7,10276.67%920.99%-5,033-54.33%9,263
Gloucester7,03430.28%15,91868.53%2761.19%-8,884-38.25%23,228
Goochland7,87539.89%11,52158.36%3461.75%-3,646-18.47%19,742
Grayson1,50318.51%6,54480.60%720.89%-5,041-62.09%8,119
Greene4,45636.81%7,43261.39%2181.80%-2,976-24.58%12,106
Greensville2,33454.24%1,93644.99%330.77%3989.25%4,303
Halifax6,98439.08%10,74160.10%1460.82%-3,757-21.02%17,871
Hampton43,35769.01%18,38329.26%1,0831.72%24,97439.75%62,823
Hanover26,73336.42%45,56962.08%1,1021.50%-18,836-25.66%73,404
Harrisonburg10,64161.40%6,26636.15%4252.45%4,37525.24%17,332
Henrico115,04063.39%62,88234.65%3,5671.97%52,15828.74%181,489
Henry8,45733.20%16,80065.95%2170.85%-8,343-32.75%25,474
Highland41627.10%1,09571.34%241.56%-679-44.23%1,535
Hopewell5,07856.26%3,83842.52%1101.22%1,24013.74%9,026
Isle of Wight9,77939.49%14,65959.20%3241.31%-4,880-19.71%24,762
James City26,74252.16%23,57545.98%9571.87%3,1676.18%51,274
King and Queen1,53636.68%2,60862.27%441.05%-1,072-25.60%4,188
King George5,65736.65%9,50061.54%2801.81%-3,843-24.89%15,437
King William3,38829.25%8,08069.76%1150.99%-4,692-40.51%11,583
Lancaster3,35545.88%3,86652.86%921.26%-511-6.99%7,313
Lee1,39113.74%8,67485.69%570.56%-7,283-71.95%10,122
Lexington1,79562.00%1,03035.58%702.42%76526.42%2,895
Loudoun129,28056.28%92,10740.10%8,3053.62%37,17316.18%229,692
Louisa8,77936.36%15,08462.48%2811.16%-6,305-26.11%24,144
Lunenburg2,25338.28%3,59461.07%380.65%-1,341-22.79%5,885
Lynchburg16,66445.01%19,57452.87%7852.12%-2,910-7.86%37,023
Madison2,70031.84%5,67166.88%1091.29%-2,971-35.04%8,480
Manassas9,04856.20%6,67041.43%3822.37%2,37814.77%16,100
Manassas Park3,50658.46%2,31438.59%1772.95%1,19219.88%5,997
Martinsville3,43560.55%2,15537.99%831.46%1,28022.56%5,673
Mathews1,77429.84%4,10669.07%651.09%-2,332-39.23%5,945
Mecklenburg6,40439.28%9,79160.05%1090.67%-3,387-20.77%16,304
Middlesex2,47335.80%4,35763.08%771.11%-1,884-27.28%6,907
Montgomery23,81150.60%22,17947.14%1,0632.26%1,6323.47%47,053
Nelson4,29845.58%5,00453.06%1281.36%-706-7.49%9,430
New Kent5,64133.56%10,97465.29%1921.14%-5,333-31.73%16,807
Newport News48,16963.46%26,38534.76%1,3551.79%21,78428.70%75,909
Norfolk59,94169.69%24,37728.34%1,6911.97%35,56441.35%86,009
Northampton3,60352.55%3,18346.43%701.02%4206.13%6,856
Northumberland3,20238.90%4,93859.99%921.12%-1,736-21.09%8,232
Norton45827.86%1,17471.41%120.73%-716-43.55%1,644
Nottoway2,63638.38%4,16860.68%650.95%-1,532-22.30%6,869
Orange8,27437.02%13,76461.58%3151.41%-5,490-24.56%22,353
Page2,97622.46%10,12376.39%1521.15%-7,147-53.94%13,251
Patrick1,88619.41%7,74679.70%870.90%-5,860-60.29%9,719
Petersburg11,21985.52%1,70212.97%1981.51%9,51772.54%13,119
Pittsylvania9,59928.10%24,31071.17%2470.72%-14,711-43.07%34,156
Poquoson2,11926.27%5,80071.92%1461.81%-3,681-45.64%8,065
Portsmouth28,30668.45%12,37029.91%6771.64%15,93638.54%41,353
Powhatan5,73427.42%14,91871.33%2621.25%-9,184-43.91%20,914
Prince Edward4,53947.98%4,78250.55%1391.47%-243-2.57%9,460
Prince George6,84238.80%10,59060.06%2011.14%-3,748-21.26%17,633
Prince William131,12857.33%90,20339.44%7,3813.23%40,92517.89%228,712
Pulaski4,83027.22%12,73271.75%1821.03%-7,902-44.53%17,744
Radford3,23149.08%3,19748.56%1552.35%340.52%6,583
Rappahannock2,04140.30%2,94358.10%811.60%-902-17.81%5,065
Richmond City88,71081.59%17,04115.67%2,9802.74%71,66965.91%108,731
Richmond County1,43934.52%2,69764.71%320.77%-1,258-30.18%4,168
Roanoke City25,73760.82%15,78737.31%7901.87%9,95023.51%42,314
Roanoke County21,69338.03%34,45360.39%9021.58%-12,760-22.37%57,048
Rockbridge4,16032.43%8,46866.01%2001.56%-4,308-33.58%12,828
Rockingham15,03530.78%33,03367.62%7851.61%-17,998-36.84%48,853
Russell2,17216.03%11,30383.44%720.53%-9,131-67.40%13,547
Salem5,23739.65%7,76958.82%2011.52%-2,532-19.17%13,207
Scott1,60714.51%9,39284.79%780.70%-7,785-70.28%11,077
Shenandoah6,91428.23%17,21570.30%3601.47%-10,301-42.06%24,489
Smyth2,80519.39%11,52179.63%1420.98%-8,716-60.24%14,468
Southampton3,62636.79%6,13362.23%970.98%-2,507-25.44%9,856
Spotsylvania35,74744.96%42,53153.49%1,2361.55%-6,784-8.53%79,514
Stafford41,25249.38%40,59048.59%1,6972.03%6620.79%83,539
Staunton7,59255.72%5,77842.40%2561.88%1,81413.31%13,626
Suffolk30,59757.14%22,11241.30%8361.56%8,48515.85%53,545
Surry2,17649.00%2,20549.65%601.35%-29-0.65%4,441
Sussex2,53951.82%2,32247.39%390.80%2174.43%4,900
Tazewell3,03015.22%16,71183.95%1650.83%-13,681-68.73%19,906
Virginia Beach115,41250.45%109,37547.81%3,9841.74%6,0372.64%228,771
Warren6,91030.47%15,40067.90%3691.63%-8,490-37.44%22,679
Washington6,77222.94%22,45576.07%2910.99%-15,683-53.13%29,518
Waynesboro5,24046.29%5,88251.97%1971.74%-642-5.67%11,319
Westmoreland4,49142.34%6,00356.59%1131.07%-1,512-14.25%10,607
Williamsburg5,61371.10%2,11926.84%1622.05%3,49444.26%7,894
Winchester6,40753.87%5,25244.16%2351.98%1,1559.71%11,894
Wise3,03618.06%13,65581.22%1210.72%-10,619-63.16%16,812
Wythe3,07519.87%12,26779.27%1330.86%-9,192-59.40%15,475
York18,29646.03%20,72252.13%7311.84%-2,426-6.10%39,749
Totals2,335,39551.83%2,075,08546.05%95,4612.12%260,3105.78%4,505,941
Counties and independent city that flipped from Democratic to Republican
[edit]
Swing by county and independent city
Legend
  •   Democratic — +2.5-5%
  •   Democratic — +0-2.5%
  •   Republican — +0-2.5%
  •   Republican — +2.5-5%
  •   Republican — +5-7.5%
  •   Republican — +7.5-10%
  •   Republican — +10-12.5%
  •   Republican — +12.5-15%
County and independent city flips
Legend
  • Democratic

      Hold

    Republican

      Hold
      Gain from Democratic

By congressional district

[edit]

Harris won six of 11 congressional districts.[73]

DistrictHarrisTrumpRepresentative
1st46.66%51.58%Rob Wittman
2nd49.06%49.33%Jen Kiggans
3rd66.40%31.84%Bobby Scott
4th65.41%32.82%Jennifer McClellan
5th43.17%55.40%Bob Good (118th Congress)
John McGuire (119th Congress)
6th37.32%61.09%Ben Cline
7th50.29%47.44%Abigail Spanberger (118th Congress)
Eugene Vindman (119th Congress)
8th73.04%23.76%Don Beyer
9th27.47%71.38%Morgan Griffith
10th52.59%44.28%Jennifer Wexton (118th Congress)
Suhas Subramanyam (119th Congress)
11th65.18%31.18%Gerry Connolly

Analysis

[edit]

Despite losing the state, Trump made notable gains across much of the Commonwealth, particularly in theNorthern andSouthside regions of Virginia.[74] In Northern Virginia, Trump made significant gains inLoudoun County, Virginia (21% Asian and 14% Hispanic),Fairfax County, Virginia (20% Asian and 17% Hispanic), andPrince William County, Virginia (10% Asian and 25% Hispanic), which have significantAsian andHispanic populations. Northern Virginia as a whole swung 8% rightward.[75] The state also swung rightward in the concurrent2024 United States Senate election in Virginia, as DemocratTim Kaine won by a 9% margin, down from his 16% margin in2018.[76]

Trump reclaimedLynchburg City, flippedPrince Edward County, which had not voted Republican in a presidential election since2000, and also flippedSurry County, which last supported a Republican presidential candidate in1972. Harris, by contrast, did not flip any counties or independent cities in Virginia.[77]

Harris did improve slightly in someGreater Richmond counties, includingChesterfield County. Virginia was one of the few states in the country to have many counties shift leftward. Despite losingYork County (home toYorktown, Virginia), Harris won 46% of the vote in the county, the highest percentage since1964.[78]

This was the first time since2000 that Virginia voted for the popular vote loser, and the first time since1996 that Virginia backed the loser of both the electoral vote and the overall popular vote. Virginia voted over 7 percentage points to the left of the nation (5.78%+1.48%=7.26%), voting for a Democratic nominee who lost the popular vote for the first time since1924.

National trends

[edit]

Harris won the state by 5.78%, worse than Biden's 10.11% margin but slightly improved from Hillary Clinton's 5.32% margin in2016. Tim Kaine was the 2016 Democratic vice presidential nominee, likely providing a home state advantage to Clinton in 2016.

Nevertheless, Trump became the first ever Republican to win the White House without carrying the city ofVirginia Beach since it became an independent city in 1952 as well as the first to do so without carryingChesterfield orStafford Counties sinceCalvin Coolidge in1924, and the first to do so without carryingJames City County or the city ofChesapeake sinceRichard Nixon in1968. Trump became the first president to win two terms without ever carrying Virginia sinceBill Clinton in1992 and1996, and the first Republican to do so sinceWilliam McKinley in1896 and1900.

This was also the third consecutive election in which Virginia voted Democratic whileFlorida voted Republican, which had previously not occurred since1876. Trump wonFlorida in 2024 by over 13 percentage points, with Florida having backed Trump even when Trump lost both the electoral vote and popular vote in2020. While Florida shifted dramatically rightward during the Trump era, Virginia shifted dramatically leftward.

Although Harris lost bothswing states ofNorth Carolina andGeorgia, two otherSouthern states, both also trended leftward. Both swung by less than 3%, compared to the national swing of about 6%. Harris outperformed Clinton’s 2016 margins in both Southern swing states.[79] Harris won in Virginia, as over 18% of adults in Virginia have graduate degrees, perList of U.S. states and territories by educational attainment. By comparison, just 13-14% of adults in North Carolina and Georgia have graduate degrees.[80]

See also

[edit]

Notes

[edit]
  1. ^Despite both Virginia and Florida backing RepublicanGeorge W. Bush and DemocratBarack Obama twice, the two have diverged in the Trump era. For the first time since1876, Virginia has always voted Democratic and Florida has always voted Republican in the Trump era.
  2. ^Calculated by taking the difference of 100% and all other candidates combined.
  3. ^abcdefghijklmKey:
    A – all adults
    RV – registered voters
    LV – likely voters
    V – unclear
  4. ^"Other" with 4%
  5. ^ab"Someone else" with 3%
  6. ^ab"Someone else" with 1%
  7. ^abWith voters who lean towards a given candidate
  8. ^"Other candidate" with 3%; "None/Would not vote" with 2%; "Refused" with 1%
  9. ^"Other candidate" with 3%; "Refused" with 1%
  10. ^ab"Would not vote" with 1%
  11. ^"Someone else" with 8%. "Refused" and "Undecided" with 1% each
  12. ^ab"Another candidate" with 5%
  13. ^ab"Another candidate" with 4%
  14. ^"Other" with 1%
  15. ^"Someone else" with 1.6%
  16. ^Claudia De La Cruz (PSL) with 0%
  17. ^"Some other candidate" with 2%
  18. ^"Wouldn't vote" with 4%; "Refused" with 3%; "Someone else" with 1%
  19. ^"Refused" with 3%; "Wouldn't vote" with 2%; "Someone else" with 1%
  20. ^abClaudia De la Cruz (PSL) with 1%; "Would not vote" with 1%
  21. ^"Wouldn't vote" with 6%; "Refused" with 2%; "Someone else" with 1%
  22. ^"Wouldn't vote" with 3%; "Refused" with 2%; "Someone else" with 1%
  23. ^"Other candidate" with 2%; "None/Would not vote" with 2%; "Refused" with 1%
  24. ^"Other candidate" with 2%; "Refused" with 1%
  25. ^ab"Another candidate" with 3%
  26. ^"Another candidate" with 8%
  27. ^"Another candidate" with 6%
  28. ^"Undecided" with 6%; "Wouldn't vote" with 3%; "Someone else" & "Refused" with 2%
  29. ^"Another candidate" with 2%
  30. ^"Another candidate" with 1%
  31. ^Joe Manchin with 7%
  32. ^Listed on the ballot without party affiliation.
  1. ^abPoll sponsored byAmerican Thinker
  2. ^abPoll sponsored by TrendingPolitics
  3. ^Poll sponsored byThe Washington Post & theSchar School of Policy and Government
  4. ^Poll sponsored byWAVY-TV,WRIC-TV,WFXR-TV, &WDCW-TV
  5. ^abcdePoll sponsored by the Center for Leadership and Media Studies at theUniversity of Mary Washington
  6. ^abPoll sponsored by On Point Politics
  7. ^abPoll sponsored byTrump's campaign
  8. ^Poll sponsored by Virginians Against Neighborhood Slot Machines
  9. ^abcPoll conducted forKennedy's campaign

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[edit]
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  73. ^https://davesredistricting.org/maps#viewmap::bc930c25-236f-46a7-bbe9-d8d77e21d011
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  75. ^Coleman, J. Miles (November 22, 2024)."How Virginia Illustrates the 2024 Election".Sabato's Crystal Ball. RetrievedNovember 22, 2024.The localities that make up Northern Virginia—we are using a somewhat conservative definition by calling Loudoun County its western border and Prince William County its southern border—collectively swung 8 percentage points rightward.
  76. ^"2024 November General Official Results".Virginia Department of Elections. RetrievedDecember 7, 2024.
  77. ^"Exit poll results 2024".CNN. RetrievedJanuary 24, 2025.
  78. ^O'Bannon, John (October 10, 2025)."Governor".Virginia Department of Elections. RetrievedOctober 13, 2025.
  79. ^Leip, David."Dave Leip's Atlas of U.S. Presidential Elections".uselectionatlas.org. RetrievedNovember 9, 2025.
  80. ^"EDUCATIONAL ATTAINMENT". U.S. Census Bureau.Archived from the original on September 19, 2022. RetrievedSeptember 18, 2022.
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