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2024 United States presidential election in South Carolina

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Main article:2024 United States presidential election
2024 United States presidential election in South Carolina
← 2020
November 5, 2024
2028 →
Turnout76.76%Increase 4.7%
 
NomineeDonald TrumpKamala Harris
PartyRepublicanDemocratic
Home stateFloridaCalifornia
Running mateJD VanceTim Walz
Electoral vote90
Popular vote1,483,7471,028,452
Percentage58.23%40.36%
County results
Congressional district results
Precinct results

Trump

  40–50%
  50–60%
  60–70%
  70–80%
  80–90%
  90–100%

Harris

  40–50%
  50–60%
  60–70%
  70–80%
  80–90%
  90–100%

Tie/no data

  
  

President before election

Joe Biden
Democratic

Elected President

Donald Trump
Republican

Elections in South Carolina
U.S. President
Presidential primaries
U.S. Senate
U.S. House of Representatives

The2024 United States presidential election in South Carolina took place on Tuesday, November 5, 2024, as part of the2024 United States presidential election in which all 50 states plus theDistrict of Columbia participated.South Carolina voters choose electors to represent them in theElectoral College via a popular vote. The state of South Carolina has nine electoral votes in the Electoral College.[1]

Prior to the election, almost all major news organizations considered South Carolina a safered state; the state has voted Republican in every presidential election since1980, including by double-digit margins since2012.

South Carolina voted for Trump by a comfortable margin in the election, with him winning the state by 17.9%.[2] Trump received more than 1.48 million votes, which was a record for votes cast for any candidate in the history of South Carolina. This was the largest Republican win in the state since1988.

Primary elections

[edit]

Democratic primary

[edit]
Main article:2024 South Carolina Democratic presidential primary

On February 4, 2023, theDemocratic National Committee approved a new 2024 primary calendar, moving South Carolina to hold its race first on February 3, 2024.[3] Due to protests of the change, theNew Hampshire primary was scheduled for January 23, maintaining its traditional "first-in-the-nation" status. However, the primary was deemed non-binding, so the South Carolina primary was the first contest in which candidates could earn delegates.[4] President Biden won the primary in a landslide, winning all 55 of the state's unbound delegates.[5] The Democratic primary recorded low voter turnout among registered voters, with only 4% participating.[6]

The South Carolina Democratic primary was held on February 3, 2024.

Popular vote share by county
  Biden
  •   >90%
South Carolina Democratic primary, February 3, 2024[7]
CandidateVotesPercentageActual delegate count
PledgedUnpledgedTotal
Joe Biden (incumbent)126,49396.2%55TBD55
Marianne Williamson2,7322.1%0TBD0
Dean Phillips2,2471.7%00
Total:131,472100%551065

Republican primary

[edit]
Main article:2024 South Carolina Republican presidential primary

The South Carolina Republican primary was held on February 24, 2024, the fifth contest in the nationwideRepublican primaries.Nikki Haley, who served as thegovernor of South Carolina from 2011 to 2017, lost her home state to former presidentDonald Trump by 20 points. Trump won sixcongressional districts, earning a total of 47 delegates. Haley won the1st district, earning three delegates. The Republican primary recorded a voter turnout of 23% among its registered voters, passing its 2016 turnout record.[8]

Popular vote share by county
  Trump
  •   50–60%
  •   60–70%
  •   70–80%
  •   80–90%
  Haley
  •   50–60%
  •   60–70%
South Carolina Republican primary, February 24, 2024[9]
CandidateVotesPercentageActual delegate count
BoundUnboundTotal
Donald Trump452,49659.79%4747
Nikki Haley299,08439.52%33
Ron DeSantis (withdrawn)2,9530.39%
Vivek Ramaswamy (withdrawn)7260.10%
Chris Christie (withdrawn)6580.09%
Ryan Binkley5280.07%
David Stuckenberg3610.05%
Total:756,806100.00%50050
Source:[10]

General election

[edit]

Predictions

[edit]
SourceRankingAs of
Cook Political Report[11]Solid RDecember 19, 2023
Inside Elections[12]Solid RApril 26, 2023
Sabato's Crystal Ball[13]Safe RJune 29, 2023
Decision Desk HQ/The Hill[14]Safe RDecember 14, 2023
CNalysis[15]Solid RDecember 30, 2023
CNN[16]Solid RJanuary 14, 2024
The Economist[17]Safe ROctober 16, 2024
538[18]Solid ROctober 21, 2024
RCP[19]Likely RJune 26, 2024
NBC News[20]Safe ROctober 6, 2024

Polling

[edit]

Donald J. Trump vs. Kamala Harris

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size[a]		Margin
of error		Donald
Trump
Republican		Kamala
Harris
Democratic		Other /
Undecided
ActiVote[21]October 5–29, 2024400 (LV)± 4.9%58.5%41.5%–
ActiVote[22]September 9 – October 17, 2024400 (LV)± 4.9%58%42%–
Winthrop University[23]September 21–29, 20241,068 (LV)± 3.0%52%42%6%[b]

Donald J. Trump vs. Kamala Harris vs. Cornel West vs. Jill Stein vs. Chase Oliver

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size[a]		Margin
of error		Donald J.
Trump
Republican		Kamala
Harris
Democratic		Cornel
West
Independent		Jill
Stein
Green		Chase
Oliver
Libertarian		Other /
Undecided
The Citadel[24]October 17–25, 20241,241 (RV)± 3.6%53%41%0%0%0%6%
1,136 (LV)54%42%0%0%0%4%
East Carolina University[25]October 18–22, 2024950 (LV)± 3.0%55%42%––1%2%
Hypothetical polling with Donald J. Trump and Joe Biden

Donald J. Trump vs. Joe Biden

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size[a]		Margin
of error		Donald J.
Trump
Republican		Joe
Biden
Democratic		Other /
Undecided
John Zogby Strategies[26][A]April 13–21, 2024501 (LV)–52%40%8%
Emerson College[27]February 14–16, 20241,197 (RV)± 3.0%51%37%12%
The Citadel[28]February 5–11, 20241,000 (RV)± 4.1%54%35%11%
Winthrop University[29]February 2–10, 20241,717 (RV)± 2.4%50%35%15%
Mainstreet Research/Florida Atlantic University[30]February 1–8, 2024679 (RV)± 3.8%52%34%14%
643 (LV)54%36%10%
Echelon Insights[31]August 31 – September 7, 2022600 (LV)± 5.1%51%39%10%
Blueprint Polling (D)[32]August 24–25, 2022721 (LV)± 3.7%46%34%20%

Donald J. Trump vs. Joe Biden vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Jill Stein vs. Joe Manchin

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size[a]		Margin
of error		Donald J.
Trump
Republican		Joe
Biden
Democratic		Robert F.
Kennedy Jr.
Independent		Jill
Stein
Green		Joe
Manchin
Independent		Other /
Undecided
The Citadel[28]February 5–11, 20241,000 (RV)± 4.1%49%32%9%3%4%3%
Hypothetical polling with other candidates

Nikki Haley vs. Joe Biden

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size[a]		Margin
of error		Nikki
Haley
Republican		Joe
Biden
Democratic		Other /
Undecided
The Citadel[28]February 5–11, 20241,000 (RV)± 4.1%50%28%22%
Winthrop University[29]February 2–10, 20241,717 (RV)± 2.4%47%29%24%

Nikki Haley vs. Joe Biden vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Jill Stein vs. Joe Manchin

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size[a]		Margin
of error		Nikki
Haley
Republican		Joe
Biden
Democratic		Robert F.
Kennedy Jr.
Independent		Jill
Stein
Green		Joe
Manchin
Independent		Other /
Undecided
The Citadel[28]February 5–11, 20241,000 (RV)± 4.1%41%25%20%3%4%7%

Donald J. Trump vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr.

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size[a]		Margin
of error		Donald J.
Trump
Republican		Robert F.
Kennedy Jr.
Independent		Other /
Undecided
John Zogby Strategies[26][A]April 13–21, 2024501 (LV)–47%40%13%

Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Joe Biden

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size[a]		Margin
of error		Robert F.
Kennedy Jr.
Independent		Joe
Biden
Democratic		Other /
Undecided
John Zogby Strategies[26][A]April 13–21, 2024501 (LV)–50%35%15%

Ron DeSantis vs. Joe Biden

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size[a]		Margin
of error		Ron
DeSantis
Republican		Joe
Biden
Democratic		Other /
Undecided
Echelon Insights[31]August 31 – September 7, 2022600 (LV)± 5.1%42%42%16%

Ballot changes after the primaries

[edit]

On July 21, 2024, Joe Biden announced his withdrawal from the presidential race and endorsed Kamala Harris.[33][34] Harris and running mate Tim Walz replaced Biden on the South Carolina ballot.

On August 23, 2024,Robert F. Kennedy Jr., suspended his presidential campaign and endorsed Donald J. Trump.[35][36] TheAlliance Party of South Carolina removed Kennedy's name from the ballot, fielding no presidential candidate on their ticket for the year.[37]

South Carolina political parties had until September 3 to make final changes and certify their presidential and vice presidential candidates for the state ballot.[38]

Results

[edit]
2024 United States presidential election in South Carolina[39]
PartyCandidateVotes%±%
Republican1,483,74758.23%+3.12%
Democratic1,028,45240.36%−3.07%
Libertarian12,6690.50%−0.61%
Green8,1170.32%+0.05%
United Citizens6,7440.26%N/A
Constitution5,3520.21%N/A
SCWP3,0590.12%N/A
Total votes2,548,140100.00%N/A

By county

[edit]
CountyDonald J. Trump
Republican		Kamala Harris
Democratic		Various candidates
Other parties		MarginTotal
#%#%#%#%
Abbeville8,50970.63%3,39928.21%1401.16%5,11042.42%12,048
Aiken53,59262.25%31,29836.35%1,2011.40%22,29425.90%86,091
Allendale81326.89%2,16571.62%451.49%-1,352-44.73%3,023
Anderson71,82873.07%25,28125.72%1,1871.21%46,54747.35%98,296
Bamberg2,37641.73%3,24556.99%731.28%-869-15.26%5,694
Barnwell5,60557.18%4,08241.64%1161.18%1,52315.54%9,803
Beaufort59,12356.63%44,00242.15%1,2781.22%15,12114.48%104,403
Berkeley64,77757.41%46,41641.14%1,6411.45%18,36116.27%112,834
Calhoun4,47456.53%3,33942.19%1011.28%1,13514.34%7,914
Charleston99,26546.27%111,42751.94%3,8291.79%-12,162-5.67%214,521
Cherokee18,69775.27%5,93923.91%2030.82%12,75851.36%24,839
Chester9,03058.05%6,35340.84%1731.11%2,67717.21%15,556
Chesterfield11,68263.52%6,52035.45%1891.03%5,16228.07%18,391
Clarendon9,06555.55%7,06443.28%1911.17%2,00112.27%16,320
Colleton10,69658.52%7,37640.36%2041.12%3,32018.16%18,276
Darlington17,01756.10%12,97742.78%3371.12%4,04013.32%30,331
Dillon6,52655.02%5,24144.19%940.79%1,28510.83%11,861
Dorchester43,83956.37%32,48941.78%1,4361.85%11,35014.59%77,764
Edgefield9,09265.32%4,65933.47%1681.21%4,43331.85%13,919
Fairfield4,79242.73%6,27755.97%1461.30%-1,485-13.24%11,215
Florence32,61553.34%27,70645.32%8191.34%4,9098.02%61,140
Georgetown22,32659.14%14,96539.64%4631.22%7,36119.50%37,754
Greenville158,54160.19%100,07437.99%4,7911.82%58,46722.20%263,406
Greenwood19,71563.83%10,76634.85%4071.32%8,94928.98%30,888
Hampton3,80146.17%4,32852.57%1041.26%-527-6.40%8,233
Horry141,71968.81%62,32530.26%1,9100.93%79,39438.55%205,954
Jasper9,90054.32%8,14444.68%1831.00%1,7569.64%18,227
Kershaw21,28963.49%11,82635.27%4181.24%9,46328.22%33,533
Lancaster33,62361.78%20,14637.01%6581.21%13,47724.77%54,427
Laurens21,11069.87%8,76929.02%3341.11%12,34140.85%30,213
Lee3,07838.11%4,50555.78%4936.11%-1,427-17.67%8,076
Lexington96,96566.01%47,81532.55%2,1231.44%49,15033.46%146,903
Marion5,90644.11%7,31654.65%1661.24%-1,410-10.54%13,388
Marlboro4,89648.23%5,13750.60%1191.17%-241-2.37%10,152
McCormick3,56557.94%2,51340.84%751.22%1,05217.10%6,153
Newberry12,06766.56%5,84132.22%2211.22%6,22634.34%18,129
Oconee31,77275.18%9,98723.63%5051.19%21,78551.55%42,264
Orangeburg13,75037.19%22,83261.76%3881.05%-9,082-24.57%36,970
Pickens45,72875.64%13,89122.98%8321.38%31,83752.66%60,451
Richland58,01931.81%121,11066.39%3,2821.80%-63,091-34.38%182,411
Saluda6,45271.58%2,45427.22%1081.20%3,99844.36%9,014
Spartanburg103,03266.22%50,71032.59%1,8551.19%52,23233.63%155,597
Sumter21,21546.97%23,42551.86%5301.17%-2,210-4.89%45,170
Union8,10265.93%4,08433.23%1030.84%4,01832.70%12,289
Williamsburg5,52438.55%8,63460.25%1721.20%-3,110-21.70%14,330
York88,23958.80%59,60039.72%2,2201.48%28,63919.08%150,059
Totals1,483,74758.23%1,028,45240.36%35,9411.41%455,29517.87%2,548,140

Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican

[edit]
Swing by county
Legend
  •   Republican — +0–2.5%
  •   Republican — +2.5–5%
  •   Republican — +5–7.5%
  •   Republican — +7.5–10%
  •   Republican — +10–12.5%
County flips
Legend

  • Democratic

      Hold

    Republican

      Hold
      Gain from Democratic

By congressional district

[edit]

Trump won six of seven congressional districts.[40]

DistrictTrumpHarrisRepresentative
1st55.78%42.70%Nancy Mace
2nd56.23%42.28%Joe Wilson
3rd70.89%27.89%Sheri Biggs
4th60.97%37.41%William Timmons
5th60.71%37.93%Ralph Norman
6th37.77%60.63%Jim Clyburn
7th62.65%36.30%Russell Fry

Analysis

[edit]

South Carolina handed RepublicanDonald Trump a comfortable victory, doing so by a margin of 455,295 votes. Notably, Trump improved his margins in every county and gained significant support across all demographics, performing better insuburban,rural, andurban areas. He flippedJasper County in the southwest of the state, becoming the first Republican to win it sinceRichard Nixon in1972.[41]

See also

[edit]

Notes

[edit]
  1. ^abcdefghiKey:
    A – all adults
    RV – registered voters
    LV – likely voters
    V – unclear
  2. ^"Some other candidate" with 2%
  1. ^abcPoll conducted forKennedy's campaign

References

[edit]
  1. ^Wang, Hansi; Jin, Connie; Levitt, Zach (April 26, 2021)."Here's How The 1st 2020 Census Results Changed Electoral College, House Seats".NPR.Archived from the original on August 19, 2021. RetrievedAugust 20, 2021.
  2. ^"South Carolina Presidential Election Results".The New York Times. November 5, 2024.ISSN 0362-4331. RetrievedNovember 19, 2024.
  3. ^Vakil, Caroline (February 4, 2023)."DNC approves adjusted early presidential primary schedule".The Hill. RetrievedMarch 13, 2023.
  4. ^Kashinsky, Lisa (October 30, 2023)."Democrats launch write-in campaign for Biden in N.H."Politico. RetrievedOctober 30, 2023.
  5. ^Nicholas, Peter (February 3, 2024)."Biden wins South Carolina primary, NBC News projects".NBC News. RetrievedFebruary 5, 2024.
  6. ^Hubbard, Kaia (February 4, 2024)."South Carolina Democratic primary turnout for 2024 and how it compares to previous years – CBS News".www.cbsnews.com. RetrievedFebruary 7, 2024.
  7. ^"South Carolina Democratic Primary Results".New York Times. RetrievedFebruary 3, 2024.
  8. ^"Here's what voter turnout looked like for South Carolina's primary elections".South Carolina Public Radio. February 27, 2024. RetrievedSeptember 25, 2024.
  9. ^"Rhode Island Presidential Primary". The AP. April 16, 2024. RetrievedApril 18, 2024.
  10. ^"10 Republicans will be on SC's presidential primary — but not Asa Hutchinson".The Post and Courier. RetrievedDecember 6, 2023.
  11. ^"2024 CPR Electoral College Ratings".cookpolitical.com.Cook Political Report. December 19, 2023. RetrievedJanuary 11, 2024.
  12. ^"Presidential Ratings".insideelections.com.Inside Elections. April 26, 2023. RetrievedJanuary 11, 2024.
  13. ^"2024 Electoral College ratings".centerforpolitics.org.University of Virginia Center for Politics. June 29, 2023. RetrievedJanuary 11, 2024.
  14. ^"2024 presidential predictions".elections2024.thehill.com/.The Hill. December 14, 2023. RetrievedJanuary 11, 2024.
  15. ^"2024 Presidential Forecast".projects.cnalysis.com/.CNalysis. December 30, 2023. RetrievedJanuary 11, 2024.
  16. ^"Electoral College map 2024: Road to 270".CNN. RetrievedJanuary 14, 2024.
  17. ^"Trump v Biden: The Economist's presidential election prediction model".The Economist. RetrievedOctober 17, 2024.
  18. ^Morris, G. Elliott (June 11, 2024)."2024 Election Forecast".FiveThirtyEight. RetrievedOctober 24, 2024.
  19. ^"2024 RCP Electoral College Map".RealClearPolitics. June 26, 2024. RetrievedJune 26, 2024.
  20. ^"Presidential Election Preview 2024".NBC News.
  21. ^Allis, Victor (October 30, 2024)."Trump has large lead in South Carolina".ActiVote.
  22. ^Allis, Victor (October 18, 2024)."Trump has large lead in South Carolina".ActiVote. RetrievedOctober 18, 2024.
  23. ^"September 2024 Winthrop Poll".Winthrop University. RetrievedOctober 2, 2024.
  24. ^"The Citadel Poll"(PDF).The Citadel. October 31, 2024.
  25. ^Francia, Peter; Morris, Jonathan (October 27, 2024)."Trump Leads Harris by Thirteen Points in South Carolina".ECU Center for Survey Research.
  26. ^abc"Biden Is the Real Spoiler, Kennedy Only Candidate Who Can Beat Trump".Kennedy24. May 1, 2024.
  27. ^Mumford, Camille (February 20, 2024)."South Carolina 2024 Poll: Trump with 23-Point Lead Over Haley Ahead of GOP Primary".Emerson Polling.
  28. ^abcd"Trump Leads Haley in South Carolina, but both candidates are finding advantages in the state".The Citadel. February 16, 2024. Archived fromthe original on March 1, 2024.
  29. ^ab"February 2024 Winthrop Poll Results".Winthrop University. February 14, 2024.
  30. ^"Mainstreet Research Survey – South Carolina"(PDF).FAU Polling. February 13, 2024.
  31. ^abChavez, Krista (September 13, 2022)."New National Poll: 89% of Americans Say Congress Should Focus on Addressing Inflation, Not Breaking Up Tech".NetChoice.
  32. ^"McMaster Leads by 11 in SC Gov. Race But Poll Shows Plenty of Upside for Cunningham".Blueprint Polling. August 30, 2022. Archived fromthe original on August 31, 2022.
  33. ^"Biden drops out of 2024 race after disastrous debate inflamed age concerns. VP Harris gets his nod".AP News. July 21, 2024. RetrievedSeptember 25, 2024.
  34. ^Alvarez, Jeremy Herb, MJ Lee, Jeff Zeleny, Phil Mattingly, Arlette Saenz, Priscilla (July 21, 2024)."Inside Biden's unprecedented exit from the presidential race | CNN Politics".CNN. RetrievedSeptember 25, 2024.{{cite web}}: CS1 maint: multiple names: authors list (link)
  35. ^"RFK Jr. suspends his presidential bid and backs Donald Trump before appearing with him at his rally".AP News. August 23, 2024. RetrievedSeptember 25, 2024.
  36. ^"Robert F Kennedy Jr suspends campaign and backs Trump".www.bbc.com. August 24, 2024. RetrievedSeptember 25, 2024.
  37. ^Kenmore, Abraham (August 27, 2024)."Alliance Party removes Robert F. Kennedy Jr. from SC's ballot".SC Daily Gazette. RetrievedSeptember 25, 2024.
  38. ^Kenmore, Abraham (September 3, 2024)."SC finalizing list of presidential candidates on November ballot, sample ballots available soon".SC Daily Gazette. RetrievedSeptember 25, 2024.
  39. ^"Results".MySCVotes. RetrievedDecember 23, 2024.
  40. ^"Dra 2020".
  41. ^"South Carolina Presidential Election Results".The New York Times. November 5, 2024.ISSN 0362-4331. RetrievedNovember 12, 2024.
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