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2024 United States presidential election in New York

From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

2024 United States presidential election in New York

← 2020
November 5, 2024
2028 →
Turnout62.2% (Decrease 7.5pp)
 
NomineeKamala HarrisDonald Trump
PartyDemocraticRepublican
AllianceWorking FamiliesConservative
Home stateCaliforniaFlorida
Running mateTim WalzJD Vance
Electoral vote280
Popular vote4,619,1953,578,899
Percentage55.91%43.31%

County results
Congressional district results
Municipality results
Precinct results

Harris

  40–50%
  50–60%
  60–70%
  70–80%
  80–90%
  90–100%

Trump

  40–50%
  50–60%
  60–70%
  70–80%
  80–90%
  90–100%

Tie/No Data

  
  


President before election

Joe Biden
Democratic

Elected President

Donald Trump
Republican

Main article:2024 United States presidential election
Elections in New York
Presidential elections
Presidential primaries
U.S. Senate
U.S. House
New York gubernatorial elections
Attorney General elections
State Comptroller elections
State Senate elections
State Assembly elections
General elections
Ballot Measures
Special elections
Mayoral elections

Pre-consolidation:

Post-consolidation:

City Council elections

Pre-consolidation:

Post-consolidation:

Public Advocate elections
Comptroller elections
Borough president elections
District attorney elections
Ballot Proposals
Mayoral elections
Orange County Executive elections
County Executive elections
County Legislature elections
Mayoral elections

The2024 United States presidential election in New York was held on Tuesday, November 5, 2024, as part of the2024 United States presidential election in which all 50 states plus theDistrict of Columbia participated.New York voters chose electors to represent them in theElectoral College via a popular vote. The state of New York had 28 electoral votes in the Electoral College, followingreapportionment due to the2020 United States census in which the state lost a seat.[1]

Prior to the election, New York was considered to be a state Harris would win or a safe blue state. Although it remained comfortably Democratic, New York was the state that had the biggest Republican swing out of any state in the nation in the2024 election, with Trump greatly improving his performance by winning 43.31% of the state's vote, compared to 36.75% in the2016 election and 37.74% in2020. New York followed a trend ofblue states, such asMassachusetts,New Jersey,Illinois andCalifornia voting more Republican than in2020.[2][3]

Harris hadthe worst performance in New York City (NYC) of any Democratic nominee since1988, with Trump becoming the first Republican to win at least 30% of the vote in NYC since 1988.The Bronx andQueens (where Trump was born) swung towards Trump by more than 20 percentage points from2020, the largest county swings to Trump outside ofSouth Texas andImperial County, California.[4]

Polling had indicated a potentially closer race in New York in 2024 than in 2016 or 2020, but Democrats still consistently led by margins well outside the margin of error.[5][6] Nonetheless, Trump's performance in New York was the strongest of any Republican presidential candidate sinceVice PresidentGeorge H. W. Bush lost by just 4.1 points in the1988 election, having decreased the Democratic margin of victory by 10.57 percentage points compared to 2020.[7]

Primary elections

[edit]

Democratic primary

[edit]
Main article:2024 New York Democratic presidential primary

The 2024 New York Democratic presidential primary was held on April 2, alongside primaries inConnecticut,Rhode Island, andWisconsin.

New York Democratic primary, April 2, 2024[8]
CandidateVotesPercentageActual delegate count
PledgedUnpledgedTotal
Joe Biden (incumbent)288,13880.7%268268
Marianne Williamson15,5734.4%
Dean Phillips (withdrawn)11,3093.2%
Blank ballots41,11311.5%
Void ballots9030.3%
Total:357,036100.0%26838306

Primary polling

[edit]
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size[a]
Margin
of error
Joe
Biden
Different
Candidate
Undecided
Siena College[9]Sep 10–13, 2023804 (RV)± 4.3%54%40%6%
Siena College[10]Aug 13–16, 2023803 (RV)± 4.4%47%46%7%
Siena College[11]Jun 20–25, 2023817 (RV)± 3.9%54%40%6%
Siena College[12]May 7–11, 2023810 (RV)± 4.1%56%40%4%
Siena College[13]Mar 19–22, 2023802 (RV)± 4.6%43%51%7%

Republican primary

[edit]
Main article:2024 New York Republican presidential primary

The New York Republican primary was held on April 2, 2024, alongside theConnecticut primary.

New York Republican primary, April 2, 2024[14]
CandidateVotesPercentageActual delegate count
BoundUnboundTotal
Donald Trump132,69881.2%9191
Nikki Haley (withdrawn)21,14512.9%
Chris Christie (withdrawn)6,6794.1%
Vivek Ramaswamy (withdrawn)1,6671.0%
Blank or void ballots1,3110.8%
Total:163,500100.0%9191

General election

[edit]

Only two candidates appeared on the ballot in New York: Kamala Harris (under the Democratic andWorking Families Party tickets) and Donald Trump (under the Republican andNew York Conservative Party tickets).[15] Robert F. Kennedy Jr. did not appear on the ballot in New York[16] after Judge Christina Ryba of the 3rd New York Judicial District[17] ruled that he falsely listed his place of residence asKatonah, New York but actually lived inLos Angeles.[18]

The state authorized votes for 12write-in candidates:[19]

These electors were nominated by each party in order to vote in theElectoral College should their candidate win the state:[22]

Kamala Harris and
Tim Walz
Democratic Party
Working Families Party
Donald Trump and
JD Vance
Republican Party
Conservative Party
Kathy Hochul
Jay Jacobs
Eric Adams
Mohammed Akber Alam
Stuart Appelbaum
Byron Brown
Mario Cliento
Michelle Crentsil
Antonio Delgado
Thomas DiNapoli
Hazel Dukes
Thomas J. Garry
Vanessa Gibson
George Gresham
Carl Heastie
Letitia James
Gary LaBarbera
Carolyn Maloney
Luis Miranda
Crystal Peoples-Stokes
Christine Quinn
Katherine Sheehan
Anastasia Somoza
Andrea Stewart-Cousins
Gerard J. Sweeney
Sandra Ung
Latrice Walker
Randi Weingarten
Edward F. Cox
William Barclay
Bruce Blakeman
Joe Borelli
Karl Brabenec
John Burnett
Joe Cairo
Andrea Catsimatidis
Benjamin Federman
Jesse Garcia
Mark Heberling
Michael Kracker
Michael McCormack
Steven McLaughlin
Tim McNulty
Anthony Nunziato
Rob Ortt
Patrick Reilly
Michael Rendino
Jennifer Rich
Sylvia Rowan
Christopher Tague
Trish Turner
Joseph Whalen
Lee Zeldin
Ralph Lorigo
Donald Mazzullo
Michael Torres

Predictions

[edit]
SourceRankingAs of
Cook Political Report[23]Solid DDecember 19, 2023
Inside Elections[24]Solid DApril 26, 2023
Sabato's Crystal Ball[25]Safe DJune 29, 2023
Decision Desk HQ/The Hill[26]Safe DDecember 14, 2023
CNalysis[27]Solid DDecember 30, 2023
CNN[28]Solid DJanuary 14, 2024
The Economist[29]Safe DJune 12, 2024
538[30]Solid DAugust 23, 2024
RCP[31]Solid DJune 26, 2024
NBC News[32]Safe DOctober 6, 2024

Polling

[edit]

Kamala Harris vs. Donald Trump

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size[a]
Margin
of error
Kamala
Harris
Democratic
Donald
Trump
Republican
Other /
Undecided
Research Co.[33]November 2–3, 2024450 (LV)± 4.6%57%41%2%
ActiVote[34]October 7–27, 2024400 (LV)± 4.9%59%41%
Siena College[35]October 13–17, 2024872 (LV)± 4.1%58%39%3%
ActiVote[36]September 4–30, 2024400 (LV)± 4.9%61%39%
Emerson College[37][A]September 23–25, 20241,000 (RV)± 3.0%54%40%6%[b]
Siena College[38]September 11–16, 20241,003 (LV)± 4.3%55%42%3%
August 23, 2024Robert F. Kennedy Jr. suspendshis presidential campaign and endorses Donald Trump.
August 22, 2024Democratic National Convention concludes
ActiVote[39]August 1–21, 2024400 (LV)± 4.9%58%42%
August 19, 2024Democratic National Convention begins
August 6, 2024Kamala Harrisselects Gov.Tim Walz as her running mate.
Siena College[40]July 28 – August 1, 20241,199 (LV)± 4.0%53%39%8%
July 21, 2024Joe Biden announceshis official withdrawal from the race; Kamala Harris declaresher candidacy for president.
SoCal Strategies (R)[41][B]July 18–19, 2024500 (LV)± 4.4%52%41%7%

Kamala Harris vs. Donald Trump vs. Cornel West vs. Jill Stein vs. Chase Oliver

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size[a]
Margin
of error
Kamala
Harris
Democratic
Donald
Trump
Republican
Cornel
West
Independent
Jill
Stein
Green
Chase
Oliver
Libertarian
Other /
Undecided
Siena College[38]September 11–16, 20241,003 (LV)± 4.3%52%40%1%2%0%5%
Hypothetical polling with Robert F. Kennedy Jr.

Kamala Harris vs. Donald Trump vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Cornel West vs. Jill Stein vs. Chase Oliver

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size[a]
Margin
of error
Kamala
Harris
Democratic
Donald
Trump
Republican
Robert F.
Kennedy Jr.
Independent
Cornel
West
Independent
Jill
Stein
Green
Chase
Oliver
Libertarian
Other /
Undecided
Siena College[35]October 13–17, 2024872 (LV)± 4.1%54%37%0%1%1%1%6%[c]
Siena College[40]July 28 – August 1, 20241,199 (LV)± 4.0%49%37%7%1%2%1%10%
Hypothetical polling with Joe Biden and Donald Trump

Joe Biden vs. Donald Trump

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size[a]
Margin
of error
Joe
Biden
Democratic
Donald
Trump
Republican
Other /
Undecided
SoCal Strategies (R)[41][B]July 18–19, 2024500 (LV)± 4.4%52%41%7%
Siena College[42]June 12–13 & 16–17, 2024805 (RV)± 4.1%47%39%14%
Emerson College[43][C]May 28–29, 20241,000 (RV)± 3.0%48%41%11%
55%[d]45%
Siena College[44]May 13–15, 20241,191 (RV)± 3.9%47%38%15%
Slingshot Strategies (D)[45]May 2–3, 20241,059 (RV)± 5.0%56%37%17%
John Zogby Strategies[46][D]April 13–21, 2024749 (LV)48%42%10%
Siena College[47]April 15–17, 2024806 (RV)± 4.1%47%37%16%
Siena College[48]February 12–14, 2024806 (RV)± 4.2%48%36%16%
Siena College[49]January 14–17, 2024807 (RV)± 4.5%46%37%17%
Siena College[50]November 12–15, 2023803 (RV)± 4.6%46%36%18%
Siena College[51]October 15–19, 20231,225 (RV)± 3.4%46%37%17%
Siena College[52]September 10–13, 2023804 (RV)± 4.3%52%31%17%
Siena College[10]August 13–16, 2023803 (RV)± 4.4%47%34%19%
Siena College[11]June 20–25, 2023817 (RV)± 3.9%50%28%21%
SurveyUSA[53][E]November 3–6, 2022918 (RV)± 4.1%46%34%20%
Emerson College[54][C]October 20–24, 20221,000 (LV)± 3.0%47%40%13%
SurveyUSA[55][F]October 14–18, 20221,018 (RV)± 4.4%42%37%21%
Emerson College[56]September 4–6, 20221,000 (LV)± 3.0%53%37%10%
SurveyUSA[57][E]August 17–21, 2022715 (LV)± 4.6%49%29%22%
McLaughlin & Associates (R)[58]August 7–9, 2022600 (LV)± 4.0%52%40%8%

Joe Biden vs. Donald Trump vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Cornel West

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size[a]
Margin
of error
Joe
Biden
Democratic
Donald
Trump
Republican
Robert F.
Kennedy Jr.
Independent
Cornel
West
Independent
Other /
Undecided
Siena College[48]February 12–14, 2024806 (RV)± 4.2%42%32%13%6%7%
Siena College[49]January 14–17, 2024807 (RV)± 4.5%41%32%13%3%11%
Siena College[50]November 12–15, 2023803 (RV)± 4.6%37%28%18%5%11%
Siena College[51]October 15–19, 20231,225 (RV)± 3.4%38%31%13%5%12%

Joe Biden vs. Donald Trump vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Cornel West vs. Jill Stein

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size[a]
Margin
of error
Joe
Biden
Democratic
Donald
Trump
Republican
Robert F.
Kennedy Jr.
Independent
Cornel
West
Independent
Jill
Stein
Green
Other /
Undecided
Emerson College[43][C]May 28–29, 20241,000 (RV)± 3.0%44%38%6%2%1%9%
Hypothetical polling with other candidates

Joe Biden vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr.

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size[a]
Margin
of error
Joe
Biden
Democratic
Robert F.
Kennedy Jr.
Independent
Other /
Undecided
John Zogby Strategies[46][D]April 13–21, 2024749 (LV)44%44%12%

Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Donald Trump

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size[a]
Margin
of error
Robert F.
Kennedy Jr.
Independent
Donald
Trump
Republican
Other /
Undecided
John Zogby Strategies[46][D]April 13–21, 2024749 (LV)45%39%16%

Results

[edit]
2024 United States presidential election in New York[59]
PartyCandidateVotes%±%
Democratic4,341,37552.54%Decrease 3.84%
Working Families277,8203.36%Decrease 1.12%
Total4,619,19555.91%Decrease 4.96%
Republican3,257,16639.42%Increase 5.12%
Conservative321,7333.89%Increase 0.45%
Total3,578,89943.31%Increase 5.57%
Write-in64,4010.78%Increase 0.74%
Total votes8,262,495100.00%N/A
Complete list of votes for all registered write-in candidates[59]
PartyCandidateVotes%±%
GreenJill Stein46,6980.57%Increase0.19%
Socialism and LiberationClaudia De la Cruz6,3270.08%N/A
LibertarianChase Oliver5,3380.06%Decrease 0.74%
IndependentCornel West4,1520.05%N/A
American SolidarityPeter Sonski1,5440.02%N/A
IndependentShiva Ayyadurai134>0.00%N/A
IndependentChris Garrity108>0.00%N/A
IndependentRaymond Anthony Scollin51>0.00%N/A
IndependentAndrew O'Donnell20>0.00%N/A
IndependentFuture Madam Potus18>0.00%N/A
IndependentGarry Hubbard6>0.00%N/A
IndependentAndre Ramon McNeil Sr5>0.00%N/A

New York City results

[edit]
2024 presidential election in New York City[60]ManhattanThe BronxBrooklynQueensStaten IslandTotal
Democratic-
Working Families
Kamala Harris533,782261,670601,265437,28269,3451,903,34468.10%
80.80%71.88%70.43%61.08%34.58%
Republican-
Conservative
Donald Trump113,92198,174233,964264,628128,151838,83830.01%
17.24%26.97%27.40%36.96%63.90%
Write-inWrite-in12,9304,21718,21514,0543,06252,7781.89%
1.96%1.15%2.17%1.96%1.52%
Total660,633364,061853,744715,964200,5582,794,960100.00%

By New York City Council district

[edit]
2024 presidential election New York City Council map

Harris won 43 of 51New York City Council districts, including one held by a Republican, while Trump won eight districts, including three held by Democrats.[61]

DistrictHarrisTrumpCity council member
1st75.5%22.3%Christopher Marte
2nd82.7%15.2%Carlina Rivera
3rd82.9%15.1%Erik Bottcher
4th76.0%21.9%Keith Powers
5th78.2%19.7%Julie Menin
6th84.3%13.8%Gale Brewer
7th84.8%13.3%Shaun Abreu
8th78.7%19.7%Diana Ayala
9th88.4%9.8%Yusef Salaam
10th74.1%24.3%Carmen De La Rosa
11th72.1%26.1%Eric Dinowitz
12th86.3%13.1%Kevin Riley
13th55.4%43.1%Kristy Marmorato
14th66.8%32.4%Pierina Sanchez
15th70.3%28.8%Oswald Feliz
16th73.3%25.9%Althea Stevens
17th74.1%25.2%Rafael Salamanca
18th73.8%24.4%Amanda Farías
19th45.6%53.2%Vickie Paladino
20th49.6%48.7%Sandra Ung
21st57.1%41.7%Francisco Moya
22nd68.2%29.2%Tiffany Cabán
23rd57.0%40.4%Linda Lee
24th50.8%46.8%James Gennaro
25th59.1%38.6%Shekar Krishnan
26th69.9%27.3%Julie Won
27th84.6%14.0%Nantasha Williams
28th76.2%22.5%Adrienne Adams
29th60.4%37.8%Lynn Schulman
30th47.2%50.9%Robert Holden
31st81.1%18.3%Selvena Brooks-Powers
32nd42.5%55.8%Joann Ariola
33rd78.2%19.5%Lincoln Restler
34th77.0%22.0%Jennifer Gutiérrez
35th86.9%10.6%Crystal Hudson
36th89.3%7.4%Chi Ossé
37th75.8%21.2%Sandy Nurse
38th59.7%37.7%Alexa Avilés
39th83.1%14.0%Shahana Hanif
40th85.1%12.3%Rita Joseph
41st90.0%8.7%Darlene Mealy
42nd87.6%11.6%Chris Banks
43rd37.6%60.5%Susan Zhuang
44th15.9%82.8%Kalman Yeger
45th76.5%21.8%Farah Louis
46th66.0%33.1%Mercedes Narcisse
47th50.2%46.9%Justin Brannan
48th26.4%72.0%Inna Vernikov
49th58.9%39.2%Kamillah Hanks
50th30.2%68.0%David Carr
51st22.3%76.6%Joe Borelli

By county

[edit]
County[62]Kamala Harris
Democratic
Donald Trump
Republican
Various candidates
Other parties
MarginTotal
#%#%#%#%
Albany92,58961.86%54,56036.45%2,5281.69%38,02925.41%149,677
Allegany5,48328.08%13,82670.80%2201.12%-8,343-42.72%19,529
Bronx261,67071.88%98,17426.97%4,2171.15%163,49644.91%364,061
Broome45,14249.59%44,76349.17%1,1291.24%3790.42%91,034
Cattaraugus11,42433.49%22,58666.22%970.29%-11,162-32.73%34,107
Cayuga15,77243.19%20,48256.09%2630.72%-4,710-12.90%36,517
Chautauqua22,08538.71%34,52860.53%4330.76%-12,443-21.82%57,046
Chemung15,57241.46%21,86158.20%1270.34%-6,289-16.74%37,560
Chenango8,17736.09%14,29463.09%1840.82%-6,117-27.00%22,655
Clinton17,47848.80%18,24750.95%920.25%-769-2.15%35,817
Columbia20,39656.82%15,16842.25%3330.93%5,22814.57%35,897
Cortland10,29046.64%11,70653.06%670.30%-1,416-6.42%22,063
Delaware9,23739.71%13,78959.28%2341.01%-4,552-19.57%23,260
Dutchess79,99452.14%71,77846.79%1,6411.07%8,2165.35%153,413
Erie248,65154.08%204,77444.54%6,3641.38%43,8779.54%459,789
Essex9,62950.06%9,53349.56%740.38%960.50%19,236
Franklin8,82145.33%10,56954.32%680.35%-1,748-8.99%19,458
Fulton7,66631.87%16,23767.51%1500.62%-8,571-35.64%24,053
Genesee9,36732.93%18,99766.79%800.28%-9,630-33.86%28,444
Greene10,43641.02%14,70257.79%3021.19%-4,266-16.77%25,440
Hamilton1,21135.21%2,22364.64%50.15%-1,012-29.43%3,439
Herkimer9,11031.57%19,55767.77%1900.66%-10,447-36.20%28,857
Jefferson16,32638.11%26,41761.66%1000.23%-10,091-23.55%42,843
Kings601,26570.43%233,96427.40%18,5152.17%367,30143.03%853,744
Lewis3,60027.62%9,35371.77%790.61%-5,753-44.15%13,032
Livingston12,14839.14%18,78060.51%1070.35%-6,632-21.37%31,035
Madison14,62943.00%19,02555.92%3651.08%-4,396-12.92%34,019
Monroe214,75758.90%145,94040.03%3,8931.07%68,81718.87%364,590
Montgomery7,35635.40%13,28663.93%1400.67%-5,930-28.53%20,782
Nassau338,42447.29%368,11751.44%9,1241.27%-29,693-4.15%715,665
New York533,78280.80%113,92117.24%12,9301.96%419,86163.56%660,633
Niagara43,43842.21%58,67857.01%8020.78%-15,240-14.80%102,918
Oneida39,41539.10%60,68760.20%7120.70%-21,272-21.10%100,814
Onondaga133,15557.91%93,91640.84%2,8711.25%39,23917.07%229,942
Ontario29,52048.91%30,22150.07%6111.02%-701-1.16%60,352
Orange80,25345.69%94,93654.05%4710.26%-14,683-8.36%175,660
Orleans5,36629.69%12,65970.05%460.26%-7,293-40.36%18,071
Oswego20,48337.82%33,54861.94%1320.24%-13,065-24.12%54,163
Otsego13,03145.58%15,25653.36%3051.06%-2,225-7.78%28,592
Putnam23,95642.77%31,55356.33%5050.90%-7,597-13.56%56,014
Queens437,28261.08%264,62836.96%14,0541.96%172,65424.12%715,964
Rensselaer39,66850.12%38,60148.78%8821.11%1,0671.35%79,151
Richmond69,34534.58%128,15163.90%3,0621.52%-58,806-29.32%200,558
Rockland65,88043.68%83,54355.39%1,4020.93%-17,663-11.71%150,825
St. Lawrence18,01040.78%25,91958.68%2390.54%-7,909-17.90%44,168
Saratoga66,32150.70%63,94048.88%5510.42%2,3811.82%130,812
Schenectady39,73354.75%31,97544.06%8641.19%7,75810.69%72,572
Schoharie5,54734.43%10,42364.69%1420.88%-4,876-30.26%16,112
Schuyler3,73639.19%5,71759.98%790.83%-1,981-20.79%9,532
Seneca6,61043.76%8,37955.47%1160.77%-1,769-11.71%15,105
Steuben15,41333.82%29,77765.34%3850.84%-14,364-31.52%45,575
Suffolk341,81244.81%417,54954.74%3,4880.45%-75,737-9.93%762,849
Sullivan14,54941.50%20,38658.14%1270.36%-5,837-16.64%35,062
Tioga9,43738.43%15,03861.23%840.34%-5,601-22.80%24,559
Tompkins34,63173.84%11,35424.21%9171.95%23,27749.63%46,902
Ulster57,97458.46%39,74340.07%1,4551.47%18,23118.39%99,172
Warren17,09947.40%18,60651.58%3701.02%-1,507-4.18%36,075
Washington11,22439.09%17,26860.13%2240.78%-6,044-21.04%28,716
Wayne17,05638.18%27,28661.09%3260.73%-10,230-22.91%44,668
Westchester287,43462.78%167,79536.65%2,6090.57%119,63926.13%457,838
Wyoming4,92925.72%14,11273.63%1250.65%-9,183-47.91%19,166
Yates4,40141.48%6,09857.48%1101.04%-1,697-16.00%10,609
Totals4,619,19555.65%3,578,89943.12%102,1171.23%1,040,29612.53%8,300,211

Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican

Swing by county
Trend relative to the state by county
Legend
  •   Democratic — +0-2.5%
  •   Republican — +0-2.5%
  •   Republican — +2.5-5%
  •   Republican — +5-7.5%
  •   Republican — +7.5-10%
  •   Republican — +10-12.5%
  •   Republican — +12.5-15%
  •   Republican — +>15%
County flips
Legend
  • Democratic

      Hold

    Republican

      Hold
      Gain from Democratic

By congressional district

[edit]

Harris won 19 of 26 congressional districts, while Trump won seven. Each candidate won a district held by the other party.[63]

DistrictHarrisTrumpRepresentative
1st44%54%Nick LaLota
2nd43%56%Andrew Garbarino
3rd47%51%Tom Suozzi
4th50%49%Laura Gillen
5th70%28%Gregory Meeks
6th52%46%Grace Meng
7th72%26%Nydia Velázquez
8th71%27%Hakeem Jeffries
9th69%29%Yvette Clarke
10th79%19%Dan Goldman
11th37%61%Nicole Malliotakis
12th81%17%Jerry Nadler
13th79%20%Adriano Espaillat
14th65%33%Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez
15th74%25%Ritchie Torres
16th66%33%
George Latimer
17th50%49%Mike Lawler
18th51%48%Pat Ryan
19th50%49%
Josh Riley
20th56%42%Paul Tonko
21st39%60%Elise Stefanik
22nd54%46%
John Mannion
23rd39%60%Nick Langworthy
24th38%61%Claudia Tenney
25th59%40%Joseph Morelle
26th59%40%Tim Kennedy

Analysis

[edit]
New Yorkers voting in a polling location near Lincoln Square

A heavily populatedMiddle Atlantic state, New York is considered ablue state, not having voted for a Republican presidential candidate since1984. New York continued that trend in 2024, but Democrats saw a huge underperformance compared to past elections. Harris had the worst performance in New York City since 1988,winning the city by just 68-30%, with Trump the first Republican to win over 30% of the vote in the city sinceGeorge H. W. Bush in 1988. (By comparison, Harris wonPhiladelphia County, Pennsylvania 79-20%.)

All counties in the state except forHamilton,Yates, andTompkins swung toward the Republicans in 2024. Trump became the first Republican to ever win the White House without winningEssex orSaratoga counties. If the five boroughs of New York City are excluded, Trump won the state with 2,740,061 votes to Harris's 2,715,851 votes, or 48.6% to 48.2%, thereby making him the first Republican to do so since 1988. Trump was the first Republican to carry Clinton County since 1992, Nassau County since 1988, and Rockland County since 2004. Tompkins County (home toCornell University) voted to the left of every county in the state except for Manhattan, itself home toColumbia University. College counties voted to the left of the most populated and least White urban counties.

Trump also made major gains in all five New York City boroughs, with particularly dramatic shifts in the Bronx andQueens, both of which moved over 20 points towards the Republicans compared to2020. In Queens (28% Hispanic and 27% Asian), Trump secured 37% of the vote, the highest share for a Republican presidential candidate sinceGeorge H. W. Bush in1988. Meanwhile, inThe Bronx (56% Hispanic), he received 27% of the vote, the strongest Republican showing in the borough sinceRonald Reagan in1984. His performance inBrooklyn (19% Hispanic and 14% Asian) was also impressive, as he won 27% of the vote, the highest for a Republican presidential candidate in the borough since 1988. Similarly, inManhattan (24% Hispanic and 13% Asian), Trump received 17%, the strongest Republican performance there in a presidential election since 1988. These shifts were driven in part by increased support among Hispanic and Asian communities. Even traditionally RepublicanStaten Island gave Trump 64% of the vote, the highest for a Republican since 1984.[64]

Trump significantly improved his support among Hispanic voters, particularly in New York. According to Fox News voter analysis, Trump won 36% of the Latino vote in the state, a major increase from the 25% he received in 2020.[65] This shift marked one of the most notable improvements for a Republican candidate among Hispanic voters in New York in recent history. This trend was not unique to New York; similar gains were observed nationwide, as Trump made inroads with Latino communities across various states, including Florida, Texas, and even traditionally Democratic strongholds like California.[66]

Trump continued to make large gains in the state's Asian communities as well. On the Assembly District level, Trump flipped seven districts within New York City, four of which have large Asian populations.[67] Areas including southern Brooklyn and northeastern Queens, which have large concentrations of Chinese-Americans had among the largest swings to Donald Trump in the city. New York’s 6th congressional district, which is 45% Asian and represented byGrace Meng, was only won by Harris by 6%.[68] This pattern was repeated across heavily Asian communities across the country.[69] Voters cited crime and the homelessness crisis in the city as primary motivators in changing their traditionally Democratic vote for Trump.

See also

[edit]

Notes

[edit]
  1. ^abcdefghiKey:
    A – all adults
    RV – registered voters
    LV – likely voters
    V – unclear
  2. ^"Someone else" with 3%
  3. ^"Someone else" with 1%
  4. ^With voters who lean towards a given candidate

Partisan clients

  1. ^Poll sponsored byWPIX-TV
  2. ^abPoll sponsored by On Point Politics
  3. ^abcPoll sponsored byNexstar Media Group
  4. ^abcPoll conducted forKennedy's campaign
  5. ^abPoll sponsored byWNYT-TV
  6. ^Poll sponsored byWHEC-TV &WNYT-TV

References

[edit]
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