 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Turnout | 66.78% (of eligible voters) ( 1.89pp) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ||||||||||||||||||||||||||
 County results Congressional district results Precinct results
| ||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Elections in New Mexico |
|---|
 |
The2024 United States presidential election in New Mexico took place on Tuesday, November 5, 2024, as part of the2024 United States presidential election in which all 50 states plus theDistrict of Columbia participated.New Mexico voters chose electors to represent them in theElectoral College via a popular vote. The state of New Mexico has five electoral votes in the Electoral College, followingreapportionment due to the2020 United States census in which the state neither gained nor lost a seat.[1]
Before PresidentJoe Bidenwithdrew, it was considered abattleground state by some.[2][3] However, after incumbent Vice PresidentKamala Harris replaced Biden as the Democratic presidential candidate, she was favored to keep New Mexico in the blue column.[4][5][6]
Although Harris carried New Mexico, her 6-point margin of victory was the worst for a Democratic presidential candidate in the state sinceJohn Kerry, who narrowly lost the state toGeorge W. Bush in2004. This is the second consecutive election where the state voted to the right of neighboringColorado, after doing so for the first time since1968 the previous cycle. This was also the second time in its history that it did not vote for the winner of the national popular vote, after1976 (in2000 and2016, it voted for the candidate who won the popular vote but not the electoral vote).
Despite Harris losing significant support amongHispanic voters, she held her own quite well in New Mexico, which hasthe highest percentage of Hispanics of any state. This was the first time that New Mexico voted for a Democrat who lost the popular vote, and the first time since statehood that any candidate won two terms to the presidency without ever carrying the state. This was also the first time ever in the state's history that a Republican presidential candidate received over 80% of the vote in any county, as Trump received 80.14% of the vote inLea County, the state's southeasternmost county.
The New Mexico Democratic primary was held on June 4, 2024, alongside primaries in theDistrict of Columbia,Montana,New Jersey, andSouth Dakota.
| Candidate | Votes | Percentage | Actual delegate count | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pledged | Unpledged | Total | |||
| Joe Biden (incumbent) | 111,049 | 83.5% | 34 | 34 | |
| Uncommitted | 12,938 | 9.7% | |||
| Marianne Williamson | 8,935 | 6.7% | |||
| Total: | 132,922 | 100.0% | 34 | 11 | 45 |
The New Mexico Republican primary was held on June 4, 2024, alongside primaries inMontana,New Jersey, andSouth Dakota.
| Candidate | Votes | Percentage | Actual delegate count | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bound | Unbound | Total | |||
| Donald Trump | 78,999 | 84.5% | 22 | 0 | 22 |
| Nikki Haley (withdrawn) | 8,054 | 8.6% | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Uncommitted | 3,130 | 3.3% | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Chris Christie (withdrawn) | 2,428 | 2.6% | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Vivek Ramaswamy (withdrawn) | 886 | 0.9% | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Total: | 93,497 | 100.00% | 22 | 0 | 22 |
The New Mexico Libertarian primary was held on June 6, 2024. 9 days after the2024 Libertarian National Convention was held.[9]
| Candidate | Votes | Percentage |
|---|---|---|
| Lars Mapstead | 432 | 56.5% |
| None of the Above | 332 | 43.5% |
| Total: | 764 | 100.0% |
| Source:[10] | ||
The following presidential candidates have received ballot access in New Mexico:[11]
| Source | Ranking | As of |
|---|---|---|
| Cook Political Report[12] | Likely D | June 12, 2024 |
| Inside Elections[13] | Solid D | April 26, 2023 |
| Sabato's Crystal Ball[14] | Likely D | June 29, 2023 |
| Decision Desk HQ/The Hill[15] | Likely D | December 14, 2023 |
| CNalysis[16] | Very Likely D | November 1, 2024 |
| CNN[17] | Lean D | January 14, 2024 |
| The Economist[18] | Likely D | August 20, 2024 |
| 538[19] | Likely D | June 11, 2024 |
| NBC News[20] | Likely D | October 6, 2024 |
| YouGov[21] | Safe D | October 16, 2024 |
| Split Ticket[22] | Likely D | November 1, 2024 |
Kamala Harris vs. Donald Trump
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size[a] | Margin of error | Kamala Harris Democratic | Donald Trump Republican | Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Victory Insights[23] | November 1–3, 2024 | 600 (LV) | – | 49.6% | 44.7% | 5.7%[b] |
| SurveyUSA[24][A] | October 28–31, 2024 | 632 (LV) | ± 5.5% | 50% | 44% | 6%[c] |
| Rasmussen Reports (R)[25][B] | October 24–26, 2024 | 749 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 49% | 44% | 7%[d] |
| Rasmussen Reports (R)[26][B] | September 19−22, 2024 | 708 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 50% | 44% | 6% |
| SurveyUSA[27] | September 12–18, 2024 | 619 (LV) | ± 5.4% | 50% | 42% | 8% |
| September 10, 2024 | Thepresidential debate between Harris and Trump hosted byABC | |||||
| August 23, 2024 | Robert F. Kennedy Jr. suspendshis presidential campaign and endorses Donald Trump. | |||||
| August 22, 2024 | Democratic National Convention concludes | |||||
| Emerson College[28] | August 20–22, 2024 | 956 (RV) | ± 3.1% | 52% | 42% | 6% |
| 54%[e] | 46% | – | ||||
| August 19, 2024 | Democratic National Convention begins | |||||
Kamala Harris vs. Donald Trump vs. Cornel West vs. Jill Stein vs. Chase Oliver
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size[a] | Margin of error | Kamala Harris Democratic | Donald Trump Republican | Cornel West Independent | Jill Stein Green | Chase Oliver Libertarian | Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Redfield & Wilton Strategies[29] | October 12–14, 2024 | 382 (LV) | – | 49% | 45% | – | 2% | 1% | 3% |
| Redfield & Wilton Strategies[30] | September 6–9, 2024 | 521 (LV) | – | 49% | 44% | – | 1% | 1% | 5% |
Kamala Harris vs. Donald Trump vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Cornel West vs. Jill Stein vs. Chase Oliver
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size[a] | Margin of error | Kamala Harris Democratic | Donald Trump Republican | Robert F. Kennedy Jr. Independent | Cornel West Independent | Jill Stein Green | Chase Oliver Libertarian | Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Emerson College[31] | August 20–22, 2024 | 956 (RV) | ± 3.1% | 51% | 40% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 6% |
| Redfield & Wilton Strategies[32] | August 12–15, 2024 | 592 (LV) | – | 47% | 41% | 6% | – | 0% | 0% | 6% |
| Redfield & Wilton Strategies[33] | July 31 – August 3, 2024 | 493 (LV) | – | 44% | 37% | 8% | – | 0% | 0% | 11% |
Kamala Harris vs. Donald Trump vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size[a] | Margin of error | Kamala Harris Democratic | Donald Trump Republican | Robert F. Kennedy Jr. Independent | Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Research & Polling Inc.[34][C] | October 10–18, 2024 | 1,024 (LV) | ± 3.1% | 50% | 41% | 3% | 6% |
| Research & Polling Inc.[35][C] | September 6–13, 2024 | 532 (LV) | ± 4.2% | 49% | 39% | 3% | 9% |
Joe Biden vs. Donald Trump
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size[a] | Margin of error | Joe Biden Democratic | Donald Trump Republican | Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1892 Polling (R)[36][D] | June 19–24, 2024 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 49% | 47% | 5% |
| Public Policy Polling (D)[37][E] | June 13–14, 2024 | 555 (V) | ± 4.2% | 48% | 41% | 11% |
| John Zogby Strategies[38][F] | April 13–21, 2024 | 505 (LV) | – | 49% | 42% | 9% |
| Public Policy Polling (D)[39][E] | August 23–24, 2023 | 767 (RV) | ± 3.5% | 49% | 41% | 10% |
| Public Opinion Strategies (R)[40] | May 6–8, 2023 | 500 (LV) | – | 49% | 38% | 13% |
| Emerson College[41] | October 25–28, 2022 | 1,000 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 48% | 38% | 14% |
| Emerson College[42] | September 8–11, 2022 | 1,000 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 47% | 41% | 12% |
Joe Biden vs. Donald Trump vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Jill Stein vs. Chase Oliver vs. Randall Terry
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size[a] | Margin of error | Joe Biden Democratic | Donald Trump Republican | Robert F. Kennedy Jr. Independent | Jill Stein Green | Chase Oliver Libertarian | Randall Terry Constitution | Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1892 Polling (R)[36][D] | June 19–24, 2024 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 43% | 42% | 8% | 3% | 2% | 1% | 3% |
Joe Biden vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size[a] | Margin of error | Joe Biden Democratic | Robert F. Kennedy Jr. Independent | Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| John Zogby Strategies[38][F] | April 13–21, 2024 | 505 (LV) | – | 41% | 46% | 13% |
Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Donald Trump
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size[a] | Margin of error | Robert F. Kennedy Jr. Independent | Donald Trump Republican | Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| John Zogby Strategies[38][F] | April 13–21, 2024 | 505 (LV) | – | 46% | 36% | 18% |
Joe Biden vs. Ron DeSantis
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size[a] | Margin of error | Joe Biden Democratic | Ron DeSantis Republican | Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling (D)[39] | August 23–24, 2023 | 767 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 48% | 43% | 9% |
| Public Opinion Strategies (R)[40] | May 6–8, 2023 | 500 (LV) | – | 45% | 43% | 12% |
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | ±% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Democratic | 478,802 | 51.85 | −2.44 | ||
| Republican | 423,391 | 45.85 | +2.35 | ||
| Independent |
| 9,553 | 1.04 | N/A | |
| Green | 4,611 | 0.50 | +0.02 | ||
| Free New Mexico | 3,745 | 0.41 | −0.95 | ||
| Socialism and Liberation | 2,442 | 0.26 | +0.08 | ||
| Liberal |
| 859 | 0.09% | N/A | |
| Total votes | 923,403 | 100.00% | N/A | ||
| Democraticwin | |||||
| County | Kamala Harris Democratic | Donald Trump Republican | Various candidates Other parties | Margin | Total | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| # | % | # | % | # | % | # | % | ||
| Bernalillo | 184,117 | 59.23% | 118,762 | 38.21% | 7,965 | 2.56% | 65,355 | 21.02% | 310,844 |
| Catron | 571 | 24.23% | 1,752 | 74.33% | 34 | 1.44% | -1,181 | -50.10% | 2,357 |
| Chaves | 5,941 | 26.76% | 15,894 | 71.59% | 365 | 1.65% | -9,953 | -44.83% | 22,200 |
| Cibola | 4,450 | 49.57% | 4,311 | 48.02% | 216 | 2.41% | 139 | 1.55% | 8,977 |
| Colfax | 2,436 | 41.91% | 3,252 | 55.94% | 125 | 2.15% | -816 | -14.03% | 5,813 |
| Curry | 4,230 | 27.79% | 10,714 | 70.38% | 279 | 1.83% | -6,484 | -42.59% | 15,223 |
| De Baca | 206 | 23.57% | 649 | 74.26% | 19 | 2.17% | -443 | -50.69% | 874 |
| Doña Ana | 45,937 | 53.79% | 37,594 | 44.02% | 1,876 | 2.19% | 8,343 | 9.77% | 85,407 |
| Eddy | 5,032 | 21.44% | 18,141 | 77.29% | 299 | 1.27% | -13,109 | -55.85% | 23,472 |
| Grant | 7,301 | 51.33% | 6,580 | 46.26% | 343 | 2.41% | 721 | 5.07% | 14,224 |
| Guadalupe | 959 | 49.48% | 945 | 48.76% | 34 | 1.76% | 14 | 0.72% | 1,938 |
| Harding | 128 | 29.70% | 297 | 68.91% | 6 | 1.39% | -169 | -39.21% | 431 |
| Hidalgo | 705 | 37.86% | 1,140 | 61.22% | 17 | 0.92% | -435 | -23.36% | 1,862 |
| Lea | 3,930 | 18.53% | 16,997 | 80.14% | 282 | 1.33% | -13,067 | -61.61% | 21,209 |
| Lincoln | 3,033 | 29.84% | 6,942 | 68.29% | 190 | 1.87% | -3,909 | -38.45% | 10,165 |
| Los Alamos | 7,726 | 63.40% | 4,047 | 33.21% | 414 | 3.39% | 3,679 | 30.19% | 12,187 |
| Luna | 3,176 | 39.42% | 4,698 | 58.32% | 182 | 2.26% | -1,522 | -18.90% | 8,056 |
| McKinley | 15,711 | 60.74% | 9,364 | 36.20% | 792 | 3.06% | 6,347 | 24.54% | 25,867 |
| Mora | 1,439 | 57.86% | 1,010 | 40.61% | 38 | 1.53% | 429 | 17.25% | 2,487 |
| Otero | 8,582 | 35.40% | 15,117 | 62.36% | 543 | 2.24% | -6,535 | -26.96% | 24,242 |
| Quay | 1,055 | 28.48% | 2,570 | 69.38% | 79 | 2.14% | -1,515 | -40.90% | 3,704 |
| Rio Arriba | 9,373 | 58.62% | 6,268 | 39.20% | 348 | 2.18% | 3,105 | 19.42% | 15,989 |
| Roosevelt | 1,820 | 27.41% | 4,687 | 70.60% | 132 | 1.99% | -2,867 | -43.19% | 6,639 |
| San Juan | 17,464 | 33.00% | 34,264 | 64.74% | 1,198 | 2.26% | -16,800 | -31.74% | 52,926 |
| San Miguel | 6,985 | 62.88% | 3,887 | 34.99% | 236 | 2.13% | 3,098 | 27.89% | 11,108 |
| Sandoval | 41,205 | 51.80% | 36,605 | 46.02% | 1,730 | 2.18% | 4,600 | 5.78% | 79,540 |
| Santa Fe | 61,405 | 73.35% | 20,457 | 24.44% | 1,857 | 2.21% | 40,948 | 48.91% | 83,719 |
| Sierra | 2,332 | 39.17% | 3,473 | 58.34% | 148 | 2.49% | -1,141 | -19.17% | 5,953 |
| Socorro | 3,384 | 46.79% | 3,651 | 50.48% | 198 | 2.73% | -267 | -3.69% | 7,233 |
| Taos | 12,038 | 72.36% | 4,139 | 24.88% | 459 | 2.76% | 7,899 | 47.48% | 16,636 |
| Torrance | 2,144 | 29.86% | 4,880 | 67.98% | 155 | 2.16% | -2,736 | -38.12% | 7,179 |
| Union | 378 | 22.70% | 1,247 | 74.89% | 40 | 2.41% | -869 | -52.19% | 1,665 |
| Valencia | 13,609 | 40.90% | 19,057 | 57.27% | 611 | 1.83% | -5,448 | -16.37% | 33,277 |
| Totals | 478,802 | 51.85% | 423,391 | 45.85% | 21,210 | 2.30% | 55,411 | 6.00% | 923,403 |
Swing by county
County flipsDemocratic Hold | Republican Hold Gain from Democratic
|
Harris won two of three congressional districts, with Trump winning the remaining one, which elected a Democrat.[44]
| District | Harris | Trump | Representative | Cook PVI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1st | 55% | 42% | Melanie Stansbury | D+7 |
| 2nd | 48% | 50% | Gabe Vasquez | EVEN |
| 3rd | 51% | 46% | Teresa Leger Fernandez | D+3 |
ASouthwestern state, New Mexico is a moderatelyblue state. The last Republican to win the state's electoral votes wasGeorge W. Bush from neighboring Texas in2004. Democrats have held all statewide offices since2019, and Democratic presidential candidates have consistently won the state starting in2008.
New Mexico voted 7.5% to the left of the nation in this election, about 1 percent more Democratic than in 2020, during which it voted 6.3% to the left of the nation. Trump flippedmajority-HispanicSocorro County, becoming the first Republican to win the county sinceGeorge H. W. Bush in1988.
This is only the second time since statehood that New Mexico voted for the popular vote loser, after1976, and the first time ever that it voted for a Democrat who lost the popular vote. Trump is the first president to win two terms without ever carrying New Mexico, since it became a state. This is the first election since 1976 that the state voted for the loser of both the popular and electoral vote. It is also the second time since statehood that it voted for a different candidate thanNevada, another Southwestern state, after 2000.
Partisan clients
.jpg)
.jpg)
