Movatterモバイル変換


[0]ホーム

URL:


Jump to content
WikipediaThe Free Encyclopedia
Search

2024 United States presidential election in New Hampshire

From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

Main article:2024 United States presidential election
2024 United States presidential election in New Hampshire

← 2020November 5, 20242028 →
Turnout76%
 
NomineeKamala HarrisDonald Trump
PartyDemocraticRepublican
Home stateCaliforniaFlorida
Running mateTim WalzJD Vance
Electoral vote40
Popular vote418,488395,523
Percentage50.65%47.87%

County results
Municipality results
Congressional district results
Precinct results

Harris

  40–50%
  50–60%
  60–70%
  70–80%
  80–90%
  90–100%

Trump

  40–50%
  50–60%
  60–70%
  70–80%
  90–100%

Tie

  40–50%
  50%


President before election

Joe Biden
Democratic

Elected President

Donald Trump
Republican

Elections in New Hampshire
Presidential elections
Presidential primaries
Democratic
1952
1956
1960
1964
1968
1972
1976
1980
1984
1988
1992
1996
2000
2004
2008
2012
2016
2020
2024
Republican
1952
1956
1960
1964
1968
1972
1976
1980
1984
1988
1992
1996
2000
2004
2008
2012
2016
2020
2024
Local
United States Senate elections
United States House elections

The2024 United States presidential election in New Hampshire took place on Tuesday, November 5, 2024, as part of the2024 United States elections in which all 50 states plus theDistrict of Columbia participated.New Hampshire voters chose electors to represent them in theElectoral College via a popular vote. The state of New Hampshire has four electoral votes in the Electoral College.

New Hampshire was considered a potentialbattleground state due to the closeness of previous elections. In recent years, the state has shown a much more pronounced Democratic lean at the federal level, as at the time of the 2024 election, New Hampshire'scongressional delegation was entirely Democratic since 2017. As such, most news organizations generally considered the state to be leaning towardKamala Harris.

However, on election night, New Hampshire was seriously contested by both candidates, and was one of the last states called in favor of Harris.[1] She won the state by about 2.8%, a significantly lower margin than Biden in2020, though moderately better than Hillary Clinton in2016. This was Harris' narrowest victory in any state.

New Hampshire had the closest presidential race out of any state in terms of the margin of raw votes, although the state closest in difference of percentage wasWisconsin.

Trump became the first Republican to win two terms in the White House without carrying New Hampshire at least once. Trump is also the first Republican president to have never won New Hampshire in any of their elections.

Primary elections

[edit]

New Hampshire has held the famous "first-in-the-nation" primary since 1920. Delegates are elected separately from a non-binding poll, which dates from 1952. Candidates qualify by presenting a check for $1000 to the Secretary of State's office by a certain date.

Primary elections for both the Democratic and Republican parties were held on January 23, 2024.[2]

Democratic primary

[edit]
Main article:2024 New Hampshire Democratic presidential primary

On February 4, 2023, theDemocratic National Committee (DNC) approved a new 2024 primary calendar, in which theSouth Carolina Democratic primary would be held first on February 3, followed byNevada and New Hampshire on February 6. New Hampshire Republican governorChris Sununu, Democratic senatorsMaggie Hassan andJeanne Shaheen, and thestate legislature vowed to continue holding the "first-in-the-nation" primary (as New Hampshire state law establishes)[3] and ultimately did set an earlier date of January 23.[2][4][5]

Showing solidarity with the DNC, Biden declined to appear on the state's primary ballot.[6] Pro-Biden New Hampshire Democrats nevertheless launched a formalwrite-in campaign for him, but none of the state's delegates to theDemocratic National Convention will still be binding.[7]

Popular vote share by county
  Biden
  •   50–60%
  •   60–70%
New Hampshire Democratic primary, January 23, 2024[8]
CandidateVotesPercentage
Joe Biden (incumbent; write-in)79,10063.8%
Dean Phillips24,37719.7%
Marianne Williamson5,0164.0%
Nikki Haley (write-in)(Republican)4,7603.8%
Donald Trump (write-in)(Republican)2,0791.7%
Derek Nadeau1,6161.3%
"Ceasefire" (write-in)[9]1,5121.2%
Vermin Supreme9120.7%
John Vail6850.6%
Robert F. Kennedy Jr. (write-in)(Independent)4390.4%
Donald Picard3710.3%
Paperboy Prince3260.3%
Paul V. LaCava1760.1%
Jason Michael Palmer1420.1%
President R. Boddie1360.1%
Mark Stewart Greenstein1330.1%
Bernie Sanders (write-in)(Independent)1250.1%
Terrisa Bukovinac101<0.1%
Gabriel Cornejo86<0.1%
Stephen P. Lyons80<0.1%
Frankie Lozada73<0.1%
Tom Koos71<0.1%
Armando "Mando" Perez-Serrato68<0.1%
Star Locke59<0.1%
Raymond Michael Moroz52<0.1%
Eban Cambridge47<0.1%
Chris Christie (write-in)(Republican)41<0.1%
Richard Rist37<0.1%
Ron DeSantis (write-in)(Republican)33<0.1%
Vivek Ramaswamy (write-in)(Republican)2<0.1%
Other write-ins, reported as "scatter".1,3411.1%
Total:123,996100.00%

No delegates were awarded from the January New Hampshire primary.

Republican primary

[edit]
Main article:2024 New Hampshire Republican presidential primary

The New Hampshire Republican primary was held on January 23, 2024, as the second contest of theRepublican primaries, held about a week after theIowa caucuses. 22 delegates to the2024 Republican National Convention were allocated to candidates who received at least 10% of the statewide vote. The primary was won byDonald Trump, who defeatedNikki Haley by eleven points.

Popular vote share by county
  Trump
  •   50–60%
  •   60–70%
  Haley
  •   50–60%
New Hampshire Republican primary, January 23, 2024[10][11]
CandidateVotesPercentageDelegate count[12]
Donald Trump176,39154.35%13
Nikki Haley140,49143.28%9
Ron DeSantis (withdrawn)2,2410.69%
Chris Christie (withdrawn)1,4930.46%
Vivek Ramaswamy (withdrawn)8330.26%
Joe Biden (write-in)(Democrat)4970.15%
Mike Pence (withdrawn)4040.12%
Ryan Binkley3150.10%
Mary Maxwell2870.09%
Robert F. Kennedy (write-in)(Independent)2050.06%
Tim Scott (withdrawn)1960.06%
Doug Burgum (withdrawn)1800.06%
Asa Hutchinson (withdrawn)1080.03%
Rachel Swift1050.03%
Scott Ayers800.02%
Dean Phillips (write-in)(Democrat)790.02%
Darius Mitchell740.02%
Glenn McPeters490.02%
"Ceasefire" (write-in)340.01%
Perry Johnson (withdrawn)260.01%
Peter Jedick250.01%
David Stuckenberg250.01%
Donald Kjornes230.01%
Scott Merrell210.01%
John Anthony Castro190.01%
Robert Carney15<0.01%
Marianne Williamson (write-in)(Democrat)14<0.01%
Hirsh Singh (withdrawn)9<0.01%
Sam Sloan7<0.01%
Vermin Supreme (write-in)(Democrat)3<0.01%
Mark Steward Greenstein (write-in)(Democrat)1<0.01%
Other write-in votes3250.10%
Total:324,575100.00%22

General election

[edit]

Predictions

[edit]
SourceRankingAs of
Cook Political Report[13]Likely DAugust 27, 2024
Inside Elections[14]Lean DMay 8, 2024
Sabato's Crystal Ball[15]Likely DAugust 20, 2024
Decision Desk HQ/The Hill[16]Likely DNovember 5, 2024
CNalysis[17]Solid DNovember 4, 2024
CNN[18]Lean DAugust 27, 2024
The Economist[19]Likely DOctober 21, 2024
538[20]Likely DSeptember 12, 2024
YouGov[21]Safe DNovember 1, 2024
Split Ticket[22]Likely DNovember 1, 2024

Polling

[edit]

Kamala Harris vs. Donald Trump

Aggregate polls

Source of poll
aggregation
Dates
administered
Dates
updated
Kamala
Harris
Democratic
Donald
Trump
Republican
Undecided
[a]
Margin
270ToWin[23]October 24 – November 3, 2024November 3, 202450.5%45.5%4.0%Harris +5.0%
538[24]through November 4, 2024November 4, 202450.3%45.4%4.3%Harris +4.9%
Silver Bulletin[25]through November 4, 2024November 4, 202450.9%46.3%2.8%Harris +4.6%
The Hill/DDHQ[26]through November 4, 2024November 4, 202453.3%42.5%4.2%Harris +10.8%
Average51.3%44.9%3.8%Harris +6.4%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size[b]
Margin
of error
Kamala
Harris
Democratic
Donald
Trump
Republican
Other /
Undecided
Dartmouth College[27]November 1–3, 2024587 (LV)± 4.0%62%34%4%
Rasmussen Reports (R)[28][A]October 24–28, 2024901 (LV)± 3.0%48%47%5%[c]
Praecones Analytica/NHJournal[29]October 24–26, 2024622 (RV)50%50%
CES/YouGov[30]October 1–25, 2024380 (A)52%45%3%
375 (LV)52%45%3%
Emerson College[31][B]October 21–23, 2024915 (LV)± 3.2%50%47%3%[d]
51%[e]47%2%[d]
Dartmouth College[32]October 5–18, 20242,211 (RV)± 2.1%59%38%3%
August 23, 2024Robert F. Kennedy Jr. suspendshis presidential campaign and endorses Donald Trump.
August 22, 2024Democratic National Convention concludes
University of New Hampshire[33]August 15–19, 20242,048 (LV)± 2.2%52%47%1%
August 19, 2024Democratic National Convention begins
August 6, 2024Kamala Harrisselects Gov.Tim Walz as her running mate.
Emerson College[34]July 26–28, 20241,000 (RV)± 3.0%50%46%4%
52%[e]48%
University of New Hampshire[35]July 23–25, 20242,875 (LV)± 1.8%53%46%1%
July 21, 2024Joe Biden announceshis official withdrawal from the race; Kamala Harris declaresher candidacy for president.
July 15–19, 2024Republican National Convention
July 13, 2024attempted assassination of Donald Trump
Trafalgar Group (R)[36]December 10–12, 20211,041 (LV)± 3.0%46%48%6%

Kamala Harris vs. Donald Trump vs. Cornel West vs. Jill Stein vs. Chase Oliver

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size[b]
Margin
of error
Kamala
Harris
Democratic
Donald
Trump
Republican
Cornel
West
Independent
Jill
Stein
Green
Chase
Oliver
Libertarian
Other /
Undecided
University of New Hampshire[37]October 29 – November 2, 20242,814 (LV)± 1.9%51%46%0%1%2%[f]
Saint Anselm College[38]October 28–29, 20242,791 (LV)± 2.6%51%46%0%0%1%2%[g]
University of Massachusetts Lowell/YouGov[39]October 10–23, 2024600 (LV)± 4.4%50%43%1%1%5%
University of Massachusetts Lowell/YouGov[40]October 2–10, 2024600 (LV)± 4.8%50%41%1%1%7%
Saint Anselm College[41]October 1–2, 20242,104 (LV)± 2.1%51%44%0%1%1%3%[g]
University of New Hampshire[42]September 12–16, 20241,695 (LV)± 2.4%54%43%0%1%2%[f]
Saint Anselm College[43]September 11–12, 20242,241 (LV)± 2.1%51%43%0%1%1%4%
Hypothetical polling with Robert F. Kennedy Jr.

Kamala Harris vs. Donald Trump vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs Cornel West vs. Jill Stein vs. Chase Oliver

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size[b]
Margin
of error
Kamala
Harris
Democratic
Donald
Trump
Republican
Robert
Kennedy Jr
Independent
Cornel
West
Independent
Jill
Stein
Green
Chase
Oliver
Libertarian
Other /
Undecided
University of New Hampshire[33]August 15–19, 20242,048 (LV)± 2.2%50%43%4%0%0%3%[f]
Emerson College[34]July 26–28, 20241,000 (RV)± 3.0%48%41%6%0%1%4%
Saint Anselm College[44]July 24–25, 20242,083 (RV)± 2.1%50%44%3%0%0%0%3%

Kamala Harris vs. Donald Trump vs Robert F. Kennedy Jr.

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size[b]
Margin
of error
Kamala
Harris
Democratic
Donald
Trump
Republican
Robert
Kennedy Jr
Independent
Other /
Undecided
University of New Hampshire[35]July 23–25, 20242,875 (LV)± 1.8%49%43%4%8%
July 21, 2024Joe Biden announceshis official withdrawal from the race; Kamala Harris declaresher candidacy for president.
Praecones Analytica/NHJournal[45]July 19–21, 2024601 (V)39%40%21%
Hypothetical polling with Joe Biden and Donald Trump

Joe Biden vs. Donald Trump

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size[b]
Margin
of error
Joe
Biden
Democratic
Donald
Trump
Republican
Other/
Undecided
University of New Hampshire[46]May 16–20, 20241,140 (LV)± 2.9%52%48%
John Zogby Strategies[47][C]April 13–21, 2024515 (LV)48%44%8%
Marist College[48]January 15–17, 20241,157 (RV)± 3.8%52%45%3%
Emerson College[49]November 10–13, 2023917 (RV)± 3.3%47%42%11%
University of New Hampshire/CNN[50]September 14–18, 20232,108 (LV)± 2.2%52%40%8%
Emerson College[51]August 9–11, 2023837 (RV)± 3.4%48%41%11%
American Pulse Research & Polling[52]July 5−11, 2023895 (LV)± 3.2%52%40%8%
Saint Anselm College[53]June 21–23, 20231,065 (RV)± 3.0%49%40%11%
Emerson College[54]March 3–5, 20231,025 (RV)± 3.0%42%38%20%[h]
co/efficient (R)[55][D]January 25–26, 20231,179 (LV)± 3.2%40%39%21%
Emerson College[56]October 30 – November 1, 2022850 (LV)± 3.3%45%41%14%
University of Massachusetts Lowell[57]October 14–25, 2022600 (LV)± 5.1%49%43%8%
Emerson College[58]October 18–19, 2022727 (LV)± 3.6%44%43%13%
Emerson College[59]September 14–15, 2022800 (LV)± 3.4%46%43%11%
University of New Hampshire[60]June 16–20, 2022845 (LV)± 3.2%50%43%8%
The Trafalgar Group (R)[36]December 10–12, 20211,041 (LV)± 3.0%46%48%6%
Saint Anselm College[61][E]May 7–10, 20211,267 (RV)± 2.8%50%43%7%

Joe Biden vs. Donald Trump vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Cornel West vs. Jill Stein

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size[b]
Margin
of error
Joe
Biden
Democratic
Donald
Trump
Republican
Robert
Kennedy Jr
Independent
Cornel
West
Independent
Jill
Stein
Green
Other /
Undecided
Saint Anselm College[62]June 28–29, 20241,746 (RV)± 2.3%42%44%4%1%1%8%
University of New Hampshire[46]May 16–20, 20241,140 (LV)± 2.9%44%41%3%1%2%9%
Suffolk University/USA Today/Boston Globe[63]January 3–7, 20241,000 (LV)± 3.1%42%34%8%1%1%14%[i]

Joe Biden vs. Donald Trump vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr.

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size[b]
Margin
of error
Joe
Biden
Democratic
Donald
Trump
Republican
Robert
Kennedy Jr
Independent
Other /
Undecided
Praecones Analytica/NHJournal[45]July 19–21, 2024601 (V)39%40%21%
Praecones Analytica/NHJournal[64]May 15–20, 2024862 (RV)± 3.3%37%37%15%11%
University of Massachusetts Lowell/YouGov[65]May 6–14, 2024600 (LV)± 5.2%42%36%11%11%
Marist College[48]January 15–17, 20241,157 (RV)± 3.8%44%41%12%3%
Saint Anselm College[66]December 18–19, 20231,711 (LV)± 3.9%49%39%8%4%

Joe Biden vs. Donald Trump vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Cornel West

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size[b]
Margin
of error
Joe
Biden
Democratic
Donald
Trump
Republican
Robert
Kennedy Jr
Independent
Cornel
West
Independent
Other /
Undecided
Emerson College[49]November 10–13, 2023917 (RV)± 3.3%40%37%8%1%14%

Joe Biden vs. Donald Trump vs. Cornel West

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size[b]
Margin
of error
Joe
Biden
Democratic
Donald
Trump
Republican
Cornel
West
Green
Other /
Undecided
Emerson College[51]August 9–11, 2023837 (RV)± 3.4%44%39%5%13%
Hypothetical polling with other candidates

Joe Biden vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr.

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size[b]
Margin
of error
Joe
Biden
Democratic
Robert F.
Kennedy Jr.
Independent
Other /
Undecided
John Zogby Strategies[47][C]April 13–21, 2024515 (LV)41%47%12%

Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Donald Trump

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size[b]
Margin
of error
Robert F.
Kennedy Jr.
Independent
Donald
Trump
Republican
Other /
Undecided
John Zogby Strategies[47][C]April 13–21, 2024515 (LV)45%40%15%

Bernie Sanders vs. Donald Trump

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size[b]
Margin
of error
Bernie
Sanders
Democratic
Donald
Trump
Republican
Other/
Undecided
Emerson College[49]November 10–13, 2023917 (RV)± 3.3%48%43%9%

Elizabeth Warren vs. Donald Trump

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size[b]
Margin
of error
Elizabeth
Warren
Democratic
Donald
Trump
Republican
Other/
Undecided
Emerson College[49]November 10–13, 2023917 (RV)± 3.3%45%43%12%

Joe Biden vs. Nikki Haley

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size[b]
Margin
of error
Joe
Biden
Democratic
Nikki
Haley
Republican
Other /
Undecided
Marist College[48]January 15–17, 20241,157 (RV)± 3.8%44%47%9%
Emerson College[49]November 10–13, 2023917 (RV)± 3.3%39%45%16%

Joe Biden vs. Ron DeSantis

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size[b]
Margin
of error
Joe
Biden
Democratic
Ron
DeSantis
Republican
Other /
Undecided
Marist College[48]January 15–17, 20241,157 (RV)± 3.8%51%42%7%
Emerson College[49]November 10–13, 2023917 (RV)± 3.3%46%38%16%
University of New Hampshire/CNN[50]September 14–18, 20232,108 (LV)± 2.2%50%33%17%[j]
Saint Anselm College[53]June 21–23, 20231,065 (RV)± 3.0%49%40%11%[k]
Emerson College[54]March 3–5, 20231,025 (RV)± 3.0%42%37%7%[l]
University of New Hampshire[60]June 16–20, 2022845 (LV)± 3.2%46%47%7%

Joe Biden vs. Vivek Ramaswamy

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size[b]
Margin
of error
Joe
Biden
Democratic
Vivek
Ramaswamy
Republican
Other/
Undecided
University of New Hampshire/CNN[50]September 14–18, 20232,018 (LV)± 2.2%49%20%31%[m]

Joe Biden vs. Tim Scott

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size[b]
Margin
of error
Joe
Biden
Democratic
Tim
Scott
Republican
Other/
Undecided
University of New Hampshire/CNN[50]September 14–18, 20232,018 (LV)± 2.2%47%34%19%[n]
American Pulse Research & Polling[52]July 5−11, 2023895 (LV)± 3.2%46%41%13%

Joe Biden vs. Chris Christie

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size[b]
Margin
of error
Joe
Biden
Democratic
Chris
Christie
Republican
Other/
Undecided
University of New Hampshire/CNN[50]September 14–18, 20232,018 (LV)± 2.2%44%20%36%[o]

Joe Biden vs. Mike Pence

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size[b]
Margin
of error
Joe
Biden
Democratic
Mike
Pence
Republican
Other/
Undecided
University of New Hampshire/CNN[50]September 14–18, 20232,018 (LV)± 2.2%49%20%31%[p]

Joe Biden vs. Chris Sununu

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size[b]
Margin
of error
Joe
Biden
Democratic
Chris
Sununu
Republican
Other/
Undecided
Emerson College[54]March 3–5, 20231,025 (RV)± 3.0%36%44%6%[l]
co/efficient (R)[55]January 25–26, 20231,179 (LV)± 3.15%36%48%16%
Praecones Analytica/NHJournal[67]April 14–16, 2022503 (RV)± 4.6%36%53%12%

Results

[edit]
2024 United States presidential election in New Hampshire[68]
PartyCandidateVotes%±%
Democratic418,48850.65%−2.13%
Republican395,52347.87%+2.45%
Libertarian4,4250.54%−1.10%
Green3,6800.45%+0.42%
Write-in4,0730.49%+0.37%
Total votes826,189100.00%N/A

By county

[edit]
CountyKamala Harris
Democratic
Donald Trump
Republican
Various candidates
Other parties
MarginTotal
#%#%#%#%
Belknap17,46942.95%22,76555.97%4421.09%-5,296-13.02%40,676
Carroll16,82248.54%17,42650.28%4101.18%-604-1.74%34,658
Cheshire24,57954.15%20,08344.25%7271.60%4,4969.90%45,389
Coos7,36742.53%9,73456.19%2211.28%-2,367-13.66%17,322
Grafton32,99359.03%21,90939.20%9931.78%11,08419.83%55,895
Hillsborough118,77650.66%112,05747.80%3,6071.54%6,7192.86%234,440
Merrimack48,18151.82%43,36446.64%1,4331.54%4,8175.18%92,978
Rockingham97,61148.10%102,53950.53%2,7721.37%-4,928-2.43%202,922
Strafford42,37355.25%33,16243.24%1,1531.50%9,21112.01%76,688
Sullivan12,31748.84%12,48449.50%4201.67%-167-0.66%25,221
Totals418,48850.65%395,52347.87%12,1781.47%22,9652.78%826,189

Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican

[edit]
Swing by county
Legend
  •   Republican — +0-2.5%
  •   Republican — +2.5-5%
  •   Republican — +5-7.5%
  •   Republican — +7.5-10%
County flips
Legend
  • Democratic

      Hold

    Republican

      Hold
      Gain from Democratic

By congressional district

[edit]

Harris won both congressional districts.[70]

DistrictHarrisTrumpRepresentative
1st50%48%Chris Pappas
2nd51%47%Maggie Goodlander

Analysis

[edit]

A ruralNew England state with alibertarian streak dominated by moderate voters, New Hampshire had backed Republicans in most presidential elections since the party's formation in 1854 up until1988, except forWoodrow Wilson in1912 and1916;Franklin D. Roosevelt in1936,1940 and1944; andLyndon B. Johnson in1964. Since the early1990s, however, the state has begun to lean toward the Democrats at the federal level, with Democrats carrying the state by single digits in every presidential election since1992 with the exception ofGeorge W. Bush's narrow victory in2000.

A study by the Center for Election Innovation & Research in July 2024 found that New Hampshire is one of only three remaining states (along with Mississippi and Alabama) to offer no early in-person voting option for the 2024 general election. The state also requires an eligible reason to vote by mail.[71] By tradition, since1960, all eligible voters ofDixville Notch, New Hampshire cast their votes at midnight on Election Day.

Harris suffered a setback, earning 2.35% of the vote less than Biden did in 2020. She ceded ground in every county across the state, while Trump flipped three counties:Carroll,Rockingham andSullivan.[72] He nonetheless became the first Republican to win the White House without carryingHillsborough County sinceRichard Nixon in1968. This is the first time since 2016 in which the state winner did not win a majority of the counties, Harris and Trump both won 5.

Notably, on the same ballot, Republicans won the opengovernor race and expanded their majorities in both state legislative chambers.

The towns ofAcworth,Berlin,Claremont,Francestown,Freedom,Greenfield,Hart's Location,Jaffrey,Langdon,Littleton,Lyndeborough,Martin's Location,Nottingham,Pembroke,Shelburne,Springfield,Stratford,Sullivan,Swanzey,Tamworth, andTemple all flipped to Trump after either backing Joe Biden, yielding a tie, or recording no votes in 2020.[73][74][clarification needed]

Success andWolfeboro both flipped to Harris after either backing Trump, yielding a tie, or recording no votes in 2020.[73][74][clarification needed]

See also

[edit]

Notes

[edit]
  1. ^Calculated by taking the difference of 100% and all other candidates combined.
  2. ^abcdefghijklmnopqrstKey:
    A – all adults
    RV – registered voters
    LV – likely voters
    V – unclear
  3. ^"Other" with 3%
  4. ^ab"Someone else" with 2%
  5. ^abWith voters who lean towards a given candidate
  6. ^abc"Another candidate" with 1%
  7. ^ab"Someone else" with 1%
  8. ^"Someone else" with 16%
  9. ^Joe Manchin (I) with 2%; Lars Mapstead (L) with 1%
  10. ^Donald Trump with 10%; "Another candidate" with 5%
  11. ^"Other" with 10%
  12. ^ab"Someone else" with 14%
  13. ^Donald Trump with 9%; "Another candidate" with 6%
  14. ^Donald Trump with 10%; "Another candidate" with 4%
  15. ^Donald Trump with 16%; "Another candidate" with 11%
  16. ^Donald Trump with 15%; "Another candidate" with 10%
  17. ^The Libertarian Party of New Hampshire released a statement acknowledging the nomination of Oliver by the national Libertarian Party, choosing to endorse Donald Trump instead.[69]

Partisan clients

  1. ^Poll sponsored byAmerican Thinker
  2. ^Poll sponsored byWHDH
  3. ^abcPoll conducted forKennedy's campaign
  4. ^Poll conducted for the New Hampshire Journal
  5. ^Poll conducted for theJohn Bolton Super PAC

References

[edit]
  1. ^"270toWin - 2024 Presidential Election Interactive Map".270toWin.com. RetrievedFebruary 21, 2024.
  2. ^ab"New Hampshire Defies National Democrats' New Calendar With January Primary Date".HuffPost. November 15, 2023. RetrievedNovember 15, 2023.
  3. ^O'Keefe, Ed; Novak, Analisa (February 3, 2023)."New Hampshire battles to retain first-in-the-nation presidential primary as DNC leaders meet to vote on possible changes".CBS News.Archived from the original on February 5, 2023. RetrievedFebruary 5, 2023.
  4. ^Kashinsky, Lisa; Garrity, Kelly (April 30, 2023)."Messing with New Hampshire's primary could have consequences for Biden and the ballot, senator says".Politico. RetrievedJanuary 17, 2024.
  5. ^Sexton, Adam (July 9, 2023)."Hassan on threat to New Hampshire primary: 'We will go first'".WMUR.com. RetrievedJanuary 17, 2024.
  6. ^Schneider, Elena (October 24, 2023)."Biden won't appear on New Hampshire primary ballot".Politico. RetrievedOctober 24, 2023.
  7. ^Kashinsky, Lisa (October 30, 2023)."Democrats launch write-in campaign for Biden in N.H."Politico. RetrievedOctober 30, 2023.
  8. ^"2024 Democratic Presidential Primary Election Results".NH SOS. RetrievedFebruary 2, 2024.
  9. ^Marrans, Daniel (January 22, 2024)."Pro-Palestine Activists Urge New Hampshire Voters To Write In 'Cease-Fire'".HuffPost.com. RetrievedJanuary 23, 2024.
  10. ^"2024 Republican Presidential Primary Election Results – Summary by Counties".New Hampshire Secretary of State. RetrievedMarch 8, 2024.
  11. ^"2024 Republican Presidential Primary Election Results by Write-ins – Summary by Counties".New Hampshire Secretary of State. RetrievedMarch 8, 2024.
  12. ^"2024 New Hampshire presidential primary results".AP.
  13. ^"2024 CPR Electoral College Ratings".Cook Political Report.
  14. ^"Presidential Ratings".Inside Elections.
  15. ^"2024 Electoral College ratings".centerforpolitics.org.University of Virginia Center for Politics.
  16. ^"2024 presidential predictions".elections2024.thehill.com/.The Hill.
  17. ^"2024 Presidential Forecast".projects.cnalysis.com/.CNalysis.
  18. ^"Electoral College map 2024: Road to 270".CNN.
  19. ^"Trump v Biden: The Economist's presidential election prediction model".The Economist.
  20. ^Morris, G. Elliott (June 11, 2024)."2024 Election Forecast".FiveThirtyEight.
  21. ^"2024 Presidential Election Polls".YouGov.
  22. ^"2024 Presidential Forecast".Split Ticket. June 2, 2023.
  23. ^"New Hampshire 2024 Presidential Election Polls - 270toWin".270toWin.com.
  24. ^Best, Ryan; Bycoffe, Aaron; King, Ritchie; Mehta, Dhrumil; Wiederkehr, Anna."New Hampshire : President: general election : 2024 Polls".FiveThirtyEight. Archived fromthe original on June 4, 2022.
  25. ^Silver, Nate."FINAL Silver Bulletin 2024 presidential election forecast".www.natesilver.net.
  26. ^"Harris vs. Trump New Hampshire polls - The Hill and DDHQ".The Hill.
  27. ^"The Dartmouth Poll - November 2024 Pre-Election Survey"(PDF).Dartmouth College. November 4, 2024.
  28. ^"Election 2024: Harris +1 in New Hampshire, +3 in Minnesota".Rasmussen Reports. October 30, 2024.
  29. ^Graham, Michael (October 27, 2024)."POLL SHOCKER: Trump Leads Harris in New Hampshire".New Hampshire Journal.
  30. ^"2024 presidential vote preferences by state".Cooperative Election Study. October 29, 2024.
  31. ^"October 2024 New Hampshire Poll: Harris 50%, Trump 47%".Emerson College Polling. October 24, 2024.
  32. ^"The Dartmouth Poll - Mid-October 2024 Survey"(PDF).Dartmouth College. October 25, 2024.
  33. ^abMcKinley, Sean; Smith, Andrew; Azem, Zachary; Keirns, Tracy (August 21, 2024)."Harris Maintains Lead Over Trump in NH; Walz Inspires Enthusiasm Among Harris Supporters".University of New Hampshire Scholars' Repository.
  34. ^abMumford, Camille (July 31, 2024)."New Hampshire 2024 Poll: Harris 50%, Trump 46%".Emerson Polling.
  35. ^abMcKinley, Sean; Smith, Andrew; Azem, Zachary; Keirns, Tracy (July 25, 2024)."NH Democrats Line Up Behind Harris, Who Holds Small Lead Over Trump".University of New Hampshire Scholars' Repository.
  36. ^ab"New Hampshire Statewide Survey - December 2021"(PDF).The Trafalgar Group. December 13, 2021.
  37. ^McKinley, Sean; Smith, Andrew; Azem, Zachary; Keirns, Tracy (November 3, 2024)."Harris' Lead Over Trump Narrows in NH; Likely Voters Split on Expected Winner Nationally".University of New Hampshire Scholars' Repository.
  38. ^Levesque, Neil; Sisco, Tauna (October 30, 2024)."New Poll by the Saint Anselm College Survey Center shows Kamala Harris Holding a Solid Lead in New Hampshire".Saint Anselm College.
  39. ^"UMass Lowell / YouGov - Survey of New Hampshire Likely Voters"(PDF).University of Massachusetts Lowell. October 31, 2024.
  40. ^"UMass Lowell / YouGov - Survey of New Hampshire Likely Voters"(PDF).University of Massachusetts Lowell. October 17, 2024.
  41. ^Levesque, Neil; Sisco, Tauna (October 3, 2024)."A Survey of Likely New Hampshire Voters"(PDF).Saint Anselm College.
  42. ^McKinley, Sean; Smith, Andrew; Azem, Zachary; Keirns, Tracy (September 18, 2024)."Near Unanimous Support for Harris Among NH Democrats Fuels Wider Lead Over Trump".University of New Hampshire Scholars' Repository.
  43. ^"Saint Anselm College Survey Center New Poll: Partisan Intensity Drives Harris's Ballot Strength".Saint Anselm College. September 13, 2024.
  44. ^"Saint Anselm College Survey Center July Poll Finds Harris Currently Leading Trump by 6 Points Among New Hampshire Registered Voters".Saint Anselm College. July 25, 2024.
  45. ^abGraham, Michael (July 22, 2024)."EXCLUSIVE POLL: Trump, Harris Neck-and-Neck in New Hampshire".New Hampshire Journal.
  46. ^abMcKinley, Sean; Smith, Andrew; Azem, Zachary; Keirns, Tracy (May 23, 2024)."Biden, Trump Locked in Close Contest in NH; Gabbard & Ramaswamy Favored for Trump's VP".University of New Hampshire Scholars' Repository.
  47. ^abc"Biden Is the Real Spoiler, Kennedy Only Candidate Who Can Beat Trump".Kennedy24. May 1, 2024.
  48. ^abcd"The Presidential Contest in New Hampshire - Marist New Hampshire Poll".Marist Poll. January 19, 2024.
  49. ^abcdefMumford, Camille (November 15, 2023)."New Hampshire 2024: Haley Surges to Second Place While Trump Maintains Lead".Emerson Polling.
  50. ^abcdefMcKinley, Sean; Smith, Andrew; Azem, Zachary (September 22, 2023)."Biden Frontrunner in NH DEM Primary Despite Age Concerns".University of New Hampshire Scholars' Repository.
  51. ^abMumford, Camille (August 15, 2023)."New Hampshire 2024: DeSantis Fades, Trump Maintains Lead in Primary".Emerson Polling.
  52. ^ab"New Hampshire Presidential Poll: Survey Reveals Pitfalls & Opportunities for 2024 Hopefuls; Most Republican Candidates Can Make Debate Stage".American Pulse Research & Polling. July 17, 2023.
  53. ^ab"SACSC June poll shows voters believe a Biden/Trump matchup would be a clear sign of a broken party system".Saint Anselm College. June 27, 2023.
  54. ^abcMumford, Camille (March 7, 2023)."New Hampshire 2024: Trump Holds 41-Point Lead for Republican Nomination".Emerson Polling.
  55. ^ab"New Hampshire Presidential Study - General Election Voters".co/efficient. January 27, 2023.
  56. ^Mumford, Camille (November 4, 2022)."New Hampshire: Hassan Maintains Narrow Lead Over Bolduc".Emerson Polling.
  57. ^Cluverius, John; Burke, Sierra; Abouchamcha, Jihan (November 3, 2022)."UMass Lowell Survey of New Hampshire Likely Voters"(PDF).University of Massachusetts Lowell.
  58. ^Mumford, Camille (October 24, 2022)."New Hampshire 2022: Bolduc Gains on Hassan in US Senate Election".Emerson Polling.
  59. ^Mumford, Camille (September 16, 2022)."New Hampshire 2022: Senator Hassan Leads Freshly Nominated Bolduc By 11".Emerson Polling.
  60. ^abMcKinley, Sean; Smith, Andrew; Azem, Zachary (June 22, 2022)."DeSantis Tied With Trump for 2024 GOP Presidential Nomination in NH; Runs Better Against Biden Than Trump".University of New Hampshire Scholars' Repository.
  61. ^"Trump Drops: New Hampshire Poll"(PDF).Bolton Super PAC. June 11, 2021. Archived fromthe original(PDF) on June 12, 2021.
  62. ^Levesque, Neil; Sisco, Tauna (July 1, 2024)."A Survey of Registered New Hampshire Voters"(PDF).Saint Anselm College.
  63. ^Page, Susan; Kochi, Sudiksha; Kuchar, Savannah (January 9, 2024)."Exclusive: It's not the economy, stupid. In NH, democracy is the top issue for Dems, independents".USA Today.
  64. ^"NHJournal/Praecones Analytica - NH Survey of Registered Voters"(PDF).New Hampshire Journal. May 21, 2024.
  65. ^Cluverius, John (May 22, 2024)."University of Massachusetts Lowell/YouGov"(PDF).University of Massachusetts Lowell.
  66. ^"New Poll by Saint Anselm College Survey Center finds Nikki Haley is the clear choice of voters that have an unfavorable opinion of former President Donald Trump".Saint Anselm College. December 20, 2023.
  67. ^Graham, Michael (April 18, 2022)."POLL SHOCKER: Sununu Beats Biden for Prez in Head-to-Head".New Hampshire Journal.
  68. ^"2024 General Election Results".New Hampshire Secretary of State David M. Scanlan. RetrievedNovember 9, 2024.
  69. ^Porter, Steven (November 1, 2024)."Libertarian Party leaders back MAGA movement and Trump — against their own nominee".Boston Globe. RetrievedNovember 5, 2024.
  70. ^"Dra 2020".
  71. ^"The Expansion of Voting Before Election Day, 2000–2024".The Center for Election Innovation & Research. RetrievedSeptember 7, 2024.
  72. ^"New Hampshire President Results 2024". NBC News. November 9, 2024. RetrievedNovember 9, 2024.
  73. ^ab"2024 General Election Results".New Hampshire Secretary of State.
  74. ^ab"2020 Election Results".New Hampshire Secretary of State.
U.S.
President
U.S.
Senate
U.S.
House

(election
ratings
)
Governors
Lieutenant
governors
Attorneys
general
Secretaries
of state
State
treasurers
State
auditors
Judicial
Other
statewide
elections
State
legislative
Mayors
Local
States and
territories
Ballot
measures
State and district results of the2024 United States presidential election
Electoral map, 2024 election
Retrieved from "https://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=2024_United_States_presidential_election_in_New_Hampshire&oldid=1313157800"
Categories:
Hidden categories:

[8]ページ先頭

©2009-2025 Movatter.jp