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2024 United States presidential election in Nevada

From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

Main article:2024 United States presidential election
2024 United States presidential election in Nevada
← 2020November 5, 20242028 →
Turnout72.84%[1] (Decrease 5.38%)
 
NomineeDonald TrumpKamala Harris
PartyRepublicanDemocratic
Home stateFloridaCalifornia
Running mateJD VanceTim Walz
Electoral vote60
Popular vote751,205705,197
Percentage50.59%47.49%
County results
Congressional district results
Precinct results

Trump

  40–50%
  50–60%
  60–70%
  70–80%
  80–90%
  90–100%

Harris

  40–50%
  50–60%
  60–70%
  70–80%
  80–90%
  90–100%

Tie/no votes

  
  

President before election

Joe Biden
Democratic

Elected President

Donald Trump
Republican

Elections in Nevada
U.S. President
U.S. Senate
U.S. House

None of These Candidates

flagNevada portal

The2024 United States presidential election in Nevada took place on Tuesday, November 5, 2024, as part of the2024 United States presidential election in which all 50 states, plus theDistrict of Columbia, participated.Nevada voters chose electors to represent them in theElectoral College via a popular vote. The state of Nevada has six electoral votes in the Electoral College, followingreapportionment due to the2020 United States census, in which the state neither gained nor lost a seat.[2]

DespiteDonald Trump, who was running under the Republican banner a third consecutive time, not carrying Nevada in either of his past two presidential campaigns, polling in the state showed him in a strong position to win the state againstJoe Biden, with Trump leading Biden in all major polls on Nevada's voting intention from October 2023 until Biden's withdrawal in July 2024. Nevada also elected a Republican governor in2022. However,Kamala Harris, from neighboring California, had polled somewhat better since becoming the Democratic nominee. The state was rated as a tossup by nearly all major news organizations.[3]

Despite more competitive polling after Harris entered the race, Trump won Nevada, defeating Harris by over 3.10% and becoming the first Republican to win the state sinceGeorge W. Bush in2004. Trump's gains withLatino andFilipino voters were crucial to him flipping the state,[4][5] and his 751,205 votes set a new record for votes cast for any candidate in state history.

Nevada was the only state to vote for Trump in 2024 after failing to back him in either of his two previous runs in2016 and2020, and the only state that voted differently from2016 to 2024 (thoughNebraska's second congressional district, with one electoral vote, voted for Trump in2016 and for Harris in2024). Never before in American history have two presidential elections differed by only a single state, with the closest previous instance coming between1884 and1888, when onlyNew York andIndiana changed their vote, and more recently between2008 and2012, when onlyNorth Carolina and again Indiana changed their vote, along with Nebraska’s second congressional district.[6] This is also the first time in the state's history that it voted Republican whileColorado voted Democratic, as well as the first time since1996 that the swing county ofWashoe (Reno) backed the statewide loser in a presidential election.

Primary elections

[edit]

Democratic primary

[edit]
Main article:2024 Nevada Democratic presidential primary

The Nevada Democratic primary was held on February 6, 2024.

Nevada Democratic primary, February 6, 2024[7]
CandidateVotesPercentageActual delegate count
PledgedUnpledgedTotal
Joe Biden (incumbent)119,75889.3%3636
None of These Candidates7,4485.6%
Marianne Williamson4,1013.1%
Gabriel Cornejo8110.6%
Jason Palmer5300.4%
Frankie Lozada3150.2%
Armando Perez-Serrato2640.2%
John Haywood2410.2%
Stephen Lyons1470.1%
Superpayaseria Crystalroc1330.1%
Donald Picard1240.1%
Brent Foutz930.1%
Stephen Alan Leon890.1%
Mark R. Prascak33<0.1%
Total:134,087100%361349

Republican nominating contests

[edit]
Main article:2024 Nevada Republican presidential nominating contests

Although the Nevada state government established a primary system in 2021, thestate Republican Party chose to boycott the primary, scheduled for February 6, in favor of a party-organized caucus, scheduled for February 8. Votes from the primary were not included in determining delegate allocation.

Nevada Republican primary, February 6, 2024[8]
CandidateVotesPercentage
None of These Candidates[9]50,76363.26%
Nikki Haley24,58330.63%
Mike Pence (withdrawn)3,0913.85%
Tim Scott (withdrawn)1,0811.35%
John Anthony Castro2700.34%
Hirsh V. Singh (withdrawn)2000.25%
Donald Kjornes1660.21%
Heath V. Fulkerson950.12%
Total:80,249100.00%
Nevada Republican caucus, February 8, 2024[10]
CandidateVotesPercentageActual delegate count
BoundUnboundTotal
Donald Trump59,98299.11%251[a]26
Ryan Binkley5400.89%000
Total60,522100.00%25126

General election

[edit]

Voting law changes

[edit]

By 2022, every voter received a mail-in ballot unless they opted out, and eligible voters were automatically registered after common transactions at the DMV.[11]

Predictions

[edit]
SourceRankingAs of
The Cook Political Report[12]TossupNovember 4, 2024
Sabato's Crystal Ball[13]Lean DNovember 4, 2024
Decision Desk HQ/The Hill[14]TossupNovember 4, 2024
CNN[15]TossupNovember 4, 2024
CNalysis[16]Tilt DNovember 4, 2024
The Economist[17]TossupNovember 4, 2024
538[18]TossupNovember 4, 2024
Inside Elections[19]TossupNovember 3, 2024
NBC News[20]TossupNovember 4, 2024

Polling

[edit]

Kamala Harris vs. Donald Trump

Aggregate polls

Source of poll
aggregation		Dates
administered		Dates
updated		Kamala
Harris
Democratic		Donald
Trump
Republican		Other /
Undecided
[b]		Margin
270ToWin[21]October 22 – November 4, 2024November 4, 202447.6%48.2%4.2%Trump +0.6%
538[22]through November 4, 2024November 4, 202447.4%47.7%4.8%Trump +0.3%
Silver Bulletin[23]through November 4, 2024November 5, 202447.9%48.5%3.6%Trump +0.6%
The Hill/DDHQ[24]through November 4, 2024November 5, 202447.5%49.2%3.3%Trump +1.7%
Average47.6%48.3%4.1%Trump +0.7%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size[c]		Margin
of error		Kamala
Harris
Democratic		Donald
Trump
Republican		Other /
Undecided
HarrisX[25]November 3–5, 20241,260 (RV)± 2.8%47%46%7%
51.6%[d]48.5%–
1,125 (LV)48%48%4%
50.5%[d]49.5%–
AtlasIntel[26]November 3–4, 2024707 (LV)± 4.0%47%50%3%
47%50%3%[e]
Patriot Polling[27]November 1–3, 2024792 (RV)± 3.0%49%50%1%
AtlasIntel[28]November 1–2, 2024782 (LV)± 4.0%46%52%2%[e]
46%51%3%
Emerson College[29]October 30 – November 2, 2024840 (LV)± 3.3%48%48%4%[f]
49%[d]49%1%[f]
The New York Times/Siena College[30]October 24 – November 2, 20241,010 (RV)± 3.5%48%46%6%
1,010 (LV)49%46%5%
AtlasIntel[31]October 30–31, 2024845 (LV)± 3.0%47%51%2%
47%51%2%[g]
Emerson College[32][A]October 29–31, 2024700 (LV)± 3.6%48%47%5%[h]
49%[d]48%3%[h]
Noble Predictive Insights[33]October 28–31, 2024593 (LV)± 4.0%49%48%3%
Susquehanna Polling & Research[34]October 28–31, 2024400 (LV)± 4.9%44%50%6%
YouGov[35][B]October 25–31, 2024790 (RV)± 4.6%50%49%1%
773 (LV)50%49%1%
Data for Progress (D)[36]October 25–30, 2024721 (LV)± 4.0%49%47%4%
Rasmussen Reports (R)[37][C]October 25–30, 2024767 (LV)± 3.0%47%49%4%[g]
AtlasIntel[38]October 25–29, 20241,083 (LV)± 3.0%48%49%3%
48%48%4%[g]
Trafalgar Group (R)[39]October 25–28, 20241,082 (LV)± 2.9%48%48%4%[i]
CES/YouGov[40]October 1–25, 2024940 (A)–53%44%3%
933 (LV)51%47%2%
InsiderAdvantage (R)[41]October 20–21, 2024800 (LV)± 3.5%48%48%4%[g]
Bloomberg/Morning Consult[42]October 16–20, 2024449 (RV)± 5.0%49%48%3%
420 (LV)49%48%3%
AtlasIntel[43]October 12–17, 20241,171 (LV)± 3.0%48%48%4%
Fabrizio Ward (R)/Impact Research (D)[44][D]October 8−15, 2024600 (LV)± 4.0%47%49%4%[j]
Morning Consult[45]October 6−15, 2024496 (LV)± 4.0%49%45%6%
Revere Solutions/Providence[46]October 22-23, 2024538 (LV)± 4.0%46.8%50.6%2.6%
The Washington Post/Schar School[47]September 30 – October 15, 2024652 (RV)± 4.8%47%44%9%
652 (LV)48%48%4%
Rasmussen Reports (R)[48][C]October 9–14, 2024748 (LV)± 3.0%47%49%4%[i]
Trafalgar Group (R)[49]October 10–13, 20241,088 (LV)± 2.9%46%45%9%[k]
Fabrizio, Lee & Associates (R)/McLaughlin & Associates (R)[50][E]October 6–9, 2024800 (LV)± 3.5%47%50%3%
Emerson College[51]October 5–8, 2024900 (LV)± 3.2%48%47%5%[l]
49%[d]48%3%[m]
The Wall Street Journal[52]September 28 – October 8, 2024600 (RV)± 5.0%43%49%8%
RMG Research[53][F]September 30 – October 3, 2024782 (LV)± 3.5%49%47%4%[n]
49%[d]49%2%[o]
OnMessage Inc. (R)[54][G]September 24 – October 2, 2024500 (LV)± 4.4%45%47%8%
InsiderAdvantage (R)[55]September 29–30, 2024800 (LV)± 3.0%48%49%1%[g]
Global Strategy Group (D)/North Star Opinion Research (R)[56][H]September 23–29, 2024407 (LV)± 4.9%48%47%5%
TIPP Insights[57][I]September 23−25, 20241,044 (RV)± 3.7%48%44%8%
736 (LV)49%48%3%
Quantus Insights (R)[58][J]September 23−25, 2024628 (LV)± 4.0%48%49%3%[p]
AtlasIntel[59]September 20–25, 2024858 (LV)± 3.0%51%48%1%
Cook Political Report/BSG (R)/GS Strategy Group (D)[60]September 19–25, 2024409 (LV)–48%47%5%
Bloomberg/Morning Consult[61]September 19–25, 2024574 (RV)± 4.0%49%45%6%
516 (LV)52%45%3%
Rasmussen Reports (R)[62][C]September 19−22, 2024738 (LV)± 3.0%48%49%3%
Remington Research Group (R)[63][K]September 16–20, 2024800 (LV)± 3.5%48%49%3%
The Tarrance Group (R)[64][L]September 16–19, 2024600 (LV)± 4.1%47%44%9%[q]
Emerson College[65]September 15–18, 2024895 (LV)± 3.2%48%48%4%[r]
49%[d]49%2%[r]
Morning Consult[45]September 9−18, 2024474 (LV)± 5.0%51%47%2%
Noble Predictive Insights[66]September 9−16, 2024812 (RV)± 3.4%48%45%7%
692 (LV)± 3.7%48%47%5%
Trafalgar Group (R)[67]September 11–13, 20241,079 (LV)± 2.9%45%44%11%[s]
Morning Consult[45]August 30 – September 8, 2024516 (LV)± 4.0%48%48%4%
Patriot Polling[68]September 1–3, 2024788 (RV)–47%47%6%
InsiderAdvantage (R)[69]August 29–31, 2024800 (LV)± 3.5%47%48%5%[t]
Emerson College[70]August 25–28, 20241,168 (LV)± 2.8%49%48%3%[u]
49%[d]49%1%[v]
Bloomberg/Morning Consult[71]August 23–26, 2024416 (LV)± 5.0%50%46%4%
450 (RV)49%45%6%
Fox News[72]August 23–26, 20241,026 (RV)± 3.0%50%48%2%[g]
August 23, 2024Robert F. Kennedy Jr. suspendshis presidential campaign and endorses Donald Trump.
August 19–22, 2024Democratic National Convention
Rasmussen Reports (R)[73][M]August 13–18, 2024980 (LV)± 3.0%46%48%6%
Focaldata[74]August 6–16, 2024678 (LV)± 3.8%54%46%–
The New York Times/Siena College[75]August 12–15, 2024677 (RV)± 4.4%46%48%6%
677 (LV)47%48%5%
Cook Political Report/BSG (R)/GS Strategy Group (D)[76]July 26 – August 8, 2024403 (LV)–45%48%7%
August 6, 2024Kamala Harrisselects Gov.Tim Walz as her running mate.
Public Opinion Strategies (R)[77][N]July 23–29, 2024400 (LV)± 4.9%45%46%9%
Bloomberg/Morning Consult[78]July 24–28, 2024454 (RV)± 5.0%47%45%7%
July 21, 2024Joe Biden announceshis withdrawal; Kamala Harris declaresher candidacy for president.
July 18, 2024Republican National Convention concludes
InsiderAdvantage (R)[79]July 15–16, 2024800 (LV)± 3.5%40%50%10%
July 15, 2024Republican National Convention begins
July 13, 2024attempted assassination of Donald Trump
Bloomberg/Morning Consult[80]May 7–13, 2024459 (RV)± 5.0%44%47%9%
Emerson College[81]February 16–19, 20241,000 (RV)± 3.0%39%48%13%
The New York Times/Siena College[82]October 22 – November 3, 2023611 (RV)± 4.4%42%48%10%
611 (LV)42%50%8%

Kamala Harris vs. Donald Trump vs. Cornel West vs. Jill Stein vs. Chase Oliver

Aggregate polls

Source of poll
aggregation		Dates
administered		Dates
updated		Kamala
Harris
Democratic		Donald
Trump
Republican		Jill
Stein[w]
Green		Cornel
West[w]
Independent		Chase
Oliver
Libertarian		Other/
Undecided
[b]		Margin
Race to the WH[83]through November 2, 2024November 3, 202447.9%47.3%——1.2%3.6%Harris +0.6%
270toWin[84]October 22 – November 3, 2024November 3, 202447.8%47.4%0.0%0.0%1.0%3.8%Harris +0.4%
Average47.9%47.4%0.0%0.0%1.1%3.7%Harris +0.5%


Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size[c]		Margin
of error		Kamala
Harris
Democratic		Donald
Trump
Republican		Cornel
West[w]
Independent		Jill
Stein[w]
Green		Chase
Oliver
Libertarian		Other /
Undecided
HarrisX[25]November 3–5, 20241,260 (RV)± 2.8%46%45%2%1%–6%
50%[d]46%3%1%––
1,125 (LV)48%47%2%1%–2%
49%[d]48%2%1%––
The New York Times/Siena College[30]October 24 – November 2, 20241,010 (RV)± 3.5%47%44%––3%6%
1,010 (LV)48%46%––2%4%
Focaldata[85]October 3 – November 1, 20241,324 (LV)–48%47%–0%1%4%
1,197 (RV)± 2.7%49%45%–0%2%4%
1,324 (A)–48%44%–0%2%1%
Noble Predictive Insights[33]October 28–31, 2024593 (LV)± 4.0%49%48%––0%3%[x]
Redfield & Wilton Strategies[86]October 28–31, 2024690 (LV)–47%48%–0%1%4%
YouGov[35][B]October 25–31, 2024790 (RV)± 4.6%48%47%0%0%–5%
773 (LV)48%47%0%0%–5%
Data for Progress (D)[36]October 25–30, 2024721 (LV)± 4.0%49%47%––1%3%[x]
Redfield & Wilton Strategies[87]October 25–27, 2024531 (LV)–47%47%––1%6%
CNN/SSRS[88]October 21–26, 2024683 (LV)± 4.6%47%48%––1%4%
Redfield & Wilton Strategies[89]October 20–22, 2024540 (LV)–46%47%–0%0%7%
OnMessage Inc. (R)[90][O]October 19–22, 2024600 (LV)± 4.0%47%50%––0%3%
Bloomberg/Morning Consult[42]October 16–20, 2024449 (RV)± 5.0%48%47%–0%2%3%
420 (LV)48%48%–0%1%3%
Redfield & Wilton Strategies[91]October 16–18, 2024529 (LV)–46%47%–1%1%5%
AtlasIntel[43]October 12–17, 20241,171 (LV)± 3.0%48%48%–2%0%2%
Fabrizio Ward (R)/Impact Research (D)[44][D]October 8−15, 2024600 (LV)± 4.0%46%47%––1%6%[j]
Redfield & Wilton Strategies[92]October 12–14, 2024838 (LV)–47%47%–0%1%5%
Redfield & Wilton Strategies[93]September 27 – October 2, 2024514 (LV)–48%47%–1%1%3%
TIPP Insights[57][I]September 23−25, 20241,044 (RV)± 3.7%48%43%1%0%−9%
736 (LV)50%49%0%0%−1%
AtlasIntel[59]September 20–25, 2024858 (LV)± 3.0%51%48%–1%––
Bloomberg/Morning Consult[61]September 19–25, 2024574 (RV)± 4.0%46%44%–3%4%3%
516 (LV)50%44%–2%2%2%
Redfield & Wilton Strategies[94]September 16–19, 2024652 (LV)–45%45%–0%1%9%
Noble Predictive Insights[66]September 9−16, 2024812 (RV)± 3.4%46%43%–0%1%10%[y]
692 (LV)± 3.7%47%47%–0%1%5%[z]
Redfield & Wilton Strategies[95]September 6–9, 2024698 (LV)–45%46%–1%1%7%
YouGov[96][B]August 23 – September 3, 2024800 (RV)± 4.7%49%46%0%1%–4%[g]
CNN/SSRS[97]August 23–29, 2024976 (LV)± 4.4%48%47%–1%1%3%
Redfield & Wilton Strategies[98]August 25–28, 2024490 (LV)–47%47%–1%0%5%
Bloomberg/Morning Consult[71]August 23–26, 2024416 (LV)± 5.0%48%46%–2%3%1%
450 (RV)48%45%–2%4%1%
Fox News[72]August 23–26, 20241,026 (RV)± 3.0%48%46%2%1%1%2%[g]
Hypothetical polling with Robert F. Kennedy Jr.

Kamala Harris vs. Donald Trump vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Cornel West vs. Jill Stein vs. Chase Oliver

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size[c]		Margin
of error		Kamala
Harris
Democratic		Donald
Trump
Republican		Robert F.
Kennedy Jr.
Independent		Cornel
West
Independent		Jill
Stein
Green		Chase
Oliver
Libertarian		Other /
Undecided
The Wall Street Journal[52]September 28 – October 8, 2024600 (RV)± 5.0%42%47%0%0%0%3%8%
Global Strategy Group (D)/North Star Opinion Research (R)[56][H]September 23–29, 2024407 (LV)± 4.9%47%47%0%0%0%2%4%
Rasmussen Reports (R)[73][M]August 13–18, 2024980 (LV)± 3.0%44%46%5%0%0%1%4%
Focaldata[74]August 6–16, 2024678 (LV)± 3.8%48%42%7%–0%1%2%
678 (RV)49%39%9%–0%1%2%
678 (A)49%39%9%–0%1%2%
Redfield & Wilton Strategies[99]August 12–15, 2024536 (LV)–42%43%6%–1%1%7%
The New York Times/Siena College[75]August 12–15, 2024677 (RV)± 4.4%42%45%6%0%1%1%6%
677 (LV)44%46%4%0%1%1%4%
Cook Political Report/BSG (R)/GS Strategy Group (D)[76]July 26 – August 8, 2024403 (LV)–42%47%5%0%1%–5%
Redfield & Wilton Strategies[100]July 31 – August 3, 2024470 (LV)–40%40%5%–1%0%14%
Bloomberg/Morning Consult[78]July 24–28, 2024454 (RV)± 5.0%43%43%7%–1%3%3%
Redfield & Wilton Strategies[101]July 22–24, 2024435 (LV)–43%45%5%–1%0%6%

Kamala Harris vs. Donald Trump vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr.

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size[c]		Margin
of error		Kamala
Harris
Democratic		Donald
Trump
Republican		Robert F.
Kennedy Jr.
Independent		Other /
Undecided
Strategies 360[102]August 7–14, 2024350 (RV)± 5.2%48%42%5%5%
Trafalgar Group (R)[103]August 6–8, 20241,087 (LV)± 2.9%45%48%3%4%[aa]
Hypothetical polling with Joe Biden and Donald Trump

Joe Biden vs. Donald Trump

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size[c]		Margin
of error		Joe
Biden
Democratic		Donald
Trump
Republican		Other /
Undecided
July 21, 2024Joe Biden announceshis withdrawal; Kamala Harris declaresher candidacy for president.
InsiderAdvantage (R)[79]July 15–16, 2024800 (LV)± 3.5%42%49%9%
Emerson College[104][P]July 15–16, 20241,000 (RV)± 3.0%41%46%13%
Rasmussen Reports (R)[105][Q]July 5–12, 2024761 (LV)± 3.0%45%50%5%
Echelon Insights[106][R]July 1–8, 2024402 (LV)± 6.6%41%50%9%
Bloomberg/Morning Consult[107]July 1–5, 2024452 (RV)± 5.0%43%48%9%
Emerson College[108][P]June 30 – July 2, 20241,000 (RV)± 3.0%41%47%12%
National Public Affairs[109]June 28 – July 1, 2024817 (LV)± 3.4%39%49%12%[ab]
Emerson College[110]June 13–18, 20241,000 (RV)± 3.0%43%46%11%
50%[d]50%–
Fabrizio Ward (R)/Impact Research (D)[111][D]June 12–18, 2024600 (LV)± 4.0%45%48%7%
Fox News[112]June 1–4, 20241,069 (RV)± 3.0%45%50%5%
The Tyson Group[113][S]May 22–25, 2024601 (LV)± 4.0%44%47%9%
Mainstreet Research/Florida Atlantic University[114]May 19–21, 2024522 (RV)± 4.3%42%50%8%
494 (LV)43%51%6%
Prime Group[115][T]May 9–16, 2024468 (RV)–50%50%–
Bloomberg/Morning Consult[80]May 7–13, 2024459 (RV)± 5.0%47%47%6%
Cook Political Report/BSG (R)/GS Strategy Group (D)[116]May 6–13, 2024402 (LV)± 4.9%40%49%11%
The New York Times/Siena College[117]April 28 – May 9, 2024614 (RV)± 4.0%38%50%12%
614 (LV)38%51%11%
Emerson College[118]April 25–29, 20241,000 (RV)± 3.0%44%45%11%
49%[d]51%–
John Zogby Strategies[119][U]April 13–21, 2024517 (LV)–44%50%6%
Bloomberg/Morning Consult[120]April 8–15, 2024450 (RV)± 5.0%43%51%6%
The Wall Street Journal[121]March 17–24, 2024600 (RV)± 4.0%44%48%8%
Echelon Insights[122][V]March 12–19, 2024400 (LV)± 5.8%44%51%5%
Emerson College[123]March 12–15, 20241,000 (RV)± 3.0%41%44%15%
49%[d]51%–
Bloomberg/Morning Consult[124]March 8–15, 2024447 (RV)± 5.0%44%46%10%
Noble Predictive Insights[125]February 27 – March 5, 2024829 (RV)± 3.4%40%45%15%
Bloomberg/Morning Consult[126]February 12–20, 2024445 (RV)± 5.0%42%48%10%
Emerson College[81]February 16–19, 20241,000 (RV)± 3.0%40%46%14%
Focaldata[127]January 17–23, 2024704 (A)–40%43%17%[ac]
– (LV)42%44%14%[ad]
– (LV)49%[d]51%–
Bloomberg/Morning Consult[128]January 16–21, 2024457 (RV)± 5.0%40%48%12%
Emerson College[129]January 5–8, 20241,294 (RV)± 2.6%45%47%8%
Change Research (D)/Future Majority (D)[130]December 3–7, 2023(RVs)–40%44%14%
Bloomberg/Morning Consult[131]November 27 – December 6, 2023451 (RV)± 5.0%44%47%9%
Bloomberg/Morning Consult[132]October 30 – November 7, 2023437 (RV)± 5.0%43%46%11%
Emerson College[133]October 30 – November 4, 20231,000 (RV)± 3.0%39%46%14%
The New York Times/Siena College[82]October 22 – November 3, 2023611 (RV)± 4.4%41%52%7%
611 (LV)41%52%7%
Bloomberg/Morning Consult[134]October 5–10, 2023503 (RV)± 4.0%46%43%11%
CNN[135]September 29 – October 3, 20231,251 (RV)± 4.6%46%45%9%
Vote TXT[136]May 15–19, 2023412 (RV)–41%48%11%
Prime Group[137][T]June 14–28, 2023500 (RV)–51%49%–
39%39%22%[ae]
Noble Predictive Insights[138]April 18–26, 2023613 (RV)± 4.0%48%40%12%
Public Opinion Strategies (R)[139]April 17–20, 2023500 (RV)± 4.4%46%45%9%
OH Predictive Insights[140]January 30 – February 6, 2023800 (RV)± 3.5%40%42%18%
Rasmussen Reports (R)[141][M]November 8–9, 2022679 (LV)± 4.0%41%45%14%
Susquehanna Polling & Research[142][W]October 24–27, 2022500 (LV)± 4.3%47%48%5%
Rasmussen Reports (R)[143][X]October 13–17, 2022707 (LV)± 4.0%37%49%14%
Emerson College[144]September 8–10, 20221,000 (LV)± 3.0%40%43%17%
Emerson College[145]July 7–10, 20222,000 (RV)± 2.1%40%43%17%
Blueprint Polling (D)[146]March 21–24, 2022671 (LV)± 3.8%34%44%22%

Joe Biden vs. Donald Trump vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Cornel West vs. Jill Stein

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size[c]		Margin
of error		Joe
Biden
Democratic		Donald
Trump
Republican		Robert F.
Kennedy Jr.
Independent		Cornel
West
Independent		Jill
Stein
Green		Other /
Undecided
Redfield & Wilton Strategies[147]July 16–18, 2024412 (LV)–41%44%7%–1%7%[ab]
Emerson College[104][P]July 15–16, 20241,000 (RV)± 3.0%40%43%7%1%1%8%[af]
Rasmussen Reports (R)[105][Q]July 5–12, 2024761 (LV)± 3.0%39%47%8%2%1%3%
YouGov[148][B]July 4–12, 2024800 (RV)± 4.7%42%46%3%0%1%8%
Echelon Insights[106][R]July 1–8, 2024402 (LV)± 6.6%35%45%9%2%2%7%[af]
Bloomberg/Morning Consult[107]July 1–5, 2024452 (RV)± 5.0%39%45%6%2%0%8%[af]
National Public Affairs[109]June 28 – July 1, 2024817 (LV)± 3.4%33%42%12%3%2%8%
Emerson College[110]June 13–18, 20241,000 (RV)± 3.0%39%42%7%2%2%8%
Fox News[112]June 1–4, 20241,069 (RV)± 3.0%40%45%7%2%2%4%
The Tyson Group[113][Y]May 22–25, 2024601 (LV)± 4.0%37%40%9%1%2%11%
Prime Group[115][T]May 9–16, 2024468 (RV)–43%44%10%3%0%–
Bloomberg/Morning Consult[80]May 7–13, 2024459 (RV)± 5.0%39%44%7%2%1%7%
Cook Political Report/BSG (R)/GS Strategy Group (D)[116]May 6–13, 2024402 (LV)± 4.9%35%43%10%2%3%7%
The New York Times/Siena College[117]April 28 – May 9, 2024614 (RV)± 4.0%27%41%12%0%2%18%[ag]
614 (LV)30%44%11%0%1%14%[ag]
Emerson College[118]April 25–29, 20241,000 (RV)± 3.0%37%42%8%2%1%11%
Bloomberg/Morning Consult[120]April 8–15, 2024450 (RV)± 5.0%34%48%7%2%3%6%
The Wall Street Journal[121]March 17–24, 2024600 (RV)± 4.0%33%37%15%2%2%11%[ag]
Emerson College[123]March 12–15, 20241,000 (RV)± 3.0%36%41%9%1%2%11%
Bloomberg/Morning Consult[124]March 8–15, 2024447 (RV)± 5.0%36%42%11%1%1%11%
Noble Predictive Insights[125]February 27 – March 5, 2024829 (RV)± 3.4%33%40%11%4%2%10%
Bloomberg/Morning Consult[126]February 12–20, 2024445 (RV)± 5.0%37%44%9%1%0%9%
Emerson College[81]February 16–19, 20241,000 (RV)± 3.0%34%44%6%1%1%14%
Bloomberg/Morning Consult[128]January 16–21, 2024457 (RV)± 5.0%31%43%12%1%2%11%
Emerson College[129]January 5–8, 20241,294 (RV)± 2.6%39%42%5%1%1%12%
Bloomberg/Morning Consult[149]November 27 – December 6, 2023451 (RV)± 5.0%37%42%11%2%1%7%

Joe Biden vs. Donald Trump vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr.

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size[c]		Margin
of error		Joe
Biden
Democratic		Donald
Trump
Republican		Robert F.
Kennedy Jr.
Independent		Other /
Undecided
P2 Insights[150][Z]June 11–20, 2024650 (LV)± 3.8%37%40%8%15%
Fabrizio Ward (R)/Impact Research (D)[111][D]June 12–18, 2024600 (LV)± 4.0%37%44%10%9%
Mainstreet Research/Florida Atlantic University[114]May 19–21, 2024522 (RV)± 4.3%40%44%9%7%
494 (LV)40%46%8%6%
Iron Light Intelligence[151][AA]May 17–21, 2024600 (LV)± 4.0%34%37%15%14%
P2 Insights[152][Z]May 13−21, 2024650 (LV)± 3.8%40%41%9%10%
The New York Times/Siena College[153]October 22 – November 3, 2023611 (RV)± 4.4%31%38%23%8%
611 (LV)34%40%19%7%

Joe Biden vs. Donald Trump vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Cornel West

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size[c]		Margin
of error		Joe
Biden
Democratic		Donald
Trump
Republican		Robert F.
Kennedy Jr.
Independent		Cornel
West
Independent		Other /
Undecided
Bloomberg/Morning Consult[154]October 30 – November 7, 2023437 (RV)± 5.0%35%39%11%1%14%
Hypothetical polling with other candidates

Joe Biden vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr.

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size[c]		Margin
of error		Joe
Biden
Democratic		Robert F.
Kennedy Jr.
Independent		Other /
Undecided
John Zogby Strategies[119][U]April 13–21, 2024517 (LV)–39%51%10%

Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Donald Trump

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size[c]		Margin
of error		Robert F.
Kennedy Jr.
Independent		Donald
Trump
Republican		Other /
Undecided
John Zogby Strategies[119][U]April 13–21, 2024517 (LV)–40%46%14%

Joe Biden vs. Nikki Haley

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size[c]		Margin
of error		Joe
Biden
Democratic		Nikki
Haley
Republican		Other /
Undecided
The New York Times/Siena College[155]October 22 – November 3, 2023611 (RV)± 4.4%38%44%18%
611 (LV)37%46%17%

Joe Biden vs. Ron DeSantis

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size[c]		Margin
of error		Joe
Biden
Democratic		Ron
DeSantis
Republican		Other /
Undecided
The New York Times/Siena College[155]October 22 – November 3, 2023611 (RV)± 4.4%42%43%15%
611 (LV)41%45%14%
Vote TXT[136]May 15–19, 2023412 (RV)–36%46%17%
Noble Predictive Insights[138]April 18–26, 2023613 (RV)± 4.0%43%42%15%
Public Opinion Strategies (R)[139]April 17–20, 2023500 (RV)± 4.4%41%44%10%
OH Predictive Insights[140]January 30 – February 6, 2023800 (RV)± 3.5%36%42%22%
Emerson College[145]July 7–10, 20222,000 (RV)± 2.1%38%43%19%

Gavin Newsom vs. Ron DeSantis

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size[c]		Margin
of error		Gavin
Newsom
Democratic		Ron
DeSantis
Republican		Other /
Undecided
Susquehanna Polling & Research[142][W]October 24–27, 2022500 (LV)± 4.3%42%46%12%

Gavin Newsom vs. Donald Trump

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size[c]		Margin
of error		Gavin
Newsom
Democratic		Donald
Trump
Republican		Other /
Undecided
Emerson College[81]February 16–19, 20241,000 (RV)± 3.0%32%49%19%

Results

[edit]
State Senate district results
State Assembly district results
2024 United States presidential election in Nevada[156]
PartyCandidateVotes%±%
Republican751,20550.59%Increase 2.92%
Democratic705,19747.49%Decrease 2.57%
None of These Candidates19,6251.32%Increase 0.32%
Libertarian6,0590.41%Decrease 0.64%
Independent American2,7540.19%Decrease 0.03%
Total votes1,484,840100.00%N/A

By county

[edit]
County[156]Kamala Harris
Democratic		Donald Trump
Republican		Various candidates
Other parties		MarginTotal
#%#%#%#%
Carson City13,37543.05%16,87354.31%8202.64%3,49811.26%31,068
Churchill3,17923.54%9,96273.78%3622.68%6,78350.23%13,503
Clark520,18750.44%493,05247.81%17,9841.74%-27,135-2.63%1,031,223
Douglas11,55332.49%23,23765.35%7662.15%11,68432.86%35,556
Elko4,63220.62%17,35277.24%4812.14%12,72056.62%22,465
Esmeralda7315.84%37681.56%122.60%30365.73%461
Eureka10410.04%91087.84%222.12%80677.80%1,036
Humboldt1,71121.31%6,14176.48%1782.22%4,43055.17%8,030
Lander48217.69%2,18080.00%632.31%1,69862.31%2,725
Lincoln31412.70%2,10885.28%502.02%1,79472.57%2,472
Lyon8,95426.70%23,86171.14%7262.16%14,90744.44%33,541
Mineral71130.98%1,52866.58%562.44%81735.60%2,295
Nye7,55928.00%18,94670.18%4921.82%11,38742.18%26,997
Pershing49621.49%1,76476.43%482.08%1,26854.94%2,308
Storey91329.69%2,10868.55%541.76%1,19538.86%3,075
Washoe130,07149.32%127,44348.32%6,2202.36%-2,628-1.00%263,734
White Pine88320.29%3,36477.32%1042.39%2,48157.02%4,351
Totals705,19747.49%751,20550.59%28,4381.92%46,0083.10%1,484,840
Swing by county:
  Democratic — +0-2.5%
  Republican — +0-2.5%
  Republican — +2.5-5%
  Republican — +5-7.5%
  Republican — +7.5-10%
  Republican — +10-12.5%

By congressional district

[edit]

Trump won two of four congressional districts, including one that elected a Democrat.[157]

DistrictHarrisTrumpRepresentative
1st50.24%47.98%Dina Titus
2nd41.86%55.80%Mark Amodei
3rd48.81%49.54%Susie Lee
4th50.24%47.92%Steven Horsford

Analysis

[edit]
This sectiondoes notcite anysources. Please helpimprove this section byadding citations to reliable sources. Unsourced material may be challenged andremoved.(March 2025) (Learn how and when to remove this message)

Nevada is aMountain West state, as well as a crucial swing state for the election. Trump became the first Republican presidential candidate to win the state sinceGeorge W. Bush's narrow victory in2004. It had not been won by double digits sinceObama in 2008 against John McCain. Nevada had voted for the winner of every presidential election since1980, with the exception of2016, when it backedHillary Clinton; and has been decided by single digits in every presidential election since1992, with the exception ofBarack Obama's 12.5% win in2008. Obama won by less than 7% in2012, and Trump lost by less than 2.5% in both2016 and2020. Today Nevada is apurple state. Democratic strength in Nevada is almost entirely focused onLas Vegas andReno, along with many of their suburbs.

Trump's win was the first time since statehood that Nevada voted for a Republican andColorado voted for a Democrat, as well as the first time since2000 that New Mexico and Nevada had voted for different candidates in a presidential election. Trump won 47.8% of the vote inClark County, home toLas Vegas, the highest percentage since1988. Nevada was the only state that did not vote for Trump in either of his2016 or2020 campaigns that voted for him in 2024. This marked the sixth election in a row Nevada voted for the winner of the national popular vote, the longest active streak among anybellwether state. Nevada was one of four states that shifted to the right all three times Trump ran, the others beingArkansas,Florida, andHawaii.

This was the first presidential election in whichClark County cast over a million votes. Lastly, this was also the first presidential election in Nevada's history in which bothClark County andWashoe County failed to back the winning candidate since the former's foundation in 1909 (in spite of the two counties making up the vast majority of the state's population). Ultimately, this occurrence is not unprecedented in Nevada's electoral history, as it has occurred twice before in Nevada's2014 race forAttorney General and2022 race forgovernor.

See also

[edit]

Notes

[edit]
  1. ^If a candidate wins all of Nevada's delegates, the NRP chair is automatically unbound. He pledged his support to Trump.
  2. ^abCalculated by taking the difference of 100% and all other candidates combined.
  3. ^abcdefghijklmnKey:
    A – all adults
    RV – registered voters
    LV – likely voters
    V – unclear
  4. ^abcdefghijklmnWith voters who lean towards a given candidate
  5. ^ab"Blank / null / won't vote" with 1%
  6. ^ab"Someone else" & None of these candidates with 1% each
  7. ^abcdefgh"Other" with 1%
  8. ^ab"Someone else" with 2%; None of these candidates with 1%
  9. ^ab"Other" with 2%
  10. ^abNone of these candidates with 2%
  11. ^"Other" with 4%
  12. ^None of these candidates & "Someone else" with 1% each
  13. ^None of these candidates with 2%; "Someone else" with 1%
  14. ^"Some other candidate" with 1%
  15. ^"Would not vote" with 2%
  16. ^"Some other candidate" with 4%
  17. ^"None of the above" with 4%; "Others" with 1%
  18. ^ab"Someone else" with 2%
  19. ^"Other" with 8%
  20. ^"Another candidate" with 2%
  21. ^"Someone else" with 1%
  22. ^"Someone else" with 1%; None of these candidates with 1%
  23. ^abcdNot on the ballot.
  24. ^abJoel Skousen (C) with 0%
  25. ^None of these candidates with 3%
  26. ^None of these candidates with 1%
  27. ^"Others" with 2%
  28. ^abChase Oliver (L) with 0%
  29. ^"Another candidate" with 10%
  30. ^"Another candidate" with 7%
  31. ^No Labels candidate
  32. ^abcChase Oliver (L) with 1%
  33. ^abcLars Mapstead (L) with 2%
  34. ^Randall Terry was nominated by the nationalConstitution Party, though the state party nominated Joel Skousen.

Partisan clients

  1. ^Poll sponsored byRealClearWorld
  2. ^abcdPoll conducted forThe Times,Stanford University,Arizona State University, andYale University
  3. ^abcPoll sponsored byAmerican Thinker
  4. ^abcdPoll commissioned byAARP
  5. ^Poll sponsored byTrump's campaign
  6. ^Poll sponsored by the Napolitan Institute
  7. ^Poll conducted for the Article III Project
  8. ^abPoll sponsored by thePeter G. Peterson Foundation
  9. ^abPoll sponsored by American Greatness
  10. ^Poll sponsored by TrendingPolitics
  11. ^Poll sponsored by American Fuel & Petrochemical Manufacturers, a group that supports Republican candidates
  12. ^Poll conducted for the Democracy Defense Project
  13. ^abcPoll sponsored byNumbersUSA
  14. ^Poll conducted for Competitiveness Coalition
  15. ^Poll sponsored by the Senate Opportunity Fund
  16. ^abcPoll sponsored by Democrats for the Next Generation PAC
  17. ^abPoll sponsored byThe Heartland Institute
  18. ^abPoll sponsored by NetChoice
  19. ^Poll sponsored by Breaking Battlegrounds
  20. ^abcPoll sponsored by Citizens to Save Our Republic PAC, which opposes Trump and third party candidates
  21. ^abcPoll conducted forKennedy's campaign
  22. ^Poll sponsored byThe Heritage Foundation
  23. ^abPoll sponsored by BUSR
  24. ^Poll sponsored by Capitol Resource Institute
  25. ^Poll sponsored by Breaking Battlegrounds
  26. ^abPoll sponsored byBuilding America's Future, which supports Republican candidates
  27. ^Poll commissioned by League of American Workers

References

[edit]
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  3. ^"Nevada Polls". June 28, 2018.
  4. ^King, John (September 17, 2024)."Economic worries boost Trump's Hispanic support in battleground Nevada".CNN. RetrievedJanuary 1, 2025.
  5. ^Subramanian, Sribala (December 11, 2024)."Did Filipino-Americans Help Trump Win Nevada?".The Diplomat. RetrievedJanuary 1, 2025.
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  10. ^"2024 Presidential Caucus".Nevada Republican Party. RetrievedJanuary 17, 2024.
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  27. ^Ruggieri, Lucca (November 3, 2024)."Final 2024 Presidential Poll".Patriot Polling.
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  29. ^"November 2024 Final Swing State Polls: Too-Close-To-Call Election for President".Emerson College Polling. November 4, 2024.
  30. ^abLerer, Lisa; Igielnik, Ruth (November 3, 2024)."Harris and Trump Battle to the Wire in Swing States, Times/Siena Polls Find".The New York Times.
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  33. ^ab"NEVADA POLL OF RECORD: Harris +1, Rosen +2".Noble Predictive Insights. November 1, 2024.
  34. ^"Nevada Statewide ~ Voter Attitude Survey"(PDF).Susquehanna Polling & Research. November 1, 2024.
  35. ^ab"The Times / SAY Poll: October 25-31, 2024"(PDF).YouGov. November 1, 2024.
  36. ^ab"Final Data for Progress Swing State Polls Show Harris and Trump in Close Race: Harris Ahead by 2 in PA and NV, 1 in GA; Trump Up by 1 in AZ".Data for Progress. November 1, 2024.
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  38. ^"Atlas Poll - US Swing States - October 29, 2024"(PDF).AtlasIntel. October 29, 2024.
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  40. ^"2024 presidential vote preferences by state".Cooperative Election Study. October 29, 2024.
  41. ^"InsiderAdvantage Surveys: Trump Leads by Three Points in Arizona; Nevada is Tied".InsiderAdvantage. October 22, 2024.
  42. ^abKorte, Gregory; Cook, Nancy (October 23, 2024)."Two Weeks Out, Trump and Harris Are Locked in a Dead Heat".Bloomberg.
  43. ^ab"Atlas Poll - US Swing States - October 2024"(PDF).AtlasIntel. October 19, 2024.
  44. ^ab"Nevada Voter Survey, October 2024"(PDF).AARP. October 22, 2024.
  45. ^abcEasley, Cameron; Yokley, Eli (September 9, 2024)."Tracking the 2024 Election: State by State".Morning Consult.
  46. ^Quarshie, Mabinty (October 27, 2024)."In Nevada, Trump and Harris contend with protest vote in tight election".Washington Examiner. RetrievedOctober 20, 2025.
  47. ^Clement, Scott; Guskin, Emily; Keating, Dan; Balz, Dan (October 21, 2024)."Harris and Trump locked in dead heat in seven-state poll, with some voters still deciding".The Washington Post.
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  49. ^"Nevada Statewide Presidential Survey - October 2024"(PDF).The Trafalgar Group. October 15, 2024.
  50. ^Schorr, Isaac (October 10, 2024)."Trump Releases Internal Poll Showing Himself Ahead In Every Swing State — All But One Are Within the Margin of Error".Mediaite.
  51. ^"October 2024 State Polls: Mixed Movement Across Swing States Shows Dead Heat".Emerson College Polling. October 10, 2024.
  52. ^abZitner, Aaron (October 11, 2024)."Battle for Swing States Is Tied, Trump Has Edge on Top Issues, WSJ Poll Shows".The Wall Street Journal.
  53. ^"NEVADA Harris 49% Trump 49%".Napolitan Institute. October 8, 2024.
  54. ^Schorr, Isaac (October 11, 2024)."Battleground Survey & Media Findings"(PDF).OnMessage Inc.
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  56. ^ab"PGPF Battleground Poll Topline Results by State"(PDF).Peter G. Peterson Foundation. October 9, 2024.
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  61. ^abKorte, Gregory; Niquette, Mark (September 26, 2024)."Kamala Harris Holds Razor-Thin Lead Across Swing States in Tight 2024 Race".Bloomberg.
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  71. ^abKorte, Gregory (August 29, 2024)."Harris Edges Trump in Key States, With Sun Belt Now Up for Grabs".Bloomberg.
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