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| Turnout | 75.38% (of registered voters)[1] | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
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 County results Congressional district results Precinct results
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| Elections in Montana | ||||||||
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The2024 United States presidential election in Montana took place on Tuesday, November 5, 2024, as part of the2024 United States presidential election in which all 50 states plus theDistrict of Columbia participated.Montana voters chose electors to represent them in theElectoral College via a popular vote. The state of Montana has four electoral votes in the Electoral College, followingreapportionment due to the2020 United States census in which the state gained a seat.[2]
Trump once again won Montana, this time by 19.93%, an increase from his 16.37% margin of victory in2020, but slightly under his 20.42% margin from2016. Prior to the election, all major news organizations considered Montana a safered state.
The Montana Democratic primary was held on June 4, 2024, alongside primaries in theDistrict of Columbia,New Jersey,New Mexico, andSouth Dakota.
| Candidate | Votes | Percentage | Actual delegate count | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pledged | Unpledged | Total | |||
| Joe Biden (incumbent) | 94,587 | 91.1% | 20 | 20 | |
| No preference | 9,285 | 8.9% | |||
| Total: | 103,872 | 100.0% | 20 | 5 | 25 |
The Montana Republican primary was held on June 4, 2024, alongside primaries in theDistrict of Columbia,New Jersey,New Mexico, andSouth Dakota.
| Candidate | Votes | Percentage | Actual delegate count | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bound | Unbound | Total | |||
| Donald Trump | 165,678 | 90.9% | 31 | 0 | 31 |
| No Preference | 16,570 | 9.1% | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Total: | 182,248 | 100.00% | 31 | 0 | 31 |
The Montana Green primary was held on June 4, 2024, alongside primaries in theDistrict of Columbia.
| Candidate | Votes | Percentage | Delegates | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No Preference | 495 | 100.00% | 4 | ||
| Total: | 495 | 100.00% | 4 | ||
| Source:[5] | |||||
The following presidential candidates have received ballot access in Montana:[6]
| Source | Ranking | As of |
|---|---|---|
| Cook Political Report[7] | Solid R | December 19, 2023 |
| Inside Elections[8] | Solid R | April 26, 2023 |
| Sabato's Crystal Ball[9] | Safe R | June 29, 2023 |
| Decision Desk HQ/The Hill[10] | Safe R | May 30, 2023 |
| CNalysis[11] | Solid R | December 30, 2023 |
| CNN[12] | Solid R | January 14, 2024 |
| The Economist[13] | Safe R | June 12, 2024 |
| 538[14] | Solid R | September 23, 2024 |
| RCP[15] | Likely R | June 26, 2024 |
| NBC News[16] | Safe R | October 6, 2024 |
Donald Trump vs. Kamala Harris
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size[a] | Margin of error | Donald Trump Republican | Kamala Harris Democratic | Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AtlasIntel[17] | November 3–4, 2024 | 752 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 59% | 39% | 2% |
| Emerson College[18][A] | October 23–25, 2024 | 1,000 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 58% | 39% | 3%[b] |
| 59%[c] | 40% | 1% | ||||
| New York Times/Siena College[19] | October 5–8, 2024 | 656 (RV) | ± 4.0% | 57% | 39% | 4% |
| 656 (LV) | 57% | 40% | 3% | |||
| RMG Research[20][B] | September 12–19, 2024 | 491 (LV) | ± 4.4% | 59% | 38% | 3%[d] |
| Fabrizio Ward (R)/ David Binder Research (D)[21][C] | August 25–29, 2024 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 56% | 41% | 3% |
| August 23, 2024 | Robert F. Kennedy Jr. suspendshis presidential campaign and endorses Donald Trump. | |||||
| August 22, 2024 | Democratic National Convention concludes | |||||
| Rasmussen Reports (R)[22][D] | August 13–20, 2024 | 835 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 58% | 35% | 7% |
| August 19, 2024 | Democratic National Convention begins | |||||
| Emerson College[23] | August 5–6, 2024 | 1,000 (RV) | 3.0% | 55% | 40% | 5% |
| 58%[c] | 43% | – | ||||
Donald Trump vs. Kamala Harris vs. Cornel West vs. Jill Stein vs. Chase Oliver
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size[a] | Margin of error | Donald Trump Republican | Kamala Harris Democratic | Cornel West Independent | Jill Stein Green | Chase Oliver Libertarian | Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AtlasIntel[17] | November 3–4, 2024 | 752 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 57% | 37% | – | 2% | 0% | 4%[e] |
| New York Times/Siena College[19] | October 5–8, 2024 | 656 (RV) | ± 4.0% | 56% | 38% | – | 0% | 0% | 6% |
| 656 (LV) | 56% | 39% | – | 0% | 0% | 5% | |||
| Remington Research Group (R)[24][E] | September 16–20, 2024 | 800 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 56% | 39% | – | 2% | – | 3% |
Donald Trump vs. Kamala Harris vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Cornel West vs. Jill Stein vs. Chase Oliver
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size[a] | Margin of error | Donald Trump Republican | Kamala Harris Democratic | Robert F. Kennedy Jr. Independent | Cornel West Independent | Jill Stein Green | Chase Oliver Libertarian | Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Montana State University Billings[25] | September 30 – October 16, 2024 | 760 (A) | ± 3.6% | 52% | 34% | 3% | – | 1% | 2% | 8% |
| Rasmussen Reports (R)[22][D] | August 13–20, 2024 | 835 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 58% | 31% | 7% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 4% |
| American Pulse Research & Polling[26][F] | August 10–12, 2024 | 538 (LV) | ± 4.2% | 52% | 38% | 6% | 0% | 0% | 2% | 8% |
| Emerson College[23] | August 5–6, 2024 | 1,000 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 54% | 39% | 5% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 2% |
Donald Trump vs. Kamala Harris vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size[a] | Margin of error | Donald Trump Republican | Kamala Harris Democratic | Robert F. Kennedy Jr. Independent | Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RMG Research[27][B] | August 6–14, 2024 | 540 (RV) | ± 4.2% | 57% | 39% | 2% | 2% |
Donald Trump vs. Joe Biden
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size[a] | Margin of error | Donald Trump Republican | Joe Biden Democratic | Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Torchlight Strategies (R)[28][G] | June 22–26, 2024 | 649 (RV) | ± 3.9% | 51% | 35% | 14%[f] |
| Public Opinion Strategies (R)[29][H] | June 11–13, 2024 | 500 (LV) | ± 4.4% | 57% | 37% | 6% |
| Fabrizio, Lee & Associates (R)[30][I] | June 3–5, 2024 | 500 (LV) | ± 4.4% | 54% | 36% | 10% |
| John Zogby Strategies[31][J] | April 13–21, 2024 | 301 (LV) | – | 59% | 34% | 7% |
| Emerson College[32][A] | February 26 – March 2, 2024 | 1,000 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 56% | 35% | 9% |
| SurveyUSA[33][F] | February 12–15, 2024 | 549 (LV) | ± 4.5% | 51% | 29% | 20% |
| Emerson College[34] | October 1–4, 2023 | 447 (RV) | ± 4.6% | 49% | 28% | 23% |
| Change Research (D)/Future Majority (D)[35] | September 16–19, 2023 | 1,451 (RV) | – | 54% | 37% | 9% |
| J.L. Partners[36] | August 12–17, 2023 | 741 (LV) | – | 51% | 39% | 10% |
| Echelon Insights[37] | August 31 – September 7, 2022 | 320 (LV) | ± 6.6% | 49% | 36% | 15% |
Donald Trump vs. Joe Biden vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Cornel West vs. Jill Stein
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size[a] | Margin of error | Donald Trump Republican | Joe Biden Democratic | Robert F. Kennedy Jr. Independent | Cornel West Independent | Jill Stein Green | Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Emerson College[32][A] | February 26 – March 2, 2024 | 1,000 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 49% | 28% | 8% | 1% | 1% | 13% |
Donald Trump vs. Joe Biden vs. Cornel West
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size[a] | Margin of error | Donald Trump Republican | Joe Biden Democratic | Cornel West Independent | Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Change Research (D)/Future Majority (D)[35] | September 16–19, 2023 | 1,451 (RV) | – | 51% | 30% | 7% | 12% |
| 49% | 28% | 4% | 19%[g] |
Donald Trump vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size[a] | Margin of error | Donald Trump Republican | Robert Kennedy Jr. Independent | Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| John Zogby Strategies[31][J] | April 13–21, 2024 | 301 (LV) | – | 50% | 35% | 15% |
Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Joe Biden
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size[a] | Margin of error | Robert Kennedy Jr. Independent | Joe Biden Democratic | Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| John Zogby Strategies[31][J] | April 13–21, 2024 | 301 (LV) | – | 58% | 30% | 12% |
Ron DeSantis vs. Joe Biden
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size[a] | Margin of error | Ron DeSantis Republican | Joe Biden Democratic | Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.L. Partners[36] | August 12–17, 2023 | 741 (LV) | – | 50% | 36% | 14% |
| Echelon Insights[37] | August 31 – September 7, 2022 | 320 (LV) | ± 6.6% | 42% | 35% | 23% |
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | ±% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republican | 352,079 | 58.39% | +1.47% | ||
| Democratic | 231,906 | 38.46% | −2.09% | ||
| We the People |
| 11,825 | 1.96% | N/A | |
| Libertarian | 4,275 | 0.71% | −1.82% | ||
| Green | 2,878 | 0.48% | N/A | ||
| Independent |
| 21 | 0.00% | N/A | |
| Write-in | 6 | 0.00% | N/A | ||
| Total votes | 602,990 | 100.00% | N/A | ||
| County[38][39] | Donald Trump Republican | Kamala Harris Democratic | Various candidates Other parties | Margin | Total | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| # | % | # | % | # | % | # | % | ||
| Beaverhead | 4,058 | 70.04% | 1,543 | 26.63% | 193 | 3.33% | 2,515 | 43.41% | 5,794 |
| Big Horn | 2,188 | 48.95% | 2,112 | 47.25% | 170 | 3.80% | 76 | 1.70% | 4,470 |
| Blaine | 1,526 | 50.55% | 1,348 | 44.65% | 145 | 4.80% | 178 | 5.90% | 3,019 |
| Broadwater | 3,770 | 78.38% | 885 | 18.40% | 155 | 3.22% | 2,885 | 59.98% | 4,810 |
| Carbon | 4,719 | 64.67% | 2,353 | 32.25% | 225 | 3.08% | 2,366 | 32.42% | 7,297 |
| Carter | 760 | 88.99% | 75 | 8.78% | 19 | 2.22% | 685 | 80.21% | 854 |
| Cascade | 22,419 | 59.65% | 14,021 | 37.31% | 1,143 | 3.04% | 8,398 | 22.35% | 37,583 |
| Chouteau | 1,885 | 64.25% | 940 | 32.04% | 109 | 3.72% | 945 | 32.21% | 2,934 |
| Custer | 4,208 | 72.46% | 1,385 | 23.85% | 214 | 3.69% | 2,823 | 48.61% | 5,807 |
| Daniels | 778 | 81.81% | 154 | 16.19% | 19 | 2.00% | 624 | 65.62% | 951 |
| Dawson | 3,627 | 78.20% | 894 | 19.28% | 117 | 2.52% | 2,733 | 58.93% | 4,638 |
| Deer Lodge | 2,329 | 47.82% | 2,376 | 48.79% | 165 | 3.39% | -47 | -0.97% | 4,870 |
| Fallon | 1,303 | 86.46% | 163 | 10.82% | 41 | 2.72% | 1,140 | 75.65% | 1,507 |
| Fergus | 4,965 | 73.97% | 1,522 | 22.68% | 225 | 3.35% | 3,443 | 51.30% | 6,712 |
| Flathead | 41,390 | 65.55% | 20,062 | 31.77% | 1,689 | 2.67% | 21,328 | 33.78% | 63,141 |
| Gallatin | 32,695 | 46.77% | 34,938 | 49.98% | 2,267 | 3.24% | -2,243 | -3.21% | 69,900 |
| Garfield | 756 | 94.50% | 39 | 4.88% | 5 | 0.63% | 717 | 89.63% | 800 |
| Glacier | 1,939 | 38.18% | 2,933 | 57.76% | 206 | 4.06% | -994 | -19.57% | 5,078 |
| Golden Valley | 440 | 85.44% | 67 | 13.01% | 8 | 1.55% | 373 | 72.43% | 515 |
| Granite | 1,537 | 70.63% | 579 | 26.61% | 60 | 2.76% | 958 | 44.03% | 2,176 |
| Hill | 3,871 | 56.89% | 2,634 | 38.71% | 299 | 4.39% | 1,237 | 18.18% | 6,804 |
| Jefferson | 5,544 | 66.85% | 2,516 | 30.34% | 233 | 2.81% | 3,028 | 36.51% | 8,293 |
| Judith Basin | 1,051 | 77.68% | 265 | 19.59% | 37 | 2.73% | 786 | 58.09% | 1,353 |
| Lake | 9,880 | 58.42% | 6,510 | 38.50% | 521 | 3.08% | 3,370 | 19.93% | 16,911 |
| Lewis and Clark | 21,479 | 51.11% | 19,085 | 45.41% | 1,461 | 3.48% | 2,394 | 5.70% | 42,025 |
| Liberty | 752 | 76.11% | 214 | 21.66% | 22 | 2.23% | 538 | 54.45% | 988 |
| Lincoln | 8,909 | 75.57% | 2,615 | 22.18% | 265 | 2.25% | 6,294 | 53.39% | 11,789 |
| Madison | 4,615 | 71.42% | 1,689 | 26.14% | 158 | 2.45% | 2,926 | 45.28% | 6,462 |
| McCone | 931 | 86.04% | 129 | 11.92% | 22 | 2.03% | 802 | 74.12% | 1,082 |
| Meagher | 888 | 75.77% | 256 | 21.84% | 28 | 2.39% | 632 | 53.92% | 1,172 |
| Mineral | 2,049 | 72.33% | 689 | 24.32% | 95 | 3.35% | 1,360 | 48.01% | 2,833 |
| Missoula | 27,306 | 37.52% | 42,903 | 58.95% | 2,564 | 3.52% | -15,597 | -21.43% | 72,773 |
| Musselshell | 2,550 | 84.66% | 396 | 13.15% | 66 | 2.19% | 2,154 | 71.51% | 3,012 |
| Park | 6,128 | 52.30% | 5,224 | 44.58% | 365 | 3.12% | 904 | 7.72% | 11,717 |
| Petroleum | 284 | 87.65% | 37 | 11.42% | 3 | 0.93% | 247 | 76.23% | 324 |
| Phillips | 1,753 | 80.08% | 385 | 17.59% | 51 | 2.33% | 1,368 | 62.49% | 2,189 |
| Pondera | 1,972 | 69.14% | 782 | 27.42% | 98 | 3.44% | 1,190 | 41.73% | 2,852 |
| Powder River | 963 | 87.07% | 131 | 11.84% | 12 | 1.08% | 832 | 75.23% | 1,106 |
| Powell | 2,466 | 75.14% | 710 | 21.63% | 106 | 3.23% | 1,756 | 53.50% | 3,282 |
| Prairie | 546 | 79.25% | 122 | 17.71% | 21 | 3.05% | 424 | 61.54% | 689 |
| Ravalli | 20,617 | 68.94% | 8,485 | 28.37% | 803 | 2.69% | 12,132 | 40.57% | 29,905 |
| Richland | 4,387 | 82.63% | 778 | 14.65% | 144 | 2.71% | 3,609 | 67.98% | 5,309 |
| Roosevelt | 2,055 | 52.50% | 1,680 | 42.92% | 179 | 4.57% | 375 | 9.58% | 3,914 |
| Rosebud | 2,466 | 66.77% | 1,095 | 29.65% | 132 | 3.57% | 1,371 | 37.12% | 3,693 |
| Sanders | 6,150 | 76.19% | 1,705 | 21.12% | 217 | 2.69% | 4,445 | 55.07% | 8,072 |
| Sheridan | 1,321 | 69.09% | 509 | 26.62% | 82 | 4.29% | 812 | 42.47% | 1,912 |
| Silver Bow | 8,110 | 44.50% | 9,386 | 51.50% | 730 | 4.01% | -1,276 | -7.00% | 18,226 |
| Stillwater | 4,699 | 79.56% | 1,056 | 17.88% | 151 | 2.56% | 3,643 | 61.68% | 5,906 |
| Sweet Grass | 1,789 | 75.14% | 525 | 22.05% | 67 | 2.81% | 1,264 | 53.09% | 2,381 |
| Teton | 2,533 | 70.99% | 927 | 25.98% | 108 | 3.03% | 1,606 | 45.01% | 3,568 |
| Toole | 1,571 | 76.78% | 415 | 20.28% | 60 | 2.93% | 1,156 | 56.50% | 2,046 |
| Treasure | 367 | 83.03% | 57 | 12.90% | 18 | 4.07% | 310 | 70.14% | 442 |
| Valley | 3,019 | 74.01% | 935 | 22.92% | 125 | 3.06% | 2,084 | 51.09% | 4,079 |
| Wheatland | 843 | 77.62% | 209 | 19.24% | 34 | 3.13% | 634 | 58.38% | 1,086 |
| Wibaux | 463 | 84.80% | 71 | 13.00% | 12 | 2.20% | 392 | 71.79% | 546 |
| Yellowstone | 50,460 | 62.00% | 28,392 | 34.88% | 2,541 | 3.12% | 22,068 | 27.11% | 81,393 |
| Totals | 352,079 | 58.39% | 231,906 | 38.46% | 19,005 | 3.15% | 120,173 | 19.93% | 602,990 |
Swing by county
County flipsDemocratic Hold | Republican Hold Gain from Democratic
|
Trump won both congressional districts.[40]
| District | Trump | Harris | Representative |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1st | 54% | 43% | Ryan Zinke |
| 2nd | 63% | 34% | Matt Rosendale (118th Congress) |
| Troy Downing (119th Congress) |
Although somewhat less conservative than its neighboring states, Montana – a sparsely populated state in theNorthern Rockies andGreat Plains – has not been won by a Democratic presidential candidate sinceBill Clinton narrowly did so in1992, neither has it been competitive at the presidential level since DemocratBarack Obama came up less than 3 points shy of carrying the state in2008. With the exception of 2008, the state has been carried by Republican presidential candidates by double digits since2000.
However, despite the state's strong Republican lean, Montana received significant attention from both parties due to the simultaneousU.S. Senate race between incumbent DemocratJon Tester and Republican challengerTim Sheehy, which was seen as competitive but favoring Sheehy, who ended up winning by over seven points. Trump's victory is seen to have helped Sheehy win via thecoattail effect, thus flipping Montana's last remaining Democratic statewide office into the Republican column.
Trump gained nearly everywhere in the state but especially in counties with highNative American populations, such asBig Horn County,Glacier County, andBlaine County; he was the first Republican presidential candidate to win Big Horn sinceRonald Reagan in1980. In addition, his 9.6% margin of victory inRoosevelt County is the best for a presidential Republican since Reagan's 10.5% in1984; the historically-Democratic county, home to much of theFort Peck Reservation, has voted for Trump in all three of his election bids. WithClallam County, Washington voting for Harris, Blaine County now holds the longest active bellwether streak in the nation, having last voted for a losing presidential candidate in1988, its only miss outside of its inaugural election in1912. Trump also came within just 47 votes of winningDeer Lodge County, thus giving the best performance for a Republican there sinceCalvin Coolidge last won the county in1924.
Partisan clients
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