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2024 United States presidential election in Louisiana

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Main article:2024 United States presidential election
2024 United States presidential election in Louisiana

← 2020November 5, 20242028 →
Turnout66.3%Decrease
 
NomineeDonald TrumpKamala Harris
PartyRepublicanDemocratic
Home stateFloridaCalifornia
Running mateJD VanceTim Walz
Electoral vote80
Popular vote1,208,505766,870
Percentage60.22%38.21%

Parish results
Congressional district results
Precinct results

Trump

  40–50%
  50–60%
  60–70%
  70–80%
  80–90%
  90–100%

Harris

  40–50%
  50–60%
  60–70%
  70–80%
  80–90%
  90–100%

Tie/No Votes

  
  


President before election

Joe Biden
Democratic

Elected President

Donald Trump
Republican

Elections in Louisiana
Presidential elections
Presidential primaries
Democratic
2000
2004
2008
2012
2016
2020
2024
Republican
2004
2008
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2016
2020
2024
U.S. Senate elections
U.S. House of Representatives elections
Government

The2024 United States presidential election in Louisiana was held on Tuesday, November 5, 2024, as part of the2024 United States presidential election, which all 50 states and theDistrict of Columbia participated in.Louisiana voters chose electors to represent them in theElectoral College via a popular vote. The state of Louisiana has eight electoral votes in the Electoral College. This was following thereapportionment due to the2020 United States census in which the state neither gained nor lost a seat.[1]

The Republican former PresidentDonald Trump ran for re-election to a second non-consecutive term after his defeat in the2020 election.[2] Trump defeated the Democratic nominee, Vice PresidentKamala Harris, in Louisiana by a margin of 22%, an increase of 3.4% compared to 2020.

Primary elections

[edit]

Republican primary

[edit]
Main article:2024 Louisiana Republican presidential primary

The Louisiana Republican primary was held on March 23, 2024.

Louisiana Republican primary, March 22, 2024[3][4]
CandidateVotesPercentageActual delegate count
BoundUnboundTotal
Donald Trump172,50389.77%4747
Nikki Haley (withdrawn)13,1236.83%
Ron DeSantis (withdrawn)3,0221.57%
Chris Christie (withdrawn)1,2810.67%
Vivek Ramaswamy (withdrawn)5950.31%
Ryan Binkley (withdrawn)5800.30%
Asa Hutchinson (withdrawn)5190.27%
Rachel Swift3350.17%
David Stuckenberg2100.11%
Total:192,168100.00%4747

Democratic primary

[edit]
Main article:2024 Louisiana Democratic presidential primary

The Louisiana Democratic primary was held on March 23, 2024, alongside the primary inMissouri.

Louisiana Democratic primary, March 22, 2024[5]
CandidateVotesPercentageActual delegate count
PledgedUnpledgedTotal
Joe Biden (incumbent)143,38086.1%48
Marianne Williamson7,8984.7%
Dean Phillips (withdrawn)4,3512.6%
Stephen Lyons (withdrawn)3,7702.3%
Bob Ely2,6521.6%
Frankie Lozada (withdrawn)2,2451.4%
Armando Perez-Serrato1,2000.7%
Cenk Uygur (withdrawn)1,1140.7%
Total:166,610100.0%48652

General election

[edit]

Electoral slates

[edit]

The voters ofLouisiana cast their ballots for electors, or representatives to theElectoral College, rather than directly for the President and Vice President. Louisiana is allocated eight electors because it has sixcongressional districts and twosenators. All candidates who appear on the ballot must submit a list of eight electors who pledge to vote for their candidate and their running mate. Whoever wins the most votes in the state is awarded all eight electoral votes. Their chosen electors then vote for president and vice president. Although electors are pledged to their candidate and running mate, they are not obligated to vote for them. An elector who votes for someone other than their candidate is known as afaithless elector. There are no laws on the books in Louisiana that prohibit or punish faithless electors.[6]

These electors were nominated by each party to vote in the Electoral College should their candidate win the state:[7]

Kamala D. Harris
Tim Walz
Democratic Party
Jill Stein
Ajamu Baraka
Green Party
Chase Oliver
Mike ter Maat
Libertarian Party
Donald Trump
"JD" Vance
Republican Party
Peter Sonski
Lauren Onak
American Solidarity Party
Randall Terry
Stephen Broden
Constitution Party
Mattie Preston
Shannel Connor
Godliness, Truth, Justice
Cornel West
Melina Abdullah
Justice For All
Claudia De la Cruz
Karina Garcia
Party for Socialism and Liberation
Rachele Fruit
Dennis Richter
Socialist Workers Party
Robert F. Kennedy, Jr.
Nicole Shanahan
We the People Party
Randal L. Gaines
Helena Moreno
Gian L. Durand
Cedric Richmond
Dustin Granger
Sam Jenkins
Myron Lawson
Antonio Marcel Clayton
David Bryan
Naima Gayles
Billal Jaber
Bart Everson
Keith Korcz
Richard Fowler Mansfield, Jr.
Jeffrey Sykes
John Krause
Michael Dodd
Jonathan Brazzell
Carol Elizabeth Vest
Boyd Wayne Smith
Chantal Saucier
Tyler James Lee Bargenquast
Keith Thompson
Colin Nicol
Christian Gil
Randolph August Bazet, III
Raymond M. Griffin, Jr.
Lloyd A. Harsch
Luke Anthony Dupre
Matthew Kay
Phillipp Jeffrey Bedwell
Carl W. Benedict
Conner Warren
Rebecca Bresowar LeBlanc
Joseph M. Casso
Richard Bresowar
Michael B. Linton
Stewart G. Thompson
Ruth S. Powers
Rebecca Pope
William Shanks
Edwin Shanks, III
Anthony Kipp MarQuize
Mary C. Shanks
Farley J. Painter
Mona Proctor
Evan Hornsby
Therese Atwell
Brenda D. Montgomery
Burney Mitchell
Jerleesa Anderson
Bennie Scott
Linda Roy
Ronald Lee Harvill
Eugene Blackwell
Wanda Griffin
Avery D. Wilson
Jessica LeVee White
Sharon Breaux
Megan Colette Gaffney
Stephen James DeYoung
Robert Cruz
Brianna Carter
Betty Selmon
Annalise Vidrine
J. Brian Roberts
Cecilia Hammond
Devorah Levy-Pearlman
Clayton Wilkerson
Ian W. Hazleton
Debra Williams
David Jewel Isaacs
Vernon W. Bush
Edward Glen Kenny
Maria Garcia Ortiz
Terry M. Mogilles
Maria Victoria Duval
Christopher Glenn West
William Stratton, Jr.
Vera Faye Blake
Connie Sampognaro
Joseph Wayne Price, Jr.
Daniel David Bristol
Erica Geldersma
Caleb Clotiaux
Shirlee Ann Owen
Taylor Cabler
"Bobby" Smith

Predictions

[edit]
SourceRankingAs of
Cook Political Report[8]Solid RDecember 19, 2023
Inside Elections[9]Solid RApril 26, 2023
Sabato's Crystal Ball[10]Safe RJune 29, 2023
Decision Desk HQ/The Hill[11]Safe RDecember 14, 2023
CNalysis[12]Solid RDecember 30, 2023
CNN[13]Solid RJanuary 14, 2024
The Economist[14]Safe RJune 12, 2024
538[15]Solid RAugust 26, 2024
RCP[16]Solid RJune 26, 2024
NBC News[17]Safe ROctober 6, 2024

Polling

[edit]
Hypothetical polling with Donald Trump and Joe Biden

Donald Trump vs. Joe Biden

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size[a]
Margin
of error
Donald
Trump
Republican
Joe
Biden
Democratic
Other /
Undecided
Faucheux Strategies[18][A]April 22–26, 2024800 (RV)± 3.5%52%38%10%
John Zogby Strategies[19][B]April 13–21, 2024501 (LV)54%39%7%
Echelon Insights[20][C]August 31 – September 7, 2022506 (LV)± 6.5%51%36%13%

Donald Trump vs. Joe Biden vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Cornel West vs. Jill Stein

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size[a]
Margin
of error
Donald
Trump
Republican
Joe
Biden
Democratic
Robert
Kennedy Jr
Independent
Cornel
West
Independent
Jill
Stein
Green
Other /
Undecided
Faucheux Strategies[18][A]April 22–26, 2024800 (RV)± 3.5%48%33%10%2%1%6%
Hypothetical polling with other candidates

Donald Trump vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr.

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size[a]
Margin
of error
Donald
Trump
Republican
Robert
Kennedy Jr.
Independent
Other /
Undecided
John Zogby Strategies[19][B]April 13–21, 2024501 (LV)51%36%13%

Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Joe Biden

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size[a]
Margin
of error
Robert
Kennedy Jr.
Independent
Joe
Biden
Democratic
Other /
Undecided
John Zogby Strategies[19][B]April 13–21, 2024501 (LV)51%35%14%

Ron DeSantis vs. Joe Biden

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size[a]
Margin
of error
Ron
DeSantis
Republican
Joe
Biden
Democratic
Other /
Undecided
Echelon Insights[20][C]August 31 – September 7, 2022506 (LV)± 6.5%46%33%21%

Results

[edit]
2024 United States presidential election in Louisiana[21]
PartyCandidateVotes%±%
Republican1,208,50560.22%Increase1.76%
Democratic766,87038.21%Decrease1.64%
Green7,1380.36%N/A
Libertarian6,8350.34%Decrease0.67%
We the People6,6410.33%N/A
Godliness, Truth, Justice
  • Mattie Preston
  • Shannel Conner
2,8570.14%N/A
Justice For All2,6230.13%N/A
American Solidarity
2,2400.11%Decrease0.01%
Socialism and Liberation
1,4810.07%Increase0.02%
Constitution1,4240.07%Increase0.03%
Socialist Workers
3610.02%Steady
Total votes2,006,975100.00%N/A

By parish

[edit]
ParishDonald Trump
Republican
Kamala Harris
Democratic
Various candidates
Other parties
MarginTotal
#%#%#%#%
Acadia21,78381.52%4,69517.57%2420.91%17,08863.95%26,720
Allen7,00380.03%1,66118.98%870.99%5,34261.05%8,751
Ascension41,31966.14%20,11332.19%1,0411.67%21,20633.95%62,473
Assumption6,96367.17%3,27331.57%1311.26%3,69035.60%10,367
Avoyelles11,37970.95%4,46027.81%1981.23%6,91943.14%16,037
Beauregard13,50485.07%2,19213.81%1781.12%11,31271.26%15,874
Bienville3,66058.50%2,53140.46%651.04%1,12918.04%6,256
Bossier37,10571.04%14,46727.70%6601.26%22,63843.34%52,232
Caddo44,47146.96%48,86451.60%1,3641.44%-4,393-4.64%94,699
Calcasieu56,06469.04%23,91829.46%1,2191.50%32,14639.58%81,201
Caldwell3,72485.93%58013.38%300.69%3,14472.55%4,334
Cameron3,12092.80%2196.51%230.68%2,90186.29%3,362
Catahoula3,25874.93%1,06024.38%300.69%2,19850.55%4,348
Claiborne3,52260.56%2,23938.50%550.95%1,28322.06%5,816
Concordia4,97464.14%2,69834.79%831.07%2,27629.35%7,755
DeSoto9,35967.27%4,42631.81%1280.92%4,93335.46%13,913
East Baton Rouge82,72043.39%103,82054.46%4,1032.15%-21,100-11.07%190,643
East Carroll93140.37%1,33858.02%371.60%-407-17.65%2,306
East Feliciana6,02060.52%3,80938.29%1181.19%2,21122.23%9,947
Evangeline10,48373.95%3,52624.87%1671.18%6,95749.08%14,176
Franklin6,52474.15%2,19624.96%780.89%4,32849.19%8,798
Grant7,92587.88%99611.04%971.08%6,92976.84%9,018
Iberia19,51166.52%9,50432.40%3161.08%10,00734.12%29,331
Iberville7,61649.60%7,50348.87%2351.53%1130.73%15,354
Jackson5,29173.22%1,85225.63%831.15%3,43947.59%7,226
Jefferson98,81055.45%75,73142.50%3,6642.06%23,07912.95%178,205
Jefferson Davis11,47879.94%2,69918.80%1811.26%8,77961.14%14,358
Lafayette72,00764.82%37,17033.46%1,9091.72%34,83731.36%111,086
Lafourche34,46180.43%7,86418.35%5201.21%26,59762.08%42,845
LaSalle6,02390.98%5468.25%510.77%5,47782.73%6,620
Lincoln11,24861.95%6,62736.50%2821.55%4,62125.45%18,157
Livingston55,10183.61%9,96515.12%8401.27%45,13668.49%65,906
Madison1,84646.24%2,09452.45%521.30%-248-6.21%3,992
Morehouse5,96159.04%4,00839.69%1281.27%1,95319.35%10,097
Natchitoches9,10060.51%5,74038.16%2001.33%3,36022.35%15,040
Orleans24,11915.16%130,74982.16%4,2622.68%-106,630-67.00%159,130
Ouachita40,80863.33%22,84535.45%7831.22%17,96327.88%64,436
Plaquemines6,80368.41%3,02330.40%1191.20%3,78038.01%9,945
Pointe Coupee7,31963.26%4,13235.71%1191.03%3,18727.55%11,570
Rapides36,17167.74%16,53730.97%6871.29%19,63436.77%53,395
Red River2,33762.74%1,32135.46%671.80%1,01627.28%3,725
Richland6,35469.12%2,73229.72%1071.16%3,62239.40%9,193
Sabine8,61384.69%1,48814.63%690.68%7,12570.06%10,170
St. Bernard11,03363.80%5,96734.51%2921.69%5,06629.29%17,292
St. Charles17,44365.37%8,81233.02%4301.61%8,63132.35%26,685
St. Helena2,80448.81%2,84849.57%931.62%-44-0.76%5,745
St. James5,90250.06%5,79249.13%950.81%1100.93%11,789
St. John the Baptist6,55734.83%12,04363.97%2271.21%-5,486-29.14%18,827
St. Landry21,81258.88%14,83340.04%3981.07%6,97918.84%37,043
St. Martin17,46669.85%7,28429.13%2561.02%10,18240.72%25,006
St. Mary13,67165.42%7,01133.55%2151.03%6,66031.87%20,897
St. Tammany98,37771.09%37,77727.30%2,2301.61%60,60043.79%138,384
Tangipahoa37,50068.05%16,88630.64%7181.30%20,61437.41%55,104
Tensas1,09351.36%1,00247.09%331.55%914.27%2,128
Terrebonne31,11575.29%9,70223.48%5101.23%21,41351.81%41,327
Union8,17678.05%2,20621.06%930.89%5,97056.99%10,475
Vermilion21,51081.39%4,63717.55%2821.07%16,87363.84%26,429
Vernon13,47483.44%2,51315.56%1621.00%10,96167.88%16,149
Washington12,84669.61%5,41129.32%1981.07%7,43540.29%18,455
Webster10,96567.66%5,05331.18%1871.15%5,91236.48%16,205
West Baton Rouge7,62755.12%6,00843.42%2011.45%1,61911.70%13,836
West Carroll3,98686.60%57812.56%390.85%3,40874.04%4,603
West Feliciana3,92365.30%2,00433.36%811.35%1,91931.94%6,008
Winn4,43776.75%1,29222.35%520.90%3,14554.40%5,781
Totals1,208,50560.22%766,87038.21%31,6001.57%441,63522.01%2,006,975

Parishes that flipped from Democratic to Republican

[edit]
Swing by parish
Legend
  •   Democratic — +0-2.5%
  •   Republican — +0-2.5%
  •   Republican — +2.5-5%
  •   Republican — +5-7.5%
  •   Republican — +7.5-10%
  •   Republican — +10-12.5%
Parish flips
Legend
  • Democratic

      Hold

    Republican

      Hold
      Gain from Democratic

By congressional district

[edit]

Trump won four of six congressional districts.[22]

DistrictTrumpHarrisRepresentative
1st68.16%29.99%Steve Scalise
2nd33.35%64.70%Troy Carter
3rd71.84%26.82%Clay Higgins
4th75.57%23.23%Mike Johnson
5th67.45%31.05%Julia Letlow
6th41.75%56.66%Garret Graves (118th Congress)
Cleo Fields (119th Congress)

Analysis

[edit]

As aDeep Southern state located largely within theBible Belt, Louisiana has a conservative voting pattern, with the onlyDemocrats to carry the state's electoral votes afterFranklin D. Roosevelt beingAdlai Stevenson II in hisfirst bid,John F. Kennedy, fellowSouthernerJimmy Carter in hisfirst bid, andBill Clinton of neighboringArkansas.Republicans have won the state in every presidential election sinceGeorge W. Bush of neighboringTexas did in2000, and have done so by double-digit margins since Bush's2004re-election. This was the first election since 2008 in which any parish flipped parties.

This was the first presidential election in Louisiana since1984 when a candidate received over 60% of the statewide vote. Trump became the first Republican to win a majority-African AmericanTensas Parish sinceGeorge H.W. Bush in1988, as well as the first sinceRichard Nixon in1972 to achieve likewise in the slimly majority-minority[23] parishes ofIberville andSt. James. This came as Republicans have found relative success among the African-American community in the state, winning the mayoralties of heavily blackShreveport a year prior andBaton Rouge at the same time as Trump's victory. This has been attributed to the more socially conservative character of rural and southern African-American voters, who had shifted massively towards Republicans in various previous state elections.[24]

See also

[edit]

Notes

[edit]
  1. ^abcdeKey:
    A – all adults
    RV – registered voters
    LV – likely voters
    V – unclear
  2. ^Replacement forButch Ware, Stein's vice presidential nominee.

Partisan clients

  1. ^abPoll commissioned byThe Times-Picayune/The New Orleans Advocate
  2. ^abcPoll conducted forKennedy's campaign
  3. ^abPoll sponsored by NetChoice

References

[edit]
  1. ^Wang, Hansi; Jin, Connie; Levitt, Zach (April 26, 2021)."Here's How The 1st 2020 Census Results Changed Electoral College, House Seats".NPR.Archived from the original on August 19, 2021. RetrievedAugust 20, 2021.
  2. ^Orr, Gabby (November 16, 2022)."Former President Donald Trump announces a White House bid for 2024".CNN.com. RetrievedOctober 8, 2023.
  3. ^"Louisiana Presidential Primary". The AP. RetrievedMarch 22, 2024.
  4. ^"Louisiana Republican Presidential Nominating Process".voterportal.sos.la.gov. March 23, 2024. RetrievedApril 24, 2024.
  5. ^"Louisiana Presidential Primary". The AP. April 16, 2024. RetrievedMay 3, 2024.
  6. ^"Faithless Elector State Laws".FairVote. August 1, 2024. RetrievedAugust 1, 2024.
  7. ^"Candidate Inquiry".LA SOS Voter Portal. RetrievedAugust 1, 2024.
  8. ^"2024 CPR Electoral College Ratings".cookpolitical.com.Cook Political Report. December 19, 2023. RetrievedJanuary 11, 2024.
  9. ^"Presidential Ratings".insideelections.com.Inside Elections. April 26, 2023. RetrievedJanuary 11, 2024.
  10. ^"2024 Electoral College ratings".centerforpolitics.org.University of Virginia Center for Politics. June 29, 2023. RetrievedJanuary 11, 2024.
  11. ^"2024 presidential predictions".elections2024.thehill.com/.The Hill. December 14, 2023. RetrievedJanuary 11, 2024.
  12. ^"2024 Presidential Forecast".projects.cnalysis.com/.CNalysis. December 30, 2023. RetrievedJanuary 11, 2024.
  13. ^"Electoral College map 2024: Road to 270".CNN. RetrievedJanuary 14, 2024.
  14. ^"Trump v Biden: The Economist's presidential election prediction model".The Economist. RetrievedJune 12, 2024.
  15. ^Morris, G. Elliott (August 27, 2024)."2024 Election Forecast".FiveThirtyEight. Archived fromthe original on June 11, 2024. RetrievedJune 11, 2024.
  16. ^"2024 RCP Electoral College Map".RealClearPolitics. June 26, 2024. RetrievedJune 26, 2024.
  17. ^"Presidential Election Preview 2024".NBC News.
  18. ^ab"LA statewide poll report April 2024 - Faucheux Strategies"(PDF).Faucheux Strategies. May 10, 2024.
  19. ^abc"Biden Is the Real Spoiler, Kennedy Only Candidate Who Can Beat Trump".Kennedy24. May 1, 2024.
  20. ^abChavez, Krista (September 13, 2022)."New National Poll: 89% of Americans Say Congress Should Focus on Addressing Inflation, Not Breaking Up Tech".NetChoice.
  21. ^"Official Election Results - Presidential Electors".Louisiana Secretary of State. RetrievedNovember 30, 2024.
  22. ^https://davesredistricting.org/maps#viewmap::2ecbe5cd-461e-41e9-a954-2368bbe8b0a2
  23. ^"DRA 2020".Daves Redistricting. RetrievedFebruary 15, 2025.
  24. ^Thomas, Armin (February 17, 2024)."What Happened With Black Voters in Louisiana?".Split Ticket. RetrievedJuly 16, 2025.
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