Movatterモバイル変換


[0]ホーム

URL:


Jump to content
WikipediaThe Free Encyclopedia
Search

2024 United States presidential election in Idaho

From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

Main article:2024 United States presidential election
2024 United States presidential election in Idaho

← 2020November 5, 20242028 →
Turnout77.8% (of registered voters)Decrease[1]
 
NomineeDonald J. TrumpKamala Harris
PartyRepublicanDemocratic
Home stateFloridaCalifornia
Running mateJD VanceTim Walz
Electoral vote40
Popular vote605,246274,972
Percentage66.87%30.38%

County results
Congressional district results
Precinct results

Trump

  40–50%
  50–60%
  60–70%
  70–80%
  80–90%
  90–100%

Harris

  40–50%
  50–60%
  60–70%
  70–80%
  80–90%

Tie/No Votes

  
  


President before election

Joe Biden
Democratic

Elected President

Donald J. Trump
Republican

Elections in Idaho
Presidential elections
Presidential primaries
Democratic
2000
2004
2008
2012
2016
2020
2024
Republican
2004
2008
2012
2016
2020
2024
U.S. Senate elections
U.S. House of Representatives elections

The2024 United States presidential election in Idaho took place on Tuesday, November 5, 2024, as part of the2024 United States presidential election in which all 50 states plus theDistrict of Columbia participated.Idaho voters chose electors to represent them in theElectoral College via a popular vote. The state of Idaho has 4 electoral votes in the Electoral College, followingreapportionment due to the2020 United States census in which the state neither gained nor lost a seat.[2]

Prior to the election, all major news organizations considered Idaho a solidred state; a sparsely populatedMountain state with an overwhelminglyWhite populace, a largemormon population, and anevangelical predominance, Idaho is one of the most staunchly conservative states in the U.S., with the only Democratic presidential candidate to carry the state afterHarry Truman in1948 beinglandslide winnerLyndon B. Johnson in1964, and Republicans having never won the state's electoral votes by less than 13% since.

As expected, RepublicanDonald J. Trump overwhelmingly won Idaho, taking 66.9% of the vote to DemocratKamala Harris' 30.4% and winning the state by 36.5%, well above his 30.8% in2020 and his 31.8% in2016, and the widest presidential margin of victory in Idaho sinceGeorge W. Bush's 38.1% in2004. Idaho was Trump's third strongest state nationwide, only behindWest Virginia and neighboringWyoming.

This was the first election in whichTeton County, Idaho voted for a Democrat who lost the presidential election.

Primary elections

[edit]

TheIdaho Legislature passed HB 138 during the 2023 legislative session, resulting in the elimination of the state-run primary for all parties. The legislature did not restore the state-run primary by the October 1 deadline, and both the major parties in the state opted to operate and fundfirehouse nominations for president.[3]

Republican primary

[edit]
Main article:2024 Idaho Republican presidential primary

The Idaho Republican primary was held on March 2, 2024, alongside primaries inHawaii,Mississippi,Missouri, andWashington.

Idaho Republican caucus, March 2, 2024[4][5]
CandidateVotesPercentageActual delegate count
BoundUnboundTotal
Donald Trump33,60384.89%32032
Nikki Haley5,22113.18%000
Ron DeSantis (withdrawn)5341.35%000
Vivek Ramaswamy (withdrawn)950.24%000
Chris Christie (withdrawn)910.23%000
Ryan Binkley (withdrawn)400.10%000
Total39,584100.00%32032

Democratic caucuses

[edit]
Main article:2024 Idaho Democratic presidential caucuses

The Idaho Democratic presidential caucuses were held on May 23, 2024.

Idaho Democratic caucus, May 23, 2024[6]
CandidateVotesPercentageActual delegate count
PledgedUnpledgedTotal
Joe Biden (incumbent)2,29795.2%23
Marianne Williamson793.3%
Dean Phillips (withdrawn)140.6%
David Olscamp140.6%
Jason Palmer (withdrawn)50.2%
Armando Perez-Serrato30.1%
Total:2,412100.0%23427

General election

[edit]

Candidates

[edit]

The official list of certified candidates was finalized byIdaho secretary of statePhil McGrane on September 4, 2024, with the following nine candidates qualifying:[7]

Despite Terry being the nominee of the national Constitution Party, the state party dissented and chose to nominateJoel Skousen. Terry then petitioned to appear on the ballot as an independent candidate.[8]

Predictions

[edit]
SourceRankingAs of
Cook Political Report[9]Solid RDecember 19, 2023
Inside Elections[10]Solid RApril 26, 2023
Sabato's Crystal Ball[11]Safe RJune 29, 2023
Decision Desk HQ/The Hill[12]Safe RDecember 14, 2023
CNalysis[13]Solid RDecember 30, 2023
CNN[14]Solid RJanuary 14, 2024
The Economist[15]Safe RJune 12, 2024
538[16]Solid RJune 11, 2024
RCP[17]Solid RJune 26, 2024
NBC News[18]Safe ROctober 6, 2024

Polling

[edit]
Hypothetical polling with Donald J. Trump and Joe Biden

Donald J. Trump vs. Joe Biden

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size[a]
Margin
of error
Donald J.
Trump
Republican
Joe
Biden
Democratic
Other /
Undecided
July 21, 2024Joe Bidenwithdraws from the race.
John Zogby Strategies[19][A]April 13–21, 2024309 (LV)60%30%10%
Emerson College[20]October 1–4, 2023490 (RV)± 4.4%55%26%19%
Hypothetical polling with other candidates

Donald J. Trump vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr.

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size[a]
Margin
of error
Donald J.
Trump
Republican
Robert
Kennedy Jr.
Independent
Other /
Undecided
John Zogby Strategies[19][A]April 13–21, 2024309 (LV)54%32%14%

Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Joe Biden

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size[a]
Margin
of error
Robert
Kennedy Jr.
Independent
Joe
Biden
Democratic
Other /
Undecided
John Zogby Strategies[19][A]April 13–21, 2024309 (LV)60%25%15%

Results

[edit]
2024 United States presidential election in Idaho[21]
PartyCandidateVotes%±%
Republican605,24666.87%Increase 3.03%
Democratic274,97230.38%Decrease 2.69%
Independent12,8121.42%N/A
Libertarian4,4620.49%Decrease 1.40%
Green2,9730.33%Increase 0.28%
Constitution1,5770.17%Decrease 0.05%
Socialism and Liberation1,2300.14%Increase 0.13%
Independent1,0260.11%N/A
Independent
5140.1%N/A
American SolidarityPeter Sonski (write-in)
Lauren Onak (write-in)
2420.03%Increase 0.01%
IndependentOther
(write-in)
30.00%Steady
Total votes905,057100.00%N/A

By county

[edit]
County[22]Donald J. Trump
Republican
Kamala Harris
Democratic
Various candidates
Other parties
MarginTotal
#%#%#%#%
Ada143,75953.76%116,11643.42%7,5442.82%27,64310.34%267,419
Adams2,03775.98%57721.52%672.50%1,46054.46%2,681
Bannock24,32960.86%14,30635.79%1,3413.35%10,02325.07%39,976
Bear Lake2,90887.46%34610.41%712.13%2,56277.05%3,325
Benewah4,09479.57%93518.17%1162.26%3,15961.40%5,145
Bingham16,18878.39%3,87818.78%5852.83%12,31059.61%20,651
Blaine4,28132.71%8,42464.36%3842.93%-4,143-31.65%13,089
Boise3,72775.91%1,06521.69%1182.40%2,66254.22%4,910
Bonner21,35271.87%7,65025.75%7082.38%13,70246.12%29,710
Bonneville40,05370.97%14,45825.62%1,9253.41%25,59545.35%56,436
Boundary5,79481.49%1,14516.10%1712.41%4,64965.39%7,110
Butte1,26884.87%18512.38%412.75%1,08372.49%1,494
Camas54775.14%15321.02%283.84%39454.12%728
Canyon72,75572.01%25,66925.41%2,6062.58%47,08646.60%101,030
Caribou2,90684.09%44512.88%1053.03%2,46171.21%3,456
Cassia7,95983.27%1,35914.22%2402.51%6,60069.05%9,558
Clark28084.08%5015.02%30.90%23069.06%333
Clearwater3,55080.32%77417.51%962.17%2,77662.81%4,420
Custer1,99875.40%58622.11%662.49%1,41253.29%2,650
Elmore7,79173.00%2,61124.47%2702.53%5,18048.53%10,672
Franklin6,27987.40%7039.79%2022.81%5,57677.61%7,184
Fremont5,64582.98%95414.02%2043.00%4,69168.96%6,803
Gem8,70781.99%1,69916.00%2142.01%7,00865.99%10,620
Gooding4,67679.01%1,10018.59%1422.40%3,57660.42%5,918
Idaho8,14882.58%1,46014.80%2592.62%6,68867.78%9,867
Jefferson13,48185.21%1,89111.95%4482.84%11,59073.26%15,820
Jerome6,01275.66%1,74221.92%1922.42%4,27053.74%7,946
Kootenai72,05974.78%22,11322.95%2,1932.27%49,94651.83%96,365
Latah10,66952.14%9,03944.18%7533.68%1,6307.97%20,461
Lemhi3,71676.24%1,03821.30%1202.46%2,67854.94%4,874
Lewis1,50381.42%30516.52%382.06%1,19864.90%1,846
Lincoln1,46676.47%39220.45%593.08%1,07456.02%1,917
Madison13,92580.20%2,76715.94%6713.86%11,15864.26%17,363
Minidoka6,40180.54%1,37317.27%1742.19%5,02863.27%7,948
Nez Perce13,70768.08%5,92829.44%5002.48%7,77938.64%20,135
Oneida2,11986.24%25310.30%853.46%1,86675.94%2,457
Owyhee4,10182.85%75615.27%931.88%3,34567.58%4,950
Payette9,45880.42%2,06417.55%2392.03%7,39462.87%11,761
Power2,14671.04%78525.98%902.98%1,36145.06%3,021
Shoshone4,50073.39%1,47224.01%1602.60%3,02849.38%6,132
Teton3,00544.86%3,46351.70%2303.44%-458-6.84%6,698
Twin Falls27,30473.04%9,06424.25%1,0152.71%18,24048.79%37,383
Valley4,21458.20%2,86939.63%1572.17%1,34518.57%7,240
Washington4,42979.73%1,01018.18%1162.09%3,41961.55%5,555
Totals605,24666.87%274,97230.38%24,8392.74%330,27436.49%905,057

County that flipped from Democratic to Republican

[edit]
Swing by county
Legend
  •   Democratic — +2.5-5%
  •   Democratic — +0-2.5%
  •   Republican — +0-2.5%
  •   Republican — +2.5-5%
  •   Republican — +5-7.5%
  •   Republican — +7.5-10%
  •   Republican — +10-12.5%
County flips
Legend
  • Democratic

      Hold

    Republican

      Hold
      Gain from Democratic

By congressional district

[edit]

Trump won both congressional districts.[23]

DistrictTrumpHarrisRepresentative
1st71.29%26.24%Russ Fulcher
2nd61.83%35.11%Mike Simpson

Analysis

[edit]

Trump flipped thePanhandle county ofLatah, anchored by thecollege town ofMoscow, becoming the first Republican to win the county since Bush in 2004; and with nearly an 8% margin of victory, having the best showing for a presidential candidate there since Bush's 16.3% margin in2000. He also became the first Republican to win the White House without winningTeton County since it was established in 1915. He also recovered his margins in larger urban areas, winningAda County — home to the state capital and largest cityBoise — by a double-digit margin for the first time in his electoral history.

See also

[edit]

Notes

[edit]
  1. ^abcKey:
    A – all adults
    RV – registered voters
    LV – likely voters
    V – unclear
  2. ^abListed on the ballot without party affiliation.
  3. ^Replacement forButch Ware, Stein's vice presidential nominee.
  4. ^abRandall Terry was nominated by the nationalConstitution Party, though the state party nominated Joel Skousen.

Partisan clients

  1. ^abcPoll conducted forKennedy's campaign

References

[edit]
  1. ^"2024 General Election".State of Idaho Elections Department. RetrievedFebruary 7, 2025.
  2. ^Wang, Hansi; Jin, Connie; Levitt, Zach (April 26, 2021)."Here's How The 1st 2020 Census Results Changed Electoral College, House Seats".NPR.Archived from the original on August 19, 2021. RetrievedFebruary 7, 2023.
  3. ^Corbin, Clark (October 16, 2023)."Idaho will have a presidential caucus in 2024 — not a primary. Here's how they differ. • Idaho Capital Sun".Idaho Capital Sun. RetrievedJuly 15, 2024.
  4. ^"Declared 2024 Republican Presidential Candidates".Idaho Republican Party. RetrievedDecember 8, 2023.[failed verification]
  5. ^"Idaho primary results".Associated Press. March 2, 2024. RetrievedMarch 2, 2024.
  6. ^"Idaho Democratic Caucus Results". NY Times. RetrievedMay 23, 2024.
  7. ^Corbin, Clark (September 4, 2024)."Nine presidential candidates qualify for Idaho's 2024 general election ballot".States Newsroom. RetrievedSeptember 9, 2024.
  8. ^Pruett, Greg (August 5, 2024)."Constitution Party of Idaho Holds Convention, Selects Presidential Nominee".Idaho Dispatch. RetrievedSeptember 9, 2024.
  9. ^"2024 CPR Electoral College Ratings".cookpolitical.com.Cook Political Report. December 19, 2023. RetrievedJanuary 11, 2024.
  10. ^"Presidential Ratings".insideelections.com.Inside Elections. April 26, 2023. RetrievedJanuary 11, 2024.
  11. ^"2024 Electoral College ratings".centerforpolitics.org.University of Virginia Center for Politics. June 29, 2023. RetrievedJanuary 11, 2024.
  12. ^"2024 presidential predictions".elections2024.thehill.com/.The Hill. December 14, 2023. RetrievedJanuary 11, 2024.
  13. ^"2024 Presidential Forecast".projects.cnalysis.com/.CNalysis. December 30, 2023. RetrievedJanuary 11, 2024.
  14. ^"Electoral College map 2024: Road to 270".CNN. RetrievedJanuary 14, 2024.
  15. ^"Trump v Biden: The Economist's presidential election prediction model".The Economist. RetrievedJune 12, 2024.
  16. ^Morris, G. Elliott (June 11, 2024)."2024 Election Forecast".FiveThirtyEight. Archived fromthe original on June 11, 2024. RetrievedJune 11, 2024.
  17. ^"2024 RCP Electoral College Map".RealClearPolitics. June 26, 2024. RetrievedJune 26, 2024.
  18. ^"Presidential Election Preview 2024".NBC News.
  19. ^abc"Biden Is the Real Spoiler, Kennedy Only Candidate Who Can Beat Trump".Kennedy24. May 1, 2024.
  20. ^Mumford, Camille (October 11, 2023)."Idaho 2024 Poll: Housing Affordability is a 'Big Problem' in the Gem State".Emerson Polling.
  21. ^"Canvass Report"(PDF).VoteIdaho.Gov. November 26, 2024. RetrievedNovember 30, 2024.
  22. ^https://uselectionatlas.org/RESULTS/state.php?year=2024&fips=16&f=0&off=0&elect=0
  23. ^https://davesredistricting.org/maps#viewmap::ebc8cec8-b919-4a66-9b42-9cf5bf7e02a1
U.S.
President
U.S.
Senate
U.S.
House

(election
ratings
)
Governors
Lieutenant
governors
Attorneys
general
Secretaries
of state
State
treasurers
State
auditors
Judicial
Other
statewide
elections
State
legislative
Mayors
Local
States and
territories
Ballot
measures
State and district results of the2024 United States presidential election
Electoral map, 2024 election
Retrieved from "https://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=2024_United_States_presidential_election_in_Idaho&oldid=1317676112"
Categories:
Hidden categories:

[8]ページ先頭

©2009-2025 Movatter.jp