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2024 United States presidential election in California

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Main article:2024 United States presidential election
2024 United States presidential election in California
← 2020November 5, 20242028 →
Turnout71.43% (of registered voters)Decrease 9.24pp
59.97% (of eligible voters)Decrease 10.91pp[1]
 
NomineeKamala HarrisDonald Trump
PartyDemocraticRepublican
Home stateCaliforniaFlorida
Running mateTim WalzJD Vance
Electoral vote540
Popular vote9,276,1796,081,697
Percentage58.47%38.33%
County results
Congressional district results
Consolidated precinct results

Harris

  40–50%
  50–60%
  60–70%
  70–80%
  80–90%
  90–100%

Trump

  40–50%
  50–60%
  60–70%
  70–80%

President before election

Joe Biden
Democratic

Elected President

Donald Trump
Republican

Elections in California
U.S. President
U.S. President primary
U.S. Senate
U.S. House of Representatives
Executive
Governor
Lieutenant governor
Secretary of state
Attorney general
Treasurer
Controller
Superintendent
Insurance commissioner
Board of equalization
Legislature
Senate
Assembly
Judiciary
Court of appeals
Elections by year

The2024 United States presidential election in California took place on Tuesday, November 5, 2024, as part of the2024 United States presidential election in which all 50 states plus theDistrict of Columbia participated.California voters chose electors to represent them in theElectoral College via a popular vote. California has 54 electoral votes in the Electoral College, the most in the country.[2]

The most populous state in the union, California is considered a stronglyblue state, having voted Democratic in every presidential election since1992. In these contests, it has supported Democratic candidates by double digits in each of them except for2004, whenJohn Kerry won it by 9.95 percentage points. It was widely expected that California voters would maintain this trend, particularly with Vice PresidentKamala Harris as the Democratic nominee. Harris, a native of California, served as the state's attorney general from 2011 to 2017 and later represented California in the U.S. Senate from 2017 to 2021 before assuming the vice presidency. She is the first Californian to lead a major party presidential ticket sinceRonald Reagan in1984 and the first Democrat from theWestern United States.

Although Kamala Harris won in California by a margin of 20 percentage points, it represented a significant decrease compared to Joe Biden's 29-point victory in the state in 2020. This trend of diminished Democratic voter turnout was also evident in other traditionally Democratic strongholds, includingMassachusetts,New York andIllinois. Harris's performance in California was the worst for a Democratic candidate since2004, failing to receive at least 60% of the vote in the state for the first time since then.

While Trump increased his raw vote total from2020 by about 75,000 votes, Harris lost almost 2 million votes. For example, inLos Angeles County, Harris lost more than 600,000 votes compared to 2020.[3] But Trump also flipped manymajority-Hispanic counties, including 85% HispanicImperial County along theMexico–United States border.

Nonetheless, Harris still outperformed fellow CalifornianAdam Schiff, who ran behind her in the state’s concurrentU.S. Senate race. Despite Trump's performance, Democrats flipped threeU.S. House seats in California in 2024.

Primary elections

[edit]

Democratic primary

[edit]
Main article:2024 California Democratic presidential primary

The California Democratic primary was held onSuper Tuesday, March 5, 2024. President Biden won all 424 pledged delegates with nearly 90% of the vote, the largest share of delegates awarded by any contest in the2024 primaries.

Popular vote share by county
  Biden
  •   80–90%
  •   >90%
California Democratic primary, March 5, 2024[4][5]
CandidateVotesPercentageActual delegate count
BoundUnboundTotal
Joe Biden (incumbent)3,207,68789.1%424424
Marianne Williamson146,3564.1%
Dean Phillips100,2842.8%
Armando Perez-Serrato43,1051.2%
Gabriel Cornejo41,3901.2%
"President" R. Boddie25,4550.7%
Stephen P. Lyons21,0620.6%
Eban Cambridge12,7580.3%
Total (including write-ins):3,598,126100.00%42473497

Theelectors of the Democratic Party are chosen by the candidates who received the most votes in the primary election in their respective congressional district.[6]

Republican primary

[edit]
Main article:2024 California Republican presidential primary

The California Republican primary was held onSuper Tuesday, March 5, 2024. Former presidentDonald Trump was challenged byNikki Haley, the only other major candidate remaining in the Republican primaries. Trump won the state in a landslide, defeating Haley by 60 points and earning all 169 delegates.

The state was the site of the secondRepublican primary debate, held at theRonald Reagan Presidential Library on September 27, 2023.

Popular vote share by county
  Trump
  •   60–70%
  •   70–80%
  •   80–90%
California Republican primary, March 5, 2024[7][8][9]
CandidateVotesPercentageActual delegate count
BoundUnboundTotal
Donald Trump1,962,90579.25%1690169
Nikki Haley431,87617.44%000
Ron DeSantis(withdrawn)35,7171.44%000
Chris Christie(withdrawn)20,2100.82%000
Vivek Ramaswamy(withdrawn)11,1130.45%000
Rachel Swift4,2530.17%000
David Stuckenberg3,9090.16%000
Ryan Binkley(withdrawn)3,5770.14%000
Asa Hutchinson(withdrawn)3,3360.13%000
Total:2,476,896100.00%1690169

The electors of the Republican Party are their nominees for themain offices of the State of California and for Senator at the last two elections as well as their leaders in the state legislature and party committee.[6]

Libertarian primary

[edit]
Main article:2024 Libertarian Party presidential primaries

Charles Ballay was the only candidate to qualify for theLibertarian Party primary ballot.[10]Chase Oliver later qualified as awrite-in candidate.[11]

2024California Libertarian presidential primary
← 2020March 5, 20242028 →
← NC
Ok →
 
CandidateCharles BallayChase Oliver (Write in)
Home stateLouisianaGeorgia
Percentage98.6%1.4%
2024 California Libertarian primary[12]
CandidateVotesPercentage
Charles Ballay21,90698.6%
Chase Oliver (write-in)3131.4%
Total:22,219100.0%

The electors for the Libertarian Party were elected by the state party convention.[6]

Green primary

[edit]
Main article:2024 Green Party presidential primaries

Jill Stein, theGreen Party's nominee for president in2012 and2016, was the only candidate on the California primary ballot, although she was followed by three write-in candidates.[10][11] Stein won the primary and earned all 59 of the state's delegates.

2024 California Green primary[12]
CandidateVotesPercentageDelegates
Jill Stein15,80199.96%59
Matthew Pruden (write-in)30.02%
Jorge Zavala (write-in)30.02%
Davi (write-in)10.00%
Total:15,808100.0%59

Peace and Freedom primary

[edit]
Peace and Freedom primary results by county:
  Claudia De la Cruz
  •   100%
      80–85%
      75–80%
      70–75%
      65–70%
      60–65%
      55–60%
      50–55%
      45–50%
      40–45%
      35–40%
  Cornel West
  •   100%
      65–70%
      60–65%
      55–60%
      50–55%
      45–50%
      40–45%
      35–40%
  De la Cruz-West tie
  •   45–50%
      40–45%
      35–40%
  De la Cruz-Sherman tie
  •   50%
  West-Sherman tie
  •   35–40%
  No votes
  •   No votes

Three candidates successfully achieved ballot access in thePeace and Freedom Party non-binding presidential primary:Claudia de la Cruz, the nominee for theParty for Socialism and Liberation;Cornel West, who ran anindependent campaign after withdrawing from the Green nomination; and Jasmine Sherman.[13] The party's presidential nominee was chosen by the state central committee in August.[14]

2024 California Peace and Freedom primary[12]
CandidateVotesPercentage
Claudia de la Cruz6,43047.0%
Cornel West5,45539.9%
Jasmine Sherman1,79513.1%
Total:13,680100.0%

American Independent Party

[edit]

The sole candidate of theAmerican Independent Party primary was James Bradley, who was simultaneously running for the U.S. Senate as a Republican in theblanket primary held on the same day.[10][15] Andrew George Rummel also qualified as an official write-in candidate.[11]

2024 California American Independent primary[12]
CandidateVotesPercentage
James Bradley45,56599.96%
Andrew George Rummel (write-in)160.04%
Total:45,581100.0%

General election

[edit]

Candidates

[edit]
See also:Ballot access in the 2024 United States presidential election

In California, six political parties have qualified for ballot access in the 2024 election. On August 29, 2024,California secretary of stateShirley Weber published the certified list of candidates for the general election:[16]

Weber's office published the list ofwrite-in candidates on October 25, in whichPeter Sonski was the only certified candidate listed, alongside his running mate Lauren Onak.[17]

Predictions

[edit]
SourceRankingAs of
The Cook Political Report[18]Solid DDecember 19, 2023
Inside Elections[19]Solid DApril 26, 2023
Sabato's Crystal Ball[20]Safe DJune 29, 2023
Decision Desk HQ/The Hill[21]Safe DDecember 14, 2023
CNalysis[22]Solid DDecember 30, 2023
CNN[23]Solid DJanuary 14, 2024
The Economist[24]Safe DJune 12, 2024
538[25]Solid DJune 11, 2024
NBC News[26]Safe DOctober 6, 2024

Polling

[edit]

Kamala Harris vs. Donald Trump

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size[c]		Margin
of error		Kamala
Harris
Democratic		Donald
Trump
Republican		Other /
Undecided
Research Co.[27]November 2–3, 2024450 (LV)± 4.6%64%32%4%
Competitive Edge Research[28]October 28–30, 2024517 (RV)± 4.3%53%38%8%[d]
UC Berkeley IGS[29]October 22–28, 20244,341 (LV)± 2.0%57%35%8%
ActiVote[30]October 7–27, 2024400 (LV)± 4.9%63%37%–
Rose Institute/YouGov[31]October 7–17, 20241,139 (RV)± 3.4%60%33%7%[e]
63%[f]34%3%
1,139 (LV)63%34%3%
Emerson College[32][A]October 12–14, 20241,000 (LV)± 3.0%59%35%6%[g]
61%[f]37%2%[g]
ActiVote[33]September 22 – October 10, 2024400 (LV)± 4.9%63.5%36.5%–
ActiVote[34]August 22 – September 21, 2024400 (LV)± 4.9%64%36%–
Emerson College[35]September 3–5, 2024815 (LV)± 3.4%60%36%4%
61%[f]38%1%[h]
ActiVote[36]August 2–19, 2024400 (LV)± 4.9%65%35%–
UC Berkeley IGS[37]July 31 – August 11, 20243,765 (LV)± 2.0%59%34%7%
July 21, 2024Kamala Harris declaresher candidacy.
Emerson College/Inside California Elections[38][B]November 11–14, 20231,000 (RV)± 3.0%47%38%15%


Kamala Harris vs. Donald Trump vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Cornel West vs. Jill Stein vs. Chase Oliver

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size[c]		Margin
of error		Kamala
Harris
Democratic		Donald
Trump
Republican		Robert F.
Kennedy Jr.
Independent		Cornel
West
Independent		Jill
Stein
Green		Chase
Oliver
Libertarian		Other /
Undecided
Cygnal (R)[39]October 27–30, 2024611 (LV)± 4.0%55%31%4%–2%1%7%[i]
Public Policy Institute of California[40]October 7–15, 20241,137 (LV)± 3.7%59%33%3%–1%0%4%[j]
UC Berkeley IGS[41]September 25 – October 1, 20243,045 (LV)± 2.5%57%35%2%1%1%0%4%
University of Southern California/CSU Long Beach/Cal Poly Pomona[42]September 12–25, 20241,685 (LV)± 2.4%58%36%2%–2%0%2%[k]
Capitol Weekly[43]September 11–16, 20241,054 (LV)–59%34%3%0%2%–2%[i]
Capitol Weekly[44]August 23–26, 20243,154 (LV)–58%36%4%0%2%––
August 23, 2024Robert F. Kennedy, Jr. suspendshis presidential campaign and endorses Donald Trump.
Capitol Weekly[45]August 13–15, 20241,738 (LV)–57%37%5%0%1%––
Capitol Weekly[46]July 25–27, 20241,904 (LV)–59%35%5%0%2%––
July 21, 2024Kamala Harris declaresher candidacy.
Capitol Weekly[47]July 19–22, 20242,121 (LV)–54%33%7%0%4%–2%[i]
Capitol Weekly[48]July 12–14, 20241,044 (LV)–54%35%7%0%3%–2%[i]
Hypothetical polling with Joe Biden and Donald Trump

Joe Biden vs. Donald Trump

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size[c]		Margin
of error		Joe
Biden
Democratic		Donald
Trump
Republican		Other /
Undecided
July 21, 2024Joe Bidenwithdraws from the race.
Public Policy Institute of California[49]June 24 – July 2, 20241,261 (LV)± 3.7%55%30%15%[l]
Public Policy Institute of California[50]May 23 – June 2, 20241,098 (LV)± 3.9%55%31%14%[m]
The Bullfinch Group[51][C]April 16–23, 2024250 (RV)± 6.2%59%34%7%
John Zogby Strategies[52][D]April 13–21, 2024740 (LV)–56%38%6%
Public Policy Institute of California[53]March 19–25, 20241,089 (LV)± 3.9%54%31%14%
Mainstreet Research/Florida Atlantic University[54]February 29 – March 3, 2024740 (RV)–54%36%10%[n]
692 (LV)56%37%7%[o]
Emerson College/Inside California Elections[55][B]February 24–27, 20241,000 (RV)± 3.0%57%35%8%
UC Berkeley IGS[56]February 22–26, 20246,536 (LV)± 1.5%52%34%14%
Emerson College/Inside California Elections[57][B]February 16–18, 20241,000 (RV)± 3.0%55%33%12%
Public Policy Institute of California[58]February 6–13, 20241,075 (LV)± 3.9%55%32%13%
Emerson College/Inside California Elections[59][B]January 11–14, 20241,087 (RV)± 2.9%54%34%12%
UC Berkeley IGS[60]January 1–4, 20244,471 (LV)± 2.0%56%37%19%
Emerson College/Inside California Elections[38][B]November 11–14, 20231,000 (RV)± 3.0%50%37%13%
Public Policy Institute of California[61]November 9–16, 20231,113 (LV)± 3.2%54%30%16%
UC Berkeley IGS[62]October 24–30, 20234,506 (LV)± 2.5%46%31%23%
Public Policy Institute of California[63]October 3–19, 20231,377 (LV)± 4.0%60%29%12%
Data Viewpoint[64]October 1, 2023533 (RV)± 4.3%67%33%–
Public Policy Institute of California[65]August 25 – September 5, 20231,146 (LV)± 3.7%57%26%17%[p]
UC Berkeley IGS[66]August 24–29, 20236,030 (RV)± 2.0%51%31%18%
Public Policy Institute of California[67]June 7–29, 20231,089 (LV)± 3.8%57%31%12%
Emerson College/Inside California Elections[68][B]June 4–7, 20231,056 (RV)± 2.9%54%32%14%
Public Policy Institute of California[69]May 17–24, 20231,062 (LV)± 3.9%58%25%17%
UC Berkeley/Los Angeles Times[70]February 14–20, 20237,512 (RV)± 2.0%57%27%16%
5,149 (LV)59%29%12%

Joe Biden vs. Donald Trump vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Cornel West vs. Jill Stein

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size[c]		Margin
of error		Joe
Biden
Democratic		Donald
Trump
Republican		Robert F.
Kennedy Jr.
Independent		Cornel
West
Independent		Jill
Stein
Green		Other /
Undecided
Capitol Weekly[43]September 11–16, 20241,054 (LV)–51%34%4%0%3%8%[i]
Capitol Weekly[44]August 23–26, 20243,154 (LV)–52%35%4%0%3%5%[i]
Capitol Weekly[45]August 13–15, 20241,738 (LV)–51%36%6%2%1%5%[j]
July 21, 2024Joe Bidenwithdraws from the race.
Capitol Weekly[47]July 19–22, 20242,121 (LV)–52%35%6%0%4%3%[q]
Capitol Weekly[48]July 12–14, 20241,044 (LV)–51%33%6%0%5%5%[r]
The Bullfinch Group[51][C]April 16–23, 2024250 (RV)± 6.2%48%28%12%2%2%8%
Emerson College/Inside California Elections[55][B]February 24–27, 20241,000 (RV)± 3.0%51%32%6%2%1%8%
UC Berkeley IGS[56]February 22–26, 20246,536 (LV)± 1.5%40%28%11%3%2%16%
Emerson College/Inside California Elections[57][B]February 16–18, 20241,000 (RV)± 3.0%49%31%8%1%1%10%
USC Dornsife/CSU Long Beach/Cal Poly Pomona[71]January 21–29, 20241,416 (LV)± 2.6%53%25%7%3%1%9%[s]
Emerson College/Inside California Elections[59][B]January 11–14, 20241,087 (RV)± 2.9%47%32%6%1%1%13%
UC Berkeley IGS[60]January 1–4, 20244,471 (LV)± 2.0%47%31%7%2%2%11%
Emerson College/Inside California Elections[38][B]November 11–14, 20231,000 (RV)± 3.0%43%31%8%1%2%15%
UC Berkeley IGS[62]October 24–30, 20234,506 (LV)± 2.5%43%29%9%4%–15%
Hypothetical polling with other candidates

Joe Biden vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr.

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size[c]		Margin
of error		Joe
Biden
Democratic		Robert F.
Kennedy Jr.
Independent		Other /
Undecided
John Zogby Strategies[52][D]April 13–21, 2024740 (LV)–51%40%9%

Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Donald Trump

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size[c]		Margin
of error		Robert F.
Kennedy Jr.
Independent		Donald
Trump
Republican		Other /
Undecided
John Zogby Strategies[52][D]April 13–21, 2024740 (LV)–47%35%18%

Joe Biden vs. Ron DeSantis

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size[c]		Margin
of error		Joe
Biden
Democratic		Ron
DeSantis
Republican		Other /
Undecided
Emerson College/Inside California Elections[68][B]June 4–7, 20231,056 (RV)± 2.9%54%28%18%
UC Berkeley/Los Angeles Times[70]February 14–20, 20237,512 (RV)± 2.0%54%31%15%
5,149 (LV)56%34%10%

Joe Biden vs. Nikki Haley

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size[c]		Margin
of error		Joe
Biden
Democratic		Nikki
Haley
Republican		Other /
Undecided
Data Viewpoint[64]October 1, 2023533 (RV)± 4.3%58%42%–

Gavin Newsom vs. Donald Trump

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size[c]		Margin
of error		Gavin
Newsom
Democratic		Donald
Trump
Republican		Other /
Undecided
Emerson College/Inside California Elections[38][B]November 11–14, 20231,000 (RV)± 3.0%53%35%13%

Gavin Newsom vs. Ron DeSantis

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size[c]		Margin
of error		Gavin
Newsom
Democratic		Ron
DeSantis
Republican		Other /
Undecided
Probolsky Research[72]August 4–9, 2022900 (LV)± 3.3%55%38%7%

Results

[edit]
2024 United States presidential election in California[73]
PartyCandidateVotes%±%
Democratic9,276,17958.47%Decrease 5.01%
Republican6,081,69738.33%Increase 4.01%
American Independent197,6451.25%Increase 0.91%
Green167,8141.06%Increase 0.60%
Peace and Freedom72,5390.46%Increase 0.17%
Libertarian66,6620.42%Decrease 0.65%
American Solidarity
2,9390.02%Increase 0.01%
Total votes15,865,475100.00%N/A

By county

[edit]
County[74]Kamala Harris
Democratic		Donald Trump
Republican		Various candidates
Other parties		MarginTotal votes cast
#%#%#%#%
Alameda499,55174.57%140,78921.02%29,5674.41%358,76253.55%669,907
Alpine47964.91%24332.93%162.17%23631.98%738
Amador7,78334.74%14,01862.57%6022.69%-6,235-27.83%22,403
Butte44,22846.77%47,17949.90%3,1493.33%-2,951-3.12%94,556
Calaveras9,18134.67%16,62562.78%6742.55%-7,444-28.11%26,480
Colusa2,43134.62%4,41462.87%1762.51%-1,983-28.24%7,021
Contra Costa356,00867.30%155,30829.36%17,6713.34%200,70037.94%528,987
Del Norte4,26640.38%5,99956.78%3002.84%-1,733-16.40%10,565
El Dorado47,70342.63%61,10954.61%3,0962.77%-13,406-11.98%111,908
Fresno151,62846.50%165,92450.89%8,4972.61%-14,296-4.38%326,049
Glenn3,26031.22%6,90466.12%2782.66%-3,644-34.90%10,442
Humboldt39,80061.96%21,55933.56%2,8734.47%18,24128.40%64,232
Imperial26,08348.27%26,54649.12%1,4092.61%-463-0.86%54,038
Inyo4,20146.92%4,46849.91%2843.17%-267-2.98%8,953
Kern108,24138.21%167,87959.26%7,1642.53%-59,638-21.05%283,284
Kings15,51937.39%25,07460.41%9152.20%-9,555-23.02%41,508
Lake12,79447.81%13,16149.18%8063.01%-367-1.37%26,761
Lassen2,47821.79%8,61975.80%2742.41%-6,141-54.01%11,371
Los Angeles2,417,10964.82%1,189,86231.91%122,1183.27%1,227,24732.91%3,729,089
Madera20,98138.40%32,34459.20%1,3072.39%-11,363-20.80%54,632
Marin116,15280.59%24,05416.69%3,9232.72%92,09863.90%144,129
Mariposa3,62238.09%5,62559.15%2622.76%-2,003-21.06%9,509
Mendocino24,04961.32%13,52834.49%1,6424.19%10,52126.83%39,219
Merced40,19046.51%43,95550.87%2,2662.62%-3,765-4.36%86,411
Modoc1,00825.10%2,88471.81%1243.09%-1,876-46.71%4,016
Mono3,52258.08%2,29437.83%2484.09%1,22820.25%6,064
Monterey93,06063.41%49,22633.54%4,4683.04%43,83429.87%146,754
Napa43,21265.91%20,35731.05%1,9923.04%22,85534.86%65,561
Nevada33,78454.36%26,17742.12%2,1833.51%7,60712.24%62,144
Orange691,73149.72%654,81547.06%44,7613.22%36,9162.65%1,391,307
Placer103,95844.26%123,94152.77%6,9722.97%-19,983-8.51%234,871
Plumas4,02039.92%5,72556.85%3253.23%-1,705-16.93%10,070
Riverside451,78248.04%463,67749.30%25,0512.66%-11,895-1.26%940,510
Sacramento381,56458.10%252,14038.39%23,0433.51%129,42419.71%656,747
San Benito15,17954.89%11,70242.32%7712.79%3,47712.57%27,652
San Bernardino362,11447.53%378,41649.67%21,3162.80%-16,302-2.14%761,846
San Diego841,37256.93%593,27040.14%43,3862.94%248,10216.79%1,478,028
San Francisco323,71980.33%62,59415.53%16,6844.14%261,12564.80%402,997
San Joaquin126,64748.03%128,99648.92%8,0663.06%-2,349-0.89%263,709
San Luis Obispo81,31453.92%64,93243.05%4,5663.03%16,38210.86%150,812
San Mateo242,95773.50%76,61623.18%10,9923.33%166,34150.32%330,565
Santa Barbara114,14961.78%64,87035.11%5,7623.12%49,27926.67%184,781
Santa Clara510,74468.04%210,92428.10%28,9383.86%299,82039.94%750,606
Santa Cruz100,99875.28%27,97820.85%5,1793.86%73,02054.43%134,155
Shasta27,13030.51%59,53966.96%2,2502.53%-32,409-36.45%88,919
Sierra64136.52%1,06660.74%482.74%-425-24.22%1,755
Siskiyou8,32938.74%12,46157.96%7083.29%-4,132-19.22%21,498
Solano113,99760.04%70,34537.05%5,5412.92%43,65222.99%189,883
Sonoma179,60071.42%63,42625.22%8,4393.36%116,17446.20%251,465
Stanislaus85,34743.21%106,98654.16%5,1922.63%-21,639-10.96%197,525
Sutter13,01633.09%25,37264.50%9512.42%-12,356-31.41%39,339
Tehama7,41527.94%18,50369.73%6182.33%-11,088-41.78%26,536
Trinity2,44943.38%2,97952.76%2183.86%-530-9.39%5,646
Tulare53,22138.48%81,85459.18%3,2342.34%-28,633-20.70%138,309
Tuolumne10,90937.86%17,21059.72%6972.42%-6,301-21.87%28,816
Ventura217,42456.08%158,90140.99%11,3792.93%58,52315.09%387,704
Yolo61,40566.30%27,84430.06%3,3723.64%33,56136.23%92,621
Yuba10,72535.66%18,49161.49%8562.85%-7,766-25.82%30,072
Totals9,276,17958.47%6,081,69738.33%507,5993.20%3,194,48220.13%15,865,475
Swing by county
Legend
  •   Democratic — +0-2.5%
  •   Republican — +0-2.5%
  •   Republican — +2.5-5%
  •   Republican — +5-7.5%
  •   Republican — +7.5-10%
  •   Republican — +10-12.5%
  •   Republican — +12.5-15%
  •   Republican — +>15%
Trend relative to the state by county
Legend
  •   Democratic — +7.5-10%
  •   Democratic — +5-7.5%
  •   Democratic — +2.5-5%
  •   Democratic — +0-2.5%
  •   Republican — +0-2.5%
  •   Republican — +2.5-5%
  •   Republican — +5-7.5%
  •   Republican — +>15%
County flips
Legend

  • Democratic

      Hold

    Republican

      Hold
      Flip

Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican

By congressional district

[edit]

Harris won 41 of 52 congressional districts. Trump won 11 congressional districts, including two that elected Democrats.[75]

DistrictHarrisTrumpRepresentative
1st36.1%61.1%Doug LaMalfa
2nd70.9%25.7%Jared Huffman
3rd46.5%50.3%Kevin Kiley
4th64.0%32.8%Mike Thompson
5th39.9%57.6%Tom McClintock
6th55.2%41.4%Ami Bera
7th63.1%33.3%Doris Matsui
8th70.1%26.6%John Garamendi
9th47.6%49.4%Josh Harder
10th65.2%31.4%Mark DeSaulnier
11th81.8%14.1%Nancy Pelosi
12th84.5%10.6%Barbara Lee (118th Congress)
Lateefah Simon (119th Congress)
13th46.0%51.4%John Duarte (118th Congress)
Adam Gray (119th Congress)
14th65.8%30.3%Eric Swalwell
15th72.2%24.3%Kevin Mullin
16th72.5%23.9%Anna Eshoo (118th Congress)
Sam Liccardo (119th Congress)
17th66.7%28.8%Ro Khanna
18th63.2%33.7%Zoe Lofgren
19th65.4%31.0%Jimmy Panetta
20th33.7%64.0%Vince Fong
21st50.6%46.8%Jim Costa
22nd45.8%51.6%David Valadao
23rd40.2%57.1%Jay Obernolte
24th60.9%35.9%Salud Carbajal
25th50.1%47.6%Raul Ruiz
26th55.2%42.0%Julia Brownley
27th50.5%46.6%Mike Garcia (118th Congress)
George Whitesides (119th Congress)
28th61.8%34.9%Judy Chu
29th65.8%31.0%Tony Cárdenas (118th Congress)
Luz Rivas (119th Congress)
30th68.8%27.8%Adam Schiff (118th Congress)
Laura Friedman (119th Congress)
31st56.9%40.0%Grace Napolitano (118th Congress)
Gil Cisneros (119th Congress)
32nd64.2%32.9%Brad Sherman
33rd52.9%44.2%Pete Aguilar
34th73.1%22.4%Jimmy Gomez
35th53.7%43.4%Norma Torres
36th67.9%28.8%Ted Lieu
37th78.7%18.3%Sydney Kamlager-Dove
38th56.5%40.4%Linda Sánchez
39th53.3%43.6%Mark Takano
40th47.2%49.5%Young Kim
41st45.7%51.7%Ken Calvert
42nd64.5%32.0%Robert Garcia
43rd72.9%23.9%Maxine Waters
44th65.3%31.5%Nanette Barragán
45th49.3%47.7%Michelle Steel (118th Congress)
Derek Tran (119th Congress)
46th57.3%39.6%Lou Correa
47th50.3%46.2%Katie Porter (118th Congress)
Dave Min (119th Congress)
48th41.1%56.4%Darrell Issa
49th52.5%44.7%Mike Levin
50th63.1%33.5%Scott Peters
51st60.2%36.7%Sara Jacobs
52nd59.3%38.1%Juan Vargas

Analysis

[edit]

California remained strongly blue, voting to the left of all states exceptHawaii,Maryland,Massachusetts,Vermont, andthe District of Columbia. But the state had one of the largest rightward shifts in the country, shifting 9% to the right, compared to the national swing of about 6% in this election. Other highly populous blue states also swung significantly rightward in 2024, including New York (by 11%), New Jersey (by 10%), Massachusetts (by 8%), and Illinois (by 6%).[76]

Trump flipped 10 counties that were won by Biden in 2020:Butte,Fresno,Imperial,Inyo,Lake,Merced,Riverside,San Bernardino,San Joaquin, andStanislaus. Of these 10, all except Butte and Inyo were also won byHillary Clinton in2016. Trump’s wins in Fresno, Merced, Riverside, San Bernardino, San Joaquin, and Stanislaus marked the first time they voted for aRepublican since George W. Bush in2004, although all are fairly consistently Republican at the state level.

Trump's win in Imperial (which is over 80% Hispanic) marked the first time it voted Republican sinceGeorge H.W. Bush in1988, with Imperial being the most Hispanic county in California and shifting rightward by 25.23 percentage points. Imperial County had the third-largest swing to Trump of any county in the country, behindMaverick County, Texas (by 27.95%) andWebb County, Texas (by 25.43%), two other majority-Hispanic counties along theMexico–United States border.[77]

Trump's win in Lake marked the first time it voted Republican sinceRonald Reagan in1984. Trump was also the first Republican since George W. Bush in 2004 to win at least 30% inLos Angeles County. Trump managed to flip four congressional districts, two of which split tickets and elected Democrats. Trump's gains with Hispanics allowed him to cross 40% inSouthern California for the first time since 2004 as well as trended the region to the right of the state. Trump’s gains among Hispanics in California also helped improve his margins in the state, also allowing him to carry 9 of the state's 11Hispanic majority counties.[78] In contrast to the number of counties that switched from Democratic to Republican in this cycle, none flipped in the opposite direction, and onlyAlpine County increased its share of the Democratic vote from 2020.

Trump also gained ground withAsian American voters in California, with Asian Americans being almost entirely responsible for the rightward shift in areas lacking significant Hispanic populations, such as San Francisco.[79] In majority-ChineseArcadia andTemple City, both communities in theSan Gabriel Valley, Harris's margin dropped by 10% and 13% respectively.[80] Trump also gained in mostly FilipinoDaly City by 15%.[81] Trump became the first Republican since 2004 to win theInland Empire, California's third largest metropolitan area and a blue collar majority-Hispanic region that had been economically struggling.[82]

Trump achieved significant gains in Los Angeles, receiving 27% of the vote, the highest for a Republican candidate in the city since1988. This was a marked improvement from2020, when Trump garnered only 21%, and2016, when he received just 16% of the vote in the city.[83] According to the New York Times 2024 precinct map, Trump's substantial gains in Los Angeles were largely attributed to increased support in Hispanic and Asian neighborhoods, although he made gains in nearly every single precinct in the city regardless.[84] These communities, which have traditionally leaned Democratic, showed growing support for Trump, especially in areas where economic concerns, cultural values, and opposition to some policies of the Democratic Party resonated with voters. Donald Trump also saw an increase in Latino support in California, garnering 38% of the Latino vote, compared to 29% in the 2020 election, according to Fox News voter analysis.[85] Trump won 42% of Latino men compared to Harris's 54% and Trump received 34% of Latina women compared to Harris's 63%—both major improvements from 2020.

Despite these results, Harris was able to hold onto historically RepublicanOrange County by a narrow plurality. Orange is one of thehighest-income counties, supporting exit polls showing that Harris gained among high-income voters. Harris also won every California county on theWest Coast except forDel Norte County. She is also the first Democrat since John Kerry to win California despite carrying a minority of counties, winning 25 out of 58.

Harris underperformed Biden's 2020 total by nearly 2 million, losing over 600,000 votes inLos Angeles County alone. By contrast, Trump narrowly surpassed his vote total from 2020, solidifying his base of support in the state at just over 6 million votes; this marked his third-highest vote total from any state in the country in 2024, only behind 6.4 million inTexas and 6.1 million inFlorida.

The swing in the presidential contest was part of a broad rightward swing in California. This included a broad rejection of progressive ballot measures[86] and a near-universal swing against progressive local candidates.[87] Republican U.S. Senate candidateSteve Garvey was one of the few Republican U.S. Senate candidates that outran Donald Trump, receiving over 230,000 more votes than Trump in the concurrent2024 United States Senate elections in California, while DemocratAdam Schiff received about 240,000 fewer votes than Harris.

See also

[edit]

Notes

[edit]
  1. ^abKennedy suspended hiscampaign on August 23, after the deadline for ballot access had passed, and thus remained on the ballot.
  2. ^abDe la Cruz and Garcia are affiliated with theParty for Socialism and Liberation on a national level.
  3. ^abcdefghijKey:
    A – all adults
    RV – registered voters
    LV – likely voters
    V – unclear
  4. ^"Someone else" with 4%
  5. ^"Other" with 7%
  6. ^abcWith voters who lean towards a given candidate
  7. ^ab"Someone else" with 2%
  8. ^"Someone else" with 1%
  9. ^abcdefClaudia De la Cruz (PSL) with 2%
  10. ^abClaudia De la Cruz (PSL) with 1%
  11. ^Claudia De la Cruz (PSL) with 0%
  12. ^"Someone else" with 11%
  13. ^"Someone else" with 13%
  14. ^"Another candidate" with 6%
  15. ^"Another candidate" with 4%
  16. ^"Someone else" with 12%; "Would not vote" with 2%
  17. ^Claudia De la Cruz (PSL) with 3%
  18. ^Claudia De la Cruz (PSL) with 4%
  19. ^Lars Mapstead (L) with 0%
  1. ^Poll sponsored by Inside CA Politics andThe Hill
  2. ^abcdefghijklPoll sponsored byNexstar Media Group
  3. ^abPoll sponsored by The Independent Center
  4. ^abcPoll conducted forKennedy's campaign

References

[edit]
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