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2024 United States Senate election in Montana

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Main article:2024 United States Senate elections
Not to be confused with2024 Montana Senate election.

2024 United States Senate election in Montana
← 2018
November 5, 2024
2030 →
Turnout75.92% (of registered voters)[1]Increase 4.39
 
NomineeTim SheehyJon Tester
PartyRepublicanDemocratic
Popular vote319,682276,305
Percentage52.64%45.50%
County results
Congressional district results
Precinct results
Sheehy:     40–50%     50–60%     60–70%     70–80%     80–90%     >90%
Tester:     40–50%     50–60%     60–70%     70–80%     80–90%     >90%
U.S. senator before election

Jon Tester
Democratic

Elected U.S. Senator

Tim Sheehy
Republican

Elections in Montana
Presidential elections
Presidential primaries
Democratic
2000
2004
2008
2016
2020
2024
Republican
2008
2012
2016
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U.S. Senate elections
U.S. House of Representatives elections

The2024 United States Senate election in Montana was held on November 5, 2024, to elect a member of theUnited States Senate torepresent the state ofMontana. IncumbentDemocratic SenatorJon Tester lost re-election to a fourth term, being defeated byRepublican nomineeTim Sheehy.

Despite the state's heavy partisan lean in favor of the Republican Party, Tester remained popular among his constituents. Because of this and Montana's historical inclination toticket-split, the race was considered to be competitive. Early polling showed Tester to be leading or nearly even, but Sheehy later gained an edge. Tester was widely seen as being the most vulnerable incumbent running for re-election, due to Montana's strong Republican lean and the decline of split-ticket voting.[2]

Tester, a renownedcentrist liberal, was first elected in2006, when he narrowly defeated incumbent Republican senatorConrad Burns, and was reelected in2012 and2018. However, come Election Day in 2024, his vulnerability came to fruition as he lost his bid for a fourth term to Tim Sheehy by around 7.1 percentage points. Sheehy received roughly 52.6% of the statewide vote to Tester's 45.5%. Despite his loss, Tester still vastly overperformed DemocratKamala Harris in theconcurrent presidential election, who lost the state toDonald Trump by just under 20 percentage points. Tester also carried six counties across the state that were won by Trump in the race for the presidency, those beingBig Horn,Blaine,Hill,Lewis & Clark (Helena),Roosevelt, andPark counties. Tester received over 44,000 more raw votes than Harris, while Sheehy received over 32,000 less raw votes than Trump.

Along withBob Casey Jr. inPennsylvania andSherrod Brown inOhio, Tester was one of three incumbent senators to lose re-election in 2024. All three were first elected in2006, defeating Republican incumbents, and won re-election in2012 and2018. This race was one of two 2024 U.S. Senate races in which Democratic senators sought re-election in states where RepublicanDonald Trump won in both the 2016 and 2020 presidential elections, the other being Ohio. With Sheehy's victory, Republicans held both of Montana's Senate seats for the first time since 1911.

Background

[edit]

Montana has generally been considered ared state at the federal executive level, voting for Republican candidates in each presidential election starting in1996, whenBob Dole beatBill Clinton by nearly 3 percentage points in a three-way race withRoss Perot. Since then, GOP candidates have won the White House race in the state by double digits in every race except in2008. In the most recent presidential election, in2020,Donald Trump beatJoe Biden in Montana by 56.92% to 40.55%. Republicans have also won all of the state'sU.S. House elections since 1996. Within this time frame, Democrats have been more successful in elections for state offices and the U.S. Senate, with itsgovernorship,state legislature, and Senate seats alternating between Democratic and Republican control. Leading up to the 2024 election, Republicans controlled both of Montana's U.S. House seats, the other U.S. Senate seat, the governorship, and had supermajority control of both houses of the state legislature.

Tester refused to endorse fellow DemocratKamala Harris for president, a contributing factor towards the Senate race having been considered less nationalized. In 2012, the last election that featured Tester on the same ballot as the presidential election, Republicanpresidential candidate Mitt Romney won by 13.64%, whileTester won by 3.72% without receiving a majority (50%) of the vote.[3][4][5][6]

Top-two primary proposal

[edit]

On April 4, 2023,Montana's State Senate passed a bill to institute atop-two primary system, but only for the 2024 U.S. Senate race. The bill's sponsor, RepublicanGreg Hertz, said it would require the winner of the 2024 Senate race to receive a majority of the vote. Incumbent DemocratJon Tester won with a plurality of the vote in his2006 and2012 Senate campaigns, though he won a majority in2018. Both Democrats and Libertarians alleged the bill was intended to prevent the Libertarian Party from placing a nominee on the general election ballot in the Senate race who could potentiallypull votes away from the Republican nominee, with Democratic state senatorRyan Lynch calling it a "partisan power grab."[7][8]

After the bill received backlash, Hertz introduced an amendment to make the use of a top-two primary for U.S. Senate elections permanent rather than sunsetting it after the 2024 race.[9] TheMontana House of Representatives State Administration Committee tabled the bill on April 19.[10] An attempt to revive the bill failed, and the legislature adjourned without passing it, conclusively ending the push for a top-two primary.[11]

Campaign

[edit]

SenatorJon Tester made some moves to distance himself from theJoe Biden administration, but his voting record remained in line with the Democratic Party.[12] In July 2024, he called for Biden to withdraw from the2024 United States presidential election.[13] In August, he announced that he would not endorseKamala Harris for president.[14]

Hank Green, an AmericanYouTuber,author, andeducator known for his work on the educational seriesCrash Course, served as a moderator at an event for Tester inMissoula, Montana, in August 2024. He led a Q&A session alongside musicianJeff Ament, discussing local issues and encouraging voters to participate in the November election.[15][16]

Recordings first reported byThe Char-Koosta News in August 2024 ofTim Sheehy at a 2023 closed-door fundraiser led to accusations that he hadracially stereotyped Montana'sCrow people.[17] In one statement about how he ropes and brands cattle with Crow tribe members, he said it is "a great way to bond with all the Indians while they're drunk at 8 a.m." Sheehy said the tapes had been "chopped up".[18][19][20] Tribal leaders requested an apology, but Sheehy declined.[21][22]

Democratic primary

[edit]

Candidates

[edit]

Nominee

[edit]

Eliminated in primary

[edit]
  • Michael Hummert, retired remodeling contractor[24]

Endorsements

[edit]
Jon Tester

U.S. senators

Statewide officials

Organizations

Labor unions

Fundraising

[edit]
Campaign finance reports as of May 15, 2024
CandidateRaisedSpentCash on hand
Jon Tester (D)$37,330,566$26,017,759$11,793,381
Source:Federal Election Commission[45]

Results

[edit]
Primary results by county:
  Tester
  •   70–80%
  •   >90%
Democratic primary results[46]
PartyCandidateVotes%
DemocraticJon Tester (incumbent)104,27996.96%
DemocraticMichael Hummert3,2723.04%
Total votes107,551100.00%

Republican primary

[edit]

Candidates

[edit]

Nominee

[edit]

Eliminated in primary

[edit]

Withdrew

[edit]

Declined

[edit]

Endorsements

[edit]
Tim Sheehy

Executive branch officials

U.S. senators

Governors

U.S. representatives

Organizations

Matt Rosendale(withdrawn)

U.S. senators

U.S. representatives

State legislators

Individuals

Organizations

Fundraising

[edit]
Campaign finance reports as of May 15, 2024
CandidateRaisedSpentCash on hand
Brad Johnson (R)$42,967[a]$39,697$3,270
Tim Sheehy (R)$10,547,437[b]$8,324,164$2,223,272
Source:Federal Election Commission[45]

Polling

[edit]
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size[c]		Margin
of error		Brad
Johnson		Matt
Rosendale		Tim
Sheehy		Other /
Undecided
co/efficient (R)[79]November 12–14, 2023888 (LV)± 3.3%–24%40%36%
Fabrizio, Lee & Associates (R)[80]October 23–25, 2023600 (LV)± 4.0%6%35%38%21%[d]
0%41%44%15%
J.L. Partners[81]August 12–17, 2023418 (LV)––52%21%28%
Public Policy Polling (D)[82]June 19–20, 2023510 (LV)± 4.3%–64%10%26%
Hypothetical polling
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size[c]		Margin
of error		Russell
Fagg		Brad
Johnson		Matt
Rosendale		Tim
Sheehy		Corey
Stapleton		Ryan
Zinke		Other /
Undecided
OnMessage Inc. (R)[83]February 18–21, 2023600 (LV)[e]± 4.0%2%–36%2%6%26%28%

Results

[edit]
Primary results by county:
  Sheehy
  •   50–60%
  •   60–70%
  •   70–80%
  •   80–90%
Republican primary results[46]
PartyCandidateVotes%
RepublicanTim Sheehy139,85773.60%
RepublicanBrad Johnson36,92619.43%
RepublicanCharles Walkingchild Sr.13,2296.96%
Total votes190,012100.00%

Libertarian primary

[edit]

Candidates

[edit]

Nominee

[edit]

Green primary

[edit]

Candidates

[edit]

Withdrew after nomination

[edit]
  • Michael Downey, drought program coordinator[24]

Replacement nominee

[edit]
  • Robert Barb, nominee for governor in2020[85]

Results

[edit]
Green primary results[46]
PartyCandidateVotes%
GreenMichael Downey67962.4%
GreenRobert Barb41037.6%
Total votes1,089100.0%

Aftermath

[edit]

Michael Downey, the winner of the Green Party primary election, dropped out of the race on August 12, citing the possibility that he might be aspoiler candidate in a close race.[86] TheGreen Party of Montana selected the runner-up, Robert Barb, to replace Downey. TheMontana Democratic Party filed a lawsuit asking for Barb to be removed from the ballot because of allegations that the Montana Green Party did not follow its procedure for designating a replacement candidate.[87] Kathy Seeley, the district court judge hearing the case, denied the request. The Montana Democratic Party appealed to theMontana Supreme Court, but the justices refused to hear the case, leaving Barb on the ballot.[88]

General election

[edit]

Predictions

[edit]
SourceRankingAs of
The Cook Political Report[89]Lean R(flip)September 12, 2024
Inside Elections[90]Tilt R(flip)September 12, 2024
Sabato's Crystal Ball[91]Lean R(flip)September 6, 2024
Decision Desk HQ/The Hill[92]Likely R(flip)October 20, 2024
Elections Daily[93]Lean R(flip)August 9, 2024
CNalysis[94]Tilt R(flip)November 4, 2024
RealClearPolitics[95]Lean R(flip)September 12, 2024
Split Ticket[96]Lean R(flip)October 23, 2024

Post-primary endorsements

[edit]
Tim Sheehy (R)

U.S. representatives

U.S. senators

Statewide officials

Individuals

Organizations

Jon Tester (D)

Statewide officials

State senators

State representatives

Individuals

Organizations

Fundraising

[edit]

In October 2024, total spending for both sides (including both campaign spending andIndependent expenditures), was on track to exceed $315 million. With Montana having only 648,000 active registered voters, the amount spent averaged $487 per voter, making the race the most expensive congressional campaign in U.S. history on a per voter basis. Democrats outspent Republicans by $50 million. Most of the money came from out-of-state dark money groups.[108]

Campaign finance reports as of October 16, 2024
CandidateRaisedSpentCash on hand
Jon Tester (D)$88,163,151$84,499,372$4,144,352
Tim Sheehy (R)$26,161,679[f]$22,284,629$3,877,050
Source:Federal Election Commission[45]

Debates

[edit]
DatesHostTesterSheehyLink
June 10, 2024Montana Broadcasters AssociationParticipantParticipantYouTube
September 30, 2024Montana PBSParticipantParticipantYouTube

Polling

[edit]

Aggregate polls

Source of poll
aggregation		Dates
administered		Dates
updated		Tim
Sheehy (R)		Jon
Tester (D)		Undecided
[g]		Margin
RealClearPolitics[109]October 5 – November 4, 2024November 4, 202450.7%43.0%6.3%Sheehy +7.7%
538[110]through November 4, 2024November 4, 202449.7%42.7%7.6%Sheehy +7.0%
270toWin[111]October 10–27, 2024November 4, 202451.0%45.0%4.0%Sheehy +6.0%
TheHill/DDHQ[112]through November 4, 2024November 4, 202450.0%43.1%6.9%Sheehy +6.9%
Average50.4%43.5%6.1%Sheehy +6.9%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size[c]		Margin
of error		Jon
Tester (D)		Tim
Sheehy (R)		OtherUndecided
AtlasIntel[113]November 3–4, 2024752 (LV)± 4.0%39%50%5%[h]6%
Emerson College[114][A]October 23–25, 20241,000 (LV)± 3.0%48%51%2%[i]–
46%50%2%[i]3%
MSU Billings[115]September 30 – October 16, 2024760 (LV)± 3.6%43%43%6%[j]8%
New York Times/Siena College[116]October 5–8, 2024656 (LV)± 4.3%44%52%–4%
656 (RV)44%51%–4%
Public Opinion Strategies (R)[117][B]September 29 – October 1, 2024500 (LV)± 4.3%45%51%2%[k]2%
Remington Research Group (R)[118][C]September 16–20, 2024800 (LV)± 3.5%44%52%–4%
RMG Research[119][D]September 12–19, 2024491 (LV)± 4.4%43%50%2%4%
Fabrizio Ward (R)/
David Binder Research (D)[120][E]		August 25–29, 2024600 (LV)± 4.0%45%51%–4%
41%49%5%[l]5%
Public Opinion Strategies (R)[121][B]August 18–20, 2024500 (LV)± 4.4%44%51%3%[m]2%
Rasmussen Reports (R)[122][F]August 13–20, 2024835 (LV)± 3.0%43%50%–7%
RMG Research[123][D]August 6–14, 2024540 (RV)± 4.2%49%44%2%4%
American Pulse Research & Polling[124][G]August 10–12, 2024538 (RV)± 4.2%45%51%–4%
Emerson College[125][A]August 5–6, 20241,000 (LV)± 3.0%46%48%–5%
Expedition Strategies[126][H]June 24 – July 8, 2024251 (LV)–47%48%–4%
Remington Research Group (R)[127][C]June 29 – July 1, 2024570 (LV)± 4.0%45%50%–5%
Torchlight Strategies (R)[128][I]June 22–26, 2024649 (RV)± 3.9%41%47%5%[m]7%
Public Opinion Strategies (R)[129][B]June 11–13, 2024500 (LV)± 4.4%46%46%4%[n]4%
Fabrizio, Lee & Associates (R)[130][J]June 3–5, 2024500 (LV)± 4.4%48%48%–4%
43%46%4%[o]7%
J.L. Partners[132]March 26–29, 2024503 (LV)± 4.3%45%48%–7%
Emerson College[133][A]February 26 – March 2, 20241,000 (RV)± 3.0%44%42%–14%
SurveyUSA[134][K]February 12–15, 2024549 (LV)± 4.5%49%40%3%7%
Emerson College[135]October 1–4, 2023447 (RV)± 4.6%39%35%6%21%
J.L. Partners[136]August 12–17, 2023741 (LV)–42%46%–12%
Hypothetical polling

Jon Tester vs. Greg Gianforte

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size[c]		Margin
of error		Jon
Tester (D)		Greg
Gianforte (R)		Undecided
Political Company (R)[137]January 30 – February 1, 2023534 (LV)± 4.0%45%45%10%

Jon Tester vs. Brad Johnson

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size[c]		Margin
of error		Jon
Tester (D)		Brad
Johnson (R)		OtherUndecided
SurveyUSA[134][K]February 12–15, 2024549 (LV)± 4.5%50%35%4%11%

Jon Tester vs. Matt Rosendale

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size[c]		Margin
of error		Jon
Tester (D)		Matt
Rosendale (R)		OtherUndecided
SurveyUSA[134][K]February 12–15, 2024549 (LV)± 4.5%49%40%4%7%
J.L. Partners[136]August 12–17, 2023741 (LV)–43%46%–11%
OnMessage Inc. (R)[83]February 18–21, 2023600 (LV)± 4.0%41%46%5%7%
Political Company (R)[137]January 30 – February 1, 2023534 (LV)± 4.0%45%40%–15%

Jon Tester vs. Ryan Zinke

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size[c]		Margin
of error		Jon
Tester (D)		Ryan
Zinke (R)		Undecided
Political Company (R)[137]January 30 – February 1, 2023534 (LV)± 4.0%46%40%14%

Results

[edit]
2024 United States Senate election in Montana[138]
PartyCandidateVotes%±%
RepublicanTim Sheehy319,68252.64%+5.86%
DemocraticJon Tester (incumbent)276,30545.50%−4.83%
LibertarianSid Daoud7,2721.20%−1.68%
GreenRobert Barb4,0030.66%N/A
Total votes607,262100.00%N/A
Republicangain fromDemocratic

By county

[edit]
County[138]Jon Tester
Democratic		Tim Sheehy
Republican		Various candidates
Other parties		MarginTotal

votes

#%#%#%#%
Beaverhead2,02434.65%3,70763.47%1101.88%1,68328.81%5,841
Big Horn2,80562.99%1,58035.48%681.53%–1,225–27.51%4,453
Blaine1,81459.34%1,19238.99%511.67%–622–20.35%3,057
Broadwater1,21925.18%3,50372.35%1202.48%2,28447.17%4,842
Carbon2,79437.82%4,45960.35%1351.83%1,66522.54%7,388
Carter10912.76%73285.71%131.52%62372.95%854
Cascade17,32345.73%19,80852.30%7461.97%2,4856.56%37,877
Chouteau1,27443.03%1,64355.49%441.49%36912.46%2,961
Custer1,85531.87%3,81865.60%1472.53%1,96333.73%5,820
Daniels22023.06%71975.37%151.57%49952.31%954
Dawson1,25927.06%3,26970.26%1252.69%2,01043.20%4,653
Deer Lodge2,99160.92%1,82037.07%992.02%–1,171–23.85%4,910
Fallon25617.12%1,20080.27%392.61%94463.14%1,495
Fergus1,91028.24%4,74970.22%1041.54%2,83941.98%6,763
Flathead23,64737.21%38,58260.72%1,3132.07%14,93623.51%63,542
Gallatin39,09455.41%30,53743.28%9241.31%–8,557–12.13%70,555
Garfield688.54%72090.45%81.01%65281.91%796
Glacier3,63870.86%1,42627.78%701.36%–2,212–43.09%5,134
Golden Valley9117.50%42281.15%71.35%33163.65%520
Granite77835.61%1,37763.02%301.37%59927.41%2,185
Hill3,43850.32%3,21747.09%1772.59%–221–3.23%6,832
Jefferson3,09937.10%5,10861.15%1461.75%2,00924.05%8,353
Judith Basin35225.88%99172.87%171.25%63946.99%1,360
Lake7,79845.89%8,88152.26%3141.85%1,0836.37%16,993
Lewis and Clark22,17552.31%19,36745.69%8472.00%–2,808–6.62%42,389
Liberty30730.64%68368.16%121.20%37637.52%1,002
Lincoln3,28727.81%8,29170.15%2412.04%5,00442.34%11,819
Madison2,02531.09%4,38867.36%1011.55%2,36336.28%6,514
McCone17315.94%89082.03%222.03%71766.08%1,085
Meagher30926.19%84571.61%262.20%53645.42%1,180
Mineral95033.35%1,83164.27%682.39%88130.92%2,849
Missoula48,42966.00%23,74332.36%1,2001.64%–24,686–33.64%73,372
Musselshell53617.84%2,40880.13%612.03%1,87262.30%3,005
Park6,00950.85%5,61447.51%1931.63%–395–3.34%11,816
Petroleum5015.24%27483.54%41.22%22468.29%328
Phillips49022.27%1,67876.27%321.45%1,18854.00%2,200
Pondera1,01735.48%1,80462.94%451.57%78727.46%2,866
Powder River20518.47%88679.82%191.71%68161.35%1,110
Powell1,06532.26%2,16065.43%762.30%1,09533.17%3,301
Prairie18025.97%48970.56%243.46%30944.59%693
Ravalli10,44934.78%19,11663.62%4821.60%8,66728.84%30,047
Richland1,23823.36%3,91473.85%1482.79%2,67650.49%5,300
Roosevelt2,24956.82%1,63641.33%731.84%–613–15.49%3,958
Rosebud1,43538.53%2,20859.29%812.18%77320.76%3,724
Sanders2,24127.65%5,66369.86%2022.49%3,42242.22%8,106
Sheridan68536.11%1,15961.10%532.79%47424.99%1,897
Silver Bow11,85464.36%6,23233.84%3321.80%–5,622–30.52%18,418
Stillwater1,35222.79%4,47375.40%1071.80%3,12152.61%5,932
Sweet Grass66527.69%1,68570.15%522.16%1,02042.46%2,402
Teton1,21633.72%2,32364.42%671.86%1,10730.70%3,606
Toole55827.30%1,43670.25%502.45%87842.95%2,044
Treasure10122.60%33675.17%102.24%23552.57%447
Valley1,30731.93%2,67265.28%1142.79%1,36533.35%4,093
Wheatland27825.60%79272.93%161.47%51447.33%1,086
Wibaux12122.00%41475.27%152.73%29353.27%550
Yellowstone33,49340.85%46,81257.10%1,6802.05%13,31916.25%81,985
Totals276,30545.50%319,68252.64%11,2751.86%43,3777.14%607,262
Shift by county
Trend by county
Legend
  •   Republican — >15%
  •   Republican — +12.5−15%
  •   Republican — +10−12.5%
  •   Republican — +7.5−10%
  •   Republican — +5−7.5%
  •   Republican — +2.5−5%
  •   Republican — +0−2.5%
  •   Democratic — +0−2.5%
  •   Democratic — +2.5−5%
  •   Democratic — +5−7.5%
  •   Democratic — +7.5-10%
  •   Democratic — +10−12.5%
  •   Democratic — +12.5−15%
      Democratic—+>15%
County flips
Legend

  • Democratic

      Hold

    Republican

      Hold
      Gain from Democratic

Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican

By congressional district

[edit]

Sheehy and Tester each won one of two congressional districts, with Tester narrowly winning the 1st district, which elected a Republican representative.[139]

DistrictTesterSheehyRepresentative
1st49.51%48.77%Ryan Zinke
2nd40.90%57.08%Matt Rosendale (118th Congress)
Troy Downing (119th Congress)

See also

[edit]

Notes

[edit]
  1. ^$30,000 of this total was self-funded by Johnson
  2. ^$2,050,000 of this total was self-funded by Sheehy
  3. ^abcdefgKey:
    A – all adults
    RV – registered voters
    LV – likely voters
    V – unclear
  4. ^Jeremy Mygland with 1%
  5. ^Oversample of 100 likely Republican primary voters
  6. ^$2,450,000 of this total was self-funded by Sheehy
  7. ^Calculated by taking the difference of 100% and all other candidates combined.
  8. ^"Blank/Null/Won't vote" with 4%; "Other" with 1%
  9. ^abDaoud (L) with 1%; Barb (G) with 1%
  10. ^Daoud (L) with 4%; Barb (G) with 2%
  11. ^Sid Daoud (L) with 1%
  12. ^Sid Daoud (L) with 4%; Michael Downey with 1%
  13. ^abSid Daoud (L) with 2%; Michael Downey (G) with 1%
  14. ^Sid Daoud (L) with 2%; Michael Downey (G) with 2%
  15. ^Sid Daoud (L) with 4%

Partisan clients

  1. ^abcPoll sponsored byThe Hill.
  2. ^abcPoll sponsored by theMontana Republican Party
  3. ^abPoll sponsored by American Fuel & Petrochemical Manufacturers, a group that supports Republicans.
  4. ^abPoll commissioned by the Napolitan Institute
  5. ^Poll sponsored byAARP.
  6. ^Poll sponsored byNumbersUSA, a conservative group
  7. ^Poll commissioned byKULR-TV
  8. ^Poll Sponsored by Progressive Policy Institute
  9. ^Poll commissioned by Common Sense for America PAC, which supports Republican candidates
  10. ^Poll sponsored by More Jobs, Less Government, a super PAC "with ties to" U.S. SenatorSteve Daines, who is supporting Sheehy.[131]
  11. ^abcPoll sponsored byKULR-TV

References

[edit]
  1. ^"2024 General Election - November 5, 2024".Montana Secretary of State - Christi Jacobsen.
  2. ^Kilgore, Ed (October 4, 2024)."Will a Generic Republican Beat Tester and Flip the Senate?".New York Magazine. RetrievedOctober 4, 2024.
  3. ^Yokley, Eli (April 19, 2023)."Red-State Voters Give Democrats Tester, Manchin Opposite Marks Ahead of 2024".Morning Consult. RetrievedApril 27, 2023.
  4. ^Coleman, J. Miles (July 11, 2024)."The Shocking Decline of Senate Ticket-Splitting".Sabato's Crystal Ball. RetrievedApril 27, 2023..
  5. ^Draeger, Jonathan (April 19, 2023)."GOP Poised To Regain Senate Majority, Polls Indicate".RealClearPolitics. RetrievedJuly 13, 2024.
  6. ^CARLY GRAF Lee Newspapers and (August 23, 2024)."On final day of the DNC, Tester says he won't endorse a candidate for president".Bozeman Daily Chronicle. Associated Press. RetrievedSeptember 28, 2024.
  7. ^Kimbel-Sannit, Arren (April 3, 2023)."Senate passes bill creating top-two primary in Tester's 2024 U.S. Senate race".
  8. ^"Republicans seek to change Montana primary to thwart Tester".AP News. April 5, 2023. RetrievedAugust 6, 2023.
  9. ^Corasaniti, Nick (April 14, 2023)."Facing Tough Senate Race, Montana G.O.P. Looks to Change the Rules".The New York Times.
  10. ^Brown, Matthew (April 19, 2023)."Montana shelves GOP proposal to alter US Senate primary".Associated Press.
  11. ^Singer, Jeff."Daily Kos Elections Live Digest: 5/3".Daily Kos. RetrievedAugust 6, 2023.The end of Montana's legislative session Tuesday night means that the GOP proposal to conduct the 2024 Senate election using top-two rules in order to weaken Democratic incumbent Jon Tester is officially dead...it passed the state Senate last month. A state House committee, though, tabled the measure weeks later, and an attempt to resurrect the top-two also failed a short time later.
  12. ^Goodwin, Liz (May 23, 2023)."The battle to defeat Jon Tester in Montana is personal for Republicans".The Washington Post. RetrievedJune 21, 2023.
  13. ^"Sen. Tester calls on Biden not to seek another term".Daily Montanan). July 19, 2024. RetrievedJuly 19, 2024.
  14. ^Taheri, Mandy (August 22, 2024)."Democratic Senator Refuses to Endorse Kamala Harris: 'Two Reasons'". Newsweek. RetrievedJanuary 12, 2025.
  15. ^Clancey, Jen (August 26, 2024)."'Rock on with Jon': Tester, Pearl Jam bassist Jeff Ament discuss importance of 2024 election, living in Montana".Explore Big Sky.
  16. ^"Tester, Pearl Jam bassist Ament discuss MT values, challenges".Missoula Current. August 22, 2024.
  17. ^Browning, Kellen (September 3, 2024)."Tim Sheehy Was Recorded Using Racist Stereotypes About Native Americans".The New York Times.
  18. ^Ehrlick, Darrell (September 20, 2024)."Sheehy doesn't apologize for comments, says recordings chopped up".KTVQ. RetrievedOctober 29, 2024.
  19. ^Lutey, Tom (November 1, 2024)."Who is Tim Sheehy now?".Montana Free Press. RetrievedNovember 2, 2024.
  20. ^Ehrlick, Darryl (October 1, 2024)."CSKT stands with Crow Tribe following U.S. Senate candidate Tim Sheehy's remarks".KPAX News. RetrievedNovember 2, 2024.My ranching partner and really good friend, Turk Stovall, he's a Crow Indian and we ranch together on the Crow Reservation. So I'm pretty involved down there, going to the Crow Reservation and their annual Crow parade this year. I rope and brand with them every year. So, it's a great way to bond with all the Indians being out there while they're drunk at 8 a.m., and you're roping together. Every one that you miss, you get a Coors Light on the side of your head.
  21. ^Coffin, Jackie (September 16, 2024)."Tribal leaders renew calls for an apology from U.S. Senate candidate Tim Sheehy".Yellowstone Public Radio.
  22. ^Bolton, Alexander (October 1, 2024)."Montana GOP Senate candidate says remarks about Native Americans were 'insensitive,' rejects call to apologize".The Hill. RetrievedNovember 2, 2024.
  23. ^Concepcion, Summer (February 22, 2023)."Sen. Jon Tester to seek re-election in 2024".NBC News. RetrievedFebruary 22, 2023.
  24. ^abc"FEDERAL PRIMARY 2024 Candidate List".prodcandidatefiling.mt.gov. RetrievedMarch 12, 2024.
  25. ^Everett, Burgess (April 7, 2023)."Montana beef: Bad blood intensifies between Tester and Daines".Politico. RetrievedApril 8, 2023.Manchin is backing Tester and has tried to stop senator-vs.-senator campaign appearances, even previously endorsing two moderate Republicans.
  26. ^Autry, Lisa (March 26, 2024)."Beshear's PAC issues first wave of endorsements".WKU Public Radio. RetrievedMarch 27, 2024.
  27. ^Browning, Kellen; Irvine, Tailyr (May 17, 2024)."Montana's Senate Race Could Come Down to One Question: Do I Trust You?".The New York Times. RetrievedMay 18, 2024.
  28. ^Rod, March (March 16, 2023)."AIPAC rolls out first 2024 endorsements, including vulnerable Senate Democrats".Jewish Insider. RetrievedJuly 13, 2023.
  29. ^"Senate Candidates".Council for a Livable World. Archived fromthe original on September 6, 2023. RetrievedSeptember 6, 2023.
  30. ^Fernandez, Madison (May 20, 2024)."Pro-Israel group boosts Democrats in battleground races".Politico. RetrievedMay 20, 2024.
  31. ^"End Citizens United // Let America Vote Endorses Senator Tester for Reelection".endcitizensunited.org (Press release). March 30, 2023. RetrievedJuly 13, 2023.
  32. ^"2024 – Feminist Majority PAC".feministmajoritypac.org. RetrievedApril 11, 2023.
  33. ^"JDCA Announces First Round of 2024 Senate Endorsements".Jewish Democratic Council of America. RetrievedAugust 25, 2023.
  34. ^"Meet JAC's 2024 Candidates | Joint Action Committee for Political Affairs".jacpac.org. Archived fromthe original on September 1, 2023. RetrievedSeptember 1, 2023.
  35. ^"LCV Action Fund Announces First Round of Congressional Endorsements".League of Conservation Voters. RetrievedJuly 27, 2023.
  36. ^"2024 Federal Endorsements".NOW PAC. RetrievedMarch 25, 2024.
  37. ^Dison, Denis (September 20, 2023)."NRDC Action Fund Endorses 51 House, Senate Incumbents".NRDC Action Fund. RetrievedSeptember 20, 2023.
  38. ^"Meet Our 2024 Candidates".Peace Action. RetrievedJuly 28, 2023.
  39. ^"Planned Parenthood Action Fund Endorses Reproductive Rights Champions Baldwin, Brown, Gillibrand, Rosen, Tester for Re-Election in 2024".www.plannedparenthoodaction.org. RetrievedJuly 31, 2023.
  40. ^"2024 Endorsements".Population Connection Action Fund. RetrievedAugust 25, 2023.
  41. ^"Reproductive Freedom for All Endorses Sen. Jon Tester for Reelection to the U.S. Senate for Montana".Reproductive Freedom for All. December 13, 2023. RetrievedDecember 21, 2023.
  42. ^"Make a high-impact donation—without all the usual drama".Swing Left.
  43. ^"AFA Endorsed Candidates for 2024 Election".Association of Flight Attendants-CWA. RetrievedApril 29, 2024.
  44. ^"Our Recommended Candidates".Education Votes. RetrievedFebruary 14, 2024.
  45. ^abc"2024 Election United States Senate - Montana".fec.gov.Federal Election Commission. RetrievedAugust 11, 2023.
  46. ^abc"Montana Secretary of State".electionresults.mt.gov. RetrievedOctober 3, 2024.
  47. ^Warren, Bradley (June 27, 2023)."Tim Sheehy announces run for U.S. Senate in Montana".KULR-8 Local News. RetrievedJune 27, 2023.
  48. ^Rafferty, Melissa (October 18, 2023)."Brad Johnson announces he's running for U.S. Senate in Montana".KPAX-TV. RetrievedOctober 18, 2023.
  49. ^Ambarian, Jonathan (October 19, 2023)."Millions already spent in highly watched Montana U.S. Senate race".KTVH-DT. RetrievedOctober 26, 2023.One other Republican has decided not to stay in the race for U.S. Senate. Jeremy Mygland, who owns a construction business...announced last week that he would instead run for the Montana Senate. In his statement, he praised Rosendale and encouraged him to enter the race to challenge Tester.
  50. ^Zanona, Melanie (March 8, 2024)."GOP Rep. Matt Rosendale of Montana says he is not running for reelection | CNN Politics".CNN. RetrievedMarch 8, 2024.
  51. ^abVakil, Carolin (June 29, 2023)."Montana governor backs Tim Sheehy in Senate race".The Hill.
  52. ^abWarren, Bradley (July 5, 2023)."Congressman Ryan Zinke officially endorses Tim Sheehy for US Senate".Nonstop Local—ABC FOX.There was speculation Zinke could enter the race, but that speculation now shut down with this endorsement.
  53. ^Corrin, Noah; Warren, Bradley (July 10, 2023)."Montana Democrat Monica Tranel announces run for U.S. Congress".KTMF. RetrievedJuly 10, 2023.Zinke plans to run for reelection, setting up a potential rematch of the 2022 race.
  54. ^"Trump backs Sheehy in Montana Senate race".www.thehill.com. February 9, 2024. RetrievedFebruary 9, 2024.
  55. ^"No. 3 Senate Republican endorses Tim Sheehy in Montana in attempt to consolidate support".Washington Examiner. July 10, 2023. RetrievedJuly 13, 2023.
  56. ^Weaver, Al (June 27, 2023)."GOP gets its wish with Sheehy in Montana: 'A blank canvas with a big checkbook'".The Hill. RetrievedJuly 13, 2023.
  57. ^ab"Tim Sheehy receives another major endorsement in Montana Senate bid to unseat Democrat Tester".Fox News. July 11, 2023.
  58. ^"Tom Cotton Endorses Tim Sheehy in Montana Senate Race".National Review. June 27, 2023.
  59. ^McCormack, John (June 27, 2023)."Montana's Steve Daines Endorses Former Navy SEAL Tim Sheehy in Senate GOP Primary".The National Review. RetrievedJune 27, 2023.
  60. ^ab"Tim Sheehy receives another major endorsement in Montana Senate bid to unseat Democrat Tester | Fox News".www.foxnews.com. RetrievedFebruary 11, 2024.
  61. ^"Senate Republicans try to stop messy Montana primary".Politico. June 28, 2023.
  62. ^"GOP goes all-out to avoid another Senate primary mess".Politico. July 11, 2023.
  63. ^"Sen. Tommy Tuberville endorses Tim Sheehy in Montana Senate race".The Gazette. RetrievedJanuary 19, 2024.
  64. ^Gick, Justin (February 4, 2024)."Gov. Burgum endorses Tim Sheehy for Montana's Senate race".www.kfyrtv.com. RetrievedFebruary 11, 2024.
  65. ^"Popular GOP governor announces endorsement in key battleground Senate race: 'Accomplishes missions'".Fox News. February 9, 2024. RetrievedFebruary 9, 2024.
  66. ^Gillespie, Brandon."Former Navy SEAL seeking to oust three-term Democratic senator builds momentum with more big-name support".Fox News.
  67. ^"Marjorie Taylor Green Endorses Tim Sheehy for Senate".NonStop Local.
  68. ^"Rosendale seeking reelection to Montana House seat after dropping out of Senate race".The Hill.
  69. ^Action, A. F. P. (November 2, 2023)."Americans for Prosperity Action Endorses Tim Sheehy for U.S. Senate".AFP Action. RetrievedNovember 2, 2023.
  70. ^Action, G.O.A. (October 4, 2024)."GOA Grades".GOA Victory Fund. RetrievedOctober 4, 2024.
  71. ^Action, N. R. S. C. (July 28, 2023)."NRSC-backed GOP Senate candidate Tim Sheehy makes first ad buy in Montana".Washington Examiner. RetrievedJuly 28, 2023.
  72. ^NRA-PVF."NRA-PVF | Grades | Montana".NRA-PVF. Archived from the original on May 13, 2024. RetrievedMay 13, 2024.
  73. ^"Senate Conservatives Fund".www.senateconservatives.com. RetrievedMay 13, 2024.
  74. ^Stacy, Nicole (January 30, 2024)."SBA Pro-Life America's Candidate Fund Endorses Tim Sheehy for U.S. Senate".SBA Pro-Life America. RetrievedJanuary 30, 2024.
  75. ^Sivak, David (February 9, 2024)."Rosendale mounts lonely quest for Senate in Montana".Washington Examiner. RetrievedFebruary 9, 2024.
  76. ^abBender, Michael (February 9, 2024)."G.O.P. Primary Fight for Senate Begins in Montana, a Top Battleground".The New York Times. RetrievedFebruary 9, 2024.
  77. ^abTully-McManus, Katherine; Mutnick, Ally (August 17, 2023)."Matt Rosendale nabbed two big Montana statehouse endorsements ahead of a potential Senate run".www.politico.com. Politico.
  78. ^"GOA Endorses Matt Rosendale in Montana Senate Race | GOA". RetrievedFebruary 10, 2024.
  79. ^Munce, Ryan (November 14, 2023)."Montana Senate Primary Election - 2024".Politico.
  80. ^Fabrizio, Tony; Lee, David; Tunis, Travis (November 7, 2023)."POWERED BY VOTERS DESIRE FOR AN OUTSIDER, SHEEHY LEADS ROSENDALE IN MONTANA GOP PRIMARY"(PDF).FiveThirtyEight.
  81. ^"Montana - Prepared by J.L. Partners"(PDF).J.L. Partners. August 31, 2023.
  82. ^"Montana Survey Results"(PDF).Public Policy Polling. June 21, 2023.
  83. ^ab"Montana Statewide Survey w/ GOP Oversample".Scribd. March 8, 2023.
  84. ^Sagnor, Denali (November 14, 2023)."Kalispell Libertarian Sid Daoud Announces Third-Party Senate Run".Flathead Beacon. RetrievedNovember 16, 2023.
  85. ^Lutey, Tom (August 21, 2024)."Green Party candidate files to join U.S. Senate race".Montana Free Press. RetrievedAugust 23, 2024.
  86. ^Lutey, Tom (August 21, 2024)."Green Party candidate files to join U.S. Senate race".Montana Free Press. RetrievedNovember 5, 2024.He told Montana Free Press last week that he didn't want to be considered the spoiler in what's expected to be a tight race between Tester and Sheehy.
  87. ^Miller, Blair (August 26, 2024)."Montana Democratic Party sues to keep Green Party off U.S. Senate ballot • Daily Montanan".
  88. ^"Montana Supreme Court denies Democratic Party's request for control of Green Party case".
  89. ^"2024 Senate Race ratings".Cook Political Report. RetrievedJanuary 25, 2023.
  90. ^"Senate Ratings".Inside Elections. January 6, 2023. RetrievedJanuary 10, 2023.
  91. ^"2024 Senate".Sabato's Crystal Ball. January 24, 2023. RetrievedFebruary 13, 2023.
  92. ^"2024 Senate prediction map".elections2024.thehill.com/.The Hill. June 8, 2024. RetrievedJuly 11, 2024.
  93. ^"Election Ratings".Elections Daily. August 1, 2023. RetrievedAugust 2, 2023.
  94. ^"'24 Senate Forecast".CNalysis. RetrievedNovember 21, 2023.
  95. ^"Battle for the Senate 2024".RealClearPolitics. RetrievedAugust 5, 2024.
  96. ^"2024 Senate Forecast".Split Ticket. May 25, 2023. RetrievedOctober 23, 2024.
  97. ^Lee, Bobby (June 14, 2024)."Tulsi Gabbard endorses Tim Sheehy".NonStop Local. RetrievedOctober 7, 2024.
  98. ^Mutnick, Ally (October 15, 2024)."John Thune doles out the money as he runs for Senate GOP leader".Politico. RetrievedOctober 17, 2024.
  99. ^"Ron DeSantis doubles down on Montana Senate endorsement". September 18, 2024. RetrievedSeptember 18, 2024.
  100. ^Messer, Emily (October 2, 2024)."Tim Sheehy and Charlie Kirk rally at UM".Montana Kaimin. RetrievedOctober 7, 2024.
  101. ^Isenstadt, Alex (September 2, 2024)."Ben Shapiro loves trolling liberals. Republicans are putting that to use".Politico. RetrievedNovember 9, 2025.
  102. ^"U.S. Senate candidate from Montana Tim Sheehy endorsed by the National Rifle Association". RetrievedAugust 29, 2024.
  103. ^abVakil, Caroline (August 6, 2024)."Jon Tester's campaign launches "Republicans for Tester" group".The Hill. RetrievedAugust 7, 2024.
  104. ^"Fight Like Hell PAC".Fight Like Hell PAC. RetrievedSeptember 30, 2024.
  105. ^abc"Tester campaign unveils list of "Republicans for Tester" in Senate race".KTVH. August 6, 2024. RetrievedAugust 8, 2024.
  106. ^Kurtz, Josh (July 10, 2024)."Dunn's new PAC backs 10 Democratic Senate candidates, including Alsobrooks".Maryland Matters. Maryland Matters. RetrievedJuly 11, 2024.
  107. ^NCPSSM."National Seniors' Group Proudly Endorses Tester, Tranel in Montana".NCPSSM. RetrievedJune 24, 2024.
  108. ^Brown, Matthew (October 29, 2024)."Tester, Sheehy do battle in your mailbox".Montana Free Press. RetrievedOctober 31, 2024.
  109. ^"2024 Montana Senate - Sheehy vs. Tester".RealClearPolling. RetrievedJanuary 12, 2025.
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  111. ^"2024 Polls: Montana Senate".270toWin. RetrievedJanuary 12, 2025.
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  114. ^"October 2024 Montana Poll: Sheehy 50%, Tester 46%".Emerson College Polling. October 27, 2024.
  115. ^"Mountain States Poll - October 2024"(PDF).Montana State University Billings. October 30, 2024.
  116. ^Goldmacher, Shane (October 10, 2024)."Republicans Appear Poised to Take Control of Senate, New Poll Shows".The New York Times.
  117. ^"Montana Statewide Survey - Public Opinion Strategies"(PDF).Montana GOP. October 9, 2024.
  118. ^"Polling data on Biden-Harris gas car ban and EV mandate policies"(PDF).American Fuel & Petrochemical Manufacturers. October 1, 2024.
  119. ^"Napolitan News Service Survey"(PDF).Napolitan Institute. September 24, 2024.
  120. ^Bridges, Kate (September 5, 2024)."Sheehy Leads Tester by 16 Points in Montana Senate Race".AARP.doi:10.26419/res.00813.034.
  121. ^"Montana Statewide Survey - Public Opinion Strategies"(PDF).Montana GOP. August 25, 2024.
  122. ^"Toplines - NUSA August 2024 Montana".Rasmussen Reports. August 30, 2024.
  123. ^"Montana Senate: Tester 49% Sheehy 44%".Napolitan Institute. August 15, 2024.
  124. ^"New poll shows Sheehy holds slim lead over Tester in U.S. Senate race".KULR8. August 13, 2024.
  125. ^"Montana 2024 Poll: Trump 55%, Harris 40%".Emerson College Polling. August 8, 2024.
  126. ^"Progressive Policy Institute - Nationwide Healthcare Poll"(PDF).Progressive Policy Institute. July 30, 2024.
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  128. ^Rogers, John (June 27, 2024)."June 2024 Survey of Likely Montana Voters".X.
  129. ^"Montana Statewide Poll"(PDF).Public Opinion Strategies. June 13, 2024.
  130. ^Fabrizio, Tony; Tunis, Travis (June 17, 2024)."MONTANA WANTS TO VOTE GOP – SHEEHY LEADS TESTER".Politico.
  131. ^Mutnick, Ally (June 26, 2024)."Pro-Sheehy super PAC launches $4M ad buy in Montana Senate race".Politico. RetrievedJune 26, 2024.
  132. ^"Montana Senate race"(PDF).J.L. Partners. April 8, 2024.
  133. ^"Montana 2024 Poll: U.S. Senate Tester 44%, Sheehy 42%".Emerson College Polling. March 6, 2024.
  134. ^abc"US Senate Look-Ahead in Montana: Democrat Tester Holds off Three Potential GOP Rivals".SurveyUSA. February 16, 2024.
  135. ^"Montana 2024 Poll: Democratic Senator Jon Tester Holds Narrow Lead Over Republican Challenger Tim Sheehy".Emerson College Polling. October 17, 2023.
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  137. ^abcEaton, Jake (February 9, 2023)."MONTANA 2024".Google Drive.
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