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2024 United States Senate election in Minnesota

From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

2024 United States Senate election in Minnesota
← 2018November 5, 20242030 →
 
NomineeAmy KlobucharRoyce White
PartyDemocratic (DFL)Republican
Popular vote1,792,4411,291,712
Percentage56.20%40.50%
County results
Congressional district results
Precinct results
Klobuchar:     40–50%     50–60%     60–70%     70–80%     80–90%     >90%
White:     40–50%     50–60%     60–70%     70–80%     80–90%     >90%
Tie:     40–50%
U.S. senator before election

Amy Klobuchar
Democratic (DFL)

Elected U.S. Senator

Amy Klobuchar
Democratic (DFL)

Elections in Minnesota
Presidential elections
Presidential primaries
Senate elections
House of Representatives
Gubernatorial elections
Lieutenant gubernatorial elections
Secretary of State elections
State Auditor elections
Attorney General elections

The2024 United States Senate election in Minnesota was held on November 5, 2024, to elect a member of theUnited States Senate to represent the state ofMinnesota.Democratic incumbentAmy Klobuchar won a fourth term in office, defeatingRepublican former basketball playerRoyce White by a 15.7% margin.[1] Primary elections took place on August 13, 2024.[2]

Background

[edit]

Minnesota is considered to be a slightly to moderatelyblue state at the federal level. In the2020 presidential election,Joe Biden carried Minnesota by about seven percentage points. Democrats control both U.S. Senate seats, all statewide executive offices, and both state legislative chambers.[3][4]

Klobuchar was first elected in2006, defeating former U.S. RepresentativeMark Kennedy. She won re-election in2012 and2018 by large margins.[5]

This race was considered to be clearly favoring Klobuchar, as she had won all three of her previous Senate elections by more than 20 points and typically over-performs other down-ballot candidates.[6]

Democratic–Farmer–Labor primary

[edit]

Candidates

[edit]

Nominee

[edit]

Eliminated in primary

[edit]
  • Steve Carlson, business consultant and perennial candidate[8]
  • Ahmad Hassan, businessman and perennial candidate[8]
  • George Kalberer, financial management executive and candidate forMinnesota's 1st congressional district in2022[8]
  • Ole Savior, artist and perennial candidate[8]

Endorsements

[edit]
Amy Klobuchar

U.S representatives

Organizations

Political parties

Fundraising

[edit]
Campaign finance reports as of July 24, 2024
CandidateRaisedSpentCash on hand
Amy Klobuchar (DFL)$18,972,719$16,340,965$6,567,231
Source:Federal Election Commission[22]

Results

[edit]
Results by county:
  Klobuchar—90.0–92.5%
  Klobuchar—92.5–95.0%
  Klobuchar—95.0–97.5%
  Klobuchar—97.5–100%

Klobuchar swept the primary, earning more than 90% of the vote in every county of the state. She recorded her best performance inPope County, while her worst performance was inAnoka County. There, she came the closest to slipping below 90%, having won 90.00471% of the vote.[23]

Democratic (DFL) primary results[24]
PartyCandidateVotes%
Democratic (DFL)Amy Klobuchar (incumbent)305,05594.29%
Democratic (DFL)Steve Carlson9,5352.95%
Democratic (DFL)Ahmad Hassan4,8911.51%
Democratic (DFL)Ole Savior2,4780.77%
Democratic (DFL)George Kalberer1,5780.49%
Total votes323,537100.0%

Republican primary

[edit]

Candidates

[edit]

Nominee

[edit]

Eliminated in primary

[edit]
  • John Berman, engineer and perennial candidate[26]
  • Loner Blue, retiree and convicted felon[8]
  • Joe Fraser, banker[27]
  • Alycia Gruenhagen, food co-op manager and Democratic candidate forMinnesota's 7th congressional district in2020 and2022[8]
  • Patrick Munro, landscaping company owner and perennial candidate[26]
  • Raymond Petersen, truck driver[8]
  • Christopher Seymore, teacher and perennial candidate[8]

Declined

[edit]

Endorsements

[edit]
Joe Fraser

U.S. senators

Statewide officials

Organizations

Royce White

U.S. representatives

Individuals

Political parties

Fundraising

[edit]
Campaign finance reports as of July 24, 2024
CandidateRaisedSpentCash on hand
Joe Fraser (R)$68,438$45,860$22,578
Royce White (R)$132,721$79,782$52,940
Source:Federal Election Commission[22]

Results

[edit]
county
Results by county
Map legend
  •   White—20–30%
  •   White—30–40%
  •   White—40–50%
  •   White—50–60%
  •   Fraser—20–30%
  •   Fraser—30–40%
  •   Gruenhagen—30–40%
  •   Gruenhagen—40–50%
congressional district
Results by congressional district
Map legend
  •   White—30–40%
  •   White—40–50%
Republican primary results[24]
PartyCandidateVotes%
RepublicanRoyce White74,81438.50%
RepublicanJoe Fraser56,90929.29%
RepublicanRaymond Petersen16,2378.36%
RepublicanAlycia Gruenhagen15,0177.73%
RepublicanJohn Berman14,1587.29%
RepublicanPatrick Munro9,4444.86%
RepublicanChristopher Seymore5,0202.58%
RepublicanLoner Blue2,7271.40%
Total votes194,326100.0%

Third-party and independent candidates

[edit]

Candidates

[edit]

Declared

[edit]

General election

[edit]

Predictions

[edit]
SourceRankingAs of
The Cook Political Report[37]Solid DNovember 9, 2023
Inside Elections[38]Solid DNovember 9, 2023
Sabato's Crystal Ball[39]Safe DNovember 9, 2023
Decision Desk HQ/The Hill[40]Safe DAugust 26, 2024
Elections Daily[41]Safe DMay 4, 2023
CNalysis[42]Solid DNovember 21, 2023
RealClearPolitics[43]Solid DAugust 5, 2024
Split Ticket[44]Safe DOctober 30, 2024
538[45]Solid DOctober 31, 2024

Polling

[edit]

Aggregate polls

Source of poll
aggregation		Dates
administered		Dates
updated		Amy
Klobuchar (DFL)		Royce
White (R)		Undecided
[a]		Margin
RealClearPolitics[46]October 16 - November 4, 2024November 4, 202452.0%39.0%9.0%Klobuchar +13.0%
538[47]through November 4, 2024November 4, 202451.2%38.4%10.4%Klobuchar +12.8%
270toWin[48]October 16 - November 4, 2024November 4, 202449.7%36.0%14.3%Klobuchar +13.7%
Average51.0%37.8%11.2%Klobuchar +13.2%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size[b]		Margin
of error		Amy
Klobuchar (DFL)		Royce
White (R)		OtherUndecided
AtlasIntel[49]November 1–4, 20242,065 (LV)± 2.0%53%41%4%[c]2%
Research Co.[50]November 2–3, 2024450 (LV)± 4.6%55%38%3%[d]4%
ActiVote[51]October 8–31, 2024400 (LV)± 4.9%56%44%––
Chism Strategies[52]October 28–30, 2024534 (LV)± 4.2%52%35%3%[e]11%
SurveyUSA[53][A]October 24–28, 2024728 (LV)± 4.0%52%35%3%10%
Embold Research[54][B]October 16–22, 20241,734 (LV)± 2.4%52%40%2%[f]6%
Redfield & Wilton Strategies[55][C]October 12–14, 2024544 (LV)± 3.9%42%35%5%[g]19%
Redfield & Wilton Strategies[56][C]September 27 – October 2, 2024551 (LV)± 3.9%46%38%6%[h]11%
SurveyUSA[57][A]September 23–26, 2024646 (LV)± 4.3%53%35%5%8%
Redfield & Wilton Strategies[58][C]September 16–19, 2024703 (LV)± 3.5%42%34%7%[i]17%
Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy[59][D]September 16–18, 2024800 (LV)± 3.5%51%40%1%[j]8%
Redfield & Wilton Strategies[60][C]September 6–9, 2024617 (LV)± 3.7%42%36%5%[k]16%
Embold Research[61][B]September 4–8, 20241,616 (LV)± 2.8%52%41%–7%
SurveyUSA[62][A]August 27–29, 2024635 (LV)± 4.5%50%36%4%11%
Redfield & Wilton Strategies[63][C]August 25–28, 2024426 (LV)± 4.4%41%34%8%[l]18%
SurveyUSA[64][A]July 23–25, 2024656 (LV)± 4.4%55%33%4%8%
Fox News[65]July 22–24, 20241,071 (RV)± 3.0%57%40%–2%
Emerson College[66][E]June 13–18, 20241,000 (RV)± 3.0%48%37%4%10%
SurveyUSA[67][A]June 12–16, 2024626 (LV)± 4.5%49%35%4%12%
Hypothetical polling

Amy Klobuchar vs. Joe Fraser

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size[b]		Margin
of error		Amy
Klobuchar (DFL)		Joe
Fraser (R)		OtherUndecided
SurveyUSA[64][A]July 23–25, 2024656 (LV)± 4.4%54%33%4%10%
Emerson College[66][E]June 13–18, 20241,000 (RV)± 3.0%47%37%5%10%
SurveyUSA[67][A]June 12–16, 2024626 (LV)± 4.5%49%36%4%11%
SurveyUSA[68][A]May 8–11, 2024625 (LV)± 4.3%48%34%5%12%
SurveyUSA[69][A]April 3–7, 2024608 (LV)± 4.9%51%34%6%10%
SurveyUSA[70][A]February 23–28, 20241,603 (LV)± 3.0%49%33%5%14%

Results

[edit]
2024 United States Senate election in Minnesota[71]
PartyCandidateVotes%±%
Democratic (DFL)Amy Klobuchar (incumbent)1,792,44156.20%−4.11%
RepublicanRoyce White1,291,71240.50%+4.29%
LibertarianRebecca Whiting55,2151.73%N/A
IndependenceJoyce Lacey46,3771.45%N/A
Write-in3,5780.11%+0.07%
Total votes3,189,323100.00%N/A
Democratic (DFL)hold
Shift by county
Trend by county
Legend
  •   Republican — >15%
  •   Republican — +12.5−15%
  •   Republican — +10−12.5%
  •   Republican — +7.5−10%
  •   Republican — +5−7.5%
  •   Republican — +2.5−5%
  •   Republican — +0−2.5%
  •   Democratic — +0−2.5%
  •   Democratic — +2.5−5%
  •   Democratic — +5−7.5%
  •   Democratic — +7.5-10%
  •   Democratic — +10−12.5%
  •   Democratic — +12.5−15%
  •   Democratic — >15%

By county

[edit]

Source[72]

CountyAmy Klobuchar
DFL		Royce White
Republican		Rebecca Whiting
Libertarian		Joyce Lacey
Independence		Write-inMarginTotal
Votes%Votes%Votes%Votes%Votes%Votes%
Aitkin4,13540.21%5,85756.95%1511.47%1311.27%100.10%-1,722-16.74%10,284
Anoka106,87151.85%91,38044.34%4,1402.01%3,4641.68%2560.12%15,4917.52%206,111
Becker7,53938.71%11,48958.99%2061.06%2331.20%80.04%-3,950-20.28%19,475
Beltrami12,39050.43%11,28745.90%4471.82%4361.77%180.07%1,1034.49%24,578
Benton8,43537.81%13,04858.49%4552.04%3551.59%150.07%-4,613-20.68%22,308
Big Stone1,22543.67%1,51654.05%321.14%291.03%30.11%-291-10.37%2,805
Blue Earth19,13553.60%15,18542.54%7232.03%6181.73%380.11%3,95011.06%35,699
Brown5,85140.69%8,13756.58%1921.34%1961.36%50.03%-2,286-15.90%14,381
Carlton11,05654.19%8,65042.40%3341.64%3451.69%170.08%2,40611.79%20,402
Carver34,47050.60%31,72046.56%1,1601.70%7371.08%410.06%2,7504.04%68,128
Cass7,29438.28%11,25959.10%2381.25%2501.31%110.06%-3,965-20.81%19,052
Chippewa2,74844.09%'3,32053.26%821.32%801.28%30.05%-572-9.18%6,233
Chisago13,67339.14%20,20557.84%5631.61%4551.30%360.10%-6,532-18.70%34,932
Clay17,75055.24%13,22041.14%5871.83%5511.71%260.08%4,53014.10%32,134
Clearwater1,37929.26%3,20367.96%711.51%581.23%20.04%-1,824-38.70%4,713
Cook2,51769.65%1,00027.67%451.25%491.36%30.08%1,51741.98%3,614
Cottonwood2,40540.67%3,32856.28%821.39%971.64%10.02%-923-15.61%5,913
Crow Wing16,45139.48%23,95357.49%6301.51%6041.45%260.06%-7,502-18.01%41,664
Dakota153,60960.18%93,16036.50%4,5451.78%3,6211.42%3100.12%60,44923.68%255,245
Dodge4,90539.87%6,99256.83%2061.67%1911.55%90.07%-2,087-16.96%12,303
Douglas10,17941.40%13,74155.89%3891.58%2671.09%110.04%-3,562-14.49%24,587
Faribault3,09140.30%4,30556.13%1291.68%1391.81%60.08%-1,214-15.83%7,670
Fillmore5,42844.53%6,41752.65%1671.37%1691.39%80.07%-989-8.11%12,189
Freeborn7,81847.84%8,01349.03%2331.43%2731.67%60.04%-195-1.19%16,343
Goodhue13,62948.03%13,94749.15%4461.57%3451.22%70.02%-318-1.12%28,374
Grant1,57644.99%1,79151.13%461.31%892.54%10.03%-215-6.14%3,503
Hennepin513,64472.77%168,90323.93%12,1961.73%9,8241.39%1,2600.18%344,74148.84%705,827
Houston4,81143.00%6,03653.95%1751.56%1631.46%30.03%-1,225-10.95%11,188
Hubbard5,20838.69%7,88658.58%2101.56%1481.10%90.07%-2,678-19.89%13,461
Isanti8,83734.84%15,64261.67%4571.80%4071.60%200.08%-6,805-26.83%25,363
Itasca11,74144.39%14,06553.18%3581.35%2681.01%150.06%-2,324-8.79%26,447
Jackson2,07637.41%3,32759.95%771.39%681.23%20.04%-1,251-22.54%5,550
Kanabec3,37135.60%5,79761.22%1621.71%1361.44%30.03%-2,426-25.62%9,469
Kandiyohi9,52241.54%12,79755.83%3271.43%2631.15%110.05%-3,275-14.29%22,920
Kittson1,18948.31%1,22649.82%180.73%281.14%00.00%-37-1.50%2,461
Koochiching2,94044.18%3,53753.16%881.32%861.29%30.05%-597-8.97%6,654
Lac Qui Parle1,79045.40%2,04851.94%501.27%531.34%20.05%-258-6.54%3,943
Lake3,91657.23%2,74740.15%991.45%781.14%20.03%1,16917.09%6,842
Lake of the Woods72131.44%1,51466.03%261.13%321.40%00.00%-793-34.58%2,293
Le Sueur6,99440.86%9,57055.90%2771.62%2651.55%130.08%-2,576-15.05%17,119
Lincoln1,25839.58%1,81557.11%451.42%581.83%20.06%-557-17.53%3,178
Lyon5,43642.41%6,97654.42%1881.47%2101.64%90.07%-1,540-12.01%12,819
Mahnomen1,08450.65%99746.59%231.07%351.64%10.05%874.07%2,140
Marshall1,76435.92%3,01061.29%701.43%641.30%30.06%-1,246-25.37%4,911
Martin4,06538.26%6,27259.04%1411.33%1391.31%70.07%-2,207-20.77%10,624
McLeod8,20939.25%11,98557.30%3701.77%3301.58%210.10%-3,776-18.05%20,915
Meeker4,79135.45%8,30661.46%2331.72%1791.32%60.04%-3,515-26.01%13,515
Mille Lacs5,18434.88%9,09961.22%2992.01%2731.84%90.06%-3,915-26.34%14,864
Morrison5,79329.13%13,49567.87%2831.42%3021.52%120.06%-7,702-38.73%19,885
Mower9,38650.57%8,41545.34%3321.79%4182.25%100.05%9715.23%18,561
Murray1,76037.55%2,79659.65%511.09%781.66%20.04%-1,036-22.10%4,687
Nicollet10,40854.48%8,09442.37%3171.66%2701.41%140.07%2,31412.11%19,103
Nobles3,10338.66%4,65457.98%1301.62%1391.73%10.01%-1,551-19.32%8,027
Norman1,57448.67%1,54947.90%551.70%551.70%10.03%250.77%3,234
Olmsted52,32858.70%34,07738.23%1,5201.71%1,1601.30%630.07%18,25120.47%89,148
Otter Tail14,12539.10%21,08558.37%3981.10%4971.38%190.05%-6,960-19.27%36,124
Pennington3,16243.40%3,87953.24%1171.61%1221.68%60.08%-717-9.84%7,286
Pine6,52739.51%9,43157.09%2741.66%2741.66%130.08%-2,904-17.58%16,519
Pipestone1,46830.87%3,15466.33%611.28%671.41%50.11%-1,686-35.46%4,755
Polk6,13340.62%8,55856.68%2281.51%1711.13%80.05%-2,425-16.06%15,098
Pope3,16044.31%3,76852.84%1071.50%911.28%50.07%-608-8.53%7,131
Ramsey198,50773.64%60,71922.52%5,3141.97%4,5131.67%5220.19%137,78851.11%269,575
Red Lake88642.45%1,12754.00%371.77%331.58%40.19%-241-11.55%2,087
Redwood3,07537.34%4,93759.95%1041.26%1141.38%50.06%-1,862-22.61%8,235
Renville3,23140.64%4,48856.45%961.21%1291.62%70.09%-1,257-15.81%7,951
Rice19,23553.88%15,36243.03%5951.67%4781.34%310.09%3,87310.85%35,701
Rock1,81034.32%3,28362.25%881.67%931.76%00.00%-1,473-27.93%5,274
Roseau2,84334.07%5,26263.06%1151.38%1231.47%20.02%-2,419-28.99%8,345
St. Louis72,29461.64%41,27335.19%2,0451.74%1,5341.31%1320.11%31,02126.45%117,278
Scott44,40850.24%41,01846.40%1,6011.81%1,2891.46%780.09%3,3903.84%88,394
Sherburne21,18337.42%33,34158.90%1,1722.07%8751.55%350.06%-12,158-21.48%56,606
Sibley3,19938.06%4,94958.87%1421.69%1111.32%50.06%-1,750-20.82%8,406
Stearns36,58743.28%45,22553.49%1,4311.69%1,2311.46%690.08%-8,638-10.22%84,543
Steele9,08944.43%10,60151.83%3621.77%3861.89%170.08%-1,512-7.39%20,455
Stevens2,26644.84%2,66752.27%631.25%561.11%20.04%-401-7.93%5,054
Swift2,16443.53%2,66753.65%611.23%741.49%50.10%-503-10.12%4,971
Todd4,40332.71%8,65164.28%1841.37%2191.63%20.01%-4,248-31.56%13,459
Traverse81545.81%90650.93%251.41%331.85%00.00%-91-5.12%1,779
Wabasha5,73043.01%7,19453.99%2091.57%1861.40%50.04%-1,464-10.99%13,324
Wadena2,39830.36%5,29567.04%1051.33%941.19%60.08%-2,897-36.68%7,898
Waseca4,20640.88%5,78956.27%1441.40%1471.43%20.02%-1,583-15.39%10,288
Washington96,67858.04%64,56238.76%2,9421.77%2,2491.35%1470.09%32,11619.28%166,578
Watonwan2,17444.99%2,48851.49%791.63%891.84%20.04%-314-6.50%4,832
Wilkin1,29839.51%1,87557.08%521.58%591.80%10.03%-577-17.56%3,285
Winona13,47449.67%12,80647.21%4261.57%4091.51%130.05%6682.46%27,128
Wright35,33340.23%49,50056.36%1,6921.93%1,2551.43%450.05%-14,167-16.13%87,825
Yellow Medicine2,12139.55%3,10357.86%701.31%651.21%40.07%-982-18.31%5,363
Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican
[edit]

By congressional district

[edit]

Klobuchar won five of eight congressional districts, including one that elected a Republican.[73]

DistrictKlobucharWhiteRepresentative
1st49.3%47.5%Brad Finstad
2nd57.0%39.6%Angie Craig
3rd63.2%33.6%Dean Phillips (118th Congress)
Kelly Morrison (119th Congress)
4th70.1%26.3%Betty McCollum
5th81.6%14.8%Ilhan Omar
6th44.8%51.8%Tom Emmer
7th39.7%57.4%Michelle Fischbach
8th47.8%49.0%Pete Stauber

Notes

[edit]
  1. ^Calculated by taking the difference of 100% and all other candidates combined.
  2. ^abKey:
    A – all adults
    RV – registered voters
    LV – likely voters
    V – unclear
  3. ^"Other" with 2%; "Blank/Null/Won't vote" with 2%
  4. ^"Some other candidate" with 3%
  5. ^Joyce Lacey (I) with 2%; Rebecca Whiting (L) with 1%
  6. ^"Would not vote" with 2%
  7. ^"Won't vote if these are the candidates" with 2%; Lacey (I) with 2%; Whiting (L) with 1%
  8. ^"Won't vote if these are the candidates" with 3%; Lacey (I) with 2%; Whiting (L) with 1%
  9. ^Lacey (I) with 3%; "Won't vote if these are the candidates" with 4%
  10. ^ "Someone else" with 1%
  11. ^Lacey (I) with 2%; Whiting (L), "Won't vote if these are the candidates", and "Other" with 1%
  12. ^Lacey (I) with 3%; "Won't vote if these are the candidates" with 3%; "Other" with 2%

Partisan clients

  1. ^abcdefghijPoll sponsored byKSTP-TV,WDIO-TV, andKAAL
  2. ^abPoll sponsored byMinnPost
  3. ^abcdePoll sponsored byThe Daily Telegraph
  4. ^Poll sponsored by theStar Tribune,Minnesota Public Radio, andKARE
  5. ^abPoll sponsored byThe Hill

References

[edit]
  1. ^"Live Minnesota election results: Sen. Amy Klobuchar wins race". Fox 9. November 5, 2024. RetrievedNovember 5, 2024.
  2. ^"2024 State Primary Election Dates".www.ncsl.org. RetrievedMay 13, 2023.
  3. ^"Live election results: 2020 Minnesota results".www.politico.com. RetrievedApril 19, 2023.
  4. ^Faircloth, Ryan; Tribune, Briana Bierschbach Star (November 9, 2022)."Democrats take control of the Minnesota Legislature".Star Tribune. RetrievedApril 19, 2023.
  5. ^"Minnesota Secretary Of State - 2006 General Election Results".www.sos.state.mn.us. RetrievedApril 19, 2023.
  6. ^Golshan, Tara (February 10, 2019)."Sen. Amy Klobuchar has won every one of her elections by huge margins. Now she's running for president".Vox. RetrievedApril 19, 2023.
  7. ^Everett, Burgess (October 5, 2022)."Senate Dems face brutal 2024 map with at least eight undecided incumbents".Politico. RetrievedOctober 5, 2022.Sen. Amy Klobuchar (D-Minn.) said she's made it 'very clear' she's running again
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  19. ^"2024 Planned Parenthood Action Fund Endorsed Candidates".Planned Parenthood Action Fund. RetrievedNovember 6, 2023.
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  26. ^abFrisk, Garrett (July 5, 2023)."Minnesota Democrat Amy Klobuchar Challenged by Two Republicans".Diamond Eye Candidate Report. RetrievedJuly 5, 2023.
  27. ^Brown, Kyle (January 29, 2024)."West metro Republican launches campaign challenging Klobuchar for Senate seat".KSTP.com 5 Eyewitness News. RetrievedJanuary 30, 2024.
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  30. ^Smilk, Carin M. (July 25, 2024)."RJC endorses Joe Fraser in Minnesota Senate race".JNS.org. RetrievedJuly 26, 2024.
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  32. ^Hank Long (June 18, 2024)."Campaigns trade barbs, tout high-profile endorsements as GOP Senate primary heats up".Alpha News. RetrievedJune 24, 2024.Royce White announced Tuesday that his campaign has the support of Kari Lake.
  33. ^Kashiwagi, Sydney (August 13, 2024)."Royce White and Joe Fraser face off in GOP primary for U.S. Senate".Star Tribune. RetrievedAugust 13, 2024.
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  73. ^"Home - Election Results".

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