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2024 United States Senate election in Arizona

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Not to be confused with2024 Arizona Senate election.

2024 United States Senate election in Arizona
← 2018
November 5, 2024
2030 →
 
NomineeRuben GallegoKari Lake
PartyDemocraticRepublican
Popular vote1,676,3351,595,761
Percentage50.06%47.65%
County results
Congressional district results
Precinct results
Gallego:     40–50%     50–60%     60–70%     70–80%     80–90%     >90%
Lake:     40–50%     50–60%     60–70%     70–80%     80–90%     >90%
Tie:     40–50%     50%     No votes
U.S. senator before election

Kyrsten Sinema
Independent

Elected U.S. senator

Ruben Gallego
Democratic

Main article:2024 United States Senate elections
Elections in Arizona

The2024 United States Senate election in Arizona was held on November 5, 2024, to elect a member of theUnited States Senate to represent the state ofArizona.Democratic CongressmanRuben Gallego won his first term in office, defeatingRepublican former news anchorKari Lake. He succeededindependent incumbentKyrsten Sinema, who did not seek a second term.[1]

Sinema, who was elected as a Democrat, was considered vulnerable to a primary challenge due to frequently opposing her party's legislative agenda. After preparing a re-election bid as an independent, Sinema announced she would retire from the Senate.[2][1] Gallego ran unopposed in the Democratic primary. Lake, the Republican nominee in the2022 Arizona gubernatorial election, won her party's nomination with 55% of the vote against Pinal County sheriffMark Lamb. The election was considered among the most competitive Senate races in 2024.[3] Most polls and ratings had Gallego as the favorite to win.[4][5] Gallego defeated Lake by 2.41 percentage points, a closer race than polls had projected for most of the campaign. Republican presidential candidateDonald Trump'swider-than-expected victory in the state likely contributed to this, but there was also a significant amount ofticket splitting between the presidential and senatorial races.

Gallego outperformedKamala Harris by the fourth-largest margin among Democratic Senate candidates in 2024, and the largest margin for a non-incumbent.[6] Gallego particularly benefitted from ticket splitting amongHispanics, who according to exit polls gave Gallego 60% of their votes, compared to 54% for Harris.[7] Specifically, Gallego received 93,475 more votes than Harris, while Lake received 174,481 fewer votes than Donald Trump. This election marked the fourth consecutive election cycle in which Democrats won a Senate election in Arizona.

This was the first time that Arizona voted for candidates of different political parties for U.S. senator and president since DemocratDennis DeConciniwas reelected as RepublicanGeorge H. W. Bushcarried the state in 1988. Gallego also became the first Latino elected to the Senate from Arizona, a state with a large Latino population.[8] This was the first time since 2006 that any candidate won a majority of the vote in this seat.

Background

[edit]

Arizona was once considered aRepublican stronghold, but has become a criticalswing state. Both parties have seen success in the state in recent years. As of May 2024, Democrats control thegovernorship, most other statewide offices, and both U.S. Senate seats, while Republicans control both houses of theArizona State Legislature and a 6–3 majority of Arizona's U.S. House delegation.[9][10] Republican presidential candidateDonald Trump won Arizona by 3.5% in2016,[11] while Democratic presidential candidateJoe Biden prevailed by 0.3% in2020.[12]

Democratic primary

[edit]

Prior to her departure from the Democratic Party, Sinema was considered highly vulnerable to aprimary challenge due to her opposition to several parts of theDemocratic Party's legislative agenda. Prospective polling showed Sinema trailing all of her potential challengers by wide margins, with U.S. RepresentativeRuben Gallego being viewed by numerous political analysts as the frontrunner to challenge her.[13] On January 22, 2022, theArizona Democratic Party voted overwhelmingly tocensure Sinema for a second time for voting against a carve-out to theSenate filibuster rule in a Democratic-led effort to pass theJohn Lewis Voting Rights Act.[14] Sinema did not support theInflation Reduction Act until after Democratic leaders agreed to remove a provision closing the so-calledcarried interest tax loophole, the closure of which would have raised taxes onhedge fund owners andinvestment managers.[15] This action renewed calls from Democrats for Sinema to face a primary opponent in her next election.[16]

Sinema left the Democratic Party in December 2022 and registered as an independent, while continuing to be counted as part of theSenate Democratic Caucus.[2]

Candidates

[edit]

Nominee

[edit]

Declined

[edit]

Endorsements

[edit]
Ruben Gallego

Federal officials

U.S. senators

U.S. representatives

Statewide officials

State legislators

Local officials

Individuals

Political parties

Labor unions

Organizations

Tribes

Polling

[edit]
Hypothetical polling

Ruben Gallego vs. Alexander Keller

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size[a]		Margin
of error		Ruben
Gallego		Alexander
Keller		OtherUndecided
Emerson College[69]August 2–4, 2023571 (LV)–48%6%6%[b]40%

Ruben Gallego vs. Kate Gallego vs. Kathy Hoffman vs. Regina Romero vs. Kyrsten Sinema vs. Greg Stanton

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size[a]		Margin
of error		Kate
Gallego		Ruben
Gallego		Kathy
Hoffman		Regina
Romero		Kyrsten
Sinema		Greg
Stanton		Undecided
Data for Progress (D)[70]January 21–24, 2022673 (LV)± 4.0%–74%––16%–10%
–66%––17%–17%
Noble Predictive Insights[71]November 1–8, 2021229 (RV)± 6.5%–47%––24%–29%
––44%–24%–32%
––––25%47%28%
Data for Progress (D)[72][A]October 8–10, 2021467 (LV)± 5.0%9%23%–9%19%13%26%
60%–––25%–15%
–62%––23%–15%
–––55%26%–19%
––––24%59%17%

Results

[edit]
Democratic primary results[73]
PartyCandidateVotes%
DemocraticRuben Gallego498,927100.0%
Total votes498,927100.0%

Republican primary

[edit]

Candidates

[edit]

Nominee

[edit]

Eliminated in primary

[edit]

Declined

[edit]

Endorsements

[edit]
Kari Lake

U.S. presidents

U.S. senators

U.S. representatives

Statewide officials

State officials

State senators

State representatives

Organizations

Individuals

Mark Lamb

Organizations

Fundraising

[edit]
Campaign finance reports as of July 10, 2024
CandidateRaisedSpentCash on hand
Kari Lake$10,352,741$8,290,053$2,062,687
Mark Lamb$2,059,130$1,795,730$263,400
Source:Federal Election Commission[117]

Polling

[edit]
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size[a]		Margin
of error		Kari
Lake		Mark
Lamb		OtherUndecided
Noble Predictive Insights[118]July 22–23, 2024438 (LV)± 4.7%49%38%7%[c]2%
Noble Predictive Insights[119]May 7–14, 2024364 (RV)± 5.1%46%21%9%25%
Rasmussen Reports (R)[120][B]February 21–26, 2024469 (LV)± 3.0%55%26%7%12%
Noble Predictive Insights[121]February 6–13, 2024384 (RV)± 5.0%54%21%9%[d]17%
Hypothetical polling
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size[a]		Margin
of error		Abe
Hamadeh		Kari
Lake		Mark
Lamb		Jim
Lamon		Blake
Masters		Karrin Taylor
Robson		Brian
Wright		OtherUndecided
Noble Predictive Insights[122]October 25–31, 20231,010 (RV)± 3.1%–40%14%–10%–4%–33%
Emerson College[69]August 2–4, 2023667 (LV)± 3.7%–42%11%2%7%–2%–28%
J.L. Partners[123]April 10–12, 2023550 (LV)± 4.2%4%38%8%3%7%10%–2%29%

Results

[edit]
Results by county:
  Lake
  •   50–60%
  •   60–70%
  Lamb
  •   50–60%
  •   60–70%
Republican primary results[73]
PartyCandidateVotes%
RepublicanKari Lake409,33955.28%
RepublicanMark Lamb292,88839.56%
RepublicanElizabeth Jean Reye38,2085.16%
Total votes740,435100.0%

Green primary

[edit]

The Arizona Green Party endorsed the write-in campaign of Quintana and was "actively opposed" to Hernandez and Norton's campaigns.[124] A press release on the national Green Party's website states that party leaders allege that Norton is a plant for the Democratic Party and that Hernandez is a plant for the Republican Party.[125]

Candidates

[edit]

Nominee

[edit]

Eliminated in primary

[edit]
  • Mike Norton, nonprofit executive[126]
  • Arturo Hernandez[76]

Endorsements

[edit]
Eduardo Heredia Quintana

Political parties

Fundraising

[edit]
Campaign finance reports as of June 30, 2024
CandidateRaisedSpentCash on hand
Mike Norton$84,401$76,692$7,708
Source:Federal Election Commission[117]

Results

[edit]
Green primary results[73]
PartyCandidateVotes%
GreenEduardo Heredia Quintana(write-in)28249.47%
GreenMike Norton18031.58%
GreenArturo Hernandez10818.95%
Total votes570100.0%

Independents

[edit]

Candidates

[edit]

Declined

[edit]

Endorsements

[edit]
Kyrsten Sinema(declined)

U.S. senators

Individuals

Organizations

Fundraising

[edit]
Campaign finance reports as of March 31, 2024
CandidateRaisedSpentCash on hand
Kyrsten Sinema$17,047,387$7,065,565$10,153,343
Source:Federal Election Commission[117]

General election

[edit]

Predictions

[edit]
SourceRankingAs of
Elections Daily[130]Likely D(flip)October 9, 2024
CNalysis[131]Likely D(flip)October 15, 2024
RealClearPolitics[132]Lean D(flip)October 3, 2024
Sabato's Crystal Ball[133]Lean D(flip)September 6, 2024
Inside Elections[4]Lean D(flip)October 10, 2024
The Cook Political Report[5]Lean D(flip)September 12, 2024
Decision Desk HQ/The Hill[134]Lean D(flip)September 20, 2024
Split Ticket[135]Lean D(flip)October 23, 2024
538[136]Likely D(flip)October 23, 2024

Campaign strategy

[edit]

Gallego's campaign emphasized his military service record, highlighting his deployment toIraq as aMarine Corps infantryman.[137] His campaign positioned his military credentials as evidence of his ability to work across party lines and appeal to independent voters.[138] Lake's campaign focused on her alignment with Trump and emphasized border security and election integrity issues.[139]

Post-primary endorsements

[edit]
Ruben Gallego (D)

Executive branch officials

Statewide officials

State legislators

Mayors

Organizations

Kari Lake (R)

U.S. Senators

Governors

Local officials

Organizations

Debates

[edit]
2024 Arizona U.S. Senate election debate
No.DateHostModeratorsLinkDemocraticRepublican
Key:
 P Participant  A Absent  N Not invited  I Invited W  Withdrawn
GallegoLake
1October 10, 2024Clean ElectionsSteve Goldstein
Nohelani Graf		[154]PP

Post-primary fundraising

[edit]
Campaign finance reports as of October 16, 2024
CandidateRaisedSpentCash on hand
Ruben Gallego (D)$56,843,786$55,360,823$2,759,538
Kari Lake (R)$21,396,539$18,239,291$3,157,247
Source:Federal Election Commission[117]

Polling

[edit]

Aggregate polls

Source of poll
aggregation		Dates
administered		Dates
updated		Ruben
Gallego (D)		Kari
Lake (R)		Undecided
[e]		Margin
FiveThirtyEight[155]through November 4, 2024November 4, 202449.4%45.3%5.3%Gallego +4.1%
RealClearPolitics[156]October 20 – November 4, 2024November 4, 202448.8%45.6%5.4%Gallego +3.2%
270toWin[157]October 22 – November 4, 2024November 4, 202449.5%44.3%6.2%Gallego +5.2%
TheHill/DDHQ[158]through November 4, 2024November 4, 202449.3%45.8%4.9%Gallego +3.5%
Average49.3%45.3%5.4%Gallego +4.0%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size[a]		Margin
of error		Ruben
Gallego (D)		Kari
Lake (R)		OtherUndecided
AtlasIntel[159]November 3–4, 2024875 (LV)± 3.0%48%48%2%[f]2%
Victory Insights (R)[160]November 2–3, 2024750 (LV)–50%47%–3%
The Trafalgar Group (R)[161]November 1–3, 20241,090 (LV)± 2.9%49%49%–2%
Patriot Polling (R)[162]November 1–3, 2024801 (RV)± 3.0%51%48%––
InsiderAdvantage (R)[163]November 1–2, 2024800 (LV)± 3.0%49%47%1%3%
AtlasIntel[164]November 1–2, 2024967 (LV)± 3.0%47%49%2%[f]2%
Emerson College[165][C]October 30 – November 2, 2024900 (LV)± 3.2%50%45%–5%
New York Times/Siena College[166]October 25 – November 2, 20241,025 (LV)± 3.4%50%45%–4%
1,025 (RV)± 3.4%51%43%–6%
Morning Consult[167]October 23 – November 1, 2024666 (LV)± 4.0%50%42%–8%
AtlasIntel[168]October 30–31, 20241,005 (LV)± 3.0%48%49%2%[f]1%
OnMessage (R)[169]October 29–31, 2024800 (LV)–48%48%–4%
YouGov[170][D]October 25–31, 2024856 (LV)± 4.4%49%45%–6%
880 (RV)49%44%–7%
ActiVote[171]October 5–31, 2024400 (LV)± 4.9%54%46%––
Noble Predictive Insights[172]October 28–30, 2024775 (LV)± 3.5%48%44%4%[g]3%
Data for Progress (D)[173]October 25–30, 20241,079 (LV)± 3.0%50%45%2%[h]4%
Rasmussen Reports (R)[174][E]October 25–29, 2024803 (LV)± 3.0%48%44%4%[i]4%
AtlasIntel[175]October 25–29, 20241,458 (LV)± 3.0%48%48%2%[f]2%
Mitchell Research & Communications[176]October 28, 2024610 (LV)± 4.0%50%46%3%[j]5%
50%47%–3%
Data Orbital (R)[177]October 26–28, 2024550 (LV)± 4.3%45%45%5%[k]6%
RABA Research[178]October 25–27, 2024589 (RV)± 4.0%49%34%8%[l]9%
The Trafalgar Group (R)[179]October 24–26, 20241,094 (LV)± 2.9%50%46%–4%
CNN/SRSS[180]October 21–26, 2024781 (LV)± 4.4%51%43%6%[m]1%
Marist College[181]October 17–22, 20241,193 (LV)± 3.7%53%45%–2%
1,329 (RV)± 3.5%53%45%–1%
HighGround Public Affairs[182]October 19–20, 2024400 (LV)± 4.9%52%42%2%[n]4%
InsiderAdvantage (R)[183]October 19–20, 2024800 (LV)± 3.0%50%46%1%[o]3%
University of Arizona/Truedot[184]October 12–20, 2024846 (RV)± 3.4%51%36%2%[p]11%
Redfield & Wilton Strategies[185][F]October 16–18, 2024691 (LV)± 3.5%48%41%5%[q]7%
AtlasIntel[186]October 12–17, 20241,440 (LV)± 3.0%50%46%2%[f]2%
CBS News/YouGov[187]October 11–16, 20241,403 (LV)± 3.3%54%45%1%[r]–
Morning Consult[167]October 6–15, 2024653 (LV)± 3.0%52%40%3%5%
Redfield & Wilton Strategies[188][F]October 12–14, 20241,141 (LV)± 2.7%47%42%4%[s]7%
The Trafalgar Group (R)[189]October 10–13, 20241,090 (LV)± 2.9%48%44%3%[t]6%
New York Times/Siena College[190]October 7–10, 2024808 (LV)± 3.8%48%41%–10%
808 (RV)± 3.8%48%39%–12%
ActiVote[191]September 8 – October 10, 2024400 (LV)± 4.9%53%47%––
Emerson College[192][C]October 5–8, 20241,000 (LV)± 3.0%50%43%–7%
SoCal Strategies (R)[193][G]October 5–7, 2024735 (LV)–51%39%–10%
RMG Research[194][H]September 30 – October 2, 2024783 (LV)± 3.5%50%41%4%[u]5%
52%[v]42%1%[r]5%
Redfield & Wilton Strategies[195][F]September 27 – October 2, 2024555 (LV)± 3.9%48%42%3%[w]7%
Fabrizio Ward (R)/
Impact Research (D)[196][I]		September 24 – October 1, 2024600 (LV)± 4.0%51%44%1%[x]4%
InsiderAdvantage (R)[197]September 29–30, 2024800 (LV)± 3.0%50%43%1%[o]6%
HighGround Public Affairs[198][J]September 26–29, 2024500 (LV)± 4.4%51%41%2%[n]5%
National Research Inc.[199][K]September 25–29, 2024600 (LV)± 4.0%48%42%2%[h]8%
Emerson College[200][L]September 27–28, 2024920 (LV)± 3.2%52%41%–7%
AtlasIntel[201]September 20–25, 2024946 (LV)± 3.0%50%46%2%[f]2%
BSG (R)/GS Strategy Group (D)[202][M]September 19–25, 2024409 (LV)–51%39%4%[u]6%
54%41%–5%
Fox News[203]September 20–24, 2024764 (LV)± 3.5%55%42%1%[y]1%
1,021 (RV)± 3.0%56%42%1%[y]1%
Suffolk University[204][N]September 19–24, 2024500 (LV)± 4.4%47%41%5%[z]8%
Marist College[205]September 19–24, 20241,264 (LV)± 3.8%54%44%–1%
1,416 (RV)± 3.6%53%44%–2%
Rasmussen Reports (R)[206][E]September 19–22, 20241,030 (LV)± 3.0%47%45%4%[i]4%
New York Times/Siena College[207]September 17–21, 2024713 (LV)± 4.1%49%43%–8%
713 (RV)± 4.1%50%41%–9%
Redfield & Wilton Strategies[208][F]September 16–19, 2024789 (LV)± 3.2%46%41%3%[w]9%
Emerson College[209][C]September 15–18, 2024868 (LV)± 3.3%48%42%–10%
Morning Consult[167]September 9–18, 2024862 (LV)± 3.0%53%39%–8%
The Trafalgar Group (R)[210]September 11–12, 20241,088 (LV)± 2.9%47%43%4%[i]5%
Redfield & Wilton Strategies[211][F]September 6–9, 2024765 (LV)± 3.3%48%42%2%[aa]8%
Morning Consult[167]August 30 – September 8, 2024901 (LV)± 3.0%49%41%3%7%
YouGov[212][D]August 23 – September 3, 2024900 (RV)± 4.2%50%42%–9%
InsiderAdvantage (R)[213]August 29–31, 2024800 (LV)± 3.0%49%45%2%[ab]4%
University of Arizona/Truedot[214]August 28–31, 20241,155 (RV)–47%36%4%[ac]13%
CNN/SRSS[215]August 23–29, 2024682 (LV)± 4.7%47%44%8%[ad]–
Redfield & Wilton Strategies[216][F]August 25–28, 2024530 (LV)± 4.0%42%37%3%[ae]17%
Emerson College[217][C]August 25–28, 2024720 (LV)± 3.6%49%42%–9%
Fox News[218]August 23–26, 20241,014 (RV)± 3.0%56%41%2%[af]1%
Noble Predictive Insights[219]August 12–16, 20241,003 (RV)± 3.1%47%40%–13%
Redfield & Wilton Strategies[220][F]August 12–15, 2024592 (LV)± 3.7%44%39%4%[ag]13%
New York Times/Siena College[221]August 8–15, 2024677 (RV)± 4.1%49%41%–10%
677 (LV)± 4.4%51%42%–8%
WPA Intelligence (R)[222][O]August 11–13, 2014600 (LV)± 4.0%48%46%3%[ah]3%
Peak Insights (R)[223][P]July 31 – August 5, 2024800 (LV)± 3.0%46%46%–8%
HighGround Public Affairs[224]July 30 – August 5, 2024500 (LV)± 4.4%50%39%3%[ai]9%
Redfield & Wilton Strategies[225][F]July 31 – August 3, 2024567 (LV)± 3.8%42%36%–22%
BSG (R)/GS Strategy Group (D)[226][M]July 26 – August 2, 2024435 (LV)–51%42%–7%
July 30, 2024Primary elections held
Emerson College[227][Q]July 22–23, 2024800 (RV)± 3.4%46%42%–12%
July 21, 2024Joe Biden withdraws from the presidential race
Public Policy Polling (D)[228][R]July 19–20, 2024736 (RV)–49%42%–9%
Rasmussen Reports (R)[229][S]July 5–12, 20241,101 (LV)± 3.0%44%41%7%[aj]8%
Public Policy Polling (D)[230][T]July 10–11, 2024596 (RV)–50%47%–4%
J.L. Partners (R)[231][U]July 10–11, 2024513 (LV)± 4.3%43%44%–3%
YouGov[232][D]July 4–12, 2024900 (RV)± 3.9%48%41%2%9%
793 (LV)–49%42%2%8%
Expedition Strategies[233][V]June 24 – July 8, 2024268 (LV)–49%45%–7%
Remington Research Group (R)[234][W]June 29 – July 1, 2024638 (LV)–47%47%–6%
North Star Opinion Research (R)[235][X]June 17–20, 2024600 (LV)± 4.0%39%38%9%[ak]13%
Emerson College[236][C]June 13–18, 20241,000 (RV)± 3.0%45%41%–14%
Rasmussen Reports (R)[237]June 11–13, 2024750 (RV)± 4.0%44%41%5%[al]10%
40%39%7%[am]14%
Fabrizio Ward (R)/
Impact Research (D)[238][I]		May 28 – June 4, 2024600 (LV)± 4.0%48%45%–7%
Mainstreet Research/FAU[239]May 19–21, 2024609 (RV)± 4.0%44%38%–18%
501 (LV)± 4.0%48%39%–13%
CBS News/YouGov[240]May 10–16, 20241,214 (RV)± 3.5%49%36%–15%
Noble Predictive Insights[119]May 7–14, 20241,003 (RV)± 3.1%46%36%–18%
BSG (R)/GS Strategy Group (D)[241][M]May 6–13, 2024527 (LV)± 4.3%46%41%–13%
New York Times/Siena College[242]April 28 – May 9, 2024626 (RV)± 4.0%45%41%–14%
626 (LV)± 4.0%46%43%–11%
Data Orbital (R)[243]April 27–29, 2024550 (LV)± 4.3%48%44%–8%
Emerson College[244][C]April 25–29, 20241,000 (RV)± 3.0%45%43%–12%
RABA Research[245]March 28–31, 2024503 (RV)± 4.4%36%28%13%[an]23%
Emerson College[246]March 12–15, 20241,000 (RV)± 3.0%44%40%–16%
March 5, 2024Kyrsten Sinema announces she will not seek re-election.
Rasmussen Reports (R)[247][B]February 21–26, 20241,000 (LV)± 3.0%42%45%4%[ao]9%
Emerson College[248][C]February 16–19, 20241,000 (RV)± 3.0%46%39%–15%
Noble Predictive Insights[121]February 6–13, 20241,002 (RV)± 3.1%47%37%–16%
J.L. Partners (R)[249][U]January 29 – February 1, 2024500 (RV)–44%46%–10%
Public Policy Polling (D)[250][Y]January 5–6, 2024590 (V)± 4.0%45%46%–9%
Cygnal (R)[251]October 24–25, 2023600 (LV)± 4.0%46%43%–11%
McLaughlin & Associates (R)[252][Z]October 24, 2023–± 4.4%49%44%–7%
National Research Inc. (R)[253]October 8–9, 2023400 (LV)± 4.9%44%44%–12%
Public Policy Polling (D)[254][AA]October 6–7, 2023522 (V)± 4.3%48%43%–9%
Noble Predictive Insights[255]July 13–17, 20231000 (RV)± 3.1%45%35%–20%
Noble Predictive Insights[256]January 31 – February 9, 20231,000 (RV)± 3.1%43%33%–24%
Normington Petts (D)[257][AB]January 18–23, 2023800 (LV)± 3.5%50%45%–5%
Public Policy Polling (D)[258][AA]December 21, 2022650 (V)± 3.8%48%47%–5%
Hypothetical polling

Ruben Gallego vs. Kari Lake vs. Kyrsten Sinema

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size[a]		Margin
of error		Ruben
Gallego (D)		Kari
Lake (R)		Kyrsten
Sinema (I)		OtherUndecided
Rasmussen Reports (R)[247][B]February 21–26, 20241,000 (LV)± 3.0%33%37%21%2%[ap]7%
Emerson College[248][C]February 16–19, 20241,000 (RV)± 3.0%36%30%21%–13%
Noble Predictive Insights[121]February 6–13, 20241,002 (RV)± 3.1%34%31%23%–12%
J.L. Partners (R)[249][U]January 29 – February 1, 2024500 (RV)–39%40%13%–8%
Public Policy Polling (D)[250][Y]January 5–6, 2024590 (V)± 4.0%36%35%17%–12%
VCreek/AMG (R)[259][AC]December 1–8, 2023694 (LV)± 3.7%35%41%16%1%[r]7%
Tulchin Research (D)[260][AD]November 13–20, 2023800 (LV)± 3.5%39%34%17%6%[aq]4%
Noble Predictive Insights[261]October 25–31, 20231,010 (RV)± 3.1%39%33%29%––
Cygnal (R)[251]October 24–25, 2023600 (LV)± 4.0%36%37%15%–11%
McLaughlin & Associates (R)[252][Z]October 24, 2023–± 4.4%41%37%17%–5%
National Research Inc. (R)[253]October 8–9, 2023400 (LV)± 4.9%33%37%19%–10%
Public Policy Polling (D)[254][AA]October 6–7, 2023522 (V)± 4.3%41%36%15%–8%
Noble Predictive Insights[255]July 13–17, 20231000 (RV)± 3.1%34%25%26%–15%
Public Policy Polling (D)[262][AA]April 18–19, 2023559 (V)–42%35%14%–9%
Noble Predictive Insights[256]January 31 – February 9, 20231,000 (RV)± 3.1%34%26%19%–21%
Normington Petts (D)[257][AB]January 18–23, 2023800 (LV)± 3.5%36%36%24%––
Blueprint Polling (D)[263]January 5–8, 2023618 (V)± 3.9%32%36%14%–19%
Public Policy Polling (D)[258][AA]December 21, 2022678 (V)± 3.8%40%41%13%–6%

Ruben Gallego vs. Kari Lake vs. "An Independent / third-party candidate"

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size[a]		Margin
of error		Ruben
Gallego (D)		Kari
Lake (R)		Generic
independent		Undecided
The Bullfinch Group[264]March 29 – April 3, 2024600 (RV)± 4.0%41%41%10%8%

Ruben Gallego vs. Doug Ducey vs. Kyrsten Sinema

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size[a]		Margin
of error		Ruben
Gallego (D)		Doug
Ducey (R)		Kyrsten
Sinema (I)		Undecided
Noble Predictive Insights[256]January 31 – February 9, 20231,000 (RV)± 3.1%38%34%–28%
32%27%17%23%
Normington Petts (D)[257][AB]January 18–23, 2023800 (LV)± 3.5%37%31%27%5%

Ruben Gallego vs. Blake Masters vs. Kyrsten Sinema

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size[a]		Margin
of error		Ruben
Gallego (D)		Blake
Masters (R)		Kyrsten
Sinema (I)		Undecided
Public Policy Polling (D)[254][AA]October 6–7, 2023522 (V)± 4.3%41%31%17%11%
Noble Predictive Insights[255]July 13–17, 20231000 (RV)± 3.1%44%36%–20%
32%24%28%16%
Noble Predictive Insights[256]January 31 – February 9, 20231,000 (RV)± 3.1%43%32%–26%
33%24%22%21%

Ruben Gallego vs. Karrin Taylor-Robson vs. Kyrsten Sinema

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size[a]		Margin
of error		Ruben
Gallego (D)		Karrin Taylor
Robson (R)		Kyrsten
Sinema (I)		Undecided
Noble Predictive Insights[256]January 31 – February 9, 20231,000 (RV)± 3.1%36%32%–32%
31%24%21%25%

Ruben Gallego vs. Mark Lamb vs. Kyrsten Sinema

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size[a]		Margin
of error		Ruben
Gallego (D)		Mark
Lamb (R)		Kyrsten
Sinema (I)		Undecided
Noble Predictive Insights[122]October 25–31, 20231,010 (RV)± 3.1%36%32%32%0%
Public Policy Polling (D)[254][AA]October 6–7, 2023522 (V)± 4.3%40%31%16%13%
Emerson College[69]August 2–4, 20231,337 (RV)± 2.6%42%42%–16%
36%29%21%15%
Noble Predictive Insights[255]July 13–17, 20231000 (RV)± 3.1%40%36%–24%
33%25%24%18%
Public Policy Polling (D)[262][AA]April 18–19, 2023559 (V)–43%33%15%9%

Ruben Gallego vs. Jim Lamon vs. Kyrsten Sinema

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size[a]		Margin
of error		Ruben
Gallego (D)		Jim
Lamon (R)		Kyrsten
Sinema (I)		Undecided
Public Policy Polling (D)[262][AA]April 18–19, 2023559 (V)–43%27%16%14%

Ruben Gallego vs. Brian Wright vs. Kyrsten Sinema

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size[a]		Margin
of error		Ruben
Gallego (D)		Brian
Wright (R)		Kyrsten
Sinema (I)		Undecided
Emerson College[69]August 2–4, 20231,337 (RV)± 2.6%41%38%–21%
37%25%26%12%

Results

[edit]
2024 United States Senate election in Arizona[265]
PartyCandidateVotes%±%
DemocraticRuben Gallego1,676,33550.06%+0.10%
RepublicanKari Lake1,595,76147.65%+0.04%
GreenEduardo Heredia Quintana75,8682.27%–0.14%
Write-in8500.02%–
Total votes3,348,814100.0%N/A
Democraticgain fromIndependent

On November 9, 2024,Decision Desk HQ projected that Gallego had won the Senate election in Arizona.[266] On November 12, 2024, theAssociated Press projected that Gallego had defeated Lake as well.[8]

By congressional district

[edit]

Gallego won five of nine congressional districts, including two that elected Republicans.[267]

DistrictGallegoLakeRepresentative elected
1st52%47%David Schweikert
2nd45%53%Eli Crane
3rd73%24%Ruben Gallego (118th Congress)
Yassamin Ansari (119th Congress)
4th56%41%Greg Stanton
5th43%55%Andy Biggs
6th51%46%Juan Ciscomani
7th63%33%Raúl Grijalva
8th45%53%Debbie Lesko (118th Congress)
Abraham Hamadeh (119th Congress)
9th38%60%Paul Gosar
Shift by county
Trend by county
Legend
  •   Republican — >15%
  •   Republican — +12.5−15%
  •   Republican — +10−12.5%
  •   Republican — +7.5−10%
  •   Republican — +5−7.5%
  •   Republican — +2.5−5%
  •   Republican — +0−2.5%
  •   Democratic — +0−2.5%
  •   Democratic — +2.5−5%
  •   Democratic — +5−7.5%
  •   Democratic — +7.5-10%
  •   Democratic — +10−12.5%
  •   Democratic — +12.5−15%
      Democratic—+>15%

By county

[edit]
County[268]Ruben Gallego
Democratic		Kari Lake
Republican		Various candidates
Other parties		MarginTotal
#%#%#%#%
Apache19,90162.46%11,28335.41%6792.13%8,61827.05%31,863
Cochise23,34740.17%33,18457.10%1,5852.73%−9,837−16.93%58,116
Coconino42,92461.77%24,82535.73%1,7362.50%18,09926.05%69,485
Gila9,33034.14%17,43363.79%5652.07%−8,103−29.65%27,328
Graham4,23528.15%10,38569.27%3733.59%−6,150−41.02%14,993
Greenlee1,10233.56%2,07863.28%1033.17%−976−29.72%3,284
La Paz2,29230.52%4,99866.56%2192.92%−2,706−36.04%7,509
Maricopa1,045,76651.50%940,46546.31%44,4172.19%105,3015.19%2,030,648
Mohave26,57824.50%79,49473.28%2,4152.23%−52,916−48.78%108,487
Navajo22,17343.93%27,21853.92%1,0852.15%−5,045−9.99%50,476
Pima298,75159.07%193,02138.17%13,9702.76%105,73020.91%505,742
Pinal86,67441.88%115,59555.86%4,6722.26%−28,921−13.98%206,941
Santa Cruz11,98663.23%6,37033.61%5993.16%5,61629.62%18,955
Yavapai52,07735.22%93,20063.03%2,5921.75%−41,123−27.81%147,869
Yuma29,19943.50%36,21253.95%1,7072.54%−7,013−10.45%67,118
Totals1,676,33550.06%1,595,76147.65%76,6182.29%80,5742.41%3,348,814

Notes

[edit]
  1. ^abcdefghijklmKey:
    A – all adults
    RV – registered voters
    LV – likely voters
    V – unclear
  2. ^"Someone else" with 6%
  3. ^Elizabeth Jean Reye with 3%
  4. ^Brian Wright with 6%; George Nicholson with 2%; "Someone else" with 1%
  5. ^Calculated by taking the difference of 100% and all other candidates combined.
  6. ^abcdef"Blank/Null/Won't vote" with 1%; "Other" with 1%
  7. ^Quintana (G) with 2%; "Refused" with 2%
  8. ^abQuintana (G) with 2%
  9. ^abc"Other" with 4%
  10. ^Quintana (G) with 1%
  11. ^Quintana (G) with 2%; "Refused" with 2%; "I did not vote on US Senate" with 1%
  12. ^"Someone else" with 8%
  13. ^"Other" with 5%; "Neither" with 1%
  14. ^ab"Some other candidate" with 2%
  15. ^ab"Another candidate" with 1%
  16. ^"Someone Else" with 2%
  17. ^Quintana (G) with 2%; "Won't vote if these are the candidates" with 2%; "Other" with 1%
  18. ^abc"Someone else" with 1%
  19. ^"Won't vote if these are the candidates" with 2%, Quintana (G) with 1%; "Other" with 1%
  20. ^"Other" with 3%
  21. ^ab"Someone else" with 3%; "Would not vote" with 1%
  22. ^With voters who lean towards a given candidate
  23. ^ab"Won't vote if these are the candidates" with 2%, Quintana (G) with 1%
  24. ^"Other" with 1%
  25. ^ab"Wouldn't vote" with 1%
  26. ^Quintana (G) with 3%; "Refused" with 2%
  27. ^"Other" and Quintana (G) with 1%
  28. ^"Another candidate" with 2%
  29. ^"Someone Else" with 4%
  30. ^"Other" with 6%; "Neither" with 2%
  31. ^ Quintana (G) with 2%; "Other (Another Third Party/Write-In)" with 1%
  32. ^"Other" with 1%; "Wouldn't vote" with 1%
  33. ^ "Other (Another Third Party/Write-In)" with 3%; "Won't vote if these are the candidates" with 1%
  34. ^Norton (G) with 3%
  35. ^"Some other candidate" with 3%
  36. ^"Other" with 7%
  37. ^Quintana (G) with 9%
  38. ^"Other" with 5%
  39. ^Hernandez (G) with 4%; "Other" with 3%
  40. ^"Someone else" with 13%
  41. ^"Wouldn't vote" with 4%
  42. ^"Wouldn't vote" with 2%
  43. ^"Someone else" with 6%

Partisan clients

  1. ^This poll was sponsored by Primary Sinema
  2. ^abcPoll sponsored by theBull Moose Project.
  3. ^abcdefghPoll sponsored byThe Hill
  4. ^abcPoll conducted forThe Times,Stanford University,Arizona State University, andYale University
  5. ^abPoll sponsored byAmerican Thinker
  6. ^abcdefghPoll sponsored byThe Daily Telegraph
  7. ^Poll sponsored by On Point Politics
  8. ^Poll sponsored by the Napolitan Institute
  9. ^abPoll commissioned byAARP
  10. ^Poll sponsored byArizona's Family
  11. ^Poll sponsored by Democracy Defense Project
  12. ^Poll sponsored by RealClearWorld
  13. ^abcPoll sponsored byThe Cook Political Report
  14. ^Poll sponsored byUSA Today
  15. ^Poll sponsored byClub for Growth, which has endorsed Lake.
  16. ^Poll sponsored by theNational Republican Senatorial Committee, which supports Lake's campaign.
  17. ^Poll sponsored byThe Hill andNexstar
  18. ^Poll sponsored by the Clean & Prosperous America PAC.
  19. ^Poll sponsored byThe Heartland Institute
  20. ^Poll sponsored by the Progress Action Fund, which is a sponsor of the Democratic Party.
  21. ^abcPoll sponsored by Lake's campaign.
  22. ^Poll Sponsored by Progressive Policy Institute
  23. ^Poll sponsored by American Fuel & Petrochemical Manufacturers, a group that supports Republicans.
  24. ^Poll sponsored by American Greatness
  25. ^abPoll sponsored by Replace Sinema PAC.
  26. ^abPoll sponsored byNRSC.
  27. ^abcdefghiPoll sponsored by Gallego's campaign
  28. ^abcThis poll was sponsored by Progress Arizona, LUCHA, and Replace Sinema PAC
  29. ^Poll sponsored by Americas PAC, which supports Republican candidates.
  30. ^Poll conducted forStand for Children, a non-profit education advocacy group.

References

[edit]
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  85. ^Otterbein, Holly; Everett, Burgess; Mutnick, Ally (February 1, 2023)."Arizona Republicans fear they may blow it again".Politico. RetrievedFebruary 1, 2023.One candidate who has ruled out a run is Kelli Ward, former chair of the Arizona Republican Party. She told Politico she was not looking at another Senate bid
  86. ^Swan, Jonathan; Haberman, Maggie; Ulloa, Jazmine (October 10, 2023)."Trump Endorses Kari Lake's Senate Run in Arizona".The New York Times. RetrievedOctober 11, 2023.
  87. ^Mutnick, Ally (October 16, 2023)."Kari Lake locks down a key GOP establishment endorsement".Politico. Archived fromthe original on October 16, 2023. RetrievedOctober 16, 2023.
  88. ^abcdeThomas, Steff (March 1, 2024)."Lake nabs endorsements from Ernst, Risch, Cornyn in Arizona Senate race".The Hill. RetrievedMarch 2, 2024.
  89. ^Mondeaux, Cami (March 19, 2024)."More than half of GOP senators back Kari Lake as she nabs another endorsement".Washington Examiner. RetrievedMarch 19, 2024.
  90. ^Gillespie, Brandon (December 11, 2023)."Key McConnell ally makes endorsement in crucial swing state race that could flip Senate red".Fox News. RetrievedDecember 11, 2023.
  91. ^abcdefghijklmnoHansen, Ronald."Here's who has endorsed Kari Lake in Arizona's US Senate race".The Arizona Republic. RetrievedAugust 1, 2024.
  92. ^Daines, Steve (February 13, 2024)."NRSC Chair Daines Endorses Kari Lake".NRSC. RetrievedFebruary 13, 2024.
  93. ^Tonco, Brigham (March 7, 2024)."Sen. Mike Lee endorses Kari Lake for U.S. Senate in Arizona".Deseret News. RetrievedMarch 7, 2024.
  94. ^abVakil, Caroline (February 12, 2024)."Rand Paul, Gaetz endorse Kari Lake in Arizona Senate race". RetrievedFebruary 16, 2024.
  95. ^Downs, Rebecca (March 1, 2024)."Townhall Has Learned That Senator Risch Has Endorsed Kari Lake for Senate in Arizona".townhall.com. RetrievedMarch 1, 2024.
  96. ^Mondeaux, Cami (March 12, 2024)."Kari Lake pulls in more support with Eric Schmitt as latest endorsement - Washington Examiner". RetrievedMarch 12, 2024.
  97. ^Mondeaux, Cami (July 3, 2024)."Tim Scott endorses Kari Lake in Arizona Senate race - Washington Examiner".
  98. ^Joseph, Jamie (January 22, 2024)."Sens. Tuberville and Marshall endorse Trump-backed Arizona Republican Kari Lake for Senate".Fox News.
  99. ^Vakil, Caroline (February 27, 2024)."Vance endorses Lake in Arizona Senate race".The Hill. RetrievedFebruary 27, 2024.
  100. ^Gillespie, Brandon (November 2, 2023)."Kari Lake builds momentum with more big-name backing in race to flip Arizona Senate seat".Fox News. Archived fromthe original on November 2, 2023. RetrievedNovember 2, 2023.
  101. ^Mondeaux, Cami (January 19, 2024)."Kari Lake nabs another endorsement from House conservative in pivotal Senate race".Washington Examiner. RetrievedJanuary 24, 2024.
  102. ^Bates, Suzanne (October 24, 2023)."Rep. Burgess Owens endorses Arizona's Kari Lake for Senate".Deseret News. RetrievedOctober 24, 2023.
  103. ^Hansen, Ronald (November 15, 2023)."Kari Lake picks up support of No. 3 House Republican in sign the GOP is getting behind her".The Arizona Republic. RetrievedNovember 16, 2023.Stefanik, R-N.Y., who is the House Republican conference chair, said the Lake endorsement by her political action committee is the first for the Senate this election cycle.
  104. ^Husebø, Wendell (February 29, 2024)."Wesley Hunt Endorses Kari Lake for U.S. Senate".Breitbart. RetrievedMarch 7, 2024.Kari Lake is an outsider and fighter who will work to secure the border and put Arizonans First," he added. "I am excited to endorse Kari for the Senate in Arizona to bring much needed change to Washington.
  105. ^Crisp, Elizabeth (May 24, 2024)."Trump VP prospect Doug Burgum endorses Kari Lake in Arizona Senate race".The Hill. RetrievedMay 24, 2024.
  106. ^Gersony, Laura (November 1, 2023)."Kari Lake touts endorsement from Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton, who faces fraud trial".The Arizona Republic. RetrievedNovember 1, 2023.
  107. ^abHansen, Ronald (October 10, 2023)."'This mama bear has a whole lot of fight in her': Kari Lake enters Arizona's Senate race".The Arizona Republic. RetrievedOctober 11, 2023.
  108. ^ab"David N. Bossie and Citizens United Political Victory Fund Endorse Kari Lake for U.S. Senate from Arizona".Citizens United Political Victory Fund. January 23, 2024. RetrievedJanuary 24, 2024.
  109. ^"College Republicans of America is proud to announce our official endorsement of Kari Lake for U.S. Senate in Arizona!".
  110. ^"Republicans for National Renewal Endorses Kari Lake for U.S. Senate".Republicans for National Renewal. October 26, 2023. Archived fromthe original on October 26, 2023. RetrievedOctober 26, 2023.
  111. ^"It is an honor to officially endorse @KariLake for US Senate for Arizona. She is a proven fighter and champion of the American Way. The RNHA is dedicated to supporting candidates that will solve the border crisis, secure our elections, and take back America!".X.com. Republican National Hispanic Assembly. RetrievedAugust 1, 2024.
  112. ^Mutnick, Ally (February 13, 2024)."Senate GOP campaign arm endorses Kari Lake".Politico.
  113. ^"Senate Conservatives Fund".www.senateconservatives.com. RetrievedApril 2, 2024.
  114. ^"Endorsements".Turning Point Action. RetrievedDecember 14, 2023.
  115. ^Stone, Kevin."Blake Masters says he shifted 2024 focus from Senate to House after talking to Trump, Lake".KTAR.President Trump wanted Kari to run, and I think she's running a hell of a campaign so far, so I look forward to supporting her.
  116. ^Gutierrez, Marco."Primary Campaign Corner 2024: Candidates".Latinos for America First. Archived fromthe original on September 15, 2023. RetrievedSeptember 15, 2023.
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  119. ^ab"Lake Still Leading GOP Senate Primary, But Losing Ground".Noble Predictive Insights. May 22, 2024.
  120. ^"Arizona Senate: Kari Lake Leads Democrat Gallego - Demographics".Rasmussen Reports. February 28, 2024.
  121. ^abc"Arizona's Electorate Allergic to MAGA Brand in 2024 US Senate Race".Noble Predictive Insights. February 21, 2024.
  122. ^ab"October 2023 AZPOP TOPLINES AND CROSSTABS – Senate"(PDF).Noble Predictive Insights. November 16, 2023.
  123. ^"Arizona Republican primaries polling"(PDF).J.L. Partners. April 16, 2023.
  124. ^"Candidates".Arizona Green Party. RetrievedJuly 19, 2024.
  125. ^abc"Green Party candidates for Senate in Arizona draw suspicion of being plants".gp.org.
  126. ^"Arizona race for US Senate seat features highly watched battles".Daily Independent. April 17, 2024.
  127. ^Dovere, Edward-Isaac; Raju, Manu (February 17, 2023)."Key senators torn over retirement decisions as party leaders try to fortify 2024 standing".CNN Politics.CNN. RetrievedOctober 30, 2023.
  128. ^"'Sinema 2024': Meghan McCain blasts Kari Lake".NBC News. February 22, 2024. RetrievedFebruary 25, 2024.
  129. ^Rod, Marc (March 16, 2023)."AIPAC rolls out first 2024 endorsements, including vulnerable Senate Democrats".Jewish Insider.
  130. ^"Election Ratings".Elections Daily. August 1, 2023. RetrievedAugust 2, 2023.
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  137. ^Browning, Kellen (April 10, 2024)."In Arizona's Crucial Senate Race, a Liberal Fighter Courts the Center".The New York Times.
  138. ^"Ruben Gallego Arizona Senate Victory: Veteran Democrat Strategy Delivers".Alpha Democrat Research. November 12, 2024. RetrievedNovember 10, 2025.
  139. ^Browning, Kellen (April 10, 2024)."In Arizona's Crucial Senate Race, a Liberal Fighter Courts the Center".The New York Times.
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  141. ^"Fight Like Hell PAC".Fight Like Hell PAC. RetrievedSeptember 30, 2024.
  142. ^Ford, William J.; Kurtz, Josh (September 5, 2024)."Muñoz quits House, Huntley steps up to council, Boafo launches federal PAC, more moves".Maryland Matters. RetrievedSeptember 5, 2024.
  143. ^Giles, Ben (August 6, 2024)."Harris and Gallego boast endorsements from across the aisle".KJZZ. RetrievedAugust 22, 2024.
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  145. ^Giles, Ben (August 26, 2024)."Arizona Police Association endorses Ruben Gallego for U.S. Senate".KJZZ.
  146. ^Democratic Majority for Israel [@DemMaj4Israel] (September 9, 2024)."Today, DMFI PAC announced its endorsement of fourteen pro-Israel candidates running for the Democratic nomination in key U.S. House and Senate general election races. These seats are critical to electing a Democratic majority in Congress this November" (Tweet). RetrievedSeptember 9, 2024 – viaTwitter.
  147. ^"Everytown for Gun Safety Action Fund Announces First Major Round of Federal Endorsements".Everytown. August 19, 2024. RetrievedAugust 22, 2024.
  148. ^Hansen, Ronald J. (October 22, 2024)."National Latino group gives rare endorsement to Senate contender Ruben Gallego in Arizona".The Arizona Republic. RetrievedOctober 23, 2024.
  149. ^"March For Our Lives Announces First Endorsements in Races Nationwide, Starting in Arizona".March For Our Lives. September 9, 2024. RetrievedSeptember 9, 2024.
  150. ^Gancarski, A.G. (August 10, 2024)."Marco Rubio 'proud to endorse' Kari Lake in Arizona Senate race: Report".Florida Politics. RetrievedDecember 30, 2024.
  151. ^Roberts, Laurie (August 13, 2024)."Doug Ducey ditches his dignity to endorse Donald Trump and Kari Lake".The Arizona Republic.Archived from the original on August 15, 2024. RetrievedOctober 12, 2024.
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  169. ^@NYCSamKay (November 1, 2024)."We also polled the Senate races in these key states. @OnMessageInc PA: 46 McCormick / 46 Casey MI: 46 Rogers / 47 Slotkin WI: 47 Hovde / 48 Baldwin AZ: 48 Lake / 48 Gallego" (Tweet) – viaTwitter.
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  191. ^Allis, Victor (October 11, 2024)."Gallego leads in Arizona Senate Race".ActiVote.
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  257. ^abc"NEW POLL: Kyrsten Sinema Has No Path to Victory, Ruben Gallego Is Frontrunner Against Lake or Ducey".Replace Sinema PAC. February 1, 2023.
  258. ^ab"NEW POLL: Ruben Gallego Would be Strongest Candidate for 2024 Arizona Senate Race".Public Policy Polling. December 22, 2022.
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