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2024 Northern Territory general election

From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

2024 Northern Territory general election

← 202024 August 20242028 →

All 25 seats in theNorthern Territory Legislative Assembly
13 seats needed for a majority
Opinion polls
Turnout68.5% (Decrease 6.5pp)
 First partySecond partyThird party
 
Lia Finocchiaro (cropped).jpg
EvaLawler2023cropped.jpg
Greens_placeholder-01.png
LeaderLia FinocchiaroEva LawlerNo leader
PartyCountry LiberalLaborGreens
Leader since1 February 202021 December 2023N/A
Leader's seatSpillettDrysdale
(lost seat)
N/A
Last election8 seats, 31.34%14 seats, 39.43%0 seats, 4.46%
Seats before7[a]14[b]0
Seats won1741
Seat changeIncrease 9Decrease 10Increase 1
Popular vote49,73829,2928,272
Percentage48.9%28.8%8.13%
SwingIncrease 17.6Decrease 10.6Increase 3.67
TPP57.4%42.6%
TPP swingIncrease 10.4Decrease 10.4


Chief Minister before election

Eva Lawler
Labor

ElectedChief Minister

Lia Finocchiaro
Country Liberal

The2024 Northern Territory general election was held on 24 August 2024 to elect all 25 members of theLegislative Assembly in theunicameralNorthern Territory Parliament. Members were elected throughfull preferentialinstant-runoff voting insingle-member electorates. The election was conducted by theNorthern Territory Electoral Commission (NTEC).

The incumbent centre-leftLabormajoritygovernment, led byChief MinisterEva Lawler since December 2023, sought to win a third consecutive four-year term of government. They were defeated by the centre-rightCountry Liberal Party (CLP)opposition, led byOpposition LeaderLia Finocchiaro, in alandslide.[2][3]

The election saw the second-worst defeat of a sitting government in the Territory's history. From 14 seats at dissolution, Labor fell to four seats, its smallest presence in the Legislative Assembly since it entered the chamber in1977; it won no seats at the first ever Northern Territory election in1974. Labor also tallied its lowest primary vote in the Territory and suffered a complete wipeout in the urban areas ofDarwin andPalmerston. The CLP swelled to 17 seats, up from seven at dissolution, giving the party a four-seat majority. There was a largeswing to the CLP across Darwin, Palmerston andAlice Springs, as well as in the surrounding rural areas and inKatherine. The CLP swept the city of Palmerston and won all but two seats in Darwin and all but one seat in Alice Springs. The swing led to Eva Lawler losing her seat ofDrysdale to CLP candidateClinton Howe. She became the third Chief Minister and the first Labor Chief Minister lose her seat at an election.[4]

Of the four remaining seats, three were won byindependents and one by left-wing minor party theGreens, whose candidateKat McNamara defeated former Chief MinisterNatasha Fyles in the seat ofNightcliff. This marked the first time the Greens entered the Legislative Assembly in the history of the Northern Territory.[5]

For the first time in Northern Territory history, both major parties at the election were led by female leaders. Additionally, both leaders were from the city ofPalmerston; indeed, before her move to the then-new seat ofSpillett in2016, Finocchiaro was the member forDrysdale (the seat Lawler won in 2016 after Finocchiaro transferred to Spillett).Voter turnout dropped in remoteAboriginal communities, which the NTEC attributed tovoter fatigue andapathy; others suggested the rejection of theIndigenous Voice to Parliament at the2023 referendum contributed to low turnout among Indigenous voters.[6]

With the Northern Territory election results, Labor lost its first mainland state or territory since the2018 South Australian election.

Background

[edit]

This was the first election for the Northern Territory Legislative Assembly where both major political parties were led by women, and the third in any Australian state or territory, after the1995 ACT election and2020 Queensland election.

Additionally, both leaders were from the city ofPalmerston. Before her move to the then-new seat ofSpillett in2016, Finocchiaro was the member forDrysdale, the seat Lawler won in that election.

Previous election

[edit]

At the2020 election, the Labor government led by Chief MinisterMichael Gunner was re-elected with a reduced majority, winning 14 of the 25 seats in the parliament. The Country Liberals (CLP) won 8 seats, whilst theTerritory Alliance party won 1 seat and a further 2 seats were won byindependents.

Parliamentary composition

[edit]

Robyn Lambley, the Territory Alliance's sole representative in the parliament, left the party in October 2020 to sit as an independent.[7] Labor MLAMark Turner was expelled from the party-roomcaucus in February 2021 due to what he acknowledged as an "inappropriate relationship" with a Labor Party staffer, though he remained a Labor-designated member in the assembly.[8]

Aby-election was held for the seat ofDaly on 11 September 2021, caused by the resignation of CLP memberIan Sloan due to health and personal issues. Labor candidateDheran Young won the seat, the first time that an incumbent government has won a seat from the opposition in the history of the Legislative Assembly.[9]

On 10 May 2022, Chief Minister and Labor leader Michael Gunner announced his immediate resignation from both positions, citing his desire to spend more time with his family following the birth of his and his wife's second son on 29 April.[10] Following a party-room meeting on 13 May, Labor ministerNatasha Fyles was elected unopposed to the leadership, and was sworn in as the new Chief Minister later that day.[11] Gunner resigned from the seat ofFannie Bay on 27 July and aby-election was held on 20 August 2022. Labor retained the seat at the by-election, with Labor candidateBrent Potter retaining the seat despite a 7 per cent swing against the party.[12]

On 17 December 2022, Labor MP forArafuraLawrence Costa died. This triggereda by-election which was held on 18 March 2023.Manuel Brown retained the seat for Labor with a 15.6% swing towards the party on thetwo-party-preferred result.

In December 2023, it was revealed that Fyles holds 754 undeclared shares inSouth32, a company that owns amanganese mine onGroote Eylandt. Fyles faced further conflict of interest allegations and calls to resign, due to her decision earlier in 2023 to not investigate health impacts from the Groote Eylandt mine, withLeader of the OppositionLia Finocchiaro calling her actions a 'profound betrayal of public trust'.[13][14] Due to the controversy, Fyles resigned on 19 December 2023.[14]

Three independents were elected at the 2020 election, the crossbench then increased to 4 when Mark Turner was expelled from the Labor Party.

Redistribution

[edit]
A map showing the first proposal of redistribution.

A redistribution took place in preparation for the 2024 election, largely due to the rapid population growth ofPalmerston, but minor changes were also made to electorates outside the town.

The first redistribution proposal was published on 23 May 2023.[15]

Election date

[edit]

The Legislative Assembly has fixed four-year terms, with elections to be held on the fourth Saturday of August every four years.[16]

Pendulum

[edit]

Pre-election pendulum

[edit]
Government seats (14)
Marginal
Port DarwinPaul KirbyALP1.9
Fong LimMark MonaghanALP2.2
ArafuraManuel Brown[c]ALP3.6[d]
DrysdaleEva LawlerALP5.4
Fairly safe
DalyDheran Young[e]ALP6.1[f]
KaramaNgaree Ah KitALP8.3
Safe
Fannie BayBrent Potter[g]ALP10.9[h]
ArnhemSelena UiboALP15.9[i]
CasuarinaLauren MossALP16.0
GwojaChansey PaechALP16.2
JohnstonJoel BowdenALP16.0
WanguriNicole ManisonALP17.3
SandersonKate WordenALP18.8
NightcliffNatasha FylesALP24.1
Opposition seats (7)
Marginal
BarklySteve EdgingtonCLP0.1
NamatjiraBill YanCLP0.3
BraitlingJoshua BurgoyneCLP1.3
KatherineJo HerseyCLP2.5
BrennanMarie-Clare BoothbyCLP3.0
Fairly safe
NelsonGerard MaleyCLP9.2 v IND
Safe
SpillettLia FinocchiaroCLP13.5
Crossbench seats (4)
AraluenRobyn LambleyIND0.5 v CLP
BlainMark TurnerIND[j]1.3 (ALP v CLP)
MulkaYingiya Mark GuyulaIND5.1 v ALP
GoyderKezia PurickIND6.8 v CLP

Notes

[edit]
  • This pre-election pendulum is based on post-redistribution estimates of margins calculated by ABC election analystAntony Green.[17]
  • Members listed in italics are retiring at the 2024 election.

Post-election pendulum

[edit]
Government seats (17)
Marginal
Fannie BayLaurie ZioCLP0.39 v GRN
CasuarinaKhoda PatelCLP0.70
BlainMatthew KerleCLP1.92 v IND
BarklySteve EdgingtonCLP1.93
SandersonJinson CharlsCLP2.20
BraitlingJoshua BurgoyneCLP3.85 v GRN
Fairly safe
Fong LimTanzil RahmanCLP7.46
WanguriOly CarlsonCLP8.99
Safe
KaramaBrian O'GallagherCLP11.33
NamatjiraBill YanCLP11.46
Port DarwinRobyn CahillCLP11.73
KatherineJo HerseyCLP12.16 v IND
GoyderAndrew MackayCLP12.66 v IND
DrysdaleClinton HoweCLP14.96
BrennanMarie-Clare BoothbyCLP23.90
NelsonGerard MaleyCLP25.0 v IND[k]
SpillettLia FinocchiaroCLP29.58
Opposition seats (4)
Marginal
DalyDheran YoungALP2.29
Safe
ArnhemSelena UiboALP14.26
GwojaChansey PaechALP15.84
ArafuraManuel BrownALP19.68
Crossbench seats (4)
NightcliffKat McNamaraGRN0.40 v ALP
JohnstonJustine DavisIND7.64 v CLP
AraluenRobyn LambleyIND14.73 v CLP
MulkaYingiya Mark GuyulaIND25.20 v CLP

Registered parties

[edit]

At the close of nominations for the election, five parties were registered with theNorthern Territory Electoral Commission (NTEC).[18]

Candidates and retiring MLAs

[edit]

Retiring MLAs

[edit]

The following members announced that they were not contesting the 2024 election:

Labor

[edit]

Independent

[edit]

Candidates

[edit]

Finocchiaro announced the first CLP candidates in May 2023.[22]

Labor confirmed they would not contest the seat ofMulka on 1 August 2024, with Chief MinisterEva Lawler citing her party's "good relationship with and respect for" incumbent MLAYingiya Mark Guyula.[23]

Nominations closed on 8 August 2024 and the ballot draws were conducted the same day. In total, 80 candidates nominated for election, down from 111 at the previous election.[24]

This is the first election since the2008 election where the only parties to field candidates were ALP, CLP, and the Greens.

Sitting members are listed in bold. Successful candidates are highlighted in the relevant colour. Where there is possible confusion, an asterisk is used.

SeatHeld byALP candidateCLP candidateGreens candidateIndependent candidates
ArafuraALPManuel BrownYanja Thompson
AraluenIndependentGagandeep SodhiSean HeenanHugo WellsRobyn Lambley*
Wayne Wright
ArnhemALPSelena UiboIan Mongunu Gumbula
BarklyCLPLizzie HoganSteve Edgington
BlainIndependentDanielle EveleighMatthew KerleMark Turner
BraitlingCLPAllison BitarJoshua BurgoyneAsta Hill
BrennanCLPTony SieversMarie-Clare Boothby
CasuarinaALPLauren MossKhoda PatelPamela McCalmanMartin Jackson
DalyALPDheran YoungKris Civitarese
DrysdaleALPEva LawlerClinton HoweCindy Mebbingarri Roberts
Fannie BayALPBrent PotterLaurie ZioSuki Dorras-WalkerLeonard May
Fong LimALPMark MonaghanTanzil RahmanSimon NiblockAmye Un
GoyderIndependentSandy GriffinAndrew MackayBelinda Kolstad
Mathew Salter
Trevor Jenkins
GwojaALPChansey PaechJarrod Jupurula Williams
JohnstonALPJoel BowdenGary StrachanBillie BartonJustine Davis
KaramaALPNgaree Ah KitBrian O'GallagherAndy RowanJustine Glover
KatherineCLPNick LoveringJo HerseySam Phelan
MulkaIndependentAllen FanningYingiya Mark Guyula
NamatjiraCLPSheralee TaylorBill YanBlair McFarland
NelsonCLPAnthony VenesGerard MaleyBeverley Ratahi
NightcliffALPNatasha FylesHelen SecretaryKat McNamaraGeorge Mamouzellos
Mililma May
Port DarwinALPBrian ManningRobyn CahillGreg DicksonJaney Davies
Leah Potter
SandersonALPKate WordenJinson Charls
SpillettCLPCaleb BurkeLia Finocchiaro
WanguriALPShlok SharmaOly CarlsonAndrew CoatesGraeme Sawyer

Disendorsed candidates

[edit]
PartyCandidateSeatDisendorsedReason for disendorsement
GreensPeltherre Chris TomlinsAraluen8 March 2024Disendorsed over a Facebook post expressing an antisemitic conspiracy theory.[25]

Opinion polling

[edit]

Voting intention

[edit]
DateFirmPrimary voteTPP[l]
ALPCLPINDGRNSFFOTHALPCLP
2024 election28.8%48.9%14.2%8.1%42.6%57.4%
May 2024Freshwater Strategy[27]29%39%22%9%46%54%
16–18 November 2023Redbridge[28]19.7%40.6%14%13.1%9.4%2.4%[m]43.5%56.5%
2020 election39.4%31.3%10.7%4.5%N/A14.1%[n]53.3%46.7%

Campaign issues

[edit]

The most prominent issue in the campaign was crime, which has dramatically increased in the Territory in recent years.[29] Other issues included cost of living and petcrocodiles.[30]

The Country Liberal Party (CLP) had a policy to lower theage of criminal responsibility from 12 to 10 years old, reversing the Gunner government's 2022 increase.[31][32][33]

Results

[edit]
Main article:Results of the 2024 Northern Territory general election

Results summary

[edit]
This section needs to beupdated. Please help update this article to reflect recent events or newly available information.(September 2024)
Legislative Assembly (IRV) – (CV)
PartyVotes%+/–Seats+/–
Country Liberal49,73848.89Increase 17.5517Increase 9
Labor29,29228.79Decrease 10.644Decrease 10
Independents14,43914.19Increase 3.453Increase 1
Greens8,2728.13Increase 3.671Increase 1
Total101,741100.0025
Valid votes101,74196.99+0.45
Invalid/blank votes3,1603.01−0.45
Total votes104,901100.00
Registered voters/turnout153,24868.45−6.49
Source:ABC NewsNTEC
Two-party-preferred vote
Country Liberal57.4Increase 10.4
Labor42.6Decrease 10.4
Total

The CLP swept Labor from power in a massive landslide, winning 58 percent of the two-party vote on a swing of 11 percent. The swing was particularly pronounced in Darwin and Palmerston. The CLP took all of Palmerston and all but two seats in Darwin, all on swings of over 10 percent. Notably, the CLP took five out of seven seats in Darwin's northern suburbs, which had been Labor's power base in the Territory since the turn of the millennium. Labor won power for the first time in 2001 by sweeping the northern suburbs, and retained all but one seat there even when defeated in2012. It initially appeared Fyles inNightcliff would be the only Labor member left in the Darwin/Palmerston area, but the Greens narrowly defeated her to complete Labor's urban wipeout.

Lawler herself was defeated in Drysdale by CLP challengerClinton Howe on a swing of over 21 percent, enough on paper to turn it into a safe CLP seat in one stroke. She is the third head of government in the Territory and the fourth major-party leader to lose their own seat. All but two members of her cabinet were defeated, the only survivors beingDeputy Chief MinisterChansey Paech andSelena Uibo.

Seats changing hands

[edit]

Members in italics did not seek re-election.

SeatPre-electionSwingPost-election
PartyMemberMarginMarginMemberParty
BlainIndependentMark Turner[o]1.33.42.1 v INDMatthew KerleCountry Liberal
CasuarinaLaborLauren Moss16.017.11.1Khoda PatelCountry Liberal
DrysdaleLaborEva Lawler5.420.314.9Clinton HoweCountry Liberal
Fannie BayLaborBrent Potter10.911.30.8 v GRNLaurie ZioCountry Liberal
Fong LimLaborMark Monaghan2.210.38.1Tanzil RahmanCountry Liberal
GoyderIndependentKezia Purick6.819.312.5 v INDAndrew MackayCountry Liberal
JohnstonLaborJoel Bowden16.08.17.9 v CLPJustine DavisIndependent
KaramaLaborNgaree Ah Kit8.320.412.1Brian O'GallagherCountry Liberal
NightcliffLaborNatasha Fyles24.124.60.5 v ALPKat McNamaraGreens
Port DarwinLaborPaul Kirby1.914.012.1Robyn CahillCountry Liberal
SandersonLaborKate Worden18.821.02.2Jinson CharlsCountry Liberal
WanguriLaborNicole Manison17.326.39.0Oly CarlsonCountry Liberal

Notes

[edit]
  1. ^TheCountry Liberal Party lost the electorate ofDaly to Labor at a by-election in2021.
  2. ^On 18 February 2021,Mark Turner, the member forBlain, was expelled from the Labor Party caucus but remained a rank-and-file member of the party, although he sits on thecrossbench, bringing Labor's seat total to thirteen. However, Labor won the seat ofDaly from theCountry Liberal Party at the2021 Daly by-election on 11 September 2021, bringing their seat total back to fourteen. Turner was later expelled from the party completely.[1]
  3. ^Manuel Brown was elected at the2023 Arafura by-election after the death ofLawrence Costa
  4. ^3.6% was the Labor margin at the2020 general election. The Labor margin after the2023 Arafura by-election was 19.1%.
  5. ^Dheran Young was elected at the2021 Daly by-election after the resignation ofIan Sloan
  6. ^The margin after the2021 Daly by-election was 7.3% for Labor. The by-election margin adjusted for redistribution is 6.1% for Labor. The margin at the2020 general election was 1.2% for the Country Liberal Party
  7. ^Brent Potter was elected at the2022 Fannie Bay by-election after the resignation of former Chief MinisterMichael Gunner
  8. ^10.9% was the Labor margin at the2020 general election. The Labor margin after the2022 Fannie Bay by-election was 2.2%.
  9. ^The Labor margin in Arnhem at the2020 general election was 1.4% versus Independent Ian Mongunu Gumbula. Gumbula is running as a CLP candidate in the 2024 general election without the support of Mulka Independent MLA Yingiya Mark Guyula who supported him in 2020, which would make the 2020 two-party preferred result adjusted for redistribution a better measure of the contest.
  10. ^Mark Turner was expelled from the Labor Party caucus in 2021 and from the party completely in 2023.[1]
  11. ^Margin is an ABC estimate
  12. ^The TPP estimates have been manually calculated based on preference flows.[26]
  13. ^Animal Justice Party 2.4%
  14. ^Includes the now defunct,Territory Alliance, who were a 12.90% share of this figure.
  15. ^Mark Turner was elected as a Labor candidate, but was sacked from the party.

References

[edit]
  1. ^ab"NT politician Mark Turner expelled from Labor Party".ABC News. 8 June 2023.
  2. ^"Landslide victory for the CLP in NT election, as party steamrolls Labor in Darwin heartland".ABC News. 24 August 2024.
  3. ^"NT election: The Country Liberals claim a landslide victory in a contest decided in suburbia".The Conversation. 25 August 2024.
  4. ^"NT election 2024: CLP romp it home, Eva Lawler loses seat".NT News. 24 August 2024.
  5. ^Ben Raue (4 September 2024)."Greens win Nightcliff from third place".The Tally Room.
  6. ^Samantha Dick (27 August 2024)."Low remote voter turnout in 2024 NT election linked to 'fatigue' and failed Voice referendum".ABC News.
  7. ^James, Felicity (21 October 2020)."Territory Alliance party ousts Robyn Lambley, leaving it with no seats in Parliament".ABC News. Australian Broadcasting Corporation. Retrieved27 October 2020.
  8. ^Jane Gibson (18 February 2021)."Blain MLA Mark Turner exiled from NT Labor caucus as staffer resigns over scandal".ABC News.
  9. ^"Results - 2021 Division of Daly - by-election".Northern Territory Electoral Commission. 24 September 2021.Archived from the original on 27 February 2022. Retrieved27 February 2022.
  10. ^"Northern Territory Chief Minister Michael Gunner to resign".ABC News. 10 May 2022. Retrieved10 May 2022.
  11. ^"Natasha Fyles sworn in as Northern Territory Chief Minister, replacing Michael Gunner". ABC News. 13 May 2022.
  12. ^"VIDEO: Labor's Brent Potter wins Fannie Bay by-election".ABC News. 22 August 2022.
  13. ^"NT chief minister Natasha Fyles under pressure to resign over alleged undisclosed shares worth $2,000".The Guardian. Australian Associated Press. 19 December 2023.ISSN 0261-3077. Retrieved19 December 2023.
  14. ^ab"Northern Territory Chief Minister Natasha Fyles resigns amid mounting pressure over leadership".ABC News. 19 December 2023. Retrieved19 December 2023.
  15. ^"Northern Territory Election Commission". Archived fromthe original on 10 June 2023. Retrieved10 June 2023.
  16. ^Electoral Act 2004 (NT)s 23
  17. ^Green, Antony."Pendulum – NT Votes 2024".ABC Elections. ABC News. Retrieved14 August 2024.
  18. ^"Register of political parties in the Northern Territory"(PDF). NT Electoral Commission. 28 March 2024. Retrieved18 August 2024.
  19. ^Smith, Camden (28 January 2024)."Territory Labor pre-selection battle looms as candidates stand up".NT News. Retrieved13 March 2024.
  20. ^Hislop, Jack (12 January 2024)."Former NT deputy chief minister Nicole Manison will not recontest seat of Wanguri at 2024 election".ABC News. Retrieved13 March 2024.
  21. ^Morgan, Thomas (15 February 2024)."NT independent MLA Kezia Purick to retire from politics at next election in August".ABC News. Retrieved13 March 2024.
  22. ^Finocchiaro, Lia (10 May 2023)."Budget in Reply".
  23. ^Walsh, Fia (1 August 2024)."'It's a struggle': Araluen, Mulka and Nelson candidates unconfirmed less than a month from NT election".NT News. Retrieved6 August 2024.
  24. ^"List of candidates".Northern Territory Electoral Commission. 8 August 2024.
  25. ^"NT Greens candidate dumped after Facebook post resurfaces suggesting the government is 'owned' by Zionists".ABC News. 7 March 2024.
  26. ^"Australian Federal 2pp Estimator".
  27. ^"NT Labor still significantly trails Country Liberal Party on a two-party preferred basis ahead of August election, new poll reveals".SkyNews. 16 May 2024. Retrieved16 May 2024.
  28. ^"Northern Territory Social Services"(PDF).Redbridge Group. Archived fromthe original(PDF) on 29 November 2023. Retrieved29 November 2023.
  29. ^Government, Northern Territory (19 August 2019)."Crime statistics".nt.gov.au. Retrieved24 August 2024.
  30. ^"NT Australian election: Pet crocodile ban in the spotlight".BBC News. 23 August 2024. Retrieved24 August 2024.
  31. ^"NT opposition says 'everyday Territorians' are the experts on youth crime in election pitch".ABC News. 29 February 2024.
  32. ^"After eight years in the political wilderness, the CLP hopes it can return to power in the NT".ABC News. 8 August 2024.
  33. ^"Here's what the major parties have promised Territorians this election".ABC News. 10 August 2024.

External links

[edit]
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