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2024 North Dakota gubernatorial election

From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

For related races, see2024 United States gubernatorial elections.

2024 North Dakota gubernatorial election

← 2020November 5, 20242028 →
 
NomineeKelly ArmstrongMerrill PiepkornMichael Coachman
PartyRepublicanDemocratic–NPLIndependent
Running mateMichelle StrindenPatrick HartLydia Gessele
Popular vote247,05694,04320,322
Percentage68.26%25.98%5.61%

County results
Precinct results
Armstrong:     40–50%     50–60%     60–70%     70–80%     80–90%     >90%
Piepkorn:     40–50%     50–60%     60–70%     70–80%
     No votes

Governor before election

Doug Burgum
Republican

ElectedGovernor

Kelly Armstrong
Republican

Elections in North Dakota
City elections
Mayoral elections
City elections
Mayoral elections

The2024 North Dakota gubernatorial election was held on November 5, 2024, to elect thegovernor of North Dakota. IncumbentRepublican governorDoug Burgum decided to not seek re-election to a third term; he would ultimately decide torun for president. North Dakota is a Republican stronghold, and theDemocratic–Nonpartisan League (NPL) Party has not won a governor's race in the state since 1988.

The Republican nominee, U.S. representativeKelly Armstrong, was elected to his first term, defeating the Democratic–NPL nominee, state senatorMerrill Piepkorn in a landslide. Armstrong was sworn in to office in December 2024, succeeding Burgum, who was subsequently appointedSecretary of the Interior byDonald Trump immediately after leaving office.

Background

[edit]

In November 2022, voters in the state approved a constitutional amendment limiting governors to two four-year terms, but it only applies to individuals elected after January 1, 2023, so incumbent governorDoug Burgum was still eligible to run for re-election under agrandfather clause.[1] On June 7, 2023, Burgum announced that he would insteadrun for the Republican nomination forpresident of the United States in2024, a race he dropped out of on December 4, 2023. Despite considering running for a third term after the end of his presidential campaign, Burgum announced he would not run for a third term on January 22, 2024.[2]

Before Burgum's announcement, former state Senator and formercongressional candidateTom Campbell suggested at and considered a gubernatorial run, despite whatever choice Burgum made.[3][4] After the decision from Burgum to not seek re-election, Campbell entered the race.[5]

On January 23, the day after Burgum's announcement,U.S. RepresentativeKelly Armstrong announced he would also seek the governorship, receiving far more reporting than Campbell and an endorsement from Secretary of StateMichael Howe.[6][7][8][9] Following Armstrong's announcement, Campbell withdrew and switched his campaign towards theHouse seat left open by Armstrong.[10]

On January 31, Travis Hipsher, a security guard fromNeche, announced he would seek the governorship for theDemocratic-NPL.[11] Hipsher described himself as acentrist.[12]

Later on February 6,perennial candidate Michael Coachman announced an independent run for governor.[13] Coachman previously ran forgovernor in 2020, Lieutenant Governor in 2016 and 2012, and withSecretary of State in 2018.[14]

On February 15, Lieutenant GovernorTammy Miller announced her candidacy to replace Burgum.[15]

Later on March 22, it was reported that state senatorMerrill Piepkorn had filed the paperwork to run, but did not announce any campaign.[16] On March 31, Travis Hipsher ended his campaign, making way for Piepkorn's announcement on April 2.[17][18]

Republican primary

[edit]

Candidates

[edit]

Nominee

[edit]

Eliminated in primary

[edit]

Withdrawn

[edit]

Declined

[edit]

Endorsements

[edit]
Kelly Armstrong

Federal officials

U.S. Senators

U.S. Representatives

Statewide officials

Organizations

Tammy Miller

Statewide officials

Debates

[edit]

Prairie Public Broadcasting hosted a debate between Armstrong and Miller on April 23.[34] On May 2, it was announced that the Fargo-Moorhead-West Fargo Chamber of Commerce would hold a live, in person debate on May 30.[35] A third debate was held on June 7.[36]

2024 North Dakota gubernatorial election Republican primary debate
No.DateHostModeratorLinkRepublicanRepublican
Key:
 P Participant  A Absent  N Not invited  I Invited W  Withdrawn
Kelly ArmstrongTammy Miller
1April 23, 2024Prairie Public BroadcastingDave ThompsonYouTubePP
2May 30, 2024FMWF Chamber of CommercePP

Polling

[edit]
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size[a]
Margin
of error
Kelly
Armstrong
Tammy
Miller
Undecided
WPA Intelligence[37][A]May 20–22, 2024500 (LV)± 4.4%57%19%24%
DFM Research (D)[38][B]May 6–8, 2024400 (LV)± 4.9%56%18%26%
Guidant Polling and Strategy[39][C]May 4−8, 2024500 (LV)± 4.4%60%19%19%

Results

[edit]
Primary results by county
  Armstrong
  •   50–60%
  •   60–70%
  •   70–80%
  •   80–90%
  Miller
  •   50–60%
Republican primary results[40]
PartyCandidateVotes%
RepublicanKelly Armstrong
Michelle Strinden
67,70473.2%
RepublicanTammy Miller
Josh Teigen
24,78426.8%
Total votes92,488100.0%

Democratic-NPL Primary

[edit]

Candidates

[edit]

Nominee

[edit]

Withdrawn

[edit]
  • Travis Hipsher, security guard[42]

Endorsements

[edit]
Merrill Piepkorn

Organizations

Results

[edit]
Democratic–NPL primary results
PartyCandidateVotes%
Democratic–NPLMerrill Piepkorn
Patrick Hart
19,609100.0%
Total votes19,609100.0%

Independent

[edit]

Candidates

[edit]

Declared

[edit]
  • Michael Coachman, formerLarimore city councilor and perennial candidate[44]
    • Running mate: Lydia Gessele, stay-at-home mom[45]

General election

[edit]

Predictions

[edit]
SourceRankingAs of
The Cook Political Report[46]Solid RJune 13, 2024
Inside Elections[47]Solid RJuly 14, 2023
Sabato's Crystal Ball[48]Safe RJune 4, 2024
RCP[49]Solid RJuly 13, 2024
Elections Daily[50]Safe RJuly 12, 2023
CNalysis[51]Solid RAugust 17, 2024

Post-primary endorsements

[edit]
Kelly Armstrong (R)

Statewide officials

Debates

[edit]
2024 North Dakota Gubernatorial debate
No.DateHostModeratorLinkDemocratic-NPLRepublicanIndependent
Key:
 P Participant  A Absent  N Not invited  I Invited W  Withdrawn
Merrill PiepkornKelly ArmstrongMichael Coachman
1September 6, 2024Forum CommunicationsRob PortPodcastsPPN
2October 8, 2024KFGO NewsPaul Jurgens, Amy Dalrymple,
and Jim Shaw
OmnyPPN
3October 10, 2024Prairie Public BroadcastingDave ThompsonC-SPANPPP
4October 14, 2024BEK TVJoel Heitkamp andSteve BakkenC-SPANPPP

Polling

[edit]
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size[a]
Margin
of error
Kelly
Armstrong (R)
Merrill
Piepkorn (D)
Michael
Coachman (I)
Undecided
WPA Intelligence[53][A]September 28–30, 2024500 (LV)± 4.4%54%24%3%19%
Public Opinion Strategies[54][D]June 15–19, 2024500 (LV)± 4.38%61%22%11%6%

Results

[edit]
Margin swing by county
Legend
  •   Democratic — +5−7.5%
  •   Democratic — +2.5−5%
  •   Democratic — +0−2.5%
  •   Republican — +0−2.5%
  •   Republican — +2.5−5%
  •   Republican — +5−7.5%
  •   Republican — +7.5−10%
  •   Republican — +10−12.5%
  •   Republican — +12.5−15%
  •   Republican — >15%
2024 North Dakota gubernatorial election[55]
PartyCandidateVotes%±%
RepublicanKelly Armstrong
Michelle Strinden
247,05668.26%+2.42%
Democratic–NPLMerrill Piepkorn
Patrick Hart
94,04325.98%+0.60%
IndependentMichael Coachman
Lydia Gessele
20,3225.61%N/A
Write-in5300.15%-4.75%
Total votes361,951100.00%N/A
Republicanhold

Notes

[edit]
  1. ^abKey:
    A – all adults
    RV – registered voters
    LV – likely voters
    V – unclear

Partisan clients

  1. ^abThis poll was sponsored by the North Dakota News Cooperative
  2. ^This poll was sponsored by North Dakota United, a union for teachers and public sector workers
  3. ^This poll was sponsored by Armstrong's campaign
  4. ^Poll sponsored by Brighter Future Alliance

References

[edit]
  1. ^MacPherson, James (November 8, 2022)."North Dakota voters OK term limits for governor, legislators".Associated Press News. RetrievedNovember 20, 2022.
  2. ^abDura, Jack (January 22, 2024)."His presidential bid over, North Dakota Gov. Doug Burgum says he won't seek a third term as governor".The Associated Press. RetrievedJanuary 22, 2024.
  3. ^Thaden, Geoff (January 4, 2024)."Tom Campbell Poised to Enter Governor's Race Regardless of Doug Burgum's Decision on Reelection".WDAY (AM). RetrievedJanuary 26, 2024.
  4. ^Port, Rob (December 15, 2023)."Port: Former state Sen. Tom Campbell sounds like he's ready to be governor".The Forum of Fargo-Moorhead.Archived from the original on December 15, 2023. RetrievedJanuary 26, 2024.
  5. ^abLarson, Chris (January 21, 2024)."Former State Senator Tom Campbell to run for Governor".WDAY. RetrievedJanuary 22, 2024.
  6. ^"Kelly Armstrong, North Dakota's lone congressman, runs for governor". January 23, 2024.
  7. ^"Armstrong announces run for ND governor". January 23, 2024.
  8. ^Nazzaro, Miranda (January 23, 2024)."North Dakota lawmaker running for governor".The Hill.
  9. ^"North Dakota governor candidates emerge as Burgum bows out". January 22, 2024.
  10. ^"Tom Campbell announces bid for North Dakota's US House seat". January 26, 2024.
  11. ^"Democrat Travis Hipsher discusses run for ND governor". February 2024.
  12. ^"ND dem NPL Gubernatorial candidate Hipsher: This is "opportunity to push my ideas"". February 2, 2024.
  13. ^"Independent candidate Michael Coachman discusses bid for ND governor".KFYR-TV. February 11, 2024.
  14. ^"Former candidate who tried to recall Gov. Burgum runs again for North Dakota governor".Associated Press. February 6, 2024.
  15. ^"Lt. Governor Tammy Miller announces run for ND governor".KFYR-TV. February 15, 2024.
  16. ^Skurzewski, Joe (March 23, 2024)."Fargo Democrat Piepkorn files paperwork for gubernatorial bid; does not officially confirm campaign". RetrievedApril 9, 2024.
  17. ^Gick, Justin (March 31, 2024)."Democrat Travis Hipsher withdraws from the North Dakota gubernatorial race".KFYR-TV. RetrievedApril 9, 2024.
  18. ^Gick, Justin (April 2, 2024)."Democrat Merrill Piepkorn enters North Dakota's governor's race".KFYR-TV. RetrievedApril 9, 2024.
  19. ^"Armstrong announces run for ND Governor".KFYR-TV. January 23, 2024. RetrievedJanuary 23, 2024.
  20. ^abJanke, Ryan."N.D. Republican, Democratic parties endorse candidates for governor". KFGO. RetrievedApril 9, 2024.
  21. ^Monk, Jim (February 15, 2024)."Lt. Governor Tammy Miller joins race for North Dakota governor".KVRR.
  22. ^Jurgens, Paul."Lt. Gov. Tammy Miller choses [sic] Josh Teigen as running mate". KFGO. RetrievedApril 9, 2024.
  23. ^Carvell, Tasha (January 26, 2023)."Tom Campbell says he'll seek N.D. GOP nomination for U.S. House".KFGO. RetrievedJanuary 26, 2023.
  24. ^abcdPort, Rob (January 22, 2024)."Which North Dakota Republicans are running for governor and U.S. House?".The Forum of Fargo-Moorhead. RetrievedJanuary 23, 2024.
  25. ^abGick, Justin (February 21, 2024)."Burgum endorses Tammy Miller for ND governor".KFYR-TV. RetrievedFebruary 21, 2024.
  26. ^abGick, Justin (April 3, 2024)."Cramer endorses Armstrong for governor".KFYR-TV. RetrievedApril 3, 2024.
  27. ^Adragna, Anthony (January 23, 2024)."Kevin Cramer won't run for North Dakota governor".Politico. RetrievedJanuary 23, 2024.
  28. ^Larson, Chris (January 29, 2024)."Fedorchak will not run for Governor in 2024".WDAY. RetrievedJanuary 30, 2024.
  29. ^Fulton, Jacob (February 15, 2024)."North Dakota Public Service Commissioner Julie Fedorchak to run for US House".The Bismarck Tribune. RetrievedFebruary 15, 2024.
  30. ^Springer, Patrick (January 22, 2024)."Doug Burgum will not seek 3rd term; Lt. Gov. Miller expresses interest as AG Wrigley declines".The Forum of Fargo-Moorhead.
  31. ^Port, Rob (May 30, 2024)."Port: Trump endorses Armstrong, Fedorchak in North Dakota's Republican primaries".Jamestown Sun. RetrievedMay 30, 2024.
  32. ^Gick, Justin (April 2, 2024)."Hoeven endorses Armstrong for governor".KFYR-TV. RetrievedApril 2, 2024.
  33. ^"Kelly Armstrong, Michelle Strinden endorsed for Gov., Lt. Gov". April 6, 2024.
  34. ^"North Dakota Republican candidates headed into first debate for governor's race".InForum. April 22, 2024. RetrievedMay 6, 2024.
  35. ^"FMWF Chamber announces live Gubernatorial debate between Kelly Armstrong and Tammy Miller".WDAY Radio. May 3, 2024. RetrievedMay 6, 2024.
  36. ^Downs, Michael (June 7, 2024)."North Dakota Gubernatorial Republican Primary Debate | 6-7-24".WDAY. RetrievedJune 8, 2024.
  37. ^WPA Intelligence
  38. ^DFM Research (D)
  39. ^Guidant Polling and Strategy
  40. ^"2024 North Dakota Election Results".Associated Press News.
  41. ^Hjelmstad, Gretchen (April 2, 2024)."Merrill Piepkorn launches campaign for Governor of North Dakota".KVLY-TV. RetrievedApril 2, 2024.
  42. ^Gick, Justin (March 31, 2024)."Democrat Travis Hipsher withdraws from the North Dakota gubernatorial race".KFYR-TV. RetrievedMarch 31, 2024.
  43. ^"North Dakota Democrats endorse Merrill Piepkorn, Patrick Hart as Governor, Lieutenant Governor candidates".
  44. ^"Former candidate who tried to recall Gov. Burgum runs again for North Dakota governor".KFYR-TV. February 7, 2024.
  45. ^"Trump rally scheduled June 15 at North Dakota Capitol, but former president not expected". May 23, 2024.
  46. ^"2024 Governor Race ratings".The Cook Political Report. RetrievedJuly 24, 2023.
  47. ^"Gubernatorial Ratings".Inside Elections. RetrievedJuly 24, 2023.
  48. ^"2024 Gubernatorial race ratings".Sabato's Crystal Ball. RetrievedJuly 24, 2023.
  49. ^"2024 Governor Races".www.realclearpolling.com. RetrievedJuly 16, 2024.
  50. ^"Election Ratings".Elections Daily. July 22, 2023. RetrievedJuly 24, 2023.
  51. ^"Governor Forecasts".CNalysis. RetrievedAugust 17, 2024.
  52. ^"Tammy Miller congratulates Kelly Armstrong on winning GOP Governor nomination".KX NEWS. June 12, 2024. RetrievedJune 12, 2024.
  53. ^WPA Intelligence
  54. ^Public Opinion Strategies
  55. ^"North Dakota Secretary of State".

External links

[edit]

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