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| Turnout | 76.57% 4.76[1] | |||||||||||||||||||
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 County results Congressional district results Precinct resultsGianforte: 40–50% 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% 80–90% >90% Busse: 40–50% 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% 80–90% No votes | ||||||||||||||||||||
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| Elections in Montana | ||||||||
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The2024 Montana gubernatorial election was held on November 5, 2024, to elect thegovernor of the U.S. state ofMontana, concurrently with the2024 U.S. presidential election, as well aselections to theUnited States Senate, elections to theUnited States House of Representatives, and variousstate and local elections. Primary elections took place on June 4, 2024.[2] IncumbentRepublican governorGreg Gianforte won re-election to a second term, defeatingDemocratic nominee Ryan Busse. Gianforte won by a 20% margin, which was larger than his 13% margin in2020.[3]
Though Montana has backed Republicans in every presidential election since1996, the sparsely populatedMountain state maintained a Democratic tendency at the state and U.S. Senate levels well through the 2010s. This was the first gubernatorial election since1996 that a Republican was re-elected governor of Montana. This was also the largest margin of victory in a gubernatorial election sinceBrian Schweitzer's 33-point re-election victory in2008, and the largest for a Republican sinceMark Racicot's aforementioned 58-point landslide re-election in1996.
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republican | Greg Gianforte (incumbent) Kristen Juras (incumbent) | 144,752 | 75.2% | |
| Republican | Tanner Smith Randy Pinocci | 47,747 | 24.8% | |
| Total votes | 192,499 | 100.0% | ||
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Democratic | Ryan Busse Raph Graybill | 69,184 | 70.9% | |
| Democratic | Jim Hunt Jerry Driscoll | 28,354 | 29.1% | |
| Total votes | 97,538 | 100.00% | ||
| Source | Ranking | As of |
|---|---|---|
| The Cook Political Report[16] | Solid R | June 13, 2024 |
| Inside Elections[17] | Solid R | July 14, 2023 |
| Sabato's Crystal Ball[18] | Safe R | June 4, 2024 |
| RCP[19] | Likely R | July 13, 2024 |
| Elections Daily[20] | Safe R | July 12, 2023 |
| CNalysis[21] | Solid R | August 17, 2024 |
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size[a] | Margin of error | Greg Gianforte (R) | Ryan Busse (D) | Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Montana State University[22] | September 30 – October 16, 2024 | 760 (A) | ± 3.56% | 50% | 31% | 5%[b] | 14% |
| The New York Times/Siena College[23] | October 5–8, 2024 | 656 (LV) | ± 4.3% | 57% | 35% | – | 8% |
| 656 (RV) | 57% | 35% | – | 9% | |||
| Public Opinion Strategies (R)[24][A] | September 29 – October 1, 2024 | 500 (LV) | ± 4.34% | 55% | 36% | 1%[c] | 7% |
| Fabrizio Ward (R)/ David Binder Research (D)[25][B] | August 25–29, 2024 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 54% | 38% | – | 8% |
| Public Opinion Strategies (R)[26][A] | August 18–20, 2024 | 500 (LV) | ± 4.38% | 53% | 34% | 4%[d] | 8% |
| Public Opinion Strategies (R)[26][A] | June 11–13, 2024 | 500 (LV) | ± 4.4% | 54% | 33% | 5%[e] | 8% |
| SurveyUSA[27][C] | February 12–15, 2024 | 549 (LV) | ± 4.5% | 52% | 30% | – | 18% |
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | ±% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republican |
| 354,569 | 58.86% | +4.43% | |
| Democratic |
| 232,644 | 38.62% | −2.94% | |
| Libertarian |
| 15,191 | 2.52% | −1.49% | |
| Total votes | 602,404 | 100.00% | N/A | ||
| Turnout | 612,423 | 76.57% | |||
| Registered electors | 799,849 | ||||
| Republicanhold | |||||
| County[28] | Greg Gianforte Republican | Ryan Busse Democratic | Kaiser Leib Libertarian | Margin | Total | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Votes | % | Votes | % | Votes | % | Votes | % | ||
| Beaverhead | 4,139 | 71.72% | 1,511 | 26.18% | 121 | 2.10% | 2,628 | 45.54% | 5,771 |
| Big Horn | 2,206 | 49.56% | 2,118 | 47.58% | 127 | 2.85% | 88 | 1.98% | 4,451 |
| Blaine | 1,555 | 51.42% | 1,387 | 45.87% | 82 | 2.71% | 168 | 5.56% | 3,024 |
| Broadwater | 3,723 | 77.59% | 930 | 19.38% | 145 | 3.02% | 2,793 | 58.21% | 4,798 |
| Carbon | 4,812 | 65.46% | 2,370 | 32.24% | 169 | 2.30% | 2,442 | 33.22% | 7,351 |
| Carter | 774 | 91.60% | 53 | 6.27% | 18 | 2.13% | 721 | 85.33% | 845 |
| Cascade | 23,339 | 62.08% | 13,324 | 35.44% | 932 | 2.48% | 10,015 | 26.64% | 37,595 |
| Chouteau | 1,994 | 68.03% | 888 | 30.30% | 49 | 1.67% | 1,106 | 37.73% | 2,931 |
| Custer | 4,203 | 72.59% | 1,417 | 24.47% | 170 | 2.94% | 2,786 | 48.12% | 5,790 |
| Daniels | 787 | 83.10% | 140 | 14.78% | 20 | 2.11% | 647 | 68.32% | 947 |
| Dawson | 3,553 | 77.19% | 926 | 20.12% | 124 | 2.69% | 2,627 | 57.07% | 4,603 |
| Deer Lodge | 2,259 | 46.22% | 2,487 | 50.88% | 142 | 2.91% | -228 | -4.66% | 4,888 |
| Fallon | 1,302 | 87.44% | 158 | 10.61% | 29 | 1.95% | 1,144 | 76.83% | 1,489 |
| Fergus | 4,945 | 73.79% | 1,602 | 23.91% | 154 | 2.30% | 3,343 | 49.89% | 6,701 |
| Flathead | 41,539 | 65.88% | 20,064 | 31.82% | 1,451 | 2.30% | 21,475 | 34.06% | 63,054 |
| Gallatin | 32,843 | 47.06% | 35,200 | 50.44% | 1,742 | 2.50% | -2,357 | -3.38% | 69,785 |
| Garfield | 752 | 94.83% | 34 | 4.29% | 7 | 0.88% | 718 | 90.54% | 793 |
| Glacier | 1,955 | 38.37% | 2,986 | 58.61% | 154 | 3.02% | -1,031 | -20.24% | 5,095 |
| Golden Valley | 440 | 84.94% | 67 | 12.93% | 11 | 2.12% | 373 | 72.01% | 518 |
| Granite | 1,507 | 69.58% | 613 | 28.30% | 46 | 2.12% | 894 | 41.27% | 2,166 |
| Hill | 3,910 | 57.65% | 2,666 | 39.31% | 206 | 3.04% | 1,244 | 18.34% | 6,782 |
| Jefferson | 5,507 | 66.17% | 2,605 | 31.30% | 211 | 2.54% | 2,902 | 34.87% | 8,323 |
| Judith Basin | 1,090 | 80.27% | 234 | 17.23% | 34 | 2.50% | 856 | 63.03% | 1,358 |
| Lake | 9,937 | 58.97% | 6,485 | 38.49% | 428 | 2.54% | 3,452 | 20.49% | 16,850 |
| Lewis and Clark | 21,678 | 51.49% | 19,360 | 45.98% | 1,065 | 2.53% | 2,318 | 5.51% | 42,103 |
| Liberty | 787 | 78.70% | 204 | 20.40% | 9 | 0.90% | 583 | 58.30% | 1,000 |
| Lincoln | 8,820 | 75.05% | 2,634 | 22.41% | 298 | 2.54% | 6,186 | 52.64% | 11,752 |
| Madison | 4,611 | 71.25% | 1,726 | 26.67% | 135 | 2.09% | 2,885 | 44.58% | 6,472 |
| McCone | 922 | 85.13% | 142 | 13.11% | 19 | 1.75% | 780 | 72.02% | 1,083 |
| Meagher | 894 | 76.67% | 245 | 21.01% | 27 | 2.32% | 649 | 55.66% | 1,166 |
| Mineral | 2,026 | 71.97% | 708 | 25.15% | 81 | 2.88% | 1,318 | 46.82% | 2,815 |
| Missoula | 27,670 | 38.00% | 43,378 | 59.58% | 1,762 | 2.42% | -15,708 | -21.57% | 72,810 |
| Musselshell | 2,555 | 85.20% | 369 | 12.30% | 75 | 2.50% | 2,186 | 72.89% | 2,999 |
| Park | 5,947 | 50.72% | 5,442 | 46.41% | 336 | 2.87% | 505 | 4.31% | 11,725 |
| Petroleum | 287 | 86.97% | 35 | 10.61% | 8 | 2.42% | 252 | 76.36% | 330 |
| Phillips | 1,786 | 81.48% | 368 | 16.79% | 38 | 1.73% | 1,418 | 64.69% | 2,192 |
| Pondera | 2,054 | 72.07% | 743 | 26.07% | 53 | 1.86% | 1,311 | 46.00% | 2,850 |
| Powder River | 960 | 87.59% | 123 | 11.22% | 13 | 1.19% | 837 | 76.37% | 1,096 |
| Powell | 2,413 | 73.75% | 735 | 22.46% | 124 | 3.79% | 1,678 | 51.28% | 3,272 |
| Prairie | 540 | 78.49% | 125 | 18.17% | 23 | 3.34% | 415 | 60.32% | 688 |
| Ravalli | 20,740 | 69.60% | 8,387 | 28.14% | 673 | 2.26% | 12,353 | 41.45% | 29,800 |
| Richland | 4,324 | 82.72% | 748 | 14.31% | 155 | 2.97% | 3,576 | 68.41% | 5,227 |
| Roosevelt | 2,122 | 54.62% | 1,656 | 42.63% | 107 | 2.75% | 466 | 11.99% | 3,885 |
| Rosebud | 2,469 | 66.86% | 1,129 | 30.57% | 95 | 2.57% | 1,340 | 36.28% | 3,693 |
| Sanders | 6,088 | 75.68% | 1,714 | 21.31% | 242 | 3.01% | 4,374 | 54.38% | 8,044 |
| Sheridan | 1,365 | 72.30% | 466 | 24.68% | 57 | 3.02% | 899 | 47.62% | 1,888 |
| Silver Bow | 7,790 | 42.74% | 9,866 | 54.13% | 569 | 3.12% | -2,076 | -11.39% | 18,225 |
| Stillwater | 4,709 | 79.58% | 1,076 | 18.18% | 132 | 2.23% | 3,633 | 61.40% | 5,917 |
| Sweet Grass | 1,805 | 75.78% | 510 | 21.41% | 67 | 2.81% | 1,295 | 54.37% | 2,382 |
| Teton | 2,612 | 73.00% | 891 | 24.90% | 75 | 2.10% | 1,721 | 48.10% | 3,578 |
| Toole | 1,632 | 80.08% | 355 | 17.42% | 51 | 2.50% | 1,277 | 62.66% | 2,038 |
| Treasure | 384 | 85.91% | 47 | 10.51% | 16 | 3.58% | 337 | 75.39% | 447 |
| Valley | 3,009 | 73.80% | 961 | 23.57% | 107 | 2.62% | 2,048 | 50.23% | 4,077 |
| Wheatland | 854 | 79.22% | 203 | 18.83% | 21 | 1.95% | 651 | 60.39% | 1,078 |
| Wibaux | 454 | 83.61% | 77 | 14.18% | 12 | 2.21% | 377 | 69.43% | 543 |
| Yellowstone | 51,191 | 62.95% | 27,956 | 34.38% | 2,174 | 2.67% | 23,235 | 28.57% | 81,321 |
| Totals | 354,569 | 58.86% | 232,644 | 38.62% | 15,191 | 2.52% | 121,925 | 20.24% | 602,404 |
Swing by county
Trend relative to the state by county
County flipsDemocratic Hold | Republican Hold Gain from Democratic
|
Gianforte won both congressional districts.[29]
| District | Gianforte | Busse | Representative |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1st | 54% | 43% | Ryan Zinke |
| 2nd | 64% | 33% | Matt Rosendale (118th Congress) |
| Troy Downing (119th Congress) |
Partisan clients
Shawn White Wolf, who has run for a number of different positions in the Helena area in recent years, filed to run for governor in 2023 but has since withdrawn his candidacy.
Official campaign websites
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