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2024 Michigan Republican presidential nominating contests

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(Redirected from2024 Michigan Republican presidential primary)

2024 Michigan Republican presidential primary and caucus

2024 Michigan Republican presidential primary
← 2020February 27, 20242028 →
← SC
ID →

16Republican National Convention delegates
 
CandidateDonald TrumpNikki Haley
Home stateFloridaSouth Carolina
Delegate count124
Popular vote761,163297,124
Percentage68.12%26.59%

County results
Congressional district results

Trump

  50 – 60%
  60 – 70%
  70 – 80%
  80 – 90%

2024 Michigan Republican presidential caucuses
← 2016March 2, 20242028 →
← ID
MO →

39Republican National Convention delegates
 
CandidateDonald TrumpNikki Haley
Home stateFloridaSouth Carolina
Delegate count390
Popular vote1,57536
Percentage97.77%2.23%
Elections in Michigan
U.S. President
Presidential Primaries
U.S. Senate
U.S. House
Other localities

The2024 Michigan Republican presidential primary and caucuses were held on February 27 and on March 2, 2024, respectively, as part of theRepublican Party primaries for the2024 presidential election. 55 delegates to the2024 Republican National Convention were allocated on a proportional and winner-take-most basis.[1] The primary took place concurrently with itsDemocratic counterpart, and sawDonald Trump defeatNikki Haley in a 42-point landslide.[2]

Background

[edit]

In the2016 Michigan Republican presidential primary,Donald Trump won with 36.5% of the vote, carrying 25 out of 59 delegates total. His closest opponents, Governor of OhioJohn Kasich and Senator from TexasTed Cruz, received 24.9% and 24.3% of the vote, respectively, with both candidates receiving 17 delegates.[3]

Michigan GOP 2024 schism

[edit]
See also:Michigan Republican Party

A court case was heard in Grand Rapids byKent County Judge J. Joseph Rossi in late February determined who controls the state party. Judge Rossi dismissed a lawsuit by Karamo on February 20 to dismiss the case allowing for full hearings on the lawsuit filed by Karamo's critics later in the week regarding whether the RNC recognized chair Hoekstra or Karamo controls the MIGOP.[4] Judge Rossi on February 27 issued a preliminary injunction against Karamo, stating was properly removed as MIGOP chair and barring access by her to MIGOP bank accounts or post office boxes. Karamo declined to say whether she would appeal the ruling and had no comment as to whether the Detroit caucuses will take place.[5][6] A full trial regarding control of the MIGOP is scheduled to take place on June 10.[7] The Michigan Court of Appeals denied a request on February 29 by Karamo to issue a stay on the court order putting her Detroit caucus in doubt.[8] The chaos affected northern Michigan GOP participants fromMichigan's 1st congressional district who had planned to go to Detroit but were barred by missing the deadline to take part in the Grand Rapids caucus. So a third gathering is planned the same day inHoughton Lake.[9] A contingent fromMichigan's 4th congressional district was also denied credentials for the Grand Rapids caucuses, so a fourth gathering was announced for the same day inBattle Creek.[10] The Detroit gathering was cancelled.[11] Judge Rossi ruled that Karamo was properly removed as MIGOP chair.[12]

Procedure

[edit]

16 at-large delegates are allocated based on the results of the February 27 primary to candidates who receive at least 12.5% of the statewide vote.

39 district delegates are allocated based on the results of caucuses in each of the state's 13 congressional districts on March 2. Each of the state's thirteencongressional districts are awarded three delegates. The candidate who wins the majority of the vote in a caucus is awarded all that district's delegates; otherwise, the candidate with the highest vote total is awarded two delegates and the candidate with the second-highest vote total is awarded one delegate.

Schedule

[edit]

In February 2023, GovernorGretchen Whitmer signed legislation to move up the date of both the Democratic and Republican presidential primaries in Michigan to February 27, 2024, in line with theDemocratic National Committee's (DNC) state reorganization plan.[13]

The date violated Republican Party Rule 16(c)(1), which prohibits any state/territory except Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada, and South Carolina, from holding their primary/caucus until March 1, 2024, violating any other state/territory by stripping 80% of its delegates at theRepublican National Convention.

In response, in June 2023, theMichigan Republican Party (MIGOP) passed a resolution of intent that would allocate 16 delegates based on the results of the February 27 primary and 39 delegates based on the results of caucuses in each of the state's 13 congressional districts on March 2.[14]

The convention held by the faction of the Michigan Republican Party recognized by theRepublican National Committee led byPete Hoekstra will be inGrand Rapids at theAmway Grand Plaza Hotel on March 2,[15] while the faction of the Michigan Republican Party led byKristina Karamo will hold their convention inDetroit atHuntington Place on the same day.[16] While media is invited to the Karamo caucus, it will be closed to the public.[17] The RNC has indicated that only the delegates from the Hoekstra-led convention will be seated for the2024 Republican National Convention.[18] A court ruling by Judge Joseph Rossi on February 27 indicated that Karamo was properly removed as MIGOP chair[19] and barred Karamo from conducting business on behalf of the "Michigan Republican State Committee or the Michigan Republican Party".[20] Rossi made his ruling retroactive to January 6.[21] A full trial regarding control of the MIGOP is scheduled to take place on June 10.[22] The Michigan Court of Appeals denied a request on February 29 by Karamo to issue a stay on the court order while her appeal is under consideration, putting her Detroit caucus in doubt.[23] The chaos affected delegates fromMichigan's 1st congressional district who had planned to go to Detroit but were barred credentials to take part in the Grand Rapids convention; a third gathering is planned the same day inHoughton Lake.[24] A contingent fromMichigan's 4th congressional district was also denied credentials for the Grand Rapids caucuses, so a fourth gathering was announced for the same day inBattle Creek.[25] The Detroit gathering was cancelled.[26]

Primary candidates

[edit]

The Michigan Secretary of State has identified the following candidates, listed alphabetically, as potential Republican Party presidential candidates in 2024:[27]

Endorsements

[edit]
Main article:Endorsements in the 2024 Republican Party presidential primaries
Ron DeSantis (withdrawn)

State senators

State representatives

Nikki Haley

State senator

State representatives

Newspapers

Perry Johnson (withdrawn)

Former federal official

Donald Trump

U.S. Representatives

State senator

State representatives

Former party official

Former local official

Individuals

Maps

[edit]
Endorsements by incumbent Republicans in theMichigan House of Representatives.
  Endorsed Donald Trump (40)
  Endorsed Nikki Haley (1)
  No endorsement (13)


Polling

[edit]
Source of poll
aggregation
Dates
administered
Dates
updated
Nikki
Haley
Donald
Trump
Other/
Undecided[a]
Margin
FiveThirtyEight[45]through February 24, 2024February 27, 202421.8%78.7%-Trump +56.9
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size[b]
Margin
of error
Doug
Burgum
Chris
Christie
Ron
DeSantis
Nikki
Haley
Will
Hurd
Asa
Hutchinson
Perry
Johnson
Mike
Pence
Vivek
Ramaswamy
Tim
Scott
Donald
Trump
OtherUndecided
Emerson College/The Hill[46]Feb 20–24, 2024486 (LV)±3%20.3%69.2%10.5%
Michigan Information and Research Service (MIRS)[47]Jan 4–10, 2024600 (LV)±4%3%8%9%19%2%53%6%
CNN/SSRS[48]Nov 30 – December 7, 2023618 (LV)± 3.4%1%6%15%13%1%4%58%1%3%
Morning Consult[49]Nov 1–30, 20231,348 (LV)0%3%13%10%0%8%1%65%
Morning Consult[49]Oct 1–31, 20231,342 (LV)1%3%10%6%0%0%7%9%1%63%
Public Policy Polling (D)[50]Oct 9–10, 2023430 (LV)± 4.7%2%3%13%6%0%2%3%0%63%8%
Morning Consult[49]Sep 1–30, 20231,238 (LV)0%4%12%6%0%0%7%10%1%58%2%
Susquehanna University[51]Sep 7–12, 2023219 (LV)0%0%18%3%0%5%5%0%65%
Morning Consult[49]Aug 1–31, 20231,299 (LV)0%4%15%3%0%1%8%8%2%59%0%[c]
Emerson College[52]Aug 1–2, 2023498 (RV)± 4.3%1%2%13%3%0%1%0%7%4%2%61%1%6%
Morning Consult[49]July 1–31, 20231,350 (LV)3%18%3%0%1%10%7%2%55%1%
Mitchell Research[53][A]Jul 11–13, 2023639 (LV)± 4.0%13%1%0%3%2%69%11%
Morning Consult[49]June 1–30, 20231,242 (LV)1%2%25%3%0%2%9%3%3%52%1%[d]
Morning Consult[49]May 1–31, 20231,354 (LV)25%2%1%9%5%1%53%5%[e]1%
Morning Consult[49]Apr 1–30, 20231,356 (LV)26%3%0%10%2%1%53%5%[f]
Morning Consult[49]Mar 1–31, 20231,378 (LV)30%3%10%0%1%51%5%[g]
Morning Consult[49]Feb 1–28, 20231,232 (LV)32%4%10%0%1%46%6%[h]1%
Echelon Insights[54]Feb 13–16, 2023400 (V)± 6.0%47%42%11%
Morning Consult[49]Jan 1–31, 20231,709 (LV)33%1%10%0%48%5%[i]3%
Morning Consult[49]Dec 1–31, 2022909 (LV)32%1%10%0%50%7%[j]
Glengariff Group[55]Jul 13–15, 2022500 (LV)± 4.4%42%45%13%

Results

[edit]

Primary

[edit]
Michigan Republican primary, February 27, 2024[56][57]
CandidateVotesPercentageActual delegate count
BoundUnboundTotal
Donald Trump761,16368.12%12012
Nikki Haley297,12426.59%404
Uncommitted33,6493.01%000
Ron DeSantis (withdrawn)13,4561.20%000
Chris Christie (withdrawn)4,7940.43%000
Vivek Ramaswamy (withdrawn)3,7020.33%000
Ryan Binkley2,3480.21%000
Asa Hutchinson (withdrawn)1,0770.10%000
Total:1,117,313100.00%16016

Caucus

[edit]

CBS called the results for Donald Trump at 6:02PM (EST) with Trump winning all 39 delegates available from the caucus.[58]

Michigan Republican caucus, March 2, 2024[59]
CandidateVotesPercentageActual delegate count
BoundUnboundTotal
Donald Trump1,57597.77%39039
Nikki Haley362.23%000
Total:1,611100.00%39039
Source:[60]

See also

[edit]

Notes

[edit]
  1. ^Calculated by taking the difference of 100% and all other candidates combined.
  2. ^Key:
    A – all adults
    RV – registered voters
    LV – likely voters
    V – unclear
  3. ^Francis Suarez with 0%
  4. ^Liz Cheney with 1%; Greg Abbott and Kristi Noem with 0%
  5. ^Liz Cheney with 3%; Glenn Youngkin, Greg Abbott, and Kristi Noem with 0%
  6. ^Liz Cheney with 3%; Mike Pompeo and Glenn Youngkin with 1%; Greg Abbott and Kristi Noem with 0%
  7. ^Liz Cheney with 3%; Greg Abbott and Mike Pompeo with 1%; Kristi Noem and Glenn Youngkin with 0%
  8. ^Liz Cheney with 3%; Greg Abbott, Kristi Noem, and Mike Pompeo with 1%; Ted Cruz and Glenn Youngkin with 0%
  9. ^Liz Cheney with 3%; Mike Pompeo and Ted Cruz with 1%; Kristi Noem, Greg Abbott, and Glenn Youngkin with 0%
  10. ^Ted Cruz with 3%; Liz Cheney with 2%; Mike Pompeo and Kristi Noem with 1%; Greg Abbott and Glenn Youngkin with 0%

Partisan clients

  1. ^Poll commissioned by MIRS

References

[edit]
  1. ^"Michigan Republican Presidential Nominating Process".The Green Papers. March 5, 2023. RetrievedFebruary 6, 2023.
  2. ^"Michigan Primary Election Results 2024".The New York Times. February 29, 2024.ISSN 0362-4331. RetrievedFebruary 29, 2024.
  3. ^"Michigan Primary Election Results 2016".The New York Times. September 29, 2016.ISSN 0362-4331. RetrievedMarch 3, 2023.
  4. ^"In Michigan GOP court fight, Kristina Karamo loses first round | Bridge Michigan". February 23, 2024.
  5. ^"Judge finds Kristina Karamo was removed as Michigan GOP chairwoman".
  6. ^"Judge bars Kristina Karamo from calling herself Michigan Republican Party chair".Detroit Free Press. RetrievedMarch 6, 2024.
  7. ^"Judge rules Kristina Karamo was properly ousted as Michigan GOP chair".mlive. February 27, 2024. RetrievedMarch 6, 2024.
  8. ^"Appeals Court denies Karamo request to suspend order removing her as Michigan GOP chair".Detroit Free Press. RetrievedMarch 6, 2024.
  9. ^"District 1 Republicans to hold separate GOP Convention after credentials were denied for Grand Rapids". March 1, 2024. RetrievedMarch 6, 2024.
  10. ^LeBlanc, Beth (March 1, 2024)."Another competing Michigan GOP convention planned for Saturday".The Detroit News. RetrievedMarch 1, 2024.
  11. ^"Trump wins big at Michigan GOP district caucuses held at Grand Rapids convention".Detroit Free Press. RetrievedMarch 6, 2024.
  12. ^https://www.bridgemi.com/michigan-government/2024-michigan-elections-kristina-karamo-loses-fight-state-gop-again
  13. ^Robinson, Samuel (February 3, 2023)."Michigan Democrats move up presidential primary without GOP support".Axios. RetrievedMarch 3, 2023.
  14. ^Egan, Paul (June 12, 2023)."New presidential delegate system sparks dispute among Michigan Republicans".Detroit Free Press. RetrievedDecember 27, 2023.
  15. ^Egan, Paul (February 21, 2024)."Sparring GOP factions now plan 2 conventions at opposite ends of state".Detroit Free Press. RetrievedFebruary 23, 2024.
  16. ^Spangler, Todd; Egan, Paul (February 19, 2024)."Michigan Republicans to hold presidential nominating convention at Huntington Place".Detroit Free Press. RetrievedFebruary 23, 2024.
  17. ^Schuster, Simon (January 18, 2024)."Michigan Republicans plan March 2 presidential caucus in Detroit".mlive.
  18. ^King, Jon (February 23, 2024)."Court ruling on MIGOP chair dispute expected next week".Michigan Advance.
  19. ^Mauger, Craig (February 27, 2024)."Judge finds Kristina Karamo was removed as Michigan GOP chairwoman".The Detroit News. RetrievedFebruary 28, 2024.
  20. ^Mueller, Julia (February 27, 2024)."Judge affirms removal of Karamo as Michigan GOP chair".The Hill. RetrievedFebruary 28, 2024.
  21. ^Egan, Paul (February 28, 2024)."Judge bars Kristina Karamo from calling herself Michigan Republican Party chair".Detroit Free Press. RetrievedFebruary 28, 2024.
  22. ^Hicks, Justin; Schuster, Simon (February 27, 2024)."Judge rules Kristina Karamo was properly ousted as Michigan GOP chair".MLive Media Group. RetrievedFebruary 28, 2024.
  23. ^Egan, Paul (February 29, 2024)."Appeals Court denies Karamo request to suspend order removing her as Michigan GOP chair".Detroit Free Press. RetrievedFebruary 29, 2024.
  24. ^"District 1 Republicans to hold separate GOP Convention after credentials were denied for Grand Rapids".WLUC-TV. March 1, 2024. RetrievedMarch 1, 2024.
  25. ^LeBlanc, Beth; Mauger, Craig (March 1, 2024)."Detroit convention canceled as Michigan GOP beset with 'chaos and confusion'".The Detroit News. RetrievedMarch 1, 2024.
  26. ^Egan, Paul; Hendrickson, Clara (March 2, 2024)."Trump wins big at Michigan GOP district caucuses held at Grand Rapids convention".Detroit Free Press. RetrievedMarch 2, 2024.
  27. ^"2024 Michigan Official Presidential Primary Candidate Listing - 02/27/2024".mielections.us.
  28. ^"Which 2024 Republican Presidential Candidate Has The Most Endorsements?".FiveThirtyEight. April 24, 2023. Archived fromthe original on April 19, 2023. RetrievedApril 25, 2023.
  29. ^abcdeOosting, Jonathan [@jonathanoosting] (April 6, 2023)."Ron DeSantis secures some Michigan endorsements for president, according to supporting super PAC: State Senate Minority Leader Aric Nesbitt, Sens. Lana Theis, Michael Webber, Kevin Daley, Dan Lauwers and Joe Bellino, state Rep. Bryan Posthumus, former House Speaker Tom Leonard" (Tweet). RetrievedApril 10, 2023 – viaTwitter.
  30. ^abcdefghijklmnopq"DeSantis is the Future - Never Back Down".neverbackdown.org. April 27, 2023.
  31. ^abIsenstadt, Alex (January 18, 2023)."Top Michigan Republicans move to draft DeSantis for 2024".Politico. RetrievedMarch 3, 2023.
  32. ^LeBlanc, Beth (April 6, 2023)."DeSantis lays out Florida as blueprint for Republican success in Michigan speech".The Detroit News. RetrievedApril 6, 2023.
  33. ^abcd"Haley Campaign Press Release - Nikki Haley Unveils Michigan State Leadership Team | The American Presidency Project".www.presidency.ucsb.edu.
  34. ^"Our endorsement for the Michigan Democratic primary".The Detroit News. RetrievedFebruary 10, 2024.
  35. ^Gomez, Henry J. (March 2, 2023)."Michigan Businessman uses CPAC to launch Presidential Bid'".NBC News. RetrievedMarch 2, 2023.
  36. ^https://facebook.com/profile/100004403986580/search/?q=Trump%20has%20my%20vote!%20Publicity%20worth%20millions[dead link]
  37. ^abcdeSingman, Brooke (July 11, 2023)."Trump wins 'clean sweep' of endorsements from Michigan's GOP congressional delegation".Fox News. RetrievedJuly 11, 2023.
  38. ^Mauger, Craig (June 25, 2023)."Trump says push for electric vehicles will mean 'decimation' for Michigan's industry".The Detroit News. RetrievedJune 25, 2023.
  39. ^Finley, Nolan (January 8, 2024)."Finley: Mike Rogers to endorse Trump".The Detroit News. RetrievedJanuary 8, 2024.
  40. ^Oosting, Jonathan (September 23, 2023)."On Mackinac, Vivek Ramswamy steals Michigan GOP spotlight".Bridge Michigan. RetrievedSeptember 23, 2023.
  41. ^abcMauger, Craig; Leblanc, Beth (June 23, 2023)."As Donald Trump prepares for return to Michigan, cracks appear in his GOP support".The Detroit News. RetrievedJune 23, 2023.
  42. ^Mauger, Craig; Nann Burke, Melissa (November 16, 2022)."Muted Michigan GOP reaction to Trump's 3rd White House bid".The Detroit News. RetrievedMarch 18, 2023.(subscription required)
  43. ^Lengel, Allan (September 1, 2023)."Ex-Detroit Police Chief James Craig Wants Trump For President In 2024".Deadline Detroit. RetrievedSeptember 2, 2023.
  44. ^Timotija, Filip (October 23, 2023)."Former GOP presidential candidate Perry Johnson endorses Trump".The Hill. RetrievedJanuary 24, 2024.
  45. ^FiveThirtyEight
  46. ^Emerson College/The Hill
  47. ^Michigan Information and Research Service (MIRS)
  48. ^CNN/SSRS
  49. ^abcdefghijklMorning Consult
  50. ^Public Policy Polling (D)
  51. ^Susquehanna University
  52. ^Emerson College
  53. ^Mitchell Research
  54. ^Echelon Insights
  55. ^Glengariff Group
  56. ^"Secretary Benson releases 2024 presidential primary candidate list".Michigan Secretary of State. RetrievedDecember 8, 2023.[failed verification]
  57. ^"2024 Michigan Election Results". Michigan Secretary of State. February 27, 2024. RetrievedMarch 2, 2024.
  58. ^"Donald Trump wins Missouri and Michigan caucuses. Republicans in Idaho will also weigh in on 2024 race".CBS. March 2, 2024. RetrievedMarch 2, 2024.
  59. ^"Maryland Presidential Primary Election Results 2024". NBC News. RetrievedMay 14, 2024.
  60. ^"Michigan Presidential Caucus Election Result". NBC News. March 2, 2024. RetrievedMarch 2, 2024.
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