When our children and grandchildren look back at the history of human-made climate change, this year [2023] and next will be seen as the turning point at which the futility of governments in dealing with climate change was finally exposed.
Schematic overview on the central role of the Earth heat inventory and its linkages[4]
6 February: U.N. Secretary-GeneralAntónio Guterres said "I have a special message for fossil fuel producers and their enablers scrambling to expand production and raking in monster profits: If you cannot set a credible course fornet-zero, with 2025 and 2030 targets covering all your operations, you should not be in business."[5]
20 March – The finalsynthesis ofthe IPCC Sixth Assessment Report is published. It summarises the state of knowledge relating toclimate change with assessed levels ofconfidence. Conclusions in the summary for contemporary policy-makers include that the extent to which both current and futuregenerations will beimpacted depends on choices now and in the near-term, with "high confidence" thatpolicies implemented by the end of 2020 are "projected to result in higher globalGHG emissionsin 2030 than emissions implied byNDCs" and wouldfail to meetglobal climate goals.[6]
6 September: U.N. Secretary-GeneralAntónio Guterres said "Our planet has just endured a season of simmering — the hottest summer on record.Climate breakdown has begun."[7]
24 October:BioScience's "2023 state of the climate report" stated that "we must shift our perspective on the climate emergency from being just an isolated environmental issue to a systemic, existential threat".[8]
27 December:Inside Climate News summarized the year: "The push and pull of progress and catastrophe made 2023 one of the most discordant—and consequential—years for the world's climate. ... In 2023, clean energy progress and the horrors of a radically warming climate fought almost to a draw."[9]
"Vital Signs of the Planet" as presented by NASA on 31 December 2023[10]
3 January: theNational Snow and Ice Data Center reported thatAntarctic sea ice extent stood at the lowest in the 45-year satellite record—more than 500,000 square kilometers (193,000 square miles) below the previous record (2018), with four of the five lowest years for the last half of December having occurred since 2016.[11]
26 January: Bloomberg NEF's "Energy Transition Investment Trends" report estimated that, for the first time, energy transition investment matched global fossil fuel investment—$1.1 trillion in 2022, including China with $546 billion, the US with $141 billion, and the EU if treated as a bloc, $180 billion.[12]
Reported 10 May:Drax Electric Insights reported that in the first three months of 2023, Britain's wind turbines generated more electricity (32.4%) than gas-fired power stations (31.7%) for the first time.[15]
18 May: a study published inScience reported that more than 50% of freshwater lakes and reservoirs lost volume from 1992 to 2020.[16]
2023's June–July–August season was the warmest on record globally by a large margin, as El Niño conditions continued to develop.[17]September 2023 was the warmest September on record globally, with an average surface air temperature 0.5 °C above the temperature of the previous warmest September (2020).[18]
31 May: an international study inNature, using modelling and literature assessment, codifies, integrates into and quantifies "safe and justEarth system boundaries" (ESBs) with the context ofEarth system stability and minimization of human harm. They expand upon earlier boundary frameworks by incorporating concepts such as intra- andintergenerational justice, propose that their framework may better enable aquantitative foundation for safeguarding theglobal commons, and report many of the ESBs are already exceeded.[19]
8 August: in coastal Iran, theheat index reached 70 °C (158 °F).[22]
29 August: anInternational Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA) publication stated that ~86% (187 GW) of renewable capacity added in 2022 had lower costs than electricity generated from fossil fuels.[23]
31 August: an article inGeophysical Research Letters reported a March 2022 "unprecedented heatwave" in the Antarctic reaching 39 °C (70 °F) above average—the largest temperature anomaly ever recorded globally—attributed 2 °C of the increase to global warming, and projected possible heatwaves of an additional 5–6 °C (9.0–10.8 °F) warmer by 2100.[24]
29 September: a study published inNature Communications estimated the global costs of extreme weather attributable to climate change in the last twenty years to be US$143 billion per year, 63% of which is due to human loss of life.[25]
19 October: a study published inScientific Reports said that the number of North Atlantic tropical cyclones that intensify from a Category 1 into a major hurricane within 36 hours, has more than doubled from 1971-1990 to 2001-2020.[26]
20 November: the CopernicusEuropean Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts reported that 17 November was the first day that the global average surface temperature exceeded pre-industrial levels by more than 2°C.[27]
29 November: a study published inThe BMJ concluded that about 5.13 million excess deaths per year globally are attributable to ambient air pollution from fossil fuel use.[28]
Fossil CO2 emissions by source of continued CO2 rise
5 December: the annualGlobal Carbon Budget study finds fossil CO2 emissions are still rising when if they stayed the same, the 50% likelihood to limit global warming to 1.5 °C would be exceeded around 2031.[29][30]
8 May 2024 (reported):Ember reported that for the first time, renewable energy generated a 30% of global electricity in 2023.[31]
28 August 2024: a study published in the journalNature concluded that the June-September2023 Canadian wildfires causedcarbon emissions that exceeded annual fossil fuel emissions of all nations except India, China and the US.[32]
10 September 2025: a study published inNature attributed 3,400–7,400 acute deaths in North America and 37,800–90,900 chronic deaths in North America and Europe toPM2.5 (fine particulate matter) exposure from the2023 Canadian wildfires.[33]
The extent (area) of Antarctic sea ice reached a new low in 2023.[34] Chart shows how little sea ice remains in the Antarctic summer, which at one point in February 2023 was only about 60% of its 1981–2010 average.
7 February: a study published inNature Communications concluded that 15 million people globally are exposed to impacts from potentialglacial lake outburst floods (GLOFs), more than half being from India, Pakistan, Peru, and China.[35] Climate change has intensified glacial ice melt and expanded glacial lakes.[35]
13 February: a study published in theProceedings of the National Academy of Sciences reported that increasing abundance of a thermotolerant symbiotic alga hosted by corals has facilitated maintenance of high coral cover after three mass coral bleaching events, suggesting that future reefs might maintain high cover for several decades, albeit with low diversity and provided that other stressors are minimized.[36]
2 March: a study published inScience said that boreal fires, typically accounting for 10% of global fire CO2 emissions, contributed 23% in 2021, by far the highest fraction since 2000.[37] 2021 was an abnormal year because North American and Eurasian boreal forests synchronously experienced their greatest water deficit.[37]
13 March: a study published inNature Water found that total intensity of extreme events (droughts andpluvials (rainfall events)) is strongly correlated with global mean temperature, and concluded that continued warming of the planet will cause more frequent, more severe, longer and/or larger of such extreme events, and that "distortion of the water cycle... will be among the most conspicuous consequences of climate change".[38]
29 March: a study published inNature concluded that under a high-emissions scenario, abyssal warming is set to accelerate over the next 30 years, and that meltwater input around Antarctica drives a contraction ofAntarctic Bottom Water (AABW), opening a pathway that allows warmcircumpolar deep water greater access to the continental shelf and results in warming and aging of theabyssal ocean.[44] The study described the "critical importance of Antarctic meltwater in setting the abyssal ocean overturning, with implications for global ocean biogeochemistry and climate that could last for centuries".[44] On 25 May, observational evidence for problematic fast slowdown of theAntarctic bottom water current is presented inNature Climate Change.[45]
7 April: citing reduced air density caused by global warming, a study published in theBulletin of the American Meteorological Society estimated global warming has enabled more than 500 excess home runs inMajor League Baseball since 2010, and projected hundreds more in this century, explaining that "even the elite billion-dollar sports industry is vulnerable to unexpected impacts" of global warming.[46]
5 June: a study published inCurrent Biology estimated that fungi can fix (remove from the atmosphere) the equivalent of ~36% of global fossil fuelGreenhouse gas emissions.[47]
8 June:NOAA published an "ENSO update" declaring that "El Niño is here", estimating the odds of it becoming a strong event (56%), at least a moderate event (84%), and "fizzling out" (4-7%).[48]
Reporting on the reduced Antarctic sea ice extent in mid 2023, researchers concluded that a "regime shift" may be taking place "in which previously important relationships no longer dominate sea ice variability".[49]The area burned by the2023 Canadian wildfires was more than twice that of any prior year of record.[50]A study published in June 2024 concluded that the frequency and intensity of extreme fire events more than doubled from 2003 to 2023.[51]
11 June:Fluchthorn, a mountain between Switzerland and Austria, experienced a landslide of 3.5 million ft3 (99,000 m3) and a loss of 60 feet (18 m) in height, that has been attributed to melting ofpermafrost.[52]
20 June (reported): thePanama Canal is experiencing its lowest rainfall since inception, lowering water levels and requiring restrictions for some vessels to limit their cargo by about 25% to maintain a safedraft and avoid running aground.[53]
4 July: theWMO formally declared "onset of El Niño conditions", projecting it to be "at least of moderate strength".[54]
11 July: a study ofChicago structures published inCommunications Engineering found that in urban settings, subsurfaceheat islands caused by global warming cause significant deformations and displacements that may be "incompatible with the operational requirements of civil structures".[55]
28 July:Yale Environment 360 reported that, adding to ongoing climate change's dominant warming influence, additional factors contributing to current temperature increases include: (1) 2022 eruption of an underwater volcano nearTonga, vaporizing large amounts of sea water and contributing an estimated 0.03 °C (0.054 °F) of warming, (2) solar radiance increasing towards its ~2025 11-year peak when it may contribute 0.05 °C (0.090 °F) of warming, and (3) the Pacific Ocean entering itsEl Niño phase, projected to contribute 0.14 °C (0.25 °F) of warming.[56]
23 August (reported): thePanama Canal experienced an unprecedented dry season causing a decline in water levels and prompting canal administrators to limit daily vessel passages from 36 to 32, and forcing some ships to carry up to 40% less cargo to avoid hitting the bottom.[57]
13 September: a study published inCommunications Earth & Environment concluded that, while for many years Antarctic sea ice had increased, from recent record lows in Antarctic sea ice coverage "it appears that we may now be seeing the inevitable decline, long projected by climate models", and that a "regime shift" may be taking place "in which previously important relationships no longer dominate sea ice variability".[49]
27 September: studying tropical cyclones from 1981–2017, a study published inNature found that cyclones formed almost two weeks sooner, on average, which authors said was "closely related to the seasonal advance of rapid intensification events".[61] The time advance shifts cyclones from autumn into summer, increasing overlap with the peak rainfall season.[61]
6 December: a study published inNature Geoscience said that marinemethane hydrate—an ice-like substance found in sediment beneath water depths greater than ~450–700 m—can vent into the ocean to such a degree that it should considered for estimating climate change-induced release ofmethane, agreenhouse gas.[62]
17 April – A study inEarth System Science Data expands upon the international Earth heat inventory from 2020, which provides a measure of theEarth energy imbalance (EEI) and allows for quantifying how much and where heat has accumulated in theEarth system with comprehensive data. It suggests that the EEI is the "most fundamental global climate indicator" to gaugeclimate change mitigation efforts.[68][4]
8 May: a study published in theProceedings of the National Academy of Sciences concluded that studies extending the reach of "vertical fingerprinting" to the mid to upperstratosphere provide "incontrovertible evidence of anthropogenic impact on Earth's climate".[69]
3 August (reported): floating, vertical-axis wind turbines with a "twirling" operation generate power regardless of wind direction.[70]
17 October: a study published inNature Communications concluded that, subject to various uncertainties, "a global irreversible solartipping point may have passed where solar energy gradually comes to dominate global electricity markets, without any further climate policies".[71]
The phasedown of fossil fuels is inevitable. The speed at which this happens depends on how quickly we can phase up zero carbon alternatives, while ensuring energy security, accessibility and affordability.
1 January:Extinction Rebellion made a statement that for 2023 it had made "a controversial resolution to temporarily shift away frompublic disruption as a primary tactic", after 2022's traffic blockages and throwing soup on the case ofVincent van Gogh's "Sunflowers" painting.[73]
11 January: theFrench National Assembly adopted the Acceleration of Renewable Energies bill, which includes a requirement to install solar panels on all car parks (parking lots) of over 1,500 square metres (16,100 square feet).[76]
14 February: theEuropean Parliament effectively banned sale of new petrol and diesel cars in the European Union from 2035, and set a 55% cut over 2021 CO2 emission levels for new cars sold from 2030.[81]
19 February: A study inEthics, Policy & Environment reports thatrationing has been neglected as a policy option formitigating climate change, and, partly based on historical data and economic analysis, concludes that suchpersonal carbon allowances (PCAs) could help states reduce emissions rapidly andfairly.[82][83]
March: the UN 2023 Water Conference was held in New York.[84]
21 April: a review study published inOne Earth stated that opinion polls show that most people perceive climate change as occurring now and close by.[85] The study concluded that seeing climate change as more distant does not necessarily result in less climate action, and reducing psychological distancing does not reliably increase climate action.[85]
21 April: the Director General of the United Nations'International Organization for Migration said that there are more people displaced because of climate change than because of conflicts, explaining that climate change and conflict interact as triggers of displacement.[86]
Joint action is essential for planetary and human health
Over 200 health journals call on the United Nations, political leaders, and health professionals to recognise that climate change and biodiversity loss are one indivisible crisis and must be tackled together to preserve health and avoid catastrophe. This overall environmental crisis is now so severe as to be aglobal health emergency.
19 May: a study published inOne Earth estimated that the top 21 fossil fuel companies will owe cumulativeclimate reparations of $5.4 trillion over the period 2025–2050.[89]
12 June: the trial phase ofHeld v. Montana, the first constitutional climate trial in US, began in the U.S. state of Montana.[90] Sixteen young residents filed the suit based on the state's 1972 constitution requiring that the "state and each person shall maintain and improve a clean and healthful environment in Montana for present and future generations".[90] On August 14, 2023, the trial court judge ruled in the youth plaintiffs' favor, though the state indicated it would appeal the decision.[91]
23 June: a global summit on finance and climate ended in Paris without creating a tax ongreenhouse gas emissions from maritime transport, or fulfilling promises to transfer money to poor countries through theInternational Monetary Fund.[92]
11 July: A study suggests inOne Earth thatcarbon taxation approaches or instruments would be more effective andfairer when distinguishing between luxury- and basic goods and services.[93][94] A separate study (17 July) inNature Energy finds that forenergy demand reduction (EDR), "capping energy use of the top quintile ofconsumers" would be effective,more equitable, and increase public acceptance of transformative climate action in Europe.[95][96]
July: at a meeting inChennai, India,G20 climate and environment ministers did not come to agreement on four of 68 points considered, including achieving peak emissions by 2025, converting to clean energy, or taxing carbon.[97]
14 August: the trial court judge inHeld v. Montana ruled in favor of the youth plaintiffs, declaring certain Montana laws violated Montana's state constitution.[98] The judge's 103-page ruling concluded that the "MEPA Limitation violates Youth Plaintiffs' right to a clean and healthful environment and is unconstitutional on its face".[98]
17 August: Scientists publish inPLOS Climate what could be the first study both investigating climate-polluting investments and proposing taxation thereof astransformative revenue forclimate finance, i.a. indicating "40% of total U.S. emissions were associated with income flows to the highest earning 10% of households" in 2019 with agrowing emissions inequality.[99]
18 August: A study inOne Earth investigatingpublic policies and spending as well aslobbying activities regarding a transition to asustainable food system finds that governments "largely ignore the climate-mitigation potential of animal product analogs" and that food production has 'lock-in' problems.[100]
2023 U.N. Climate Change Conference (COP28)
The Conference of the Parties... calls on Parties to contribute to the following global efforts:
(a) Tripling renewable energy capacity globally and doubling the global average annual rate of energy efficiency improvements by 2030;
(d) Transitioning away from fossil fuels in energy systems, in a just, orderly and equitable manner, accelerating action in this critical decade, so as to achieve net zero by 2050 in keeping with the science;
— Outcome of the first global stocktake,COP28[101] 13 December 2023
6 September: the first Africa Climate Summit concluded with the "Nairobi Declaration", in which African leaders requested global taxes on carbon pollution, phasing out coal use, and ending fossil fuel subsidies.[103]
25 October: over 200 health journals called on theWorld Health Organization to declare the "indivisible climate and nature crisis" aglobal health emergency, saying that treating the climate crisis and the nature crisis as separate challenges is "a dangerous mistake".[88]
30 November − 12 December: the2023 United Nations Climate Change Conference (COP28) convened inDubai, United Arab Emirates.[101] Controversial because Emirati oil executiveSultan Al Jaber presided over the conference and because of the presence of record numbers of fossil fuel lobbyists, COP28 was the first COP to explicitly call on participants to "transition away from fossil fuels" so as to achievenet zero emissions by 2050, though not adopting calls for a "complete phase-out" of fossil fuels.[101][105]
Key finding 4: global emissions are not in line with modelled global mitigation pathways consistent with the temperature goal of the Paris Agreement, and there is a rapidly narrowing window to raise ambition and implement existing commitments in order to limit warming to 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels.
—U.N. Framework Convention on Climate Change[106] 8 September 2023
15 April: a communique from a meeting ofG7 ministers pledged to collectively increaseoffshore wind capacity by 150 gigawatts by 2030 andsolar capacity to more than 1 terawatt, and agreed to accelerate the phase-out of unabated (withoutrecapture) fossil fuels to achieve net zero by 2050.[107] They stopped short of endorsing a 2030 deadline for phasing out coal, and left the door open for continued investment in gas to help address potential energy shortfalls.[107]
19 May: apolicies studyreview inOne Earth, based on a systematic examination of existing methane policies across sectors, concludes that both only "about 13% ofmethane emissions are covered by methanemitigation policies and that the effectiveness of these policies "is far from clear".[108]
8 June: a study published inPLOS Climate studied defensive and secure forms ofnational identity—respectively called "national narcissism"[Note 1] and "secure national identification"[Note 2]—for their correlation to support for policies to mitigate climate change and to transition to renewable energy.[109] The researchers concluded that secure national identification tends to support policies promoting renewable energy; however, national narcissism was found to be inversely correlated with support for such policies—except to the extent that such policies, as well asgreenwashing, enhance the nationalimage.[109] Right-wing political orientation, which may indicate susceptibility to climate conspiracy beliefs, was also concluded to be negatively correlated with support for genuine climate mitigation policies.[109]
7 August: A global survey study of climate policy researchers, published inNature Sustainability, finds these experts substantially doubt the prevailinggreen growth narrative, "underscor[ing] the importance of considering alternative post-growth perspectives" that include approaches ofagrowth anddegrowth.[110]
Projections for different amounts of global warming: Melting of glacial mass, sea level rise, and loss of number of glaciers.[111]
The consequences of (sea level rise) are unthinkable. Low-lying communities and entire countries could disappear forever. We would witness a mass exodus of entire populations on a biblical scale.
2 January: a study published inEarth's Future (American Geophysical Union) concluded that the greatest increase in the amount of coastal area belowmean sea level will occur in the early stages ofsea level rise (SLR), contrary to earlier assessments, shortening time for adaptation efforts.[113] Latest projections indicate that SLR is certain to exceed 2 metres (6.6 ft) in coming centuries, and a rise by 4 metres (13 ft) is considered possible.[113]
5 January: a study published inScience stated that, based on then-current pledges, global mean temperature is projected to increase by +2.7 °C, which would cause loss of about half of Earth's glaciers by 2100, causing a sea level rise of 115±40 millimeters (not counting ice sheet melt).[111]
30 January: Climate scientists predict, usingartificial intelligence, inProceedings of the National Academy of Sciences thatglobal warming will exceed 1.5 °Cin the next decade (scenarioSSP2-4.5), and a nearly 70% chance of 2 °C between 2044 and 2065 (~2054)—a substantial probability of exceeding the 2 °C threshold—even if emissions rapidly decline (scenarioSSP1-2.6).[114][115]
30 January: A study inNature Sustainability outlines challenges ofaviation decarbonization by 2050 whose identified factors mainly are future demand, continuousefficiency improvements, new short-haul engines, higherSAF (biofuel) production,CO2 removal to compensate for non-CO2 forcing, and related policy-options. With constant air transport demand and aircraft efficiency, decarbonizing aviation would require nearly five times the 2019 worldwidebiofuel production, competing with other hard-to-decarbonize sectors and land-use (orfood security).[116]
February: theInternational Energy Agency'sElectricity Market Report 2023 projected that low-emissions sources will constitute almost all the growth in global electricity demand through 2025, with renewables' portion of global power generation rising from 29% in 2022 to 35% in 2025.[119]
6 March: The highest-granularity studyon food GHGs, published inNature Climate Change, reports thatglobal food consumptionalone would lead tofailedclimate goals with constant patterns, with ~75% of the projected warmingdue to ruminant meat, dairy andrice, albeit consumption currently shifts towards higher emissions overall as economic development is expected to facilitate acquisitions of undifferentiated goods like beef.[120][121]
13 March: a study published inNature Sustainability forecast that floating photovoltaic (FPV) systems on reservoirs could provide 9,434±29 terawatt-hours/year[122]—over a third of global electricity.[123]
5 April: in itsBoom and Bust Coal publication,Global Energy Monitor stated that phasing out operating coal power by 2040 would require an average of 117 GW of retirements per year—4.5 times the capacity retired in 2022.[126] An average of 60 GW/yr for OECD countries, and 91 GW/year for non-OECD countries, must come offline.[126]
17 May: theWMO Global Annual to Decadal Climate Update projected that the chance of global near-surface temperature exceeding 1.5 °C above preindustrial levels for at least one year between 2023 and 2027 is 66%, though it is unlikely (32%) that the five-year mean will exceed 1.5 °C.[127]
Energy transition gathers pace
The adoption of tighter efficiency standards by regulators, structural changes to the economy and the ever-accelerating penetration of EVs are expected to powerfully moderate annual growth in oil demand throughout the (2023–2028) forecast.
—International Energy Agency (IEA)[128] 14 June 2023
20 May: a study published inOne Earth found that increased temperature delays sleep onset and increases the probability of insufficient sleep, estimating that global warming may erode 50–58 hours of sleep per person-year while producing geographic inequalities that scale with future emissions.[129]
Regions and population densities exposed to unprecedented heat at different levels of global warming.[130]
22 May: a study published inNature Sustainability projected that current policies leading to ~2.7 °C global warming could leave 22–39% of humans outside their "human climate niche"—defined as "the historically highly conserved distribution of relative human population density with respect to mean annual temperature."[130] The study projected that reducing warming from 2.7 to 1.5 °C would result in a ~5-fold decrease in population exposed to unprecedented heat.[130]
6 June: a study published inNature Communications projected that under allSSP emissions scenarios considered, the Arctic would be ice-free in September as soon as the 2030s, sooner than the IPCC's earlier projection of mid-century.[131]
7 June: theAmerican Lung Association projected that, by 2050, as the U.S. moves to 100 percent zero emission new passenger vehicles sales and clean electricity generation, the resulting cleaner air could bring $978 billion in public health benefits, 89,300 fewer premature deaths, 2.2 million fewer asthma attacks, and 10.7 million fewer lost workdays.[132]
14 June: theInternational Energy Agency'sOil 2023: Analysis and forecast to 2028 said that demand for oil from combustible fossil fuels is on course to peak in 2028 (the final year of the forecast), and that growth is set to reverse after 2023 for gasoline and after 2026 for transport fuels overall.[128]
19 August: a study published inEnergies projected that global warming reaching 2 °C this century will cause premature deaths in roughly 1 billion humans.[134] The study cited the order-of-magnitude estimate in the "1000-ton rule" that states that a future person is killed every time 1,000 tons of fossil carbon are burned.[134]
28 August: a study published inNature Climate Change projected that without snowmaking, 53% of ski resorts in 28 European countries will be at "very high risk for snow supply" under global warming of 2 °C (98% under 4 °C warming).[135]
2 October: a study published inNature Communications studied the effect of the expected reduction in the amount of dark-colored, light-absorbing atmospheric particles (LAPs) that snow would absorb, making the snow reflect more sunlight, thus reducingradiative forcing that would otherwise warm the Earth.[137] The study concluded that there would be a reduction in radiative forcing from 0.65W/m2 (1995–2014) to 0.49W/m2 (in 2081–2100).[137]
23 October: aWashington Post analysis concluded that by 2040, longer warm and moist transmission seasons and expanding habitats for mosquitos (both caused by climate change), coupled with expected demographic growth, could put more than 5 billion people at risk of contracting malaria.[138]
23 October: a study published inNature Climate Change projected that ocean warming at about triple the historical rate is likely unavoidable in the 21st century, with no significant difference between mid-range emissions scenarios versus achieving the most ambitious targets of the Paris Agreement—suggesting thatgreenhouse gas mitigation has limited ability to prevent collapse of theWest Antarctic Ice Sheet.[139]
24 October: theInternational Energy Agency'sWorld Energy Outlook 2023 stated that "the momentum behind clean energy transitions is now sufficient for global demand for coal, oil and natural gas to all reach a high point before 2030 in the STEPS" (Stated Policies Scenario).[140]
2 November: a study published inOxford Open Climate Change (co-author:James E. Hansen) projected that the recent decline of aerosol emissions should increase the global warming rate of 0.18°C per decade (1970–2010) to at least 0.27°C per decade, so that "under the present geopolitical approach to GHG emissions", warming will exceed 1.5°C in the 2020s and 2°C before 2050.[141]
5 December: a report from the United Nations Environment Programme projected that on current growth trends, electricity for cooling equipment (air conditioning) would more than double by 2050, and that under a business-as-usual scenario, emissions from cooling would account for more than 10% of global emissions in 2050.[142]
Human-caused climate change is already affecting many weather and climate extremes in every region across the globe. This has led to widespread adverse impacts and related losses and damages to nature and people (high confidence). Vulnerable communities who have historically contributed the least to current climate change are disproportionately affected (high confidence).
—"Headline Statement A2" in theAR6 Synthesis Report[143]
Entering uncharted territory
We warn of potential collapse of natural and socioeconomic systems in such a world where we will face unbearable heat, frequent extreme weather events, food and fresh water shortages, rising seas, more emerging diseases, and increased social unrest and geopolitical conflict.
—2023 State of the Climate Report[8] 15,000 scientist signatories, 24 October 2023
^Cislaket al. define National Narcissism as "a belief that one's national group is exceptional and deserves external recognition underlain by unsatisfied psychological needs".
^Cislaket al. define Secure National Identification as "reflect(ing) feelings of strong bonds and solidarity with one's ingroup members, and sense of satisfaction in group membership".
^Becker, Emily (8 June 2023)."June 2023 ENSO update: El Niño is here". National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA).Archived from the original on 10 June 2023.The circus is in town / El Niño conditions are present when we have met all the criteria of our decision tree.
^abShared attribution: Global Energy Monitor, CREA, E3G, Reclaim Finance, Sierra Club, SFOC, Kiko Network, CAN Europe, Bangladesh Groups, ACJCE, Chile Sustentable (5 April 2023)."Boom and Bust Coal / Tracking the Global Coal Plant Pipeline"(PDF). Global Energy Monitor. pp. 13–14.Archived(PDF) from the original on 7 April 2023.{{cite web}}: CS1 maint: multiple names: authors list (link) CS1 maint: numeric names: authors list (link)
^abcLenton, Timothy M.; Xu, Chi; Abrams, Jesse F.; Ghadiali, Ashish; et al. (22 May 2023)."Quantifying the human cost of global warming".Nature Sustainability.2023.Archived from the original on 3 June 2023. Retrieved9 June 2023.
^Chason, Rachel; Crowe, Kevin; Muyskens, John; and Chikwendiu, Jahi (23 October 2023)."Where Malaria is Spreading".The Washington Post. Archived fromthe original on 26 February 2024.
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