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2023 Dutch Senate election

From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

2023 Dutch Senate election
Netherlands
← 2019
30 May 2023
2027 →

All 75 seats in theSenate
38 seats needed for a majority
PartyLeaderVote %Seats+/–
BBBIlona Lagas20.6616New
VVDEdith Schippers12.4010−2
GL[a]Paul Rosenmöller9.677−1
PvdA[a]Mei Li Vos8.867+1
CDATheo Bovens7.346−3
D66Paul van Meenen6.235−2
PVVMarjolein Faber6.104−1
PvdDNiko Koffeman4.7830
JA21Annabel Nanninga4.633New
SPTiny Kox4.143−1
CUTineke Huizinga3.683−1
FvDJohan Dessing2.722−10
VoltGaby Perin-Gopie2.702New
SGPPeter Schalk2.4820
50+Martin van Rooijen1.821−1
OPNLAuke van der Goot1.7810
This lists parties that won seats. See the complete results below.
President of the Senate beforePresident of the Senate after
Jan Anthonie Bruijn
VVD
Jan Anthonie Bruijn
VVD

An election to theDutch Senate was held on 30 May 2023.[2] The 75 members of the Senate were elected by members of the provincial councils and electoral colleges elected two months earlier inprovincial andelectoral college elections.

The four coalition parties saw their combined seat count decrease from 32 to 24. TheFarmer–Citizen Movement (BBB), which had come first in the provincial elections, entered the Senate with 16 seats. TheLabour Party andGroenLinks, which intend to form a joint parliamentary group, won a combined 14 seats.

Background

[edit]

From 2017, the Netherlands had had coalition governments consisting of thePeople's Party for Freedom and Democracy (VVD),Democrats 66 (D66), theChristian Democratic Appeal (CDA) and theChristian Union (CU). In the2019 Senate election, this coalition lost its majority in the Senate, holding 32 seats. Being 6 seats short of a majority made it necessary for the government to seek cooperation with opposition parties such as theLabour Party (PvdA),GroenLinks andJA21 in order to get legislation through the Senate. The coalition parties were long expected to lose more seats in the 2023 Senate election, which would make it more difficult for the government to find majorities for important legislation.[3]

In June 2022, members of the PvdA and GroenLinks voted in favour of the formation of a joint Senate group after the 2023 election. This made the election an important step for theGroenLinks–PvdA alliance.[4]

From 2019, the government had had the intention to limit thehuman impact on the nitrogen cycle. Its nitrogen bill had met resistance from several opposition parties including theFarmer–Citizen Movement (BBB), which was founded in 2019 and entered theHouse of Representatives with one seat in 2021. With BBB expected to become a significant force in the Senate after the 2023 election, the government was expected to look to the left for support. However, in early March 2023, PvdA and GroenLinks, as well as other left-wing parties, also announced their intention to vote against the nitrogen bill in the Senate.[5] The government was also expected to face difficulty finding majorities for its climate legislation[6] and itsDispersal Act concerning the distribution of asylum seekers.[7]

The government was therefore expected to have to make concessions to opposition parties on these pieces of legislation. However, voters of coalition parties were divided over the question whether the government should turn "left" or "right" in search of support for its legislation. A March 2023 poll showed that a majority of D66 voters wanted the government to cooperate with GroenLinks–PvdA, while a majority of VVD and CDA voters would preferred for the government to cooperate with BBB.[8]

Electoral system

[edit]
Main article:Elections in the Netherlands

The Senate consists of 75 members elected every four years by the members of theprovincial councils of the country's twelve provinces, and, following law changes in 2017 and 2022,electoral colleges representing thespecial municipalities ofBonaire,Sint Eustatius andSaba[9][10] and Dutch nationals living abroad, who are in turn elected directly by the citizens two months earlier in the2023 provincial andelectoral college elections.

The weight of each elector's vote is determined by the population of the province or special municipality which the elector represents, at a ratio of approximately 1 vote per 100 residents. The seats are distributed in one nationwide constituency usingparty-list proportional representation.[11]

Electors

[edit]
Party or allianceProvincial councilsElectoral collegesTotal+/−
DRFLFRGEGRLINBNHOVUTZEZHNIBOSASE
Farmer–Citizen Movement17101414121011817798137New
GL–PvdAGroenLinks[b]233554574736559−2
Labour Party[b]435553473334251−2
Total668101079147106107000110−4
People's Party for Freedom and Democracy443625984648467−13
Christian Democratic Appeal3244254244541145−27
Democrats 66121323442514436−5
Party for Freedom23222643222434−6
Party for the Animals221222241313227+7
JA2112122232214224New
Socialist Party221223421112124−11
Christian Union[c]2223311331223−9
Forum for Democracy121111121112217−69
Reformed Political Party23225216+2
OPNLFrisian National Party440
Groninger Belang330
Lokaal Brabant22+1
Lokaal Limburg220
Party for Zeeland220
Party for the North11−1
Provinciaal Belang Fryslân11+1
Sterk Lokaal Drenthe110
Sterk Lokaal Flevoland11New
Total115042200020000017+2
Volt Netherlands12112121213New
50PLUS11112118−9
Windward Islands People's Movement55+1
Democratic Party of Sint Eustatius44−1
Bonaire Democratic Party330
Bonaire Patriotic Union220
Bonaire People's Movement22−2
Independent Jaap Kos11New
Movement 2111New
DENK0−4
Saba Labour Party0−1
Total43414355434755554749395525955616+27
Weight per vote[12]117109153388139240478537252283100692202747
Total weighted votes5,0314,4696,57921,3405,97711,28026,29029,53511,84413,8673,90038,0605002432035178,970+5,295

Participating parties

[edit]

The following parties were due to participate in the 2023 Senate election:[13]

ListPartyLead candidate2019 result
1Forum for DemocracyFvDJohan Dessing15.87% (12 seats)
2People's Party for Freedom and DemocracyVVDEdith Schippers15.11% (12 seats)
3Christian Democratic AppealCDATheo Bovens11.41% (9 seats)
4GroenLinks[a]GLPaul Rosenmöller11.18% (8 seats)
5Democrats 66D66Paul van Meenen8.75% (7 seats)
6Labour Party[a]PvdAMei Li Vos8.62% (6 seats)
7Party for FreedomPVVMarjolein Faber6.53% (5 seats)
8Socialist PartySPTiny Kox5.88% (4 seats)
9Christian UnionCUTineke Huizinga5.03% (4 seats)
10Party for the AnimalsPvdDNiko Koffeman3.78% (3 seats)
1150PLUS50+Martin van Rooijen3.03% (2 seats)
12Reformed Political PartySGPPeter Schalk2.60% (2 seats)
13Independent Politics NetherlandsOPNLAuke van der Goot1.31% (1 seat)
14JA21JA21Annabel Nanninga
15Farmer–Citizen MovementBBBIlona Lagas
16Volt NetherlandsVOLTGaby Perin-Gopie

Seat projections

[edit]

The table and graphs below show seat projections for the Senate election. Projections before the provincial and electoral college elections on 15 March are based onopinion polling for the provincial elections. The 15 March projection is based onexit polls of the provincial elections, while the 19 March projection byANP is based on preliminary results of the provincial and electoral college elections.[14]

Seat projections for the 2023 Senate election
Polling firmFieldwork dateSample sizeBBBGLPvdAVVDCDAD66PVVPvdDSPJA21FvDCU50+SGPOPNLVoltDenkOthersRef
2023 election30 May 2023N/A16771065433323121200[15]
ANP19 Mar 2023N/A[d]17871055543322111100[16]
Ipsos15 Mar 2023N/A[e]15871056443323111200[17]
Ipsos10–14 Mar 20232,00213861254845322110100[18]
Peil.nl10–11 Mar 20233,000+12141247843323011100[19]
I&O2–6 Mar 20238,19613141035754522021200[20]
Peil.nl3–4 Mar 20233,000+10141257834333011100[21]
Ipsos17–27 Feb 20235,2919851556945322010100[22]
Peil.nl17–18 Feb 20233,000+8131356944523011100[23]
Ipsos10–13 Feb 20231,9618651557944322021110[24]
Peil.nl27–28 Jan 20233,000+7131246943633021200[25]
Peil.nl11–12 Nov 20223,000+613113610447236[26]
2019 election27 May 2019N/A86129753412422100

Results

[edit]

As projected, theFarmer–Citizen Movement became the largest party, winning 16 seats (as opposed to the projected 17).Strategic voting of D66 and VVD electors resulted in extra seats for their coalition partners CDA and CU.[27] Moreover, compared to the projections, GroenLinks lost one seat to Volt as GroenLinks elector Debora Fernald voted for Volt.[28]

With the coalition parties winning 24 seats in the Senate, an additional 14 opposition votes are necessary for a 38 vote majority. Support from either BBB (16) or GroenLinks–PvdA (14) suffices.[29]

PartyUnweighted voteWeighted voteSeats
VotesDeviation%Votes%±ppQuotientRemainderTotal+/−
Farmer–Citizen Movement137±022.2436,97620.66New15116New
People's Party for Freedom and Democracy67±010.8822,19412.40−2.719110−2
GroenLinks55−48.9317,3139.67−1.51707−1
Labour Party68+1711.0415,8628.86+0.24617+1
Christian Democratic Appeal47+27.6313,1367.34−4.07516−3
Democrats 6637+16.0111,1446.23−2.52415−2
Party for Freedom34±05.5210,9226.10−0.43404−1
Party for the Animals27±04.388,5604.78+1.003030
JA2124±03.908,2894.63New303New
Socialist Party24±03.907,4044.14−1.74303−1
Christian Union23±03.736,5953.68−1.35213−1
Forum for Democracy17±02.764,8662.72−13.15202−10
Volt14+12.274,8262.70New202New
Reformed Political Party17+12.764,4362.48−0.121120
50PLUS8±01.303,2641.82−1.21101−1
Independent Politics Netherlands17±02.763,1831.78+0.471010
Total616+18100.00178,970100.00687750
Source: Kiesraad[30]

Notes

[edit]
  1. ^abcdGroenLinks and theLabour Party took part in the election with separate lists, but intend to form ajoint Senate group.[1]
  2. ^abIncludes 3 out of 6 members of theGroenLinks–PvdA group in theProvincial Council of Zeeland.
  3. ^Includes 1 member of theChristenUnie–SGP group in theProvincial Council of North Brabant.
  4. ^Based on preliminary results of the provincial and electoral college elections, with 99% of votes counted.
  5. ^Based on exit polls of the provincial elections.

References

[edit]
  1. ^"PvdA en GroenLinks presenteren lijsten Eerste Kamer: 'gezamenlijk de grootste'".GroenLinks (in Dutch). 1 December 2022. Retrieved10 April 2023.
  2. ^"Eerste Kamerverkiezingen 2023".Parlement.com (in Dutch). Retrieved10 April 2023.
  3. ^"Migratie, stikstof en andere kwesties maken van 2023 een spannend politiek jaar".NOS (in Dutch). 21 January 2023. Retrieved30 March 2023.
  4. ^"Grote stap voor PvdA, GroenLinks: verder samen in Eerste Kamer".NOS (in Dutch). 11 June 2022. Retrieved26 March 2023.
  5. ^"Oppositiepartijen tegen stikstofwet van kabinet".NOS (in Dutch). 5 March 2023. Retrieved30 March 2023.
  6. ^"Links stemt tegen klimaatplannen kabinet als die niet ambitieuzer worden".NOS (in Dutch). 7 March 2023. Retrieved30 March 2023.
  7. ^"Spreidingswet naar Tweede Kamer, maar nieuwe Eerste Kamer lijkt serieuzer obstakel".NOS (in Dutch). 24 March 2023. Retrieved30 March 2023.
  8. ^"Coalitiekiezers verdeeld na verkiezingen: VVD en CDA-stemmers willen samenwerken met BBB, die van D66 met GL/PvdA".EenVandaag (in Dutch). 16 March 2023. Retrieved30 March 2023.
  9. ^"Kiesrecht voor Eerste Kamer voor Caribisch Nederland".Rijksoverheid (in Dutch). Retrieved5 October 2018.
  10. ^"Electoral colleges for the Senate".Kiesraad. 24 January 2019. Retrieved28 February 2019.
  11. ^"Eerste Kamer".Kiesraad (in Dutch). 20 April 2016. Retrieved5 October 2018.
  12. ^"Stemwaarden Eerste Kamerverkiezing 2023 vastgesteld".Kiesraad (in Dutch). 4 May 2023. Retrieved12 May 2023.
  13. ^"Kandidatenlijsten Eerste Kamerverkiezing vastgesteld".Kiesraad (in Dutch). 8 May 2023. Retrieved12 May 2023.
  14. ^"BBB klimt in jongste prognose naar 17 zetels, D66 zakt naar 5 zetels".NOS (in Dutch). 19 March 2023. Retrieved10 April 2023.
  15. ^"Kiesraad stelt uitslag verkiezingen Eerste Kamer vast".Eerste Kamer der Staten-Generaal (in Dutch). 1 June 2023. Retrieved3 June 2023.
  16. ^"BBB klimt in jongste prognose naar 17 zetels, D66 zakt naar 5 zetels". 19 March 2023.
  17. ^"Exitpoll Eerste Kamer: BBB en combinatie PvdA/GL de grootste, coalitie verliest fors". 15 March 2023.
  18. ^"Laatste zetelpeiling Eerste Kamer: Coalitie verder in de problemen, BBB wint fors". 14 March 2023.
  19. ^"Prognose PS2023: Driestrijd tussen BBB, VVD en GroenLinks+PvdA – Peilingen".
  20. ^"Driestrijd tussen BBB, VVD en PvdA/GroenLinks bij PS- en EK-verkiezingen". 11 March 2023.
  21. ^"De Stemming 5-3-2023: BBB groeit verder buiten de Randstad – Peilingen".
  22. ^"PvdA en GroenLinks naderen VVD in zetelpeiling Eerste Kamer, coalitiestemmers verdeeld over samenwerking over links of rechts". 28 February 2023.
  23. ^"3 weken voor de verkiezingen tekenen de contouren van de uitslag zich af – Peilingen".
  24. ^"VVD grootste in zetelpeiling Eerste Kamer, BBB uit het niets op 8 zetels". 14 February 2023.
  25. ^"De Stemming 29-1-2023: Prognose PS2023 – Peilingen".
  26. ^"Vier maanden voor PS2023 – Peilingen".
  27. ^"Tumult in fracties over strategisch stemmen".Binnenlands Bestuur (in Dutch). 30 May 2023. Retrieved4 June 2023.
  28. ^"GroenLinks-Statenlid Debora Fernald stemde op Volt, uit fractie gezet".NOS (in Dutch). 30 May 2023. Retrieved3 June 2023.
  29. ^"Nieuwe Eerste Kamer: coalitie heeft ook met PvdA/GL meerderheid, BBB grootste".NOS (in Dutch). 30 May 2023. Retrieved3 June 2023.
  30. ^"Proces-verbaal uitslag Eerste Kamerverkiezing 2023 - Proces-verbaal - Kiesraad.nl". June 2023.
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