 | |||||||||||||||||
| Turnout | 45.85% | ||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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 County results Congressional district results Precinct resultsAbbott: 40–50% 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% 80–90% >90% O'Rourke: 40–50% 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% 80–90% >90% Tie: 40–50% 50% No data | |||||||||||||||||
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The2022 Texas gubernatorial election took place on November 8, 2022, to elect thegovernor of Texas. IncumbentRepublican GovernorGreg Abbott won a third term, defeating theDemocratic nominee, former CongressmanBeto O'Rourke.[1] All statewide elected offices were currently held by Republicans. In his previousgubernatorial race in 2018, Abbott won with 55.8% of the vote.[2]
The Democratic and Republican primaries were held on March 1, 2022. O'Rourke and Abbott won outright majorities in their respective primaries, and therefore did not participate in the May 24 runoffs.
Texas had not elected a Democratic candidate for governor sinceAnn Richards won a narrow victory in1990. Additionally, Abbott had a strong approval rating on election day, with 55% of voters approving to 45% disapproving.[3] Beto O'Rourke, who gained national attention in2018 for his unusually close and competitive campaign against SenatorTed Cruz, was at one-time widely viewed as a rising star in the Texas Democratic Party and potential challenger for Abbott. However, in the intervening years, he amassed baggage that was leveraged against him in 2022. Afailed run for President of the United States in2020 was leveraged by Republicans to characterize him as opportunistic. Stances he had taken (and since reneged) related togun control during that presidential campaign were also leveraged against him by Republicans.
Abbott won by 10.9%, a slightly smaller margin of victory than his 13.3% margin in 2018 in spite of a much more Republican national climate in 2022, making this the closest gubernatorial election in Texas since2006, and the closest election of Abbott's entire political career since his first race for theTexas Supreme Court in1998. Beto O'Rourke, meanwhile, performed 8.3% worse than his 2018 Senate run, but he still won the highest share for a Democratic gubernatorial candidate since Ann Richards received 45.9% in her unsuccessful reelection bid againstGeorge W. Bush in1994. Abbott's raw vote total was less than his 4.65 million in 2018, while O'Rourke set a record of most raw votes for a Texas Democratic gubernatorial candidate at around 3.55 million, but it was also less than his 4.04 million vote total in the 2018 Senate race.
Abbott carried 235 out of 254 counties, flipping the heavilyHispanic counties ofCulberson andZapata and becoming the first Republican gubernatorial candidate to win the latter in the state's history (though Zapata had earlier voted Republican in the2020 presidential election), while O'Rourke became the first Democratic gubernatorial candidate to win the county ofFort Bend since1974. O'Rourke outperformedJoe Biden two years prior amongLatino voters, though his performance with them was still worse than past nominees.
On June 4, 2021,Texas Republican Party chairmanAllen West announced his resignation as party chair.[4] West criticized Gov. Greg Abbott's handling of theCOVID-19 pandemic in Texas.[5] The history of conflict between West and Abbott included a lawsuit by West and other Republicans challenging Abbott's extension of the early voting period in 2020, as well as a protest outside theGovernor's Mansion over pandemic-related shutdowns as well as mask mandates.[6] On July 4, 2021, West announced that he would challenge Abbott in the 2022 gubernatorial primary.[7] Both West and fellow gubernatorial candidateDon Huffines were considered more conservative than Abbott.[8][9] On March 1, 2022, Abbott won the Republican primary by a smaller margin than in 2018.
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Graphical summary
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| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size[a] | Margin of error | Greg Abbott | Don Huffines | Ricky Lynn Perry | Chad Prather | Allen West | Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| The Trafalgar Group (R)[49] | February 25–28, 2022 | 1,040 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 62% | 10% | 2% | 2% | 15% | 5%[b] | 3% |
| Emerson College[50] | February 21–22, 2022 | 522 (LV) | ± 4.2% | 61% | 9% | 3% | 3% | 12% | 3%[c] | 9% |
| UT Tyler[51] | February 8–15, 2022 | 581 (LV) | ± 4.4% | 60% | 3% | 6% | 3% | 7% | 5%[d] | 15% |
| YouGov/UT[52] | January 28 – February 7, 2022 | 375 (LV) | ± 5.1% | 60% | 14% | 5% | 3% | 15% | 3%[e] | – |
| Paradigm Partners (R)[53][A] | January 31, 2022 | 1,542 (LV) | ± 2.5% | 34% | 5% | 6% | 6% | 43% | 3%[f] | 4% |
| UT Tyler[54] | January 18–25, 2022 | 514 (LV) | ± 5.1% | 59% | 4% | 4% | 2% | 6% | 4%[g] | 20% |
| YouGov/UH[55] | January 14–24, 2022 | 490 (LV) | ± 3.7% | 58% | 7% | 3% | 2% | 11% | 2%[h] | 17% |
| Paradigm Partners (R)[56][A] | January 9, 2022 | 1,486 (LV) | ± 2.5% | 33% | 5% | 12% | 3% | 38% | 3%[i] | 7% |
| Paradigm Partners (R)[56][A] | December 16, 2021 | 447 (LV) | ± 4.5% | 33% | 2% | 15% | 1% | 35% | – | 14% |
| Paradigm Partners (R)[56][A] | November 30, 2021 | – (LV) | – | 42% | 3% | – | 2% | 36% | – | 17% |
| UT Tyler[57] | November 9–16, 2021 | 520 (LV) | ± 4.7% | 65% | 3% | – | 6% | 6% | 3% | 18% |
| Paradigm Partners (R)[56][A] | November 11, 2021 | – (LV) | – | 43% | 3% | – | 2% | 33% | – | 19% |
| YouGov/UT/TT[58] | October 22–31, 2021 | 554 (RV) | ± 4.2% | 56% | 7% | – | 4% | 13% | 4% | 16% |
| YouGov/TXHPF[59] | October 14–27, 2021 | 405 (LV) | ± 4.9% | 61% | 4% | – | 3% | 13% | – | 19% |
| UT Tyler[60] | September 7–14, 2021 | 427 (LV) | ± 6.1% | 70% | 15% | – | – | – | 15% | – |
| 431 (LV) | ± 6.0% | 65% | – | – | – | 20% | 15% | – | ||
| Victory Insights (R)[61] | July 22–24, 2021 | 400 (RV) | ± 4.9% | 80% | – | – | – | 20% | – | – |
| Paradigm Partners (R)[56][A] | June 30, 2021 | – (LV) | – | 73% | – | – | – | 17% | – | 10% |
| UT Tyler[62] | June 22–29, 2021 | 440 (LV) | ± 5.4% | 77% | 12% | – | – | – | 11% | – |
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size[a] | Margin of error | Greg Abbott | Don Huffines | Sid Miller | Allen West | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Opinion Strategies (R)[63][B] | June 14–17, 2021 | 446 (LV) | ± 4.6% | 69% | 3% | 3% | 13% | – |
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republican | Greg Abbott (incumbent) | 1,299,059 | 66.48% | |
| Republican | Allen West | 239,557 | 12.26% | |
| Republican | Don Huffines | 234,138 | 11.98% | |
| Republican | Chad Prather | 74,173 | 3.80% | |
| Republican | Ricky Lynn Perry | 61,424 | 3.14% | |
| Republican | Kandy Kaye Horn | 23,605 | 1.21% | |
| Republican | Paul Belew | 11,387 | 0.58% | |
| Republican | Danny Harrison | 10,829 | 0.55% | |
| Total votes | 1,954,172 | 100% | ||
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| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size[a] | Margin of error | Inocencio Barrientez | Michael Cooper | Joy Diaz | Jack Foster Jr. | Deirdre Gilbert | Star Locke | Beto O'Rourke | Rich Wakeland | Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Emerson College[50] | February 21–22, 2022 | 388 (LV) | ± 4.9% | 1% | 5% | 4% | – | – | – | 78% | 2% | – | 11% |
| UT Tyler[51] | February 8–15, 2022 | 479 (LV) | ± 4.9% | 2% | 3% | 4% | 2% | 2% | 2% | 68% | 2% | – | 14% |
| YouGov/UT[52] | January 28 – February 7, 2022 | 348 (LV) | ± 5.3% | 2% | 1% | 2% | – | – | – | 93% | 1% | 1% | – |
| UT Tyler[54] | January 18–25, 2022 | 459 (LV) | ± 5.4% | 1% | 6% | 4% | 2% | 1% | 1% | 58% | 0% | – | 27% |
| YouGov/UH[55] | January 14–24, 2022 | 616 (LV) | ± 3.3% | 3% | 4% | 3% | – | – | – | 73% | 1% | – | 16% |
| YouGov/UT/TT[58] | October 22–31, 2021 | 436 (RV) | ± 4.7% | – | – | – | – | – | – | 70% | – | 5% | 25% |
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Democratic | Beto O'Rourke | 983,182 | 91.41% | |
| Democratic | Joy Diaz | 33,622 | 3.13% | |
| Democratic | Michael Cooper | 32,673 | 3.04% | |
| Democratic | Rich Wakeland | 13,237 | 1.23% | |
| Democratic | Inocencio Barrientez | 12,887 | 1.20% | |
| Total votes | 1,075,601 | 100% | ||
| Source | Ranking | As of |
|---|---|---|
| The Cook Political Report[106] | Likely R | March 4, 2022 |
| Inside Elections[107] | Solid R | July 22, 2022 |
| Sabato's Crystal Ball[108] | Likely R | June 29, 2022 |
| Politico[109] | Likely R | April 1, 2022 |
| RCP[110] | Lean R | January 10, 2022 |
| Fox News[111] | Likely R | May 12, 2022 |
| 538[112] | Solid R | September 21, 2022 |
| Elections Daily[113] | Likely R | November 7, 2022 |
| No. | Date | Host | Moderators | Link | Republican | Democratic |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Key: P Participant A Absent N Non-invitee I Invitee W Withdrawn | ||||||
| Greg Abbott | Beto O'Rourke | |||||
| 1 | Sep. 30, 2022 | KXAN-TV | Sally Hernandez Gromer Jeffers Steve Spriester | KXAN-TV[114] | P | P |
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Aggregate polls
| Source of poll aggregation | Dates administered | Dates updated | Greg Abbott (R) | Beto O'Rourke (D) | Other [j] | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Real Clear Politics[164] | October 3–19, 2022 | October 25, 2022 | 52.8% | 43.5% | 3.7% | Abbott +9.3 |
| FiveThirtyEight[165] | June 14, 2021 – October 25, 2022 | October 25, 2022 | 51.4% | 42.9% | 5.7% | Abbott +8.5 |
| Average | 52.1% | 43.2% | 4.7% | Abbott +8.9 | ||
Graphical summary
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| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size[a] | Margin of error | Greg Abbott (R) | Beto O'Rourke (D) | Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CWS Research (R)[166][C] | November 2–5, 2022 | 786 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 53% | 42% | 2% | 3% |
| UT Tyler[167] | October 17–24, 2022 | 1,330 (RV) | ± 2.9% | 47% | 44% | 7%[k] | 1% |
| 973 (LV) | ± 3.4% | 50% | 44% | 5%[l] | 1% | ||
| Emerson College[168] | October 17–19, 2022 | 1,000 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 52% | 42% | 1%[m] | 4% |
| 53% | 44% | 3%[n] | – | ||||
| Siena College[169] | October 16–19, 2022 | 649 (LV) | ± 5.1% | 52% | 43% | 2%[o] | 4% |
| Beacon Research (D)[170][D] | October 15–19, 2022 | 1,264 (RV) | ± 2.8% | 48% | 45% | – | – |
| BSP Research/UT[171][E] | October 11–18, 2022 | 1,400 (RV) | ± 2.6% | 46% | 42% | 3%[p] | 9% |
| YouGov/UT[172] | October 7–17, 2022 | 833 (LV) | ± 3.3% | 54% | 43% | 4%[q] | 2% |
| Civiqs[173] | October 8–11, 2022 | 791 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 52% | 44% | 3%[r] | 0% |
| Marist College[174] | October 3–6, 2022 | 1,058 (RV) | ± 4.4% | 49% | 45% | 1%[s] | 5% |
| 898 (LV) | ± 4.8% | 52% | 44% | 1%[t] | 4% | ||
| Quinnipiac University[175] | September 22–26, 2022 | 1,327 (LV) | ± 2.7% | 53% | 46% | 2%[u] | – |
| Emerson College[176] | September 20–22, 2022 | 1,000 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 50% | 42% | 4%[v] | 5% |
| ActiVote[177] | June 23 – September 21, 2022 | 323 (LV) | ± 6.0% | 47% | 40% | 12%[w] | – |
| Siena College[178] | September 14–18, 2022 | 651 (LV) | ± 4.4% | 50% | 43% | 2%[x] | 5% |
| Texas Hispanic Policy Foundation[179] | September 6–15, 2022 | 1,172 (LV) | ± 2.9% | 51% | 44% | 2%[y] | 3% |
| UT Tyler[180] | September 7–13, 2022 | 1,268 (RV) | ± 2.9% | 47% | 38% | 9%[z] | 2% |
| Data for Progress (D)[181] | September 2–9, 2022 | 712 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 50% | 45% | 2%[aa] | 3% |
| Echelon Insights[182] | August 31 – September 7, 2022 | 813 (LV) | ± 4.4% | 48% | 46% | – | 6% |
| YouGov/UT[183] | August 26 – September 6, 2022 | 1,200 (RV) | ± 2.8% | 45% | 40% | 4%[ab] | 11% |
| YouGov/UH/TSU[184] | August 11–29, 2022 | 1,312 (LV) | ± 2.7% | 49% | 42% | 2%[ac] | 7% |
| UT Tyler[185] | August 1–7, 2022 | 1,384 (RV) | ± 2.8% | 46% | 39% | 13%[ad] | 1% |
| 1,215 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 48% | 42% | 9%[ae] | 1% | ||
| YouGov/UH[186] | June 27 – July 7, 2022 | 1,169 (RV) | ± 2.9% | 47% | 42% | 2%[af] | 9% |
| 1,006 (LV) | ± 3.1% | 49% | 44% | 2%[af] | 5% | ||
| YouGov/CBS News[187] | June 22–27, 2022 | 548 (LV) | ± 6.6% | 49% | 41% | 4% | 6% |
| YouGov/UT[188] | June 16–24, 2022 | 1,200 (RV) | ± 2.8% | 45% | 39% | 6%[ag] | 10% |
| YouGov/PerryUndem[189] | June 15–24, 2022 | 2,000 (RV) | ± 2.2% | 47% | 43% | 3% | 5% |
| Quinnipiac University[175] | June 9–13, 2022 | 1,257 (RV) | ± 2.8% | 48% | 43% | 2% | 5% |
| Blueprint Polling (D)[190] | June 8–10, 2022 | 603 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 56% | 37% | – | 7% |
| UT Tyler[191] | May 2–10, 2022 | 1,232 (RV) | ± 3.1% | 46% | 39% | 14%[ah] | 2% |
| YouGov/UT[192] | April 14–22, 2022 | 1,200 (RV) | ± 2.8% | 48% | 37% | 7% | 9% |
| YouGov/TXHPF[193] | March 18–28, 2022 | 1,139 (LV) | ± 2.9% | 50% | 42% | 3%[ai] | 5% |
| Texas Lyceum[194] | March 11–20, 2022 | 926 (RV) | ± 3.2% | 42% | 40% | 7% | 11% |
| Emerson College[50] | February 21–22, 2022 | 1,000 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 52% | 45% | – | 3% |
| UT Tyler[51] | February 8–15, 2022 | 1,188 (RV) | ± 3.1% | 45% | 38% | 16% | 1% |
| Climate Nexus[195] | February 1–9, 2022 | 806 (LV) | ± 3.6% | 45% | 40% | 7% | 8% |
| YouGov/UT[52] | January 28 – February 7, 2022 | 1,200 (RV) | ± 2.8% | 47% | 37% | 6% | 11% |
| UT Tyler[54] | January 18–25, 2022 | 1,072 (RV) | ± 3.5% | 47% | 36% | 16% | 1% |
| YouGov/UH[55] | January 14–24, 2022 | – (LV)[aj] | –[aj] | 48% | 43% | 3%[ak] | 6% |
| Quinnipiac University[196] | December 2–6, 2021 | 1,224 (RV) | ± 2.8% | 52% | 37% | 4% | 6% |
| UT Tyler[57] | November 9–16, 2021 | 1,106 (RV) | ± 3.2% | 45% | 39% | 16% | – |
| Redfield & Wilton Strategies[197] | November 9, 2021 | 884 (RV) | ± 3.3% | 40% | 39% | 5% | 7% |
| 854 (LV) | ± 3.4% | 43% | 44% | 5% | 6% | ||
| YouGov/UT/TT[58] | October 22–31, 2021 | 1,200 (RV) | ± 2.8% | 46% | 37% | 7% | 10% |
| YouGov/TXHPF[59] | October 14–27, 2021 | 1,402 (RV) | ± 3.1% | 43% | 42% | 3%[al] | 12% |
| UT Tyler[60] | September 7–14, 2021 | 1,148 (RV) | ± 3.7% | 42% | 37% | 21% | – |
| UT Tyler[62] | June 22–29, 2021 | 1,090 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 45% | 33% | 22% | – |
| Public Opinion Strategies (R)[198][F] | June 14–17, 2021 | 800 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 52% | 42% | – | 6% |
Greg Abbott vs. Julián Castro
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size[a] | Margin of error | Greg Abbott (R) | Julián Castro (D) | Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Redfield & Wilton Strategies[197] | November 9, 2021 | 884 (RV) | ± 3.3% | 43% | 35% | 4% | 9% |
| 854 (LV) | ± 3.4% | 45% | 39% | 4% | 8% |
Greg Abbott vs. Beto O'Rourke with Matthew McConaughey as an independent
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size[a] | Margin of error | Greg Abbott (R) | Beto O'Rourke (D) | Matthew McConaughey (I) | Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Echelon Insights[182] | August 31 – September 7, 2022 | 813 (LV) | ± 4.4% | 42% | 39% | 13% | – | 6% |
| UT Tyler[57] | November 9–16, 2021 | 1,106 (RV) | ± 3.2% | 37% | 26% | 27% | 10% | – |
| YouGov/TXHPF[59] | October 14–27, 2021 | 1,402 (RV) | ± 3.1% | 40% | 37% | 9% | 2%[am] | 12% |
Greg Abbott vs. Don Huffines
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size[a] | Margin of error | Greg Abbott (R) | Don Huffines | Other |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UT Tyler[62] | June 22–29, 2021 | 1,090 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 46% | 22% | 32% |
Greg Abbott vs. Matthew McConaughey
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size[a] | Margin of error | Greg Abbott (R) | Matthew McConaughey | Other |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UT Tyler[57] | November 9–16, 2021 | 1,106 (RV) | ± 3.2% | 35% | 43% | 22% |
| UT Tyler[60] | September 7–14, 2021 | 1,148 (RV) | ± 3.7% | 35% | 44% | 21% |
| UT Tyler[62] | June 22–29, 2021 | 1,090 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 39% | 38% | 23% |
| UT Tyler[199] | April 6–13, 2021 | 1,124 (RV) | ± 2.9% | 33% | 45% | 22% |
Greg Abbott vs. generic Democrat
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size[a] | Margin of error | Greg Abbott (R) | Generic Democrat | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Data for Progress (D)[200][G] | September 15–22, 2020 | 726 (LV) | ± 3.6% | 46% | 34% | 20% |
Greg Abbott vs. generic opponent
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size[a] | Margin of error | Greg Abbott (R) | Generic Opponent | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Quinnipiac University[201] | September 24–27, 2021 | 863 (RV) | ± 3.3% | 42% | 51% | 7% |
| Quinnipiac University[202] | June 15–21, 2021 | 1,099 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 46% | 48% | 6% |
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | ±% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republican | Greg Abbott (incumbent) | 4,437,099 | 54.76% | −1.05% | |
| Democratic | Beto O'Rourke | 3,553,656 | 43.86% | +1.35% | |
| Libertarian | Mark Tippetts | 81,932 | 1.01% | −0.68% | |
| Green | Delilah Barrios | 28,584 | 0.35% | N/A | |
| American Solidarity | Jacqueline Abernathy | 1,243 | 0.02% | N/A | |
| Total votes | 8,102,908 | 100.00% | N/A | ||
| Turnout | 8,102,908 | 45.85% | |||
| Registered electors | 17,672,143 | ||||
| Republicanhold | |||||
| Democratic Hold Gain from Republican | Republican Hold Gain from Democratic |
Abbott won 25 of 38 congressional districts.[204]
| District | Abbott | O'Rourke | Representative |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1st | 77% | 22% | Louie Gohmert (117th Congress) |
| Nathaniel Moran (118th Congress) | |||
| 2nd | 62% | 36% | Dan Crenshaw |
| 3rd | 59% | 39% | Van Taylor (117th Congress) |
| Keith Self (118th Congress) | |||
| 4th | 66% | 33% | Pat Fallon |
| 5th | 63% | 35% | Lance Gooden |
| 6th | 65% | 34% | Jake Ellzey |
| 7th | 35% | 63% | Lizzie Fletcher |
| 8th | 67% | 32% | Kevin Brady (117th Congress) |
| Morgan Luttrell (118th Congress) | |||
| 9th | 23% | 76% | Al Green |
| 10th | 61% | 37% | Michael McCaul |
| 11th | 74% | 25% | August Pfluger |
| 12th | 60% | 39% | Kay Granger |
| 13th | 75% | 24% | Ronny Jackson |
| 14th | 66% | 32% | Randy Weber |
| 15th | 52% | 46% | Vicente Gonzalez (117th Congress) |
| Monica De La Cruz (118th Congress) | |||
| 16th | 35% | 64% | Veronica Escobar |
| 17th | 65% | 34% | Pete Sessions |
| 18th | 25% | 73% | Sheila Jackson Lee |
| 19th | 77% | 22% | Jodey Arrington |
| 20th | 32% | 66% | Joaquín Castro |
| 21st | 61% | 38% | Chip Roy |
| 22nd | 59% | 39% | Troy Nehls |
| 23rd | 54% | 44% | Tony Gonzales |
| 24th | 58% | 41% | Beth Van Duyne |
| 25th | 68% | 31% | Roger Williams |
| 26th | 61% | 37% | Michael Burgess |
| 27th | 64% | 35% | Michael Cloud |
| 28th | 46% | 52% | Henry Cuellar |
| 29th | 30% | 68% | Sylvia Garcia |
| 30th | 22% | 77% | Eddie Bernice Johnson (117th Congress) |
| Jasmine Crockett (118th Congress) | |||
| 31st | 61% | 37% | John Carter |
| 32nd | 34% | 64% | Colin Allred |
| 33rd | 26% | 73% | Marc Veasey |
| 34th | 43% | 56% | Mayra Flores (117th Congress) |
| Vicente Gonzalez (118th Congress) | |||
| 35th | 26% | 73% | Lloyd Doggett (117th Congress) |
| Greg Casar (118th Congress) | |||
| 36th | 67% | 31% | Brian Babin |
| 37th | 21% | 77% | Lloyd Doggett |
| 38th | 61% | 38% | Wesley Hunt |
Texas Democrats hoped for Beto O'Rourke to achieve an upset over the incumbent Greg Abbott, which did not materialize. Abbott won by 10.9%, down from 13.3% in 2018. Abbott's margin was slightly larger than aggregate polling, but virtually in line with the last poll conducted. He won the vast majority of counties (235 out of 254), mostly rural, and by significantly wide margins. In particular, 34 counties, mainly inWest Texas and theTexas panhandle, gave Abbott over 90% of the vote. This was the most by any Texas Republican gubernatorial candidate, and the most for any candidate since DemocratAllan Shivers'1954 re-election.[206]
Abbott won the three largest metro areas in the state, which includeDallas–Fort Worth–Arlington inNorth Texas,Houston–The Woodlands–Sugar Land inSoutheast Texas, andSan Antonio–New Braunfels inSouth-Central Texas. He also won all of the state's mid-sized metro areas outside of the Rio Grande Valley, which includeCorpus Christi along the coastal bend;Waco,Killeen–Temple–Fort Hood, andBryan–College Station inCentral Texas;Beaumont–Port Arthur,Tyler andLongview inEast Texas;Lubbock,Abilene, andMidland-Odessa inWest Texas; andAmarillo in thePanhandle. Abbott also won an urban county,Tarrant, home toFort Worth and did well in the suburban counties of theTexas Triangle, winningBrazoria,Galveston, andMontgomery counties aroundHouston;Comal andGuadalupe aroundSan Antonio;Collin,Denton,Ellis,Kaufman, andRockwall in theDallas-Fort Worth metroplex; andWilliamson inGreater Austin.[207]
InDFW and Austin specifically, Republican strength had declined somewhat in these metros, with Abbott carrying Collin, Denton, Tarrant, and Williamson by 10.07%, 12.81%, 4.11%, and 0.62% respectively, down from his margins of 19.48%, 20.60%, 10.64%, and 10.71% from 2018. Excluding the largest metro areas, Abbott improved on his 2018 margins.
O'Rourke, despite his loss, did best in most of Texas's urban centers. He carriedTravis, home to the state capitalAustin (72.6%-25.9%), his best performance in the state;El Paso, his home county, 63.4%-35%;Dallas (62.8%-35.9%);Bexar, home toSan Antonio (57.5%-41.1%); andHarris, home toHouston (54%-44.5%). He also carriedHays, a rapidly growing county south of Austin which containsSan Marcos andTexas State University along with fast-growing cities ofKyle, andBuda by 54.5%-43.7%. Despite improving on 2018 nomineeLupe Valdez's margins in these counties, he did worse in all of them compared to his Senate campaign in2018, and, excluding Travis and Hays, worse thanJoe Biden in the2020 presidential race. The only county O'Rourke flipped was suburbanFort Bend outside Houston, which voted for Abbott by 0.2% in 2018, but voted for O'Rourke by 4.68% in this election.
Outside the Texas Triangle and Trans Pecos, the only other area O'Rourke won was heavily HispanicSouth Texas along the U.S. border with Mexico. His performance was worse than Valdez's and his own from 2018, which continued the trend of rural Hispanic voters away from the Democrats towards Republicans, but he did outperform Biden from 2020. Counties that voted for Biden by single digits likeDuval (2.61%),Starr (5%), andMaverick (9.45%); voted for O'Rourke 11.02%, 17.85%, and 17.68% respectively. Despite this improvement from the 2020 presidential race, Abbott flipped two heavily Hispanic counties,Zapata andCulberson (in the Trans Pecos).
Exit polls according to NBC News showed Abbott winning male (58%-41%) and female voters (51%-48%), whites (66%-33%), and other races (67%-31%), voters over 45 (60%-39%), college graduates (52%-47%) and non-college graduates (56%-43%), and voters who denied the results of the 2020 presidential election (94%-5%). O'Rourke won black voters (84%-15%), Latinos (57%-40%), Asians (52%-48%), voters between 18 and 44 (54%-44%), Independents (49%-47%) and moderates (60%-38%).[208][209][210]
Fox News Voter Analysis exit polls showed Abbott winning male (59%-39%) and female voters (51%-48%); whites (68%-30%) and other races and ethnicities (53%-42%); voters over 45 (61%-37%); college graduates (54%-44%), non-college graduates (56%-43%); white men (70%-28%); white women (67%-32%). O'Rourke won African Americans (81%-18%), Latinos (56%-42%); African American men (76%-24%); African American women (85%-13%) Latino men (55%-45%) and Latina women (61%-37%).[211]
Voter demographic data was collected byCNN. The voter survey is based onexit polls.[212] There were 4,327 total respondents.
| Demographic subgroup | Abbott | O'Rourke | % of total vote |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ideology | |||
| Liberals | 10 | 89 | 22 |
| Moderates | 38 | 60 | 36 |
| Conservatives | 91 | 9 | 42 |
| Party | |||
| Democrats | 3 | 97 | 30 |
| Republicans | 95 | 5 | 41 |
| Independents | 47 | 49 | 29 |
| Age | |||
| 18–24 years old | 31 | 67 | 9 |
| 25–29 years old | 39 | 61 | 6 |
| 30–39 years old | 47 | 50 | 15 |
| 40–49 years old | 53 | 45 | 16 |
| 50–64 years old | 61 | 38 | 27 |
| 65 and older | 62 | 37 | 27 |
| Gender | |||
| Men | 58 | 41 | 49 |
| Women | 51 | 48 | 51 |
| Marital status | |||
| Married | 63 | 36 | 63 |
| Unmarried | 45 | 54 | 37 |
| Gender by marital status | |||
| Married men | 64 | 35 | 33 |
| Married women | 61 | 38 | 29 |
| Unmarried men | 49 | 49 | 17 |
| Unmarried women | 42 | 58 | 21 |
| Race/ethnicity | |||
| White | 66 | 33 | 62 |
| Black | 15 | 84 | 12 |
| Latino | 40 | 57 | 21 |
| Asian | 48 | 52 | 3 |
| Other | 67 | 31 | 2 |
| Gender by race | |||
| White men | 69 | 30 | 30 |
| White women | 64 | 36 | 32 |
| Black men | 22 | 78 | 6 |
| Black women | 9 | 90 | 6 |
| Latino men | 45 | 53 | 10 |
| Latina women | 36 | 62 | 11 |
| Other racial/ethnic groups | 57 | 42 | 5 |
| Education | |||
| Never attendedcollege | 60 | 40 | 12 |
| Some college education | 53 | 45 | 28 |
| Associate degree | 57 | 41 | 15 |
| Bachelor's degree | 54 | 44 | 26 |
| Advanced degree | 49 | 50 | 18 |
| Education by race | |||
| White college graduates | 60 | 39 | 31 |
| White no college degree | 72 | 27 | 31 |
| Non-white college graduates | 34 | 65 | 14 |
| Non-white no college degree | 35 | 63 | 25 |
| Education by gender/race | |||
| White women with college degrees | 57 | 42 | 15 |
| White women without college degrees | 70 | 29 | 17 |
| White men with college degrees | 63 | 36 | 16 |
| White men without college degrees | 75 | 24 | 14 |
| Non-white | 35 | 64 | 39 |
| Issue regarded as most important | |||
| Crime | 58 | 36 | 11 |
| Inflation | 76 | 22 | 28 |
| Immigration | 88 | 12 | 15 |
| Gun policy | 32 | 67 | 12 |
| Abortion | 19 | 80 | 27 |
| Abortion should be | |||
| Legal | 23 | 75 | 54 |
| Illegal | 92 | 7 | 43 |
| First-time midterm election voter | |||
| Yes | 43 | 57 | 14 |
| No | 55 | 44 | 86 |
| 2020 presidential vote | |||
| Trump | 97 | 2 | 50 |
| Biden | 4 | 96 | 41 |
| Other | N/A | N/A | 3 |
| Did not vote | N/A | N/A | 5 |
| Biden legitimately won in 2020 | |||
| Yes | 25 | 74 | 54 |
| No | 94 | 5 | 42 |
| Area type | |||
| Urban | 49 | 50 | 42 |
| Suburban | 56 | 43 | 47 |
| Rural | 66 | 32 | 11 |
Partisan clients
He said he plans to run for a third term in 2022.
Much like the GOP primary for governor, the Democratic race offers a crowded field of candidates but only one who is a viable choice for the party to compete in November, and that is former congressman Beto O'Rourke.
Even if Republicans aren't seeing their map expanding into new territory like South Texas, they can still clearly count on rural voters to hold the line against waves of new and potentially liberal voters moving into Texas' major cities, said Landry, the West Texas college professor. As large as the cities are and how Democratic that they are, Texas Democrats still don't have a way to get past that red wall of rural West Texas, he said. Rural Texas still rules the day. I was seeing some very, very close numbers before a lot of the rural counties reported [election returns], and once they did, it just blew the door open for Abbott.
Official campaign websites
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