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New York's 19th congressional district | ||||||||||||||||||||
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| Turnout | 27.16%[1] | |||||||||||||||||||
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 Results by county Results by precinctRyan: 50–60% 60–70% 70-80% 80-90% >90% Molinaro: 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% 80–90% >90% Tie: 50% | ||||||||||||||||||||
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The2022 New York's 19th congressional district special election was a special election held on August 23, 2022.[2] The seat became vacant after incumbentDemocratic representativeAntonio Delgado resigned on May 25, 2022, to becomelieutenant governor of New York.[3][4] Democratic nomineePat Ryan won a slight victory overRepublican nomineeMarc Molinaro in what was seen as anupset due to Molinaro's lead in polls and fundraising in the weeks leading to the election.[5]
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Statewide officials
State legislators
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Organizations
U.S. representatives
Organizations
| Source | Ranking | As of |
|---|---|---|
| The Cook Political Report[17] | Tossup | May 5, 2022 |
| Inside Elections[18] | Tossup | July 21, 2022 |
| Sabato's Crystal Ball[19] | Lean R(flip) | May 11, 2022 |
Graphical summary
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| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size[a] | Margin of error | Pat Ryan (D) | Marc Molinaro (R) | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Data for Progress (D)[20] | August 17–22, 2022 | 1,222 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 45% | 53% | 2% |
| DCCC Targeting and Analytics Department (D)[21][A] | August 6–8, 2022 | 480 (LV) | ± 4.5% | 43% | 46% | 11% |
| Triton Polling & Research (R)[22][B] | July 26–28, 2022 | 407 (LV) | ± 4.9% | 40% | 50% | 11% |
| Public Policy Polling (D)[23][C] | June 29–30, 2022 | 581 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 40% | 43% | 16% |
| Triton Polling & Research (R)[24][B] | June 16–20, 2022 | 505 (LV) | ± 4.4% | 38% | 52% | 10% |
Generic Democrat vs. generic Republican
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size[a] | Margin of error | Generic Democrat | Generic Republican | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DCCC Targeting and Analytics Department (D)[21][A] | August 6–8, 2022 | 480 (LV) | ± 4.5% | 44% | 45% | 12% |
| Campaign finance reports as of August 3, 2022 | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Candidate | Amount raised | Amount spent | Cash on hand |
| Marc Molinaro (R) | $1,593,762 | $993,626 | $600,136 |
| Pat Ryan (D) | $1,582,369 | $1,265,848 | $316,522 |
| Source:OpenSecrets[25] | |||
Pat Ryan won the election with 66,088 votes or 51.2% of the vote compared to Marc Molinaro's 48.8% of the vote or 63,010 votes. This defied most polls, which had Molinaro winning by a somewhat comfortable margin as well as Sabato's Crystal Ball rating of Lean R. His victory can be attributed to his large margins inUlster County. Ryan overperformedJoe Biden's2020 margin in this district by about 0.8%. The result was considered an upset by some, as Molinaro had led by as much as 14 percentage points in public polling of the race, and Molinaro outspent Ryan on television advertising.[26][27] Ryan's victory led some forecasters to change some of their predictions for the2022 House election.[28]
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | ±% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Democratic | Pat Ryan | 58,636 | 45.39% | –2.61 | |
| Working Families | Pat Ryan | 7,452 | 5.77% | –0.78 | |
| Total | Pat Ryan | 66,088 | 51.15% | –3.64 | |
| Republican | Marc Molinaro | 52,514 | 40.65% | –2.55 | |
| Conservative | Marc Molinaro | 10,496 | 8.12% | N/A | |
| Total | Marc Molinaro | 63,010 | 48.77% | +5.57 | |
| Write-in | 96 | 0.07% | N/A | ||
| Total votes | 129,194 | 100.00% | |||
| Turnout | 129,328 | 27.16% | |||
| Registered electors | 476,134 | ||||
| Democratichold | |||||
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Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican
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Partisan clients
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