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2022 New Mexico gubernatorial election

From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

For related races, see2022 United States gubernatorial elections.

2022 New Mexico gubernatorial election
← 2018November 8, 2022 (2022-11-08)2026 →
Turnout52.38%Decrease
 
NomineeMichelle Lujan GrishamMark Ronchetti
PartyDemocraticRepublican
Running mateHowie MoralesAnt Thornton
Popular vote370,168324,701
Percentage51.97%45.59%
County results
Congressional district results
Precinct results
Lujan Grisham:     40–50%     50–60%     60–70%     70–80%     80–90%     >90%
Ronchetti:     40–50%     50–60%     60–70%     70–80%     80–90%     >90%
Tie:     40–50%     No data
Governor before election

Michelle Lujan Grisham
Democratic

ElectedGovernor

Michelle Lujan Grisham
Democratic

Elections in New Mexico

The2022 New Mexico gubernatorial election took place on November 8, 2022, to elect thegovernor andlieutenant governor ofNew Mexico. The election coincided with various otherfederal andstate elections. Primary elections were held on June 7.[1]

IncumbentDemocratic GovernorMichelle Lujan Grisham won a second term by a margin of 6.38%. She was first elected in2018 with 57.2% of the vote. Her opponent wasRepublican Mark Ronchetti, who was also his party's nominee inNew Mexico's 2020 U.S. Senate election.

Despite losing, Ronchetti managed to carrya congressional district that elected DemocratGabe Vasquez in theconcurrent U.S. House elections. This was the first gubernatorial election in New Mexico since1986 in which the winner was from the same party as theincumbent president, and the first time since1978 that it was a Democrat.

Democratic primary

[edit]

Governor

[edit]

Candidates

[edit]
Nominated
[edit]

Endorsements

[edit]
Michelle Lujan Grisham

Organizations

Results

[edit]
Gubernatorial Democratic primary results[4]
PartyCandidateVotes%
DemocraticMichelle Lujan Grisham (incumbent)125,238100.0%
Total votes125,238100.0%

Lieutenant governor

[edit]

Candidates

[edit]
Nominated
[edit]

Results

[edit]
Lieutenant gubernatorial Democratic primary results[4]
PartyCandidateVotes%
DemocraticHowie Morales (incumbent)117,293100.0%
Total votes117,293100.0%

Republican primary

[edit]

Governor

[edit]

Candidates

[edit]
Nominated
[edit]
  • Mark Ronchetti, formerKRQE meteorologist and nominee for the U.S. Senate in2020[5]
Eliminated in primary
[edit]
Withdrew
[edit]
Declined
[edit]

Polling

[edit]

Aggregate polls

Source of poll
aggregation		Dates
administered		Dates
updated		Jay
Block		Rebecca
Dow		Mark
Ronchetti		Greg
Zanetti		Other
[a]		Margin
Real Clear Politics[15]April 29 – May 19, 2022May 23, 202210.0%13.0%44.5%9.5%23.0%Ronchetti +31.5
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size[b]		Margin
of error		Jay
Block		Rebecca
Dow		Mark
Ronchetti		Greg
Zanetti		OtherUndecided
Research & Polling Inc.[16]May 15–19, 2022560 (LV)± 4.1%8%17%45%9%1%[c]21%
SurveyUSA[17]April 29 – May 7, 2022505 (LV)± 6.4%12%9%44%10%2%[d]23%
Public Opinion Strategies (R)[18][A]January 31 – February 1, 2022400 (LV)± 4.9%2%9%60%7%3%19%

Results

[edit]
Results by county:
  Ronchetti
  •   30–40%
  •   40–50%
  •   50–60%
  •   60–70%
  •   70–80%
  Dow
  •   30–40%
  •   40–50%
  •   50–60%
Gubernatorial Republican primary results[4]
PartyCandidateVotes%
RepublicanMark Ronchetti68,65858.41%
RepublicanRebecca Dow18,18515.47%
RepublicanGregory Zanetti16,39413.95%
RepublicanJay Block12,46910.61%
RepublicanEthel Maharg1,8451.57%
Total votes117,551100.0%

Lieutenant governor

[edit]

Candidates

[edit]
Nominated
[edit]
Eliminated in primary
[edit]
  • Peggy Muller-Aragon, member of the Albuquerque Public Schools Board of Education[4]
Eliminated at convention
[edit]

Results

[edit]
Results by county:
  •   50–60%
  •   60–70%
  •   70–80%
  Muller-Aragon
  •   50–60%
  •   60–70%
Lieutenant gubernatorial Republican primary results[4]
PartyCandidateVotes%
RepublicanAnt Thornton64,38659.71%
RepublicanPeggy Muller-Aragon43,43840.29%
Total votes107,824100.0%

Libertarian primary

[edit]

Governor

[edit]

Candidates

[edit]
Nominated
[edit]
Eliminated in primary
[edit]
Withdrew
[edit]

Endorsements

Ginger G. Grider
Individuals

Results

[edit]
Gubernatorial Libertarian primary results[4]
PartyCandidateVotes%
LibertarianKaren Bedonie98086.12%
LibertarianGinger G. Grider (write-in)15813.88%
Total votes1,138100.0%

Lieutenant governor

[edit]

Travis Sanchez won the Libertarian primary unopposed, but withdrew to become theLibertarian nominee forNew Mexico State Auditor.[21] Sanchez was replaced by Efren Gallardo Jr.

Candidates

[edit]
Declared
[edit]
  • Efren Gallardo Jr.[22]
Withdrew
[edit]

Results

[edit]
Lieutenant gubernatorial Libertarian primary results[4]
PartyCandidateVotes%
LibertarianTravis Sanchez1,175100.0%
Total votes1,175100.0%

General election

[edit]

Predictions

[edit]
SourceRankingAs of
The Cook Political Report[23]Lean DJune 8, 2022
Inside Elections[24]Tilt DNovember 3, 2022
Sabato's Crystal Ball[25]Lean DJanuary 26, 2022
Politico[26]Lean DApril 1, 2022
RCP[27]TossupJune 20, 2022
Fox News[28]TossupAugust 22, 2022
538[29]Likely DJuly 31, 2022
Elections Daily[30]Lean DNovember 7, 2022

Endorsements

[edit]
Michelle Lujan Grisham (D)

U.S. presidents

Federal officials

State officials

Local officials[35]

Labor unions

Organizations

Mark Ronchetti (R)

U.S. presidents

Federal officials

State officials

Sheriffs

Organizations

Polling

[edit]

Aggregate polls

Source of poll
aggregation		Dates
administered		Dates
updated		Michelle
Lujan Grisham (D)		Mark
Ronchetti (R)		Karen
Bedonie (L)		Other
[e]		Margin
Real Clear Politics[56]October 6–21, 2022October 21, 202247.0%43.5%–9.5%Lujan Grisham +3.5
FiveThirtyEight[57]June 14 – October 24, 2022October 24, 202248.7%41.1%4.9%5.3%Lujan Grisham +7.6
Average47.9%42.3%–7.4%Lujan Grisham +5.6

Graphical summary

This graph was using thelegacy Graph extension, which is no longer supported. It needs to be converted to thenew Chart extension.
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size[b]		Margin
of error		Michelle
Lujan Grisham (D)		Mark
Ronchetti (R)		Karen
Bedonie (L)		OtherUndecided
Emerson College[58]October 25–28, 20221,000 (LV)± 3.0%49%46%2%<1%[f]3%
50%48%2%<1%[g]–
Research & Polling Inc.[59][h]October 20–27, 20221,254 (LV)± 2.8%50%42%3%–5%
SurveyUSA[60]October 21–26, 2022650 (LV)± 4.9%46%39%5%–9%
The Trafalgar Group (R)[61]October 19–21, 20221,077 (LV)± 2.9%46%47%4%–4%
Public Policy Polling (D)[62]October 6–7, 2022806 (V)± 3.5%48%40%7%–6%
SurveyUSA[63]October 1–6, 2022570 (LV)± 5.8%53%37%3%–7%
Cygnal (R)[64][B]September 27–29, 2022400 (LV)± 4.9%46%44%5%–5%
SurveyUSA[65]September 8–12, 2022558 (LV)± 5.7%48%36%5%–11%
Emerson College[66]September 8–11, 20221,000 (LV)± 3.0%48%43%–3%[i]5%
Research & Polling Inc.[67][h]August 19–25, 2022518 (LV)± 4.3%47%40%5%–8%
GQR Research (D)[68][C]June 11–17, 2022500 (LV)± 4.4%48%44%5%–3%
Public Policy Polling (D)[69]June 13–14, 2022642 (V)± 3.9%45%42%9%–5%
Public Opinion Strategies (R)[70][A]June 11–14, 2022600 (LV)± 4.0%45%46%––9%
SurveyUSA[71]April 29 – May 7, 20221,389 (LV)± 3.6%47%43%––11%
Cygnal (R)[72][D]January 3–4, 2022531 (LV)± 4.2%43%42%––16%
Hypothetical polling

Michelle Lujan Grisham vs. Jay Block

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size[b]		Margin
of error		Michelle
Lujan Grisham (D)		Jay
Block (R)		Undecided
SurveyUSA[71]April 29 – May 7, 20221,389 (LV)± 3.6%47%37%16%

Michelle Lujan Grisham vs. Rebecca Dow

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size[b]		Margin
of error		Michelle
Lujan Grisham (D)		Rebecca
Dow (R)		Undecided
SurveyUSA[71]April 29 – May 7, 20221,389 (LV)± 3.6%48%36%16%
Cygnal (R)[72][D]January 3–4, 2022531 (LV)± 4.2%43%36%20%

Michelle Lujan Grisham vs. Ethel Maharg

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size[b]		Margin
of error		Michelle
Lujan Grisham (D)		Ethel
Maharg (R)		Undecided
SurveyUSA[71]April 29 – May 7, 20221,389 (LV)± 3.6%48%32%19%

Michelle Lujan Grisham vs. Gregory Zanetti

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size[b]		Margin
of error		Michelle
Lujan Grisham (D)		Gregory
Zanetti (R)		Undecided
SurveyUSA[71]April 29 – May 7, 20221,389 (LV)± 3.6%48%36%16%
Cygnal (R)[72][D]January 3–4, 2022531 (LV)± 4.2%43%38%21%

Michelle Lujan Grisham vs. generic Republican

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size[b]		Margin
of error		Michelle
Lujan Grisham (D)		Generic
Republican		Undecided
Cygnal (R)[73]July 6–8, 2021600 (LV)± 4.0%45%47%7%

Debates

[edit]
2022 New Mexico gubernatorial general election debates
No.DateHostModeratorLinkDemocraticRepublicanLibertarian
Key:

 P Participant  A Absent  N Non-invitee  I Invitee W  Withdrawn

Michelle Lujan GrishamMark RonchettiKaren Bedonie
1Oct. 13, 2022KOAT-TVDoug Fernandez[74]PPN

Results

[edit]
Swing by county
Legend
  •   Democratic—+5-10%
  •   Republican—+<5%
  •   Republican—+5-10%
  •   Republican—+10-15%
  •   Republican—+15-20%
  •   Republican—+20-25%
2022 New Mexico gubernatorial election[75]
PartyCandidateVotes%±%
Democratic
370,16851.97%−5.23%
Republican
  • Mark Ronchetti
  • Ant Thornton
324,70145.59%+2.79%
Libertarian
  • Karen Bedonie
  • Efren Gallardo, Jr.
17,3872.44%N/A
Total votes712,256100.0%
Turnout714,79752.38%
Registered electors1,364,559
Democratichold

By county

[edit]
[76]Michelle Lujan Grisham
Democrat		Mark V Ronchetti
Republican		Karen E. Bedonie
Libertarian		Total
CountyVotes%Votes%Votes%Votes
Bernalillo141,17757.55%99,63940.62%44841.83%245,300
Catron47123.29%1,49373.84%582.87%2,022
Chaves4,06324.89%11,88472.79%3792.32%16,326
Cibola3,41849.75%3,23047.02%2223.23%6,870
Colfax2,05341.82%2,71955.39%1372.79%4,909
Curry2,51624.55%7,09269.20%6406.25%10,248
De Baca16722.03%56674.67%253.30%758
Doña Ana32,14755.69%23,21340.21%23644.10%57,724
Eddy3,37620.20%12,99677.75%3442.06%16,716
Grant6,18552.88%5,21744.60%2942.51%11,696
Guadalupe91552.56%78445.03%422.41%1,741
Harding12930.79%28066.83%102.39%419
Hidalgo64539.72%91456.28%654.00%1,624
Lea2,10415.02%11,54282.40%3622.58%14,008
Lincoln2,33427.94%5,77869.16%2432.91%8,355
Los Alamos6,19261.02%3,75136.96%2052.02%10,148
Luna2,44541.52%3,25055.19%1943.29%5,889
McKinley12,91066.27%5,79929.77%7723.96%19,481
Mora1,58464.47%83233.86%411.67%2,457
Otero5,85233.17%11,18263.38%6083.45%17,642
Quay80326.53%2,10469.51%1203.96%3,027
Rio Arriba8,03762.01%4,72936.49%1951.50%12,961
Roosevelt1,08723.32%3,17768.15%3988.54%4,662
San Juan12,84932.08%25,57463.85%16314.07%40,054
San Miguel6,53168.98%2,78529.41%1521.61%9,468
Sandoval30,78950.28%29,33747.91%11091.81%61,235
Santa Fe52,44775.35%16,28723.40%8681.25%69,602
Sierra1,78036.19%3,00161.01%1382.81%4,919
Socorro2,95048.05%2,98848.66%2023.29%6,140
Taos10,18876.33%2,96422.21%1961.47%13,348
Torrance1,58828.64%3,71266.96%2444.40%5,544
Union32821.87%1,10173.40%714.73%1,500
Valencia10,10839.70%14,78158.05%5742.25%25,463

Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican

By congressional district

[edit]

Lujan Grisham won two of three congressional districts, with Ronchetti winning the remaining one, which elected a Democrat.[77]

DistrictLujan GrishamRonchettiRepresentative
1st53%45%Melanie Stansbury
2nd48%49%Yvette Herrell (117th Congress)
Gabe Vasquez (118th Congress)
3rd54%44%Teresa Leger Fernandez

Notes

[edit]
  1. ^Calculated by taking the difference of 100% and all other candidates combined.
  2. ^abcdefgKey:
    A – all adults
    RV – registered voters
    LV – likely voters
    V – unclear
  3. ^Maharg with 1%
  4. ^Maharg with 2%
  5. ^Calculated by taking the difference of 100% and all other candidates combined.
  6. ^"Someone else" with <1%
  7. ^"Someone else" with <1%
  8. ^abPoll conducted for theAlbuquerque Journal.
  9. ^"Someone else" with 3%

Partisan clients

  1. ^abThe poll was sponsored by Ronchetti's campaign
  2. ^Poll sponsored by Jeremy Gay, the Republican nominee forNew Mexico Attorney General.
  3. ^This poll was sponsored by EDF Action
  4. ^abcThis poll was sponsored by Zanetti's campaign

References

[edit]
  1. ^"Upcoming Elections".New Mexico Secretary of State. RetrievedMay 3, 2022.
  2. ^ab"Gov. Michelle Lujan Grisham will run for re-election".KOAT. June 3, 2021.
  3. ^"Candidates for Governor".emilyslist.org.
  4. ^abcdefghijklmn"2022 Primary Election Candidate Summary Results Report"(PDF).New Mexico Secretary of State.
  5. ^Boyd, Dan (October 27, 2021)."Ronchetti announces gubernatorial campaign".Albuquerque Journal.Archived from the original on October 27, 2021. RetrievedOctober 27, 2021.
  6. ^McKay, Dan (April 17, 2021)."Republican Commissioner Jay Block enters governor's race, seeks GOP nomination".Albuquerque Journal.Archived from the original on April 22, 2021. RetrievedJuly 4, 2021.
  7. ^Ramirez, Chris (July 8, 2021)."Republican Jay Block wants to be New Mexico's next governor".KOB-TV. Archived from the original on July 9, 2021. RetrievedAugust 29, 2021.{{cite news}}: CS1 maint: bot: original URL status unknown (link)
  8. ^"Republican lawmaker enters race for New Mexico governor".KOB-TV.Associated Press. July 7, 2021.Archived from the original on July 9, 2021. RetrievedAugust 29, 2021.
  9. ^Block, John (August 15, 2021)."Seventh Republican, pro-life leader Ethel Maharg, running for governor".Piñon Post.Archived from the original on August 15, 2021. RetrievedDecember 8, 2021.
  10. ^"Military veteran runs for New Mexico governor as Republican".KRQE.Associated Press. June 14, 2021. RetrievedJune 25, 2021.
  11. ^Boetel, Ryan (August 1, 2021)."Sanchez joins GOP field for governor".Albuquerque Journal.Archived from the original on August 11, 2021. RetrievedAugust 29, 2021.
  12. ^McKay, Dan (February 1, 2022)."5 Republicans seek nomination to challenge Lujan Grisham".Albuquerque Journal. RetrievedFebruary 1, 2022.
  13. ^ab"Once-GOP gubernatorial candidate switches to Libertarian Party".Pinon Post. December 5, 2021. RetrievedDecember 9, 2021.
  14. ^Milan Simonich (April 15, 2021)."Stumbling GOP could have been a contender".The Santa Fe New Mexican.
  15. ^Real Clear Politics
  16. ^Research & Polling Inc.
  17. ^SurveyUSAArchived May 10, 2022, at theWayback Machine
  18. ^Public Opinion Strategies (R)Archived February 3, 2022, at theWayback Machine
  19. ^Staff Reports."Former Doña Ana County Commissioner Isabella Solis announces run for lieutenant governor".Las Cruces Sun-News. RetrievedFebruary 8, 2022.
  20. ^"There is a contested primary for the Libertarian nomination for Governor of New Mexico".Facebook.
  21. ^ab"2022 Candidates for Office".Libertarian Party of New Mexico.
  22. ^Coker, Jonny (September 29, 2022)."Libertarian candidate Efren Gallardo, Jr. runs for Lieutenant Governor".KRWG-TV.
  23. ^"2022 Governor Race Ratings".The Cook Political Report. RetrievedFebruary 4, 2021.
  24. ^"Gubernatorial Ratings".Inside Elections. RetrievedFebruary 19, 2021.
  25. ^"2022 Gubernatorial race ratings".Sabato's Crystal Ball. RetrievedMarch 11, 2021.
  26. ^"New Mexico Governor Race 2022".Politico. April 1, 2022.
  27. ^"2022 Governor Races".RCP. January 10, 2022. RetrievedJanuary 10, 2022.
  28. ^"2022 Election Forecast".Fox News. August 22, 2022. RetrievedAugust 22, 2022.
  29. ^"2022 Election Forecast".FiveThirtyEight. June 30, 2022. Archived fromthe original on June 30, 2022. RetrievedJune 30, 2022.
  30. ^Szymanski, Joe (November 7, 2022)."Elections Daily Unveils Final 2022 Midterm Ratings".Elections Daily. RetrievedNovember 28, 2022.
  31. ^"Biden to travel to New Mexico days before midterm election".Associated Press. October 27, 2022.
  32. ^"Obama video endorses incumbent New Mexico governor". October 27, 2022.
  33. ^"Harris to campaign for Lujan Grisham, abortion rights". October 20, 2022.
  34. ^"Gavin Newsom has quietly constructed one of the biggest digital forces in politics".Politico. October 28, 2022.
  35. ^"Gov. Michelle Lujan Grisham Announces Endorsements from New Mexico Mayors".
  36. ^abcdefghi"Michelle Lujan Grisham's Ratings and Endorsements".justfacts.votesmart.org. RetrievedOctober 21, 2022.
  37. ^"New Mexico - COMPAC Endorsements".UMWA. Archived fromthe original on November 1, 2022. RetrievedNovember 1, 2022.
  38. ^"Michelle Lujan Grisham — Donate via ActBlue".secure.actblue.com. RetrievedOctober 21, 2022.
  39. ^"Michelle Lujan Grisham - DGA".democraticgovernors.org. RetrievedOctober 21, 2022.
  40. ^"Giffords Endorses Governor Michelle Lujan Grisham for Reelection".www.giffords.org.Giffords. March 30, 2022.
  41. ^"Human Rights Campaign Endorses New Mexico Governor Michelle Lujan Grisham for Reelection". October 26, 2022.
  42. ^"NARAL Pro-Choice America Endorses New Mexico Governor Michelle Lujan Grisham for Reelection". August 3, 2022.
  43. ^"Trump endorses Mark Ronchetti for New Mexico governor". October 31, 2022.
  44. ^"Support Mark Ronchetti now!".
  45. ^"Press under tight control as Ronchetti rallies in Carlsbad with DeSantis and Rep. Herrell".www.lcsun-news.com. August 15, 2022. RetrievedAugust 22, 2022.
  46. ^"Pence campaigns for Ronchetti in Roswell". October 6, 2022.
  47. ^"DeSantis to Hit Trail to Boost Trump-Backed Midterm Candidates".Bloomberg.com. August 8, 2022.
  48. ^"Ronchetti campaigns with AZ governor - Albuquerque Journal".
  49. ^"Trump Weighs in Regarding New Mexico Race for Governor".
  50. ^"Youngkin traveling to five more states amid talk of possible 2024 bid". August 23, 2022.
  51. ^abcdBoyd, Dan (August 10, 2022)."Sheriffs back Ronchetti in new TV ad".Albuquerque Journal. RetrievedAugust 18, 2022.
  52. ^"Editorial: Ronchetti for governor - Albuquerque Journal". October 23, 2022.
  53. ^"CatholicVote's 2022 Key Race Endorsements".CatholicVote.org. October 4, 2022. RetrievedOctober 21, 2022.
  54. ^"New Mexico Grades & Endorsements".nrapvf.org. NRA-PVF. Archived from the original on November 8, 2022. RetrievedFebruary 15, 2023.
  55. ^"Vote Freedom First. Vote Mark Ronchetti For New Mexico Governor!".nrapvf.org.Archived from the original on September 22, 2022. RetrievedOctober 21, 2022.
  56. ^Real Clear Politics
  57. ^FiveThirtyEight
  58. ^Emerson College
  59. ^Research & Polling Inc.
  60. ^SurveyUSA
  61. ^The Trafalgar Group (R)
  62. ^Public Policy Polling (D)
  63. ^SurveyUSA
  64. ^Cygnal (R)
  65. ^SurveyUSA
  66. ^Emerson College
  67. ^Research & Polling Inc.
  68. ^GQR Research (D)
  69. ^Public Policy Polling (D)
  70. ^Public Opinion Strategies (R)
  71. ^abcdeSurveyUSA
  72. ^abcCygnal (R)
  73. ^Cygnal (R)
  74. ^Youtube
  75. ^"2022 General New Mexico - Official Results".New Mexico Secretary of State.
  76. ^"New Mexico Secretary of State".electionresults.sos.state.nm.us.
  77. ^https://davesredistricting.org/maps#viewmap::ec1c76cd-f59f-445b-8f24-fbffb0e8bdf5

External links

[edit]

Official campaign websites

U.S.
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