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2022 Maine gubernatorial election

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For related races, see2022 United States gubernatorial elections.

2022 Maine gubernatorial election
← 2018November 8, 20222026 →
Registered1,145,052[1][2] (Increase 8.14pp)
Turnout59.47%[3] (Decrease 1.77pp)
 
NomineeJanet MillsPaul LePage
PartyDemocraticRepublican
Popular vote376,934287,304
Percentage55.69%42.45%
County results
Municipality results
Congressional district results
Mills:     40–50%     50–60%     60–70%     70–80%     80–90%     >90%
LePage:     40–50%     50–60%     60–70%     70–80%     80–90%     >90%
Tie:     50%
Governor before election

Janet Mills
Democratic

Elected Governor

Janet Mills
Democratic

Elections in Maine
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The2022 Maine gubernatorial election took place on November 8, 2022, to elect thegovernor of Maine. IncumbentDemocratic governorJanet Mills won re-election to a second term, defeatingRepublican nominee and former governorPaul LePage. Neither candidate faced anyprimary opposition.[4][5] An independent candidate, Sam Hunkler, received 2% of the vote, the lowest total for a third party or independent gubernatorial candidate in the state since1982.

This was the first gubernatorial election in Maine since1990 in which the winner was from the same party as theincumbent president, and the first time since1978 that it was a Democrat. With nearly 377,000 votes, Mills won more votes than any other gubernatorial candidate in Maine history, breaking her own record setfour years earlier. Her 13-point margin of victory was the largest for a statewide Democratic candidate sinceGeorge J. Mitchell won over 80% of the vote in the1988 United States Senate election.

Mills's victory was also the largest for any gubernatorial candidate since incumbentAngus King won 59% of the vote in1998.

Democratic primary

[edit]

Candidates

[edit]

Nominee

[edit]

Failed to qualify for ballot access

[edit]
  • John Glowa, wildlife activist[7]

Declined

[edit]

Endorsements

[edit]
Janet Mills

State legislators

Organizations

Results

[edit]
Democratic primary results[11]
PartyCandidateVotes%
DemocraticJanet Mills (incumbent)69,42293.42%
DemocraticBlank ballots4,8896.58%
Total votes74,311100.0%

Republican primary

[edit]

Candidates

[edit]

Nominee

[edit]

Failed to qualify for ballot access

[edit]

Filed paperwork

[edit]

Endorsements

[edit]
Paul LePage

U.S. senators

U.S. Governors

Organizations

  • Maine Lodge of the Fraternal Order of Police[17]

Results

[edit]
Republican primary results[11]
PartyCandidateVotes%
RepublicanPaul LePage59,71390.91%
RepublicanBlank ballots5,9719.09%
Total votes65,684100.0%

Independents

[edit]

Candidates

[edit]

Declared

[edit]

Declined

[edit]

General election

[edit]

With no other candidates challenging Mills or LePage in their respective primaries, the campaign started out with most prediction models giving Mills a slight edge over LePage. However, Maine had not elected a governor from the same party as the President since1990, and some Democrats were afraid that Democratic presidentJoe Biden's low approval ratings would hurt Mills.[21]

Access toabortion became a crucial issue following theSupreme Court's ruling inDobbs v. Jackson Women's Health Organization, which overturnedRoe v. Wade and eliminated the constitutional right to abortion, effectively returning the issue to the states. Following the leak of the draft opinion, Mills released a statement saying "I do not consider the rights of women to be dispensable. And I pledge that as long as I am governor, I will fight with everything I have to protect reproductive rights and to preserve access to reproductive health care in the face of every and any threat to it – whether from politicians inAugusta or Supreme Court Justices in Washington."[22]

After the release of the draft opinion, LePage stated he supported some abortion restrictions, but pledged to preserve access to abortion in cases of rape, incest and life of the mother.[22] However, this was seen as a reversal over his previous statements, including one in 2016 where he said that "we should not have abortion,"[23] and a 2018 statement in support of overturningRoe v. Wade.[24] LePage would continue to struggle with questions on abortion, and a stumble in a debate with Mills on the topic led to national headlines.[25][24]

Over the course of the campaign, Mills developed a fundraising advantage over LePage,[26] while outside groups unaffiliated with either campaign broke records for spending, mostly on negative ads. Ads supporting Mills's candidacy or opposing LePage's candidacy accounted for over $9 million in spending, while ads supporting LePage or opposing Mills accounted for over $7 million.[27]

Polls released after the primaries showed Mills having a moderate-to-large lead over LePage, with the closest poll showing her ahead by six points.

Mills was declared the winner by the Associated Press shortly before midnight on November 8. LePage did not immediately concede the race,[28] but did concede on November 9 with a written statement.[29] In his election night remarks, LePage concluded that he "missed the message" on abortion.[30] Some observers saw the results as symbolic of the decline of the once-dominantMaine Republican Party, and Maine's movement towards becoming a solidblue state.[31]

In the election, Mills broke her own record set four years earlier for most votes received by a Maine gubernatorial candidate.

Predictions

[edit]
SourceRankingAs of
The Cook Political Report[32]Lean DMarch 4, 2022
Inside Elections[33]Lean DJuly 22, 2022
Sabato's Crystal Ball[34]Lean DAugust 18, 2022
Politico[35]Lean DAugust 12, 2022
RCP[36]TossupJanuary 10, 2022
Fox News[37]Lean DOctober 11, 2022
538[38]Likely DSeptember 18, 2022
Elections Daily[39]Lean DNovember 7, 2022

Post-primary endorsements

[edit]
Janet Mills (D)

U.S. senators

Organizations

Newspapers

Paul LePage (R)

U.S. Governors

Organizations

  • Maine Association of Builders and Contractors[57]

Polling

[edit]

Aggregate polls

Source of poll
aggregation		Dates
administered		Dates
updated		Janet
Mills (D)		Paul
LePage (R)		Other
[a]		Margin
FiveThirtyEight[58]May 4 – November 6, 2022November 6, 202250%43%7%Mills +7

Graphical summary

This graph was using thelegacy Graph extension, which is no longer supported. It needs to be converted to thenew Chart extension.
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size[b]		Margin
of error		Janet
Mills (D)		Paul
LePage (R)		OtherUndecided
University of New Hampshire[59]November 2–6, 2022922 (LV)± 3.2%52%44%2%[c]2%
SurveyUSA[60]October 28 – November 2, 20221,116 (LV)± 3.7%49%43%4%[d]5%
Ascend Action[61]October 26–29, 2022471 (LV)± 4.5%55%40%1%[e]4%
Pan Atlantic Research[62]October 7–15, 2022400 (LV)± 3.5%49%39%2%[f]10%
Emerson College[63]September 19–20, 20221,164 (LV)± 2.8%53%41%2%[g]4%
University of New Hampshire[64]September 15–19, 2022694 (LV)± 3.7%53%39%2%[h]5%
Maine People's Resource Center[65]September 1–9, 2022814 (RV)± 3.4%49%38%3%10%
Fabrizio Ward (R)/Impact Research (D)[66]May 10–13, 2022500 (LV)± 4.4%51%46%–3%
Pan Atlantic Research[67]April 21 – May 5, 2022824 (LV)± 3.4%46%42%7%4%
Digital Research Inc.[68]March 14 – April 7, 2022622 (RV)± 3.9%42%39%6%[i]13%
SurveyUSA (D)[69][A]August 24–31, 20211,242 (RV)± 3.5%46%41%–13%
SurveyUSA[70][B]May 13–19, 2021514 (RV)± 5.3%45%38%3%[j]12%

Debates

[edit]
2022 Maine gubernatorial debates
No.DateOrganizerModeratorLocationLinkDemocraticRepublicanIndependent
 P Participant   A Absent   N Non-invitee   I Invitee

 W  Withdrawn

Janet MillsPaul LePageSam Hunkler
1[71]October 4, 2022Maine Public,Portland Press Herald,Sun JournalJennifer RooksLewistonC-SPANPPP
2[72]October 6, 2022Portland Regional Chamber of CommerceQuincy HentzelPortlandYouTubePPN
3[73]October 24, 2022Bangor Daily News,WGME-TVGregg LagerquistPortlandYouTubePPN
4[74]October 27, 2022Maine State Chamber of Commerce,News Center MainePat CallaghanPortlandYouTubePPN

Results

[edit]
2022 Maine gubernatorial election[75]
PartyCandidateVotes%±%
DemocraticJanet Mills (incumbent)376,93455.69%+4.80%
RepublicanPaul LePage287,30442.45%−0.73%
IndependentSam Hunkler12,5811.86%N/A
Total votes676,819100.0%N/A
Turnout%
Registered electors
Democratichold

By county

[edit]
Margin swing by county
Legend
  •   Republican — +7.5−10%
  •   Republican — +5−7.5%
  •   Republican — +2.5−5%
  •   Republican — +0−2.5%
  •   Democratic — +0−2.5%
  •   Democratic — +2.5−5%
  •   Democratic — +7.5-10%
  •   Democratic — +10−12.5%
  •   Democratic — +12.5−15%
Janet Mills
(Democratic)		Paul LePage
(Republican)		Sam Hunkler
(Independent)		Total
CountyVotes%Votes%Votes%Votes
Androscoggin22,91548.5%23,22049.1%8841.9%47,281
Aroostook11,58740.2%16,53057.3%5151.8%28,844
Cumberland112,18868.8%47,20129.0%2,4621.5%162,969
Franklin7,40649.4%7,17947.9%3432.3%15,001
Hancock17,44656.7%12,52740.7%5661.8%30,749
Kennebec30,83850.8%28,36846.7%1,1401.9%60,685
Knox13,44160.0%8,43037.6%3851.7%22,397
Lincoln11,85356.3%8,74441.5%3491.6%21,051
Oxford12,87546.2%14,22951.0%6312.3%27,897
Penobscot31,84446.2%35,49651.5%1,3031.9%68,983
Piscataquis3,09837.5%4,96060.0%1581.9%8,266
Sagadahoc12,41459.3%8,04938.4%3791.8%20,948
Somerset9,08339.6%13,23357.7%5002.2%22,945
Waldo11,50854.4%9,09943.0%4001.9%21,146
Washington6,04640.6%8,16054.8%5533.7%14,892
York60,77257.9%41,66239.7%1,9941.9%105,010

By congressional district

[edit]

Mills won 1 of 2 congressional districts with LePage winning the remaining one, which elected a Democrat.[76]

DistrictMillsLePageRepresentative
1st63%36%Chellie Pingree
2nd48%50%Jared Golden

See also

[edit]

Notes

[edit]
  1. ^Calculated by taking the difference of 100% and all other candidates combined.
  2. ^Key:
    A – all adults
    RV – registered voters
    LV – likely voters
    V – unclear
  3. ^Hunkler (I) with 2%
  4. ^Hunkler (I) with 4%
  5. ^Hunkler (I) with 1%
  6. ^Hunkler (I) with 2%
  7. ^Hunkler (I) and "someone else" with 1%
  8. ^Hunkler (I) and "Other" with 1%
  9. ^"Independent candidate" with 6%
  10. ^"Other" with 2%; Michael Barden (G) with 1%

Partisan clients

  1. ^Poll sponsored by Swing Hard Turn Left
  2. ^Poll sponsored by Our Power Maine

References

[edit]
  1. ^"Statewide Registered and Enrolled Data File (Active Status)"(PDF).Maine Bureau of Corporations, Elections & Commissions. RetrievedDecember 12, 2023.
  2. ^"Statewide Registered and Enrolled Data File (Inactive Status)"(PDF).Maine Bureau of Corporations, Elections & Commissions. RetrievedDecember 12, 2023.
  3. ^"Secretary Bellows Announces Official Tabulation of 2022 General Election".Maine Department of the Secretary of State. RetrievedDecember 11, 2023.
  4. ^"Republican Paul LePage looks ahead to Main's November governor race against Gov. Janet Mills".PBS NewsHour. June 14, 2022. RetrievedJune 15, 2022.
  5. ^Hirschkorn, Phil (March 16, 2022)."It's official: Janet Mills versus Paul LePage in Maine gubernatorial race this November".WMTW.
  6. ^"Gov. Janet Mills officially launches reelection bid".www.wabi.tv.WABI-TV. March 8, 2022. RetrievedMarch 9, 2022.
  7. ^"China resident John Glowa announces as Democratic candidate for governor".The Town Line. September 15, 2021. RetrievedFebruary 24, 2022.
  8. ^"SurveyUSA Mkt Research Study #26081".www.surveyusa.com.
  9. ^abHoward, Andrew (October 10, 2021)."The fruitless effort to primary Janet Mills".The Maine Monitor. RetrievedOctober 11, 2021 – via Bangor Daily News.
  10. ^"Candidates for Governor".emilyslist.org.
  11. ^ab"June 14, 2022 - Primary Election – Non-Ranked Choice Offices".Department of the Secretary of State-Bureau of Corporations, Elections & Commissions.
  12. ^Shepherd, Michael (April 29, 2020)."Paul LePage says 'I am going to challenge Janet Mills' in 2022".Bangor Daily News.Archived from the original on May 2, 2020. RetrievedApril 29, 2020.
  13. ^Collins, Steve (January 19, 2021)."Anti-gay activist Michael Heath says he's running for governor".Sun-Journal.Archived from the original on May 5, 2021. RetrievedJanuary 22, 2021.
  14. ^abcThistle, Scott (September 22, 2021)."LePage makes a return to the campaign stage".Press Herald. RetrievedSeptember 22, 2021.
  15. ^DiStaso, John (November 6, 2020)."NH Primary Source: Did Sununu just announce a 2022 US Senate run against Hassan? No, but …". Archived fromthe original on November 7, 2020. RetrievedJanuary 19, 2021.
  16. ^Leader, Kevin Landrigan New Hampshire Union."Sununu says 'definitely open' to 2022 Senate bid".UnionLeader.com. RetrievedFebruary 20, 2021.
  17. ^Shepherd, Michael (July 22, 2022)."Paul LePage and Jared Golden win Maine police group's backing in major split".Bangor Daily News. RetrievedJuly 23, 2022.
  18. ^Piper, Jessica (May 28, 2022)."A 3rd candidate joins Janet Mills and Paul LePage on the November ballot".Bangor Daily News.
  19. ^Piper, Jessica; Shepherd, Michael; Andrews, Caitlin (July 2, 2021)."Paul LePage versus Janet Mills is on. An anti-CMP corridor candidate might join them".Bangor Daily News.Archived from the original on July 11, 2021. RetrievedAugust 12, 2021.
  20. ^"Former Sen. Saviello says he won't run for governor".MPBN. February 3, 2022. RetrievedFebruary 4, 2022.
  21. ^Strimling, Ethan; Harriman, Phil (April 21, 2022)."Opinion: A red wave may be coming to Maine".Bangor Daily News. RetrievedFebruary 6, 2023.
  22. ^abBillings, Randy (May 3, 2022)."Gov. Mills pledges to protect abortion access; LePage emphasizes his support of restrictions".Press Herald. RetrievedFebruary 6, 2023.
  23. ^Jason, PAFUNDI (January 16, 2016)."Abortion opponents rally in Augusta".Press Herald. RetrievedFebruary 6, 2023.
  24. ^abWong, Amy B (October 5, 2022)."Maine GOP gubernatorial hopeful struggles with abortion questions in debate".The Washington Post.
  25. ^McFadden, Alyce; Bender, Michael C. (October 5, 2022)."LePage Stumbles on Abortion Questioning in Maine Governor's Debate".The New York Times.ISSN 0362-4331. RetrievedFebruary 6, 2023.
  26. ^Billings, Randy (September 27, 2022)."Gov. Mills widens fundraising advantage over LePage".Press Herald. RetrievedFebruary 6, 2023.
  27. ^Randy BillingsStaff Writer (October 28, 2022)."Spending in Maine gubernatorial race surges to new record".Press Herald. RetrievedFebruary 6, 2023.
  28. ^Stein, Adrienne; Bourgault, Matthew (November 9, 2022)."Gov. Mills declares victory, LePage not conceding defeat".WGME. RetrievedFebruary 6, 2023.
  29. ^"Former Gov. LePage concedes, cites 'grave' concerns over inflation for Maine".WMTW. November 9, 2022. RetrievedFebruary 6, 2023.
  30. ^"Paul LePage says Mainers made the wrong choice following failed bid for Blaine House".WABI-TV. November 9, 2022. RetrievedFebruary 7, 2023.
  31. ^Woodard, Colin (November 13, 2022)."Midterms reveal Republican decline across large swaths of Maine".Press Herald. RetrievedFebruary 6, 2023.
  32. ^"2022 Governor Race Ratings".The Cook Political Report. RetrievedFebruary 4, 2021.
  33. ^"Gubernatorial Ratings".Inside Elections. RetrievedFebruary 19, 2021.
  34. ^"2022 Gubernatorial race ratings".Sabato's Crystal Ball. RetrievedMarch 11, 2021.
  35. ^"Maine Governor Race 2022".Politico. April 1, 2022.
  36. ^"2022 Governor Races".RCP. January 10, 2022. RetrievedJanuary 10, 2022.
  37. ^"Fox News Power Rankings: Dems, GOP locked in close battle as final month of campaigning begins".Fox News. October 11, 2022. RetrievedOctober 16, 2022.
  38. ^"2022 Election Forecast".FiveThirtyEight. June 30, 2022. Archived fromthe original on June 30, 2022. RetrievedJune 30, 2022.
  39. ^Szymanski, Joe (November 7, 2022)."Elections Daily Unveils Final 2022 Midterm Ratings".Elections Daily. RetrievedNovember 28, 2022.
  40. ^Billings, Randy (September 30, 2022)."Sen. Angus King endorses Gov. Janet Mills in bid for second term".Lewiston Sun Journal.
  41. ^"Maine AFL-CIO Endorses Janet Mills for Governor".maineaflocio.org.
  42. ^abcd"Janet Mills' Ratings and Endorsements".justfacts.votesmart.org. RetrievedOctober 26, 2022.
  43. ^"Human Rights Campaign Endorses Maine Gov. Janet Mills for Reelection".hrc.org. June 14, 2022.
  44. ^"Maine Conservation Voters Action Fund Endorses Governor Janet Mills over Paul LePage"(PDF).npeaction.org.
  45. ^"Maine Credit Union League Endorses Janet T. Mills for Governor".mainecul.org. September 22, 2022. RetrievedOctober 26, 2022.
  46. ^"Take It From Maine Conservation Voters: Paul LePage Is A Threat To Maine's Environment".www.mainedems.org. June 2, 2022. RetrievedOctober 26, 2022.
  47. ^"We Strongly Endorse Janet Mills for Governor of Maine".maineconservtion.org. October 6, 2018.
  48. ^"Planned Parenthood endorses Maine Gov. Janet Mills for reelection citing record on abortion rights".wtmw.com. July 28, 2022.
  49. ^"2022 Endorsed Candidates".www.rachesactionnetwork.org. RetrievedOctober 26, 2022.
  50. ^"Maine workers endorse Governor Janet Mills for reelection".mseaseiu.org.
  51. ^"Sierra Club Maine 2022 Endorsed Candidates".www.sierra club.com. RetrievedOctober 26, 2022.
  52. ^"Governor Mills Awarded Endorsements from Two Major Non-profits".munjoyhillnews.net. September 22, 2022. RetrievedOctober 26, 2022.
  53. ^"All Endorsed Candidates".womenspoliticalcommittee.org. RetrievedOctober 26, 2022.
  54. ^"Editorial: Janet Mills should be reelected as Maine's governor". October 27, 2022.
  55. ^"Florida Gov. DeSantis endorses LePage, other Republican candidates". November 3, 2022.
  56. ^"Va. Gov. Youngkin to travel to Maine to endorse GOP gubernatorial candidate".
  57. ^Mundry, Jackie (July 27, 2022)."Mills, LePage pick up major endorsements this week in Maine".WCSH. RetrievedAugust 5, 2022.
  58. ^FiveThirtyEight
  59. ^University of New Hampshire
  60. ^SurveyUSA
  61. ^Ascend Action
  62. ^Pan Atlantic Research
  63. ^Emerson College
  64. ^University of New Hampshire
  65. ^Maine People's Resource Center
  66. ^Fabrizio Ward (R)/Impact Research (D)
  67. ^Pan Atlantic Research
  68. ^Digital Research Inc.
  69. ^SurveyUSA (D)
  70. ^SurveyUSA
  71. ^Miller, Kevin (October 5, 2022)."Mills, LePage spar over abortion, immigration and economy in first televised debate".Maine Public.Archived from the original on October 13, 2022. RetrievedOctober 17, 2022.
  72. ^Overton, Penelope; Billings, Randy (October 6, 2022)."Mills and LePage take on economic issues, and each other, in Portland debate".Portland Press Herald.Archived from the original on October 13, 2022. RetrievedOctober 17, 2022.
  73. ^Miller, Kevin (October 25, 2022)."Behind in the polls, LePage ratchets up attacks on Mills during second TV debate".Maine Public.Archived from the original on November 1, 2022. RetrievedNovember 1, 2022.
  74. ^"LePage and Mills face off in Voice of the Voter forum. Here's what they said".News Center Maine. October 28, 2022.Archived from the original on October 30, 2022. RetrievedNovember 1, 2022.
  75. ^"Maine Secretary of State: November 8, 2022 General Election- Non-Ranked Choice Offices". November 30, 2022. RetrievedNovember 30, 2022.
  76. ^"DRA 2020". RetrievedNovember 5, 2024.

External links

[edit]

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