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2022 Kansas gubernatorial election

From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

For related races, see2022 United States gubernatorial elections.

2022 Kansas gubernatorial election

← 2018November 8, 20222026 →
Turnout47.94%Decrease[1]
 
NomineeLaura KellyDerek Schmidt
PartyDemocraticRepublican
Running mateDavid TolandKatie Sawyer
Popular vote499,849477,591
Percentage49.54%47.33%

County results
Congressional district results
Precinct results
Kelly:     40–50%     50–60%     60–70%     70–80%     80–90%     >90%
Schmidt:     40–50%     50–60%     60–70%     70–80%     80–90%     >90%
Pyle:     60–70%     >90%
Tie:     30–40%     40–50%     50%     No votes

Governor before election

Laura Kelly
Democratic

ElectedGovernor

Laura Kelly
Democratic

Elections in Kansas
Presidential elections
Presidential primaries
Democratic
2004
2008
2012
2016
2020
Republican
2008
2012
2016
2024
U.S. Senate elections
U.S. House of Representatives elections
Mayoral elections

The2022 Kansas gubernatorial election took place on November 8, 2022, to elect thegovernor of Kansas, withprimary elections taking place on August 2, 2022.[2] GovernorLaura Kelly won re-election to a second term, defeating Republican State Attorney General Derek Schmidt in the general election by a margin of roughly 2.2 percentage points. This was the only statewide victory in 2022 for Democrats in Kansas.

This was the only Democratic-held governorship up for election in2022 in a stateDonald Trump won in the2020 presidential election, and the race was expected to be one of the most competitive gubernatorial races in the nation. Some analysts andKansas Republican Party officials had also predicted that Dennis Pyle, who was on the ballot as anindependent, would have aspoiler effect benefiting Kelly.[3][4] This was the first gubernatorial election in Kansas since1986 in which the winner was from the same party as the incumbent president, and the first since1978 that it was a Democrat.[5]

Democratic primary

[edit]

Candidates

[edit]

Nominated

[edit]
  • Laura Kelly, incumbent governor (2019–present)[6]
    • Running mate:David Toland, incumbent lieutenant governor (2021–present) and Secretary of Commerce (2019–present)[6]

Eliminated in primary

[edit]
  • Richard Karnowski, accountant[7]
    • Running mate: Barry Franco[7]
Laura Kelly

State officials

State legislators

Organization

Results

[edit]
Results by county:
  Kelly
  •   70–80%
  •   80–90%
  •   90–100%
Democratic primary results[12]
PartyCandidateVotes%
Democratic
270,96893.84
Democratic
  • Richard Karnowski
  • Barry Franco
17,8026.16
Total votes288,770100

Republican primary

[edit]

Candidates

[edit]

Nominated

[edit]

Eliminated in primary

[edit]

Withdrew

[edit]

Declined

[edit]

Endorsements

[edit]
Derek Schmidt

U.S. executive branch officials

U.S. senators

U.S. representatives

State officials

Organizations

Jeff Colyer (withdrew)

U.S. representatives

Declined to endorse

U.S. senators

Polling

[edit]
Hypothetical polling
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size[a]
Margin
of error
Jeff
Colyer
Ron
Ryckman Jr.
Derek
Schmidt
Undecided
Cygnal (R)[36][A]March 3–4, 2021510 (LV)± 4.3%19%5%28%49%

Results

[edit]
Results by county:
  Schmidt
  •   70–80%
  •   80–90%
  •   90–100%
Republican primary results[12]
PartyCandidateVotes%
Republican
373,52480.60
Republican
  • Arlyn Briggs
  • Lance Berland
89,89819.40
Total votes463,422100.00

Independent

[edit]

Candidates

[edit]

Declared

[edit]

General election

[edit]

Campaign

[edit]

Reporters noted the lack of attention towardsabortion as an issue in the campaign by both major candidates, despite thedefeat of an abortion amendment in August which was widely seen as a prominent victory for thepro-choice movement.[38][39] In televised debates, Schmidt said that he respected the referendum results and accused Kelly of opposing existing abortion restrictions. Kelly denied the accusation, saying that she had stayed consistent on the subject, and further adding that she believed in "bodily autonomy" for women.[40] When pressed on whether they would support retaining all justices in thestate Supreme Court who ruled abortion as a fundamental constitutional right in 2019 and were up on the ballot, Kelly said that she would, while Schmidt said he would vote to retain some and not others.[41]

Instead, both candidates focused more on "kitchen-table" issues such as the economy and education,[39] where polls showed that the former of which was the most important concern among voters.[38][42] Kelly's campaign tied Schmidt with former governorSam Brownback and hisKansas experiment, highlighting Schmidt's defense of lawsuits regardingbudget cuts to public education as the attorney general.[43] In the contrary, Schmidt's campaign tied Kelly with President Joe Biden by focusing on national issues such as theincrease in inflation and gas prices, portraying them as "big-spending liberals".[41] Other issues includecriminal justice[44][45] andtransgender people in sports.[46][47]

Aside from state Supreme Court justiceretention elections and other statewide elections, the election was also held on the same ballot as two referendums for proposed constitutional amendments. Question 1 would authorize thestate legislature toveto any rules and regulations implemented byKansas's executive branch with a simple majority.[48] The proposal was spearheaded by Schmidt in 2021 in response to Governor Kelly'spandemic-related measures toclose schools temporarily and he madeCOVID-19 lockdowns and mandates as a focal point in his platform.[49] Kelly's campaign countered that the amendment would be a "power grab" that could create furthergridlock in the state's legislative process.[50][51] Question 2 would require most sheriffs to be elected directly by voters and that they could only be removed by arecall election or a challenge by the state attorney general.[52] In a press release, Schmidt said that he would campaign for the amendment, arguing that electing sheriffs would make them "uniquely accountable to the people".[53] Critics pointed out that the amendment could createabuse of power as the authority to investigate the sheriff would be stripped fromdistrict attorneys in every county and the attorney general could "play favorites" into which sheriff to investigate.[49] In the end, Question 1 failed narrowly by a one-point margin, while Question 2 passed with 62% of the vote.[54]

Predictions

[edit]
SourceRankingAs of
The Cook Political Report[55]TossupJuly 26, 2022
Inside Elections[56]TossupJuly 22, 2022
Sabato's Crystal Ball[57]Lean R(flip)November 7, 2022
Politico[58]TossupAugust 12, 2022
RCP[59]TossupAugust 3, 2022
Fox News[60]TossupOctober 25, 2022
538[61]Lean DSeptember 13, 2022
Elections Daily[62]Lean DNovember 7, 2022

Post-primary endorsements

[edit]
Laura Kelly (D)

Federal officials

State officials

State legislators

Organizations

Newspapers

Derek Schmidt (R)

U.S. executive branch officials

Federal legislators

State officials

Polling

[edit]

Aggregate polls

Source of poll
aggregation
Dates
administered
Dates
updated
Laura
Kelly (D)
Derek
Schmidt (R)
Other
[b]
Margin
FiveThirtyEight[77]August 10 – October 29, 2022November 2, 202248.6%43.5%7.9%Kelly +5.1

Graphical summary

This graph was using thelegacy Graph extension, which is no longer supported. It needs to be converted to thenew Chart extension.
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size[a]
Margin
of error
Laura
Kelly (D)
Derek
Schmidt (R)
Dennis
Pyle (I)
OtherUndecided
Emerson College[78]October 27–29, 20221,000 (LV)± 3.0%46%43%5%2%[c]4%
49%44%5%2%[d]
Jayhawk Consulting (D)[79][B]October 10–12, 2022500 (LV)38%37%7%18%
Emerson College[80]September 15–18, 20221,000 (LV)± 3.0%45%43%3%1%[e]8%
Echelon Insights[81][C]August 31 – September 7, 2022392 (LV)± 7.5%53%41%5%
Battleground Connect (R)[82][D]August 8–10, 20221,074 (LV)± 3.0%45%48%2%5%
WPA Intelligence (R)[83][E]April 26–27, 2022500 (LV)± 4.4%43%47%10%
Clarity Campaign Labs (D)[84][F]September 13–15, 2021810 (LV)± 3.5%47%44%9%
Remington Research Group (R)[85]September 7–9, 20211,000 (LV)± 3.0%40%44%16%

Debates and forums

[edit]
2022 Kansas gubernatorial debates and forums
No.DateHostModeratorLocationLinkRepublicanDemocraticLibertarianIndependent
 P Participant   A Absent   N Non-invitee   I Invitee

 W  Withdrawn

Derek SchmidtLaura KellySeth CordellDennis Pyle
1[86]September 7, 2022Kansas Chamber of CommerceOlathe[f]PPNN
2[88]September 10, 2022WIBW-FMGreg AkagiHutchinsonYoutubePPNN
3[89]October 5, 2022Kansas City PBS/
Johnson County Bar Association
Nick HainesOverland ParkYoutubePPNN

Results

[edit]
Swing by county
Legend
  •   Democratic — +7.5–10%
  •   Democratic — +5-7.5%
  •   Democratic — +2.5-5%
  •   Democratic — +0-2.5%
  •   Republican — +0-2.5%
  •   Republican — +2.5-5%
  •   Republican — +5-7.5%
  •   Republican — +7.5–10%
  •   Republican — +10-12.5%
  •   Republican — +12.5–15%
  •   Republican — +>15%
Trend by county
Legend
  •   Democratic — +7.5–10%
  •   Democratic — +5-7.5%
  •   Democratic — +2.5-5%
  •   Democratic — +0-2.5%
  •   Republican — +0-2.5%
  •   Republican — +2.5-5%
  •   Republican — +5-7.5%
  •   Republican — +7.5–10%
  •   Republican — +10-12.5%
  •   Republican — +12.5–15%
  •   Republican — +>15%
2022 Kansas gubernatorial election[54]
PartyCandidateVotes%±%
Democratic
499,84949.54%+1.53%
Republican
477,59147.33%+4.35%
Independent
20,4522.03%N/A
Libertarian
  • Seth Cordell
  • Evan Laudick-Gains
11,1061.10%−0.80%
Total votes1,008,998100.0%
Turnout47.94%
Democratichold

Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican

[edit]

Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic

[edit]
Radar chart contrasting Laura Kelly's 2022 performance[90][91] with Vote No in2022 Kansas abortion referendum[92][93]

By congressional district

[edit]

Kelly won two of four congressional districts, including one that elected a Republican.[94]

DistrictKellySchmidtRepresentative
1st44%52%Tracey Mann
2nd49%48%Jake LaTurner
3rd57%40%Sharice Davids
4th46%51%Ron Estes

Analysis

[edit]

Laura Kelly won the election by a margin of 2.2 percentage points over Derek Schmidt, similar to the percentage of votes that independent Dennis Pyle received.Kansas Republican Party Chair Mike Kuckelman pointed to this as evidence that Pyle was somewhat responsible for Schmidt's defeat. However, Pyle insisted that "Kansas needed a strong conservative candidate" and instead highlighted Schmidt's underperformance compared to other Republican candidates in Kansas.[4] This was the first election since 2002 where the winner of the United States Senate election in Kansas was of a different party from the winner of the concurrent gubernatorial election.

Kelly's personal popularity was also a factor in her victory, where a majority of voters approved of Kelly's job performance, while only a third did so for President Joe Biden.[95][96] Her win was also propelled by Democratic candidates' increased strength in suburban areas, such asJohnson County, in spite of Schmidt's increased vote share from 2018 in the Republican strongholds of rural Kansas.[97] Kelly also wonSedgwick County, home ofWichita, by 2.9%,[98] receiving 1.8% more of the vote than in the2018 Kansas gubernatorial election.[99] According to a survey conducted byNORC and published byFox News, Kelly won independent voters by double-digit margins, which contributed to Schmidt's defeat.[100]

Exit polls

[edit]

According toFox News'svoter analysis of the 2022 race,[101] Kelly won women voters (51% Kelly, 45% Schmidt), voters 18–29 (51% Kelly, 43% Schmidt),millennials (55%, 39%),Gen X (50%, 47%), college-educated voters (57%, 40%), andLatino/Hispanic voters (58%).

Kelly lost voters who were concerned about inflation by four points (46%). She lost voters who listed groceries and food as their most important inflation concern by one point.[102][103] 69% of voters listed abortion as an important factor in their vote, and Kelly won this group by 24 points (60%, 36%), closely mirroring the results of the2022 Kansas abortion referendum. She won voters who listed "the future of democracy in this country" as an important factor in their vote (88% of voters) by seven points (52%).[101]

See also

[edit]

Notes

[edit]
  1. ^abKey:
    A – all adults
    RV – registered voters
    LV – likely voters
    V – unclear
  2. ^Calculated by taking the difference of 100% and all other candidates combined.
  3. ^Cordell (L) with 1%; "Someone else" with 1%
  4. ^Cordell (L) with 1%; "Someone else" with 1%
  5. ^"Someone else" with 1%
  6. ^Recording not made public[87]

Partisan clients

  1. ^This poll was sponsored by Our Way of Life PAC.
  2. ^This poll was sponsored by Patrick Schmidt's campaign, the Democratic nominee forKansas's 2nd congressional district.
  3. ^This poll was sponsored by NetChoice.
  4. ^This poll was sponsored by the John Brown Freedom Fund.
  5. ^This poll was sponsored by Kris Kobach's campaign for Attorney General.
  6. ^This poll was sponsored by EMILY's List, which supports Kelly.

References

[edit]
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  80. ^Emerson College
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  82. ^Battleground Connect (R)
  83. ^WPA Intelligence (R)
  84. ^Clarity Campaign Labs (D)
  85. ^Remington Research Group (R)
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  97. ^Bahl, Andrew (November 10, 2022)."Laura Kelly won a second term as Kansas governor. This part of the state was key".The Topeka Capital-Journal.Archived from the original on November 10, 2022. RetrievedNovember 14, 2022.
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  99. ^"Kansas Election Results 2018: Live Midterm Map by County & Analysis".www.politico.com. November 7, 2018. RetrievedAugust 2, 2023.
  100. ^"Fox News Voter Analysis".Fox News. July 9, 2023. RetrievedJuly 9, 2023.
  101. ^ab"Fox News Voter Analysis".Fox News. July 9, 2023. RetrievedJuly 9, 2023.
  102. ^Finnerty, Katharine (May 11, 2022)."Kansas Gov. Laura Kelly signs 'Axe the Food Tax' bill into law".KSHB 41 Kansas City News. RetrievedJuly 9, 2023.
  103. ^"Governor Laura Kelly's Plan to "Axe the Food Tax": What They're Saying".Governor of the State of Kansas. November 10, 2021. RetrievedJuly 9, 2023.

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