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2022 Florida gubernatorial election

From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

For related races, see2022 United States gubernatorial elections.

2022 Florida gubernatorial election
← 2018
November 8, 2022
2026 →
Turnout53.6%Decrease 9.0pp
 
NomineeRon DeSantisCharlie Crist
PartyRepublicanDemocratic
Running mateJeanette NuñezKarla Hernández-Mats
Popular vote4,614,2103,106,313
Percentage59.37%39.97%
County results
Congressional district results
Precinct results
DeSantis:     40–50%     50–60%     60–70%     70–80%     80–90%     >90%
Crist:     40–50%     50–60%     60–70%     70–80%     80–90%     >90%
Tie:     40–50%     50%     No votes
Governor before election

Ron DeSantis
Republican

ElectedGovernor

Ron DeSantis
Republican

Elections in Florida
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The2022 Florida gubernatorial election was held on November 8, 2022, to elect thegovernor of Florida, alongside other state andlocal elections. IncumbentRepublican GovernorRon DeSantis won re-election in alandslide,[1] defeating theDemocratic Party nominee,Charlie Crist, who served as governor of Florida from 2007 to 2011 as a Republican and later as an independent. No Democrat has been elected governor of Florida since1994.[2][3][4]

With 59.4 percent of the vote, DeSantis won the largest margin of victory in a Florida gubernatorial election since1982.[5] Significantly, DeSantis wonMiami-Dade County, which had been considered a Democratic stronghold and had last voted Republican in2002, andPalm Beach County, which had not voted Republican since1986.[6][7] Crist conceded the election shortly after DeSantis was projected as the winner.[8] DeSantis won 8 counties he lost in2018.

According toexit polls, DeSantis won 65% ofWhite voters, 13% ofBlack voters, and 58% ofLatinos; of the latter group, DeSantis won 69% ofCubans and 56% ofPuerto Ricans. DeSantis also won a majority of Latina women in Florida.[9]

DeSantis's large margin of victory was in part due to him flipping Democratic strongholdMiami-Dade County for the first time since2002, andPalm Beach County for the first time since1986, as well as winningHillsborough,Osceola,Pinellas, andSt. Lucie counties for the first time since2006. This was also the first gubernatorial election since 2006 in which a candidate received over 50% of the vote. His 19.4% margin of victory was the largest since1982 and the largest for a Republican in state history, compared to 0.4% four years earlier. It was also the first time the governorship was won by double digits since 2002, and the first time it was won by over a million votes.[10][11]

Significantly, Crist's 40.0% performance was the worst for a Democratic nominee for governor of Florida since1916, a three candidate race. Republicans won all other statewide races by double digits; this is the first time since the end ofReconstruction that Democrats do not hold at least one of the statewide positions. DeSantis also made large gains among Hispanic voters, becoming the first Florida Republican in decades to win a majority of those voters.[9][12] He also had a major fundraising advantage over Crist, setting an all-time record for a gubernatorial candidate.[13]

Some analysts believe that this election marked the transition of Florida from being aswing state into a red state.[14][15]Donald Trump would winFlorida in 2024 by 13 percentage points, far exceeding his two prior performances in the state.[16][17]

Background

[edit]

To qualify for the ballot in Florida, partisan candidates must first file with theDivision of Elections of theFlorida Department of State. After filing, a candidate must then qualify for the ballot by a deadline by either paying qualifying fees totaling 6% of the salary of the position sought, or obtaining sufficiently many signatures. Not all candidates who filed to run for governor subsequently qualified to appear on the ballot.[18]

Republican primary

[edit]

Candidates

[edit]

Nominee

[edit]

Failed to qualify

[edit]

Declined

[edit]

Endorsements

[edit]
Ron DeSantis

U.S. senators

Organizations

Democratic primary

[edit]
Florida Agriculture CommissionerNikki Fried finished second in the primary.

Candidates

[edit]

Nominee

[edit]

Eliminated in primary

[edit]

Failed to qualify

[edit]

Withdrawn

[edit]

Declined

[edit]

Endorsements

[edit]
Charlie Crist

U.S. representatives

State officials

State legislators

Local officials

Organizations

Labor unions

Newspapers

Individuals

Nikki Fried

State legislators

Individuals

Organizations

Annette Taddeo(withdrawn)

U.S. representatives

State legislators

Local officials

Organizations

Individuals

Polling

[edit]

Graphical summary

This graph was using thelegacy Graph extension, which is no longer supported. It needs to be converted to thenew Chart extension.
Source of poll
aggregation		Dates
administered		Dates
updated		Charlie
Crist		Nikki
Fried		Other
[a]		Margin
Real Clear Politics[126]February 7 – June 17, 2022June 20, 202240.0%23.3%36.7%Crist +16.7
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size[b]		Margin
of error		Charlie
Crist		Nikki
Fried		Annette
Taddeo		OtherUndecided
St. Pete Polls[127]August 20–21, 20221,617 (LV)± 2.4%59%30%––11%
Change Research (D)[128][A]August 12–14, 2022702 (LV)± 4.2%47%37%––16%
University of North Florida[129]August 8–12, 2022529 (LV)± 6.0%43%47%–5%[c]6%
Public Policy Polling (D)[130][B]August 8–9, 2022664 (LV)± 3.8%42%35%––23%
St. Pete Polls[131]August 2–3, 20221,361 (LV)± 2.7%56%24%––20%
GBAO (D)[132][A]July 27–31, 2022800 (LV)± 3.5%52%36%––12%
Kaplan Strategies[133]July 6, 2022671 (LV)± 3.8%39%39%––22%
GBAO (D)[134][A]June 23–26, 2022600 (LV)± 4.0%55%34%––11%
St. Pete Polls[135]June 16–17, 20221,007 (LV)± 3.1%49%24%––27%
Global Strategy Group (D)[136][B]June 8–13, 2022600 (LV)± 4.0%38%34%––29%
June 6, 2022Taddeo withdraws from the race
St. Pete Polls[137]May 2–3, 20221,859 (LV)± 2.3%52%19%5%–24%
Sachs Media Group[138]April 8–10, 2022700 (RV)± 3.7%35%20%4%–41%
University of North Florida[139]February 7–20, 2022271 (RV)± 6.0%27%19%4%8%[d]44%
Mason-Dixon[140]February 7–10, 2022400 (LV)± 5.0%44%27%3%–26%
Alvarado Strategies (R)[141][C]February 20221,007 (LV)± 3.1%36%25%6%10%23%
GBAO (D)[142][A]January 26–31, 2022800 (LV)± 3.5%54%28%7%–11%
56%33%––11%
Public Policy Polling (D)[143][B]January 26–27, 2022582 (LV)± 4.1%36%34%––29%
Public Policy Polling (D)[144][B]August 10–11, 2021274 (LV)± 5.9%33%36%––31%
Susquehanna Polling & Research (R)[145]August 4–10, 2021245 (RV)± 6.3%38%27%–5%30%
Political Matrix (R)[146]June 9–11, 2021660 (LV)± 4.5%41%31%––29%
St. Pete Polls[147]May 24–26, 20212,752 (RV)± 1.9%55%22%–11%12%
Victory Insights (R)[148]May 4, 2021232 (RV)± 7.0%53%30%–17%[e]–
SEA Polling (D)[149][D]April 15–20, 2021600 (LV)± 4.0%28%26%13%–34%

Results

[edit]
Results by county:
  Crist
  •   40–50%
  •   50–60%
  •   60–70%
  •   70–80%
  Fried
  •   40–50%
Democratic primary results[150]
PartyCandidateVotes%
DemocraticCharlie Crist904,52459.71%
DemocraticNicole "Nikki" Fried535,48035.35%
DemocraticCadance Daniel38,1982.52%
DemocraticRobert L. Willis36,7862.43%
Total votes1,513,180100.0%

Running mate selection

[edit]

In June 2022,Politico released a shortlist of 18 people who Crist was considering as his running mate.[151] On August 26, four days after Crist won the gubernatorial primary,CBS News reported that he had selected Karla Hernández-Mats, one of the people on the Politico shortlist.[152]

Selected

[edit]
  • Karla Hernández-Mats, president of the United Teachers ofDade[151][153]

On shortlist

[edit]

Independent and third-party candidates

[edit]

Green Party

[edit]

Withdrawn

[edit]

Independent Party

[edit]

Withdrawn

[edit]
  • Gizmo Wexler, IT administrator[156]

Libertarian Party

[edit]

Declared

[edit]

Declined

[edit]

Independent candidates

[edit]

Declared

[edit]
  • Carmen Jackie Gimenez[160]

Failed to qualify

[edit]
  • Eugene H. Steele, attorney[161]

Withdrawn

[edit]
  • Mark B. Graham, computer technician and candidate forpresident in2016[162]
  • Frank Hughes Jr., education consultant[163]
  • Jodi Gregory Jeloudov[164]

Declined

[edit]

Write-ins

[edit]

Declared

[edit]
  • Piotr Blass, perennial candidate[167]
  • James Thompson, pastor

General election

[edit]

Debate

[edit]
2022 Florida gubernatorial debate
No.DateHostModeratorLinkParticipants
 P Participant   A Absent   N Non-invitee   I Invitee   W Withdrawn
Ron DeSantisCharlie Crist
1October 24, 2022WPEC-TVLiz QuirantesYouTube[168]PP

Predictions

[edit]
SourceRankingAs of
The Cook Political Report[169]Likely RJuly 22, 2022
Inside Elections[170]Likely RJuly 22, 2022
Sabato's Crystal Ball[171]Safe ROctober 31, 2022
Politico[172]Likely RApril 1, 2022
RCP[173]Lean RJanuary 10, 2022
Fox News[174]Likely RMay 12, 2022
538[175]Solid ROctober 18, 2022
Elections Daily[176]Safe RNovember 7, 2022

Post-primary endorsements

[edit]
Ron DeSantis (R)

Former U.S. Executive Branch officials

U.S. senators

U.S. representatives

State officials

State legislators

Local officials

  • Dave Kerner, member of thePalm Beach County Commission from the 3rd District (2016–present); former state representative from the 87th district (2012–2016)[184](Democrat)

Individuals

Organizations

Charlie Crist (D)

U.S. Executive Branch officials

U.S. representatives

State officials

Individuals

Organizations

Newspapers

Polling

[edit]

Aggregate polls

Source of poll
aggregation		Dates
administered		Dates
updated		Ron
DeSantis (R)		Charlie
Crist (D)		Other
[f]		Margin
Real Clear Politics[197]October 17 – November 6, 2022November 8, 202254.4%42.2%3.4%DeSantis +12.2
FiveThirtyEight[198]October 30, 2022 – November 7, 2022November 8, 202254.5%42.4%3.0%DeSantis +12.1
270 to win[199]November 4–7, 2022November 8, 202254.0%41.8%4.2%DeSantis +12.2
Average54.3%42.1%3.6%DeSantis +12.2
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size[b]		Margin
of error		Ron
DeSantis (R)		Charlie
Crist (D)		OtherUndecided
The Political Matrix/The Listener Group (R)[200]November 6–7, 2022722 (LV)± 3.8%52%48%––
Research Co.[201]November 4–6, 2022450 (LV)± 4.6%54%41%2%[g]3%
Data for Progress (D)[202]November 2–6, 20221,436 (LV)± 3.0%57%42%2%[h]–
Amber Integrated (R)[203]November 1–2, 2022600 (LV)± 4.0%53%40%4%[i]4%
Civiqs[204]October 29 – November 2, 2022772 (LV)± 3.9%54%45%1%[j]1%
InsiderAdvantage (R)[205][E]November 1, 2022550 (LV)± 4.2%53%43%1%[k]3%
Siena College[206]October 30 – November 1, 2022659 (LV)± 4.4%54%42%–3%
Victory Insights[207]October 30 – November 1, 2022500 (LV)± 4.8%54%41%–5%
Florida State University/YouGov[208]October 20–31, 20221,117 (RV)–53%43%––
The Political Matrix/The Listener Group (R)[209]October 27–28, 2022633 (LV)± 3.3%47%53%––
University of North Florida[210]October 17–24, 2022622 (LV)± 4.7%55%41%2%[l]3%
Data for Progress (D)[211]October 19–23, 20221,251 (LV)± 3.0%54%42%1%[m]2%
Cherry Communications (R)[212][F]October 13–23, 2022601 (LV)± 4.0%53%42%–5%
Stetson University[213]October 16–20, 2022644 (LV)± 4.0%53%45%–2%
Florida Atlantic University[214]October 12–16, 2022719 (LV)± 3.7%51%40%4%[n]5%
YouGov[215][G]October 11–16, 2022832 (LV)± 3.0%53%43%4%–
Sachs Media[216]October 15, 2022600 (LV)–52%42%–6%
RMG Research (R)[217][H]October 10–13, 2022685 (LV)± 3.7%52%42%–6%
African American Research Collaborative (D)[218][I]October 4–11, 20221,250 (RV)± 2.8%46%41%–13%
Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy[219]September 26–28, 2022800 (LV)± 3.5%52%41%1%6%
Clarity Campaign Labs (D)[220][J]September 22–27, 20222,860 (LV)± 1.8%47%46%–7%
The Political Matrix/The Listener Group (R)[221]September 21, 2022700 (LV)± 3.3%47%53%––
Siena College[222]September 18–25, 2022669 (LV)± 4.5%49%41%2%[o]7%
Civiqs[223]September 17–20, 2022617 (LV)± 4.5%52%45%1%[p]2%
Suffolk University[224]September 15–18, 2022500 (LV)± 4.4%48%41%5%[q]7%
Sachs Media[225]September 10, 2022600 (LV)–51%45%–4%
Survey Monkey (D)[226][K]September 9–10, 2022999 (RV)± 3.0%49%43%–8%
563 (LV)± 3.0%50%47%–3%
Echelon Insights[227]August 31 – September 7, 2022815 (LV)± 4.3%52%42%–7%
InsiderAdvantage (R)[228][E]September 5–6, 2022550 (LV)± 4.2%50%45%–5%
Susquehanna Polling and Research (R)[229]August 29 – September 4, 2022500 (LV)± 4.3%47%43%–10%
Neighborhood Research and Media[230]August 29 – September 2, 2022362 (LV)± 4.3%50%41%–9%
Fabrizio Ward (R)/Impact Research (D)[231]August 24–31, 2022500 (LV)± 4.4%50%47%–3%
Clarity Campaign Labs (D)[232][J]August 25–30, 20223,017 (LV)± 1.8%48%45%–7%
Impact Research (D)[233][L]August 12–18, 2022800 (LV)± 3.5%51%46%–3%
Cherry Communications (R)[234][F]August 4–15, 2022608 (LV)± 4.0%51%43%–6%
University of North Florida[235]August 8–12, 20221,624 (RV)± 3.4%50%42%6%2%
Clarity Campaign Labs (D)[236][J]July 26–31, 20222,244 (LV)± 2.1%47%44%–9%
The Political Matrix/The Listener Group (R)[237]May 27 – June 4, 2022714 (LV)± 3.7%49%51%––
Fabrizio Lee & Associates (R)[238][M]Mid-May 20221,200 (RV)± 2.8%47%48%–5%
Phillips Academy[239]May 7–9, 2022543 (RV)± 4.2%36%35%–30%
Saint Leo University[240]February 28 – March 12, 2022500 (LV)± 4.5%49%33%–18%
The Political Matrix/The Listener Group (R)[241]February 23, 20221,064 (LV)± 3.0%44%56%––
University of North Florida[242]February 7–20, 2022685 (RV)± 3.7%55%34%–11%
Mason-Dixon[140]February 7–10, 2022625 (RV)± 4.0%51%43%–6%
Suffolk University[243]January 26–29, 2022500 (LV)± 4.4%49%43%0%8%
St. Pete Polls[244]November 18–19, 20212,896 (LV)± 1.8%51%45%–5%
Redfield & Wilton Strategies[245]November 9, 2021867 (RV)± 3.3%44%37%5%9%
842 (LV)± 3.4%46%40%4%7%
Saint Leo University[246]October 17–23, 2021500 (A)± 4.5%47%35%–18%
VCreek/AMG (R)[247][N]September 23–27, 2021405 (LV)± 4.9%47%39%2%12%
The Political Matrix/The Listener Group (R)[248]September 11–12, 20211,144 (LV)± 3.1%45%55%––
The Political Matrix/The Listener Group (R)[249]September 3–5, 20211,144 (LV)± 3.1%45%55%––
RMG Research[250]August 21–28, 20211,000 (RV)± 3.1%45%38%–17%
Redfield & Wilton Strategies[251]August 20–24, 20211,000 (RV)± 3.1%45%36%5%9%
977 (LV)48%38%5%8%
The Political Matrix/The Listener Group (R)[252]August 14–18, 20211,000 (LV)± 3.1%43%57%––
Change Research (D)[253][O]August 14–17, 20211,585 (LV)± 2.5%49%45%–6%
Susquehanna Polling & Research (R)[145]August 4–10, 2021700 (RV)± 3.7%46%43%3%7%
Cherry Communications (R)[254][F]July 26 – August 4, 2021610 (LV)± 4.0%51%43%–6%
St. Pete Polls[255]August 2–3, 20213,952 (LV)± 1.6%44%45%–11%
The Political Matrix/The Listener Group (R)[256]June 21, 2021716 (LV)± 3.7%55%45%––
Cherry Communications (R)[257][F]April 30 – May 8, 2021602 (LV)± 4.0%51%41%–8%
Victory Insights (R)[148]May 4, 2021600 (RV)± 4.1%53%47%––
Mason-Dixon[258]February 24–28, 2021625 (RV)± 4.0%52%41%–7%
Hypothetical polling

Ron DeSantis vs. Nikki Fried

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size[b]		Margin
of error		Ron
DeSantis (R)		Nikki
Fried (D)		OtherUndecided
Cherry Communications (R)[234][F]August 4–15, 2022608 (LV)± 4.0%50%43%–7%
University of North Florida[259]August 8–12, 20221,624 (RV)± 3.4%50%43%5%2%
Clarity Campaign Labs (D)[236][J]July 26–31, 20222,244 (LV)± 2.1%49%43%–8%
Saint Leo University[260]February 28 – March 12, 2022500 (LV)± 4.5%51%27%–22%
The Political Matrix/The Listener Group (R)[241]February 23, 20221,064 (LV)± 3.0%50%50%––
University of North Florida[261]February 7–20, 2022685 (RV)± 3.7%55%32%–12%
Mason-Dixon[140]February 7–10, 2022625 (RV)± 4.0%53%42%–5%
Suffolk University[243]January 26–29, 2022500 (LV)± 4.4%51%40%0%9%
St. Pete Polls[244]November 18–19, 20212,896 (LV)± 1.8%51%42%–6%
Redfield & Wilton Strategies[245]November 9, 2021867 (RV)± 3.3%46%35%4%8%
842 (LV)± 3.4%50%37%4%7%
Saint Leo University[246]October 17–23, 2021500 (A)± 4.5%46%33%–21%
VCreek/AMG (R)[247][N]September 23–27, 2021405 (LV)± 4.9%48%36%5%11%
The Political Matrix/The Listener Group (R)[249]September 3–5, 20211,144 (LV)± 3.1%52%48%––
RMG Research[250]August 21–28, 20211,000 (RV)± 3.1%41%38%–21%
Redfield & Wilton Strategies[251]August 20–24, 20211,000 (RV)± 3.1%45%36%4%11%
977 (LV)48%38%3%10%
The Political Matrix/The Listener Group (R)[252]August 14–18, 20211,000 (LV)± 3.1%46%54%––
Change Research (D)[253][O]August 14–17, 20211,585 (LV)± 2.5%49%44%–7%
Susquehanna Polling & Research (R)[145]August 4–10, 2021700 (RV)± 3.7%50%40%2%7%
Cherry Communications (R)[254][F]July 26 – August 4, 2021610 (LV)± 4.0%51%42%–7%
St. Pete Polls[255]August 2–3, 20213,952 (LV)± 1.6%45%42%–13%
The Political Matrix/The Listener Group (R)[256]June 21, 2021716 (LV)± 3.7%61%39%––
Cherry Communications (R)[257][F]April 30 – May 8, 2021602 (LV)± 4.0%51%39%–10%
Victory Insights (R)[148]May 4, 2021600 (RV)± 4.1%53%47%––
St. Pete Polls[262]March 22–24, 20211,923 (LV)± 2.2%45%45%–10%
Mason-Dixon[258]February 24–28, 2021625 (RV)± 4.0%51%42%–7%

Ron DeSantis vs. Annette Taddeo

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size[b]		Margin
of error		Ron
DeSantis (R)		Annette
Taddeo (D)		Undecided
Saint Leo University[263]February 28 – March 12, 2022500 (LV)± 4.5%49%30%22%
Mason-Dixon[140]February 7–10, 2022625 (RV)± 4.0%53%37%10%
Saint Leo University[246]October 17–23, 2021500 (A)± 4.5%47%28%25%

Ron DeSantis vs. generic Democrat

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size[b]		Margin
of error		Ron
DeSantis (R)		Generic
Democrat		Undecided
Clarity Campaign Labs (D)[264][J]July 26–31, 20222,244 (LV)± 2.1%48%43%9%
Data for Progress (D)[265][P]September 15–22, 2020620 (LV)± 3.9%42%44%14%

Ron DeSantis vs. Val Demings

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size[b]		Margin
of error		Ron
DeSantis (R)		Val
Demings (D)		Undecided
Cherry Communications (R)[257][F]April 30 – May 8, 2021602 (LV)± 4.0%53%38%–
Victory Insights (R)[148]May 4, 2021600 (RV)± 4.1%54%46%–

Results

[edit]
State house district results
State Senate district results
2022 Florida gubernatorial election[266][267]
PartyCandidateVotes%±%
RepublicanRon DeSantis (incumbent)
Jeanette Nuñez (incumbent)		4,614,21059.37%+9.78%
DemocraticCharlie Crist
Karla Hernandez		3,106,31339.97%−9.22%
IndependentCarmen Jackie Gimenez
Kyle "KC" Gibson		31,5770.41%N/A
LibertarianHector Roos
Jerry "Tub" Rorabaugh		19,2990.25%N/A
Total votes7,771,399100.0%N/A
Turnout7,796,91653.76%
Registered electors14,503,978
Republicanhold

By county

[edit]
By county
CountyRon DeSantis
Republican		Charlie Crist
Democratic		Other votesTotal
votes
%#%#%#
Alachua42.04%40,32157.14%54,7960.82%78495,901
Baker89.45%9,59410.18%1,0920.37%4110,725
Bay78.38%52,59021.00%14,0910.61%41267,093
Bradford81.29%8,34618.04%1,8520.67%6910,267
Brevard63.77%170,56235.57%95,1310.66%1,760267,453
Broward41.97%251,23857.35%343,2860.68%4,083598,607
Calhoun86.04%4,18013.52%6570.43%214,858
Charlotte70.52%65,47329.11%27,0310.37%34492,848
Citrus74.23%56,28325.19%19,1000.58%44375,826
Clay74.67%67,29224.62%22,1870.71%64090,119
Collier71.74%117,47727.98%45,8150.29%467163,759
Columbia79.19%18,79020.18%4,7890.62%14823,727
DeSoto76.28%6,63723.25%2,0230.47%418,701
Dixie87.30%5,39411.90%7350.81%506,179
Duval55.44%182,56943.68%143,8370.88%2,913329,319
Escambia64.46%74,60834.63%40,0760.91%1,053115,737
Flagler66.76%39,18332.67%19,1770.57%33658,696
Franklin73.56%4,00325.84%1,4060.61%335,442
Gadsden37.36%6,51162.01%10,8050.63%11017,426
Gilchrist86.50%6,80612.93%1,0170.57%457,868
Glades80.73%3,09118.83%7210.44%173,829
Gulf80.16%5,15019.41%1,2470.44%286,425
Hamilton73.26%3,14526.09%1,1200.65%284,293
Hardee82.33%4,55817.14%9490.52%295,536
Hendry74.25%6,13424.84%2,0520.91%758,261
Hernando69.95%56,22829.47%23,6890.58%46880,385
Highlands74.12%29,51825.09%9,9940.79%31339,825
Hillsborough54.17%261,93644.95%217,3490.87%4,229483,514
Holmes91.62%6,2147.86%5330.52%356,782
Indian River67.53%52,26931.97%24,7440.50%38777,400
Jackson76.03%12,41223.49%3,8350.48%7916,326
Jefferson60.47%4,31038.95%2,7760.58%417,127
Lafayette89.68%2,61710.08%2940.24%72,918
Lake66.54%106,57832.83%52,5790.63%1,003160,160
Lee68.79%189,33530.79%84,7390.42%1,165275,239
Leon41.82%49,24457.35%67,5350.83%972117,751
Levy78.42%14,04920.98%3,7580.60%10717,914
Liberty85.36%2,34514.18%3710.46%122,617
Madison66.77%4,66132.85%2,2930.39%276,981
Manatee64.70%111,10934.82%59,8010.48%820171,730
Marion69.23%108,02730.20%47,1290.57%894156,050
Martin69.01%53,59530.58%23,7480.42%32477,667
Miami-Dade55.28%393,53243.97%312,9720.75%5,347711,851
Monroe60.23%20,47939.15%13,3140.62%21134,004
Nassau76.52%36,55122.97%10,9730.50%24047,764
Okaloosa76.18%61,71522.92%18,5690.89%72481,008
Okeechobee80.34%8,74619.10%2,0790.56%6110,886
Orange46.08%187,65353.10%216,2210.82%3,356407,230
Osceola52.84%54,33046.09%47,3871.08%1,108102,825
Palm Beach51.21%278,45448.30%262,6550.49%2,679543,788
Pasco65.82%148,08333.49%75,3420.69%1,555224,980
Pinellas54.61%231,28444.76%189,5630.63%2,647423,494
Polk64.45%148,25434.85%80,1720.69%1,591230,017
Putnam76.02%20,21723.30%6,1960.68%18026,593
Santa Rosa79.38%60,09119.94%15,0960.68%51175,698
Sarasota60.92%133,35438.65%84,6140.42%929218,897
Seminole55.78%102,19143.48%79,6640.73%1,346183,201
St. Johns69.87%101,06629.64%42,8730.49%715144,654
St. Lucie59.31%72,35440.17%49,0090.52%630121,993
Sumter73.21%65,49626.51%23,7180.28%25089,464
Suwannee83.39%13,64916.19%2,6500.42%6816,367
Taylor82.76%6,30816.74%1,2760.50%387,622
Union87.65%3,99511.94%5440.42%194,558
Volusia63.99%144,76835.34%79,9650.67%1,513226,246
Wakulla73.25%11,03326.02%3,9200.73%11015,063
Walton82.08%28,64717.51%6,1120.41%14234,901
Washington85.32%7,78614.08%1,2850.60%559,126

Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican

Swing by county
Legend
  •   Democratic — +12.5-15%
  •   Democratic — +10-12.5%
  •   Democratic — +7.5-10%
  •   Democratic — +5-7.5%
  •   Democratic — +2.5-5%
  •   Democratic — +0-2.5%
  •   Republican — +0-2.5%
  •   Republican — +2.5-5%
  •   Republican — +5-7.5%
  •   Republican — +7.5-10%
  •   Republican — +10-12.5%
  •   Republican — +12.5-15%
  •   Republican — +>15%
Trend by county
Legend
  •   Democratic — +12.5-15%
  •   Democratic — +10-12.5%
  •   Democratic — +7.5-10%
  •   Democratic — +5-7.5%
  •   Democratic — +2.5-5%
  •   Democratic — +0-2.5%
  •   Republican — +0-2.5%
  •   Republican — +2.5-5%
  •   Republican — +5-7.5%
  •   Republican — +7.5-10%
  •   Republican — +10-12.5%
  •   Republican — +12.5-15%
  •   Republican — +>15%
County flips
Legend

  • Democratic

      Hold

    Republican

      Hold
      Gain from Democratic

By congressional district

[edit]

DeSantis won 22 of 28 congressional districts, including two that elected Democrats.[268]

DistrictDeSantisCristRepresentative
1st73%26%Matt Gaetz
2nd62%38%Neal Dunn
3rd64%35%Kat Cammack
4th60%39%Aaron Bean
5th65%34%John Rutherford
6th68%31%Mike Waltz
7th60%39%Stephanie Murphy (117th Congress)
Cory Mills (118th Congress)
8th65%35%Bill Posey
9th50%49%Darren Soto
10th41%58%Val Demings (117th Congress)
Maxwell Frost (118th Congress)
11th63%37%Daniel Webster
12th69%30%Gus Bilirakis
13th58%41%Anna Paulina Luna
14th47%52%Kathy Castor
15th59%40%Laurel Lee
16th61%38%Vern Buchanan
17th64%35%Greg Steube
18th69%30%Scott Franklin
19th69%30%Byron Donalds
20th30%69%Sheila Cherfilus-McCormick
21st62%37%Brian Mast
22nd48%51%Lois Frankel
23rd50%49%Jared Moskowitz
24th31%68%Frederica Wilson
25th47%52%Debbie Wasserman Schultz
26th70%29%Mario Díaz-Balart
27th58%41%María Elvira Salazar
28th64%36%Carlos A. Giménez

Analysis

[edit]

According toexit polls, DeSantis won 65% ofWhite voters, 13% ofBlack voters, and 58% ofLatinos; of the latter group, DeSantis won 69% ofCubans and 56% ofPuerto Ricans.[269] DeSantis' large margin of victory was in part due to him flipping Democratic strongholdMiami-Dade County for the first time since2002, andPalm Beach County for the first time since1986, as well as winningHillsborough,Osceola,Pinellas, andSt. Lucie counties for the first time since2006; this was also the first gubernatorial election since 2006 in which a candidate received over 50% of the vote. His near 20% margin of victory was the largest since1982 and the largest for a Republican in state history. It was also the first time the governorship was won by double digits since 2002, and the first time it was won by over one million votes.

Significantly, Crist's 40% performance was the worst for a Democratic nominee for governor of Florida since1916. Republicans won the other statewide races by double digits; this is the first time since the end ofReconstruction that Democrats do not hold at least one of the statewide positions. DeSantis also made large gains among Hispanic voters, becoming the first Republican in decades to win a majority of those voters.[269][270] He also had a major fundraising advantage over Crist, setting an all-time record for a gubernatorial candidate.[271]

Voter demographics

[edit]
Edison Research exit poll
Demographic subgroupCristDeSantis% of
voters
Gender
Men356449
Women465351
Age
18–24 years old54447
25–29 years old56414
30–39 years old524713
40–49 years old386012
50–64 years old366332
65 and older366432
Race
White346564
Black861311
Latino405821
Race by gender
White men277232
White women405832
Black men81195
Black women9196
Latino men415710
Latina women396011
Education
High school or less336715
Somecollege education415825
Associate degree405919
Bachelor's degree435624
Advanced degree445517
Party ID
Democrats95528
Republicans29742
Independents455330
Ideology
Liberals901020
Moderates534539
Conservatives69442
Marital status
Married386259
Unmarried505041
Gender by marital status
Married men326830
Married women445529
Unmarried men495118
Unmarried women504923
First-time midterm election voter
Yes415911
No435789
Most important issue facing the country
Crime356310
Inflation267439
Gun policy623610
Immigration128810
Abortion801924
Area type
Urban435646
Suburban405844
Rural307010
Source:CNN[272]

See also

[edit]

Notes

[edit]
  1. ^Calculated by taking the difference of 100% and all other candidates combined.
  2. ^abcdefKey:
    A – all adults
    RV – registered voters
    LV – likely voters
    V – unclear
  3. ^Daniel with 4%; Willis with 1%
  4. ^Freeman with 4%; "Someone Else" with 3%; Lionheart with 1%
  5. ^17% forVal Demings
  6. ^Calculated by taking the difference of 100% and all other candidates combined.
  7. ^"Some other candidate" with 2%
  8. ^Gimenez (I) with 1%; Roos (L) with 1%
  9. ^Roos (L) with 3%; "Other" with 1%
  10. ^"Someone else" with 1%
  11. ^"Another candidate" with 1%
  12. ^"Someone else" with 1%; "Refused" with 1%
  13. ^Gimenez (I) with 1%; Roos (L) with <1%
  14. ^"Someone else" with 4%
  15. ^"Another candidate" with 1%; "Not going to vote" with 1%
  16. ^"Someone else" with 1%
  17. ^Roos (L) with 1%; Gimenez (I) with 3%; "Refused" with 1%

Partisan clients

  1. ^abcdPoll sponsored by Crist's campaign
  2. ^abcdPoll sponsored by Fried's campaign
  3. ^Poll sponsored by Floridians For Economic Advancement
  4. ^Poll sponsored by Taddeo's campaign committee
  5. ^abPoll sponsored byWOFL-TV
  6. ^abcdefghPoll sponsored by theFlorida Chamber of Commerce
  7. ^Poll conducted for theRose Institute of State and Local Government
  8. ^Poll conducted for Tripp Scott, a law firm associated with theFlorida Republican Party
  9. ^Poll conducted for Local Progress Impact Lab
  10. ^abcdePoll sponsored by Progress Florida and Florida Watch
  11. ^Poll sponsored by Center Street PAC, which opposes DeSantis
  12. ^Poll sponsored by theDemocratic Governors Association
  13. ^Poll conducted for an undisclosed Republican client
  14. ^abPoll sponsored by Americas PAC
  15. ^abPoll sponsored by Future Majority
  16. ^Poll sponsored by the Defend Students Action Fund

References

[edit]
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